Werewolf CXXIX - Doctor Who and his Trusty Yak - WOLVES WIN

[Coffee Warlord]

After another crazy day, the TARDIS sets off for ancient times. Excited to get the smell and filth of the medieval era off of him, Narcizo exits the TARDIS immediately upon its landing, rushing out to a fine Roman bath. He doesn't find it strange at all that the bathhouse is totally empty.

...well, not totally empty. Narcizo doesn't even have time to scream as a Dalek fires, taking his head clean off.

Caesar welcomes you to Rome. Please pay your offerings to Bacchus.

Narcizo was a Citizen of the Ancient Era!

You are now in the ANCIENT Era. Day 4 has begun.

[Coffee Warlord]

[CrimsonFox]

I got a great corkscrew!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooo!

[Autumn]

That actually doesn't surprise me at all. Should be useful looking back over the day now. Did anyone keep a vote history?

[Autumn]

I had suspected Chief, an experienced villager who pushed for me I thought spurious reasons. But with the way the night went, I'm looking elsewhere now. Probably early voters on me, Narcizo and DT.

[Autumn]

I suspect we have one or more wolves voting CF on Day 1, since their kills have been careful not to narrow down the CF voters (notable since there were so many of them, you'd think it would be the place to go with kills).

I also suspect that at least one of the early voters today was a wolf. As best as I can see from reading through, the only name that comes up in both of those cases is Lathum. Barring some other spark of genius I will probably vote there.

[Lathum]

amazing that I have been onto Autumn the last 2 days and he magically narrows it down to me.

[Autumn]

Lathum, your evidence for me has been that I suggested it might be all right to leave it a tie in a game where we know we have double voters. Hmm, I wonder what I meant by that?

And that the wolves used a crazy mechanic to end the day after I voted, and then night killed people to narrow down the bhlloy voters between JAG and me. How bad at being a wolf do you think that I am?

I'm considering voting you just based on you being on those lists, not really because you're after me. But still, it doesn't make sense to me for an experienced villager to be picking me out of the crowd.

[Darth Vilus]

Ah damn, well that could have been much worse. Let's hope we can do a bit better tomorrow

[Autumn]

I should also say, if I was a wolf I would never vote for a villager Lathum. In fact I never do! I know that's the easiest way to get his attention and that he's tenacious. I only consider voting him if it's worth it to take the heat.

[Lathum]

What list? The list that I voted early and I was a CF voter? Hardly damning...

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

What list? The list that I voted early and I was a CF voter? Hardly damning...

Do you have some damning evidence for us? Because I'm sure we'd all love to have some. Of course it's not damning, this is day 4 of a werewolf game.

[Autumn]

I'm heading out soon. I'll see in the morning if that still seems the best vote (I certainly am not going to vote first again!). FWIW, Lathum, I have about 5 people on that list, I may vote for whichever one makes me suspicious. You just came up twice - so far yo'ure the head of the list.

[thejuggler3]

Sorry, Autumn, going to try this again.

I'll see if we can get past the last-minute block vote changing that saved you last night.

Vote Autumn

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by thejuggler3

Sorry, Autumn, going to try this again.

I'll see if we can get past the last-minute block vote changing that saved you last night.

By which you mean? JAG Voting for DT And me voting for DT? It was a tie vote most of the day as far as I could see reading back. I'll plead guilty to trying to change the vote when I got on. But otherwise I don't see how you can characterize last night as "last minute block vote changing".

[JAG]

So we're at 10-5 more than likely (villagers to wolves) with all five of our main people per era left? And we haven't gotten anything yet from any of them nor from our Doctor as far as we are aware?

[Autumn]

I checked back to see if I was crazy, but no, the only movement "late" was DT voting for me, me voting for him and JAG voting DT. I don't know you well enough, juggler, to know whether to make something of this mischaracterization.

[JAG]

I'm finding the actions (or lack thereof) of a number of vets suspicious. My guess is if Danny were around he'd call J23 suspicious with his early vote on CF D1 and non-vote (and practically non-participation) D3. My point about CR from yesterday still stands. I think Autumn has a reasonable point about Lathum. Then there are lots of people who have barely posted at all that it's hard to get a beat on almost any of them (which is understandable for the ones that are wolves). I get the feeling not too many people have time or are willing to put much into the game.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I should also say, if I was a wolf I would never vote for a villager Lathum. In fact I never do! I know that's the easiest way to get his attention and that he's tenacious. I only consider voting him if it's worth it to take the heat.

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm finding the actions (or lack thereof) of a number of vets suspicious. My guess is if Danny were around he'd call J23 suspicious with his early vote on CF D1 and non-vote (and practically non-participation) D3. My point about CR from yesterday still stands. I think Autumn has a reasonable point about Lathum. Then there are lots of people who have barely posted at all that it's hard to get a beat on almost any of them (which is understandable for the ones that are wolves). I get the feeling not too many people have time or are willing to put much into the game.

My experience with games like this is people tend to be quieter the first few days until they get the rules down.

[thejuggler3]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I checked back to see if I was crazy, but no, the only movement "late" was DT voting for me, me voting for him and JAG voting DT. I don't know you well enough, juggler, to know whether to make something of this mischaracterization.

Sherman, set the wayback machine to post 401, where ChiefRum votes for Autumn.

Post 403, Sal votes DT.
Post 404, JAG votes ChiefRum, although at the end he unvoted CR to switch to DT.
Post 406, EagleFan votes DT.
Post 407 - Zinto votes DT.

Now, I know that people don't want a runaway vote, but something is just rubbing me the wrong way about last night's votes and how quickly Autumn got saved. I was not surprised in the least when JAG voted off ChiefRum and onto DT to save Autumn.

Again, I usually guess very, very wrong in these games, but at least I'll stay consistent in my suspicions and go down swinging.

[Lathum]

I would be very surprised if Jag and Autumn were both wolves and very surprised if one of them wasnt a wolf.

So the question is if Autumn is a wolf was someone trying to save him? and who?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My experience with games like this is people tend to be quieter the first few days until they get the rules down.

I guess I was more expecting it to be like the Vegas and GF games we had recently which were complicated but had a lot of chatter.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ut elit CDLXX:

I: Autumn

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would be very surprised if Jag and Autumn were both wolves and very surprised if one of them wasnt a wolf.

So the question is if Autumn is a wolf was someone trying to save him? and who?

You're right about the first and probably wrong about the second. Your reasoning would be that wolves usually spread out? Dont you find it suspicious how many players voting bhlloy they killed? Or that they appeared to set up Autumn with the D2 shenanigans?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by thejuggler3

Sherman, set the wayback machine to post 401, where ChiefRum votes for Autumn.

Post 403, Sal votes DT.
Post 404, JAG votes ChiefRum, although at the end he unvoted CR to switch to DT.
Post 406, EagleFan votes DT.
Post 407 - Zinto votes DT.

Now, I know that people don't want a runaway vote, but something is just rubbing me the wrong way about last night's votes and how quickly Autumn got saved. I was not surprised in the least when JAG voted off ChiefRum and onto DT to save Autumn.

Again, I usually guess very, very wrong in these games, but at least I'll stay consistent in my suspicions and go down swinging.

Thanks for posting that, juggler. I didn't look back as far as that I guess.

That said, I don't find that unusual at all. This is how votes work in WW: someone gets a few votes. People start freaking out that that person is going to be a runaway, start voting elsewhere. People start freaking out that the person that got votes first is being saved, start voting him. So on and so forth until deadline at which time people freak out about there being a tie.

I got online 15 minutes before the deadline and found myself one vote ahead, so I'm having a hard time feeling like people were going out of their way to save me.

Frankly, knowing that it was villager/villager yesterday as I do, I think we have to look more at in-thread talk and time travel choices, night kill choices than votes. But I expect to get my fair share of votes just for getting votes yesterday.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That said, I don't find that unusual at all. This is how votes work in WW: someone gets a few votes. People start freaking out that that person is going to be a runaway, start voting elsewhere. People start freaking out that the person that got votes first is being saved, start voting him. So on and so forth until deadline at which time people freak out about there being a tie.

That's awesome. This should probably be added to EF's list.

[Autumn]

Day 1 votes

tyketime - mckerney (72)
crimsonfox - J23 (106), zinto (155), bhlloy (171), chief rum (179), saldana (233), thejuggler (240), lathum (284)
bhlloy - autumn (108), crimsonfox (198), ntn (209), JAG (225), danny (261)
eaglefan - darth (153)
ntndeacon - narcizo (122), eaglefan (157)
saldana - daddytorgo (158), dubb (170), dwardzala (207)

[Autumn]

Day 3 Votes

6 Autumn - Lathum (382), thejuggler3 (386), mauboy1 (392), mckerney (398), Chief Rum (401), DaddyTorgo (426)
7 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (383), tyketime (395), saldana (403), EagleFan (406), Zinto (407), JAG (433), Autumn (436)
3 Narcizo - Darth Vilus (391), dwardzala (394), dubb93 (399)

[JAG]

Autumn, mauboy had a vote on ntn also, post 150.

[Autumn]

Day 1 votes

tyketime - mckerney (72)
crimsonfox - J23 (106), zinto (155), bhlloy (171), chief rum (179), saldana (233), thejuggler (240), lathum (284)
bhlloy - autumn (108), crimsonfox (198), ntn (209), JAG (225), danny (261)
eaglefan - darth (153)
ntndeacon - narcizo (122), mauboy1 (150) eaglefan (157)
saldana - daddytorgo (158), dubb (170), dwardzala (207)

[Autumn]

We've got a lot of quiet players, and a lot of buried votes . Likely we've got wolves in there somewhere, but who knows where. It's hard to say without knowing who had the chance to be in later to change their votes but didn't. Interesting that Dubb, Dwardzala and Darth all had their votes on non-main candidates both days.

[Autumn]

Of those I've found Dubb unusually quiet. Darth has been quiet, though that's been more the norm of late - however Danny dying is always a point of suspicion in his corner. He likes to take him out when he's a wolf. Dwardzala I take as playing his usual game, looking back over his posts I don't find then suspicious. I would maybe vote one of the two others, though it may just be that they're busy.

[EagleFan]

Will check back in this afternoon as work posting has become touch and go (the IT police are out thanks to someone being caught being an idiot).

A couple of things that stand out to me.

JAG's vote yesterday for CR. Still seems a little puzzling.

The abbreviated day 2 seems like a setup of Autumn (but it could also be a reverse psychology move to make us think that).

Lathum's day one vote first stood out but seeing it was villager/villager I don't know why a wolf would make that move to make themselves stand out. Unless it is the cunning trying to get scanned but that is an arguement that never seems to pan out.

A couple of interesting night kill choices. Why ntn night one? I would think that they would want to go after a more talkative player. Will try to get the time to look over his posts, they had to be seer hunting and picked up on something.

As for the time era. It seems obvious that they wanted to keep it in modern early but why medieval after the abbreviated day? Was that something that the wolves caused or maybe the doctor himself? If the wolves caused it, what was special about that time period that helps them? If the doctor did it, maybe he knows something about that time period.

[JAG]

EF, if anything my CR vote should look better now. As a wolf, am I putting myself out there when there were two known villagers available to vote for?

I like your other thoughts though. I had the same thought of Lathum after D1, almost like he was trying to play suspiciously. But he's often bold so Im not convinced how to look at it. Your point about the timeframe is interesting too. It looks like at this point staying in the Ancient era is the safer choice with Medieval being next best but more risky as particularly good or particularly bad.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Lathum's day one vote first stood out but seeing it was villager/villager I don't know why a wolf would make that move to make themselves stand out. Unless it is the cunning trying to get scanned but that is an argument that never seems to pan out.

A couple of interesting night kill choices. Why ntn night one? I would think that they would want to go after a more talkative player. Will try to get the time to look over his posts, they had to be seer hunting and picked up on something.

It's a good point about Lathum's vote day one. Though I think any experienced villager breaks a tie at that stage, and Lathum's a smart enough wolf to try to play exactly as he would as a villager. Yes it puts him in the spotlight, but he's good enough to play the "why would I do that?" card.

The night kills are interesting to me too. My guess for NTN is that they picked up that he was playing a bit differently. We were all commenting on how he was a big more talkative. They might have suspected that therefore he had a role.

I'm not sure if the vote count played into it. At that point there were 4 uncleared voters on Bhlloy. They narrowed it down to 3 by killing NTN, maybe hoping that people would vote there? In addition it showed Narcizo and EF as having voted for a villager.

It's strange, as a wolf I would have either picked someone from the longer voting list on CF, or pick someone like Mckerney or Darth who was out of the vote entirely.

In the end though I have to guess they just were seer hunting and thought NTN was playing odd.

[Autumn]

Oh I meant to say, Danny is something of a curious pick in that it seemed obvious that he was not the seer. Killing an experienced villager who might become trusted because of his semi-reveal isn't a bad choice, but I would have expected the wolves to go elsewhere for the time being. That's what makes me look a bit in Darth's direction since i know when we're wolves he likes to target Danny.

[Coffee Warlord]

ARE YOU NOT ENTER-TIMED?

[Autumn]

I'm going to go ahead and vote to stay here, as far as we know this is the best spot for us, and hopefully the baddies have used up their means of screwing with us.

TIME ANCIENT

[Lathum]

I will hopefully have a little more time today. I know when I hone in on someone it is hard for me to look elsewhere, but I am going to try and look at other options. I may end up back on Autumn in the end, but will try and look for other patterns or clues.

[Autumn]

I'm feeling like so far we've had a bunch of villager/villager voting, and the wolves are content to sit back and let us shoot ourselves in the foot. I'm think I'm going to hang back and make the quieter players step up and suggest some votes today.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Of those I've found Dubb unusually quiet. Darth has been quiet, though that's been more the norm of late

I think you are painting a less than clear picture here considering I have no recent history.

[Autumn]

Well, obviously I mean compared to games I remember with you. I don't recall you being an UTR player.

[J23]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm finding the actions (or lack thereof) of a number of vets suspicious. My guess is if Danny were around he'd call J23 suspicious with his early vote on CF D1 and non-vote (and practically non-participation) D3. My point about CR from yesterday still stands. I think Autumn has a reasonable point about Lathum. Then there are lots of people who have barely posted at all that it's hard to get a beat on almost any of them (which is understandable for the ones that are wolves). I get the feeling not too many people have time or are willing to put much into the game.

Sorry I disappeared and have been absent. I haven't had much time at all to do much. Catching up on the thread and happenings the last couple days now and will post my thoughts, etc before I have the chance to disappear again.

[Lathum]

looking at the voting from the first couple of days I am having a hard tiome seperating Jag and Autumn. The fact they were the last 2 voters on DT certainly makes it look like they were saving Autumn. The thing is I find it hard to believe they both voted together day 1.

Darth also seemingly has buried his votes, but I haven't looked to close at that.

Thoughts?

[J23]

I think Darth does that most games that I've seen. Whether due to his work schedule or something else, I've noticed he's done a lot of drive-by votes the last few games.

[J23]

Here's day3 btw:

lathum votes autumn(382)
Narcizo votes DT(383)
juggler votes autumn(386)
DV votes Narcizo(391)
Mauboy votes autumn(392)
Dwardzala votes Narcizo(394)
Tyketime votes DT(395)
mckerney votes autumn(398)
dubb votes Narcizo(399)
chief votes autumn(401)
saldana votes DT(403)
Jag votes chief(404)
Eaglefan votes DT(406)
Zinto votes DT(407)
Dt votes autumn(426)
Jag unvotes chief(428)
Jag votes dt(433)
autumn votes dt(436)

[J23]

vote Eaglefan

He was one of the three that vaulted DT to the top above Autumn yesterday, which seems a suspicious run.

The day one vote on Ntn looks like a fine place to leave a vote buried. It was initially a self-defense vote (or any other lame day1 reason), but it didn't move once the votes began to matter.

Obviously all of this isn't much to go on, but at least it's something.

[EagleFan]

Was hoping to see a little more action since my last post. This will be much harder with so few posts to go on.

It seems that Autumn and JAG are keeping the conversation going. Maybe I am missing someone but they are who stand out.

That makes me feel rather confident that there is little chance that BOTH of them are wolves. There could still be one wolf between them but I can't see two wolves carrying the bulk of conversation.

Autumn is generally chatty so I don't see any change in his game. That really doesn't say anything one way or the other to be honest. If he were a wolf he wouldn't want to pllay any differently and as a villager he would be doing business as usual.

From what I remember about JAG he runs hot and cold with his participation. My guess is that it is based upon availability as I don't remember noticing him one way or the other depending on what side he is on.

[JAG]

J, if you think the run was suspicious, why wouldn't you vote Autumn himself? The only way your assertion makes sense (the run being suspicious) is if he is a wolf and people were trying to save him.

[EagleFan]

To answer J23's issue with my day one vote. I was helping my daughter with her homework after her lacrosse practice that night. The next thing I knew the basketball game was coming on and I realized I missed getting back on to see what was happening.