Werewolf XCVII - Labyrinth II (GAME OVER - COMMONERS WIN!)

[DaddyTorgo]

sorry - what's buying martin all this trust? i must have missed something from yesterday afternoon

[Autumn]

That he has claimed to be Nostradamus and nobody has countered him.

[RendeR]

Why were you going to jump on me DT? I'm curious as to what you were thinking made me suspicious?

[DaddyTorgo]

aaah - i missed his claim to be nostradamus.

i was thinking of jumping you render because of the way you described the attack and it sounded like the ice ancient was trying to freeze you and the paladin wouldn't have been able to block it. not sure why you'd make that play as a wolf, but it led me strongly to consider you until i thought about it for a minute and realized that it was likely just flavorful writing by jackal on a kill attempt.

[nfg22]

A couple questions for you all....

Does the Loki neccesarily able to know how to become good or bad. It looks as the language says he just makes choices that will push him either way. Granted these choices may seem obvious but maybe not. So we cant assume Loki will be able to choose.

Also, is there a way RendeR is bad, and found out he had the BG guard him and then claimed to be attacked just so he could be cleared? At this point I dont want a false villager in the CoT because we are doing so good but then again I think his story is reliable. So if someone could answer whether he could have found out if he wasnt attacked.

[nfg22]

Other than that I still have few suspicions and I dont know who to vote for...the whole Autumn mistype is not very indicative to me. I dont see the argument for Jag unless someone can explain it to me.

[hoopsguy]

NFG, that would largely depend on how the moderator does his writeups. The bodyguard role is fundamentally the same in most WW games (guard someone, potentially stop attacks) but the implementation can be very different from game to game.

In many games the target has no idea he was guarded. In most games (lately, at least) the bodyguard is not able to identify the attacker.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NFG, that would largely depend on how the moderator does his writeups. The bodyguard role is fundamentally the same in most WW games (guard someone, potentially stop attacks) but the implementation can be very different from game to game.

In many games the target has no idea he was guarded. In most games (lately, at least) the bodyguard is not able to identify the attacker.

Ok...not saying im suspicious of RendeR, but it is possible he got guarded but is still bad and was sent a message saying he was guarded and now thrusts himself into the CoT?

[nfg22]

I guess if tommorow the person guarded says they didnt get a message then we can put him in the CoT. In either case im not voting for him, I dont think he is a wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Other than that I still have few suspicions and I dont know who to vote for...the whole Autumn mistype is not very indicative to me. I dont see the argument for Jag unless someone can explain it to me.

The argument is making a key vote which helped to reduce the chance of Lathum being lynched. Abe is in this boat as well. Autumn and Barkeep both put down early votes on Dubb which helped to establish him as a candidate. It seems likely that one of the wolves would do that with Dubb the way Lathum did with MartinD.

[Autumn]

I don't mind remaining somewhat skeptical of Render's claim if only because it seems improbably lucky for the BG to have protected Render of all people, and for Render of all people to have been attacked the same night.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't mind remaining somewhat skeptical of Render's claim if only because it seems improbably lucky for the BG to have protected Render of all people, and for Render of all people to have been attacked the same night.

I'm not adding Render to the trust list until we have more info, but I also wouldn't be voting for him until we have more info either. In general I'd say it's likely he is telling the truth though pending a BG disputing this.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't mind remaining somewhat skeptical of Render's claim if only because it seems improbably lucky for the BG to have protected Render of all people, and for Render of all people to have been attacked the same night.

I can understand this train of thought, I just chalk it up to my performance in the last game making me an early NK target =)

[Autumn]

I can agree that looking at the votes Abe and JAG would be good targets, both effectively pushed Lathum down out of the voting. It's not much to go on but it's something.

I would be glad for Martin to reveal one person on his list and I would gladly vote for whoever that was (well, obviously someone who's not semi-cleared.). If the BG really did protect Render last night we could get an extra scan here.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Vote Pass

I have a strong feeling that what he was doing on the last page was being done with devious goals in mind. His series of posts pinged me as beyond odd reading them. He also has a very poor vote(timing and everything) in for me yesterday.

What was I doing last page? I see myself giving a recap of votes, suggesting killing ntn, and asking Autumn about his typo. Which thing(s) were you referring to? I don't see how my vote was any poorer than anyone else's (including yours) assuming that we were villager-villager.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I also didn't like his vote yesterday, which if my notes are right came with no explanation at all.

I explained why I was suspicious of dubb when I made the vote -- because of hoops defending him in a similar way I remember him defending a fellow wolf once way back when I was a new player. I didn't explain at the time that I thought Martin was Nostradamus, but I did believe it then.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

man we are off to a great start against the wolves, hope we can keep it up. I have encountered nothing in my movements so far-that's right no people or other encounters.

I plan on voting for someone who voted for Dubb yesterday. I'm sure the wolves split their votes given that both candidates are now revealed as good guys, but especially given the praise over dubb's skills in this game (well-earned), I'm sure some took a shot at trying to get him out of the game.

I have also not run into anyone. I did locate a trap, but I'm not sure how to tell anyone where it was.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Thanks, I'd hate for us not to have something minor and inconsequential for us to waste our energy on today ;-)

Heh.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I explained why I was suspicious of dubb when I made the vote -- because of hoops defending him in a similar way I remember him defending a fellow wolf once way back when I was a new player. I didn't explain at the time that I thought Martin was Nostradamus, but I did believe it then.

Ah you did that in a post after your vote. I see that now, but either missed it then or didn't go back in my notes and correct it.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I explained why I was suspicious of dubb when I made the vote -- because of hoops defending him in a similar way I remember him defending a fellow wolf once way back when I was a new player. I didn't explain at the time that I thought Martin was Nostradamus, but I did believe it then.

That post raised an eyebrow from me, even before learning that Dubb was the Phoenix. I had already claimed Telepath in the thread, which is a known good role. So you would have to be concerned that I would be fake revealing on the first day (second page of the thread?) and then covering for Dubb? It seemed borderline ridiculous to me, not so much in a "Pass is a wolf" type of way, but in a "dude, take off the tin foil hat" sort of way.

[Thomkal]

It looks like four people who voted for Dubb yesterday are not at least semi-cleared at this point is that correct?

Martin-claims to be Nostradamus.
Ntn-claims to be Inferno Hunter.
Lerriuqs-claimed to be good by Martin with a Nostradamus scan
Hoops-claims to be Telepath.

Leaving Autumn, Barkeep, Pass, and Abe as unknowns who voted for Dubb. I'd like to hear more from each of you why I and the rest of us shouldn't be voting for you tonight.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The Jester surveys the results, tapping his foot impatiently.

You're all still alive? And someone came back to life! Fancy that..

Huh. No one died?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So, I figured I would share some map info with you guys with the idea that there are probably more good guys than bad guys out there at this point.

From my starting point I went straight twice. The first time I went straight I was told that it was a little warmer. I suspected, incorrectly, that the inferno device may have been transferred to me. Nope, not the case. On my second move straight I have now found myself trapped in a cone of flames.

This does not seem to match up with the abilities associated with the Ancient of Fire, so I assume that it is a Labyrinth-specific option that I've triggered.

I'll post in here as I learn more, but my initial impression is that this is not a really great turn of events for me. So exercise caution if you see some language describing temperature changes in your new location. Also, if one of the other telepaths is close let me know and I'll try to backtrack towards you rather than you coming to find me.

Damn, I just got language like that in my lastest move. Thanks!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Leaving Autumn, Barkeep, Pass, and Abe as unknowns who voted for Dubb. I'd like to hear more from each of you why I and the rest of us shouldn't be voting for you tonight.

That is probably my list of candidates as well.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Danny

Based on how the game is going, if I were the seer or FBI agent and I find a wolf, I would reveal right away. It would clear you and net us a second wolf.

What about if they found Loki or perhaps the Minotaur? Would ypou want them to reveal then?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

That post raised an eyebrow from me, even before learning that Dubb was the Phoenix. I had already claimed Telepath in the thread, which is a known good role. So you would have to be concerned that I would be fake revealing on the first day (second page of the thread?) and then covering for Dubb? It seemed borderline ridiculous to me, not so much in a "Pass is a wolf" type of way, but in a "dude, take off the tin foil hat" sort of way.

Yeah -- I had some egg on my face when I realized that you were a cleared good the next day. Of course, someone could have mentioned it to me! I still would have kept my vote on dubb because I thought Martin was Nostradamus, though.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

It looks like four people who voted for Dubb yesterday are not at least semi-cleared at this point is that correct?

Martin-claims to be Nostradamus.
Ntn-claims to be Inferno Hunter.
Lerriuqs-claimed to be good by Martin with a Nostradamus scan
Hoops-claims to be Telepath.

Leaving Autumn, Barkeep, Pass, and Abe as unknowns who voted for Dubb. I'd like to hear more from each of you why I and the rest of us shouldn't be voting for you tonight.

I've already defended my vote. But I want to point out that by your list here Martin is semi-cleared, which means everyone voting for Martin was probably also voting for a villager. I'm not sure that this is the best technique to find a wolf then.

Votes that moved us away from Lathum make some sense to me. But I think we're not going to get much out of a primarily villager/villager run off.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by RendeR

THe Paladin did not protect Martin last night.

He saved my ass. I was attacked by the Ancient of Ice.

I had terrible dreams of snow and frozen regions and death and I awoke to see a shield protecting me.

Whoah!

[Abe Sargent]

Wolves must be PISSED!!!

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Autumn

When did Lathum get blown? During the night cycle?

Is it possible he was set up to do a night kill and they couldn't because he died? I assume there would have been time to switch their orders.

He was teh Ancient of Earth and RendeR said he was attacked by the one of Ice

[Autumn]

I love it when people read back through pages of posts and respond as they go ;-)

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I can understand this train of thought, I just chalk it up to my performance in the last game making me an early NK target =)

Or maybe you were the only person in teh area

[MartinD]

I'm seeing several posts from Autumn asking for me to reveal someone from my list - while I can see that there is some benefit (in that I would get another scan), I'm fairly sure that there's some downside risk as well. In particular, I could see a situation where I effectively decide who we're lynching by stating that a certain player is on my list, followed by a one-sided, pile-on vote - means that there's a pretty good chance that we lose out on getting some useful vote history from today's lynch vote.

There's also the possibility that the wolves may hand me a free scan if they were to night-kill someone on my list - don't think that they would make that move if that information was out in the open.

I don't have enough information to be comfortable with what may come down to declaring a death sentence on a completely innocent player, just to get one more scan (that I may not be able to use if I end up as the wolves' target on Night 2).

This is not saying that I won't make my list public - just that I would like to see a balanced argument, taking into account both the good and bad sides of the deal, before I start naming names.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I've already defended my vote. But I want to point out that by your list here Martin is semi-cleared, which means everyone voting for Martin was probably also voting for a villager. I'm not sure that this is the best technique to find a wolf then.

Votes that moved us away from Lathum make some sense to me. But I think we're not going to get much out of a primarily villager/villager run off.

Highly agree with this. I think the votes to look for are the ones that tried to make this a villager-villager race -- so probably the ones that helped make Lathum less of a factor in the votes early on.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Highly agree with this. I think the votes to look for are the ones that tried to make this a villager-villager race -- so probably the ones that helped make Lathum less of a factor in the votes early on.

Someone people have been breathing down you, why do you think that is?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by MartinD

There's also the possibility that the wolves may hand me a free scan if they were to night-kill someone on my list - don't think that they would make that move if that information was out in the open.

This is why I would suggest only revealing one name, to maximize the chance for an additional nightkill on the list and another scan.

But you're right that it might create a pile-on, which isn't useful. Though given that nobody else has really jumped on my idea, maybe it won't.

I can understand you not wanting to decide the lynch, and possibly messing up voting history. Two candidates from your list would give us a race at least, but I'm not sure if that's the best route.

After the last game I'm a bit wary of getting too cute and missing out on a voting history, so I don't know. I at least am likely to follow your vote because I think an extra scan would be very powerful with 3 wolves in 9 folks.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Someone people have been breathing down you, why do you think that is?

They're all stupid?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is why I would suggest only revealing one name, to maximize the chance for an additional nightkill on the list and another scan.

But you're right that it might create a pile-on, which isn't useful. Though given that nobody else has really jumped on my idea, maybe it won't.

I can understand you not wanting to decide the lynch, and possibly messing up voting history. Two candidates from your list would give us a race at least, but I'm not sure if that's the best route.

After the last game I'm a bit wary of getting too cute and missing out on a voting history, so I don't know. I at least am likely to follow your vote because I think an extra scan would be very powerful with 3 wolves in 9 folks.

One name seems like a bad idea -- two or three seems like a good way to make it an interesting race and not a pile-on.

[hoopsguy]

For Autumn + Pass, who are suggesting that Thomkal's "Dubb voters" list is not a good place to look.

Would there be any reason for all of the wolves to bypass one of the two villagers in a villager/villager runoff? Traditional wolf thinking (or at least how I think as a wolf) is to avoid clumping together on a candidate and to avoid sticking out with your vote, when possible. The later suggests voting for people who have votes.

So it would seem to make sense that the majority of the remaining wolves would have scattered across the two leading candidates. It just so happens that we have four semi-cleared folks among the 8 on Dubb, leaving four non-cleared. If the non-cleared list is shorter on MartinD then I would certainly consider that list for today's vote.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Someone people have been breathing down you, why do you think that is?

But seriously, my worry about hoops probably led to a lot of it. Other than that, I'm not sure what else.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For Autumn + Pass, who are suggesting that Thomkal's "Dubb voters" list is not a good place to look.

Would there be any reason for all of the wolves to bypass one of the two villagers in a villager/villager runoff? Traditional wolf thinking (or at least how I think as a wolf) is to avoid clumping together on a candidate and to avoid sticking out with your vote, when possible. The later suggests voting for people who have votes.

So it would seem to make sense that the majority of the remaining wolves would have scattered across the two leading candidates. It just so happens that we have four semi-cleared folks among the 8 on Dubb, leaving four non-cleared. If the non-cleared list is shorter on MartinD then I would certainly consider that list for today's vote.

I can understand that logic. I'll also help things out in this respect by revealing as the Minotaur. RAWR! Oh, wait, what noise do minotaurs make?

[Barkeep49]

Sweet. Now that we know the Minotaur I can say that I've transformed from Jekyll into Hyde.

[hoopsguy]

This has been one interesting game in terms of the role reveals already out there on Day 2.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For Autumn + Pass, who are suggesting that Thomkal's "Dubb voters" list is not a good place to look.

Would there be any reason for all of the wolves to bypass one of the two villagers in a villager/villager runoff? Traditional wolf thinking (or at least how I think as a wolf) is to avoid clumping together on a candidate and to avoid sticking out with your vote, when possible. The later suggests voting for people who have votes.

So it would seem to make sense that the majority of the remaining wolves would have scattered across the two leading candidates. It just so happens that we have four semi-cleared folks among the 8 on Dubb, leaving four non-cleared. If the non-cleared list is shorter on MartinD then I would certainly consider that list for today's vote.

Well, we got burned with this kind of analysis a few games back, was it Office Space? when we had an all villager lynch and wolves with non-wolf like voting records.

I agree it seems likely there's one wolf on Dubb at least, but I wouldn't guarantee it. I was simply pointing out that I wouldn't suggest focusing too hard on one side when there's just as likely wolves on the other side.

The fact that it's gotten wide excitement from all parts makes me wonder if in fact there isn't a wolf there and so therefore the wolves are lending their enthusiasm to the idea.

Given all that I agree that, knowing I"m good, seems like a 1/3 chance is good there. I would probably vote for Abe out of those three given his role in pushing Lathum out of the limelight.

[Autumn]

Wow.

[Autumn]

Why would the minotaur reveal? His goal is to eliminate all of us, no?

[Autumn]

I'm willing to role reveal as well if we want to do a mass reveal, but I'm not sure if it's the wise thing. Thoughts?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Why would the minotaur reveal? His goal is to eliminate all of us, no?

It is. However, if villagers die off, the wolves win before I can. If wolves die off, I still win by making sure no villagers reach the center. So I am on Team Villager here.

[Autumn]

Since everyone else is reeling in shock, let me think outloud. If all hte good/neutral guys reveal, we basically run the risk of losing our seer and bodyguard right off. Which won't mean much since we'll already know who the wolves are. We can pick them off and not need our roled players. Hmm.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I've already defended my vote. But I want to point out that by your list here Martin is semi-cleared, which means everyone voting for Martin was probably also voting for a villager. I'm not sure that this is the best technique to find a wolf then.

Votes that moved us away from Lathum make some sense to me. But I think we're not going to get much out of a primarily villager/villager run off.

I definitely agree we should be watching the Lathum switches too. But more than one person was singing dubb's praises as a player before he got lynched, and I have to think that given the opportunity the wolves would try to take him out over Martin (no offense intended Martin). We shouldn't just ignore the votes from uncleared people on Martin either (or myself on Barkeep and any other unattached votes to Martin/Dubb). I just think we are more likely to find a wolf (or wolves) amongst the uncleared dubb voters right now.