WW CLVII - Ghostbusters - Game Over (result in post 1521)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Your logic is flawed

early in games it isn't uncommon that wolves woud rather hunt for a rolled villager than kill a vanilla villager.

The biggest thing is I was under so much pressure yesterday, and am still unknown today, so why would the wolves waste their time night killing me when there is a high liklihood I will be a lynch target today?

I know from my wolf game with Murray that he felt like the wolves should be going after vanilla villagers, so I think I can deduce what he's talking about. But Murray, that's actually the opposite case. Usually the wolves will ignore anyone they think is vanilla, hoping to night kill a role.

And also, I think waht Lathum meant last night was that if he was a wolf he would have faked as the seer or some such if he was on the block, not that he would have "fake revealed" as a vanilla. Does that make sense, Murray?

[Autumn]

We need to consolidate, and I won't be around for a while, so I need to do so now. I don't think Pass is going to get any votes right now, and I feel most fishy about Mauchow. For the record I would also consider PF and CW at this point.

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE MAUCHOW

[JAG]

mauchow 3 - bhlloy (386), Passacaglia (416), Autumn (429)
Autumn 2 - Lathum (326), PackerFanatic (447)
Lathum 2 - mauchow (423), murra5y (445)
murra5y 2 - Coffee Warlord (431), Narcizo (441)
Coffee Warlord 1 - Chubby (356)
PackerFanatic 1 - Danny (429)

No vote: fontisian, hoopsguy, KatyLied, Zinto

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I know from my wolf game with Murray that he felt like the wolves should be going after vanilla villagers, so I think I can deduce what he's talking about. But Murray, that's actually the opposite case. Usually the wolves will ignore anyone they think is vanilla, hoping to night kill a role.

Following this logic, why wouldn't 18 people have declared being vanilla?

I also will never understand why wolves do what is logical. Isn't there too much experience to follow the same usual pattern? Too much trust in a game built on lies.

Also when did I use that many "!'s" now you got me checking my own posts.

[mauchow]

Well I'm not voting autumn over lathum so I'm not going to tie it up.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Following this logic, why wouldn't 18 people have declared being vanilla?

I also will never understand why wolves do what is logical. Isn't there too much experience to follow the same usual pattern? Too much trust in a game built on lies.

Also when did I use that many "!'s" now you got me checking my own posts.

Everyone pretty much does declare as a vanilla villager on day one. You shouldnt do otherwise unless you want to die quickly or lessen the chance for the village to win.

[hoopsguy]

At this point I've got murrayyyyy as my most trusted vanilla villager. His earlier posts on the "quick night kill" are indicative of someone who has not played in a single deadline game. If he was a wolf, his teammates would have been able to help him out with this.

I think the likelihood of him thinking to bluff on this in the thread to be pretty remote.

This also strongly suggests that he is in fact a "vanilla villager" rather than a roled villager, since those people also have night actions that are due at the same "single deadline" ... so one person figured out (I hope) and the rest of the group left to go.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Why would you be a lynch target today? I've been doing more D1 reading than today but have you jumped to the lead in votes? You just said that early on they try for specialty characters. If you are truly vanilla then why target you? Why wouldn't they leave you around for a few days and take you out then?

I would be a lynch target because the village gets info about last nights vote from killing me. The wolves don't want to night kill me because by taking away someone who will be a likely lynch target again today it increases the odds of the village voting out a wolf.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Everyone pretty much does declare as a vanilla villager on day one. You shouldnt do otherwise unless you want to die quickly or lessen the chance for the village to win.

I actually disagree with this. Declaring as a vanilla should be a reveal, the same way a role is revealed.

I doubt wolf Lathum would reveal as a role at that stage but I also doubt wolf Lathum would burn his bridges by claiming vanilla.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

At this point I've got murrayyyyy as my most trusted vanilla villager. His earlier posts on the "quick night kill" are indicative of someone who has not played in a single deadline game. If he was a wolf, his teammates would have been able to help him out with this.

I think the likelihood of him thinking to bluff on this in the thread to be pretty remote.

This also strongly suggests that he is in fact a "vanilla villager" rather than a roled villager, since those people also have night actions that are due at the same "single deadline" ... so one person figured out (I hope) and the rest of the group left to go.

I feel exactly the same way. You put it in better words than I've tried to say this afternoon.

Damn phone.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

mauchow 3 - bhlloy (386), Passacaglia (416), Autumn (429)
Autumn 2 - Lathum (326), PackerFanatic (447)
Lathum 2 - mauchow (423), murra5y (445)
murra5y 2 - Coffee Warlord (431), Narcizo (441)
Coffee Warlord 1 - Chubby (356)
PackerFanatic 1 - Danny (429)

No vote: fontisian, hoopsguy, KatyLied, Zinto

Pretty quiet mid-day rampdown for CW from 5 to 1.
Danny, murra5y, PF, and someone else (I think mauchow) all jumped off that train.

Not sure what to make of it, but seems like quite a bit of groupthink for everyone to move up and down the ladder mid-day like that.

[Chubby]

meh, not ready to move yet

and yes, i agree that if DT had revealed at 9:57 he would have easily been saved last night grrrrr

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I actually disagree with this. Declaring as a vanilla should be a reveal, the same way a role is revealed.

I doubt wolf Lathum would reveal as a role at that stage but I also doubt wolf Lathum would burn his bridges by claiming vanilla.

I am talking more when the game has opened up and people say "vanilla villager" checking in.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pretty quiet mid-day rampdown for CW from 5 to 1.
Danny, murra5y, PF, and someone else (I think mauchow) all jumped off that train.

Not sure what to make of it, but seems like quite a bit of groupthink for everyone to move up and down the ladder mid-day like that.

And his vote on murrayyy makes me think...

[Passacaglia]

So this moves from a CW runaway, to having him in 5th place now? That seems a little "uh-uh" to me.

UNVOTE MAUCHOW
VOTE COFEE WARLORD

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

At this point I've got murrayyyyy as my most trusted vanilla villager. His earlier posts on the "quick night kill" are indicative of someone who has not played in a single deadline game. If he was a wolf, his teammates would have been able to help him out with this.

I think the likelihood of him thinking to bluff on this in the thread to be pretty remote.

This also strongly suggests that he is in fact a "vanilla villager" rather than a roled villager, since those people also have night actions that are due at the same "single deadline" ... so one person figured out (I hope) and the rest of the group left to go.

People probably should ignore me I guess. After all, they know I've only played 2 games. In my second game I was killed day one as a declared vanilla villager so I'm not sure I'm 100% on board with this wolves never kill a vanilla D-1 statement.

Still in a learned process with this game. For all I know the silent majority are the wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So this moves from a CW runaway, to having him in 5th place now? That seems a little "uh-uh" to me.

UNVOTE MAUCHOW
VOTE COFEE WARLORD

Pass, do you have a reason to vote CW outside of the run/un-run?
I agree it is somewhat odd, although I guess my eyebrow raise was more on the people who had relatively quickly voted/unvoted him rather than on CW himself.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pretty quiet mid-day rampdown for CW from 5 to 1.
Danny, murra5y, PF, and someone else (I think mauchow) all jumped off that train.

Not sure what to make of it, but seems like quite a bit of groupthink for everyone to move up and down the ladder mid-day like that.

I think it's pretty much a given if a villager gets up by a bunch middle of the day, they will not end up in the running by a few hours later. The village automatically jumps off a pileup like that, which is the real reason not to do it. If I want someone to actually get lynched I never pile on them midday because that's the best way to assure it won't happen.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

People probably should ignore me I guess. After all, they know I've only played 2 games. In my second game I was killed day one as a declared vanilla villager so I'm not sure I'm 100% on board with this wolves never kill a vanilla D-1 statement.

Still in a learned process with this game. For all I know the silent majority are the wolves.

No, not ignore at all. I actually think you have some terrific points about wolves wanting/needing to do unconventional things. And I think that someone can step in and play a really good game of WW, both as a villager and as a wolf, right from their first game.

That said, there are some standard mechanics we've seen on this forum over the 150+ games that you haven't in two games, as seen by your posts. I guess I'm just trying to be a little opportunistic when evaluating your posts to help me figure out "good" and "bad". Same evaluation process I do with everyone I play with, albeit with a different context for each player depending on our shared history on the forum.

Silent majority can't be wolves or else they would have their 1:1 ratio and game would be over

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think it's pretty much a given if a villager gets up by a bunch middle of the day, they will not end up in the running by a few hours later. The village automatically jumps off a pileup like that, which is the real reason not to do it. If I want someone to actually get lynched I never pile on them midday because that's the best way to assure it won't happen.

I guess, but I'm not used to seeing that kind of a ramp-up without any smoking gun. I'm sure it has happened, but as I was catching up the movement seemed sort of odd ... I just didn't quite get the group-think, I guess.

[hoopsguy]

As far as Lathum as a candidate, it would be an interesting game of chicken for him to play suggesting early enough that he is vanilla and that his loss is not great. Doesn't mean he wouldn't try it, but it takes a certain amount of courage and conviction to do so. If he is willing to do so as a wolf, then he can enjoy the benefits of not getting serious looks from me for a couple of days.

CW and Mauchow are the remaining candidates from Day 1. So a question I'm grappling with is whether I want to go with the idea that there a wolf in the 4 candidates (DT/Lathum/CW/Mau) and thus great meaning behind the votes? Or that we had four villagers, in which case we are most likely looking at some kind of dispersal of wolves among the votes? Right now, either one of those seems like a defensible approach to Day 2.

Going to look if CW/Mau are among the Lathum voters yesterday and are not late movers. As noted earlier (by Danny, I think?), wolves would have relatively little reason for late movement if one of their own was not at risk.

[Autumn]

I don't put any stock in Lathum making that claim. He made it hours ahead of deadline, and I would not be shocked at all if he made a different claim if it came down to the wire and said he was trying not to reveal the first time. He's smart enough to know that the "don't worry about me, I'm vanilla" routine gets some votes off of you. And he's savvy enough to still make a reveal or fake reveal at deadline anyway.

[hoopsguy]

And no overlap. Remaining Lathum voters = Autumn, Fontsian, and bhlloy.

Wolf "dispersal theory" works better if we know that there were no wolf candidates. Or have a better idea on how many starting wolves are in the game. For example, I think there is a reasonable chance that there are only two starting wolves, who both have a chance to hunt for Gatekeeper/Keymaster each night in addition to killing. Do I think that is how it works? Dunno, but if we are going to have a reasonable shot at Gozer in the game don't we need some reasonable chance of those two getting possessed in a timely manner?

Anyway, starting to ramble at this point. Just not sure what assumptions I'm ready to make at this stage of the game other than murra5y is not my enemy. So unless I think of something clever over the next couple of hours this will be about as ill-informed a vote as D1.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't put any stock in Lathum making that claim. He made it hours ahead of deadline, and I would not be shocked at all if he made a different claim if it came down to the wire and said he was trying not to reveal the first time.

worked really well for DT...

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Going to look if CW/Mau are among the Lathum voters yesterday and are not late movers. As noted earlier (by Danny, I think?), wolves would have relatively little reason for late movement if one of their own was not at risk.

Why wouldn't you look at them hiding votes on each other early? Mau jumped off Coffee to vote DT as did Coffee. They never voted for Lathum. But Lathum played his vote on them all day until he jumped on Coffee.

[hoopsguy]

On a completely unrelated note, DT got roled villagers three games in a row (excluding wrestling where everyone was "roled", I guess). Pretty long odds against that ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Why wouldn't you look at them hiding votes on each other early? Mau jumped off Coffee to vote DT as did Coffee. They never voted for Lathum. But Lathum played his vote on them all day until he jumped on Coffee.

Reasonable theory - has anyone published a vote/unvote chart from D1?
I'm not going to be here long enough to whip one up myself, and by the time I get back it will likely be 20-30 minutes before deadline.

For now, I'm planning to hold my vote until that time.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Reasonable theory - has anyone published a vote/unvote chart from D1?
I'm not going to be here long enough to whip one up myself, and by the time I get back it will likely be 20-30 minutes before deadline.

For now, I'm planning to hold my vote until that time.

Post 342

[hoopsguy]

Thanks. OK, so lets talk this through a bit:

Why wouldn't you look at them hiding votes on each other early? Mau jumped off Coffee to vote DT as did Coffee. They never voted for Lathum. But Lathum played his vote on them all day until he jumped on Coffee.

1st point - Mau jumped off CW to vote DT as did Coffee.
So would this be working with the idea that both of these guys are wolves who had early votes for each other and then kind of an "oh crap" period when they emerged as two of the three leaders?

2nd point - They never voted for Lathum
I'm pretty sure you aren't suggesting all three of them are wolves ... right? Just want to get a sense for where your relative suspicions lie when analyzing these trends.

3rd point - Lathum played his vote on them all day before he jumped on Coffee.
Lathum starts on Autumn, moves to mauchow, then to CW, then back to mau. He swings over to DT in the last hour. So I'm not sure I follow this point, possibly losing you in the pronouns (who is "them"? mau? He didn't end on CW, but instead on DT)

[mauchow]

Murrayyy..another thing, don't feel bad if you aren't able to do some crazy analysis of posts and do what some of these guys do. You'll get a feel for it soon enough. I have played 50+ games and still can't analyze well at all. My game is more based on reads with a mix of using other people's analysis.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Wolf "dispersal theory" works better if we know that there were no wolf candidates. Or have a better idea on how many starting wolves are in the game. For example, I think there is a reasonable chance that there are only two starting wolves, who both have a chance to hunt for Gatekeeper/Keymaster each night in addition to killing. Do I think that is how it works? Dunno, but if we are going to have a reasonable shot at Gozer in the game don't we need some reasonable chance of those two getting possessed in a timely manner?

This paragraph reads really oddly, especially the end. It sounds like you're writing from the point of view of a non-Terror Dog scum, or from the perspective of a scum player trying to act like they know less than they do.

Vote hoopsguy

[Coffee Warlord]

Well that's sorta out of left field there.

[fontisian]

There's enought time in the day to explore other options.

[hoopsguy]

font, I'm just trying to figure out how we get Gozer to have a meaningful shot at showing up in the games, have streams crossing at end, etc.

If you have to have the wolves successfully convert two separate players, who then have to locate each other, to then allow Gozer to come into being ... well, I'm thinking one scan per night seems like it is pretty remote. We typically have seers who can't find one of three wolves (in 12-16 person game) in 4-5 days, so the chances of hitting any kind of Gozer endgame seem pretty remote if they only get a scan a night.

Just trying to bring up a topic that hasn't come to light in any posts up to this point. That I thought about when trying to figure out in my head how many starting wolves we might have, in a game featuring two potential conversions.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

font, I'm just trying to figure out how we get Gozer to have a meaningful shot at showing up in the games, have streams crossing at end, etc.

If you have to have the wolves successfully convert two separate players, who then have to locate each other, to then allow Gozer to come into being ... well, I'm thinking one scan per night seems like it is pretty remote. We typically have seers who can't find one of three wolves (in 12-16 person game) in 4-5 days, so the chances of hitting any kind of Gozer endgame seem pretty remote if they only get a scan a night.

Just trying to bring up a topic that hasn't come to light in any posts up to this point. That I thought about when trying to figure out in my head how many starting wolves we might have, in a game featuring two potential conversions.

I understand what you were saying. It's the word choice that bothers me.

[hoopsguy]

I do think having a consistent viewpoint of how to approach analysis is important. Trying to figure out what is a reasonable distribution of wolves/enemy roles is usually pretty important for me.

Doesn't mean that I'll be right with my thoughts, but that is also why I put it out there for some groupthink on it ... I want others (including the enemy, who has a better idea than I do) to chime in and help me refine my thinking. It also helps others evaluating my thoughts have more context when weighing my posts, for better or worse. Worse in the case of getting a vote right now, but hopefully better in the long term over a series of games. And better in the short term if I end up with a better model for evaluating this game.

[Danny]

unvote packerfanatic
vote coffee warlord

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Thanks. OK, so lets talk this through a bit:

1st point - Mau jumped off CW to vote DT as did Coffee.
So would this be working with the idea that both of these guys are wolves who had early votes for each other and then kind of an "oh crap" period when they emerged as two of the three leaders?

2nd point - They never voted for Lathum
I'm pretty sure you aren't suggesting all three of them are wolves ... right? Just want to get a sense for where your relative suspicions lie when analyzing these trends.

3rd point - Lathum played his vote on them all day before he jumped on Coffee.
Lathum starts on Autumn, moves to mauchow, then to CW, then back to mau. He swings over to DT in the last hour. So I'm not sure I follow this point, possibly losing you in the pronouns (who is "them"? mau? He didn't end on CW, but instead on DT)

1) Correct. We had the same thing happen in my first game when the wolves trying to get cute with their votes. Think it was D4. They did four hours before the vote giving them plausible denial of just voting on hunches instead of hiding votes on wolves early.

2) Not suggesting all 3 are wolves, correct.

3) Correct, I meant Lathum bouncing his votes from Mau/Cw/Mau over a few hours as "them" (I forget time stamps). Then he swung over to DT later I believe. I don't think he was in danger of changing his vote for self preservation but maybe he was.

That's why I thought all three of their actions yesterday seemed weird(combined). For all three of them to not be a wolf just doesn't sit well with me.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by fontisian

I understand what you were saying. It's the word choice that bothers me.

Well, I still don't have a universal right answer for how to approach that. If I always write from the perspective of "us" good guys that gets seen as manipulative. If I write in a neutral tone, including myself as a potential bad guy as others should be evaluating, that is wrong as well if someone is so inclined. Kind of falls into that "werewolf rulebook" stuff joked about earlier in the thread, where whatever you do must make you a wolf.

On this particular point, I guess I don't worry about it to much personally. But I get where you are coming from ... if you feel like someone is being dodgy, you should pursue the angle.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

For all three of them to not be a wolf just doesn't sit well with me.

and by "a" wolf I meant at least one of them being a wolf. Poorly worded.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

1) Correct. We had the same thing happen in my first game when the wolves trying to get cute with their votes. Think it was D4. They did four hours before the vote giving them plausible denial of just voting on hunches instead of hiding votes on wolves early.

2) Not suggesting all 3 are wolves, correct.

3) Correct, I meant Lathum bouncing his votes from Mau/Cw/Mau over a few hours as "them" (I forget time stamps). Then he swung over to DT later I believe. I don't think he was in danger of changing his vote for self preservation but maybe he was.

That's why I thought all three of their actions yesterday seemed weird(combined). For all three of them to not be a wolf just doesn't sit well with me.

So if you thought only one was a wolf - trying to stay away from "grand unified theories of wolves" for now - which one stands out and why? Or is the suspicion of yesterday only intact if there are 2+ wolves among the three?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

font, I'm just trying to figure out how we get Gozer to have a meaningful shot at showing up in the games, have streams crossing at end, etc.

If you have to have the wolves successfully convert two separate players, who then have to locate each other, to then allow Gozer to come into being ... well, I'm thinking one scan per night seems like it is pretty remote. We typically have seers who can't find one of three wolves (in 12-16 person game) in 4-5 days, so the chances of hitting any kind of Gozer endgame seem pretty remote if they only get a scan a night.

Just trying to bring up a topic that hasn't come to light in any posts up to this point. That I thought about when trying to figure out in my head how many starting wolves we might have, in a game featuring two potential conversions.

I think a Gozer endgame is probably endgame for us. Also I think that it's very possible the wolves simply have to convert those two wolves and then the next night Gozer appears or something. I know the rules make it sound like they have to "find" each other, so there may be more to it than that, but I would guess finding each other simply means both becoming wolves. There's a very good chance this never happens, which is good, but I don't think it's super remote.

[hoopsguy]

I think Gozer endgame is endgame for us if we don't have a couple of proton packs to cross streams with ... which makes it pretty important to safeguard those last remaining roled villagers somehow.

As far as their "find" each other logic ... would be cool if JAG clued us in on if both being converted was sufficient, or if there are extra steps. Not counting on it, but I guess consider this an official question on the matter.

Given the ghosts have a chance to convert two players, does it seem fair that they would have three starting members? If so, I would think they could not do both night kill and convert on same evening ... that would seem somewhat unbalanced. Definitely not expecting JAG to chime in on the train of thought in this paragraph, just trying to work it out for myself.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I see KatyLied viewing the thread so hopefully that means she will be playing and won't need to be replaced.

Heading out for a few hours. Will rejoin the conversation, and get a vote down, prior to the night deadline.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Given the ghosts have a chance to convert two players, does it seem fair that they would have three starting members? If so, I would think they could not do both night kill and convert on same evening ... that would seem somewhat unbalanced. Definitely not expecting JAG to chime in on the train of thought in this paragraph, just trying to work it out for myself.

Better question for you. You think the wolves can convert any regular villager, or there are specific roled villagers who can convert?

[PackerFanatic]

Okay, I think I will stick with my previous move...just probably didn't to make it so early before. But based on movements since then, I think this will work...until more movement happens.

VOTE CW

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Better question for you. You think the wolves can convert any regular villager, or there are specific roled villagers who can convert?

I'm guessing two specific ones, but would certainly be interested in hearing if someone else reads those rules differently.

[Coffee Warlord]

Votes for me are votes for Communism.

Keep it up, Stalin.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm guessing two specific ones, but would certainly be interested in hearing if someone else reads those rules differently.

Okay, we're on the same page then. I thought for a minute *you* were implying they had convert-anyone powers.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

As far as their "find" each other logic ... would be cool if JAG clued us in on if both being converted was sufficient, or if there are extra steps. Not counting on it, but I guess consider this an official question on the matter.

No comment.