Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Ok, here's what I feel happened.

SnDvls is the cunning wolf, and that's the "transformation" st.cronin witnessed. The wolves attacked the Blessed, or more likely the Cursed last night, and for some reason the real Blessed (or for more obvious reasons the Cursed) does not want to step up -- maybe they have a grand scheme, so I'm not really going to question that.

Bottom line:

VOTE SNDVLS

I don't get this: if SnDvls isn't the blessed, and the blessed wasn't attacked, there would be no one to come forward to say they are blessed because they wouldn't know if they're blessed or not....so the "real" blessed couldn't stand up. There is also that possibility.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I don't get this: if SnDvls isn't the blessed, and the blessed wasn't attacked, there would be no one to come forward to say they are blessed because they wouldn't know if they're blessed or not....so the "real" blessed couldn't stand up. There is also that possibility.

Doh, right.

SnDvls defense here just smacks of wolf trying to play the sympathy card ("it's going to suck dying by a bogus PM"), and I'm not buying into it.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I don't get this: if SnDvls isn't the blessed, and the blessed wasn't attacked, there would be no one to come forward to say they are blessed because they wouldn't know if they're blessed or not....so the "real" blessed couldn't stand up. There is also that possibility.

there is no other blessed. I'm the blessed. I've admitted I was attacked. I don't know by who, but St. C seems to know I was attacked, he was on late last night after the night roles and quickly posted a fake PM to get in the early line that I was bad. The attack failed last night, the wolves are fighting to get another villager since the attack on me failed. St. C just didn't read the witness role correctly and now is trying to pass it off as such. No one was killed no witness.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I don't get this: if SnDvls isn't the blessed, and the blessed wasn't attacked, there would be no one to come forward to say they are blessed because they wouldn't know if they're blessed or not....so the "real" blessed couldn't stand up. There is also that possibility.

Well the thing is if no one is willing to step and say they're blessed, and St. Cronin is telling the truth, then the only other scenario I can think of that fits the description is that the wolves got a cursed person. So even IF sndvls is lying today and is a wolf we're not all that better off than we were after our lynch yesterday.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

this game is fun

And just think, its only day 2!

[Blade6119]

Here are the the scenarios i see right now:

1.Cronin is the witness, saw sundvls turn into a warewolf and attack someone...with no blessed person coming forward, they hit a cursed and we now have one more wolf

2.Sundvls was blessed and got attacked, cronin knew sun was out, either by atatcking him or being the witness...if hes the witness though, that leads back to #1.

3.Their both warewolfs trying to get one or the other cleared

Any other situations anyone sees? I think #1 is the most likely, due to the PM, whether or not others got to see it he paraphrased it anyways...you can draw your own conclusions

[Raiders Army]

Very true. I guess we'll find out tonight.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Ok, here's what I feel happened.

SnDvls is the cunning wolf, and that's the "transformation" st.cronin witnessed. The wolves attacked the Blessed, or more likely the Cursed last night, and for some reason the real Blessed (or for more obvious reasons the Cursed) does not want to step up -- maybe they have a grand scheme, so I'm not really going to question that.

Bottom line:

VOTE SNDVLS

Hey also, you're on my "suspicious" list since you're editing your posts. Forgot to put that in there in my other post.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Doh, right.

SnDvls defense here just smacks of wolf trying to play the sympathy card ("it's going to suck dying by a bogus PM"), and I'm not buying into it.

did you read it? so what are you basing your vote on? Blade comfirming a fake PM?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Here are the the scenarios i see right now:

1.Cronin is the witness, saw sundvls turn into a warewolf and attack someone...with no blessed person coming forward, they hit a cursed and we now have one more wolf

2.Sundvls was blessed and got attacked, cronin knew sun was out, either by atatcking him or being the witness...if hes the witness though, that leads back to #1.

3.Their both warewolfs trying to get one or the other cleared

Any other situations anyone sees? I think #1 is the most likely, due to the PM, whether or not others got to see it he paraphrased it anyways...you can draw your own conclusions

how convinent for you to leave out if St. C was a wolf in #2 where it leads. you are the only one who can "back" the fake PM. and now you leave this out too! SOMETHINGS WRONG HERE!

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

did you read it? so what are you basing your vote on? Blade comfirming a fake PM?

If neon oks it since a few(at least me) have already seen it, he can repost it for ya im sure...i dont know it was real, i just said it seemed to me to sound like a neon PM...ive gotten ones from him in past games it it was similar...ive never been the witness though so i cant say if it fit that mold, i just had to draw my own conlcusions...no one has to believe me, and prob. better they dont if cronin is lying so other villagers besides myself dont die from the backlash

[SnDvls]

well my wife and daughter are home so it's time for dinner. hopefully I'll be back later tonight.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

how convinent for you to leave out if St. C was a wolf in #2 where it leads. you are the only one who can "back" the fake PM. and now you leave this out too! SOMETHINGS WRONG HERE!

READ THE DAMN WRITING!!! I said either he was the attacker or witness....ATTACKER MEANS WOLF!!!! Bloody hell, read what i write

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

If neon oks it since a few(at least me) have already seen it, he can repost it for ya im sure...i dont know it was real, i just said it seemed to me to sound like a neon PM...ive gotten ones from him in past games it it was similar...ive never been the witness though so i cant say if it fit that mold, i just had to draw my own conlcusions...no one has to believe me, and prob. better they dont if cronin is lying so other villagers besides myself dont die from the backlash

did you post a fake PM from you friend in a previous WW game and get him killed as an innocent too? is this your M.O. as a bad guy to work up fake PM's and run with it?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

how convinent for you to leave out if St. C was a wolf in #2 where it leads. you are the only one who can "back" the fake PM. and now you leave this out too! SOMETHINGS WRONG HERE!

I tried to make a case for you and was actually leaning toward you untill Blade brought up the PM. I just don't see a wolf faking a PM and then deleteing it on day 2. Sorry man, but in your death we will all see that you were nothing more than a normal villager....but we'll all know you were indeed the cunning wolf.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

did you post a fake PM from you friend in a previous WW game and get him killed as an innocent too? is this your M.O. as a bad guy to work up fake PM's and run with it?

It actually was a real PM, he confirmed he sent it...dont make crap up

[Poli]

I'm still down with my sndvls vote.

[pennywisesb]

I think SnDvls has reached complete panic mode and thats why he's getting so upset. I agree with Dubb on this one, I think once we lynch him, he'll look like a normal villager to all of us, but will have indeed been the cunning wolf.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

3.Their both warewolfs trying to get one or the other cleared

Boy this is quite an intersting ploy I didn't even consider. It would fit with a cursed having become a werewolf as well. Since the wolves got an additional wolf perhaps they figured by getting one of their own cleared they would be able to gain a large upperhand.

[Raiders Army]

How cunning.

[Poli]

Smells like that darn Ship game, if you ask me.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

How cunning.

LMAO

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Boy this is quite an intersting ploy I didn't even consider. It would fit with a cursed having become a werewolf as well. Since the wolves got an additional wolf perhaps they figured by getting one of their own cleared they would be able to gain a large upperhand.

I don't think this makes any sense; when I first came forward as a witness, neither SnDvls nor me was much of a suspect. I don't think anybody was, really. This scenario would only make sense if we were BOTH suspects, but I don't think ANYBODY had suggested ME as a suspect.

Although it's possible I'm misunderstanding you.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't think this makes any sense; when I first came forward as a witness, neither SnDvls nor me was much of a suspect. I don't think anybody was, really. This scenario would only make sense if we were BOTH suspects, but I don't think ANYBODY had suggested ME as a suspect.

Although it's possible I'm misunderstanding you.

That's why it would work. You do this early in the game, one of you goes down but the overall number of wolves doesn't change. Furthermore, either your or SnDvls, depending on who passes the lynch vote unharmed, are pretty much cleared when the lynch happens and the person is discovered to be a wolf.

Now I'm not saying that this is what happened, as it seems like a bit of a long shot. But it would be one hell of a good strategy.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

But it would be one hell of a good strategy.

I disagree, because had I done nothing at all, the chances of lynching an actual wolf are less than even.

[hoopsguy]

Back - trying desperately to catch up on my reading before the deadline but I'm only up to Post #340 so have all of today's stuff to get through. I'll probably cut bait around 7:45 PM EST and work backwards to see where the vote is at and if there is a role I need to play in a close vote.

[pennywisesb]

Does anyone have a running tally on the votes for tonight?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I disagree, because had I done nothing at all, the chances of lynching an actual wolf are less than even.

FWIW, I think what Barkeep's trying to say is that it's not looking at today, but at votes down the road. A sacrifice of one wolf for complete trust in another is not a bad tradeoff.

The problem with this is that if the cursed wasn't hit last night, no one should have complete trust throughout the entire game.

This is also a strategy that has never been done before (that I know of). The wolves are so low in number that I don't think they would ever sacrifice one of their own, no matter the benefit...unless it was endgame.

[Neon_Chaos]

I'm starting to tally votes. Remember, deadline is at 8:00 PM EST, board time.

[Poli]

Ladies and gentlemen, our very own Jeff Probst.

[hoopsguy]

I'm up to about Post #440. Is there any kind of a race going on or is SunDvls the runaway leader? If that is the case then I'll stop speed-reading ...

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm up to about Post #440. Is there any kind of a race going on or is SunDvls the runaway leader? If that is the case then I'll stop speed-reading ...

Its pretty much SnDvls. But I'm also interested in a vote tally.

[Neon_Chaos]

Current vote count (with votes arranged by the order of voting per player):

SnDvls - st.cronin, SirFozzie, Blade6119, Barkeep49, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, pennywisesb, McSweeny, dubb93, RPI-Fan
RPI-Fan - SackAttack
st.cronin - SnDvls
No Votes - hoopsguy, kingfc22

[Blade6119]

Anyone else think Kings utter lack of participation is odd

[hoopsguy]

Vote SNDVLS

Yes, it amounts to a worthless bandwagon vote. But the vote also represents where my thoughts are after a rapid read through the posts. I don't think there is room for a villager vs villager conflict here. Which means that we are getting a one-to-one trade if St Cronin has pulled the wool over our eyes today. And a 1:1 trade still seems to have value at this point in the game.

The only point I haven't seen raised yet is if StC has conned us (I don't think this is the case) and there was a conversion last night (cursed) then we could potentially be in trouble:

Start:
13-3 Villager/Wolf
12-3 Lynch Herbalist
11-4 Conversion
10-4 St. Cronin with a very smooth con job
9-4 Wolf kill
9-3 Lynch StC
8-3 Wolf kill

All of these numbers assume that we are not seeing a double-death scenario with lovers. That is where I think our biggest danger is - we lynch a lover or a wolf bags two for the price of one. That will help them get down to the 1:1 ratio much faster.

Also, in the above scenario we don't have any more significant information on the wolves because we have accepted a trade-off of wolf/villager.

Bottom line - I hope that we are right on SnDvls as the cunning wolf or else we are really going to have our work cut out for us.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Anyone else think Kings utter lack of participation is odd

Yes, as well as all of the editing of posts.

[hoopsguy]

DOLA

VOTE SNDVLS

Just in case the VOTE needed to be in caps as well as the name (while bolded).

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Vote SNDVLS

Yes, it amounts to a worthless bandwagon vote. But the vote also represents where my thoughts are after a rapid read through the posts. I don't think there is room for a villager vs villager conflict here. Which means that we are getting a one-to-one trade if St Cronin has pulled the wool over our eyes today. And a 1:1 trade still seems to have value at this point in the game.

The only point I haven't seen raised yet is if StC has conned us (I don't think this is the case) and there was a conversion last night (cursed) then we could potentially be in trouble:

Start:
13-3 Villager/Wolf
12-3 Lynch Herbalist
11-4 Conversion
10-4 St. Cronin with a very smooth con job
9-4 Wolf kill
9-3 Lynch StC
8-3 Wolf kill

All of these numbers assume that we are not seeing a double-death scenario with lovers. That is where I think our biggest danger is - we lynch a lover or a wolf bags two for the price of one. That will help them get down to the 1:1 ratio much faster.

Also, in the above scenario we don't have any more significant information on the wolves because we have accepted a trade-off of wolf/villager.

Bottom line - I hope that we are right on SnDvls as the cunning wolf or else we are really going to have our work cut out for us.

Big question is if he comes up as villager do we take it as he was blessed or the cunning wolf?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Big question is if he comes up as villager do we take it as he was blessed or the cunning wolf?

I think he'd come up as "Blessed" if that's what he was.

[Neon_Chaos]

Ding ding ding.

Also, I'd like to remind everyone not to edit their posts. Unless it was a valid in-game reason. You don't want to be labelled as having "Blackaddared" yourself in a game, now, would you?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Ding ding ding.

Also, I'd like to remind everyone not to edit their posts. Unless it was a valid in-game reason. You don't want to be labelled as having "Blackaddared" yourself in a game, now, would you?

Guess this is directed a little bit at me, huh?

I just have to get out of the habit. I hate spelling and grammar errors, so I love to just go and fix them real quick. In addition, upon re-reading right after I post, I often see a thought I wanted to throw in there. Need to remember to just type it in a new post.

BTW, what did Blackadar do?

[Poli]

I think my vote may have been misplaced. I'm sure it's in there, somewhere.

[Neon_Chaos]

Votes: (edited to correct it, missed kingfc's and ardent's vote)
SnDvls - st.cronin, SirFozzie, kingfc22, ardent enthusiast, Blade6119, Barkeep49, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, pennywisesb, McSweeny, dubb93, RPI-Fan, hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - SackAttack
st.cronin - SnDvls


You gather around SnDvls, quite convinced that he is a werewolf. You grab him by the arms and start tying him up. He struggles, and starts to fight back. You feel him growing stronger! He turns himself into that which you fear the most! Of course, everyone starts running for their lives. Fortunately a noose has already been tied around his neck, and a couple of you manage to hoist the rope up a ledge. You pull, hard... and soon everyone joins in. SnDvls' wolf form is lifted from the ground, and you hear him whimper like a dog as he gasps for air. You leave him there as he thrashes about, and wait until he is no more.

SnDvls was a werewolf!

It is now Night (2), kindly send in your actions.

Player List:
SackAttack
st.cronin
kingfc22
Raiders Army
Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1.
hoopsguy
RPI-Fan
ardent enthusiast
pennywisesb
SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2
McSweeny
Mr. Wednesday
SirFozzie
dubb93
Barkeep49

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

BTW, what did Blackadar do?

Anyone would like to recall that wonderful childish tantrum 'adar pulled?

[st.cronin]

well, that comes as a surprise to me - i thought for sure he would be cunning ...

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Anyone would like to recall that wonderful childish tantrum 'adar pulled?

It was Blackaddar, wasn't it? Hmmm. I might have had my memory messed up a bit.

[hoopsguy]

Nice job, all!

Weird play by team wolf - why have the regular wolf as the executioner? The cunning wolf would create dissention. The brutal wolf would take someone with him.

Well, we no longer have a herbalist or a witness so the seer is of paramount importance now. I would urge whoever has this role to try and steer conversation towards a wolf without revealing your role. Blade, please make sure to add this to any quotes you might have suggesting that I'm trying to "out" the special villagers. Is that un-subtle enough?

If there are 3 (or more? general assumpion is that we started with 3) wolves then we still have a lot of work ahead of us and not many unique assets remaining.

[hoopsguy]

Neon, did you ever post on the seer/cunning wolf question? How does the cunning wolf appear to the seer? Human or wolf?

[Poli]

Go team villager!

[SnDvls]

well looks like the error in pm posting got me. I'll be watching closely, but I'm pretty confident the wolves will win. Thanks Neon for a fun game while it lasted.

Go Wolves!!!