Werewolf CXXVIII - The Original Werewolves - VILLAGERS WIN

[dwardzala]

Just catching up after being away from the computer all day.

I don't have a strong feeling on any of the three candidates, so lets put Jag in the lead and see who does what.

Vote JAG

[Chief Rum]

The problem with not getting a vote in early is that you get pigeonholed into the candidates of the day up to that point. Not that I would have gone elsewhere, or that the candidates up are worse than others, but I don't know that I would come to the same conclusions on my own as have been made to this point.

Forgive me for the following, as I know this is treading old ground already, but I am helping my own thought process along with this post. Maybe in doing so I'll hit on something someone else hasn't found.

To wit, I think the only basis for a vote at this point is based on the theory that wolves spread their votes around, particularly on Day One.

If we surmise there is at most one wolf in each vote chain, then we can devise from Day One that the following groups form potential "one wolf" groups: (JAG, saldana, the Jackal)--voted for villager; (Lathum)--voted for unknown; (Barkeep, bhhloy)--voted for unknown; (Chief Rum)--voted for villager.

From Day Two, the groups are: (The Jackal, Chief Rum, saldana--note, J23 voted here and could be the "one wolf"); (Lathum)--voted for unknown; (Barkeep)--voted for villager; (JAG)--voted for unknown.

The worst vote is on a known villager, and the worst situation is to be the only unknown on a vote for a known villager.

The following players voted for a known villager both days--saldana, Chief Rum, The Jackal. The trouble here is that all three were on DV on Day Two, along with known wolf J23. On te assumption of one wolf per vote chain, this actually makes all three look better, despite their villager votes.

Really, though, this just emphasizes how little we have to go on.

I don't think we have enough info to draw conclusions, but one needs to be made, and I think those three are the best to consider. I am a villager, so I won't vote myself, of course. That puts me choosing between sal and The jackal, two of our candidates in the mix.

Between the two, I like The Jackal more as a potential wolf. He put a villager up to start on Day Two, who was eventually lynched. Both he and sal made self-defense votes, but sal's other vote (on Zinto, Day One) doesn't look as bad as The Jackal putting up a villager at the start.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Danny]

JAG, your vote is currently on Saldana because you never unvoted. Assuming JAG will make the official switch, we are looking at a JAG, Jackal run off.

[Danny]

And again assuming the switch we are Jackal 5 and Jag 3.

[JAG]

I never intended to vote Jackal Danny, I was quoting a post from Saldana where he voted for Jackal and somehow the [/quote] tag was left off.

[Danny]

Oh ok. Then at this point we still have three candidates. Jackel with four, Jag with 2 and Saldana with 2. This likely changes my vote as I am leaning toward Saldana at this point.

[Danny]

Chief, you point out that Saldana would be the second wolf voting for Darth, but don't forget that when he voted he had three votes on him and Darth was his best vote as self defense.

[Danny]

I think it's smart we have the three Zinto voters as candidates. I think at least one has to be a wolf.

[Danny]

My only concern is that Jackal and Jag are both voting Saldana and it's possible both are wolves.

[Danny]

One guy I think who is being overlooked is bhlloy. I think he needs to be given more attention in the voting.

[bhlloy]

I keep coming back to Jackal and Saldana, and the one thing Jackal has going for him is I don't think smart wolves put the first 2 votes on DV and leave them there if they know he's going to show up villager.

That being said, I think we learn a little more from lynching Jackal and I still don't understand why the wolves were going so hard after McKerney unless they felt like he was coming after Jackal and it was a self defense move. So I'm really torn here. I think both are solid candidates and I really can't separate them in game terms.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Danny

One guy I think who is being overlooked is bhlloy. I think he needs to be given more attention in the voting.

I can understand that, but I'm interested in why I'm the fourth candidate rather than say CR, who has been more inactive and voted for a villager both days?

[Danny]

vote saldana

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Danny

My only concern is that Jackal and Jag are both voting Saldana and it's possible both are wolves.

If that were the case, it would be pretty ballsy seemingly coordinating in thread, no? And J23 votes a fifth villager with two wolves receiving votes D1 instead of tacking onto one of the villagers with votes? I think you really have to stretch your mind to believe that one.

[JAG]

In fact I don't know why I didn't think of J23's vote before. If you think either Jackal or I was a wolf, then J23's vote D1 looks fairly ridiculous instead of trying to help out a fellow wolf by tacking onto one of the villagers receiving votes.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by JAG

In fact I don't know why I didn't think of J23's vote before. If you think either Jackal or I was a wolf, then J23's vote D1 looks fairly ridiculous instead of trying to help out a fellow wolf by tacking onto one of the villagers receiving votes.

This is a very good point. My instincts tell me both you and Jackal are likely villagers which is why I voted the way I did.

[Danny]

ALso, J23 was pretty absent day 1 and 2. In our game as wolves, he was more active the days a wolf was on the block and inactive the first couple days when we were safe

[Danny]

I'm pretty sure my vote will stick where it is.

[Danny]

And bh, I do agree that Chief needs to be explored too, especially if Jackal is lynched and comes up villager.

[dwardzala]

Uvnvote Jag

Vote Saldana

[JAG]

Here's the voting I have as of post 470:

4 The Jackal - bhlloy (416), saldana (440), Barkeep (449), Chief Rum (452)
3 JAG - Lathum (419), mauboy (421), dwardzala (451)
3 saldana - JAG (441), The Jackal (443), Danny (463)

[JAG]

well...as of 471

4 The Jackal - bhlloy (416), saldana (440), Barkeep (449), Chief Rum (452)
4 saldana - JAG (441), The Jackal (443), Danny (463), dwardzala (470)
2 JAG - Lathum (419), mauboy (421)

[bhlloy]

I read J23's day 1 vote as a random day 1 villager who just didn't get on later in the day to change it to anything more meaningful. I don't think it reflects better on Jackal or JAG TBH. I'm comfortable with Jackal or Saldana today, so if it looks like it's going to be a tie I'll switch to Sal.

[bhlloy]

sorry... that should read as a vote for a day 1 villager... obviously J23 wasn't a villager was he?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I read J23's day 1 vote as a random day 1 villager who just didn't get on later in the day to change it to anything more meaningful. I don't think it reflects better on Jackal or JAG TBH. I'm comfortable with Jackal or Saldana today, so if it looks like it's going to be a tie I'll switch to Sal.

I'm just saying that's exactly what he did three games ago when were wolves together. Day 1 and 2, afk with all villagers on the block. Future days he was around and more active with wolves on the block.

[JAG]

bhlloy, the point is, if there was a wolf on the block (at the time when he voted, it was 2-2-1-1), it wasn't a random vote for J23. You would think if we were v-v-v-w, instead of voting for a 5th villager he would vote one of the villagers with votes so as to protect the wolf on the block. Since he didn't, in my mind that makes it less likely there was a wolf he was trying to protect.

[Danny]

Changing my mind.

Unvote Saldana
Vote Jackal

We have some time in this game still up 8-2. I'd like to know about Jackal for sure moving on and I think there's a fair chance I don't get another scan in as there may not be a martyr.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

bhlloy, the point is, if there was a wolf on the block (at the time when he voted, it was 2-2-1-1), it wasn't a random vote for J23. You would think if we were v-v-v-w, instead of voting for a 5th villager he would vote one of the villagers with votes so as to protect the wolf on the block. Since he didn't, in my mind that makes it less likely there was a wolf he was trying to protect.

It wasn't unless Danny's chart is wrong. It was 1-1-1-1 and very early in the day.

[bhlloy]

And the last thing a wolf would do there is put a second vote on a villager...

[The Jackal]

Your original read of me was right, Danny. My distillery will BURN and my daughters be sent to Norway!

But like I said, just vanilla, so go village. Guess there's time for movement, but I don't have anything more to offer. This day should provide some good history.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It wasn't unless Danny's chart is wrong. It was 1-1-1-1 and very early in the day.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Vote Count as of Post 75

Zinto 2 - JAG (52), Danny (75)
JAG 1 - Lathum (61)
Darth Vilus 2 - The Jackal (63), Zinto (70)
The Jackal 1 - mckerney (66)

Post 78:

Originally Posted by J23

Vote Mckerney

I'd hate to make anyone have to go to Norway.

[bhlloy]

I'm interested in why you are so desperate to save Jackal. Smells like a wolf play to me... I think Jackal is the right play for today, it answers a couple of big questions.

[mauchow]

unvote jag
vote jackal

Jackal was my original choice, might as well go with my gut on this one.

JAG, sorry I just saw your question posed to me. I essentially voted for you because lathum did; no real rhyme or reason other than I felt like I could follow someone who has good reads most of the time. Before I put my vote in I actually had Jackal down but refreshed and saw Lathum's vote.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm interested in why you are so desperate to save Jackal. Smells like a wolf play to me... I think Jackal is the right play for today, it answers a couple of big questions.

What big questions does it answer? I can't peg a wolf early in every game, I just happened to miss this time with DV.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Your original read of me was right, Danny. My distillery will BURN and my daughters be sent to Norway!

But like I said, just vanilla, so go village. Guess there's time for movement, but I don't have anything more to offer. This day should provide some good history.

Well, the four people I suspected most are all on you, so I think I'm doing something right.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

Post 78:

OK people must have switched... still not reading too much into it. Very early on and neither of you were in serious danger at that point.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm interested in why you are so desperate to save Jackal. Smells like a wolf play to me... I think Jackal is the right play for today, it answers a couple of big questions.

Because I feel pretty strongly he's a villager and feel pretty strongly saldana is a wolf. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my crow for sure, but I doubt my vote will change for tomorrow.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

What big questions does it answer? I can't peg a wolf early in every game, I just happened to miss this time with DV.

1) why go so hard after mckerney (wolf vote on day 1, NK on day 2) unless it's because he put the first vote on you both days?

2) why is JAG so strong in his defense of you if he doesn't know you from adam?

I don't have a strong feeling that you are definitely a wolf, but it does seem the smart play at this point.

[JAG]

Hopefully the mayor is around.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

1) why go so hard after mckerney (wolf vote on day 1, NK on day 2) unless it's because he put the first vote on you both days?

2) why is JAG so strong in his defense of you if he doesn't know you from adam?

I don't have a strong feeling that you are definitely a wolf, but it does seem the smart play at this point.

1) Going after someone that will directly point people to a wolf as a wolf team is dumb, it's almost always a frame job.

2) He has correctly surmised that I'm a villager because A) he's a good villager who has played with me and properly judged my reactions and votes as not being as suspicious as they are being portrayed, or B) he's a wolf and knows I'm a villager. I tend to think it's the prior, but I certainly can't be sure.

[The Jackal]

I mean, I'm not the only person here with votes on two known villagers (sal, CR for sure, others possibly). To claim that I look worse because I "introduced" DV day two, when he was already likely to be a candidate and I was just repeating my day 1 vote to try and get him to talk since he was silent is a bit of a weak case.

[JAG]

Jackal's been about the only person even willing to consider some possibilities for today. Wolves will usually slink in with the "obvious" candidates. I've seen plenty of circumstantial evidence to say he's a villager and others are more suspicious.

[The Jackal]

I think JAG gets his choice of one of my daughters, wolf or not!

[JAG]

Anyway, I've said more than enough. I'll check in the morning and hopefully be wrong about him.

[The Jackal]

Autumn won't be around for the deadline, so this will be somewhat anti-climactic.

[The Jackal]

I'm fully confident that the village will pull this out aside from sketchy reasoning on this lynch of me. But it's very possibly that sketchy reasoning was perpetrated by furry bastards, so I can't be too mad at that.

[The Jackal]

The mayor can have another of my daughters if he saved me!

[Autumn]

Vote count as of deadline

6 The Jackal - bhlloy (416), saldana (440), barkeep49 (448), Chief Rum (452), danny (477), mauboy1 (483)
1 JAG - Lathum (419)
3 saldana - JAG (441), The Jackal (443), dwardzala (470)

[Autumn]

Confusion reigns in the village. They watched one werewolf hang from the gallows, and no one die last night. Yet still people push to hang another, there must be more they proclaim. And so the village votes again. This time it is The Jackal pushed towards the gallows.

He does not resist the villagers as they string him up. He only shakes his head sadly as he is dropped. The village watches anxiously, aware now of what a wolf looks like upon death. But Jackal simply hangs there, dead but human.

The Jackal was a villager.

[Autumn]

It seems dawn comes so quickly after the sunset. Maybe it is because the villagers huddle in their houses, fearful and hopeful. Perhaps no one will die again, perhaps The Jackal didn't need to die, J23 was the only werewolf.

Morning proves the village wrong though as they find the doors to Danny's house smashed open and their neighbor dead, horribly mutilated. He was sitting in some sort of magic circle inscribed on the floor.

Danny was the Seer.