06-20-2006, 08:22 AM | #451 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: ...down the gravity well
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All this talk of two elite guards...it is a possibility...anything is possible in this game.
We /know/ there is one pharoah. We /know/ there is one, at least one, elite guard. We /know/ there are multiple baddies, at least one is a boss, and a few underlings (4 or 5) We /know/ there is one, at least one, seer. These are the things we know...we know the ruling class lost a member due to the lynch. These are the absolutes, along with no deaths last night. Perhaps a conversion? This game is going to be more interesting because the baddies don't know each other, which means we can buy some time until we can find them, but like sands in the hourglass, or the Sahara for that matter, we're running out of time.
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"General Woundwort's body was never found. It could be that he still lives his fierce life somewhere else, but from that day on, mother rabbits would tell their kittens that if they did not do as they were told, the General would get them. Such was Woundwort's monument, and perhaps it would not have displeased him." Watership Down, Richard Adams |
06-20-2006, 08:23 AM | #452 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: ...down the gravity well
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Above when I meant (4 or 5) to baddies, that includes the boss.
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"General Woundwort's body was never found. It could be that he still lives his fierce life somewhere else, but from that day on, mother rabbits would tell their kittens that if they did not do as they were told, the General would get them. Such was Woundwort's monument, and perhaps it would not have displeased him." Watership Down, Richard Adams |
06-20-2006, 08:29 AM | #453 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
I am guessing last night there wasn't a conversion. Who would they convert if they do not even know who the other bad guys are? My guess is just like we have the day time to discuss who is or is not on our side, they must have some mechanism for building their circle of trust too. My guess is they spent last night to start working on their circle of trust instead of blindly killing anyone. So far from what I can tell in this game, the fireworks are all going to start on day 3. Several roles don't get to do certain things till day 3, and it will take a few days for the bad guys to figure out who each other are. |
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06-20-2006, 08:45 AM | #454 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Quote:
However, BECAUSE they don't know each other, these early votes are doubly useless. We can't try and connect any of the votes to bad guys, because not even the bad guys know who they are voting for. |
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06-20-2006, 08:59 AM | #455 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
No, I think there are no necromancers at all! Yay, we win! Anyway, hopefully we're not back to square one -- maybe someone will show up with a report of something that happened on Night 1. |
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06-20-2006, 09:01 AM | #456 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Qwik: How do we know there is an EG? How do we know there is a seer?
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06-20-2006, 09:02 AM | #457 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
Its kind of funny, but it made me think of an interesting twist for a Werewolf game though... Would be fun to play a game where there might not be any wolfs at all, and the only thing against you is your own paranoia. |
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06-20-2006, 09:02 AM | #458 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
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06-20-2006, 09:03 AM | #459 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
Yeah, thats pretty much what I figured and mentioned above. Like I said earlier this morning I have a feeling its going to be day 3 before we really start to see things develop |
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06-20-2006, 09:05 AM | #460 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
Still, compared to the handicaps the bad guys have I don't think we're nearly as handicapped, so there have to be mechanics out there we don't know about. |
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06-20-2006, 09:05 AM | #461 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
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06-20-2006, 09:08 AM | #462 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
Well some of our tools are limited, but our goal is still the same as every game. We need to develop ways to enlarge our circle of trust. It will kind of be like dealing with terrorist cells this game when we catch a bad guy, there is no gurantuee they will have any knowledge of any other bad guy, so not as much to go on. However if we create a tight enough circle of trust that is bulletproof, its only a matter of time to find them. |
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06-20-2006, 09:09 AM | #463 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Didn't I read in the rules about a disease too...could be someone will be dying without knowing it in a few nights and we'll have multiple deaths. Some might confuse this as a good assassian role too. just wanted to get that out there.
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06-20-2006, 09:10 AM | #464 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I agree circles of trust continue to be our best friend. Alas I have nothing to contribute to starting a circle.
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06-20-2006, 09:10 AM | #465 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
I think everyone would kick your ass after it was over. |
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06-20-2006, 09:12 AM | #466 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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The head bad guy has a power to cause someone to die after 2 days. This can be used twice. I don't think he'd use it yet since presumably more efforts were made to find the bad guys.
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06-20-2006, 09:13 AM | #467 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Ok, I think it's obvious that yesterday's voting data is completely meaningless in terms of finding a necromancer. Since they are not capable of synchronizing their votes yet, and since, presumably, they don't even know who they are yet, they were voting as blindly as we were - only, instead of hoping to hit a necromancer, they were hoping to not hit a necromancer.
However, while VOTES from D1 are meaningless, POSTS are not. I haven't identified any suspects from the posts yet, but I feel sure that somebody could. Also, I agree that the necromancers most likely spent last night searching each other out. |
06-20-2006, 09:13 AM | #468 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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In fairness to Alan I am likely going to be running a game on another forum where the game does not end for the good guys simply because they have found all the bad guys, as the good guys will be fighting with each other as well.
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06-20-2006, 09:14 AM | #469 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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By the way, what is a "scarab?"
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06-20-2006, 09:14 AM | #470 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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cronin I agree posting is still useful which is why I am OK, though not happy, with voting out Swaggs. I generally think posts only become useful after we gain some more context so I'm not sure how useful a d1 examination would be but would love to hear anything you find.
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06-20-2006, 09:15 AM | #471 | |
Coordinator
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Location: Not too far away
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06-20-2006, 09:16 AM | #472 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
I watched a movie over the weekend for the first time called "Cry_Wolf" in it people play a WW type of game I guess, but they expand it to some bigger RL thing. It just made me think of that some |
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06-20-2006, 09:23 AM | #473 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
The biggest problem I have with voting for someone like that on day 1 is you honestly don't know what reason is keeping them from the game. Maybe really swamped at work, or something in RL. I remember last game Blade voted for me because I wasn't there day 1 even though I said a week before the game even started that I wouldn't be in town till the following day if we started then I just think it gives an easy "out" vote to bad guys that doesn't look suspicious (he wasn't here, why wouldn't I vote for him?). I agree fully that someone who is not contributing to discussion or votes is not much better than a vote against you, but I usually like to at least give them a day or so to make sure something didn't come up. Everyone gave Tanglewood that luxury for instance but did not extend it to Swaggs. If tangle doesn't show up today I think he is fair game however. Day 1 votes is a crapshoot no matter which way you go I suppose. Just hate to see someone kicked out if something truly came up that day. |
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06-20-2006, 09:25 AM | #474 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Well swaggs came in to post two words. Even a "I'm swamped" would have been OK. And he was in the thread at least once after that vote.
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06-20-2006, 09:27 AM | #475 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
Nothing has jumped out at me yet. I'm very much in the dark at this point. |
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06-20-2006, 09:35 AM | #476 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: ...down the gravity well
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Quote:
Well, we have a Pharoah, and there is the Elite Guard order, ergo, there should be at least one Elite Guard...it makes sense. As for the seer(s), well that's easy, reading the rules about the scarabs...they're useless unless there was a seer in the game... This is of course Qwikshot logic not to be mistaken for Quiksand logic which is far superior.
__________________
"General Woundwort's body was never found. It could be that he still lives his fierce life somewhere else, but from that day on, mother rabbits would tell their kittens that if they did not do as they were told, the General would get them. Such was Woundwort's monument, and perhaps it would not have displeased him." Watership Down, Richard Adams |
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06-20-2006, 09:35 AM | #477 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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Necromancers!
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06-20-2006, 09:36 AM | #478 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Quote:
Yeah, that I understand. If I had to guess, I'd say this works much like a seer ability. Target someone at night, and find out if they are on your side. My point was largely that the early votes are going to be even more pointless than usual. We can't hope to ascertain a bad guy pattern when the bad guys themselves don't know each other, and probably won't for a couple more days. |
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06-20-2006, 09:36 AM | #479 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Ok I'm willing to buy your seer argument. The EG bit though? Not as much. Just because a pharoah can order it doesn't mean he can order it in this game.
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06-20-2006, 10:23 AM | #480 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
I got in late. Started to review the thread with like 25 minutes until the deadline and got a long distanced phone call, so I voted so I wouldn't miss the deadline. I was in the thread after the deadline but didn't want to be sour grapes. |
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06-20-2006, 10:27 AM | #481 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I'm sorry to hear that. I look forward to seeing you next game.
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06-20-2006, 10:30 AM | #482 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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won't be the same without charlie around.
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06-20-2006, 10:33 AM | #483 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
It never is. |
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06-20-2006, 10:33 AM | #484 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
As far as I can tell, my night order to the EG went through (got no notification that it didn't), so I think that might point to there being one.
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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06-20-2006, 10:34 AM | #485 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
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06-20-2006, 10:35 AM | #486 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Ok so now we go back to what we did yesterday?
day = vote night = hope I don't get killed This is basically the order of operations? |
06-20-2006, 10:35 AM | #487 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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06-20-2006, 10:39 AM | #488 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
Well I gotta try and help the good guys identify the bad guys before I can be a pro You suggested "outing" the EG earlier or waiting for someone to claim they are the EG? Why would someone claim to be the elite guard when they aren't? |
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06-20-2006, 10:41 AM | #489 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
If they were bad and wanted to not be lynched they might claim a good role.
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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06-20-2006, 10:42 AM | #490 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Yeah, I wasn't referring to numbers (and feel that's a blind alley), but just the fact that the order appears to have gone through suggests that there is a guard.
__________________
We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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06-20-2006, 10:44 AM | #491 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
One of the things we try to do is validate who is on our side through the roles they may have or the actions they do. The EG is listed as one of the Good guy roles, so we know whoever it is (if we have one), is on our side. So hypothetically speaking, if the bad guys were pretty confident they killed the EG one night before he revealed himself, one of them could pose as him and try to get our trust and into our inner circle. So this would make you think that well the EG should come out and reveal themselves now so they don't have that chance! The downside to that is once the EG does reveal himself, he becomes a target for the bad guys to kill off. Since his role is fairly useful for us, the EG has to balance when the best time to come out and reveal is. Usually its once they have been about as useful as they can (ie: have already protected the seer or some other important role). This game complicates that decision some however since the pharoah can repeatedly order the EG to guard an important person if they choose. |
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06-20-2006, 10:44 AM | #492 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Did you recieve an affirmative resposne or just no response? An affirmative response, meaning hoops sent you something, would seem to confirm the existence. No response though I think just means no response and we're still in the world of uncertainty.
Chubby: Fake role reveals are an important part of this game. The bad guys can claim to be something they're not so we trust them and as such don't kill them. |
06-20-2006, 10:45 AM | #493 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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All this talk about the EG makes me nervous. I don't want to know who the EG is, and I don't want anybody else to know either. Not yet.
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06-20-2006, 10:47 AM | #494 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
Thats why I wrote what I did. To try to encourage the EG to NOT reveal themselves at this point. |
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06-20-2006, 10:47 AM | #495 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Chubby: I have referred a few times to a circle of trust. This is an essential part of the game. The reasoning behind this was well illustrated last game: enough of us could vouch for other players that we greatly reduced the people who could be suspects. This gave us a smaller pooler to vote from and led to us eventually winning the game.
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06-20-2006, 10:49 AM | #496 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
K, that makes sense. I kinda learned that basically everyone says "I'm a good guy" at the beginning so they don't look like a wolf tho it has something do with the seer tho it might not apply to this game due to hoops running it or something. |
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06-20-2006, 10:49 AM | #497 | |
Coordinator
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06-20-2006, 10:50 AM | #498 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
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06-20-2006, 10:53 AM | #499 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
I like role reveals that also give information - when hoops revealed, he was also able to provide info that allowed that circle of trust to build. There have been other honest role reveals in other games that provided no info, and were therefore useful only to the bad guys. So at this point, unless somebody is a witness and knows a necromancer, or something like that, I'd prefer not to know any roles. Maybe the ruling class? |
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06-20-2006, 10:55 AM | #500 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
I think Hoops was a bit lucky too last game with how that went. We also had a seer reveal close after to his reveal plus there were clearly a few more roles more important than the Bodyguard out there known to deal with. I generally would say the bodyguard is good to keep in your back pocket until you have your seer reveal.. so you can have extended life from your seer. That does not apply to all games, but its something nice to have in my opinion. Coming out as the bodyguard before the seer reveal usually ends up in a dead bodyguard and no one to protect the seer. That said, I agree fully about coming out with roles when there are ways to validate them. Thats how the circle is formed.. but on certain roles that are key to exposing the bad guys, keeping them in the back pocket until they can provide us more info is good I think. You wouldn't want your seer to come out day 1 and say i dont have any info for you all, but I'm the seer! |
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