10-02-2007, 04:18 PM | #451 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Path, I think you are missing one critical component of my train of thought that would help you with your list. My fellow wolves would probably be angry with me for giving you that info. But I really like the stuff you did put out here and an awful lot of it is spot on.
So, should I tell the wolves to kill you ASAP because the list is so good and a threat to them? Or that the list is off just enough, but would be treated as important if you showed up dead? |
10-02-2007, 04:19 PM | #452 | |
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Quote:
Or me..he didn't include me in his little list at the end... |
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10-02-2007, 04:21 PM | #453 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: here
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yeah, ollie, but he said you were "very possible"
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10-02-2007, 04:35 PM | #454 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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Quote:
I would believe you used option C, because I would think that would be the smart way to play. its called not putting your eggs in one basket. I almost waited a couple of days to use that power, knowing that i am not usually a casualty early but in the end decided that that is a power best used early. I do agree with what you have said about the witness power. I like it to be tied to following a chosen individual instead of getting a quick kill like that. |
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10-02-2007, 04:46 PM | #455 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Can someone tell me what Antmeister's style of play is usually like? I only ask because I've never played in a game with him before, and I know that he has played in other games before.
I remember a weird exchange between the two of them, where hoops asked Ant something, and Ant replied just by asking hoops some other question, and not really answering at all. |
10-02-2007, 04:48 PM | #456 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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My thoughts are that we're back to square one, taking out anything hoops said.
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10-02-2007, 04:50 PM | #457 |
Coordinator
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Location: Big Ten Country
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As of right now, my COT includes sal, AC, and ntn.
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10-02-2007, 04:53 PM | #458 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Why do you trust Sal and AC?
Why would you disregard everything I've said? I've had multiple posts out there that I wish I could take back - stuff is there to be used if you look with the right eye. |
10-02-2007, 04:54 PM | #459 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
C'mon, that's the best you've got? I don't know who he actually picked, so I'm not entirely tossing anyone......I'm just trying to come up with more likely vs less likely.
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10-02-2007, 04:57 PM | #460 | |
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Quote:
If the wolves don't kill me off, that implies that they don't think I'm anywhere close, so maybe it's better for them to just leave that alone. Or make some kind of comment about not ruling enough people out.
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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10-02-2007, 05:04 PM | #461 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2002
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Quote:
I guess my problem with the thought process is that Hoops would probably have the same process, and thus would be likely to choose one of the folks you list as least likely to be chosen. So if a rational approach suggests that Ant, AC, and Daddy are highly unlikely to be wolves, then a rational approach would be to choose at least one of them. It starts to make my head hurt when I think about it too hard. |
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10-02-2007, 05:06 PM | #462 |
Coordinator
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10-02-2007, 05:07 PM | #463 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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And as for Sal and AC, I still don't think AC makes his post knowing that PB was about to die. And I don't think sal makes his vote switch as a wolf. It's not very strong trust, but it's some trust.
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10-02-2007, 05:10 PM | #464 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
I feel fairly good about both of them right now also. But it is early.
__________________
We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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10-02-2007, 05:11 PM | #465 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Pass, it wouldn't be sporting for me to pull up the posts to prove my point. But I'll certainly talk in the post-game about it if people care by then. I expect that the game will have moved on enough by then that no one will give a damn what I had to say on Day 2, however.
Good luck with that trust thing, though. |
10-02-2007, 05:13 PM | #466 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: here
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My COT is nt, and that's it. Anything else is guessing.
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10-02-2007, 05:14 PM | #467 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Yeah, you can always do the "well, you know that I know that you know that you would do this so I would do that etc etc etc"........but I don't know that applies to any analysis on who he would pick. First off, anything we do is speculation. Secondly, hoops didn't know how he would get found out in the end, or that there would necessarily be speculation on that particular post. I do tend to believe the adage that wolves lie less in thread than most in order to stay as trusted as possible.
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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10-02-2007, 05:15 PM | #468 |
Coordinator
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So what approach would you take to find a wolf on day 3 that doesn't involve guessing of one sort or another?
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
10-02-2007, 05:20 PM | #469 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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When I show up as a villager, you will all have to backtrack big-time on the NTN trust.
Um ... I got nothing. |
10-02-2007, 05:22 PM | #470 |
Coordinator
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Location: Big Ten Country
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10-02-2007, 05:28 PM | #471 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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It would be awesome if the Duke showed up to take out someone else, just for the pure hilarity of it. I would rate that very high on the list of great werewolf moments if this were to transpire.
Heck, I even promise to release the name of another wolf if the Duke makes this happen. It would totally be worth it, even if it doesn't help us win the game. |
10-02-2007, 05:31 PM | #472 | |
Hall Of Famer
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Location: Mass.
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Quote:
Watching from the sidelines and not knowing what roles anyone has.. I agree with this. I would love to see that happen |
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10-02-2007, 05:34 PM | #473 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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lol @ hoops
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10-02-2007, 05:37 PM | #474 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: here
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Note to self: If I ever have a role that allows me to bag Hoops as a wolf, don't do the reveal until later in the day, so Hoops doesn't get 10 hours to mindfuck the other players.
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10-02-2007, 05:39 PM | #475 |
Pro Rookie
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10-02-2007, 05:40 PM | #476 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
You missed the game a couple back where he was scanned evil and damn near got someone else lynched. I'd much rather see him just try and mess with people's minds this way......
__________________
We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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10-02-2007, 05:40 PM | #477 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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RealDeal, everyone is too smart for me to mess with them. The only thing I'm succeeding in doing here is satisfying my own internal, desperate need for attention.
And running up my collection of posts that don't count, of course. |
10-02-2007, 05:44 PM | #478 |
Pro Starter
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Whose bright idea was it not to count the werewolf posts anyway?
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Come and see. |
10-02-2007, 05:45 PM | #479 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Seriously. Maybe I'll just forever be at 0.
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10-02-2007, 05:50 PM | #480 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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10-02-2007, 05:52 PM | #481 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
I've beat the seer scans three times that I recall: 1.) WW7 (X-Com) - outed as wolf by the turncoat, convinced group to lynch turncoat. Overturned by Duke. 2.) WW16 (Return of Wolves) - viewed by seer, convinced lynch of third party that night 3.) WW30 (Ghost Council Orzhova) - viewed by two people, convinced lynch of one of two who viewed me I've also had a couple of other games where I've survived for a sick amount of time due to fake reveals - the Star Wars game comes to mind. But for whatever reason, people generally just hang me nowadays when my name comes up as evil. It is kind of a bummer, as it really is a rush to escape death for a day under those circumstances. I need a new sign-in name ... maybe something like keb. |
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10-02-2007, 05:56 PM | #482 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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keb -- i love it
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10-02-2007, 05:58 PM | #483 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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OK, heading home for work in a couple of minutes. I'm sure I'll be on at some point between now and the deadline, but not sure how much.
If anyone has any last minute questions about my innocence, please feel free to ask them. I'm sure I'll have answers that will satisfy all. If anyone has any last minute questions about the wolves, please feel free to ask them. I'm sure I'll have answers that are cryptic at best, outright lies at worst. To the Duke out there - I'm pulling for you to make the right decision tonight. Getting a two-for-one is the best thing you could ever do for the village. |
10-02-2007, 06:07 PM | #484 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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I can't tell you how badly my feelings are hurt by this. |
10-02-2007, 06:08 PM | #485 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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__________________
We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
10-02-2007, 07:01 PM | #486 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I still maintain Hoops' list is mostly accurate if he was the alpha. If I'm alive tomorrow I'm going to refigure the math, figuring he got to pick 3, to go off of for my vote. That also assumes hoops really is the alpha.
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10-02-2007, 07:01 PM | #487 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Hmmm, plenty of posts by hoops, I'll see if I can sign on after I get home and decipher them. Maybe he lists his cronies in there, of maybe he's enjoying f'ing with us.
I tried reading a little during the meeting (strategic seat selection is important for these things) but "had the floor" way too much to look at more than a post or two. I don't get a wolf vibe from Pass this time, at least so far... for AC, I'm still a little curious about his vote yesterday.... olliegirl I can't read yet, but want to see what she posts a little more. she was so quiet in the last game that I wrongly suspected her and it cost us the game.... jeheinz, I don't even know who you are, no offense, so I have no read at all on you... I'll have to see if I can make the time to come up with a list of actions from yesterday, there must be something fishy (or wolfy) in there other than hoops. So AC, did you pick hoops or did he pick you? ...have to stir the pot a little, the Pass "walf baiting" from my first game was fun, and proved quite accurate. |
10-02-2007, 07:43 PM | #488 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
BK, lets work through the math right now while I'm around to help. I listed seven people, including myself on the list. Cronin was also on the list. You maintain that you are a villager. That leaves four names for you to check. The remaining people - there were ten and that included PurdueBrad. So there are nine people left who I did not list. I'll probably take someone with me when I die, which will skew the numbers a little bit. But I don't want to tip my hand on who it might be - hopefully they are here for the final write-up so I can get immediate gratification upon seeing them read the results. So, what ratios are you assuming I go with for the picks? How many wolves, how many in each group? I want to be helpful if I can |
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10-02-2007, 07:48 PM | #489 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Just got home, sad that I signed on here to look over posts right away before even eating... just sad...
Maybe I am again reading too much into things but it seems that hoops read into PB's comments about being the seer. Or he just claims that he did. If he did and he moved his vote we shoudl start to look at other late votes, and vote movement on day one. Three people remained on the PB vote, one is now a lynched villager whom I wrongly helped lynch. Pass and Ant are the remaining two. Another wolf may have remained on the PB vote as we would not think that two wolves would both vote for the seer incase of reveal. I am not getting a wolf vibe from Pass, but it's early. Does this mean that Ant could be one of hoops cronies? I need to get some food in my system and will try to post a summary of day one, at least it's not something that is greatly needed for tonioght as we seem to have a hairy one in our sights (hopefully he'd not one that will take one of us out with him ala PB in my first one). |
10-02-2007, 07:57 PM | #490 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Eagle, I saw it at the time. I communicated it with my fellow wolves. The question you should ask yourself is just how much manipulation of the vote was needed?
I'll be very honest with you - I would have been just fine with Arlington Colt moving the vote to PurdueBrad (seer) instead of Cronin (non-seer) last night. Does that clear Arlington in your mind? How about the fact that I threw out suspicion on Arlington this morning, knowing that I might be exposed as a result of the night kill? Who have I not posted about in the last two days? Who have I tried to clear in my posts? These are all questions worth exploring, and all stuff that I'm trying to obscure with my avalanche of posts down the stretch. |
10-02-2007, 08:02 PM | #491 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I have to decide the probability of you picking another wolf from your list. I also want to see all the deaths to see how that shakes out.
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10-02-2007, 08:13 PM | #492 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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i'm ignoring everything from hoops after the post where he said he was a wolf. It's all a giant mindfuck, no matter how you slice it. Less to be learned from everything after then from looking at the stuff before that and running that all through 2nd and 3rd level analysis.
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10-02-2007, 08:20 PM | #493 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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I feel so completely overwhelmed by the mastery of BS that is hoopsguy.
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10-02-2007, 08:21 PM | #494 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
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10-02-2007, 08:21 PM | #495 |
Coordinator
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10-02-2007, 08:23 PM | #496 |
General Manager
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10-02-2007, 08:24 PM | #497 |
Hall Of Famer
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10-02-2007, 08:46 PM | #498 |
Coordinator
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10-02-2007, 08:52 PM | #499 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
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sure. I'd like to be thought of as a good choice to be a wolf.
I don't know if you're driving at me as a wolf BK, but I'm not. |
10-02-2007, 09:02 PM | #500 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
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Don't know if I am or not either. Your exclusion is the only one that really raised eyebrows when it was first posted (though there was a little talk about Pass's inclusion) and I'm thinking about its significance.
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