WW XCIX: Seville High, Book Two: The Janitor Lives!!! Game Over - Blakekin Win!!!!

[Abe Sargent]

I won't be around in the morning tomorrow if anyone has any quesitons, they will need to be asked earlier to held until later.

[path12]

Dang. Go students!

Walter, you can have my iPod.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm looking at EF, for now, as I think he is in "throw a bunch of suspects out, see what sticks" mode.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

Not to contradict you with the obvious but we currently only have "a bunch of suspects".

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

vote ntn

Throw away vote day one, no vote day two. It's not like he is helping the cause.

I want to vote Lathum but hopefully the seer has scanned him and that no votes in his direction yet is a good sign. Plus why kick him when he's down (10 straight!!!).

I am sorry for missing yesterdays vote. At least I missed the stench. The folks were pissed, but at least it was a bitchin jacket.

[EagleFan]

Day 1:

Danny - 7 (nfg 171, path 172, PB 194, henry296 221, TheNorm 234, Pass 238, Lathum 248)
Pass - 5 (clap 111, hoops 122, EF 202, Jackal 241, JAG 243)
JAG - 2 (Jets 121, MartinD 215)
lerriuqs - 1 (ntn 159)
The Jackal - 1 (Schmidty 217)

no vote: danny, lerriuqs


Day Two:

Passacaglia - 7 (Eaglefan 305, JetsIn06 332, lerriuqs 341, PB 346, path12 365, JAG 373, hoops 380)
hoopsguy - 6 (Passacaglia 340, MartinD 344, Jackal 353, clap 354, nfg22 355, Schmidty 367, Lathum 390)

No vote - ntn, TheNorm


2 known villager votes: EF, JAG, hoops
1 villager vote, 1 no vote: lerriuqs
2 presently unverifiable votes: MartinD
1 unverifiable vote, 1 no vote: ntn

[hoopsguy]

Yep, but your approach to reviewing the suspects seems kind of random. And you are one of the people who I think has a potentially pro-Danny vote on Day 1 at a point where it would have made sense for the wolves to try and slow down momentum on Danny. So that was the basis for the vote here.

I'm certainly willing to listen to discussions on other students. As you say, we only have suspects, not cleared folks.

[EagleFan]

I missed making henry green on day one in that post. That puts three known good on Danny that day.

[The Jackal]

I think at the moment I'm deciding between Schmidty and ntn as wolves that are laying low, so I'll go with this for now for reasons already mentioned:

VOTE SCHMIDTY

[claphamsa]

vote ntn

if nothing else he needs to say something

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, but your approach to reviewing the suspects seems kind of random. And you are one of the people who I think has a potentially pro-Danny vote on Day 1 at a point where it would have made sense for the wolves to try and slow down momentum on Danny. So that was the basis for the vote here.

I'm certainly willing to listen to discussions on other students. As you say, we only have suspects, not cleared folks.

I've found EF to be somewhat suspicious as well but I'm withholding judgment on that for the moment. Here would be my rebuttal to your comments though...doesn't nearly everyone preach how we don't learn anything from runaways and try to keep things close unless there's an obvious target? I could see someone making the opposite argument if he piled on Danny with no cause and he turned out to be a villager.

I also lean towards distrusting Jackal a bit with his late vote and comments of looking for a tie, although I realize like I said yesterday I could just as easily point the finger at myself for that since I actually placed the tying vote. Having read Lathum's comments on tying votes and the difference between D1 / D2, in future situations I would not tie up the vote at the end as I did D1 unless there was a clearly known tiebreaker mechanism. Chalk it up to the WW learning process.

[hoopsguy]

EF, I was initially thinking of looking at either the Danny or Pass voters but there are four unknowns on each (I'm treating myself as a known, but if you don't then there are five unknowns on Pass D1) - those are probably not any better odds than hitting a wolf with random selection.

Now, if you assume that there would be two Blakekin on Pass Day 1 - in an attempt to keep the Blakekin alive for another day - then the odds get interesting. As in, better than random. I'm not convinced that this is the case, but I think that the wolves would prefer to keep their numbers elevated, all things being equal.

[ntndeacon]

I wonder on the first vote on Danny. Even though Danny did not realize he was a Blakein, the others did know, and could use his ignorance as a cover...Besides having one of your own trying to throw you into the fire can't have made the bad guys happy. I doubt they teamed up against him, but tey would not have tried to save him either.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

I've found EF to be somewhat suspicious as well but I'm withholding judgment on that for the moment. Here would be my rebuttal to your comments though...doesn't nearly everyone preach how we don't learn anything from runaways and try to keep things close unless there's an obvious target? I could see someone making the opposite argument if he piled on Danny with no cause and he turned out to be a villager.

I also lean towards distrusting Jackal a bit with his late vote and comments of looking for a tie, although I realize like I said yesterday I could just as easily point the finger at myself for that since I actually placed the tying vote. Having read Lathum's comments on tying votes and the difference between D1 / D2, in future situations I would not tie up the vote at the end as I did D1 unless there was a clearly known tiebreaker mechanism. Chalk it up to the WW learning process.

First comment is exactly why I voted for Pass on day 1, and second comment is just highlighted to let you know I haven't forgotten about that vote either.

[JetsIn06]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm looking at EF, for now, as I think he is in "throw a bunch of suspects out, see what sticks" mode.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

I actually was feeling the same kind of vibe.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, but your approach to reviewing the suspects seems kind of random. And you are one of the people who I think has a potentially pro-Danny vote on Day 1 at a point where it would have made sense for the wolves to try and slow down momentum on Danny. So that was the basis for the vote here.

I'm certainly willing to listen to discussions on other students. As you say, we only have suspects, not cleared folks.

The problem is that you are using logic as if Danny was a normal wolf. He wasn't. Other than the numbers game he was just as dangerous to them as any other villager.

On another note:

If we look at Lathum vs hoops; I see it that either they are both villagers or just one is a wolf, not both. I can't see Lathum bringing hoops into the mix at the last minute on day two if they were both wolves. If hoops is a villager Lathum could still be a wolf (try to gain trust with the day one play and then cause the tie day two knowing that it wouldn't matter which one got picked). If Lathum is a villager hoops could still be a wolf.

Hopefully at least one of them has already been scanned, if not both. We can revisit this if there is a reveal at some point.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

First comment is exactly why I voted for Pass on day 1, and second comment is just highlighted to let you know I haven't forgotten about that vote either.

You know, looking back at the comments I actually take back my suspicion on you other than the Pass vote. For some reason I had remembered you had made a specific comment about wanting to see a tie, but you just mentioned with a couple minutes left that there would be a tie if Danny showed up (before you realized Lathum switched votes).

[JAG]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

The problem is that you are using logic as if Danny was a normal wolf. He wasn't. Other than the numbers game he was just as dangerous to them as any other villager.

While true, I don't think this makes it a bad place to start looking.

Originally Posted by EagleFan

If we look at Lathum vs hoops; I see it that either they are both villagers or just one is a wolf, not both. I can't see Lathum bringing hoops into the mix at the last minute on day two if they were both wolves. If hoops is a villager Lathum could still be a wolf (try to gain trust with the day one play and then cause the tie day two knowing that it wouldn't matter which one got picked). If Lathum is a villager hoops could still be a wolf.

I don't find that scenario very likely. For all we knew a tie would mean no lynch...would a wolf want to force that potential outcome with a couple of villagers available for kill? I'm not giving Lathum a 100% clean bill of villagership, but I don't think he makes a good option to look at when there are more suspicious ones.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by JAG

Well, I'm gonna get an early vote in since the late ones haven't worked out too well.

VOTE SCHMIDTY

VOTE JAG

I tied up the vote yesterday, just like a lot of people did. I also explained what I did the day before.

I don't mind being the vote though, because as everyone always says, I'm a student with no role. I do wish we'd go after an actual wolf. But other than that, I really don't have any other evidence to prove I'm good.

[Schmidty]

Other than my roleplying Day 1 vote, I don't really understand why I'm being targeted. Meh, whatever.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't find that scenario very likely. For all we knew a tie would mean no lynch...would a wolf want to force that potential outcome with a couple of villagers available for kill? I'm not giving Lathum a 100% clean bill of villagership, but I don't think he makes a good option to look at when there are more suspicious ones.

Not saying it's the case, just a possibility. The only thing I feel 100 percent certain of is that they are not both wolves. Of the 4 possiblities I rank the likelihood from highest to lowest:

Both villagers
hoops wolf, Lathum villager
Lathum wolf, hoops villager
Both wolves (feel this is as near to 0% chance as possible)

[JAG]

Because your vote was off the wall Schmidty. You voted 3rd party (6th party really).

After giving it more thought, I can't bring myself to keep a vote on Schmidty at this point. With a wolf on the line (at least 1, maybe 2 depending on lerriuqs), would another wolf really throw out a meaningless vote on a random person that's bound to stick out like a sore thumb? As I see it, it doesn't make a lot of sense to do as a villager because you're inviting attention on yourself for no good reason, but it seems like an even more lackluster wolf move for the same reason.

I'm going to go with EagleFan because I've disagreed with his analysis a few times already and he was a Pass voter.

UNVOTE SCHMIDTY
VOTE EAGLEFAN

[Danny]

ring of fire, ring of fire

[nfg22]

Hmm...EF isn't giving me horrible vibes. Also, I don't see lathum as a candidate seeing as he had a chance to save Danny and didnt. Then he voted for Hoops, who is unverified. Hoops voted for a known villager both days...Which was understandable yesterday because he saved himself but still, out of the Lathum/hoops argument Im going hoops. Also, maybe it is my RP sentiments but I cant bring myself to incriminate EF either. All the others with unverified or one villager vote...that doesnt add up to much in my mind...I'm willing to change to EF later seeing as he has two villager votes but for now...

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Other than my roleplying Day 1 vote, I don't really understand why I'm being targeted. Meh, whatever.

Personally it's the combination of voting and barely contributing. Not meant as a slight against you, I just rarely trust people who are UTR.

[The Jackal]

Well, I'll slide to my other UTR target in an effort to keep my vote relevant today, since there doesn't seem to be much directed at Schmidty, at least today.

unvote schmidty

vote ntn

If it ends up being a EF-hoops showdown I'll revise my thinking later, but it's early yet.

[lerriuqs]

Vote Eaglefan

He cast his vote at a time to keep Pass close to Danny...

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Personally it's the combination of voting and barely contributing. Not meant as a slight against you, I just rarely trust people who are UTR.

Come on. There are only 10 freaking pages, and not a lot to go on. I've never been the best at analysis anyway, as everyone knows, and this game has been even harder for me because everything seems pretty vague. I prefer reading other people's posts, rather than posting to post and blowing smoke up peoples butts just to seem active. I'm not remotely saying that that's what others are doing, it's just what it would be if I were doing that.

[Schmidty]

Unvote JAG

I don't know where to go right now. I'll decide later.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Come on. There are only 10 freaking pages, and not a lot to go on. I've never been the best at analysis anyway, as everyone knows, and this game has been even harder for me because everything seems pretty vague. I prefer reading other people's posts, rather than posting to post and blowing smoke up peoples butts just to seem active. I'm not remotely saying that that's what others are doing, it's just what it would be if I were doing that.

That's all well and good but you just have to accept that that's a very easy way for a wolf to hide, is all.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Vote Eaglefan

He cast his vote at a time to keep Pass close to Danny...

I explained that too. Danny is a very good player and I saw no reason to vote him out day one when there was a better than average chance he was a villager. The Danny day one vote made no sense. Granted it helped us in hindsight but its pretty easy to say that now. It's not like there was overwhelming evidence to vote for him. It also made no sense for there to be the potential for a runaway where we have nothing else to learn.

Danny is one of the players who (barring him coming out and announcing "I am a wolf") will not get my day one vote.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That's all well and good but you just have to accept that that's a very easy way for a wolf to hide, is all.

Then I must be a wolf every game.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Then I must be a wolf every game.

What can you point to to show you're a villager if you say nothing and make off the wall votes though? If you're quiet every game, the only thing people have to go by to judge your innocence is your voting. If you make a pointless vote, people have nothing to go by and thus you don't end up trusted.

I'm not disrespecting your play style, I'm just trying to point out why people would be suspicious of you.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF, I was initially thinking of looking at either the Danny or Pass voters but there are four unknowns on each (I'm treating myself as a known, but if you don't then there are five unknowns on Pass D1) - those are probably not any better odds than hitting a wolf with random selection.

Now, if you assume that there would be two Blakekin on Pass Day 1 - in an attempt to keep the Blakekin alive for another day - then the odds get interesting. As in, better than random. I'm not convinced that this is the case, but I think that the wolves would prefer to keep their numbers elevated, all things being equal.

This is a very good point and one which I want to explore. There are five people on Pass on day 1: Claph, Hoops, EF, Jackal, and JAG

I am in favor of voting for any of those five basically, although it looks like my JAG vote has no legs. That being said, it looks like the best push will be the EF-Hoops runoff which could be highly rewarding or highly damaging for us (take out a good wolf or take out a good villager). I'll keep my placeholder where it is at for now but will probably have to move it prior to leaving for football (softball) tonight.

[The Jackal]

I think this is correct:

EF - 4 (hoops 450, Jets 464, JAG 471, lerriuqs 476)
ntn - 3 (EF 443, clap 459, Jackal 475)
JAG - 1 (PB 446)
hoops - 1 (nfg 473)

yet to vote: TheNorm, MartinD, ntn, Lathum, Schmidty

[ntndeacon]

At least for the moment I am gonna go with what I said earlier about the first vote on Danny. I do feel this could easily change, especially since I don't wanna be burned up.

Vote nfg

[EagleFan]

"Michael wants to know what's going on."


Sorry, watching guilty pleasure number 12...

(and it seemed too quiet in here)

[MartinD]

Catching up - looks like it's an EagleFan-ntndeacon runoff, unless there's a late move towards someone else.

I'll need a bit more time to look back over a few things before I post my vote...

[ntndeacon]

I will mention that if I do not get killed tonight, that no one should visit me this evening.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by JAG

What can you point to to show you're a villager if you say nothing and make off the wall votes though? If you're quiet every game, the only thing people have to go by to judge your innocence is your voting. If you make a pointless vote, people have nothing to go by and thus you don't end up trusted.

I'm not disrespecting your play style, I'm just trying to point out why people would be suspicious of you.

And I said - then vote for me. How can I defend myself at this point? You've said what you've seen. I don't know what to say about it. What do you want me to say? It's not like we have anything other than 2 days of voting, one of which was a throwaway rp vote. I'm not sure what you're looking for me to say here.

[Schmidty]

I think I just abused the word "Say". I'm sorry Mr. Say.

[ntndeacon]

I say that since I doubt either myself or Eagle Fan will be offed by the Blakein tonight regardless of our loyalty, since we are so involved in today's vote off.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I will mention that if I do not get killed tonight, that no one should visit me this evening.

Not sure what you're meaning here, although I suspect that it's more to do with me not picking up the somewhat subtle point you're trying to make than anything. It seems to me that this post could be interpreted in at least a couple of different ways...

[EagleFan]

Unsure how to handle the ntn post. Are the wolves told of a role not in the game? Didn't read through the rules to know for certain. He is seemingly claiming a role that can't be scanned (if I am reading that correctly and he is claiming the paranoid role, whatever the actual title is).

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Unsure how to handle the ntn post. Are the wolves told of a role not in the game? Didn't read through the rules to know for certain. He is seemingly claiming a role that can't be scanned (if I am reading that correctly and he is claiming the paranoid role, whatever the actual title is).

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

List of Roles:

Paranoid – Will shoot anyone dead who visits during the night, no matter what role the person has.

This role?

[ntndeacon]

I am not saying that I am the only person that can claim what I claimed. If there are others with the same power as I have claimed, remember it is not out of the range of the rules to have two people on any given day with the same role.

[ntndeacon]

I will be gone for about an hour or so, and will love to discuss it more at that point. (Money awaits)

[MartinD]

I'm not going to bring another player into today's vote, so it's either EagleFan or ntndeacon. EagleFan has been playing 'helpful villager', while ntn has been a bit less active. EF's Chapter 2 enslutting does raise a bit of doubt in my mind, as there's a possibility that the wolves might have used the Slut on one of their own to try to gain trust - it's only a little bit of doubt, though, as it's also very possible that the wolves decided to take a stab in the dark on the first night.

There isn't a lot to work with here, but I'm going to take a positive interpretation of ntndeacon's recent post that's could be read in a number of different ways.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

(And I'm finished for the night at this point...)

[The Jackal]

You might be acting intentionally vague NTN, and EF is leading in the count right now so you aren't in immediate danger, but it's suspicious enough to have me keep my vote where it is for now.

[EagleFan]

So basically ntn claims a role that sounds like the paranoid role and then immediately makes an ammended claim to cover his tracks in case of a counter claim, yet I get the vote?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

So basically ntn claims a role that sounds like the paranoid role and then immediately makes an ammended claim to cover his tracks in case of a counter claim, yet I get the vote?

I'd like to hear what some people have to say about ntn, that's for sure.