NBA 2011/12 Regular Season Thread(Predictions)

[whomario]

I have begun watching more games recently with more time on my hands and caught a couple Laker games and i´ve got to say that Bryant is still quite a sight. Sure he´s obsessed and sometimes borderline delusional, but you can´t help but feel excitement seeing him go to work once he decides to score that ball.
And you know what, 22-14 is much better than i thought they would be.

[larrymcg421]

This.

Originally Posted by Cousy on Rondo

“I’m out of the loop, but boy, unless he’s a serial killer on the side I wouldn’t let this kid go,”

[Bigsmooth]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

This.

Cousy really said that? That is awesome.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Former is the key word. Turner hasn't panned out like the 76ers thought and he's seen his role actually diminish throughout the season. Verajao seems like a perfect fit for Collins and gives them a solid big man rotation for years to come. I think Turner still has potential to become something in this league, but is Philly going to allow him the time to figure that out?

Maybe I'm just high on Verajao. I know ESPN only covers 4 teams, but he had a really great year before the injury. He's a consistent double-double guy who doesn't need plays run for him.

I dont think Turners problem is needing "time to figure it out" as he has become a much better player this year. The problem is that Philly has a ton of depth so its hard to get Turner more than 20 minutes a night. Louis Williams would be starting on half the teams in the league. His NBA role is the role that Louis Williams is currently in.

I have been waiting 2 years for Meeks to get benched however since Iggy isnt a real great outside shooter it kind of forces them to have Meeks on the court to spread the defense. A lot of similar players on that team between Holiday, Williams, Iggy and Turner.

[Sweed]

I don't watch the league closely like I used to but what about a Pau for Rondo deal? Would help both teams, no? Not sure abut salaries etc or if other players would need to be added but makes more sense to me than running out and getting Howard when u have a weakness at pg and not center.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I don't watch the league closely like I used to but what about a Pau for Rondo deal? Would help both teams, no? Not sure abut salaries etc or if other players would need to be added but makes more sense to me than running out and getting Howard when u have a weakness at pg and not center.

don´t see Bryant/Bynum benefitting from a PG like Paul all that much, Bynum clogs the lane and Kobe doesn´t do catch and shoot. Not saying that´s definite, but on paper i don´t see the Lakers being a better team with that trade.
(that´s not to say anything about any Howard to LA trades, just judging this one)

[stevew]

Novak.

[larrymcg421]

Who wants a 26 yr old PG who puts up triple doubles and is a premier defender? You should definitely trade him, Danny.

[stevew]

Yeah, Rondo basically threw up a money shot on Ainge's face today.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Who wants a 26 yr old PG who puts up triple doubles and is a premier defender? You should definitely trade him, Danny.

Haha yeah

[stevew]

C'mon Knicks...you can't let someone shoot a 3 to tie there. Jesus. Foul, retards.

[larrymcg421]

The hell with a triple double, Rondo puts up a triple 15 and is only the 4th player in NBA history to do so.

Edited due to ABC Sports research fail. I checked the NBA Play index and found that in addition to Jason Kidd, Bird and Magic had also done it. Rondo is only the 2nd player to get a triple 17 after Magic.

[whomario]

wow, that was pretty amazing by Rondo, he´s such a fun player to watch when he has games like this. If he could shoot even a little bit he´d definitely be in the discussion for all time great PGs.

Kobe with 18 points in the first quarter, LA up 28-20

[molson]

Rondo has 17 career triple doubles and 13 of them are on national TV. I'm not sure what % of Celtics games are on national TV but that's what his critics in Boston say - he's great when he feels like but that's only some of the time. I don't watch enough Celtics to know how valid that is, but that's always what I hear about him.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

. If you just count regular season, then he has 10 triple doubles, with 6 coming on national TV, not an unorthodox split at all.

Umm ... wouldn't that mean that they were on national TV about half the time? I have a tough time believing that's the case (although it's entirely possible I'm simply underestimating how many games are nationally televised)

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Umm ... wouldn't that mean that they were on national TV about half the time? I have a tough time believing that's the case (although it's entirely possible I'm simply underestimating how many games are nationally televised)

That's a good point. I'm not sure how often they're on national TV, so the split is probably still unorthodox, just not as bad as his detractors are claiming. I wonder what splits other big players have for their national TV appearances.

[larrymcg421]

Actually I just checked the Celtics TV schedule, and I count 18 national TV appearances out of 36 games played so far.

[Groundhog]

Didn't check the thread over the weekend so I'm a little behind but re: Varejao, I've seen more Cavs game than any sane person should this season, and he'd been great until the injury. Incredibly overrated. Has to be the best "energy" guy in the league down low. He's 29 which is, typically, what you'd call a big guys "prime".

[whomario]

Kevin Love, damn Guess he´s out of that slump he had around the all star weekend, posting 42/10 against the Blazers and now 39/17 against the Clippers (while finally shooting a good percentage again), who the Wolves beat for the 3rd time this season. Playoffs still will be incredibly tough though ... Portland propably will win some games soon, Denver is getting people back and Houston has looked solid.

Derick Williams with 15/9 off the bench, Milicic filled in solidly for Pekovic who hopefully will be back soon.

Rubio seems to have hit a wall though, looks tired in recent games.

[MrBug708]

Rumors that Diaw might be bought out and the Lakers could look to grab him

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by whomario

Rubio seems to have hit a wall though, looks tired in recent games.

Yeah, his shot has been way off lately. Teams have started playing him more physical lately so hopefully he makes an adjustment soon. Hopefully this offseason he just sits in the gym and takes thousands of 18 foot jumpshots.

The good thing is that even when he shoots this awful he still has an impact on the game.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The good thing is that even when he shoots this awful he still has an impact on the game.

definitely, he´s also forced into taking some insane shots btw. Basically he has below average shooting ability but takes superstar-shots, what i mean is that he shoots very few spot up shots and tons of shots late in the shotclock.
If he took the same type of shots some role playing PG takes than he´d be in the low 40s easily.

One thing that he´ll allways have going for him is his defense which is really good imo. Struggles a little bit against the pick and roll when people look to score, but in isolation plays and as a team defender he is great allready.

Also, watching him do the little things is so rwarding, for example how he sets screens after kicking out the ball along the baseline or handing it off.

[Matthean]

NBA owners to discuss ads on jerseys at next meeting | ProBasketballTalk

[whomario]

Mavs stop the bleeding a bit with a win over the Knicks, Dirk with 28 points, Beaubois with 18.

Charlotte wins their 5th game of the season, beating the Magic. Bismack Biyombo is really fun to watch, you can really see the Ben Wallace comparisons. In his last 4 real games (had to leave 1 with injury in between and then missed 2) he averages 5,5 blocks and 11.5 RPG. 10/15/7 battling Dwight Howard tonight. Even showing glimpses of an offensive game, developing a nice turnaround jumper he´s been showing recently.
Charlotte sat Diaw, which likely means he´s gone one way or another. Diaw had previously played 384 straight games.

[Neuqua]

It's just fun being able to watch Derrick Rose play every night. He didn't shoot all that well but he had an otherwise good all around game, oh and this:

[whomario]

What did you think of Ilyasova ? The guy is beating right now. Still a bit streaky (but not as much anymore) but definitely figured out how to score and has been a rebounding machine and a pretty good defensive player. Next step will be getting to the FT line.

Timberwolves actually in the 8th spot now, when is the last time that happened ?
Beat the Blazers. Love with 29/16, no big deal.

Houston looses their 5th in a row.

Thunder beat the Suns and score 115 points while only 5 players scored at all, that has to be some sort of record

[Ramzavail]

I saw him in his coming out party in NJ where he exploded for something like 28/28 and he had it all working. Prior going to the game, I was talking it up with the guys I was going with about how you gotta see this guy Ilyasova - needless to say, they thought I was Nostradamus after the game.

Also another thing was in my hardcore basketball fantasy league with Gary Gorski, I just had traded for Danny Granger early in the month for my first and 2nd round pick and I got the guy to throw in Ilyasova b/c I had been watching his boxscores and he looked like a solid guy off Milw' bench. Well....Now, look at me. I'm Rick Kamla part deux.

[stevew]

Kyrie Irving hit a really nice college-Esque length of the floor driving game winning layup. Now if we could only get rid of Jamison, I could watch the team

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by stevew

Kyrie Irving hit a really nice college-Esque length of the floor driving game winning layup. Now if we could only get rid of Jamison, I could watch the team

lol... I may have said it in this thread already, but I actually don't mind Jamison this year. I mean, there is no way he should be our first or second option on offense, but his incredibly unconvential shots around the basket are sometimes pretty spectacular, although he misses too many gimmes. On one of the teams I'm playing in right now "Jamisoned" has become a verb for when you flick the ball at the hoop in an unconvential fashion, make or miss.

[korme]

Illyasova seems like a great addition to a playoff contender even if they can't resign him. I don't think the Bucks could afford to resign him without moving Mbah a Moute or Gooden, so they could sell him for a pick or something.

[korme]

BTW... Skip Bayless, that guy really hates being in the spotlight. Today he tweeted that he would take Irving over DRose the next 10 years moving forward because he is "a better passer, better shooting, more clutch". In short, I hate Skip Bayless.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by korme

BTW... Skip Bayless, that guy really hates being in the spotlight. Today he tweeted that he would take Irving over DRose the next 10 years moving forward because he is "a better passer, better shooting, more clutch". In short, I hate Skip Bayless.

He is clueless. Fuck him.

He also said Chris Johnson is a better running back than Adrian Peterson. The dude is a moron and good for nothing except to ignore.

[Neuqua]

Honestly I knew very little about Ilyasova until I watched last night's game. I really was impressed and think he is going to turn into a really solid player. I'd take him over Boozer, that's for sure.

As for Skip, First Take is hitting ratings milestones with each passing week. He knows exactly what he's doing when he goes against the Lebron fanatics and the Derrick Rose fanbase.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Josh Smith reportedly asks to be traded before the deadline. Atlanta rumored to be talking to Golden State. I love the SF Chronicle rumor mentioned in the comments btw, where Atlanta allegedly turned down Ellis for Smith but offered to give them JJ for Ellis instead, which GS then turned down.

Atlanta Hawks: Josh Smith still wants to be traded | Atlanta Hawks

[Groundhog]

Josh Smith is a guy I love having on my fantasy team but man, I would hate to have him actually play for a team I support. His boxscores suggest he does a lot more positive things for his team than watching him actually reveals IMO.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Josh Smith reportedly asks to be traded before the deadline. Atlanta rumored to be talking to Golden State. I love the SF Chronicle rumor mentioned in the comments btw, where Atlanta allegedly turned down Ellis for Smith but offered to give them JJ for Ellis instead, which GS then turned down.

Atlanta Hawks: Josh Smith still wants to be traded | Atlanta Hawks

No one will take JJ's contract. Smith is an interesting player. I love his game when he isn't shooting jumpers. If someone could control that aspect and get him motivated, he could be a bonafied All-Star. Hearing some rumors of the Lakers being interested in a deal with Pau Gasol.

How about Josh Smith and Kirk Hinrich for Pau Gasol? Gasol isn't fitting in with Mike Brown's style and Josh Smith is a solid all-around player to have at the 4 (and cheaper). Hinrich hasn't been good, but he's an upgrade over the crap the Lakers have at PG right now.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

How about Josh Smith and Kirk Hinrich for Pau Gasol? Gasol isn't fitting in with Mike Brown's style and Josh Smith is a solid all-around player to have at the 4 (and cheaper). Hinrich hasn't been good, but he's an upgrade over the crap the Lakers have at PG right now.

I have to question you when you say things like this. There is really very little evidence to support this claim. He is 10th in the NBA in Win Shares and his stats are virtually identical to last year. If anything Id say he fits in as good since his stats have basically stayed the same with Bynum and Kobe getting more touches than last year.

Also, Im not sure what that Smith for Gasol trade would accomplish for either side. It might be one of them trades that make both teams worse. Lakers are trying to put a team into place to win championships in Kobes final years. The Hawks seem like they want to overhaul the roster more than likely not with older high priced players. I dont really think the trade would fit the goals of either team.

The problem with Josh Smith is that he plays a position not suited for his skill set. He should be a small forward but he shoots so poorly that he ends up playing the post in which he isnt a natural fit for with his speed and quickness. If he could shoot he would be a dominate NBA player unfortunately it looks like the time has passed for anyone to think he will develop that part of his game. I think he actually does pretty well for himself being an undersized power forward. It takes a phenominal athlete to be able to be a borderline all star player while not being able to play the position that is more suited to your body type.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I have to question you when you say things like this. There is really very little evidence to support this claim. He is 10th in the NBA in Win Shares and his stats are virtually identical to last year. If anything Id say he fits in as good since his stats have basically stayed the same with Bynum and Kobe getting more touches than last year.

Also, Im not sure what that Smith for Gasol trade would accomplish for either side. It might be one of them trades that make both teams worse. Lakers are trying to put a team into place to win championships in Kobes final years. The Hawks seem like they want to overhaul the roster more than likely not with older high priced players. I dont really think the trade would fit the goals of either team.

The problem with Josh Smith is that he plays a position not suited for his skill set. He should be a small forward but he shoots so poorly that he ends up playing the post in which he isnt a natural fit for with his speed and quickness. If he could shoot he would be a dominate NBA player unfortunately it looks like the time has passed for anyone to think he will develop that part of his game. I think he actually does pretty well for himself being an undersized power forward. It takes a phenominal athlete to be able to be a borderline all star player while not being able to play the position that is more suited to your body type.

His numbers are the same but it is pretty obvious he is not fitting what the Lakers are doing this year. The Lakers have been much more of an isolation team then they were when they ran the Triangle. They have been a lot of times when the others players are sitting around waiting for Kobe or Bynum to beat their man one on one. As you mentioned, Kobe is shooting a lot more. This has happened in the past and Phil Jackson has called Kobe out for it. Mike Brown does not have the cache.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

His numbers are the same but it is pretty obvious he is not fitting what the Lakers are doing this year.

Please explain what is obvious about it?

Pau Gasol NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com

He is the same player that he has been. Because ESPN says something doesnt make it fact. His advanced stats look perfectly in order. His effective field goal percentage is down a bit but lately he has picked it up.

Gasol has never been a player that has demanded the ball. He has always been a very productive player that doesnt need the ball much because he is highly effective on his limited touches. His usage rate has been 21.6, 21.4 and 21.8% that past 3 years. He is still seeing the ball as much despite Kobe and Bynum's usage numbers going up.

You are correct in that they are running more iso's(14.2% to be exact) however that doesnt appear to be affecting Gasols assist rate as that has gone up from 15.1 percent to 15.8 percent.

Again, ESPN has mentioned this theory however I just see no evidence that proves it.

[stevew]

If Joe Johnson was playing better, I'd love to trade Jamison and Ramon Sessions for him. I think he would work well with Kyrie. And nobody will willingly play in Cleveland anyways. That 4th year on Johnson's deal is too much to bear, though(almost 25m)

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Please explain what is obvious about it?

Pau Gasol NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com

He is the same player that he has been. Because ESPN says something doesnt make it fact. His advanced stats look perfectly in order. His effective field goal percentage is down a bit but lately he has picked it up.

Gasol has never been a player that has demanded the ball. He has always been a very productive player that doesnt need the ball much because he is highly effective on his limited touches. His usage rate has been 21.6, 21.4 and 21.8% that past 3 years. He is still seeing the ball as much despite Kobe and Bynum's usage numbers going up.

You are correct in that they are running more iso's(14.2% to be exact) however that doesnt appear to be affecting Gasols assist rate as that has gone up from 15.1 percent to 15.8 percent.

Again, ESPN has mentioned this theory however I just see no evidence that proves it.

Are you trying to give advanced metrics a bad name? You are right. The numbers are the same. And yes, it is to his credit, that he does have the same numbers. What I am telling you what I am seeing on the court. Pau Gasol is not the same player in this offense as he was in the Triangle. I believe the Triangle offense takes better advantage of his skill set. This does not make him any less effective but it also does not make him any more effective either. But whether it is the new offense, girlfriend issues, or team "selfishness", he is not the same player.

[Chief Rum]

I find it interesting that the numbers are still so similar if he's not the same player in this offense. Can you pinpoint ways in which he is specifically different? Are there differences in quantitative measures you can point to to back up your perspective?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

What I am telling you what I am seeing on the court.

What is it that you are seeing on the court?

He is having a better defensive year this year over last year(players are scoring 99 points per 100 possessions against him this year vs 102 per 100 last year) if that is what you are talking about. Is that what you mean by different player?

[jbergey22]

Speaking of which. I just read a report that he was traded. No further details at this moment.

Longtime basketball writer Roland Lazenby reports that Pau Gasol has been traded, but Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports refutes the report.

Lazenby offered no details on where he is going or for whom Gasol has been traded for, but is reporting that more information will be given shortly. Wojnaroski has said that while Houston has been close in pulling off a deal, there is nothing imminent. Stay tuned.

[whomario]

Lakers play at Minny in 2 1/2 hours, so if there´s a trade that is agreed then we´ll know by then i guess.

I do sort of agree with MiamiFan in that i also got that impression when watching the Lakers, but it´s propably simply me having grown familiar to seeing him used a certain way the last couple years and now being used quite a bit differently or rather being put in different spots on the field.

I agree that the numbers don´t really back that impression up at all, another explanation might be that watching games you really feel like he should be used way more seeing how terrible the Laker players after Bryant/Gasol/Bynum are (and Odoms shots/touches basically went completely to Bryant and Bynum)

I also see not much reason why the Lakers would trade him, it´s not like there are tons of guys out there that are a) as good as him, b) as likely to be able to co-exist with Bryant, c) able to play the 4 and 5 (huge attribute considering the Lakers have zero depth at the 5)


speaking of trades, Bill Simmons has his annual trade value column up :

The 12th-annual ranking of the NBA's top 50 players, Part 1 - Grantland
The 12th-annual ranking of the NBA's top 50 players, Part 2 - Grantland

[heybrad]

Originally Posted by whomario

I also see not much reason why the Lakers would trade him, it´s not like there are tons of guys out there that are a) as good as him, b) as likely to be able to co-exist with Bryant, c) able to play the 4 and 5 (huge attribute considering the Lakers have zero depth at the 5)

Mainly because he's the only asset the Lakers have that could bring some depth at multiple positions and hopefully infuse some youth. Bynum could do that as well, but you're giving up youth to bring back youth so it's a bit of a wash. The Lakers have a corpse at PG (Fisher) and a mental case at SF (Artest). If they can fill 2 holes with dynamic young players, its worth looking at. The trade that's interested me the most is the rumor of Gasol for Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola and other minor pieces. That addresses a huge need for the Lakers while still having a serviceable player take Gasol's spot.

[stevew]

Gasol's contract becomes deadly when the new luxury tax rules kick in.

[whomario]

It´s not that i disagree, but as long as Kobe is around and playing well i don´t see how the Lakers can/should/will put much thought into rebuilding and salary cap issues (also, Kobe will make 30 million anyway and Bynum propably close to 20 in 2 years), so i´m not sure if that is really as much of a factor.

They would have gotten Paul in the Rockets/Hornets trade last summer, not added depth in exchange for Gasol.

Plus, to come close to replacing him talent-wise (even if it´s 2 solid players) they will have to take back salary long term. Lowry and Scola will also make a combined 16 mio in 2 years for example and i´m not sure if that would improve them much, especially since Lowry needs quite a bit of free rein to excel and playing next to Kobe and a low post guy doesn´t fit that description.

[whomario]

Damn, Peko finish that ... Rubio just had another one of those "no, he didn´t really do that, did he ???" passes, where he leads the break and then does a no-look bounce pass backwards in traffic that doesn´t target the 2nd or 3rd guy on the break but the trailing Pekovic who then has pretty much a clear path to the hoop despite 4 Lakers back Unfortunately Pekovic then blows the layup ... (got fouled though)
Actually i´m not sure you can describe it, try watch it on youtube later or league pass now

Love misses the game, rest of the Wolves with tons of energy so far and up 10, both Pekovic and Williams 10 points allready.

[larrymcg421]

Portland did not make the flight to Boston and have instead suited up random people off the street. At least I'm assuming that's what happened because Boston is up 60-23 with 2 minutes left in the 2nd.