The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[GrantDawg]

Dean Phillips, a Democratic congressman from Minnesota, is announcing Friday he is entering the primaries against Biden. He resigned his leadership post a couple of weeks ago saying he was angry the party wasn't putting a candidate up against Biden, and I guess it should come as no surprise that he meant that candidate to be himself.


Btw: His slogan is going to be "Make America Affordable Again!". I don't think aping the Trump slogan is going to win you over to Democrats, but I will say that I think a "It's the grocery store, stupid" focus is pretty solid.

[RainMaker]

Pritzker should have run but I'm guessing he's going to go in 2028.

[GrantDawg]

Rainmaker, I think anybody that really wants to be President in the future has no interest in pissing off the party now by challenging a sitting President. I'm not saying it wouldn't be nice to have a true alternative, but no one is really has a shot to take out an incumbent.

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[Edward64]

Wed, Nov 8 for Debate #3.

Pence & Scott have not made the cut-off yet.

So far, five candidates have hit the Republican National Committee’s increasingly stringent requirements to make it onto the debate stage. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have all qualified, as has the current frontrunner, former President Donald Trump — who is set to again skip the debate in favor of his own rally in nearby Hialeah, Fla.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, has met the polling requirements but still needs to hit the 70,000-donor mark. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) has yet to hit either threshold, according to POLITCO’s analysis, though his campaign has claimed he has met the polling requirements.

[JPhillips]

Trump is leading by 40-50 points. Cancel the debates.

[GrantDawg]

Mike Pence has suspended his Presidential campaign. Didn't even make it to the first vote.

[Ksyrup]

He should be forced to carry his campaign to term.

[bronconick]

Mother is heartbroken.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

He should be forced to carry his campaign to term.

You win this thread for today, lol

[Thomkal]

I guess thoughts and prayers didn't work for Pence either.

[Atocep]

I still have no idea what kind of campaign Pence was trying to run and how he thought whatever he was doing could win.

His only chance, and it was a remote one, was to come out swinging and tell people how he had a first hand view of how awful of a leader Trump was. Spill the tea, try to convince enough voters that he's a godless charlatan that lacks morals. Nothing else was going to work.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I still have no idea what kind of campaign Pence was trying to run and how he thought whatever he was doing could win.

His only chance, and it was a remote one, was to come out swinging and tell people how he had a first hand view of how awful of a leader Trump was. Spill the tea, try to convince enough voters that he's a godless charlatan that lacks morals. Nothing else was going to work.

Yeah embrace Christian nationalism, tell everyone that Trump never went to church but played golf instead. Make himself the leader Christians wanted to follow, but instead we got blah Pence. I wonder when/if Trump goes to jail, gets 14th Amendment from running again, he'll restart his campaign.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Yeah embrace Christian nationalism, tell everyone that Trump never went to church but played golf instead. Make himself the leader Christians wanted to follow, but instead we got blah Pence. I wonder when/if Trump goes to jail, gets 14th Amendment from running again, he'll restart his campaign.

What's so confusing about how these candidates are handling Trump is that at least one of them may end up on a debate stage with him. What's their plan then? Do they think Trump is going to say nice things about them and tip toe around issues?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Atocep

What's so confusing about how these candidates are handling Trump is that at least one of them may end up on a debate stage with him. What's their plan then? Do they think Trump is going to say nice things about them and tip toe around issues?

They all will suspend their campaigns if Trump ever goes to a debate, because then they will all have to tell everyone how horrible he would be if he got back to the Oval Office, Better to just kiss the ring and move on.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Yeah embrace Christian nationalism, tell everyone that Trump never went to church but played golf instead. Make himself the leader Christians wanted to follow, but instead we got blah Pence. I wonder when/if Trump goes to jail, gets 14th Amendment from running again, he'll restart his campaign.

The thing with Christian nationalists is they don't actually care about the Christian part that much. The fact that Trump and all his vices got the support of evangelicals tells you all you need to know.

Pence is a dumb guy who probably thought some straight talk would turn people around. But I think most of the other candidates are just trying to get their name out there for a 2028 run (Haley, Vivek) or angling for the VP spot (Scott). DeSantis was the only one who had a reasonable shot but he ran maybe the worst campaign in history.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

He should be forced to carry his campaign to term.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I guess thoughts and prayers didn't work for Pence either.

Outstanding, gentlemen!

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Pence is a dumb guy who probably thought some straight talk would turn people around.

This is my take, as well. And, to be fair, this got him pretty far, so why not try and keep it up?

DeSantis was the only one who had a reasonable shot but he ran maybe the worst campaign in history.

Rudy Giuliani from 2008 would like a word.

[Brian Swartz]

I think DeSantis was worse. And that's saying something.

[GrantDawg]

Jeb!

[flere-imsaho]

There are definitely a bunch of good candidates. Clinton in 08 & 16 also needs to be in the running, although mostly on hubris.

[Ksyrup]

He's relishing this.

“Your anger against the truth is reprehensible.”

Chris Christie lashed out at a MAGA crowd at Florida’s GOP Freedom Summit today. pic.twitter.com/zYjNlp8LHb

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) November 4, 2023

[Edward64]

TBH I'm not sure why RFK is getting a 22% support. It probably won't last but it's an interesting situation.

Access to this page has been denied

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears to pull more support from former President Trump than President Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a new poll.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump by 1 point — 47 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error — in a head-to-head matchup. But with Kennedy in a three-way race, Biden is ahead with 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent and Kennedy’s 22 percent.

[GrantDawg]

It's the grocery store, stupid.

This morning’s NYT/Siena poll has Trump ahead of Biden in five key swing states, finds the economy to be a massive driver of discontent with Biden. https://t.co/PzKiF3AaIo pic.twitter.com/6SZCOSFU2Y

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) November 5, 2023

[GrantDawg]

Trump is going to win the White House because this old m-fer didn't know when to step aside:

On NYT poll showing Biden down big

- "it's just one poll"
- "Dem panic is good for turnout"
- "young/non-white voters will mean-revert in '24"

Fine, maybe. But the core dynamic here is Biden's approval is stuck, at 1,018 days, below *every* post-war POTUS not named Jimmy Carter pic.twitter.com/fH7wtyW0XF

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) November 5, 2023

[Ksyrup]

Now:

"I've proven I can beat Trump."

November 8th-ish:

"Damn, I thought for sure I'd win again."

At least we'll now have a replacement for Thanks, Obama!

[jcard]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Dean Phillips, a Democratic congressman from Minnesota, is announcing Friday he is entering the primaries against Biden. He resigned his leadership post a couple of weeks ago saying he was angry the party wasn't putting a candidate up against Biden, and I guess it should come as no surprise that he meant that candidate to be himself.


Btw: His slogan is going to be "Make America Affordable Again!". I don't think aping the Trump slogan is going to win you over to Democrats, but I will say that I think a "It's the grocery store, stupid" focus is pretty solid.

MA’AM?

[RainMaker]

He's cooked.

The new NYT poll is bad. There is no sugarcoating it. But instead of panicking or naively un-skewing the poll, we should start doing the work of rebuilding the anti-MAGA majority. Here's one place to start: pic.twitter.com/xpy5LasYJt

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) November 5, 2023

[RainMaker]

This is insane. 13 point gap between Biden and generic Dem.

A generic, unnamed Democrat fares 13 points better than Biden against Trump in swing states, per new NYT poll.
Kamala Harris does better than Biden too.
My quick write up of the pollhttps://t.co/cWUe6G38Jy pic.twitter.com/DFHkbQcPUi

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) November 5, 2023

[GrantDawg]

That's not a surprised though. "No set candidate" always fair better than an actual human. Voters project their own values to "no set candidate", and that magic candidate has no negative traits that any human is going to have.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

That's not a surprised though. "No set candidate" always fair better than an actual human. Voters project their own values to "no set candidate", and that magic candidate has no negative traits that any human is going to have.

Y'aint wrong.

It's similar to how the broad national "generic R vs generic D" poll stuff has very little bearing on actual outcomes ... because those two don't run against each other and we don't vote on a single precinct basis.

[GrantDawg]

I have to admit that the guy just seems so awkward at being a human I'm almost feeling sorry for him.

Looks like a kidnapping. pic.twitter.com/YfJHOpQOTD

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) November 8, 2023

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Trump is going to win the White House because this old m-fer didn't know when to step aside:

He's basically LBJ in 67 at this point.

[Edward64]

And then there was 4 + 1

Tim Scott gone.

[Ghost Econ]

So his "girlfriend" will only be kept around as long as he has a VP shot, right?

[Brian Swartz]

The election is a year away. There's bad news for Biden to be sure, but it's far from over.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

And then there was 4 + 1

Tim Scott gone.

When Tim Scott's girlfriend was asked for comment, she said "He told you I was his WHAT?"

[Edward64]

Can't a guy catch a break with all you critics.

A campaign official would only confirm that the woman on stage was indeed Scott’s girlfriend and her name is “Mindy.” Online sleuthing points to the person as being Mindy Noce, a Charleston-area interior designer and mother of three.

After the debate, Scott, a 58-year old bachelor, confirmed that he had brought his girlfriend to the event, telling reporters that the two have been dating “about a year.”

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Can't a guy catch a break with all you critics.

The rest of the article:

You can see Mindy's next theatrical performance when she plays "Miss Adeliade" in the Charleston City Players rendition of "Guys and Dolls".

[Ksyrup]

Started dating 5-6 months before he announced his candidacy. Seems to be about the right timeline in preparation for such things...

[Edward64]

Haley doing well in New Hampshire.

CNN Poll: Trump holds significant lead in New Hampshire GOP primary, while Haley moves into second place | CNN Politics

Former President Donald Trump maintains a significant lead among likely voters in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary, but former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has moved ahead of Trump’s other rivals and holds second place, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

I'm calling it ... Ramaswamy is done.

Haley’s support has climbed 8 percentage points from the last CNN/UNH poll in September, with Ramaswamy dipping 5 points and support for Trump, Christie and DeSantis remaining relatively steady.

Looking forward to mid-January

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan announced Wednesday that the state’s first-in-the-nation primary would be held on January 23, about a week after Iowa’s caucuses kick off the GOP nomination contest.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Haley doing well in New Hampshire.

CNN Poll: Trump holds significant lead in New Hampshire GOP primary, while Haley moves into second place | CNN Politics

I'm calling it ... Ramaswamy is done.


Looking forward to mid-January

Vivek would get a boost in a non-Trump primary because a decent chunk of the MAGA people love him. Apparently toxic masculinity is the only box they really care is checked.

I don't think Trump's hold on the GOP is as strong as it seems. It's partly smoke and mirrors. I'd go as far to say the majority of the party would rather he not run or would prefer a better candidate. They just can't come to a consensus on who that is so they're just going with Trump because they know what they're getting.

[GrantDawg]

It sounds like Tim Scott's money people are falling in with Haley. She seems to be where the non-Trumpers are starting to gather. She has no chance, but for her to have one most if the rest of group needs to drop. I just don't see DeSantis doing her that favor.

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[flere-imsaho]

I dunno, the facts seem to indicate that Trump's hold over the GOP is not only pretty strong, but it's pretty reliant on him, as DeSantis' and Ramaswamy's attempts to infiltrate using his schtick look to have failed.

Probably a third of state filing deadlines (for primaries) have already passed, and most of the rest will pass by the end of December, so this is group (barring drop-outs) who head into the primaries.

I'm with GD: looks to be shaping up to be a 2-horse race with Trump and Haley, neatly encapsulating the lines drawn in the to-date super one-sided GOP civil war. However, with the kind of polling leads Trump has, and most of the primaries being winner-takes-all/winner-takes-most, I could functionally see this being over by March.

[Ghost Econ]

Are you saying the charade is over by March or that it actually is over mathematically by March? There is literally no chance it's anyone other than Trump unless he (god willing) drops dead and even then he'd probably still be the nominee.

[flere-imsaho]

Probably charade, as I'm not sure if one can get a majority of delegates by March, but presume he'll have basically an insurmountable delegate lead by then.

[flere-imsaho]

Gives him plenty of time to have people come and kiss the ring if they want the VP slot. That'll be the real show.

[RainMaker]

I wonder if this becomes a way to attack Biden or maybe Trump come a general election. Surprised to see them calling it out.

BREAKING: @RonDeSantis and @NikkiHaley join @VivekGRamaswamy in calling out Azerbaijan's ethnic-cleansing of Christian Armenians - during remarks at today's @theFAMiLYLEADER Thanksgiving candidate forum in Iowa.

Thank you @120000Reasons & @bobvanderplaats.#120000Reasons.

— ANCA (@ANCA_DC) November 17, 2023

[Edward64]

Nice win for Haley.

Influential Koch network backs Nikki Haley in GOP presidential primary | CNN Politics

The influential network associated with billionaire Charles Koch will throw its money and influence behind former South Caroline Gov. Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary, the group announced Tuesday.

The decision could dramatically reshape the Republican field – roughly seven weeks before the Iowa caucuses – as Americans for Prosperity Action deploys its vast resources and standing army of conservative activists on behalf of the former South Carolina governor.

The endorsement marks the latest sign that powerful Republican donors are coalescing behind the candidacy of the former US ambassador to the United Nations. She has seen prominent figures join her campaign in recent weeks, particularly after South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott exited the race.

[Ghost Econ]

Trump showing up at the Clemson-Carolina game shows he's at least hedging. Haley pretty much needs every non-trump candidate to drop out in the next week or 2 to even get a minute chance. If there's anyone siphoning her votes in the first primary or two, she won't get the chance to hang in for the longer primary season.

As someone who lives in Haley's state, she's annoying but your average politician. She's at least shown the ability to be swayed by public opinion to do the bare minimum of a right thing (see Confederate flag). I don't think she'd be a good president, but the country would at least slow it's collapse into degeneracy as opposed to Trump.

[albionmoonlight]

Trump will soon attack Haley. How she (and others) respond will be critical.

[Swaggs]

She will be well positioned if Trump drops out or is not available, but it is still so early. We've had similar pushes at 10-15 months out before from Rudy Giulliani, Mike Huckabee, Hermain Cain, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum (I'm sure I'm forgetting some others) in recent years. I guess the best hope for the non-Trump candidates is to have enough money to survive through the primaries and hope he drops out. I can't even imagine what would happen if he wins the primaries and then becomes unable to run and who they might come to a consensus on if they choose at the convention.