Werewolf XXIII - Lost - Game Over! Survivors win!

[hoopsguy]

If there is a human assassin, I think that Mr. Wednesday would have been a very, very curious choice. He was in jail, we don't know what he can or cannot do if he stays alive there. I don't know how the events of last night played out in terms of PMs sent, but if I had been asked to predict the results I would have been way, way off.

[Raiders Army]

I'm not sure what to think at this point. I think I've drunk too much beer.

You know nobody is on the killing block, since I believe lynch is late Monday.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Very interesting that those two died...and it looks like wednesday was killed by a human assasin(neck snap) while the others kills gramat(neck slash??)

The interesting part for me is the crash we were all supposed to run away from.

Im confused why almost everyone other than me and (I think Raiders) think this was a human assassin instead of simply the lynch vote. I guess this is not a huge deal to argue about, but I think just for the record, understanding what his death came from is important to know.

Below is why I feel it is a lynching:

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Signed up:
1. Kwhit
2. Desnudo
3. Alan T
4. mckerney
5. Swaggs
6. Grammaticus died at the hands of The Others, day 2.
7. spleen1015
8. Raiders Army
9. tanglewood
10. Schmidty
11. Desmond
12. hoopsguy
13. Blade6119
14. Sndvls
15. Mr. Wednesday lynched, day 1.
16. saldana
17. pennywisesb
18. RPI-Fan
19. Celeval
20. kingfc22
21. bearcat729


Alt: Path12, Packerfanatic

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

a lottery ticket and a piece of paper with the numbers 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, and 42 scribbled on it. In fact, those are the same numbers on the lottery ticket.

Dont buy lottery tickets, this is lost's way of conedeming gambling.

Interesting night, Mckerney had me convinced we was going down...i was sure he would be targeted just to screw me over. Hmmmm, maybe he was, but ardent just limits night kills to two people? Or maybe he wasnt and im just paranoid? Or maybe...i dont know what im talking about

[Raiders Army]

Drinking beer is somewhat counterproductive to the thread. I'm out and will participate in tother threads until tomorrow morning. Peace out.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

[b]i dont know what im talking about

Finally, some logic from Blade!

[hoopsguy]

Alan, thanks for posting this. I think we should have a definitive answer on this at the conclusion of Night 2, but it is very hard to dispute what you have posted here.

That said, does this sequence make sense to you?
1.) group votes for lynch
2.) Mr. W ends up with short straw, is thrown in jail
3.) AE tells MrW what to say after he is in jail
4.) guy in jail dies overnight?

Again, hard to argue with what you cite. But this seems like a weird mechanic for death by lynching.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, thanks for posting this. I think we should have a definitive answer on this at the conclusion of Night 2, but it is very hard to dispute what you have posted here.

That said, does this sequence make sense to you?
1.) group votes for lynch
2.) Mr. W ends up with short straw, is thrown in jail
3.) AE tells MrW what to say after he is in jail
4.) guy in jail dies overnight?

Again, hard to argue with what you cite. But this seems like a weird mechanic for death by lynching.

Im betting we have a jail master or something, and he gets to decide their fate as long as he is alive/not in jail

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, thanks for posting this. I think we should have a definitive answer on this at the conclusion of Night 2, but it is very hard to dispute what you have posted here.

That said, does this sequence make sense to you?
1.) group votes for lynch
2.) Mr. W ends up with short straw, is thrown in jail
3.) AE tells MrW what to say after he is in jail
4.) guy in jail dies overnight?

Again, hard to argue with what you cite. But this seems like a weird mechanic for death by lynching.

Thats what it seems like happened last night at least. Maybe the way we vote someone for a lynch, or the percentage of votes they receive, or the night action in some way affects what happen to them? Maybe there is a role from one of the survivors to 1 time free a "lynchee" at night, or something else comes into play here.

[hoopsguy]

I'm curious about the role that Mr. W would have played going forward. The fact that he had the drugs on his person doesn't necessarily speak well of his character - from what I read last night Charlie had kicked his drug habit and not re-visited it on the show.

Not that this is intended as some sort of vindication for the vote last night. I was shooting for an "other" and there is zero reason to think at this point that Mr. W was an other. Just trying to understand what took place yesterday ...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm curious about the role that Mr. W would have played going forward. The fact that he had the drugs on his person doesn't necessarily speak well of his character - from what I read last night Charlie had kicked his drug habit and not re-visited it on the show.

Not that this is intended as some sort of vindication for the vote last night. I was shooting for an "other" and there is zero reason to think at this point that Mr. W was an other. Just trying to understand what took place yesterday ...

My guess is since he is a "roled" person from the show he was not a bad guy. I guess my handicap here is I do not know what "roled" people in the show actually are bad guys or if that will carry over to here.

[hoopsguy]

If the vote was percentage driven, then Mr. W had 8 of a total 21 votes. So the % to die would have to be less than 40 if that dictated the decision. I'll be surprised if this is the game mechanic.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My guess is since he is a "roled" person from the show he was not a bad guy. I guess my handicap here is I do not know what "roled" people in the show actually are bad guys or if that will carry over to here.

Charlie is a good guy on the show, despite his problems. It's nearly a given that Mr. W was a survivor. Besides possibly being the weak-willed survivor though, I can't really think of another special ability that he might have had.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If there is a human assassin, I think that Mr. Wednesday would have been a very, very curious choice. He was in jail, we don't know what he can or cannot do if he stays alive there. I don't know how the events of last night played out in terms of PMs sent, but if I had been asked to predict the results I would have been way, way off.

I agree. I can't come up with a good reason why Mr. W would be targeted by the assassin. He already had a ton of suspicion on him from day 1 voting, so it doesn't really make sense to take him out IMO. I have a feeling that people voted into jail probably die during the night phase (ie. Mr W wasn't assassinated). I guess we'll have to wait until the next lynch to find out though.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I agree. I can't come up with a good reason why Mr. W would be targeted by the assassin. He already had a ton of suspicion on him from day 1 voting, so it doesn't really make sense to take him out IMO. I have a feeling that people voted into jail probably die during the night phase (ie. Mr W wasn't assassinated). I guess we'll have to wait until the next lynch to find out though.

I think he was assasinated for reasons how his neck being snapped and that everyone was away when it happened...to me its fairly clear he was killed by another villager, regardless of what the first page may say

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I think he was assasinated for reasons how his neck being snapped and that everyone was away when it happened...to me its fairly clear he was killed by another villager, regardless of what the first page may say

So along with this thinking, would you think it was a one time thing, or something that happens every night? If a one time thing, why choose then and why choose Mr. W?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So along with this thinking, would you think it was a one time thing, or something that happens every night? If a one time thing, why choose then and why choose Mr. W?

i think, as with most assasin roles, it was more then likely a one time thing...and as for why mr. w? Well, charlie had weak morals and didnt like us(from his comment about our chlothes)...it possible the assasin took all this to mean he was an other(or the turncoat)...now i would have gone a different direction, but i could see someone else's train of thought on this matter

[hoopsguy]

As far as I can tell, the song lyric was something that was written by his band prior to arriving on the island. But I would defer to someone who watches the show to give a definitive answer on that point.

It doesn't mean a thing in terms of what an assassin might have done. Either way we should get better information about how the night kills work by the end of Night 2. Not happy about having to wait another day to better understand the process, but not surprised either in a hidden roles game.

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

As far as I can tell, the song lyric was something that was written by his band prior to arriving on the island. But I would defer to someone who watches the show to give a definitive answer on that point.

Absolutely... the chorus of DriveShaft's one real hit song:

You all, everybody
You all, everybody
I don't like you stupid people
Wearing expensive clothes
You all, everybody
You all, everybody

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Celeval

Absolutely... the chorus of DriveShaft's one real hit song:

You all, everybody
You all, everybody
I don't like you stupid people
Wearing expensive clothes
You all, everybody
You all, everybody

perhaps our assasin made the assumption because of Wednesday quoting the lyric that he was charlie, and came to the conclusion that charlie might have been the turncoat? someone else said that no one on the show is sure if he is a good guy or bad guy, so perhaps the assassin is one of us that watches the show and used this as his reason for snapping wednesday's neck.....or he just got lynched.

[Blade6119]

Well, if lottery hurley wasnt the target and druggie charlie wasnt where did the assasin go?

Maybe a bodyguard role got lucky by protecting someone on night one?

[Blade6119]

dola, maybe the assasin didnt attack at all..forgot that small opportunity

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by saldana

Someone else said that no one on the show is sure if he is a good guy or bad guy.

Well, I wouldn't say that... Charlie is definately not an Other. He's a good guy, although a good guy with problems (the heroin at times, etc.).

[Bearcat729]

In the show Ana Lucia puts Nathan in the prison and Goodwin snaps his neck during the night while everyone sleeps. It seems to me that the move is just a delayed lynch from this morning following a pattern set forth in the show.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

In the show Ana Lucia puts Nathan in the prison and Goodwin snaps his neck during the night while everyone sleeps. It seems to me that the move is just a delayed lynch from this morning following a pattern set forth in the show.

excellent, that is the explanation i was looking for...i think with this knowledge, it is safe to say that there was only one kill last night (gram), and mr.w's delayed death was still a result of his lynching.

this means we still have our assassin (assuming we have one) and the others only got one kill last night. i realize we still lost 2 survivors, but the fact that the others only got one makes me feel a little better about our chances.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

In the show Ana Lucia puts Nathan in the prison and Goodwin snaps his neck during the night while everyone sleeps. It seems to me that the move is just a delayed lynch from this morning following a pattern set forth in the show.

this was my thought too. I'd say Mr. W was good and if his neck snapping wasn't a delayed lynch then we have an assassian among us. Why kill Mr. W in this case as I think it was pretty clear he was giving hints he was Charlie, even though like I stated before he could have looke them up....although it would take a good bit of knowledge of where to start as one couldn't just to a google or wikipedia search for the lyrics.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

this was my thought too. I'd say Mr. W was good and if his neck snapping wasn't a delayed lynch then we have an assassian among us. Why kill Mr. W in this case as I think it was pretty clear he was giving hints he was Charlie, even though like I stated before he could have looke them up....although it would take a good bit of knowledge of where to start as one couldn't just to a google or wikipedia search for the lyrics.

But why would ardent set it up so he goes to jail just to die...it seems like there is more to it then just a delayed lynch...that much seems clear to me

[Bearcat729]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

But why would ardent set it up so he goes to jail just to die...it seems like there is more to it then just a delayed lynch...that much seems clear to me

Because it fits in with the Lost story?

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Grammaticus is eventually found dead. His throat was slashed.

Ouch, good luck it looks to be a very interesting game.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

Because it fits in with the Lost story?

So you assume this will happen with every lynch? I dont

[Desnudo]

Since it says lynched next to his name, I think we can assume that he was lynched. Not being facetious.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Well, if lottery hurley wasnt the target and druggie charlie wasnt where did the assasin go?

Maybe a bodyguard role got lucky by protecting someone on night one?

That's definitely a possibility. I'm going to the bunker to look for more clues. LOL.

AlanT, maybe hoopsguy, Blade, the rest of them know something we don't about two kills???

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by saldana

excellent, that is the explanation i was looking for...i think with this knowledge, it is safe to say that there was only one kill last night (gram), and mr.w's delayed death was still a result of his lynching.

this means we still have our assassin (assuming we have one) and the others only got one kill last night. i realize we still lost 2 survivors, but the fact that the others only got one makes me feel a little better about our chances.

How can the assassin and others get one kill last night? I don't understand your post. If the assassin and others got one kill each last night, there would be three people dead. That's why I don't think there's an assassin.

There is the possibility a player is a "Locke" like character and can do a one-time kill, since we're talking about that.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

That's definitely a possibility. I'm going to the bunker to look for more clues. LOL.

AlanT, maybe hoopsguy, Blade, the rest of them know something we don't about two kills???

I hope someone can tell us more about what happened...interesting night, but my current guess is some was protected last night. Just doesnt make sense with this rule set and that lynch...something doesnt add up to me

[Blade6119]

Going into today, my trust list reads like this:

HEAVY TRUST:
NO ONE

MILD TRUST:
NO ONE

LITTLE TRUST: NO ONE

DISTRUST: EVERYONE

...for once im left with no idea where to go...right now king or mckerney would get my vote, with hoops a distant third

[Blade6119]

dola, if you need reasons for any of those 3 i can give them

[Blade6119]

triple dola
the above post should have been double dola lol

[Blade6119]

QUAD DOLA

Im beginning to think this will be the game old blade will come back...i have absolutely no reads(only had mr. w) and am literally pulling at straws...dont take what i say to heart, i have no idea whos what, where, or why

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, reads a little like my trust list.

The "triple dola" post made me chuckle.

I know it is only Day 2 but I can't remember a game where I felt like I had less direction after 400+ posts than this one.

Mild trust (just to separate a little bit) - Blade, Raiders

Mainly because they are putting a little bit of heat on me for what should certainly look like a questionable Day 1. I have the luxury of knowing I'm a survivor, but I certainly understand that the other survivors do not.

[Celeval]

I'm posting just to bring Blade back to his senses before he hits 5k posts.

:-D

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, reads a little like my trust list.

The "triple dola" post made me chuckle.

I know it is only Day 2 but I can't remember a game where I felt like I had less direction after 400+ posts than this one.

Mild trust (just to separate a little bit) - Blade, Raiders

Mainly because they are putting a little bit of heat on me for what should certainly look like a questionable Day 1. I have the luxury of knowing I'm a survivor, but I certainly understand that the other survivors do not.

Raiders is far from the top of my trust list...alan taught me last game that sometimes the people who seem most trustworty are trying to be. Wolves have the luxury of knowing who to accuse to look smart(or defend). Raiders is up there with you. I might end up voting random today...honestly

[hoopsguy]

Blade, since you brought up Alan T - how does his game this time feel to you compared to last game?

[hoopsguy]

For those who didn't read WW 21, Alan T was a wolf. Part of how he played was to try to loosely couple Blade's thoughts in order to gain his trust. Broad summary, but that is what I'm asking about in the above post.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, since you brought up Alan T - how does his game this time feel to you compared to last game?

It seems to me hes has not played as well(that means sharing my views LOL)....which taking last game into effect prob. means he is good...

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Sure. In no particular order...well, it's particular to me, but not to anyone else, and certainly officialish:

Mr. Wednesday -- Hoopsguy, Alan T, bearcat729, spleen1015, kingfc22, desmond, desnudo, mckerney

kingfc22 -- blade6119, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, Pennywisesb

Alan T -- Saldana, Celeval

Blade6119 -- Schmidty, Swaggs

Grammaticus -- Sndvls

Desmond -- Grammaticus

RPI -- Kwhit

Alan voted wednesday...which i dont like...knowing his play style that makes me want to trust him...penny and raiders pique my interest with their king votes...id imagine one wolf on w, one on king, one on one of the others, and one other somewhere random...so since w was good, i know im good, raiders and penny catch my interest.

Sun and desmond would seem good, as i cant imagine the wolves killing someone soo linked soo early. Leaving schmidty swaggs and kwhit, of which i think 1 is a wolf...thats good odds to me

[Blade6119]

DOLA, thats assuming king is innocent...if hes not its an entirely different story, mostly putting it on you and mckerney

[hoopsguy]

I got zero response on this yesterday (Post #434):

OK, time to think like a "wolf" - what do you do if you see an early bandwagon forming on a survivor?
1.) You are excited to be getting a free pass on Day 1.
2.) You make sure that the wolves spread out their votes - if possible, on completely different people but if it is a two-horse race then don't draw attention
3.) For those not voting for the lynchee, put something out there that can be re-read later as supporting his cause.

Is this how people would expect a wolf to play? #1 - duh. #2 - where do you think the "others" put their votes. #3 - am I overthinking here, or does this make a lot of sense?

[hoopsguy]

Looks like we were headed down similar paths - voting records.

As I had indicated earlier, I have a small measure of trust right now in you and Raiders. So that leaves Pennywise on your list that voted for King. And he was very low profile on Day 1. Even before looking at the King votes I had him on the "less trusted" end of the scale out of the 18 guys I'm evaluating (I'm taking myself out of that list as well as the dead).

[hoopsguy]

The Pennywise vote came a little over two hours before the deadline and created a tie between Mr. W and King (using Post #403 by Alan T as a reference).

That is when I moved my vote from King to Mr. W - I didn't like that the vote had swung from 4-1 to 5-5 in the space of 50 posts.

Had I been around for the deadline I don't think I would have left my vote on Mr. W when two more people came in behind me. I wanted to create a run-off that would force the "others" to save their guy, but I now think we had a two survivor race. I guess I like thinking that better than the alternative, which is that I strongly aided and abetted an other in avoiding a Day 1 lynch before they had to commit themselves to saving him.

[hoopsguy]

Will be back to discuss this stuff mid-afternoon; have to go to work for a few hours.