Werewolf XL: The Trial of the Aes Sedai (game over, AES SEDAI win)

[Lorena]

Wohoo!!!

[Schmidty]

There was a vote today????? I didn't think we were going to be active on the weekends...........That sucks.

At least we got a bad guy.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

There was a vote today????? I didn't think we were going to be active on the weekends...........That sucks.

At least we got a bad guy.

this reeks to me

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Lathum

this reeks to me

Me, too. Especially since we've known since Thursday that we were playing on the weekend. I'll also be curious to hear why Mr. Wednesday missed another vote as well.

[RPI-Fan]

Boo-yah!

[RPI-Fan]

Ok, so I think we have a lot more to go on, now... please take particular notice of the people who were notably evasive of me following my numerous accusations of LSG.

[Lathum]

i think we need to look at the people who voted for lsg, i'm certain there will be a wolf hiding in there

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Ok, so I think we have a lot more to go on, now... please take particular notice of the people who were notably evasive of me following my numerous accusations of LSG.

Part of me wonders if Blade and Lathum are putting on a show for us.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Part of me wonders if Blade and Lathum are putting on a show for us.

did you play in the necromanser game?

[LoneStarGirl]

Bah Humbug.

[Blade6119]

good job everyone

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

did you play in the necromanser game?

Yep, its not the hostility to each other that I somewhat feel is a show. I thought about voting for Chief today for a bit until I saw how easily you and Blade put aside your differences to vote together on him when it was still a close race between a few people.

In the end, I had no idea if LSG was good or bad, but figured I would put a vote out there to prevent anyone making any last minute changes to bring it close.

[Blade6119]

If i had wanted to work with other wolves to save LSG, JE was the obvious choice. Its was 3-2 at the time, and instead of tying it up i went out and placed a vote on a person with no votes(something ive done every day). Lathum and chief are my top suspects, and i will be voting one tomorrow. If you think me voting chief was the smart move to save LSG, then quite frankly your a worse player then i thought.

But ill hold back on saying anything else until the night is over.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Actually, it was 2-2 at the time of your vote.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Actually, it was 2-2 at the time of your vote.

But you hadnt voted, you were one of the ones on the block. You were a given to vote for LSG in self-preservation, and you did. In that situation, your vote is already a given. So it was 3-2, whether you had voted yet or not.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

If i had wanted to work with other wolves to save LSG, JE was the obvious choice. Its was 3-2 at the time, and instead of tying it up i went out and placed a vote on a person with no votes(something ive done every day). Lathum and chief are my top suspects, and i will be voting one tomorrow. If you think me voting chief was the smart move to save LSG, then quite frankly your a worse player then i thought.

But ill hold back on saying anything else until the night is over.

Leaving personal insults out of it....

I had this as the voting for the day:

rpi votes lsg (1)
DC votes jon (1)
brian votes lsg (2)
lsg votes jon (2)
chief votes blade (1)
blade votes chief (1)
jon votes Lsg (3)
lathum votes chief (2)
dc unvotes jon (1)
dc votes lsg (4)
alan votes lsg (5)

Now part of saving someone from the lynch is the art of doing so without looking like you did. The part that was really fishy to me was that I purposely was one of the last 4 non voters on purpose for most of the day. I entered in suspicious because I wasn't feeling very good about DC and was watching to see how the vote went.

Then when I got frustrated with Chief and brought it up, it suddenly became the vote for Blade and Lathum (who were/are at war with each other). That just either seemed convienant or something. I guess part of me wondered if it was expected I might vote for Chief, and thus me being the person who saved LSG on the lynch.

Then after the lynch Lathum came out and said he thinks the best place to look for another wolf was the people who voted for LSG... So that includes RPI (who we assume is good), Brian, Jon (who could have saved himself just as easily by voting chief at that point as LSG if he wanted), DC (who was the condemning vote by moving from jon to LSG) and myself.

Out of that group, the only logical choices for Lathum's supposed hidden wolves would likely be myself or Brian. I just don't see that stretch is all, so for today, the oddest play for my tastes was you and Lathum. Thats why part of me wonders if there is a show going on here or not.

[RPI-Fan]

DC's late switch also seems a bit odd at this point...

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

DC's late switch also seems a bit odd at this point...

That is to say, her late switch, given that she allegedley was just guessing on LSG anyways, does not make much sense. Why switch to LSG when you are just as convinced she is bad as is anyone else?

[Lathum]

Alan, I thin Jon or DC could easily be wolves. It's not uncommon for the wolves to sacrifice one of their own to save face and when they make that move they are often the deciding vote to make it look better

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

DC's late switch also seems a bit odd at this point...

Well, I've been trying to figure that out. I didn't have much against DC other than her responding overly defensively to my trying to analyze some of her earlier moves. (So defensively when there wasn't really any pressure, it felt like guilty talk).

Other than that, I don't really have a bad feel about her. THe thing is I assume there are two bad guys left now right now. Maybe thats a bad assumption, but at the time of her switch it was 3-2 with most likely 2 bad guys out there somewhere. No one knew where I was going to vote yet (I didn't know myself) so in a sense DC's vote was the condemning vote. Obviously if DC is good, and there are two other bad guys out there they -could- have still saved LSG after her vote (but not after mine) but that type of move would have been very suspicious.

I have seen people with moves damning a bad guy to buy trust before when they were bad several times, so its not something I put past her, but right now there are quite a few people I suspect more than her.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

That is to say, her late switch, given that she allegedley was just guessing on LSG anyways, does not make much sense. Why switch to LSG when you are just as convinced she is bad as is anyone else?

Uh... weren't we all guessing that LSG might be bad? You had a "hunch", never really elaborated other than a "gut feeling", so as far as I'm concerned, your guess was as good as mine.

[Lorena]

We probably shouldn't be having these discussions now right? I'll refrain until the night is over.. hopefully we find something out with tonight's kill.

[Chief Rum]

I see I got a couple votes and a lot of suspicion, although, frankly, I suspected that after my post this morning.

I, in fact, did miss a detail up until now, not noting a short post by Alan shortly after his dream revelation on Day Two in which he clearly states he did not receive any dream details except that he had "vivid" dreams of PlayerX (soon to be revealed as BrianD). It seems that RPIFan and Jon Ez have essentially corroborated this with their own experiences (although it should be noted I was in a rush this morning, and Jon's post was the very last one before I started my post--several posts happened before I hit 'Enter'--and I didn't really give it my full attention).

So for any confusion on that, my apologies. Ever since the game has started, I feel as if I have been in a bit of a rush. I am working 8-5 most days now (PDT), which means I have no chance of getting home by deadline at all, which is also earlier than most people have it. Then on Friday, I worked my second job and was asked to stay until closing (2 a.m. my time). Not only did that mean no input from me Friday night, but half of my Saturday (my only full day off) was blown to bits by sleeping off some 17+ hours of work Friday.

So I haven't been able to give the game my full attention, and apologize if I have not been able to be as detail-focused as usual.

Nonetheless, I did say this morning that LSG's actions have struck me as odd, and sure enough, she was a wolf. I still find Blade's actions weird, but I am still digesting today's vote. The Lathum-Blade double vote strikes me as extremely curious.

In any case, I am around right now, so if anyone has any questions, please do ask them now. I will be glad to answer your concerns. I will be away at work tomorrow again, so now is the best time.

I am reviewing posts right now, and if I have something further to add, I will do so.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

We probably shouldn't be having these discussions now right? I'll refrain until the night is over.. hopefully we find something out with tonight's kill.

Since we're working with supposition right now and precious little fact, I don't know that a lack of discussion would do anything except freeze me out of my one good chance to participate, and make you all more suspicious of me. I would rather continue to consider what we have here before turing in.

[BrianD]

For the record, I voted for LSG very early in the day and then was out the rest of the day, as I announced. That should be a pretty good indication that I'm on the good team. I wouldn't have voted for a fellow bad person early and then not be around to try to keep her safe.

Alan, you asked earlier why I looked at JE last night. I took a shot that he was the right person to look at. It turned out that I was wrong, but from the fairly random results from the night before, a random choice seemed to be a reasonable choice.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Lathum

this reeks to me

Regardless, it's the truth.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Very happy to see we hit with the vote today. I have no valid excuse for missing it -- I watched the Pats game and went to a hockey game, but I was back with about an hour and a half to go, and even after watching the end of the Pats game I still had fifteen minutes left.

[st.cronin]

I have recieved all night actions and will run the night early. Results coming.

[st.cronin]

You awake and gather, and again, one of your society is missing - this time it is BrianD who has been killed by the Forsaken! There are only 9 of you left - and at least one of you must be Forsaken.

Day 5 has begun - deadline Monday 8pm ET

[Lorena]

Aww man, that sucks

[Lorena]

I had written this earlier, but now that night actions have been posted, here it is:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Since we're working with supposition right now and precious little fact, I don't know that a lack of discussion would do anything except freeze me out of my one good chance to participate, and make you all more suspicious of me. I would rather continue to consider what we have here before turing in.

Alright Chief since you're here, when I switched my vote from Jon to LSG, I noticed that both blade and lathum actually agreed on something after bickering since Day 3 and that's why I mentioned it. I looked back to see when their bickering started and it started with post 280 when blade voted for Lathum and Lathum retaliated with

Originally Posted by Lathum

here goes Blade with his "lets throw enough crap at the wall and see what sticks" routine.

That leads me to believe that one of them might have been converted and are using their little squabble as a front.

[Lorena]

Although this quote makes me think otherwise:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm trying to keep emotion out of my vote.

btw, schmidty has been awefully quiet

If Lathum is a wolf, I doubt very seriously that he'd openly disagree with the lynching of LSG which kinda leads me to believe that he MIGHT actually be good.

I really don't know what to make of the Lathum-Blade arguing. I've never seen it this bad ( and no I didn't play in the necromancer game ). I mean has it been brewing for this long or is it a front?

[Lorena]

With that, I'm out; I'm absolutely exhausted.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

You awake and gather, and again, one of your society is missing - this time it is BrianD who has been killed by the Forsaken! There are only 8 of you left - and at least one of you must be Forsaken.

Day 5 has begun - deadline Monday 8pm ET

I count 9, remember that RPI is alive despite being tried.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I count 9, remember that RPI is alive despite being tried.

correct - editing the post now

[Chief Rum]

Okay, we have nine people remaining. I think we can do some likely emliminating here to focus on a smaller subset of targets. Here goes.

We have:

RPI-Fan
AlanT
Blade
Lathum
Dodgerchick
Jon Ezarik
Schmidty
MrWednesday
Chief Rum

RPI Fan is a known good, so we can throw him out. While there is a possibility he was converted after his "lynching", I find that unlikely, as that would make evil too powerful (we can't lynch him or kill him in other ways that I know of). I believe he is only alive because evil feels he doesn't have any other powers (and he probably doesn't). Also, it may just be a reading of the extras in the details, but my impression of the Forsaken is that they have been through tons to get to this point. So they are Forsaken, thick & thin, and have been for some time. This isn't some little decision they just make, like a bribe. This is a huge life direction move. I think we started with three Forsaken with no conversion ability.

I am throwing out Schmidty and MrWednesday, too. You might think it odd they missed the vote, but Schmidty has a history of this, and I wouldn't miss a playoff game or a hockey game for anything if I was MrW. Fact is, if you're a wolf, you are more into the game. You don't miss long stretches unless you have to. And that's under normal circumstances. Today's circumstances for the wolves were extraordinary-- LSG was on the block. She was up two votes for almost the entire last three hours before her lynch. Plenty of time for someone to do a save. I find it hard to believe that MrW and Schmidty would be out there "missing" with one of their own so saveable.

Jonathon Ezarik is out in my mind, because when LSG had a chance to put her vote in today, she voted for Jon E. It was his second vote, and a possibility of getting the ball rolling on him. I don't see her making that move on a fellow wolf. Also, BrianD targeted him the previous night and there was a confirmed dream passage between them. I will get to Brian more in a second, but I think there is one more inkling of the evidence supporting Jon Ez's goodness.

Finally, DC is out in my mind as well. For one thing, she and LSG have been a little catty in this game. DC even voted for LSG a couple days ago. Second, after LSG made the Jon Ez vote today, DC switched from Jon Ez to LSG and essentially put her head back in the noose with three hours to go. She moved LSG from quite catchable at 3 votes to a harder turn with 4, and with just three hours to go.

That leaves AlanT, Lathum and Blade. I am excluding myself, because I know I am good. I know you all will have to judge for yourselves about that. I hope you know I wouldn't go to this much trouble if I am bad.

Now, you might think Alan is good, given Brian targeted him, and things came up jolly. And I am still inclined to think he is, too. He is, as usual, way too noisy in the early start to be a wolf. That said, I would only put him at medium right now, partly because I don't know that he has been cleared by affiliation yet, and because he linked himself with a dead person who couldn't confirm his goodness. He also essentially made a throwaway vote on LSG just before the deadline today, when it was extremely unliekly MrW and Schmidty would both come on and save her. That could be an attempt to hide his vote (and a smart move, IMO). He is still a possibility in my mind.

I think BrianD was closer to a spy than a bodyguard. But his main value is that he can tell when someone is asleep!. If you're asleep, you're not awake and killing anyone are you? He can't tell affiliation, but he could tell if they were awake or not. So Alan could not have killed on Night One, and Jon E on Night Three. I won't bother to address RPI-Fan who is clearly good. I don't think Brian made the best choiuce in RPI unless he had BG abilities as well. But I don't see that. He may have thought he could see someone killing RPI, which is why he chose him. RPI would have been a possible target for the wolves, as he was cleared good and couldn't die in the day. But I don't think Brian fully understood the type of powers he had (which is understandable in this game where much is hidden). This is all speculation, but I feel good about it right now.

The last two are Blade and Lathum. Blade I have already stated is acting a bit out of sorts from his usual approach to things. This raises a lot of doubt with me. That said, my gut says he isn't into this game, as I have seen him bad and good, and he always raises a ruckus. The fact he isn't says more about his state of mind than his affiliation. I think if he was bad, he wouldn't have any issue being motivated. It's when he's good that other stuff (like OOG stuff or Lathum insults) would get in the way. So I think he is good.

Therefore, my main suspect is Lathum. My gut says he is trying to spread confusion with his theories, which are there to make a point, but not long enough (like this or Alan's posts) to make an impression. He says a few days ago he never gets interesting roles, and yet, he gets them all the time. He was even called on that here. It could have been an attempt to drop a "hint" he was a plain vanilla villager (and hid by way of that). Then there is his spat with Blade, which strikes me as an attempt to get himself more obviously "into" the game without actually committing himself to anything except that he doesn't like Blade (or something to that effect). But he is the second vote on me after Blade, and when I could still have been made a viable candidate instead of LSG. It also separated his vote from LSG's, so he wouldn't be linked with her.

There is still a strong possibility Blade and Lathum are playing this one up. But that's not what my hunch says.

I will be gone all day Monday, so I will leave you all to chew on this. Hopefully it doesn't get me lynched, but if it does, so be it.

VOTE LATHUM

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, we have nine people remaining. I think we can do some likely emliminating here to focus on a smaller subset of targets. Here goes.

We have:

RPI-Fan
AlanT
Blade
Lathum
Dodgerchick
Jon Ezarik
Schmidty
MrWednesday
Chief Rum

RPI Fan is a known good, so we can throw him out. While there is a possibility he was converted after his "lynching", I find that unlikely, as that would make evil too powerful (we can't lynch him or kill him in other ways that I know of). I believe he is only alive because evil feels he doesn't have any other powers (and he probably doesn't). Also, it may just be a reading of the extras in the details, but my impression of the Forsaken is that they have been through tons to get to this point. So they are Forsaken, thick & thin, and have been for some time. This isn't some little decision they just make, like a bribe. This is a huge life direction move. I think we started with three Forsaken with no conversion ability.

I am throwing out Schmidty and MrWednesday, too. You might think it odd they missed the vote, but Schmidty has a history of this, and I wouldn't miss a playoff game or a hockey game for anything if I was MrW. Fact is, if you're a wolf, you are more into the game. You don't miss long stretches unless you have to. And that's under normal circumstances. Today's circumstances for the wolves were extraordinary-- LSG was on the block. She was up two votes for almost the entire last three hours before her lynch. Plenty of time for someone to do a save. I find it hard to believe that MrW and Schmidty would be out there "missing" with one of their own so saveable.

Jonathon Ezarik is out in my mind, because when LSG had a chance to put her vote in today, she voted for Jon E. It was his second vote, and a possibility of getting the ball rolling on him. I don't see her making that move on a fellow wolf. Also, BrianD targeted him the previous night and there was a confirmed dream passage between them. I will get to Brian more in a second, but I think there is one more inkling of the evidence supporting Jon Ez's goodness.

Finally, DC is out in my mind as well. For one thing, she and LSG have been a little catty in this game. DC even voted for LSG a couple days ago. Second, after LSG made the Jon Ez vote today, DC switched from Jon Ez to LSG and essentially put her head back in the noose with three hours to go. She moved LSG from quite catchable at 3 votes to a harder turn with 4, and with just three hours to go.

That leaves AlanT, Lathum and Blade. I am excluding myself, because I know I am good. I know you all will have to judge for yourselves about that. I hope you know I wouldn't go to this much trouble if I am bad.

Now, you might think Alan is good, given Brian targeted him, and things came up jolly. And I am still inclined to think he is, too. He is, as usual, way too noisy in the early start to be a wolf. That said, I would only put him at medium right now, partly because I don't know that he has been cleared by affiliation yet, and because he linked himself with a dead person who couldn't confirm his goodness. He also essentially made a throwaway vote on LSG just before the deadline today, when it was extremely unliekly MrW and Schmidty would both come on and save her. That could be an attempt to hide his vote (and a smart move, IMO). He is still a possibility in my mind.

I think BrianD was closer to a spy than a bodyguard. But his main value is that he can tell when someone is asleep!. If you're asleep, you're not awake and killing anyone are you? He can't tell affiliation, but he could tell if they were awake or not. So Alan could not have killed on Night One, and Jon E on Night Three. I won't bother to address RPI-Fan who is clearly good. I don't think Brian made the best choiuce in RPI unless he had BG abilities as well. But I don't see that. He may have thought he could see someone killing RPI, which is why he chose him. RPI would have been a possible target for the wolves, as he was cleared good and couldn't die in the day. But I don't think Brian fully understood the type of powers he had (which is understandable in this game where much is hidden). This is all speculation, but I feel good about it right now.

The last two are Blade and Lathum. Blade I have already stated is acting a bit out of sorts from his usual approach to things. This raises a lot of doubt with me. That said, my gut says he isn't into this game, as I have seen him bad and good, and he always raises a ruckus. The fact he isn't says more about his state of mind than his affiliation. I think if he was bad, he wouldn't have any issue being motivated. It's when he's good that other stuff (like OOG stuff or Lathum insults) would get in the way. So I think he is good.

Therefore, my main suspect is Lathum. My gut says he is trying to spread confusion with his theories, which are there to make a point, but not long enough (like this or Alan's posts) to make an impression. He says a few days ago he never gets interesting roles, and yet, he gets them all the time. He was even called on that here. It could have been an attempt to drop a "hint" he was a plain vanilla villager (and hid by way of that). Then there is his spat with Blade, which strikes me as an attempt to get himself more obviously "into" the game without actually committing himself to anything except that he doesn't like Blade (or something to that effect). But he is the second vote on me after Blade, and when I could still have been made a viable candidate instead of LSG. It also separated his vote from LSG's, so he wouldn't be linked with her.

There is still a strong possibility Blade and Lathum are playing this one up. But that's not what my hunch says.

I will be gone all day Monday, so I will leave you all to chew on this. Hopefully it doesn't get me lynched, but if it does, so be it.

VOTE LATHUM

I decided to quote this because the board (or maybe my computer) is acting weird. It's not registering that I posted, so I wanted to be sure I wasn't the only one who could see it.

[Alan T]

Thanks for your points Chief, I somewhat agree with them, and somewhat don't.

I guess I know now what Brian's role is/was. He is dead now so it doesn't hurt for me to guess out in public. I'm pretty sure he was the bodyguard and not a spy or seer type. The reason I really doubted him alot yesterday was I didn't see why he guarded Jonathan that night. I started to wonder if he wasn't the bodyguard and actually was the anti-seer trying to find the seer. (Which would explain checking the people who he had). We know thats not the truth now, and the only real role had to have been bodyguard.

One thing about me Chief is I argue that you would have to assume by now I have been seer scanned. Wouldn't you assume if the seer had scanned me that they would have come out and announced if I was bad? I still stand by my thoughts from last night that we likely have 2 wolves left to hunt out. From the group, I think its highly unlikely that RPI is a wolf and I know I'm not a wolf. And I'm leaning to DC not being a wolf for the reasons I Stated yesterday.

In my mind that leaves everyone else. Like most games, now on day 5 and the seer not having hit on a bad guy yet, means they probably know at least 3-4 good guys still alive. I've been trying to figure out who the seer might have scanned vs not scanning to try to determine which people left are bad: Chief, Schmidty, Mr.W, Blade, Lathum, DC, Jonathan, me, RPI.

I'll highly argue that I've likely been scanned by now and the seer knows I am good. We know that RPI was good from the day result from a few days ago. Who else was a likely seer target by day 5? I commented strongly yesterday about Lathum and Blade's fighting back and forth, but that happens every game. The one thing I realized last night, what type of seer would have gone on to day 5 and hadn't scanned Lathum or Blade by now (or even both of them?) The lack of a seer coming out to say they are bad makes me feel my accusation from last night might not be as possible as I did yesterday. I still don't trust either of them, but I guess that is normal for almost every game for me.

I had accused and voted DC earlier in the game but like I said before it was based on one single vote and it was one of many. The most damning thing for me at that time was she had a guilty feel response (super defensive for no reason). Yesterday's vote makes me feel a lot less worried about her though. Right now behind me and RPI I feel she is the most likely to be good.

I thought alot about Jonathan last night. Did his vote tell me he was good or tell me not much? I believe at the time of his vote, it was 2 votes LSG, 2 votes him, 1 vote chief, 1 vote Blade. So his vote on LSG making it 3-2 seems like a good vote since she was bad, but was it really? What it looks like was more self preservation than anything else. Maybe my guess yesterday was right, and I just had the people wrong. Jon waited quite a while to cast his vote and he ended up puting it on the only person who would have saved him from the lynch. It was almost as if he was waiting to see if any other candidates were coming up, or perhaps someone else to show up to give an alternate candidate to try to save both him and LSG.

Maybe this is a reach, but what would we have expected to happen if both LSG and Jonathan were bad and the third bad guy was either someone MIA or either Blade and Chief who had tossed out a third candidate which had not stuck at the time? Jon waited to see if I would jump on someone else and when I waited too long, he ended up just voting for LSG. I guess I don't buy Jonathan is good based on his vote yesterday and in fact the more I look at it, the more I think he might be bad.

[Alan T]

Hmm in fact, I'll go ahead and start with my hunch. I'll be here all day while at work so up for all kinds of conversation, but I think Jonathan fits enough of my criteria for now to go with.

Pro: He was bodyguarded by Brian night 3 so we "guess" he did not make that night kill.
Pro: He voted for LSG who was bad.

Con: His vote for LSG was self-preservation which makes it a bit less meaningless for content
Con: His vote for LSG came quite late in the day after it had been a race between him and her for most of the day. Almost as if waiting for some other option.
Con: I don't see that Jonathan would have been a definite seer scan by now so perhaps a higher likelihood of being bad and sliding by this far.

Vote Jonathan

I hope more people are around today, I would love to get into some discussion on the group of Jonathan, Chief, Schmidty, Mr.W all of which have been fairly under the radar and good spots for perhaps 1 wolf to slide through till now. I still don't trust Blade or Lathum, but I think I likely won't push harder on one of them for now unless we get a seer hit on them. I guess I assume they likely have been seer scanned by now and someone would have spoken up if one or both were bad.

[RPI-Fan]

Umm... what he said (Chief Rum)...

VOTE LATHUM

[Lorena]

Wow Chief and Alan, that's great analysis and it's a lot to think about. Jonathan and Chief seemed to have received the same type of role I did, so I trust them a bit more (unless one of them was converted). Lathum on the other hand seemed to protect LSG quite a bit before her head was even on the block, so I suspect him a lot more than others. I'm too tired to look for the quotes so I'll look for them when my mind is a bit more clear.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Good post, Chief. A few comments.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am throwing out Schmidty and MrWednesday, too. You might think it odd they missed the vote, but Schmidty has a history of this, and I wouldn't miss a playoff game or a hockey game for anything if I was MrW. Fact is, if you're a wolf, you are more into the game. You don't miss long stretches unless you have to. And that's under normal circumstances. Today's circumstances for the wolves were extraordinary-- LSG was on the block. She was up two votes for almost the entire last three hours before her lynch. Plenty of time for someone to do a save. I find it hard to believe that MrW and Schmidty would be out there "missing" with one of their own so saveable.

I thought about this last night and I'm leaning this way as well. I find it hard to believe that a wolf would miss a vote on purpose, especially with one of their own on the line. Of course, LSG did vote for spleen on day one and then he was killed that night, so maybe the wolves are taking a different track this time. What I do find fishy, though, is that Schmidty came in right after the result and made his post about not knowing we were playing. Maybe it's just an accident and doesn't mean anything, but it strikes me as odd.

Now, you might think Alan is good, given Brian targeted him, and things came up jolly. And I am still inclined to think he is, too. He is, as usual, way too noisy in the early start to be a wolf. That said, I would only put him at medium right now, partly because I don't know that he has been cleared by affiliation yet, and because he linked himself with a dead person who couldn't confirm his goodness. He also essentially made a throwaway vote on LSG just before the deadline today, when it was extremely unliekly MrW and Schmidty would both come on and save her. That could be an attempt to hide his vote (and a smart move, IMO). He is still a possibility in my mind.

Brian wasn't a spy. He was the bodyguard. At least, that's how I interpret his decision to "visit" RPI's dreams the night RPI was outed as good. I don't know if that prevents anyone from killing or not, so I wouldn't use that as a factor in deciding someone's allegiance. (Notice, this includes me as well.) So, I don't trust Alan. His vote yesterday was very suspicious. I don't know why he waited until the last minute to vote when it was obvious that LSG was going to be lynched, and he wasn't even sure she was a good vote. So why ensure her lynch by casting that vote?

The last two are Blade and Lathum. Blade I have already stated is acting a bit out of sorts from his usual approach to things. This raises a lot of doubt with me. That said, my gut says he isn't into this game, as I have seen him bad and good, and he always raises a ruckus. The fact he isn't says more about his state of mind than his affiliation. I think if he was bad, he wouldn't have any issue being motivated. It's when he's good that other stuff (like OOG stuff or Lathum insults) would get in the way. So I think he is good.

I'm with you on this one.

Therefore, my main suspect is Lathum. My gut says he is trying to spread confusion with his theories, which are there to make a point, but not long enough (like this or Alan's posts) to make an impression. He says a few days ago he never gets interesting roles, and yet, he gets them all the time. He was even called on that here. It could have been an attempt to drop a "hint" he was a plain vanilla villager (and hid by way of that). Then there is his spat with Blade, which strikes me as an attempt to get himself more obviously "into" the game without actually committing himself to anything except that he doesn't like Blade (or something to that effect). But he is the second vote on me after Blade, and when I could still have been made a viable candidate instead of LSG. It also separated his vote from LSG's, so he wouldn't be linked with her.

I agree as well. Something about him this game has struck me as odd, especially the way he handled the Brian reveal.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hmm in fact, I'll go ahead and start with my hunch. I'll be here all day while at work so up for all kinds of conversation, but I think Jonathan fits enough of my criteria for now to go with.

Pro: He was bodyguarded by Brian night 3 so we "guess" he did not make that night kill.
Pro: He voted for LSG who was bad.

Con: His vote for LSG was self-preservation which makes it a bit less meaningless for content
Con: His vote for LSG came quite late in the day after it had been a race between him and her for most of the day. Almost as if waiting for some other option.
Con: I don't see that Jonathan would have been a definite seer scan by now so perhaps a higher likelihood of being bad and sliding by this far.

I'm not surprised by this vote at all. I had a feeling I would be a target today.

First, you're assuming the seer is still alive. I haven't seen anything that hints at someone being a seer, so I'm not willing to make the assumption that the role is still in play.

Second, I thought I did a pretty good job in stating a case for LSG yesterday. Maybe not. But I was right. The reason I waited to vote for her was that I was waiting to see if someone with new information came along. And as you said last night, I could have put my vote on Chief or Blade and made it a three-way race, but I don't believe either one of them is a wolf. LSG, though, I did. Hence my vote.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Brian wasn't a spy. He was the bodyguard. At least, that's how I interpret his decision to "visit" RPI's dreams the night RPI was outed as good. I don't know if that prevents anyone from killing or not, so I wouldn't use that as a factor in deciding someone's allegiance. (Notice, this includes me as well.) So, I don't trust Alan. His vote yesterday was very suspicious. I don't know why he waited until the last minute to vote when it was obvious that LSG was going to be lynched, and he wasn't even sure she was a good vote. So why ensure her lynch by casting that vote?

See, this is the type of defense that makes me even more suspicious of you then I was before. I put out my reasons on why I felt what you did yesterday was not necessarily a sign of good and in fact could be a sign of bad. Instead of responding to my comments, you completely ignore my points about you and instead attack back with points that aren't even true.

Once again for the record, it was 4-2 at the time I voted. My choices were either throw away a vote which would ensure LSG get lynched or think LSG wasn't bad and vote for Chief (who had 2 votes at the time), or vote LSG and make sure no one else could move their vote.

If I had voted for Chief, it would have been 4-3 and I am pretty sure LSG would have moved her vote to Chief making it 4-4. I simply had no idea if LSG was good or bad. As someone in my role, you wouldn't have that information. I ended up basing my vote to lynch LSG on the play of others yesterday. I found things in Lathum and Blade's play that just did not sit right with me. So I voted how I did, which I am glad. As for a while I thought about voting for Chief, which if I had could have let LSG off without being lynched.

Now instead of making up things about me that aren't even true, considering its fairly likely I already have been seer scanned by now.. perhaps you want to respond to my thoughts about you.

[Alan T]

Ok, you responded to my comments while i was posting at the same time as you.

I think you're wrong though, I am pretty sure the seer is alive, and I am pretty sure I have a good idea who it is. I'm not going into much more detail on that, but I don't want to say much that would cause them to get killed.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Umm... what he said (Chief Rum)...

VOTE LATHUM

With this, Lathum gets my vote as well. I think Chief did a good job in summing up the case against him, and RPI was the only one who "had a hunch" that Lathum was good. I thought this was code for something else, but apparently not.

VOTE Lathum

[Chief Rum]

I'm in and out before going to work, but something I read I wanted to comment on. I think we have to be prepared that we have lost the seer role, or that that role has had some bad stretches of luck (scanning killed people, etc.), because I think we would have learned more by now from that person or even had a reveal. The fact that we haven't yet tells me we can't wait for a seer reveal to figure this out. So for that reason, I disagree with Alan's approach on some of the candidates, and encourage us all to not make assumptions on whether Alan or Blade or Lathum or myself or whoever were "likely" scanned or not.

It's assumptions like that could lead us to ignore good candidates even when all our regular evidence would suggest otherwise.

Good luck, everyone.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm in and out before going to work, but something I read I wanted to comment on. I think we have to be prepared that we have lost the seer role, or that that role has had some bad stretches of luck (scanning killed people, etc.), because I think we would have learned more by now from that person or even had a reveal. The fact that we haven't yet tells me we can't wait for a seer reveal to figure this out. So for that reason, I disagree with Alan's approach on some of the candidates, and encourage us all to not make assumptions on whether Alan or Blade or Lathum or myself or whoever were "likely" scanned or not.

It's assumptions like that could lead us to ignore good candidates even when all our regular evidence would suggest otherwise.

Good luck, everyone.

Are you saying this because you actually believe it or because this approach makes you look like one of the people who has been under the radar all game.

I thought heavily about voting for you yesterday and am glad I didn't, however like I said yesterday you aren't playing how you normally do this game. Only today have you been acting like your normal self and part of me wonders if this is on purpose because you were being noticed.

If you honestly think the seer wouldn't have scanned me after the first day or two based on my behavior, then you and I have a very huge difference of opinion. The fact I've had no heat this game I am guessing is because the seer found that I was good. And on top of that all, I am pretty sure I know who the seer is, and he is alive, and no I won't tell you who I think it is.

[Alan T]

Looking at who is left, this is how I personally am grouping people:

Good feel:
RPI, Dogerchick

Neutral Feel:
Blade

Bad Feel:
Lathum, Jonathan, Chief

Under the Radar:

Mr. Wednesday, Schmidty

Right now, I am pretty sure that RPI and DC both are ok. I think we likely have 2 wolves left, I don't think there have been any conversions (based on no nights with missed kills) so I don't have any doubts about RPI having been converted at all.

I think it might be likely our last 2 wolves are either in my bad list or a combination of 1 in my bad list and 1 of the Under the radar list. Both of the Under the Radar people (mr.W and Schmidty) pulled things that seemed fishy to me this game in the limited time they have been here. (Schmidty was here yesterday, just happened to pop in 15 min after the lynch vote that he couldn't do anything about since I didn't vote for Chief). (Mr.W voting for Tyrith because Tyrith wasn't active enough)

[Alan T]

I am going to go ahead and move my vote also. I still don't feel any better about Jon, but Lathum also has been on my distrust list since yesterday.

Unvote jonathan
vote lathum

Vote is for the reasons I gave yesterday on why I thought Lathum was acting fishy to me. I still stand by what I said this morning, and I really would like more activity out of Schmidty and Mr.W today too. I don't buy the whole a wolf would be more active thing. We've seen plenty of games where a wolf was inactive alot of the game. (Heck I was a wolf one game with someone who missed half the votes).