WW - Nightmare Before Christmas (Game Over - Wolves Win!!!)

[Danny]

In fact a reveal before the night is not a bad idea if they are on.

[Autumn]

What's rudolph, Duke? Damn, those roles are fading fast, but glad to see we held on to our most important one. Hmm, pretty harsh night but catching one is fantastic. We finally have something to make out of vote histories I hope.

[Danny]

Sucks to lose Rudolph, but I was worried after Mrs Clause went down that we would lose seer. Hopefully we got a good scan result.

[saldana]

damn...i had actually cross posted with EF without knowing i was dead...i deleted it...good luck village

[EagleFan]

Day Four has begun!

[thejuggler3]

Ugh, but two roles in one night.

Thought it was odd that sal switched to Jackal instead of either Coffee or Martin who had more votes. Thought he might be either the duke and wasn't as concerned with dying or was the seer and had scanned Jackal maybe. Guess that answers that.

Hmmm, where does that leave us? Time to review and get ready for day three fun...

[Danny]

Now that we've found a wolf, I think we can get into some good vote analysis. Hopefully I'll be able to do some of that after floorball.

[Coffee Warlord]

One minor point to make...

First three votes on Jackal ... Lathum (353), saldana (381), Chief Rum (388).

As we now know saldana and CR are good, that's gotta put Lathum in pretty fair standing.

[Danny]

I'd also have a tough time believing the wolves would have killed off two Jackal voters and made Lathum and I the only uncleared players on Saldana if one of us is a wolf. I have Lathum at the top of my trust list knowing I am a villager as well.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'd also have a tough time believing the wolves would have killed off two Jackal voters and made Lathum and I the only uncleared players on Saldana if one of us is a wolf. I have Lathum at the top of my trust list knowing I am a villager as well.

What do you mean the only two uncleared voters on Saldana?

To play devil's advocate, the wolves may have felt they didn't have a choice. They probably saw what I saw, and what I assumed you saw, Danny, which was Chief Rum vouching for Saldana in a seer- like way. I took that to mean that he had scanned Saldana as good. They might have assumed they were the Clauses and not felt they could pick by voting record.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'd also have a tough time believing the wolves would have killed off two Jackal voters and made Lathum and I the only uncleared players on Saldana if one of us is a wolf. I have Lathum at the top of my trust list knowing I am a villager as well.

I originally was gonna say '4', with you being the 4th vote on Lathum and looking pretty good.

But I didn't/don't think I agree with your thought about Santa revealing.

[Lathum]

YES!

Feels good to be right.

FWIW I'll be traveling again most of tomorrow from Boston to NJ so will have very limited time.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

YES!

Feels good to be right.

FWIW I'll be traveling again most of tomorrow from Boston to NJ so will have very limited time.

Coming down to watch the game on Sunday? You want a Jackson or Vick jersey to wear?

[Lathum]

So at the time of Jackls D2 vote RA is the only unknown who had a vote on him. I find this interesting.

I also find it interesting that when RA changed his vote from CR to Sal he claimed it was to break a tie, which is true. However it looks bad for him that he went Sal instead of JAckel. The other two with 2 votes were Martin D and CW, both people I suspect.

for now

Vote RA

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Coming down to watch the game on Sunday? You want a Jackson or Vick jersey to wear?

bah, not to watch the game specifically, just for the holiday. I am very excited though, Saldana and another friend are coming for the weekend, as well as my sister and her 3 kids so it should be quite the party.

[Lathum]

Day 1

DaddyTorgo 5 - saldana (57), MartinD (67), Chief Rum (91), Lathum (109), thejuggler3 (121)
saldana 4 - Danny (97), Autumn (116), DaddyTorgo (126), The Jackal (137)
PackerFanatic 2 - Coffee Warlord (82), Darth Vilus (92)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (73)

No Vote- RA, PF

Day 2 Vote

PackerFanatic 8 - Autumn (196), Coffee Warlord (211), MartinD (227), Darth Vilus (241), saldana (247), thejuggler3 (281), Lathum (286), Raiders Army (306)
Darth Vilus 5 - PackerFanatic (225), Chief Rum (237), The Jackal (267), DaddyTorgo (276), Passacaglia (299)
saldana 1 - Danny (238)

The Jackal 5 - Lathum (353), saldana (381), Chief Rum (388), Danny (395), DaddyTorgo (416)
Coffee Warlord 3 - thejuggler3 (378), MartinD (379) , The Jackal (422)
saldana 2 - Autumn (364), Raiders Army (384)
MartinD 1 - Coffee Warlord (362)

OK, so guys in green are known villagers

Red are wolves

[Lathum]

Day 1

DaddyTorgo 5 - saldana (57), MartinD (67), Chief Rum (91), Lathum (109), thejuggler3 (121)
saldana 4 - Danny (97), Autumn (116), DaddyTorgo (126), The Jackal (137)
PackerFanatic 2 - Coffee Warlord (82), Darth Vilus (92)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (73)

No Vote- RA, PF

Day 2 Vote

PackerFanatic 8 - Autumn (196), Coffee Warlord (211), MartinD (227), Darth Vilus (241), saldana (247), thejuggler3 (281), Lathum (286), Raiders Army (306)
Darth Vilus 5 - PackerFanatic (225), Chief Rum (237), The Jackal (267), DaddyTorgo (276), Passacaglia (299)
saldana 1 - Danny (238)

The Jackal 5 - Lathum (353), saldana (381), Chief Rum (388), Danny (395), DaddyTorgo (416)
Coffee Warlord 3 - thejuggler3 (378), MartinD (379) , The Jackal (422)
saldana 2 - Autumn (364), Raiders Army (384)
MartinD 1 - Coffee Warlord (362)

OK, so guys in green are known villagers

Red are wolves

[Lathum]

Lots of interesting stuff in the votes.I find it hard to believe no wolves voted DT on D1. Now I know I am a villager. which puts juggler and Martin on my radar. Both of them went for a known villager D2 and both went with CW on D3, where Jackal was also. I feel pretty strongly based on that pattern one is a wolf and one likely is not. Hard to believe all 3 wolves vote CW today. A better play is vote JAckal, buy some trust, and let the brutal do his thing.

I know I am good, which means Danny is likely bad. h,,

Unvote RA
Vote Danny

I just find it really hard to fathom there wasn't at least one "buy trust" vote on the brutal.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

bah, not to watch the game specifically, just for the holiday. I am very excited though, Saldana and another friend are coming for the weekend, as well as my sister and her 3 kids so it should be quite the party.

That's cool. Hope you have a great weekend.

[thejuggler3]

I'm kind of suspicious about Danny due to the odd voting at the start and that Jackal move once things were basically settled. I'm nervous about RA because it seems like I don't have much info on him, and I don't like unknowns.

I trust DT the most of course, and Lathum more than anyone else.

MartinD and Autumn fall somewhere in the middle for now.

However, I gotta stick to my guns and go with who I think is still the most suspicious (barring a reveal or something else suspicious happening). Coffee said it himself:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

'Course, if Jackal turns out to be a wolf, ya'll are gonna char broil my ass tomorrow.

Vote CoffeeWarlord

[Lathum]

With 8 players left it may not be a bad move for the seer to reveal. We have DT who is trusted. If the seer has 2 good scans that leaves them two plus the actual seer, giving us only 3 people to choose from.

[Lathum]

dola- my math is off, it would be 4 cleared. The good thing is they off the seer for sure and we still have 3 cleared the next day.

If the seer has a wolf I say reveal for sure.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Lots of interesting stuff in the votes.I find it hard to believe no wolves voted DT on D1. Now I know I am a villager. which puts juggler and Martin on my radar. Both of them went for a known villager D2 and both went with CW on D3, where Jackal was also. I feel pretty strongly based on that pattern one is a wolf and one likely is not. Hard to believe all 3 wolves vote CW today. A better play is vote JAckal, buy some trust, and let the brutal do his thing.

I know I am good, which means Danny is likely bad. h,,

Unvote RA
Vote Danny

I just find it really hard to fathom there wasn't at least one "buy trust" vote on the brutal.

If this was the case, I find it unlikely that the wolves would kill off two of the four players who were on Jackal, it's basically asking for me to get heat as you were the first vote and likely to get some trust. I actually lean towards you being good and no wolves on Jackal today (even though I agree that in general a wolf would have been smart to put his vote there).

[Danny]

I am little worried about Autumn. He seemed to piggy back hard on my Saldana vote and use me as his reasoning. This could have been a play to avoid heat and instead turn it on me if Saldana was lynched and came up villager.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by thejuggler3

I'm kind of suspicious about Danny due to the odd voting at the start and that Jackal move once things were basically settled.

Thing were far from settled when I switched, the vote was tied 3-3 Jackal and Saldana and I believe two other candidates also had two votes and were options as well.

[Danny]

The person with the most trust has to be MartinD after he and Jackal exchanged early votes.

CoffeeWarlord appears heavily linked to Jackal, but would two wolves really make it that obvious?

I'm going with my gut at this point, but it can change depending on how things develop.

Vote Autumn

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So at the time of Jackls D2 vote RA is the only unknown who had a vote on him. I find this interesting.

I also find it interesting that when RA changed his vote from CR to Sal he claimed it was to break a tie, which is true. However it looks bad for him that he went Sal instead of JAckel. The other two with 2 votes were Martin D and CW, both people I suspect.

for now

Vote RA

Agreed. I think I look really, really bad. My votes were on CR and sal. doh. If I were out there, I'd vote for me too.

[Raiders Army]

I'll throw my vote out there today before I leave for work.

VOTE DANNY

I agree with Lathum's logic (awwww....today), but I think I would also be a logical choice today. I know I'm a villager, so that leaves me with Danny.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I am little worried about Autumn. He seemed to piggy back hard on my Saldana vote and use me as his reasoning. This could have been a play to avoid heat and instead turn it on me if Saldana was lynched and came up villager.

I did piggy back on you because I was under the impression you were the seer. I couldn't see any other reason for your D1 and D2 votes. They were out of character for you, casting a vote that was basically on a non-candidate, not giving any reasoning. The only reason I could find for it was that you were telling us you had a wolf.

That's why I was a bit lost when you suddenly switched votes. I looked back to see what made you switch and saw Chief's post about Saldana. I realized then you must not be the seer and I figured Chief was.

Which leaves me feeling unsure about you, Danny. Your D1 and D2 votes now go back to looking odd. And yes you flipped to vote for Jackal, but you did so after Chief hinted at clearing Saldana. I could see that as a wolf seeing the lay of the land and flipping to Jackal while he could still gain some trust and before Chief could reveal more. Maybe that's not it, but I would find it curious that no wolves would flip to Jackal when he was clearly done for most of the day.

I'm basically thinking between Danny and Coffee Warlord. It seemed he and Jackal were entangled that whole day, he came out pretty hard for Martin once Jackal had heat in the morning. I haven't had time to look over votes, but these are the two in my head right now.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just find it really hard to fathom there wasn't at least one "buy trust" vote on the brutal.

Only hangup is the fact that the Danny vote (the last vote from an unknown) came at 6:30. Gods plenty of time, at that point, to move things around, especially since it was still awfully close. Still a build trust chance, but I'm not sure it's as clear cut as you make it out to be.

For an extra point, if you can assume for a moment I'm a villager, the two alternate candidates yesterday would have clearly been myself and saldana (now a known villager).

That, I promise you, puts a wolf (possibly two) sitting in...Juggler, Martin, RA, and Autumn. RA is missing some voting records, but the other 3 have some pretty god-fricken awful records of killing villagers. A case could be made for any of them (and I've made my attempts at building a case on Martin for awhile now).

[EagleFan]

As of post 480:

Danny 2 - Lathum (468), Raiders Army (478)
Coffee Warlord 1 - thejuggler3 (470)
Autumn 1 - Danny (476)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Only hangup is the fact that the Danny vote (the last vote from an unknown) came at 6:30. Gods plenty of time, at that point, to move things around, especially since it was still awfully close. Still a build trust chance, but I'm not sure it's as clear cut as you make it out to be.

The thing that makes me question that though is that Chief had already posted that he was seeing Saldana as "very villagerish". Looking back through his posts at that point it seemed to me he was dropping seer hints, and I assume Danny saw the same thing, that's why he moved. So it was early, yes, but not if you thought Saldana might get cleared.

Danny, could you explain why it is you moved to Jackal? I've never seen an explanation from you.

[thejuggler3]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

That, I promise you, puts a wolf (possibly two) sitting in...Juggler, Martin, RA, and Autumn. RA is missing some voting records, but the other 3 have some pretty god-fricken awful records of killing villagers. A case could be made for any of them (and I've made my attempts at building a case on Martin for awhile now).

Odd to be saying with your voting record, Coffee, hahaha.

Okay, here's my thoughts on yesterday's voting. Correct me if I missed a vote somewhere. I was just jotting them down as I went:

RA started it off voting Chief. Lathum went Jackal. Jackal went Martin, and Coffee jumped on it. Autumn went sal. Martin jumped on it. Danny jumped on sal. I went Coffee. Martin switched to Coffee. sal voted Danny but then quickly shifted to Jackal. RA unvoted chief and switched over to sal. Chief went Jackal. Danny switched to jackal and DT solidifed. jackal switched to coffee.

So, here's my top three:

Coffee: I don't see why Coffee would still push Martin. In fact, he's pushing are just the people who voted for him. Martin seems reasonably safe to me, putting a second vote on Jackal early. If he had stuck with it, would have made me more secure, but still. Coffee's jump on Martin could have been him and Jackal creating a quick leader. They had never voted together in the past, so I can see it. Then again, when you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. I still think Coffee is the most suspicious.

RA: Any way you look at it, that was some absymal voting.

Danny: The vote over to Jackal to me doesn't save him. I had said I was going to switch to Jackal if it came to a tie. I think the writing was on the wall, so a switch to Jackal actually seems a bit suspicious, like trying to curry favor.

That's my thoughts on it. The only one I completely trust is DT of course

My vote still stands, but I always reserve the right to switch if need be.

[Autumn]

I'm suspicious of both Danny and CW. Since they both have votes, and so do I, I'm going to vote Coffee Warlord. Not because I'm more sure of him than Danny, really, but because I'd rather have the two of them be candidates, obviously, than me and one of them.

I think the case against Coffee was made pretty well yesterday. He made several moves that felt like trying to save Jackal, and it seemed to me he was hesitant to put Jackal ahead for good. It's rare to get two wolves on the block, but it would be stupid to not take advantage of it if we did.

VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

[EagleFan]

As of post 484:

Danny 2 - Lathum (468), Raiders Army (478)
Coffee Warlord 2 - thejuggler3 (470), Autumn (484)
Autumn 1 - Danny (476)

[Coffee Warlord]

I know I'm good. I prefer to think Danny is good. Therefore, forever more, et cetera et cetera...

Vote Autumn

[EagleFan]

As of post 486:

Danny 2 - Lathum (468), Raiders Army (478)
Coffee Warlord 2 - thejuggler3 (470), Autumn (484)
Autumn 2 - Danny (476), Coffee Warlord (486)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I know I'm good. I prefer to think Danny is good. Therefore, forever more, et cetera et cetera...

Vote Autumn

"I prefer to think Danny is good." I'm not sure that's the best rationale for a Werewolf vote. Interesting.

[DaddyTorgo]

Crazy day at work. May not get myself home till close to 9pm EST.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Autumn

"I prefer to think Danny is good." I'm not sure that's the best rationale for a Werewolf vote. Interesting.

"I think you are more likely a wolf than Danny." There ya be.

[MartinD]

Keeping it short and simple today, as I've had a long day at work after a short night of sleep...

I realise that it would be a bit strange for two wolves to try to push me as a candidate yesterday, but I thought that CW was a more likely wolf than The Jackal when I voted yesterday, and I haven't seen anything to justify changing my mind on CW.

VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

Sorry for not being able to contribute more today, but the brain just isn't up to much in the way of thinking tonight.

[Autumn]

Well since both my votes are coming from the two guys on the block today, I won't sweat it.

If you'd like to suggest why you think I'm a wolf I'd be glad to address any such questions. I already explained my vote from yesterday.

[Coffee Warlord]

Process of elimination. Of you (Autumn), Jugger, Martin, and RA, there is one, possibly two wolves in there. (I'm thinking two).

As for you specifically, you already had a vote, you're on my List of Four (tm), so there you go. Ordinarily I'd vote Martin again, but ya'll seem hell bent that he is a good guy. I just don't see it, and there's no way you guys would back me on it.

[Lathum]

I in no way am certain Martin is good. In fact I think he is very wolfy.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'd happily put him back on the block.

[Autumn]

Yeah I haven't had time to look back at the votes yesterday, but what is making people think Martin is good?

[thejuggler3]

Can you guys explain why you think Martin may be wolfy? I'm willing to listen. Not saying I plan on letting Coffee off the hook, but I'm curious because a lot of people are suspicious, and he hasn't been on my radar almost at all.

[Autumn]

He's not at the top of my candidates, but he did place the 2nd vote on a villager day one, the third vote I think day two. It's classic wolf strategy to get the vote going on the villager they want. He's otherwise been quiet, only throwing out some analysis when on the block - that's typical Martin play, but it makes it hard to get a read on him.

[DaddyTorgo]

Still at work. Conference call at 7PM EST. If I stop for dinner after, as I'm thinking I likely will, it will probably be close to 9PM EST by the time I make it home. Just FYI.

Going to try to catch up a bit here in between work.

[DaddyTorgo]

well let's see if we can't get a trending that way then...I'm so far buying CW's analysis of how things have broken down and the subset of 4 people, so if he's wolfing it on us, kudos to him for some great play.

VOTE MARTIND