WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins) - Page 10

The Jackal · 02-25-2011, 01:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

it makes sense though right? if you die in the WW portion why would you still be able to talk about it? other than being weird it gives an advantage to the village

Yeah, maybe I'm misreading what I just posted up there, but that's sure what it sounds like. Maybe EF didn't mean it that way.

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:02 AM

I think EF needs to clarify this point

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:06 AM

It's a little weird that you would be able to contribute, but have to avoid mentioning anything about the WW portion. It might give an advantage to the village, but mostly in the case of an offed seer who didn't reveal.

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:08 AM

I'd say there are 4 wolves (because of the cunning) and we've already got one. I'm confident we can nab another one tomorrow, luck is on our side.

Plus I can use the force

Lathum · 02-25-2011, 01:08 AM

OK, off to bed. Been a fun day of WW

mckerney · 02-25-2011, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

The combo of giving up a wolf and a clear scan could take you a long way. That being said, it would be a very meta-gamey way to get there, and knowing Sal I would be amazed if this was the case.

The problem I have with this is why would he do it that late in day one? I don't think that it would be done under normal circumstances, especially if we were close to lynching a villager who might be the seer. If that were the case then they would probably leave sacrificing MartinD until day two. The only reason I could see why the wolves would make a move like that is if mauboy is the cunning wolf. In such a situation they'd hope to clear two wolves, mauboy on a scan and saldana for giving up a wolf. It's risky though being it leaves saldana a candidate to be scanned by the seer.

Given the circumstances that would need to be necessary for a move like that to work I really don't think saldana gave up MartinD as another wolf.

CrimsonFox · 02-25-2011, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

This actually brings up an interesting point. Usually in WW when you are dead no more talk about the game. How is this approached now?

EF told me you can still talk until you're out for good (of both the WW and AR parts of the game).

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

The problem I have with this is why would he do it that late in day one? I don't think that it would be done under normal circumstances, especially if we were close to lynching a villager who might be the seer. If that were the case then they would probably leave sacrificing MartinD until day two. The only reason I could see why the wolves would make a move like that is if mauboy is the cunning wolf. In such a situation they'd hope to clear two wolves, mauboy on a scan and saldana for giving up a wolf. It's risky though being it leaves saldana a candidate to be scanned by the seer.

Given the circumstances that would need to be necessary for a move like that to work I really don't think saldana gave up MartinD as another wolf.

The part about mauboy does not make sense. If he is scanned as a villager, we know he is a wolf anyway as he is either the seer or a wolf. No other options for him.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:20 AM

I doubt Saldana is a wolf and I'd rather see someone else scanned. I think he is capable of a strong wolf play, but I seriously doubt he would have done it in a meta gamey way if he was a wolf. I'm guessing part of the reason his revealing of info was delayed was to see what EF said about it.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:21 AM

At this point, we know this

Mauboy = Seer or a Wolf
Lathum = Bodyguard

I'd also add this as an opinion.

Saldana is likely a villager.

mckerney · 02-25-2011, 01:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

The part about mauboy does not make sense. If he is scanned as a villager, we know he is a wolf anyway as he is either the seer or a wolf. No other options for him.

I don't think it's what happened, but it's the only situation where I could see a wolf pulling a move like that so late day one. Mostly making the point that I don't think saldana is a wolf.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:24 AM

And despite everyone seemingly not, I tend to lean toward Mauboy actually being the seer. MartinD placed a key 3rd vote on him that was posted about the same time as the second vote and really helped establish him as a lynch candidate when it wasn't needed.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

I don't think it's what happened, but it's the only situation where I could see a wolf pulling a move like that so late day one. Mostly making the point that I don't think saldana is a wolf.

Well, I agree with the Saldana part.

CrimsonFox · 02-25-2011, 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

I can also see mauboy's play as an attempt to draw the seer out, along with being a last ditch effort to save himself. When he did it he looked like a sure bet to get lynched, and unless I missed something he was vague enough that if the seer did come forward he could try to argue he was claiming a role though he never said it was seer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

The problem I have with this is why would he do it that late in day one? I don't think that it would be done under normal circumstances, especially if we were close to lynching a villager who might be the seer. If that were the case then they would probably leave sacrificing MartinD until day two. The only reason I could see why the wolves would make a move like that is if mauboy is the cunning wolf. In such a situation they'd hope to clear two wolves, mauboy on a scan and saldana for giving up a wolf. It's risky though being it leaves saldana a candidate to be scanned by the seer.

I have extreme doubts mau is the seer. I think it was a desperation move and trying to emulate tyke's move last game of inventing a role . That said if mau is not the seer, the real seer is not going to out himself to refute that. The "future" comment was obviously claiming seer. His claiming BG protected him too really sounds like he's making stuff up and overexplaining.

Amazing reveal, Lathum. With that info I think both Jackal and mau can be wolves.

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

At this point, we know this

Mauboy = Seer or a Wolf
Lathum = Bodyguard

I'd also add this as an opinion.

Saldana is likely a villager.

You forgot one thing:

Darth Vilus = BAMF!

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:27 AM

He may or may not be. If he's not dead on night 3, we know he's a wolf.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:28 AM

We're both BAMF = Broke Ass Mother ****ers

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:28 AM

Did you get your new phone btw?

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:30 AM

Yeah that's true. And no not yet, i'll have to wait til next week at least

mckerney · 02-25-2011, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I have extreme doubts mau is the seer. I think it was a desperation move and trying to emulate tyke's move last game of inventing a role . That said if mau is not the seer, the real seer is not going to out himself to refute that. The "future" comment was obviously claiming seer. His claiming BG protected him too really sounds like he's making stuff up and overexplaining.

Amazing reveal, Lathum. With that info I think both Jackal and mau can be wolves.

I don't entirely believe him either. I'm also open to the possibility that he's a regular villager who dropped hints that he seer to stay around past day one. I agree that the future comment was to give the impression he's a seer, but also without saying it so he can claim he never admitted to being seer.

I also think that he could be a wolf, but currently think The Jackal is a better pick for tonights vote.

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:32 AM

I don't like Mauboy's reveal to be honest. It just doesn't sit with me. If he was goin to hint instead of coming right out with it his hint wouldn't have been so blatant

Danny · 02-25-2011, 01:32 AM

Don't by that a vanilla would do that. And if he did, he should be lynched for it.

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm also open to the possibility that he's a regular villager who dropped hints that he seer to stay around past day one

This type of strategy puts the real seer in danger, i doubt that he would do that

CrimsonFox · 02-25-2011, 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

This type of strategy puts the real seer in danger, i doubt that he would do that

But being new, he wouldn't realize that. I definitely think he would do that just to save himself, wolf or not.

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:49 AM

True, we'll just have to see how this plays out. In my opinion we sould handle the jackal situation first

Darth Vilus · 02-25-2011, 01:49 AM

*should

JAG · 02-25-2011, 06:31 AM

Holy shit guys.

Sorry for missing the deadline, after putting the youngest to sleep, I sat on the couch for a minute and the next thing I knew, it was 1am. I can't believe the insanity I missed. Let me try to summarize:

1. mauboy1 is the seer or a wolf
2. saldana handed us a wolf after a PM from his partner telling him he was a wolf (uh, thanks!)
3. No NK, Lathum reveals he's BG and says he had told his partner that (Lathum, why would you do that when you didn't know if he was a wolf or not? That seems like a poor idea, although it apparently may have caught us another wolf)
4. Our team came in second for the leg, woohoo!

On the WW side, I'm going to hope mau is a wolf because even though we are off to a good start, it sucks if we're losing the seer and BG by N3 in a game where I figured the roles would last longer than usual considering there are more villagers than games I have usually played in. For today, I guess there are four possibilities:

1. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG and tried to off him N1.
2. mau is the seer, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG, figured Lathum would protect mau, and tried to off him N1.
3. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG and just took a swing a him randomly.
4. mau is seer, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG, figured mau would be protected, and just took a swing at him randomly.

I'm not a big believer in WW coincidence, so I'm less inclined to believe 3. or 4 (yes Lathum is a good player, but there's no shortage of strong players to take a random swing at). I don't know which of 1. or 2. is most likely, though I think as a wolf in scenario 2. I'd have been conservative and tried to NK mau to be guaranteed to have the seer out by N2, but either way Jackal would be a wolf, thus:

Vote Jackal

I'll try to keep up today, but I'm going to be challenged for time.

mauchow · 02-25-2011, 07:44 AM

I wish I could say that I had something good to say get the vote off Jackal if he is not a wolf. I didn't scan a wolf last night. I was actually debating between Lathum and Chief Rum and thankfully I went with CR. He scanned as a villager.

I think Lathum might be putting too much emphasis on Jackal which has caused all the votes to go his way, unfortunately. If we do find out he is a villager I'm not sure how we're better off. Someone please explain what we do gain by going gung-ho and having an all-out lopsided vote on Jackal?

mauchow · 02-25-2011, 08:24 AM

Here's what I do know I'm doing today..

I'm not voting for Saldana as the chances that both partners are wolves are pretty slim and would be a crazy move for Saldana to make if he's a wolf. Not seeing that move being made on day 1 though.

I'm not voting for Jackal because we need diversity if this doesn't work. I'd almost rather try swinging this into someone else's favor and investigate the quick voting on Jackal for day 3.

I'm not voting Lathum with his reveal.

And I also know I'm not voting CR as he was cleared with my scan.

Those are the four I know I'm not voting today, so that leaves me with 15 others.

mauchow · 02-25-2011, 08:36 AM

14...

bhlloy · 02-25-2011, 08:52 AM

Throwing more crazy conspiracy theories out there... what if Mau is the cunning, and the wolves decide to sacrifice the non-roled wolf to save him? The upside would be huge - knowing that Mauboy is a villager and claimed seer, there is no way that he gets lynched and the wolves could control a lot of the game.

The timing of Saldana's reveal seems just so questionable to me in terms of who it saved and when (doesn't necessarily look bad for Sal - he could have been fed the information by MartinD and be completely clueless about the whole thing)

Sal - what time did you get the PM from MartinD, if you don't mind sharing?

2 things bother me 1) the timing of a stone clad lynch to save Mauboy and 2) the fact that somebody could be that stupid to just PM their partner who is 75% chance of being a villager that they are a wolf.

I know people think there's no way the wolves sacrifice one of their own on day 1 but there's 5 of them left. Pretty big upside to doing that IMO.

Lathum · 02-25-2011, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Throwing more crazy conspiracy theories out there... what if Mau is the cunning, and the wolves decide to sacrifice the non-roled wolf to save him? The upside would be huge - knowing that Mauboy is a villager and claimed seer, there is no way that he gets lynched and the wolves could control a lot of the game.

.

This would only fly until the real seer was outed, then their plan would sink.

bhlloy · 02-25-2011, 09:12 AM

Well, seems to me that there's two options

1) the real seer would almost have to come forward at that point, meaning they know who the seer is (huge play for wolves)

2) the real seer stays quiet and mauboy gets to control all the scans up until the point that the real seer get's lynched or NK'd

I guess the real seer could get killed early on and this plan wouldn't work. But otherwise, you could control a large portion of the game for quite a while.

Again apologies if this seems dumb. Just trying to put some conversation out there. The other option seems to be that MartinD made one of the biggest screwups in game history and/or the wolves are stupid and I'm not willing to just take that at face value.

EagleFan · 02-25-2011, 09:31 AM

A lot to catch up on.

To answer the question which was raised.

Yes, if you are still in the game either WW or Race you may participare in the thread. The only thing that you can't do when you are eliminated via WW is participate in the voting.

I did this to add a little cross strategy for both the wolves and village. It is a mechanic that can favor the village (in the case of a seer being "killed" but still alive to talk. There is also a mechanic in place that will work in the wolves favor once it is triggered which should counter any gain the village may have.

The Jackal · 02-25-2011, 09:34 AM

See, someone please explain to me how trying to take out Lathum N1 would be a good idea if I was a wolf. There's absolutely no way I'd go without suspicion, it would be an awful move. What am I, a rookie? We'd have the knowledge that he was the BG in our back pockets, and be able to take him out later on without him being suspicious that I revealed any info.

I'm not a wolf, guys. It's a bizarre coincidence, but it's a coincidence nonetheless.

The Jackal · 02-25-2011, 09:38 AM

What happened last night should clear me much more than it damns me. If I was a wolf, I wouldn't have let that crap happen. That's an easy NK a couple days down the road, so what if he can get a block or two in.

The Jackal · 02-25-2011, 09:40 AM

Now as to who we should be voting instead, well, I don't have any great options. Sal gets a pass at least for now, and obviously we're not going after CR. Perhaps JAG or NTN to clear up some of the vote movement from yesterday, but that's about all I have.

saldana · 02-25-2011, 09:45 AM

In response to the timing question. I got the PM from martin a few hours earlier than I posted in the thread because I was waiting to see what EF said about it

I was ready to drop out of the game until he told me that it was ok to come in and give the info up to the village.

I didn't get that PM til about 5 minutes before I posted

I worked til 630 last night and had my kids til 9, so that was the fastest i could turn the info around

As far as me giving up a wolf on day 1 to draw a scan because I am the cunning, that's a really ballsy move on day one that would have been totally unnecessary. I'm a vanilla villager who got lucky

Lathum · 02-25-2011, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

What happened last night should clear me much more than it damns me. If I was a wolf, I wouldn't have let that crap happen. That's an easy NK a couple days down the road, so what if he can get a block or two in.

fwiw I know you were out last night. I think what happened was the other wolves came up with this why you were away

PackerFanatic · 02-25-2011, 10:04 AM

Wow...what a crazy night...

A lopsided vote that goes the wrong way definitely doesn't help things down the road, but this is clearly the best option for today.

VOTE THE JACKAL

Autumn · 02-25-2011, 10:10 AM

I don't see any situation where it makes sense to imagine Saldana is a wolf. Offering up a wolf to be "cleared" is a great move, but you don't make it on a night where the seer could "accidentally" get lynched. Unless everybody else with votes at that moment, including Mauboy, was a wolf, I don't see it.

We rarely ever get as good a lead as Lathum's on Jackal on D2. I don't really see any reason to take a pot shot at someone else with that in our pocket. Another seer scan and we'll have a really strong start to the game.

GoldenEagle · 02-25-2011, 10:22 AM

I am not convinced that Jackal is bad. Sure, it is the best lead we have at this point but the justification of him being a wolf does not add up. Lathum could be a night one target in any game.

In fact, it leads me to believe that mau is more than likely not the seer. Why would the target not be him? Surely the wolves would prefer to kill off the seer instead of a solid player, who may or may not have a role.

That being said, I think either mau or the jackal is a wolf. I am just not sure which one yet.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 10:25 AM

GE, whether Mau is the seer or not, he's most likely not targeted last night. The wolves would have to assume he would be guarded with a then unrevealed bg.

The Jackal · 02-25-2011, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

fwiw I know you were out last night. I think what happened was the other wolves came up with this why you were away

A metagamey lynch, woo.

I get your point, but still, it would've been a bad move, and selling me down the river, after they'd already lost one wolf. Just bad move all around. You'll all see I'm telling the truth, and chalk it up to "oh, well it was a good lead". But man, this annoys me.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 10:26 AM

Or in the event Jackal is a wolf, they knew the BG and knew Lathum would be likely to protect Mau.

The Jackal · 02-25-2011, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Or in the event Jackal is a wolf, they knew the BG and knew Lathum would be likely to protect Mau.

Which would still have gotten me killed the next day, because Lathum can still talk..

The Jackal · 02-25-2011, 10:36 AM

I'm going to laugh and eat popcorn while the wolves tear you apart and Lathum and I win the race.

GoldenEagle · 02-25-2011, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

GE, whether Mau is the seer or not, he's most likely not targeted last night. The wolves would have to assume he would be guarded with a then unrevealed bg.

You have a point. I don't guess that crossed my mind. I am still not convinced that Jackal is a wolf and I think we could potentially waste a day of voting history.

Danny · 02-25-2011, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Which would still have gotten me killed the next day, because Lathum can still talk..

This is true, but we did not know the specifics at the time. Still, this is something to consider and the first piece of information that is a possible reason to not vote you.

Chief Rum · 02-25-2011, 10:50 AM

The thing I don't get? Why DIDN'T Lathum protect the seer? Who plays with games like that, with the BG role? It is something that has bugged me since the get-go.

Now, it would take a tremendously gutsy wolf move AND the real BG would for some reason need to stay silent, so for those reasons, I expect Lathum is telling the truth. I can't see why the real BG would stay silent, and we have the evidence that no one died last night to back up what Lathum said.

But, yeah, I am struggling a bit with the fact our BG had a pretty good idea who the seer was and chose not to protect him. It may have ended up being the right choice here, but that concerns me going forward. I certainly hope Lathum protects the seer tonight.

02-25-2011, 01:02 AM	#452
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	I think EF needs to clarify this point __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

02-25-2011, 01:08 AM	#454
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	I'd say there are 4 wolves (because of the cunning) and we've already got one. I'm confident we can nab another one tomorrow, luck is on our side. Plus I can use the force __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

02-25-2011, 01:30 AM	#469
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	Yeah that's true. And no not yet, i'll have to wait til next week at least __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

02-25-2011, 01:32 AM	#471
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	I don't like Mauboy's reveal to be honest. It just doesn't sit with me. If he was goin to hint instead of coming right out with it his hint wouldn't have been so blatant __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

02-25-2011, 01:49 AM	#475
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	True, we'll just have to see how this plays out. In my opinion we sould handle the jackal situation first __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

02-25-2011, 01:06 AM	#453
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	It's a little weird that you would be able to contribute, but have to avoid mentioning anything about the WW portion. It might give an advantage to the village, but mostly in the case of an offed seer who didn't reveal.

02-25-2011, 01:08 AM	#455
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	OK, off to bed. Been a fun day of WW

02-25-2011, 01:20 AM	#459
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I doubt Saldana is a wolf and I'd rather see someone else scanned. I think he is capable of a strong wolf play, but I seriously doubt he would have done it in a meta gamey way if he was a wolf. I'm guessing part of the reason his revealing of info was delayed was to see what EF said about it.

02-25-2011, 01:21 AM	#460
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	At this point, we know this Mauboy = Seer or a Wolf Lathum = Bodyguard I'd also add this as an opinion. Saldana is likely a villager.

02-25-2011, 01:24 AM	#462
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	And despite everyone seemingly not, I tend to lean toward Mauboy actually being the seer. MartinD placed a key 3rd vote on him that was posted about the same time as the second vote and really helped establish him as a lynch candidate when it wasn't needed.

02-25-2011, 01:27 AM	#466
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	He may or may not be. If he's not dead on night 3, we know he's a wolf.

02-25-2011, 01:28 AM	#467
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	We're both BAMF = Broke Ass Mother ****ers

02-25-2011, 01:28 AM	#468
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Did you get your new phone btw?

02-25-2011, 01:32 AM	#472
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Don't by that a vanilla would do that. And if he did, he should be lynched for it.

02-25-2011, 01:49 AM	#476
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	should __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it.*" ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

02-25-2011, 06:31 AM	#477
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Holy shit guys. Sorry for missing the deadline, after putting the youngest to sleep, I sat on the couch for a minute and the next thing I knew, it was 1am. I can't believe the insanity I missed. Let me try to summarize: 1. mauboy1 is the seer or a wolf 2. saldana handed us a wolf after a PM from his partner telling him he was a wolf (uh, thanks!) 3. No NK, Lathum reveals he's BG and says he had told his partner that (Lathum, why would you do that when you didn't know if he was a wolf or not? That seems like a poor idea, although it apparently may have caught us another wolf) 4. Our team came in second for the leg, woohoo! On the WW side, I'm going to hope mau is a wolf because even though we are off to a good start, it sucks if we're losing the seer and BG by N3 in a game where I figured the roles would last longer than usual considering there are more villagers than games I have usually played in. For today, I guess there are four possibilities: 1. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG and tried to off him N1. 2. mau is the seer, Jackal is a wolf, wolves knew Lathum was BG, figured Lathum would protect mau, and tried to off him N1. 3. mau is a wolf, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG and just took a swing a him randomly. 4. mau is seer, Jackal is a villager, wolves had no knowledge of Lathum being BG, figured mau would be protected, and just took a swing at him randomly. I'm not a big believer in WW coincidence, so I'm less inclined to believe 3. or 4 (yes Lathum is a good player, but there's no shortage of strong players to take a random swing at). I don't know which of 1. or 2. is most likely, though I think as a wolf in scenario 2. I'd have been conservative and tried to NK mau to be guaranteed to have the seer out by N2, but either way Jackal would be a wolf, thus: Vote Jackal I'll try to keep up today, but I'm going to be challenged for time.

02-25-2011, 07:44 AM	#478
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	I wish I could say that I had something good to say get the vote off Jackal if he is not a wolf. I didn't scan a wolf last night. I was actually debating between Lathum and Chief Rum and thankfully I went with CR. He scanned as a villager. I think Lathum might be putting too much emphasis on Jackal which has caused all the votes to go his way, unfortunately. If we do find out he is a villager I'm not sure how we're better off. Someone please explain what we do gain by going gung-ho and having an all-out lopsided vote on Jackal?

02-25-2011, 08:24 AM	#479
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	Here's what I do know I'm doing today.. I'm not voting for Saldana as the chances that both partners are wolves are pretty slim and would be a crazy move for Saldana to make if he's a wolf. Not seeing that move being made on day 1 though. I'm not voting for Jackal because we need diversity if this doesn't work. I'd almost rather try swinging this into someone else's favor and investigate the quick voting on Jackal for day 3. I'm not voting Lathum with his reveal. And I also know I'm not voting CR as he was cleared with my scan. Those are the four I know I'm not voting today, so that leaves me with 15 others.

02-25-2011, 08:36 AM	#480
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	14...

02-25-2011, 08:52 AM	#481
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Throwing more crazy conspiracy theories out there... what if Mau is the cunning, and the wolves decide to sacrifice the non-roled wolf to save him? The upside would be huge - knowing that Mauboy is a villager and claimed seer, there is no way that he gets lynched and the wolves could control a lot of the game. The timing of Saldana's reveal seems just so questionable to me in terms of who it saved and when (doesn't necessarily look bad for Sal - he could have been fed the information by MartinD and be completely clueless about the whole thing) Sal - what time did you get the PM from MartinD, if you don't mind sharing? 2 things bother me 1) the timing of a stone clad lynch to save Mauboy and 2) the fact that somebody could be that stupid to just PM their partner who is 75% chance of being a villager that they are a wolf. I know people think there's no way the wolves sacrifice one of their own on day 1 but there's 5 of them left. Pretty big upside to doing that IMO.

02-25-2011, 09:12 AM	#483
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Well, seems to me that there's two options 1) the real seer would almost have to come forward at that point, meaning they know who the seer is (huge play for wolves) 2) the real seer stays quiet and mauboy gets to control all the scans up until the point that the real seer get's lynched or NK'd I guess the real seer could get killed early on and this plan wouldn't work. But otherwise, you could control a large portion of the game for quite a while. Again apologies if this seems dumb. Just trying to put some conversation out there. The other option seems to be that MartinD made one of the biggest screwups in game history and/or the wolves are stupid and I'm not willing to just take that at face value.

02-25-2011, 09:31 AM	#484
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	A lot to catch up on. To answer the question which was raised. Yes, if you are still in the game either WW or Race you may participare in the thread. The only thing that you can't do when you are eliminated via WW is participate in the voting. I did this to add a little cross strategy for both the wolves and village. It is a mechanic that can favor the village (in the case of a seer being "killed" but still alive to talk. There is also a mechanic in place that will work in the wolves favor once it is triggered which should counter any gain the village may have. __________________ The EagleFan YouTube Channel - Reactions Soarin' & Scratchin' YouTube Channel - We react to music, videos, TV, we talk, we are planning some field trips Soarin' & Soothin' - Meditation, Relaxation, and Sleep Aid; mental health is important

02-25-2011, 09:34 AM	#485
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	See, someone please explain to me how trying to take out Lathum N1 would be a good idea if I was a wolf. There's absolutely no way I'd go without suspicion, it would be an awful move. What am I, a rookie? We'd have the knowledge that he was the BG in our back pockets, and be able to take him out later on without him being suspicious that I revealed any info. I'm not a wolf, guys. It's a bizarre coincidence, but it's a coincidence nonetheless.

02-25-2011, 09:38 AM	#486
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	What happened last night should clear me much more than it damns me. If I was a wolf, I wouldn't have let that crap happen. That's an easy NK a couple days down the road, so what if he can get a block or two in.

02-25-2011, 09:40 AM	#487
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Now as to who we should be voting instead, well, I don't have any great options. Sal gets a pass at least for now, and obviously we're not going after CR. Perhaps JAG or NTN to clear up some of the vote movement from yesterday, but that's about all I have.

02-25-2011, 09:45 AM	#488
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	In response to the timing question. I got the PM from martin a few hours earlier than I posted in the thread because I was waiting to see what EF said about it I was ready to drop out of the game until he told me that it was ok to come in and give the info up to the village. I didn't get that PM til about 5 minutes before I posted I worked til 630 last night and had my kids til 9, so that was the fastest i could turn the info around As far as me giving up a wolf on day 1 to draw a scan because I am the cunning, that's a really ballsy move on day one that would have been totally unnecessary. I'm a vanilla villager who got lucky

02-25-2011, 10:04 AM	#490
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Wow...what a crazy night... A lopsided vote that goes the wrong way definitely doesn't help things down the road, but this is clearly the best option for today. VOTE THE JACKAL

02-25-2011, 10:10 AM	#491
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I don't see any situation where it makes sense to imagine Saldana is a wolf. Offering up a wolf to be "cleared" is a great move, but you don't make it on a night where the seer could "accidentally" get lynched. Unless everybody else with votes at that moment, including Mauboy, was a wolf, I don't see it. We rarely ever get as good a lead as Lathum's on Jackal on D2. I don't really see any reason to take a pot shot at someone else with that in our pocket. Another seer scan and we'll have a really strong start to the game.

02-25-2011, 10:22 AM	#492
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	I am not convinced that Jackal is bad. Sure, it is the best lead we have at this point but the justification of him being a wolf does not add up. Lathum could be a night one target in any game. In fact, it leads me to believe that mau is more than likely not the seer. Why would the target not be him? Surely the wolves would prefer to kill off the seer instead of a solid player, who may or may not have a role. That being said, I think either mau or the jackal is a wolf. I am just not sure which one yet. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

02-25-2011, 10:25 AM	#493
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	GE, whether Mau is the seer or not, he's most likely not targeted last night. The wolves would have to assume he would be guarded with a then unrevealed bg.

02-25-2011, 10:26 AM	#495
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Or in the event Jackal is a wolf, they knew the BG and knew Lathum would be likely to protect Mau.

02-25-2011, 10:36 AM	#497
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm going to laugh and eat popcorn while the wolves tear you apart and Lathum and I win the race.

02-25-2011, 10:50 AM	#500
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	The thing I don't get? Why DIDN'T Lathum protect the seer? Who plays with games like that, with the BG role? It is something that has bugged me since the get-go. Now, it would take a tremendously gutsy wolf move AND the real BG would for some reason need to stay silent, so for those reasons, I expect Lathum is telling the truth. I can't see why the real BG would stay silent, and we have the evidence that no one died last night to back up what Lathum said. But, yeah, I am struggling a bit with the fact our BG had a pretty good idea who the seer was and chose not to protect him. It may have ended up being the right choice here, but that concerns me going forward. I certainly hope Lathum protects the seer tonight. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

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