NFL 2022-23 Season Thread

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Is there a bar that Tua can reach individually that will ever overcome that hype?

I have not seen as much of Tua as others have but he looks like a average to good NFL QB. Jimmy G-esque. He is capable of throwing for about 3800-3900 yards with a great play caller and a great support system. He is also going to take shots down the field that are going to hang there. He is going to thrive in an offense that ask him to throw in the 0-15 yard range most of the time.

Not really what you are looking for when you take a QB as high as him. You want a guy who makes everyone around him better.

[stevew]

Tua vs Kyler vs Hurts to start a team?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by stevew

Tua vs Kyler vs Hurts to start a team?

Hurts.

He looks amazing this season. Has taken a huge leap forward and has amazing command of the offense.

[GrantDawg]

Somehow, the Falcons didn't lose.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[stevew]

I don’t really have anything against Tua but I hate watching left handed quarterbacks. Get off my lawn.

[Solecismic]

Not much question that Geno Smith was the best quarterback of the 2013 class. Though it might not have been as good as the 2007 class, which featured JaMarcus Russell at #1, and undrafted Matt Moore was likely the best in the group.

There seems to be a fairly clear line between starter and backup when it comes to quarterback. I think Smith falls close to that line, but below it. Other teams have kicked his tires and made the same conclusion. When you consider how hard that position has become, it's not a bad place to be. Plenty of high first-round picks haven't even reached the clipboard standard in the end.

[albionmoonlight]

Jimmy G running that Shanahan offense looks completely unstoppable every fourth series or so.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hurts.

He looks amazing this season. Has taken a huge leap forward and has amazing command of the offense.

Not only that, he leapt last season as well. You get a franchise quarterback after the first round about once every five years in this league. Prescott was the most recent. Hurts looks pretty good as the next one.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Not really what you are looking for when you take a QB as high as him. You want a guy who makes everyone around him better.

Sincere question. Is it? Makes everyone around him better than what?

I get it. If you are picking a guy in the top five, you would love for him to have top five physical skills and be in the top five in the MVP race at some point in the first few years. You want Patrick Mahomes. I personally don't see that in Tua's future. But Tua has done what he has been asked to do so far this year. He has looked better as he has gotten better talent around him. To go back to my original point, at some point, he should probably be judged as a NFL QB and not a QB who was drafted with the #5 pick in the draft.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by stevew

I don’t really have anything against Tua but I hate watching left handed quarterbacks. Get off my lawn.

Get ready for Penix (and the gazillion or so jokes that go with his name). He's coming next year.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Get ready for Penix (and the gazillion or so jokes that go with his name). He's coming next year.

I hope not....

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by stevew

I don’t really have anything against Tua but I hate watching left handed quarterbacks. Get off my lawn.

guess that's why you're stevew and not stevey

[Ksyrup]

Speaking of Tua, Russell Wilson looks like a poor man's Tua from his rookie year. 4 out of 5 passes are check downs, he holds the ball too long, he doesn't know when to move in the pocket, he has no confidence in himself, his coach/play calling, and/or his receivers. It's like he's in Seattle and Metcalf and Lockett are out for the season and he knows he has no one to throw to.

[Atocep]

Jimmy G just pulled a Dan Orlovsky and it somehow turned out better for the 49ers because the threw a pick on the play.

[Solecismic]

When stepping out of the back of the end zone in your drop is only the second-worst thing you did on that play...

[Atocep]

Watching some Fields video from last year and there are some big changes to his mechanics, footwork, ect. Last year he was more upright in the pocket and through his throws. This year he's getting more into his legs (stays lower) and has a shorter release. The most noticeable impact is he's lost accuracy and isn't getting the same zip on throws when he needs to.

He wasn't good last year, but every game (except Cleveland) had a couple great throws that showed why he was drafted when he was and rated so highly. We're 3 games into this year and I haven't seen anything like those flashes he showed.

[Ksyrup]

If you want to win your fantasy league in point-per-catch leagues, take all of the Broncos RBs and you'll win going away...

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

If you want to win your fantasy league in point-per-catch leagues, take all of the Broncos RBs and you'll win going away...

Wilson doesn't look good in this offense.

[Ksyrup]

Denver hired an OC who can't coach a decently talented group of offensive players and who is so bad as a game day HC that after 2 weeks, they hired someone to help him with in-game management.

This reminds me of Willie Taggart at FSU who was so far over his head so quickly that they hired Bowden's old DC Mickey Andrews out of retirement as a "special assistant" to help him run preseason practices.

[stevew]

Cordarrelle Patterson(31.129 years old) may become the oldest player to break the 1000 yard barrier for the first time. Lamar Smith, Anthony Thomas and Craig Heyward all had their first 1000 yard season at approximately 30 years old.

[cuervo72]

So, this thing with extending the ball to break a "first down plane" as Tirico puts it. Isn't that...not a thing? I mean, if you extend the ball but then bring it back in so you don't fumble, isn't the spot where the ball was when you come down?

[cuervo72]

(or that McAulay just said)

[stevew]

10-5 is not a scorigami game but 13-5 would be, I believe. As would 16-5 or 18-5

[stevew]

(Nevermind)

[Ksyrup]

Wilson looks like he's got handcuffs on. The scramble for a 1st down on 3 and 6, he had a clear run for it and he almost pulled up. I think they've drilled into him that he is a pocket passer and they don't want the improv and he sucks as that kind of QB.

That's my theory anyway.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by stevew

(Nevermind)

How about 11-10?

[Solecismic]

That's the kind of drive we got used to seeing in Seattle. Wilson making plays on third down, over and over. That's one reason why that week one decision was insane. He never panics out there. Even when he's not having a great game. He's going to be in Hall of Fame - makes no sense not to just give him the keys and let him work through it.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

How about 11-10?

Steelers beat Chargers in NFL's first 11-10 game – New York Daily News

[stevew]

Really bad choice there.

[Ksyrup]

Let Wilson win the game for you. 3 runs, such BS. Bootleg him out on play-action, let him run or find someone to ice the game.

[Ksyrup]

Denver doesn't deserve to be 2-1 but I'll take it.

[stevew]

18-11 was in play I guess until that fumble.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I have not seen as much of Tua as others have but he looks like a average to good NFL QB. Jimmy G-esque. He is capable of throwing for about 3800-3900 yards with a great play caller and a great support system. He is also going to take shots down the field that are going to hang there. He is going to thrive in an offense that ask him to throw in the 0-15 yard range most of the time. He is capable of quarterbacking your team to the lead in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl and maybe even win it. But I don't think anyone would be shocked if the Dolphins drafted someone with Trey Lance-esque physical gifts to replace him.

If the bar for Tua is putting up better numbers than Justin Herbert with at least one 60 yard in the air TD pass a game because Tua was taken before him, Tua will fail to meet that standard IMO

Yep, that's my read on it, too. I wasn't happy when the Dolphins drafted Tua - not as unhappy as I was with Tannehill selection, but still. Won't ever be great, but he can be good enough.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Watching some Fields video from last year and there are some big changes to his mechanics, footwork, ect. Last year he was more upright in the pocket and through his throws. This year he's getting more into his legs (stays lower) and has a shorter release. The most noticeable impact is he's lost accuracy and isn't getting the same zip on throws when he needs to.

He wasn't good last year, but every game (except Cleveland) had a couple great throws that showed why he was drafted when he was and rated so highly. We're 3 games into this year and I haven't seen anything like those flashes he showed.

I'm not sure what it is with Fields. Way too soon to give up on him, but he's not where I thought he would be so far. He clearly wasn't ready last year and should've sat the entire season. Now, he's in a new offense, made changes to his mechanics, and doesn't have the best set of receivers around. Is it too much for him right now? Is this part of the process of him developing and he'll be better in the second half of the season? Not sure.

And anyone calling for a change at QB is too high on this roster. They aren't as bad as the pundits made them out to be, but they aren't solid QB play away from contending either. Kmet still seems like a question as a pass catching TE. Mooney is drawing #1 DB coverage and isn't getting as open. The strength of the offense has always been the run game.

This season was always going to be a rebuild and this is what it looks like. Need to have Fields out there to see if he's our answer at QB or if we need to start shopping in the draft.

[albionmoonlight]

https://twitter.com/fos/status/15743...4Qh3vC28D4hUGw

This makes sense to me. The actual game of the pro bowl had descended into farce. The week of skills competitions sounds super fun.

[bhlloy]

Yeah the skills competition parts of other all star games have always been the best part of the weekend… it makes sense for football to drop the game as it’s basically impossible to play without tackling and risking injury.

Wonder if they consider 7 on 7 flag with a pregame draft, that could be an interesting idea.

[albionmoonlight]

I had Fields as just behind Lawrence in that draft. That might have been a touch optimistic.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Through various coincidences of timing, I had a lot of opportunity to listen to podcasts and otherwise consume draft content, specifically about the big 3 QBs. I will, so I can come back to laugh at my wrongness later, give my current thoughts on them.

TIER 1

1) Trevor Lawrence--The guy who's been the consensus #1 overall pick since his first game as a true freshman is the best QB in the class. Go figure. Perhaps the best testament to just how much of a no-brainer this pick is is the fact that no one is really even talking about it. People can't even pretend that anything other that him going #1 to Jax makes sense.

2) Justin Fields--His stock is falling. But I don't see it at all. He's a Taysom Hill who can throw. He's a Lamar Jackson with size. He's got all the tools you want, and he wins at a top-5 program. The buzz is that teams are concerned about processing speed, but several people who watch film say that the tOSU offense is designed to have late-developing routes and reads. So are we really going to penalize this guy for running his team's offense? I think that if it were a team other than the Jets at #2, there wouldn't be an issue of him dropping past that pick.

TIER 2

3) Trey Lance--I really like him. Super smart. Physical tools. Not quite at the level of the top two above. But I'm a big fan. The best thing for him would be to end up on a team like the Falcons, Patriots, Steelers, Washington, etc. where he can sit behind a vet for a year and then take over next season. There's some smart teams on that list I just gave, so I'd not be shocked for him to end up in a place like that.

TIER 3

4) Zach Wilson--Where I differ from the consensus the most, I think. The dude is small, but he does not have the elite speed/agility skills to keep from getting hit. I could see a lot of weeks where he is "Questionable--ribs" I also admit to some prejudice here. He has the perfect QB name. And he's got the golden boy QB look. But it's all just a little too perfect for me. You know the last guy I thought would succeed because he had the perfect name and look for a star QB? Mark Sanchez.

TIER 4

5) Mac Jones--Apparently NFL teams are (and have always been) higher on Mac Jones than the fans and media. Well, I'm a fan who gets my info from the media, so I'm not that high on him. He's Andy Dalton. He's Teddy Bridgewater. He's Jared Goff. He seems like he is set up for a perfectly fine 10+ year career as a decent starter or overqualified backup. Maybe he has that one season where it all comes together and he makes a Pro Bowl. I don't think that he'll be a *bad* QB. But I certainly don't see him with franchise QB potential like the other 4 on this list.

And, of course, because it's the NFL Draft and LOL and no one knows anything, Kyle Trask will probably end up being the best QB in the entire class.

These were my pre-draft thoughts.

Lawrence--Looking good with a real coaching staff. So I will pat myself on the back for predicting that the no-brainer #1 pick might be good.

Fields--Not looking good. As people have noticed, he seems to be regressing. Even the flashes he showed last year are gone.

Lance--Incomplete, I guess? But considering that COVID killed his last year in college, he will have gone three years without playing football at the start of next season. The 49ers are going to have to make the 5th year option decision on him without really knowing much about him.

Wilson--I think I was on with this one. Injuries were one of my concerns. And that is playing out. He just seems too small to play football without Lamar-like athleticism.

Jones--Probably playing better than I thought. I'd certainly have him higher than 5th on this list if I re-did it. He's probably not going to the Hall of Fame. But he can start in the NFL. Which is pretty good for the 5th QB taken.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by rjolley

This season was always going to be a rebuild and this is what it looks like. Need to have Fields out there to see if he's our answer at QB or if we need to start shopping in the draft.

They did as close to a real life empty cupboard build as you're likely to see in the NFL. There's no doubt they play him all year and see if they're resetting (aka drafting a new QB) or not. Only way he doesn't play is if he gets hurt - which is a high probability. At this point? The turnaround in Fields has got to be staggering for him to be considered a viable solution when this team DOES feel ready to compete.

The Bears right now are winning through discipline and hustle, and that's how they're going to get wins this year - aka a better coaching staff. They're never gonna out-talent anyone this season. Of course, since they are winning games here and there (not to mention they have a super easy schedule this season), they're gonna run into the danger of picking up just enough wins to be out of range of any possible top-tier QB's.

[Lathum]

Up by 10 in my big money fantasy league. Looking to go 3-0. He has no one left. I have the Giants D. Odds of them getting a -10 are virtually nil, but it is the giants.

Is it bush league to bench them and take the zero?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by stevew

Tua vs Kyler vs Hurts to start a team?

that this feels like a pretty provocative question is testament to the leaps Hurts and Tua have made

I'm not sure what the answer/tiering is there, and that's great for Tua especially, because as of December 2021 this would have been a no-brainer I think

[QuikSand]

Quite a LOT of the data-driven universe was pro-Fields in that draft, and it feels like there's some deeper reckoning afoot in assessing that tricky measure of "passing accuracy" with developmental quarterbacks. I don't claim any deep insight there, but different people took different numbers to try to argue that he was or was not an accurate passer, and this feels a bit like baseball stats in the era before the massive revolution in defense independent pitching stats and the like. As if we are still profoundly mixing up signal and noise an awful lot, amidst the multitude of systems and styles that college football teams put around their passers.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Up by 10 in my big money fantasy league. Looking to go 3-0. He has no one left. I have the Giants D. Odds of them getting a -10 are virtually nil, but it is the giants.

Is it bush league to bench them and take the zero?

I've always felt that this is fine. But I know others disagree.

My thinking is: You are allowed to put no one in a slot; you are allowed to adjust lineups until kickoff.

This situation is just a combination of two things you are allowed to do.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yeah the skills competition parts of other all star games have always been the best part of the weekend… it makes sense for football to drop the game as it’s basically impossible to play without tackling and risking injury.

It wasn't always impossible.

Sean Taylor Hit on Brian Moorman: Pro Bowl 2007 - YouTube

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

amidst the multitude of systems and styles that college football teams put around their passers.

To strain your baseball analogy to the breaking point, this seems like the hardest part of it.

In baseball, a pitcher pitches, and a hitter tries to hit those pitches. And it does not really matter too much what system the teams run. Get a large enough sample size of college or minor league at-bats, and you get a decent read on who can pitch and who can hit.

But college coaches run such different styles. It would be like trying to evaluate a hitter if somehow his team ran a system that made it so he never had to see a curveball. Or that let him reach base 80% of the time on a bunt. Maybe he's can do the other things his team never asked him to do. Maybe he can't. But you have to do so much projection to try and figure it out.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Quite a LOT of the data-driven universe was pro-Fields in that draft, and it feels like there's some deeper reckoning afoot in assessing that tricky measure of "passing accuracy" with developmental quarterbacks. I don't claim any deep insight there, but different people took different numbers to try to argue that he was or was not an accurate passer, and this feels a bit like baseball stats in the era before the massive revolution in defense independent pitching stats and the like. As if we are still profoundly mixing up signal and noise an awful lot, amidst the multitude of systems and styles that college football teams put around their passers.

It's an interesting thing to look at. Either NFL teams have become much better over the past 10 or so years at identifying top quarterbacks in the draft or NFL offenses have become so complex its narrowed the skillset required to be a successful NFL quarterback down to the point that its simply easier to see who has it and who doesn't. The days of saying you just want to trade down and take a qb later in the draft and hope he can develop into a starter are largely over. Get your potential franchise qb in the top 10 or you're drafting a backup is the general rule now.

For Fields, some of the more trusted analytical sites had him very close to Lawrence as a prospect. What his exact weaknesses were was up for debate depending on where you were looking though.

Quarterback development is weird. Most analytical sites hated Josh Allen as a prospect and he looked like a better version of Tebow for his first year plus in the league. Then suddenly a light flipped for him. One thing we can't measure with analytics is how good the instruction is for mechanical changes and other developmental things the player is receiving. Part of a player being a bust is poor coaching and development. I feel that's been as much of a problem for the bears as drafting the wrong guy.

[rjolley]

If Fields has really changed his mechanics, could his appearance of uneasiness be partially attributed to that? Like a batter with new swing mechanics or a basketball player with a new shot release, it takes time for it to become natural and instinctive.

Yeah, I'm a hopeful Bears fan. I'll take any reasonable reason for this year.

[GrantDawg]

Has there ever been anybody that has had a career turn at 30+ in the NFL as Cordarrelle Patterson? Basically as kick-off returner his entire career, and at 31 is now second in the league in rushing yards through 3 games at 31 years old. It is not hard to believe he will break a thousand yards this year barring injuries.

[NobodyHere]

Because it wouldn't be a Browns season without something like this happening: Myles Garret flipped his Porsche and now in the hospital.

Myles Garrett Cleveland Browns car crash

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Wilson looks like he's got handcuffs on. The scramble for a 1st down on 3 and 6, he had a clear run for it and he almost pulled up. I think they've drilled into him that he is a pocket passer and they don't want the improv and he sucks as that kind of QB.

That's my theory anyway.

The 49ers do have a good DL, but that Denver OL also might be just as bad as his Seattle one was for years.