Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

So, first steps of free agency. No draft picks to watch, so this is the whole show for us.

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We signed a non-pass-rusher DL, Jamie Hernandez. I am thin at LB already, and I'm arguably overpaying a guy at DT. This guy could certainly fit into either spot, with some weight change (not sure what he's open to there). So, he's my standard no-bonus, "team option" player - fits our chem scheme, and could possibly stick if certain other things don't click.

We do some renegotiations, but LB Shaw and CB Herndon, both priority guys to lock up, are going to take more $ than I had hoped.

On the list of pending offers, BAL is only showing up as pursuing cheapo players, befitting our cap situation. At this point, part of a "go for it" plan would be, as a benefit maximizer, that I want big affinities from pretty much every inactive player. So, I'm looking around for guys who can fit that bill, at least for one season. No skills necessarily, no upward trajectory, just play tiddlywinks with the guys.

[Chas in Cinti]

Man... the $$$ inflation would have my brain flip-flopped... but of course if I had been playing the whole time I guess I would have adjusted as I played...

[QuikSand]

Yeah, it's tough, especially while playing in multiple leagues that are each at their own pace. Best tool out there, in BELCo leagues, is the Biggest Cap Hits page. I confess I don't use it a ton, but it's a pretty useful reality check on what makes sense as an offer to top-tier players and then on down from there.

The lingering weirdness there is that some contracts are negotiated with the AI as extensions, and some are result of human-and-AI free agency bidding, two different animals. But I've said my piece on that plenty of times - the right way to play this game multi-player is definitely with a meaningful cap crunch.

[QuikSand]

So, in free agency, we are outbid bu Houston for WR Dustin Foreman. I had put in a solid 1yr offer, but got bombed out of the water by a motivated buyer - and I knew this could happen.

So, we lose cohesion (a lot), but we shouldn't really lose much in productivity. He posted 1600 yards past season, but we have guys well suited to the WR1 and WR2 roles on the roster already - Foreman was likely slipping to WR3 this season, regardless. And, he was affinity neutral, so I'm not losing there - likely gaining, actually.

This makes our cap situation more flexible for this season, too. So, all told, I wanted him back, but wasn't willing to break the bank to do it - and someone else was, relatively speaking. So it goes.

WR setup this year looks like:

FL Xavier Guthrie - will move to slot in 11 formation

SE Mercury Bailey

Rotation below them to include Luther Spencer and Kody Lofton

I will re-up with Spencer, who's a great fit for us - strong cohesion fit, and great special teams player. So, if I consider Spencer and Foreman contenders for one roster spot (probable) then losing Foreman effectively improves both our chemistry and special teams. I think we'll be okay.

[QuikSand]

p.s. Look to draft X Guthrie pretty highly in your fantasy GML teams this season. I mean, he won't put up Jeremessiah numbers, but I would expect 1500+ and 10+ TD.

[QuikSand]

New at offensive tackle.

We re-sign Quentin Darche. He is nothing special, but he's a huge chemistry asset, still has a little bit of skill left, and gives us a bit of cohesion (upended by his stint away from our team when he wanted phat loot). Not thrilled, but he plugs in as this year's RT, for lack of another good option in free agency.

On a parallel track, I made a minor trade- next year's 4th rounder to land a young good-fit, decent-enough OT, Jerry Pichietti. He was on my radar in last year's draft as a chemistry fit, but went in round two. He faded a bit in ratings, so he's almost certainly nothing special, but on this team a chemistry-positive guy at a tough-to-fill position who's likely going to end up good enough to play at RT... that has value to me. Only 13 personality, so maybe not a long-term anchor guy, but I wouldn't be shocked if this guy is a cheap-enough-to-resign guy who could start for us next year at RT and be with us for 6-10 years.

[QuikSand]

So, nothing big afoot. I am signing a few guys along the D7 with the possibility of shifting our chem leader there this year. I'm just really thin at LB, and we will at best be a wide-but-thin affinity bunch this year. If I could get a stronger leader to connect with a decent subset of the roster there, maybe that balances out to roughly the same thing - but gets me one or two extra playable bodies at LB. That's got to happen over time, I just don't have a perfect guy to do it around quite yet. So, we signed a no-bonus veteran DT from the 8-9 group who might be our leader (personality 64 meh) this year if he sticks. Or he might be a fit with a new 11-12 leader, if that pans out. Don't know. We have two 7-8 leader guys on the current roster, that's the fallback (and I'd have to decide on affinity versus talent there). It happens.

Ben's Falcons signed my former top-rated TE. I didn't even try. He paid him $26m/yr, I just don't have that sort of cap room this year. TE is going to be a weak spot for us, I reckon.

[QuikSand]

Oh, I should note that DE Rico Rison has re-signed, he'll lock in long term as our anchor pass rusher. That's a major reaosn why we are cap-strapped, this is the overlap year. I don't often so fat deals for only 3 years, but he was a position-switch-and-hope guy, and I didn't want to get tied up too long in case he was too light to be effective at DE. Turns out (36 sacks in two seasons) that's not a worry, so he gets to retire with us, hopefully. I trade blocked him, but got no offers at all - standard in this league that has a lot of free agents and cap space.

However, it looks like I won't/can't re-up with RB Phelps. Hard to tell if he's really good (and irreplaceable?, cue Beyonce) or if he's just the product of a system. I don't know. He wants to be paid like the 1,600 yard guy he's turned into, and I don't blame him for that... but what is a 5th year pretty good RB worth? I got him in the 5th round of the draft... could I replace him and his production that easily?

My best guess is we let him walk, he sits in free agency along with a fleet of similar veteran guys, and we try to get him back but if not, we just plunge another youngster into the job and hope for the best. It's not like some positions that are just difficult to fill - "RBs don't matter."

[QuikSand]

Grr, forum logged me out after I typed up a lengthy post.

Short version here:

-signed lots of undrafted rookies, and camp legs, roster up to 70 for training camp... tough year to make the team, as we will try to max out chemistry from the bench as we "go for it"

-need to sort out D7 chemistry, with several not-perfect guys on the roster as potential group leaders... we can have a weak 7-8 leader, or a better guy at 8-9 or 11-12, but with less than full buy-in from the group... so it goes

[QuikSand]

So... sent in my regular season file. Shoudl run today, I gather the Commissioner is feeling under the weather. Or, perhaps he is re-simming the CCFL Championship game over and over to reach the desired outcome. Who among us could say?

Anyway... I'm using young WR Bailey in the slot, which should bump up his targets - I need him to be a value added this season, so better than 8 ypt. I'm fairly optimistic about the season - we need the pass rush to improve, and I'm really counting on another youngster in DE Ramon Tuholski - he probably needs to jump from a 6 PR% guy to a 9 PR% guy, to be the full complement we need across from star edge Rison. The rest of the defense is status quo - decent at LB, strong at DB, we should be okay, hopefully a click better than average.

I'm shooting for a bye week. Without it, I doubt we are good enough to win it all. I give us maybe a 30-40% chance to earn the bye this year - the conference is tough, but we're among the reasons why.

[QuikSand]

Good news is - we got out bye, we're 12-4 and the 2 seed.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2103

WR Bailey might be a fraud - only 6.1 ypt, that's not good enough for a key starter, much less for a mortgage-the-present guy to take at 1.1. Ugh.

Pass rush probably made the season work - Tuholski with 13.5 sacks, Rison with 9.5, and we're #2 overall with a 24.2% team PR%, that's good. We allow only 7.45 ypa, a by product of the good rush and solid coverage players. 12-4 and +11.5 ppg with only a +1 in turnover margin is fundamentally sound. I'm pleased.

We've got a shot.

[QuikSand]

Side note, but related:

I recognize my overall standing in the FOF MP community- I was once arguably the 2nd best player out there. Over time, people have definitely outpaced me in drafting and gameplanning, and I no longer have any such claim. I'm smart and pretty decent at everything, but I'm either too lazy or too thick-headed to do some of the more rigorous analysis needed to really crack the codes. I'm good with that, I build my teams my own way to fit my own systems, and I'm regularly above average.

I don't even get a glimpse at a "grand slam" across four leagues. Today might be the closest I will get to that.

My Ravens won the CCFL today, hooray Fun story there, I lucked into a really good young QB with a mid-round draft pick, thought I had a "window," watched him inexplicably retire after 3 years, and then won it two years later with a caretaker QB signed just to hold down the fort for a veteran, high-chemistry team.

Meanwhile, here, my Ravens are a bye week team. It's not totally out of the question we could win this thing here tomorrow. I'm not calling the shot, but I built the team in "go for it right now" mode, as our QB will leave after this season. So... today is probably my best "I can see the win from here" moment.

Also today, my other two teams are in good, thought not great, shape. My IHOF Chesapeake Chitterlings are tied for the division lead, and are an outside contender to get stuff done in the playoffs, especially after our main recent division rival lost his QB.

Finally, my CFL Arizona Cardinals come off a second straight division title (beating Ben, who runs San Fran) and should be among the league's second or third tier of contenders in the year ahead. That's a slow-moving league, so CCFL will likely have crowned a new champ before they finish week 8, but still - right now, I'm maybe 8th or 10th in the league power rankings, all told (last year we played to 10-6 without my WR1, he's back healthy now, we hope).

I'm not going to get the Grand Slam. But I can talk today about all four of my teams in terms of their chances to win it all, rather than just whether we might be able to eke out a postseason berth.

[Comey]

How many times has the Grand Slam occurred? If never, who has gotten the closest?

[QuikSand]

I think Ben and I have gotten into some back and forth about this, I don't recall if he ever held the four titles at once. (The old FOFL might have been in the fold before the CFL... or maybe Ben's older league, the...uhhh...SomethingFL where he had the Lowcountry Gators and I had the Hawk Mountain Sharpshins).

I think I had one legitimately close call years ago - like two in the bag, one in play, and another one where I was a contender but the timing didn't work out.

[QuikSand]

Hey How Bout That!

So, in my first (ever?) announced "go for it right now" season, we get a title. Yay.

Haven't looked at any details yet, just opened things up after a long travel day to Maui. Tough life, I know.

Well, I guess I'll make that a double colada, now that I think about it.

[QuikSand]

...so, we're done with the "go for it" year that worked. Now onward.

(note: tipsy as I type)

First decision for this offseason: are we IN again this year? QB Gelenaw did not retire, he's out there. I'd have to beat AVAILABLE but I'm guessing that's it. Make sense?

Quick reality check. I've got $150m in cap space. Gelenaw wants $72, RB Phelps wants $36m.

[QuikSand]

So, I have sent in the first FA file. Gelenaw is up right away, Phelps a stage later. So, I get to stagger the two big, obvious decisions. With both these guys, I know more or less what AVAILABLE might offer (will Gelenaw even get an offer?) but I don't know what else might happen. We could lose Gelenaw to a strategic cohesion-breaker bid, so how much do I bid to get him. I am making an offer- we'll see if it lands.

I have a few ways to sort out our D7 chemistry - it would be ideal to do that early so I can plan around it (i.e. what sign is the long-term leader coming from?). We'll see.

Past that, lots of guys to try to re-sign... and either we will have a lot or not much free cap space to spend, depending in the big QB/RB decisions early.

[QuikSand]

Gelenaw only gets one other offer than mine, but it's for a good deal more (from AVAILABLE) and he's gone. Probably the end of this era for us. I guess I could have seen this coming, and could have bid another $15-20m to keep him for this year. Ah, regrets.

[QuikSand]

So, our presumed starter for this season is Wayne Henson. Not a mobility guy, really - but he ought to be... adequate? The low agility is a worry for short stuff... he's a fill-in, pretty obviously. (I messed things up with another semi-promising QB last offseason, so he's now stocking shelves at a Piggly Wiggly somewhere)

[QuikSand]

In other news, not as headliner-y as the QB shake-up, I have likely solved my D7 chemistry woes for the long-ish term. New DT Owen McLeon is not only good enough to start at either DT or DE, but he's a solid chemistry leader for us in the 7-8 group, meaning the structure we had built for many years will continue. That's a good turn for us. Only 78 personality is a bit lower than I prefer, but we'll take it. He's a 5th year guy, already the chem leader, and we'll build with confidence from the 8-9 and 11-12 groups now.

[QuikSand]

I still go pass rusher with my first pick... DT Ramon Calhoun. He's heavy, so likely has to play at DT... that should make us 5-deep for the foreseeable future, so I'm set there for a while. Had been eyeing a decent WR, but he went with pick 31... so it goes.

[QuikSand]

So, we do the obvious, and re-sign RB Phelps. I have had so much trouble getting consistent production from the position, I feel I need to keep him while I have him, rather than just hope I can replace him younger.

I also bring in a "camp arm" - but don't get too excited. Brody Van Pelt is a 16th year guy, decent affinity fit, and has been a so-so player through his career. Just giving him a look, I still make him an underdog to land a roster slot.

Round 2 draft pick coming soon, and I sense a "reach for a LB" play from us - need position, and I don't love the top fits out there for us at OT or TE, the other two slots I would have hoped for a plug-and-play guy.

[QuikSand]

Okay, wrapping up the regular season file for this year. Interesting decision at QB... I think I will end up going with the 16th year veteran, who seems more stable for a one year "go for it again" approach. Still pissed that I let Gelenaw scramble away to AVAILABLE. Alas.

At WR, I'm just going to lean on Guthrie more, sadly. I hope my young "star" Bailey has his breakthrough season now, but I'm putting Guthrie into the 11 slot, where we target a lot of passes. Bailey just didn't make big plays there last year, Guthrie should. Maybe he becomes an 1,800 yard guy this year.

On defense, DE Rison took a ratings hit - seems like age, but that drops him from Grade A closer to Grade B+. Still solid, but probably not a 20-sack threat any longer.

I'm getting a few younger OL slotted into the lineup - that erodes cohesion, but should help set us up for chemistry long term, and actually puts better bars onto the field. We'll see.

I don't think this is a championship team. I think it's a 9-10 win team that has a shot to exceed expectations mostly due to our special sauces.

[QuikSand]

We're rated a top team by the BELCo algorithm... that factors in overall roster quality, cohesion, special teams (where, incidentally, we are leaguewide standouts by design... though I have not really emphasized that in this thread). Not chemistry, though, where we are also standouts.

If this fill-in QB is actually pretty good, we might be sneaky successful.

[QuikSand]

Yup, 10-6, division winner but not a bye team. Sounds about right.

QB Van Pelt was...fine. Only 30/22 ratio not great, but 7.5 ypa is fine. Guthrie had 1,300+ yards and 13 TDs, and RB Phelps put up nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Line was apparently okay, offense was a click down but not three clicks down.

DE Tuholski again led the pass rush, which overall was 2nd highest in the league - that's what I want. Really few turnovers - we were -7 on turnover ratio, that's not good for a supposedly contenting team.

Solid season, we're not good enough to really worry the top tier, including the 7,000+ passing yard Chiefs at 16-0. The FOF game has pretty clearly been "solved" beyond readability, and apparently a well-assembled all-pass attack is more or less unstoppable. It's creeping up and taking over MP leagues. I don't really possess the key to that scheme, so I'll keep plugging away with kumbayas, but it's a losing fight.

[QuikSand]

Team Summary: GML: Baltimore Ravens 2104

[QuikSand]

Fun fact... it doesn't show up on Ben's summary page, but my backup QB managed to catch two passes this season for 41 yards on zero targets. So, that's cool. Infinite ypt for the win.

[QuikSand]

Heh, just noticed that my top two QBs both wen to Maryland. Go Terps!

[QuikSand]

We're one and out losing at home, and watch the league's top two teams go at it in the finals. Perennial power Arizona nips the 16-0 Chiefs for the title.

QB Gelenaw, by the way, became basically a replacement-level QB for StL, with a 14/7 ratio and pretty pedestrian rushing numbers. Sigh.

[Chas in Cinti]

Interested to see the plan for QB moving forward... Gelenaw sticking around for a possible reunion?

[QuikSand]

Both Gelenaw and Van Pelt retired. Our guy-in-wwiting had a ratings drop. I am in chemistry crisis at WR/TE and OL and DB. I might be "tear it down" time. I am evaluating my options, but this might be a tough couple of seasons ahead.

[QuikSand]

First stage of free agency, nothing to report. I missed out on a top-tier WR (no shock) but am miffed that only 3 teams even bothered to offer him. Nothing noteworthy here, either on the talent front or the chemistry front. Next stage should help us set expectations for the offseason more clearly.

First round draft - I buff up at WR, with a guy I hope can develop into a solid WR2/3 in Victor Lester. Had a DB I liked, but felt this was the more critical position for us, as chemistry may force us to shed a couple of receivers this offseason.

[QuikSand]

So, a mixed blessing here. I have, again, put together a complicated stage file for this league, and then managed to forget to send it. So, this morning I check my desktop and see a 15-line list of instructions for a still-in-progress file. So - all the stuff i wanted to do, including bid on a high-end free agent WR, never made it in.

The upside? Well, i would have missed out on the WR, almost certainly, AND I would have messed things up with a CB I really wanted. By not submitting the file, I got the CB, who will be the new chemistry anchor for the DB group for us, and likely either our CB1 or CB3 in most formations: Leroy Meadows

So, I guess that worked out okay. I put in a high bid for him in stage 2, and had planned to walk it back substantially for stage 3, but in not following through I managed to get him for $38m/yr. Other bids came in around that area, and my $32m (or whatever the lesser bid was) would not have held up.

With Meadows in place, our DB group is in pretty good shape for the long term, as I have him, CB1 Herndon (6th), CB2 Cooley (3rd), DB Wordehoff (2nd), and S2 Winslett (3rd) all ready to stick around for a long time. We should be able to sit back and co-heeze to our heart's content. Will obviously add quality where it pops up, but it's not a need position at all any longer. (I'm now glad I skipped a no-zone CB with my late 1st round pick)

[QuikSand]

So... where are we? Fair question. I think we are about to through a tough year... not an actual tank, but I just haven't found a QB who looks like a legit plug-in option for us. That's a tough position to just settle for a 24/27 guy with good cheistry and cohesion... but I fear that's exactly what we'll do. In another league this might set up for a quick free agent signing after the last round of cutdowns, but here that's not exactly on the table... it's a one-shot league.

So, the easiest thing for YOU to look at is my Roster Needs page.

My takeaways, by position group:

QB: treading water at best, awaiting a savior

RB: Phelps signed for 2yrs, we're ok here... rookie FB Austin likely can't make move to TE, so he might end up RB2

TE: Thomason will be TE1, Peters is being sacrificed to the chem gods as a center this year, and we will patch over... not good

WR: Guthrie a solid WR1, Bailey a still-shaky WR2, and 1st round rookie Lester has WR3 potential... we'll put KR/ST/WR Don O'Neil out there a good bit too. Group is good for now, future not looking great if Bailey is merely okay.

OL: Chem saved by position switch. C Castillo, RG Dielman, and LT Woolford are build-around guys. Hoping rookie T Brennan becomes a long term asset, and we've got decent options for the other G slot. Chemistry and cohesion should make this an above average unit this year and beyond.

DL: We re-signed DE Tuholski, he's the build around guy going forward. We're strong with veterans for now, Rison is tailing off but we have 5-deep in quality players. Solid.

LB: Shaw remains out best guy, but he'd fading and there's no youth on the way. Ripe for a top pick next year if no QB/skill options stand out. We're okay, but probably below average in pure talent.

DB: CB Meadows is now our CB1/2 and chem leader (82 pers good not great), a super-important FA signing. We have lost (just through attrition) our super-deep super-talented group that was our best overall position group for the last several years. Young guys who project to stick around are CB1 Cooley, CB3/4 Wordehoff, and hopefully S2 Winslett, whom I forgot to re-sign while a RFA, and now I need to beat the market (dumb dumb dumb). So, I'm pretty optimistic about the group long term, we should be fine here and not in protect-the-lead mode as often as we have gotten used to.


Overall, if we got into the season with either Henson (7th, 23/29) or Howard (2nd, 11/23) as our starting QB, it would be hard to forecast a winning season. But, a credible running game and good WR talent behind a strong OL... maybe we could eke out 9 wins. Maybe. Don't discount the effects of chemistry.

If we manage to make the QB position credible, then I think the team could be back into contender status in a couple seasons. I should have cap space (especially after Rison leaves) to make a move, so we could be well suited to do a late-career rent-a-QB deal to turn things legit quickly.

[QuikSand]

Dark horse contender to start this year... undrafted rookie QB Jimmie McDaniel

My scout's sneak peek gives him an 81 sense rush rating, and if I'm going to go with a low-talent player at QB, I at least want him to not be a sack machine. 85 Scr Frq suggests he might run around a bit, could be a plus. Downside is - he's super low-developed, and we don't have a mentor, so he could remain a single-digit overall rating guy even after a year as the starter. I'm on the fence, but it might be interesting actually building an offense around a "misfit toy."

In other news, I miss out on re-signing my young safety, Jerome Winslett. Just dumb on my part, forgot to put in his RFA contract offer, and my 6.8m got beat out by 7m. Of course it did. I deserve it.

[QuikSand]

I think I'm going with the rookie at QB. My veteran has a void in accuracy, and I feel that's just too much to overlook - we need our best players (at WR) to make plays, accuracy rating is too much a part of that to settle for a -20 or whatever. The rookie is underdeveloped, but he'll scramble and chuck it, I think. Hoping for a passer rating of 80 and 500 yards on the ground for him.

[QuikSand]

OK, preseason in the bag. A few notes:

-We signed a free agent QB mentor, intending to lock in the rookie at QB
-QB McDaniel obliged and bumped up 14 points - he's our guy (Henson -11)
-3rd round pick FB Austin made the switch to TE okay, looks 28/55 now
-1st round WR Lester looks like a decent WR2/3 guy... meh but okay
-2nd round T Brennan looks good, will start at RT or RG right away
-4th year free agent WR Lyons is going to get real targets this year

Nothing really noteworthy on defense. I'm missing the safety we let get away, but past that I think our group is solid, overall. Thin talent-wise at LB, but who cares.

Guessing our record... who knows? Rookie Qb boomed a bit, but he's likely due to throw 20+ interceptions and keep us from being truly effective. Maybe we're a 7-9 team with him at the helm? I think we're too talented overall to fall totally apart, so that sounds about right to me. Chance we're in the "lottery" zone of the top 5-8 picks... maybe 20%.

Let's see what they can do.

[Chas in Cinti]

To be honest... I'm looking forward to this season more than the last handful... Change is hard, but exciting... LOL

[Squirrel]

Very interested to see how you go with this QB, Quik.

Hadn't noticed your chemistry offense here is with he 2,4,6 group i.e. the yellow group. Accordingly your OL is low-intelligence as it would be with that group and so penalty-heavy.

I've done it with an established group 2 QB that I've built the chem around, mainly because I wanted to keep the cohesion, but not sure I'd do it with a new one - I'd want to find other chem groups first as I'm sure you would. I get the sense you were 50-50 on it i.e. stay with this and use the cohesion in the pass-catchers and OL vs rip it up and go another way...interesting to see how you deal with it.

Now you've found a QB that started well it's even less obvious what the best way to proceed is

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chas in Cinti

To be honest... I'm looking forward to this season more than the last handful... Change is hard, but exciting... LOL

same (as I type, I'm about to open the the results thread...)

[QuikSand]

Well, how bout that...

12-4 and a bye week

Honestly, are we just system now? Just a giant pile of tiddlywinks players who get along so well that we can't help but win? That's silly... my 7-9 guess was 100% sincere. Figured 1- wins was possible. Not 12.

So, takeaways:

QB McWhatever: solid, 7.19 ypa and a 29/17 ratio... 86 passer rating, 700 yds rushing with the same offense I used for Gelenaw

The running game was GREAT - Phelps churned out his 5.14 ypc and Mc? posted over 6 ypc.

Honestly, we weren't being carried by great receiver play - my fat paycheck guys (Guthrie 6.8 and Bailey 6.8) were both below the team average in yards per target... though their 18 TDs combined is part of the reason why I reckon

OL was... fine, maybe good. Cohesion and chemistry at work, I reckon.

Pass rush - Rison was back atop the sack numbers with 15, as we were the #1 team in PR%, that's what we want to see from that much talent up front.

Secondary - opponents got just over 6 yards per attempt against us, that's good, probably even better if extended out to yards per dropback... CB Meadows set the standard with 6 picks on a low-int team, traditionally

Yay. Good season. No clue how we'll fare against playoff rivals, but we're playing with house money at this point.

[QuikSand]

Okay, we hold serve with a good win over NE, but lose in the conf championship game against AVAILABLE's Titans.

We remain very happy with the season, obv.

[Chas in Cinti]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Okay, we hold serve with a good win over NE, but lose in the conf championship game against AVAILABLE's Titans.

We remain very happy with the season, obv.

How's the QB ratings change after the season... still moving up?

[QuikSand]

League scout saw Jimmy Mc at 4/26, growing to 9/40 after preseason last year

My scout rates him 16/39 now

screenshot: Screenshot, 2019-11-15 21:52:28 - Paste.Pics

Accuracy now up to 23/60, so that's fairly legit...

Honestly, he looks like your garden variety mid-round prospect who might grow into a QB2 role, to me... the SR and scrambling is nice but he's not a serious passer

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Squirrel

Hadn't noticed your chemistry offense here is with he 2,4,6 group i.e. the yellow group. Accordingly your OL is low-intelligence as it would be with that group and so penalty-heavy.

So, riffing further on chemistry - basically I only decided to with a 2-3, 4-5, 6-7 scheme because I was building around a QB who interested me in Gelenaw, and he was a 4-5 guy. But now I am so deeply committed to those groups at OL, it's really hard to just pull up stakes and change to a stronger group (like the 9-10, 12-1, 1-2 grouping). It wouldn't be too tough to do at WR now, with this team, as my two best assets are already in that grouping.

But honestly, I clearly have enough of a chem/coh core to work with, I can't see tearing it down now. I just pushed a few guys into starting roles this year to get them starts to activate chem effects (FB Lusignan, TE Austin, WR Richmond, T Brennan) that I feel like I have enough to build around here. I'll take whatever downside comes with this grouping, and go from here, I reckon.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I suspect this is a "next year" question more than this year... but we are going to have to face the question "do you pay Jimmy Mc?" There are two possible takeaways from this last season which send is in polar opposite directions-- either we got lucky and stumbled on a diamond in the rough with him, or we've got such an engine working right now that anyone could do a solid job here. In the real world, you'd pretty much have to pay him. Here, I think it's a pretty open question.

[QuikSand]

Offseason Notes:

Okay, first stage is ready to go. We were spared on the retirement side - just S Collins packed it up.

Roster reset: 42 players signed, $104m (about 16%) in cap space
RFA signees: CB Cooley ($7m), WR Haskell (min), QB Goodwin (min)
Need extensions: G Dielman ($20m), WR Guthrie? ($5m), T Woolford? ($20m)

Priorities for playing time:
-DB we are solid, but I'd like to add one quality player, ideally young S
(grumble grumble, I had the guy and let him get away)
-LB we are very old here, really want to add a long term starter
-RB Phelps is winding down, I'd like a successor or complement
-TE we are okay, but a guy to vault to obvious TE1 would be great

So, drafting at pick 29, my best guess is I'll be looking on defense for either a DB or LB with our first pick, unless there's a no brainer BPA. Of course, always open to steering off the trail for a skill position guy WR/QB who falls farther than expected. Last year that got us WR Victor Lester, who now looks like a long term WR3, and I passed on this no-zone CB who now looks like a tough piece to place on the board. We'll see.

With renegotiations and extensions pending, I don't think I will have the cap space to make any major moves in free agency - will always be looking for good high-chemistry fits here are there, but I doubt we will land any seriously big fish. If there's a $20m DB out there who can play for three years for us, that might be the ceiling effort.

time passes...

Okay, looks like in free agency I might find a veteran or two at DB/LB to help out, and that could free us up to be more flexible pursuing BPA in the early draft. That's fine. I really don't see a ton of free agents I want, so this might be an odd year when we only carry 55-60, instead of 65-70, into training camp.

[QuikSand]

Free agency opens - for us not with a bang, but a whimper. Three offers to RFAs all get rejected, and nobody signs. I am not targeting any of the serious big money guys out there - this is basically a maintenance year overall.

I have dealt T Jerry Picchietti for a 4th round pick this year. Young Roy Brennan showed me enough in his rookie year to believe he's a long term asset for us. Picchietti was on that list, but a chemistry shift worked against him, at least short term. For our OL, I have basically gone with "good enough" to fill in around the couple guys who are early/anchor caliber players, and to keep them a long time for cohesion and chemistry.

[QuikSand]

So, in free agency we land the guy who was our #1 target this offseason, DB Sammie Metzenbaum. I overpaid badly - he was asking for $8-9m. I gave him $17m, and nobody else went even close to that. I hate missing that badly. Regardless, I get an all-around DB who probably could play either CB or S, who fits our chemistry scheme (duh), and fills a fairly immediate need - I really wanted to add one quality player there. And as only a 5th year guy, he could stick around a long time. I'm glad to have him aboard.

We also got CB Doug Raymond, he was Plan B - he's on a cut-friendly deal, we'll see if he sticks.


With out first draft pick, I really tried to move down/out but couldn't get any takers. I end up with a good-looking fullback whom I hope can slide to play TE -- it's risky, but the OL I had been eyeing went a few picks ahead of us, and the DB I wanted came back "very overrated" and that spooked me. If this guy becomes a quality TE I'll be ok, but not thrilled, with the pick here.

[Izulde]

Just a note I'm still following. The chemistry approach has always fascinated me, though I pay literally no attention to it.