Interesting times in Iran..

[molson]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

I am amazed (but not) that you guys think this situation would be better if the average citizens had firearms. Violence begets violence. There would be dead police as well as FAR more dead protestors. Imagine if the civil rights movement involved protestors firing back at police brutality.

I don't know if it would be "better", but its surely the only chance for regime change. The side that doesn't have firearms isn't going to win against the side that does.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Fixed.

thanks.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by molson

I don't know if it would be "better", but its surely the only chance for regime change. The side that doesn't have firearms isn't going to win against the side that does.

Dear molson,

I agree.

Sincerely,
The former Shah of Iran

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Dear molson,

I agree.

Sincerely,
The former Shah of Iran

well played sir

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I didn't see that.

Here ya go, I knew I remembered something along those lines from somewhere.

His camp, meanwhile, denied reports that he had proclaimed himself ready for martyrdom on Saturday.

"Mousavi has never said this," his close ally, Qorban Behzadiannejad, told the AP. Mousavi's Web site also said statements that Mousavi was preparing for death were inaccurate.

So I don't think it's a "he denied" outright, but both allies & his own web site denied it. The difference might be more along the lines of "isn't willing to admit" IMO, but I knew I saw something about that somewhere.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Reports out of Iran tonight say that the rooftop chants are deafening in some place in Tehran. Amazing how these people fight for their lives every day on the streets and then go on their roof for three hours each night and taunt the dictator. Wash, rinse, repeat. These people don't give up easy.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Amazing how these people fight for their lives every day on the streets and then go on their roof for three hours each night and taunt the dictator. Wash, rinse, repeat. These people don't give up easy.

Well it is somewhat easier to do the nightly rooftop thing when you've got an unemployment rate of at least 17% (and estimates as high as 30% for young & women). A lot of them don't exactly have much else to do right now.

Pre-election link with the reference, although their unemployment figures are notoriously hard to pin down.
As Iran Gets Ready to Vote, Economy Dominates - NYTimes.com

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Well it is somewhat easier to do the nightly rooftop thing when you've got an unemployment rate of at least 17% (and estimates as high as 30% for young & women). A lot of them don't exactly have much else to do right now.

Pre-election link with the reference, although their unemployment figures are notoriously hard to pin down.
As Iran Gets Ready to Vote, Economy Dominates - NYTimes.com

Pretty sure those estimates are really low. The Iranians I chat with over lunch on a daily basis say that 35-40% is much closer to reality.

Given that snipers have taken aim at people on rooftops here and there over the past week, I'm not sure that it is without risk. Brave stuff either way.

[CamEdwards]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Shouldn't you be smuggling guns into Iran or something?

And be accused of meddling? Heaven forbid!

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Given that snipers have taken aim at people on rooftops here and there over the past week, I'm not sure that it is without risk.

Excellent. Shooting at unarmed people on rooftops. What's next, secretly buying weapons from the United States?

[DaddyTorgo]

35-40% is what i've heard too

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

But imagine if the Colonists had had no access to firearms...

touche, my friend, touche. However, I would argue that this is a very different time. With mass media, globalism, etc, a revolution like the United States achieved in 1776 is very different from what we are dealing with today.

Originally Posted by molson

I don't know if it would be "better", but its surely the only chance for regime change. The side that doesn't have firearms isn't going to win against the side that does.

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Dear molson,

I agree.

Sincerely,
The former Shah of Iran

What he said.

[whomario]

just a side note sure, but anyway :
the Iran has had 4 soccer players "retired" and essentially banned for life yesterday (and confiscated their passports upon return, haven´t yet found a statement if that means they are actually trapped in Iran ?) who wore green wristbands to support the demonstrators in a June 17 game. They were forced to remove them at half time, Mahdavikia still wore a green captain´s band though for the 2nd half.
And not no-names but the team captain (Mehdi Mahdavikia) and it´s biggest star (Ali Karimi) .

and o yeah, that´s the official version : http://www.iransportspress.com/news/...009-06-24.html

yeah, right ...

[molson]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

What he said.

I'm confused about this point based on the different people making it, I can't tell whether it's literal or sarcastic.

Are you saying the Iranian rebels weren't armed and didn't have the support of the military in 1979? You're going to need one or both to get anywhere. Protesting is nice, but it doesn't accomplish anything on its own.

[molson]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

touche, my friend, touche. However, I would argue that this is a very different time. With mass media, globalism, etc, a revolution like the United States achieved in 1776 is very different from what we are dealing with today.

How exactly will they accomplish regime change with Twitter alone?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Pretty sure those estimates are really low. The Iranians I chat with over lunch on a daily basis say that 35-40% is much closer to reality.

I don't disagree, I was just trying to err on the side of a conservative estimate so nobody could accuse me of inflating the influence it would have on crowd availability.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Holy moly. Anybody see this cartoon from the Guardian? If you've seen the 'Neda' death video, you'll get the reference..........

25.06.09-Steve-Bell-on-Ir-002.jpg

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm confused about this point based on the different people making it, I can't tell whether it's literal or sarcastic.

Are you saying the Iranian rebels weren't armed and didn't have the support of the military in 1979? You're going to need one or both to get anywhere. Protesting is nice, but it doesn't accomplish anything on its own.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. The revolution in 1979, to my knowledge, involved no weapons on the side of the opposition.

Somehow my quoting of your "twitter" comment did not get multi-quoted. It's nice of you to take my reasoned statement and turn it into only being about "Twitter". I said nothing about twitter and I was not referring to twitter as the differencebetween today and 1776. You may not have noticed but we have the United Nations, television, telephones, the internet, aircraft, satelites, and many other things that did not exist in 1776. There was no hope for American colonists to use the global media in an attempt to make a peaceful break from Britain.

[RomaGoth]

Mousavi speaks out about the government crackdown. Anyone want to take a guess how long before he mysteriously disappears? Also, 70 professors that have spoken to him have been arrested. I am sure we will never find out what happens to them.

Iran opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi lashes out; 70 professors arrested - Los Angeles Times

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Yikes. Not for the faint of heart. This is what happens when you're a protestor on the streets and you say the wrong thing to a religious police officer carrying an ax........

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Interesting first-hand account of a reporter abduction.

http://tehranbureau.com/abduction/

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Mousavi speaks out about the government crackdown. Anyone want to take a guess how long before he mysteriously disappears? Also, 70 professors that have spoken to him have been arrested. I am sure we will never find out what happens to them.

Iran opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi lashes out; 70 professors arrested - Los Angeles Times

FYI......66 of the professors were released this morning.

[molson]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. The revolution in 1979, to my knowledge, involved no weapons on the side of the opposition.

Somehow my quoting of your "twitter" comment did not get multi-quoted. It's nice of you to take my reasoned statement and turn it into only being about "Twitter". I said nothing about twitter and I was not referring to twitter as the differencebetween today and 1776. You may not have noticed but we have the United Nations, television, telephones, the internet, aircraft, satelites, and many other things that did not exist in 1776. There was no hope for American colonists to use the global media in an attempt to make a peaceful break from Britain.

1979 was fueled initially by protests, but we only had regime change because of the armed street fighting towards the end, and most importantly, the Iranian military abandoned the Shah and was on the side of the rebels.

I was using Twitter as shortform for all of those things - none of which will cause regime change. There will have to be real violence, the threat of violence, or most hopefully, for those with the guns on the other side to join you.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by molson

1979 was fueled initially by protests, but we only had regime change because of the armed street fighting towards the end, and most importantly, the Iranian military abandoned the Shah and was on the side of the rebels.

I was using Twitter as shortform for all of those things - none of which will cause regime change. There will have to be real violence, the threat of violence, or most hopefully, for those with the guns on the other side to join you.

That's a pretty disinegnuous shortform then. You even said "twitter alone" as if to mean there was nothing else you were talking about.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by molson

1979 was fueled initially by protests, but we only had regime change because of the armed street fighting towards the end, and most importantly, the Iranian military abandoned the Shah and was on the side of the rebels.

When you say initially, you mean nearly a year of protests? There was a cycle of non-violent mourning protests, much like what we're going to see over the coming weeks in the current opposition movement. The fighting didn't occur until after a year of protests and the reason the military abandoned the Shah was BECAUSE of the protests. Basically speaking, the guys without the guns convinced the guys with the guns to come to their side through non-violent measures.

Everything achieved in that revolution was achieved through non-violent means, including the conversion of the police and military to their side. Sure, there were some flare-ups after that, but the Shah could see the writing on the wall and left pretty quickly after that.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's a pretty disinegnuous shortform then. You even said "twitter alone" as if to mean there was nothing else you were talking about.

I'm glad I clarified then.

The Internet/Protesting/UN don't cause regime change.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

When you say initially, you mean nearly a year of protests? There was a cycle of non-violent mourning protests, much like what we're going to see over the coming weeks in the current opposition movement. The fighting didn't occur until after a year of protests and the reason the military abandoned the Shah was BECAUSE of the protests. Basically speaking, the guys without the guns convinced the guys with the guns to come to their side through non-violent measures. Everything achieved in that revolution was achieved through non-violent means, including the conversion of the police and military to their side.

That's true, and if protests can cause the guns to change sides, that's great. I'm just saying at the end of the day, it's the guns that decide the power.

It's just an interesting hypothetical to me, I don't have a crystal ball to know what would happen. If there were established, armed, revolutionary groups in Iran, maybe this would already be over. Maybe just the threat of such a group would have encouraged clean elections. It's easy to be a corrupt government then the only thing you have to worry about is protesters, the internet, and the UN. I believe this regime will be able to hold out for much longer than the Shah did. Worst case scenerio, they have several years to be able to figure out how to deal with the peaceful protests until regime change becomes even a small possibility.

[JAG]

This situation of what will the military do makes me think of a great passage from A Song of Ice and Fire (a couple names changed so as to not to spoil for anyone):

"May I leave you with a bit of a riddle, Lord []?" He did not wait for an answer. "In a room sit three great men, a king, a priest, and a rich man with his gold. Between them stands a sellsword, a little man of common birth and no great mind. Each of the great ones bids him slay the other two. 'Do it,' says the king, 'for I am your lawful ruler.' 'Do it,' says the priest, 'for I ciommand you in the names of the gods.' ' Do it,' says the rich man, 'and all this gold shall be yours.' So tell me—who lives and who dies?"

[...]

"The king, the priest, the rich man—who lives and who dies? Who will the swordsman obey? It's a riddle without an answer, or rather, too many answers. All depends on the man with the sword."

"And yet he is no one," [] said. "He has neither crown nor gold nor favor of the gods, only a piece of pointed steel."

"That piece of steel is the power of life and death."

"Just so... yet if it is the swordsmen who rule us in truth, why do we pretend our kings hold the power?"

"Because these [kings] can call other strong men, with other swords?"

"The these other swordsmen have the true power. Or do they? Whence came their swords? Why do they obey?" [] smiled. "Some say knowledge is power. Some tell us that all power comes from the gods. Others say it derives from law."
[...]
[] cocked his head sideways. "Did you mean to answer your damned riddle, or only to make my head ache worse?"

[] smiled. "Here then. Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less."

"So power is a mummer's trick?"

"A shadow on the wall," [] murmured, "yet shadows can kill.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by molson

I believe this regime will be able to hold out for much longer than the Shah did. Worst case scenerio, they have several years to be able to figure out how to deal with the peaceful protests until regime change becomes even a small possibility.

It depends on what you mean by 'regime change'. Do you mean a full conversion away from the current form of government?

[CamEdwards]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

There was no hope for American colonists to use the global media in an attempt to make a peaceful break from Britain.

Actually, you're incorrect. After the events at Lexington and Concord, for example, the patriot leaders in Massachusetts took great pains to both write a comprehensive account of the battles, and to make sure that their account made it to England before Gen. Gage's official account did. They actually got their account published in England weeks before Gage's account arrived.

Additionally, the colonists used the 18th century version of Twitter (a series of messengers on horseback) to communicate the news of Lexington and Concord up and down the Eastern seaboard. By the evening of the 19th, residents of Providence, Rhode Island had been alerted to the battle. By the afternoon of the 23rd, word had reached New York City. By the 24th, Philadelphia. Heck, just a week after the battle had occured, residents of Alexandria, VA (and George Town, Maryland) knew what had happened.

I think it's also pretty evident that the Delcaration of Independence wasn't just written for an American audience. The "long list of abuses" that Jefferson listed was, at least in part, intended to influence European opinion of the Americans and their cause.

It's true that these aren't perfect parallels. As you say, this was 1775-1776, not today. But to say that our colonists were either uninterested or unsuccessful in using what amounted to the "global media" just isn't true.

[CamEdwards]

As for the whole question about guns and tyranny... it's just my opinion, but I believe that civilian ownership of firearms is a much better check on the formation of tyranny than it is in overthrowing an established tyrannical government.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

I think it's also pretty evident that the Delcaration of Independence wasn't just written for an American audience. The "long list of abuses" that Jefferson listed was, at least in part, intended to influence European opinion of the Americans and their cause.

Some might even say it was self-evident.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

Actually, you're incorrect. After the events at Lexington and Concord, for example, the patriot leaders in Massachusetts took great pains to both write a comprehensive account of the battles, and to make sure that their account made it to England before Gen. Gage's official account did. They actually got their account published in England weeks before Gage's account arrived.

Additionally, the colonists used the 18th century version of Twitter (a series of messengers on horseback) to communicate the news of Lexington and Concord up and down the Eastern seaboard. By the evening of the 19th, residents of Providence, Rhode Island had been alerted to the battle. By the afternoon of the 23rd, word had reached New York City. By the 24th, Philadelphia. Heck, just a week after the battle had occured, residents of Alexandria, VA (and George Town, Maryland) knew what had happened.

I think it's also pretty evident that the Delcaration of Independence wasn't just written for an American audience. The "long list of abuses" that Jefferson listed was, at least in part, intended to influence European opinion of the Americans and their cause.

It's true that these aren't perfect parallels. As you say, this was 1775-1776, not today. But to say that our colonists were either uninterested or unsuccessful in using what amounted to the "global media" just isn't true.

gotta say - Cam wins here

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

As for the whole question about guns and tyranny... it's just my opinion, but I believe that civilian ownership of firearms is a much better check on the formation of tyranny than it is in overthrowing an established tyrannical government.

Unless you have a tank factory hidden in the woods somewhere

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

Actually, you're incorrect. After the events at Lexington and Concord, for example, the patriot leaders in Massachusetts took great pains to both write a comprehensive account of the battles, and to make sure that their account made it to England before Gen. Gage's official account did. They actually got their account published in England weeks before Gage's account arrived.

Additionally, the colonists used the 18th century version of Twitter (a series of messengers on horseback) to communicate the news of Lexington and Concord up and down the Eastern seaboard. By the evening of the 19th, residents of Providence, Rhode Island had been alerted to the battle. By the afternoon of the 23rd, word had reached New York City. By the 24th, Philadelphia. Heck, just a week after the battle had occured, residents of Alexandria, VA (and George Town, Maryland) knew what had happened.

I think it's also pretty evident that the Delcaration of Independence wasn't just written for an American audience. The "long list of abuses" that Jefferson listed was, at least in part, intended to influence European opinion of the Americans and their cause.

It's true that these aren't perfect parallels. As you say, this was 1775-1776, not today. But to say that our colonists were either uninterested or unsuccessful in using what amounted to the "global media" just isn't true.

That's my fault for taking short form just as molson did. Yes, the colonists could reach a "global" (English) audience, but not at the same rate and not with the same coverage. Today not only through twitter, but through MSM contacts, Iranians are able to reach almost every corner of the world instantly. If it were 1776 it would have taken weeks for any account of the situation to reach Europe (I assume, but maybe my timing is slightly wrong). Could the colonists reach other parts of the world with their message? Of course. Is it really anything like today? I don't think you can even pretend like it was.

As for your statement about gun ownership preventing tyranny, I agree (I think, but haven't put a lot of thought into it). However, I think the idea that guns in the hands of the protestors in this specific case would improve the situation is just incorrect.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Lots of things reportedly going on behind the scenes to oust or significantly cripple the Supreme Leader's power.

Supreme Leader?

[CamEdwards]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

That's my fault for taking short form just as molson did. Yes, the colonists could reach a "global" (English) audience, but not at the same rate and not with the same coverage. Today not only through twitter, but through MSM contacts, Iranians are able to reach almost every corner of the world instantly. If it were 1776 it would have taken weeks for any account of the situation to reach Europe (I assume, but maybe my timing is slightly wrong). Could the colonists reach other parts of the world with their message? Of course. Is it really anything like today? I don't think you can even pretend like it was.

As for your statement about gun ownership preventing tyranny, I agree (I think, but haven't put a lot of thought into it). However, I think the idea that guns in the hands of the protestors in this specific case would improve the situation is just incorrect.

I think you're focusing way too much on how the means of communication have changed while ignoring the fact that the ends of this type of communication with the outside world are/were largely the same. Yes, communication was much slower back then. That hardly means it was less important.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

I think you're focusing way too much on how the means of communication have changed while ignoring the fact that the ends of this type of communication with the outside world are/were largely the same. Yes, communication was much slower back then. That hardly means it was less important.

this is true, because reaction time was also much slower.

[Flasch186]

welp, I have a feeling that this is over and all goes back to status quo except the hardliners are more emboldened, no?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

welp, I have a feeling that this is over and all goes back to status quo except the hardliners are more emboldened, no?

hmm?

[Flasch186]

well the crackdown has basically quieted the biggest revolutionaries and the uprising is becoming more and more underground...

all the while the hardliners ratchet up the US Israel rhetoric and continue to wait out the uprising. Me thinks their endurance rating isnt high enough to wait out the government's.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

well the crackdown has basically quieted the biggest revolutionaries and the uprising is becoming more and more underground...

all the while the hardliners ratchet up the US Israel rhetoric and continue to wait out the uprising. Me thinks their endurance rating isnt high enough to wait out the government's.

This is much different than a western world protest. The 1979 revolution went this way as well. There would be anywhere from 3-7 days in protests followed by a 20-25 day lull and then it would start all over again. Don't forget that the mourning protests were a big part of that movement and of most movements in Iran. We haven't even got to the 40th day following the deaths yet. I'd expect more major uprisings in another 30-35 days as the 40th day mournings begin. The 40th day after Neda's death will be especially explosive. In 1979, the government was dumb enough to kill people at the 40th day protests, which would repeat the cycle and more protests and uprisings would begin 40 days after that.

Don't confuse the relative lull for a government victory. Things in Iran work MUCH differently than they do in the western world. Also, the nightly rooftop protests have continued without end since the elections. If anything, they've gained strength with the daytime crackdowns.

[rowech]

I tend to agree that it's over. THe people tried and they put the hammer down. With that said, at some point, it'll happen....just isn't going to be this time around.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

This is much different than a western world protest. The 1979 revolution went this way as well. There would be anywhere from 3-7 days in protests followed by a 20-25 day lull and then it would start all over again. Don't forget that the mourning protests were a big part of that movement and of most movements in Iran. We haven't even got to the 40th day following the deaths yet. I'd expect more major uprisings in another 30-35 days as the 40th day mournings begin. The 40th day after Neda's death will be especially explosive. In 1979, the government was dumb enough to kill people at the 40th day protests, which would repeat the cycle and more protests and uprisings would begin 40 days after that.

Don't confuse the relative lull for a government victory. Things in Iran work MUCH differently than they do in the western world. Also, the nightly rooftop protests have continued without end since the elections. If anything, they've gained strength with the daytime crackdowns.

no offense but so far youve been off on this...as well. Much of what you said hasn't materialized and has simply been speculative, inaccurate, and assumptive. I'll believe what I see from the News reporters and while the information is sparse at best it seems to be more in line with what 'we' are seeing. The fever has died down and at 99.2 degrees, a fever doesnt accomplish much. Wanna make a bet about what happens in 30 to 45 days? This has nothing to do with Partisanship if you plan on throwing the martyr card and has everything to do with speculative misses and inaccurate directions...

to further prove my point:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090628/..._iran_election

Clashes today in Mousavi's hotbed of support...3000 protestors now. Down by a lot, is that #. Its a shame really but you cant blame them when theyre outgunned.

[Dutch]

So, can we at least call Iran a dictatorship now?

[Big Fo]

I thought we had been calling them that for awhile now.

[Flasch186]

well a theocracy no doubt.

[JonInMiddleGA]

What? You mean the revolution will not be Twitterized? Or rather, knowing how to play with the techno flavor of the month doesn't equal a revolution?

I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.

[Flasch186]

tell that to....

well go into the obama thread and tell that to'm.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Thousands of protesters back in the streets today hoping for a peaceful protest. Instead, battles are raging again. Reports of many wounded.

Guardian Council stated that the recount was complete after only a few hours and the results were certified with no irregularities found.

And, well, I'll let this speak for itself.........

Iran recount seen as bid to placate opposition - Yahoo! News

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, asked a top judge Monday to investigate the killing of Neda Agha Soltan, who became an icon of Iran's ragtag opposition after gruesome video of her bleeding to death on a Tehran street was circulated worldwide.

Ahmadinejad's Web site said Soltan was slain by "unknown agents and in a suspicious" way, convincing him that "enemies of the nation" were responsible.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

dola

Looks like that whole 'elections showed no irregularities' announcement didn't go over too well. Protest numbers swelled after the announcement and protests continued into the night.