Beware the Fat Man in Red (Game Over: Village Wins!)

[Abe Sargent]

CR is here, can't wait to hear from you

[Chief Rum]

Okay, with one wolf left (likely), I think I have too much information to keep quiet any longer.

I am the Selfless Believer (BG).

Last night, I protected GE. Unfortunately, CF brutaled to GE, and of course, that traditionally sidesteps BG protection (since it is technically a day action).

Had I known that, of course, I would have protected britrock.

But my role and what happened last night isn't even the most important bit of information I have. On Night One, I did not submit a protection order.

Yet no one died.

I worked a double Monday night, and I was rushing out the door in between jobs when I put in my Day One vote. I totally spaced on a protection order (I had been thinking it was a two deadline game, bad Chief, bad).

Lots of food for thought there. It's the primary reason I had doubts on GE's reveal. I didn't know what to make of it.

Anyway, there you go.

[Autumn]

Heading out to class, I'll be gone until late afternoon. Big reveal from Chief, I'll have to chew it over when I get back.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by JAG

I take that back too Abe. I'm a bit embarrassed at my thought process here, not up to my standards.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, with one wolf left (likely), I think I have too much information to keep quiet any longer.

I am the Selfless Believer (BG).

Last night, I protected GE. Unfortunately, CF brutaled to GE, and of course, that traditionally sidesteps BG protection (since it is technically a day action).

Had I known that, of course, I would have protected britrock.

But my role and what happened last night isn't even the most important bit of information I have. On Night One, I did not submit a protection order.

Yet no one died.

I worked a double Monday night, and I was rushing out the door in between jobs when I put in my Day One vote. I totally spaced on a protection order (I had been thinking it was a two deadline game, bad Chief, bad).

Lots of food for thought there. It's the primary reason I had doubts on GE's reveal. I didn't know what to make of it.

Anyway, there you go.

You are such a liar! I don't even understand why you would make this bad story up this soon!

Folks, I am the Selfless Believer. I am the bg.


On Night one, i intentionally decided to stay on myself, to game the wolves, figuring that even if one was on, they would go elsewhere. It wsa a gamble, I know, but I've won before with that gamble, and I haven;t played it in a while. I stopped bad guy, but I didn;t get any more info.

Last night, I moved to block the seer, but he was duked and thus had no target.


I bought DT's claim that the wolves couldn;t have been on at the time of the lynch N1 because the attack came on me, and why would they do that if the seer had been exposed? So the wolves could not have been on. In fact, we were right about CF.

And now I can see that CR is the other wolf. Must have been desperate to have fake revealed so early and feeling in a circle of two, so pushing to get the credit for the first revealed.


Man, that's not even a good lie about "forgetting to put in an order"


Anyway, this is why i was so cautious last night when britrock went to duke, becuase I was hoping he would not duke me, and kill a role. He mentioned I was a finalist, so i pushed.

[JAG]

Well, ok then. A double reveal and somehow mauboy is not involved.

[JAG]

The question is, do we have a sceptic or wolf fake reveal? You would think it would have to be the sceptic because a wolf fake reveal would let the BG get a guaranteed block in by guarding the fake revealer.

[JAG]

So if we believe CR's story, the only explanation is that the wolves forgot to submit a kill order.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I actually agree.

BR, let us know before you take a shot in the dark who you have as your top target, juts in case....

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

CF is not a bad shot,he's one of DT's five but i wish you had given people a chance, i don't want to Duke off the bodyguard ,you know?

I think Abe's story is a lot more believable based on his posts around deadline. Then I would question, why did the wolves come after Abe D1?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, curious questions upon re-readign the rules.

Questions for EagleFan:

1. Does the Fat Man have PM rights with his Elves?
2. Do we know if the Fat Man when he chooses a target and the Elf doing the killing, if he does it all himself or does the Elf in question have to submit a kill order?
3. Silly question, but do the Fat Man and Elves who the others are?
4. Do either of them know who the Sceptic is?
5. What happens if the Sceptic is attacked?
6. The rules state that the Sceptic "will find out who the evil team is". Is this information given to the Sceptic at the start of the game or does he learn it sometime during the course of the game, maybe at a certain time/day, or under certain conditions?

This post makes a good bit of sense from a sceptic's point of view (information that would be helpful to know as a sceptic).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

This post makes a good bit of sense from a sceptic's point of view (information that would be helpful to know as a sceptic).

It seems to me there are questions in there a Skeptic would know, don't you think?

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to guess Abe is the Skeptic. I doubt the last remaining wolf would do this at this point, since even if Abe as a wolf got me lynched, when I turned up as the BG tonight, he would be lynched tomorrow, game over.

[JAG]

Going to wait to hear from others before saying more.

[Abe Sargent]

CR does brin up a good point, he might be the Skeptic trying to swing the game back in his favor. I was so caught up on finding a wolf that I forget that CR might jus tbe the skeptic trying to sow some chaos.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

CR does brin up a good point, he might be the Skeptic trying to swing the game back in his favor. I was so caught up on finding a wolf that I forget that CR might jus tbe the skeptic trying to sow some chaos.

Actually, JAG said he thought my questions could be from a Sceptic. I pointed out as the Sceptic, I would not have needed to ask a lot of those questions.

My point was that you're probably the Sceptic and not the last remaining wolf.

[Abe Sargent]

Just one more thing to say and then I have to go and finish one of my textbooks for this semester -

I almost had the awesome double block in back to back nights and I was very disappointed, not only that our seer was slain, but that prevented me from blocking that night and stopping them. I was going to jump up and down if I had gotten a double block in the first two nights.

[DaddyTorgo]

Okay - so one of Abe or CR are the skeptic.

Makes no sense for the wolf to fake reveal at this point.

So I propose that we ignore the two of them and focus on the other parties who we found interesting, because if we find the wolf first it's game over, and if not we know we have the two of them narrowed down. That being said, I lean slightly more towards trusting Abe, as his story seems more believeable (although we all know CR and Monday deadlines).

Based on JAG's analysis and the slight bump he gives to Mau to elevate him out of the group at the bottom...

VOTE AUTUMN

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think whatever happened last night will turn out to be one of the more important and telling things to happen in the game. But we won't know what that is for sure without more days and votes and kills happening, and by then it might be too late.

I posted this above yesterday afternoon.

This was in reference to the fact I alone knew, that I had not submitted a BG kill and yet no one died.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

On Night one, i intentionally decided to stay on myself, to game the wolves, figuring that even if one was on, they would go elsewhere. It wsa a gamble, I know, but I've won before with that gamble, and I haven;t played it in a while. I stopped bad guy, but I didn;t get any more info.

Wait, so not only did you protect yourself on Night One instead of GE, but you were targeted and got a block--on yourself? Not GE?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Wait, so not only did you protect yourself on Night One instead of GE, but you were targeted and got a block--on yourself? Not GE?

Very good point. Perhaps Chief Rum has some legs to his reveal indeed.

[DaddyTorgo]

Yeah...liking CR's story more. But as I said, that almost doesn't matter at this point - we put those 2 in a "side pocket" and deal with them later if need be.

JAG - what are your thoughts? I liked your analysis earlier.

[JAG]

What's your assessment of the remaining players CR?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

What's your assessment of the remaining players CR?

Gonna have to get back to you after my call here and then lunch.

But I have found a lot of traction in DT's original post where he laid out the good, presumed good and unknowns. So that will play into it.

Also, I need to look at the voting with new eyes, knowing who is what (except for the last wolf). I am sure that will have an effect too.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Yeah...liking CR's story more. But as I said, that almost doesn't matter at this point - we put those 2 in a "side pocket" and deal with them later if need be.

JAG - what are your thoughts? I liked your analysis earlier.

Don't really have the time to put out a big think / write at the moment and I'd like to hear what CR, Abe, and Autumn have to say on their suspects.

[mauchow]

Interesting turn of events for certain.

I don't believe Abe to be the BG so that is easy for me.

Then of course that leaves the others that aren't cleared minus me since I know I'm Vanilla Villager.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JAG

Don't really have the time to put out a big think / write at the moment and I'd like to hear what CR, Abe, and Autumn have to say on their suspects.

Sounds good.

[mauchow]

Eh, re-reading it over I guess I'm not sure that Abe isn't the BG but I guess it doesn't really matter since one of them is likely the sceptic so they'll count for a village win regardless. We'll let the wolves do the dirty work and guess between the two of them which is the BG if they want to try killing one of them off.

[Abe Sargent]

Sorry, just got a new externam HD in teh mail and had to spend the lsat few hours scanning it for issues. Now I'm abou tto start moving stuff there ad naeuseum

[Abe Sargent]

Doesn't look like there's been a lot of movement over the last few hours while I was away reading and working on this. I'll be back later after a few more hours to help us suss things out better.

[Chief Rum]

JAG
DaddyTorgo
Zinto
Abe Sargent
Autumn
Chief Rum
mauboy1

The above are the remaining players in the game. The key is to find the last wolf. Let's do some figuring.

Zinto has been scanned by the known seer and confirmed good.

Abe and I are in a tussle over the BG spot. Even if you don't believe me on that, we all seem to agree neither of us are the last wolf.

That leaves four possibilities for wolf: DT, JAG, Autumn and mauboy1.

At this point, let me present my theory on what happened Monday night. You'll have to accept my assertion that I am the BG and did not submit a BG protection that night.

There was no BG block, but no kill. How could this happen? I can only think of three ways:

1) No kill order was submitted.
2) The kill target was dead
3) The kill target was the Sceptic.

I am throwing out #1. Crimson Fox was around on Day One and I do not believe someone as active as he is would leave for work for the night without submitting a kill order. That leaves #2 or #3. In the case of #2, Simbo Klice was lynched, so he would have had to be the kill target for there not to be a kill. This is possible--CF actually voted for Simbo Klice. #3 is possible, but I consider it unlikely, since I believe Abe is the Sceptic. I don't think Abe the wolf would make the counter-reveal play he is doing now.

So I think Scenario #2 is by far the likeliest reason for no Night One kill. CF was at work, so he could not change his kill order. So that means the other wolf needed to be present to change that order when GE's reveal put the lynch target on Simbo Klice, in order for a kill to happen.

Since a kill didn't happen, I presume the wolf wasn't present for GE's reveal and the turn on Simbo.

That brings us back to our four: DT, JAG, Autumn and mauboy1.

We know DT and JAG were around. They changed their votes to save GE. They are not the last wolf.

That leaves Autumn and mauboy1 as the possible last wolf.

mauboy1 was not around at all for Day One. Autumn as, but stepped out during the key revelation by GE, by his own admission. So both were not around, and either could be the last wolf.

I am leaning toward Autumn being the last wolf. Why? Because the Sceptic (Abe) voted for Autumn on Day One. He in fact opened up all voting by voting Autumn. It has been a tactic in the past for the cultist role to vote a wolf to try to tip off the wolves to who he is. Abe kept his vote on Autumn all day, until finally switching to Simbo Klice in the rush to save GE.

So I believe the last wolf is Autumn.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Autumn]

Catching up.

[Autumn]

Chief, why do you think #3 is a possibility? Sorceror roles aren't immune to kills typically.

[Autumn]

I don't think we can necessarily say we're dealing with BG/Skeptic reveal. If Abe is the fake, yes, he has no reason to come out as wolf. But if Chief is the fake, he seemed a likely enough target that a wolf might reveal. Not too likely, but possible.

[Autumn]

That said, Chief's story doesn't seem as plausible as Abe's, if I compare them, but I find the tone of Chief's more believable. First reveal is typically the true one, that early in the day.

[Autumn]

THe thing is, if Abe is faking the reveal, why not say he protected GE night 1? That's a simpler, more believable lie.

[Zinto]

Well, interesting that we have a reveal and a counter reveal. I am leaning towards Abe being the BG. I already assumed that at some point there was going to be a counter reveal on the seer and Chief being suspicious of GE's reveal would have allowed him to fake reveal and point to posts where he questioned GE.

[Zinto]

Is it typical in games for the sorcerer to turn when he is night killed? I am not sure I have played in a game where that has been the case.

[Autumn]

I can't argue much with the analysis I'm seeing. I guess therefore I will vote Mau, becuase outside of Chief he seems the most likely other candidate. I myself would not exclude JAG and DT from the voting. I think it's very dangerous to make assumptions about what the wolves did or would do. I will not be shocked if it turns out DT is a wolf who flubbed changing the kill order and has been trying to turn that into protection ever since.

In my defense all I can say is I'm playing my regular game. I don't think a wolf puts CF into the vote yesterday in a game this small. Yesterday's results show why. Even though I ended up switching, it put CF in the conversation. A wolf with this many villagers to choose from picks one of them there.

[Autumn]

I guess that my list of who I would be likely to vote, from most to least likely is this:

mauboy1
DaddyTorgo
JAG
Chief Rum
Abe Sargent
Zinto

I'll vote Mau because I don't think peple sound willing to vote any of the night 1 residents. I put Abe near the bottom because I think if he's not the BG he's the Skeptic. Chief if he's not the BG could possibly be a wolf so I put him before that.

VOTE MAUBOY1

[mauchow]

This isn't defensive even though it looks like it.

vote autumn

I like chief's reasoning even if it leaves me as one of the two he'd vote for.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

This isn't defensive even though it looks like it.

vote autumn

I like chief's reasoning even if it leaves me as one of the two he'd vote for.

I like your last line on this...makes me feel better about you.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Chief, why do you think #3 is a possibility? Sorceror roles aren't immune to kills typically.

Oh, I didn't respond to this. Isn't the Sceptic as likely to be a cultist as a sorcerer? We're not really told what happens when the Sceptic is attacked by the wolves, so I would leave open the possibility of a conversion there, instead of a kill.

But in any case, I don't really think that has happened.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh, I didn't respond to this. Isn't the Sceptic as likely to be a cultist as a sorcerer? We're not really told what happens when the Sceptic is attacked by the wolves, so I would leave open the possibility of a conversion there, instead of a kill.

But in any case, I don't really think that has happened.

Oh, I see. Yeah, I don't think that's likely, but it's a possibility.

[Autumn]

Getting the kids into bed and hoping to watch a movie with my wife, so I won't be on much. I'll try to grab the iPad nad keep an eye on things.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Is it typical in games for the sorcerer to turn when he is night killed? I am not sure I have played in a game where that has been the case.

Not typical I would say. Definitely is a possibility in some rulesets but I would expect it to be laid out more clearly if so.

[Autumn]

Looks like I've got the majority of votes. I don't think there's a strong cause for either Mauboy or I, so not much I can do to argue the case. I'd just ask people to consider why they're picking me over him. Just because it's the prevailing opinion doesn't mean it's right. I cast an early vote on a wolf in an 11 person game. I'd say that's at least as good evidence in my favor than anything Mau has. But that's about all I can really point to, other than I hope generally useful play.

[Zinto]

Sorry guys it has been a long day. So, in Chief's BG scenario I cannot see Autumn falling asleep at the wheel and not sending in an order to get a kill. I can see why people would think that Mau is the wolf in Chief's scenario since I believe CF said he worked late and was not around. Mau was also not around so it is conceivable they did not send in a kill order.

[Zinto]

I don't see CF putting an early vote on Mau yesterday if Mau is a wolf since Mau was an easy place to stick a vote and could have been easily lynched if he had not shown up.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I don't see CF putting an early vote on Mau yesterday if Mau is a wolf since Mau was an easy place to stick a vote and could have been easily lynched if he had not shown up.

I find it the opposite. I think these days the tendency is to not lynch someone if they haven't checked in. He'd get a lot of votes, but they'd probably move before deadline.

[JAG]

Sorry I haven't been too active today. Reading along and thinking, but haven't had the time to come to a firm conclusion. I have to put the kids down and then I'll be back to write some stuff and make a decision.

[JAG]

I'm here and re-reading the thread before posting some thoughts.