WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[saldana]

alrighty then...i say we have an unobstructed run on whoever says they wont be around tomorrow too!

[J23]

Sweet. I guess he did have a role Autumn!

[Abe Sargent]

Because of your knowledge of the dark arts, you immediately recognize him. This was his role:


The Unhallowed – You are a former minister who has fallen and become a servant of the red death. You appear to be a minister in every normal way, and if followed at night by the Detective, he will see you studying the Bible and going to church. You may take kill or corrupt actions as your group sees fit.

[bhlloy]

well, that's a pretty sweet result

[saldana]

dola, am i missing it somewhere, or is there not a post describing the servant roles?

[Commo_Soldier]

Now do we think another wolf came to his support late.

[dzilla77]

Well, we got a servant, but that doesn't bode well for me.

[CrimsonFox]

AWESOME okay Danny spill it! I sense you knew something but wasn't sure, yet you pushesd for it TWICE. How did you KNOW that?

[mauchow]

I almost wanted to switch back to j23 because feeling guilty, but, hell yeah.

[Danny]

I'd like to say I an that good, but that was at least 90 percent luck, and maybe 100 percent. Either way, woot!

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Somebody can come out and say they had the best gut call ever or something, but it seems to me we just got very lucky. I was pushing not to lynch him, so I know I'll get the squinty eye for that, but I stand by the idea that it's not smart to lynch people who can't reveal.

That is part of the reason I thought he was a wolf. Try to get a bandwagon going on a villager to ensure a wolf survives and it is convenient for a wolf, in my eyes, to disappear as I stated an important villager should find a way to check at least to ensure they aren't killed holding key info.

[CrimsonFox]

Okay because it was your repeated pushes and the fact that J23 came back and started talking that made me switch for sure.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'd like to say I an that good, but that was at least 90 percent luck, and maybe 100 percent. Either way, woot!

What did you see tha tmade you suspect though? I can't imagine he posted enough to leave us much evidence, but it would be sweet if he did.

Clearly he was part of a gropu then. I suspect some may be lone wolves, but we can expect his mate(s) at least knew he was going down.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

AWESOME okay Danny spill it! I sense you knew something but wasn't sure, yet you pushesd for it TWICE. How did you KNOW that?

Being somewhat new to this, are there any actions that you can do during that day that would give someone to know this, other than them fake revealing?

[mckerney]

Nice.

[Autumn]

thomkal votes dubb 83
dzilla votes ntn 84
ntn votes mauboy 88
narc votes mrbug 105
autumn votes J23 116
EF votes danny 117
jackal votes danny 123
bhlloy votes dubb 125
commo votes bhlloy 127
hoops votes mauboy 129
sndvls votes jackal 141
lathum votes danny 142
narc unvotes mrbug 154
narc votes jackal 154
mauboy votes lathum 164
narc unvotes jackal 167
narc votes lathum 167
dubb votes lathum 170
saldana votes dubb 171
saldana unvotes dubb 173
zinto votes J23 178
jackal unvotes danny 199
jackal votes bhlloy 199
J23 votes bhlloy 212
Sndvls unvotes Jackal 213
mckerney votes bhlloy 222
Sndvls votes J23 225
CF votes mauboy 233
grammaticus votes ntn 236
saldana votes J23 242
mrbug votes CF 244
ntn unvotes mauboy 248
ntn votes bhlloy 248
dubb unvotes lathum 249
dubb votes bhlloy 249
mauboy unvotes lathum 250
mauboy votes dubb 250
chief rum votes mauboy 254
((bhlloy reveals as keeper)) 275
bhlloy unvotes dubb 275
bhlloy votes mauboy 275
jackal unvotes bhlloy 281
jackal votes mauboy 283
ef unvotes danny 287
ef votes mauboy 287
jackal unvotes mauboy 296
jackal votes J23 296
danny votes ntn 297
CF unvotes mauboy 306
CF votes J23 306
Lahtum unvotes danny 310
lathum votes J23 310
commo unvotes bhlloy 318
mckerney unvotes bhlloy 329
mckerney votes mauboy 329
commo votes ntn 334
J23 unvotes bhalloy 352
J23 votes mauboy 354
bhlloy unvotes mauboy 357
bhlloy votes ntn 357
mauboy unvotes dubb 361
mauboy votes ntn 361
j23 unvotes mauboy 364
j23 votes ntn 364
dzilla unvotes ntn 377
dubb unvotes bhlloy 386
RA votes ntn 390
CF unvotes J23 393
CF votes ntn 393
dubb votes J23 400
autumn unvotes J23
autumn votes ntn

[bhlloy]

dzilla's vote on J23 looks very very bad, knowing that there was all that time to untie it. That really smells like a wolf putting a wolf forward and then panicking and realizing he's put his teammate in danger and trying to justify moving his vote off. I've fallen victim to that before and I've seen it happen a few more times as well.

[CrimsonFox]

Well I think Danny is definitely villager now.
I would HOPE I am clear now too for that. Autumn I think. And Raiders.

There MIGHT be a wolf on ntn down there hoping for some later trust and now kicking himself.

[Autumn]

Given how routinely wolves lay a wolf-wolf vote early in games nowadays, I don't think this says anything for Mauboy. It would look good for bhlloy if we didn't already know about him ;-)

[bhlloy]

sorry, I meant dzilla's vote off ntn, although knowing he didn't actually put the vote on anybody else after that is also pretty bad looking.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Being somewhat new to this, are there any actions that you can do during that day that would give someone to know this, other than them fake revealing?

NOt really. Scans like that are typically NOT day actions or anytime actions. Usually it's finding out something after lynch deadline and finding comething out after night deadline. Almost NEVER just arbitrarily during the middle of the day. BUt this is a game with lots of items and extra rules, so there is no telling what is in there.

[Danny]

I don't think anyone is ever clear. I think it's clear I was a villager today, but i or you could just as easily be a wolf tomorrow

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

dzilla's vote on J23 looks very very bad, knowing that there was all that time to untie it. That really smells like a wolf putting a wolf forward and then panicking and realizing he's put his teammate in danger and trying to justify moving his vote off. I've fallen victim to that before and I've seen it happen a few more times as well.

Just to be clear I unvoted ntn, but did not vote J23. I did not vote anybody.

And yes, while it does make me look bad, I am emphatically not a wolf. If I was, I would have voted J23 to make it much more difficult to lynch ntn.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by dzilla77

Just to be clear I unvoted ntn, but did not vote J23. I did not vote anybody.

And yes, while it does make me look bad, I am emphatically not a wolf. If I was, I would have voted J23 to make it much more difficult to lynch ntn.

Unless J23 is a wolf too ;-)

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Danny

I don't think anyone is ever clear. I think it's clear I was a villager today, but i or you could just as easily be a wolf tomorrow

This, especially when it seems we may be having one, possibly more worst case, switching over a night. That said who ever can convert people back should be focusing on the villagers today in the future.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by dzilla77

I put the first vote on him but had no real reason to (which I stated when I placed the vote).

Not sure why the rest of the run started.

This just looks so terrible, given the context. You have to at least see that, no?

Sal and Dubb are the other two doing some subtle hinting/asking why we are putting ntn forward as a candidate late on when there were still enough votes to switch to J23. If I'm a wolf, that's exactly how I'm playing it.

I think our list of candidates tomorrow has to start there. I'm also somewhat interested in grammaticus who potentially put a trust vote on ntn when he was in very little danger and then didn't check in for the rest of the day.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

NOt really. Scans like that are typically NOT day actions or anytime actions. Usually it's finding out something after lynch deadline and finding comething out after night deadline. Almost NEVER just arbitrarily during the middle of the day. BUt this is a game with lots of items and extra rules, so there is no telling what is in there.

Does using my brilliant mind count?

[dubb93]

Bholly, if I was a wolf I would have nailed NtN to the cross. I expect the surviving wolf/wolves did exactly that. No chance I miss that opportunity to join the COT. If I'm a wolf then I am playing the Danny role today.

[Grammaticus]

I've been here most of the evening.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Given how routinely wolves lay a wolf-wolf vote early in games nowadays, I don't think this says anything for Mauboy. It would look good for bhlloy if we didn't already know about him ;-)

I swear, every single time I put a somewhat late vote on a wolf it always ends up "not saying anything about me.." to some people.

I agree to a point - but my vote was mostly self defense - If I voted for j23 I would have possibly created a scenario in which people continue to vote for me and make it me vs J23. I somewhat helped manipulate the vote so that ntn's name stayed out there a bit longer, which in the end, did help the vote.

[Commo_Soldier]

Some interesting posts before the deadline.



After moving off of Bhlloy

Originally Posted by dubb93

Vote J23

NtN wolf or not should be able to play. We kill the poor guy off early every time.

Seems like he was really pushing us away, the question is does a wolf make it so obvious?

Originally Posted by saldana

can anyone give me any kind of explanation about where NTN came from as a candidate...this has been a rather bizarre run

Originally Posted by saldana

so people felt good about mau, and people felt good about bholloy...bholloy revealed, so instead of going to mau, a whole boatload of people pulled NTN out of no where...i'll be back in a bit...need to go look up the definintion of "bandwagon"...i know i will be looking at the people that started that run tomorrow

Originally Posted by saldana

so why not mau

Originally Posted by saldana

really not liking a run on a guy that said he wouldnt be back before deadline...this just feels very wrong...i was already thinking that the ratio in this game would be different than others because of the chance that we can all resist the night kill...the fact that a run got put together that quickly really doesnt sit well with me

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

This, especially when it seems we may be having one, possibly more worst case, switching over a night. That said who ever can convert people back should be focusing on the villagers today in the future.

excellent points.
Tomorrow I think I'd rather lay off the ntn voters and concentrate on the rest. This is important info to keep track of for sure. Love the converting people back idea. Forgot we had one of those. (that too lazy to read the rules thing again)

[dubb93]

But all that being the case if it is going to be me-sal tomorrow then the line to vote him starts right behind me.

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

This just looks so terrible, given the context. You have to at least see that, no?

Sal and Dubb are the other two doing some subtle hinting/asking why we are putting ntn forward as a candidate late on when there were still enough votes to switch to J23. If I'm a wolf, that's exactly how I'm playing it.

I think our list of candidates tomorrow has to start there. I'm also somewhat interested in grammaticus who potentially put a trust vote on ntn when he was in very little danger and then didn't check in for the rest of the day.

I do see it and admitted it as such. As lucky as it was to get ntn, it was equally as unlucky for me to vote him and then switch off.

Again, you can lynch me, but you will be getting a villager.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I swear, every single time I put a somewhat late vote on a wolf it always ends up "not saying anything about me.." to some people.

I agree to a point - but my vote was mostly self defense - If I voted for j23 I would have possibly created a scenario in which people continue to vote for me and make it me vs J23. I somewhat helped manipulate the vote so that ntn's name stayed out there a bit longer, which in the end, did help the vote.

Sorry, I was referring to NTN's vote on you early in the day.

[dubb93]

Keep in mind the wolves knew NtN was a wolf and had the opportunity to manipulate that and get a good vote in. I think giving them a pass tomorrow is a poor play since I not only suspect there were wolves in that run but I also suspect the conversion, if there is one, will be coming from that pool.

[mauchow]

oic, I should have read more closely.

[hoopsguy]

Sure looks to me like we got the cunning, so I would expect that the late votes putting him in harms way are pretty good indicators of Lightbringers.

[Thomkal]

wow that was quite lucky for us-given that the odds were so much against us getting a Servant on Day 1. I think they definitely will try to convert a replacement tonight, probably from the ntndeacon voters, so we should keep that in mind going forward.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Keep in mind the wolves knew NtN was a wolf and had the opportunity to manipulate that and get a good vote in. I think giving them a pass tomorrow is a poor play since I not only suspect there were wolves in that run but I also suspect the conversion, if there is one, will be coming from that pool.

I'm not so sure about this though. The run started kind of late and happened extremely quick. If anyone switched to NTN and was a wolf the only person I'd suspect is Autumn.

[Grammaticus]

Agree, dzilla and autumn are the most suspicious based on vote activity. Of course there are other things to look at too.

[J23]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Bholly, if I was a wolf I would have nailed NtN to the cross. I expect the surviving wolf/wolves did exactly that. No chance I miss that opportunity to join the COT. If I'm a wolf then I am playing the Danny role today.

I'm not sure you play the Danny role given that the village knows there's a high chance of conversion. Especially putting your cunning out there.

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Keep in mind the wolves knew NtN was a wolf and had the opportunity to manipulate that and get a good vote in. I think giving them a pass tomorrow is a poor play since I not only suspect there were wolves in that run but I also suspect the conversion, if there is one, will be coming from that pool.

Not all wolves may have been able to communicate with each other or possibly even know of the others existence.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by J23

I'm not sure you play the Danny role given that the village knows there's a high chance of conversion. Especially putting your cunning out there.

I made the late switch to kill Sndvls, the cunning, in the HP game. Had I not switched he wouldn't thane been lynched. I switched minutes before the deadline. Everyone said "no way a wolf would so that to the cunning.". Another wolf didn't die in a Saldana hosted game for like 3 more freakin games. So yes I would have played Danny.

Don't lynch me for b/c you think I am a crappy wolf. I have never been such a thing.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by dzilla77

Not all wolves may have been able to communicate with each other or possibly even know of the others existence.

If that is the case then you are aguing we should just throw the vote record completely out? No thanks.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Agree, dzilla and autumn are the most suspicious based on vote activity. Of course there are other things to look at too.

It's perfectly valid, certainly my vote was the classic meaningless pile on at the last second.

However ... in all honesty if I was a wolf I'd stay right where I was, which I wouldn't have caught flak for, and hope against all hope that someone screws up and ties things. There would have been a decent chance of that, and I wouldn't have moved and ruined that.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by dubb93

If that is the case then you are aguing we should just throw the vote record completely out? No thanks.

I don't think that's what he's arguing, but certainly we have to keep it in perspective. For all we know he had one wolf mate, who wasn't even on tonight. We don't want to put blinders on.

[dubb93]

FWIW I read NtN as only being able to fool the detective, who would only catch him on the night he made a kill anyway. Not sure I would call that "cunning."

[Zinto]

Six pages of stuff to read when I get home is crazy. Even more crazy that we got a wolf on day one.

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by dubb93

If that is the case then you are aguing we should just throw the vote record completely out? No thanks.

If (when?) I am lynched tomorrow, you will be throwing out the voting records, because I am villager.

Anyhow, going to bed. I am sure I will wake to several votes tomorrow. So be it.