FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[thesloppy]

They said ribs for better or worse. Lions are awful thin at RB all of a sudden.

[thesloppy]

Jamo finally got his TD!

[Ksyrup]

I think he scored last week.

[thesloppy]

Lions look good, banking 3 outdoor away games already.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Yes! Fourth straight double-digit win. Currently tied on top of the conference. The defense has been playing outstanding. Jamo coming through was clutch, even if his touchdown wasn’t all that pretty. Anything to get him going and get him some confidence is huge. If they can unlock him and get Gibbs and Montgomery healthy, that’s all of a sudden a lot of weapons on offense.

One huge positive about the defense is that they are doing this without two of their top three defensive fee agents - Mosley and CJ Gardner-Johnson - and Brian Branch. The last two games have essentially been Cam Sutton, Jack Campbell and the same dudes as last year.

[Bobble]

Great win. My only worry is that I keep seeing the bad guys have guys getting open deep. Baker missed more than one today. I'm not sure you can do that kind of bullet dodging in the playoffs.

[Bobble]

Dola, I think we saw the value of Goff in this game. No run game (we're almost running out of running backs) against a very good defense. Goff carried the offense on a lot of long second and third downs. I've heard the phrase "You can win with Goff but you can't win because of Goff". The Lions won that game because of Goff.

[albionmoonlight]

I would say that the Lions are now in the tier of very good teams. Maybe not quite the Chiefs/49ers, but in that tier below that.

Dan Campbell was a great coach for the scrappy underdog team fighting for respect. I am fascinated to see how he handles a very good team that is supposed to win most of its games.

[albionmoonlight]

dola

I think he will do fine. but it is a bit of uncharted territory here.

[Brian Swartz]

My rational side agrees with that assessment. My biggest concern is the defensive secondary - this year. My cognitive dissonance grows with each passing week of them consistently doing good-team things.

If they had done what Philadelphia or San Fran did, it would be in 'yep, same old Lions' territory. They've earned a bad game or two, which will happen at some point. They just need to not make it a bad month or two ... and as always, actually show up when playoff time comes.

Edit: I am also increasingly ... I don't even know the term ... befuddled? Confounded by how surreal it is I guess? Hearing terms like 'we' in this thread referring to the Lions. Hearing the pundits talk about how great the Lions are doing. It's like ... no, you're supposed to be making fun of the Lions. Having pity on them. Something has gone wrong with the simulation if you are doing anything else. I don't know how to handle them being popular. The Red Wings had a long run of that. Tigers even at times. But never the Lions.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The secondary is still a bit of an issue, especially with Emmanuel Mosley and CJ Gardner-Johnson going down. Those are big injuries for this team. They knew their weakness and tried to address it in the off-season. There is an outside shot CJG can come back at some point later this year. At the moment, with Branch out, too, it's the exact same secondary + Cam Sutton that was pretty bad last year. I could see the Lions possibly making a move to get another defensive back at the deadline.

They've had the fortune of playing against Mahomes sans Kelce, Ridder, Love, Young and Bakes. That's not a Murder's Row of QBs. The only legit QB with good weapons they've faced was Geno Smith and the Seahawks and Geno carved up the Lions secondary like a Christmas ham.

The Lions have one the easiest schedules in the NFC going forward. They play at Baltimore next week, at the Chargers two weeks later, and play at Dallas near the end of the season. Other than that they have Green Bay again, Minnesota and Chicago twice, Las Vegas, Denver and New Orleans.

If Montgomery and Gibbs can get healthy and Jamo comes around, this offense could be really something with those guys, that offensive line, St. Brown & LaPorta, and wunderkind Ben Johnson pulling the levers.

[QuikSand]

Quick take-aways from the PFF grades through this year so far:

QB Goff 1/33 with a 90.4 elite grade
WR Amon Ra St Brown 9/113 but Josh Reynolds 15/113 WTAF
TE LaPorta 4/68 overall
The OL playing at an overall ELITE level, top tier other than Jackson
Secondary actually grading out well, other than Jerry and Joseph
Anzalone the standout among the LB corps, Campbell in a rookie slump
DT McNeil and DE Hutchinson both elite, surrounded by mediocrity

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Quik take-aways from the PFF grades through this year so far:

FTFY, Lol.

A lot of pleasant surprises there. I would have never banked on Anzalone but the staff has had faith in him from the beginning. Josh Reynolds sheds "security blanket" moniker and gains "capable receiver". Was hoping for more of a showing from Jack Campbell but it's very early. Third rounder Alim McNeill showing up kinda makes up for second rounder Levi Onwuzurike a little bit.

[Ksyrup]

As both a Broncos and Lions fan, I renew my request for the Lions to trade for Surtain.

Father, son, and might as well throw in the Holy Ghost - because they need them all.

[QuikSand]

yikes

[Bobble]

The Lions look completely unprepared for the Ravens on both sides of the ball. Yikes is right.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by KSyrup

As both a Broncos and Lions fan, I renew my request for the Lions to trade for Surtain.

Never gonna happen. They would demand multiple picks for him if they have any sense.

I was ready for the Lions to lose today, but was hoping they would excise the memory of the Tucker field goal that shouldn't have been. This kind of a game ... really does justify 'same old Lions' hot takes. It's the opposite of what they've shown the last few weeks, the kind of showing that basically doesn't happen to really good teams. They've got generally easy games coming up for a long time, so they should roll up some wins, but we'll see.

[Honolulu_Blue]

1. Burn the tape.
2. Beat the Raiders next week.
3. Head into the bye at 6-2.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

1. Burn the tape.
2. Beat the Raiders next week.
3. Head into the bye at 6-2.

I would prefer they scrutinize that tape like it's their job (which it is). It's the blueprint for beating the Lions and I think every team from here on out is going to try to do as much of what the Ravens did as they can.

I'm not sure every other team can generate the pass rush like the Ravens did so maybe the Lion's offense not decrypted but other teams can attack our defense similar to how the Ravens did. I mean, I'm not sure how often we're going to be handing out 10 second passing pockets but some of the effective routes to TEs and backs are copyable.

[CrimsonFox]

I had a meeting with them today to remind them that the object of the game is to score points. They will take it under advisement.

[albionmoonlight]

A nice bounce back game against the Raiders (though that had to do as much with the Raiders as with Detroit).

So going into the bye, how are we feeling?

I'm feeling pretty good. There's a large good-not-great class in the NFC, and we are right in the middle of it. I see no reason why this team can't be in the NFC Championship game.

This does feel like the strike-now window, too. The OC is almost certainly gone after this year, as well as some other assistants, too, I'd suspect. More than one owner/GM is going to think "We want to bring that Campbell culture into our building."

All of which is to say, if someone is selling at the trade deadline, I'd be willing to give up a real draft asset to bring in a Real Dude.

Oh, and I think that it might be a long-term good thing that they got their teeth kicked in by the Ravens. That's the sort of "every given Sunday" wake up that Campbell will be able to use to keep them motivated.

[QuikSand]

If there's a chance to make a legit buy at edge rusher, I think they should consider it. Emanuel Ogbah can probably be had cheaply from the Dolphins, who would eat most of this year's salary at least. Even someone like Kyle Van Noy from the Ravens (who are buyers too, apparently) could be useful.

Adding a WR would sound fine, but that feels like a tricky fit mid season. But would definitely open to adding Sutton, for instance.


I get your point about the Lions making the NFC Championship game, but that is going to require one solid upset, unless there's a serious shift before then, right? I like where the Lions are, and I like them at home against most of the potential NFC wild card types... but on a neutral field they'd remain material underdogs to both PHI and SF, right?

[albionmoonlight]

I think so. The relevant NFC teams, IMO are Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Seahawks, and Cowboys. With the Eagles and 49ers as a tier above.

But I also think that the Eagles and 49ers are certainly beatable. The Lions' best hope is that they can rack up division wins against the NFC North while teams like the Cowboys and Seahawks make things annoying for the other frontrunners. Maybe sneak into a 1 or 2 seed that way.

[Brian Swartz]

I think the Lions are a half-step below expecting to make the NFC Championship game. I think they're a divisional-round team. I also still would prefer a corner to an edge if they are going to make a trade.

[Bobble]

Although I wouldn't mind a move for an edge, I'm firmly in the camp that they need a corner. If Jimmy G could have hit them, there were multiple times that Raiders were running free back there.

The road to the playoffs is pretty open. There's a chance we get CJGJ back for the playoffs which would be nice but even without him, I feel OK at safety/nickel corner. One more good corner opposite Sutton would be sweet.

I'm also in the camp to not sell off too much of the future in cap space nor draft picks. This feels like a several-year window that's opening here. I don't think this team, even with adding a stud, looks like an obvious superbowl team. I'd like to see a good playoff run so we know what that's like and make our superbowl window the next few years.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Bobble

I'm firmly in the camp that they need a corner.

Gibbs is playing better and better, so no knock on him, but . . . CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ WAS ON THE BOARD AT 12!

I still think that they will regret passing on him in the medium-long term. And, heck, even in the short term.

[tarcone]

Keep drafting Iowa guys. CB Cooper DeJean is a stud.

The new nickname is the "Liowans"

[Bobble]

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson has requested a trade. Hmmmmmmm...

It will be an interesting trade deadline day today.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Cornerback, defensive line and WR are all areas that could really use some help. All of these were known issues going into the offseason.

I think the Lions were banking on Mosley being healthy (he wasn't) and CJ Gardner-Johnson not getting hurt (he did) along with Cam Sutton as their defensive back upgrades in the offseason. Given the injuries, they could definitely use a solid starter.

They really didn't do anything to address the DL, except for draft a massive project in Brodic Martin in the third round, or WR, except for drafting Antoine Green in the 7th round.

Christian Gonzalez looked absolutely legit before going down with the shoulder injury.

[Honolulu_Blue]

It's crazy how much can change in a year in the NFL.

Last year's trade deadline was on November 1 and the Lions traded TJ Hockenson to the Vikings. At that point in the season the Lions were 1-6 and seemed like they were going nowhere. It was very nadir of my faith in the Holmes/Campbell regime.

Since then, I believe the Lions have gone 14-4 and have consistently been one of the best teams in the NFL. Granted, they still can't beat Seattle and had two pretty horrific losses against Carolina (last year) and Baltimore (this year), but at the moment they are a very solid franchise with most of their best players being pretty young still and seem to have the right GM and coaching staff in place.

[QuikSand]

Donovan Peoples-Jones is right about the level worth getting cheap.

If not Davante, then he’s a fine pickup I think.

[albionmoonlight]

https://www.threads.net/@bypatrickfl...c4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

[Bobble]

How about a check in? How are we feeling about our Lions?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Bobble

How about a check in? How are we feeling about our Lions?

Well I still think they are eternally cursed and that anyone who gets their hopes in them will have them dashed horribly.

But despite that I will root for them despite them knowingly that my soul has nothing left to crush.

[albionmoonlight]

The Saints are not a good team. So I am a little nervous that Detroit let them hang in and come back. When Detroit got up 21 nothing it felt like they should’ve won 56 to 3 or something. But they took their foot off the gas. And basically started playing pretty poorly.

Basically, I think they can, and should, win their division. And I think they can win a playoff game. But I still have them below the 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys in the conference. And I think there’s a decent gap between those three teams and the Lions.

[thesloppy]

They aren't as good as their record, that defense is too soft for any real success and they will probably have to face reality in the playoffs, but I'm certainly enjoying the run.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

And I think they can win a playoff game.

Yes, but it will probably be a pick'em. The four most likely opponents appear to be:

• Packers
• Seahawks
• Vikings
• Rams

[Bobble]

My random thoughts:

• Our defense is WEAK. I don't know if there's a solution. I hear people clamoring to fire Glenn but I'd like to have an expert (similar to JT O'Sullivan's YouTube channel) tell me whether he's the problem or that we just don't have the talent.
• It was like the Saints were more concerned about keeping playing time promises to their QBs than winning the game. Every time Taysom Hill was out there, they were getting 8 yards a pop. I was glad to see Carr come back in and then even happier to see Jameis.
• We don't miss Jamaal Williams and NO isn't using him either.
• Goff is throwing a few too many interception-worthy passes for my liking. Prolly related to the next point.
• Our O-line isn't as dominant as it started out. Injuries? Sure, but they're giving up pressure and we were not getting the movement to open things up for Monty.
• LaPorta is overfilling the Hock-sized whole in this offense. Catching AND blocking. Great move by the front office.
• The draft class has been a success. I like Gibbs, like Campbell well enough, LOVE LaPorta, LOVE Branch. Would I rather have Bijan? No.

[thesloppy]

Yeah it's hard to complain about 4 day-one starters out of a draft. If they all keep playing anything like they have early that will be a foundational draft for the future (not even considering if Hooker or some of the other late round picks end up paying some dividends)

[Brian Swartz]

I think the defense might be good enough if everyone is healthy, but that's just not the case and usually isn't in the NFL. A lot of it also I think is that the Lions have reached the point where there's a book on how to play them that goes beyond 'show up and wait for them to beat themselves'.

Strategically, I think Detroit is at the beginning of a window, not the end of it. In theory, if they draft well next year they should be better than they are this year.

[Carman Bulldog]

They were thin at DB last year. They appeared to make some good moves in the off-season to address that but injuries to Moseley and Ceedy Duce wiped out the majority of any gains they made. If they had better coverage, I think their pass rush would also appear better.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Agree with all of the above.

The Lions made a concerted effort to improve their defensive backfield this season by signing Cam Sutton, Mosley and Ceedy Duce and drafting Brian Branch. Losing half of those reinforcements really set the defensive backfield back.

On the other hand, they really did nothing to improve the defensive line. Their one addition was Brodic Martin, a massive DT, who was considered a significant third round reach. Losing James Huston in week 2 really stunted the pass rush. I think they were hoping Josh Paschal would take the next step, but he really hasn't. Alim McNeil has been really good, but Hutchinson hasn't had much help.

Combine those two things - lack of a pass rush and mediocre secondary - and you have a very porous and weak defense.

You have to wonder if the Lions didn't make a mistake trying to get help at the edge or cornerback at the trade deadline. I know they don't want to give up draft capital and are trying to build this thing for the long term, but you only get so many shots and the NFL is pretty unpredictable year-to-year, when things break your way, which they have for the Lions so far this year, I feel you need to take a bit of a shot.

I agree the offensive line has struggled a bit. They haven't been getting a big push on run plays and Goff has been pressured more often. That being said, this is still one of the best offenses in the league.

I can easily see them losing to the Bears in Chicago (cold weather + Goff = no good), losing, at least, one game to Minnesota, getting smoked by the Cowboys, and the Denver game looks tougher than it did initially.

I still think they have built a big enough cushion to win the division - though Green Bay is looking fantastic - but winning their first playoff game since 1991 is looking a bit tougher each week.

The last few weeks the Lions have been looking more like last year's Vikings - winning a bunch of really close games that could have easily gone the other way. They barely won in San Diego and New Orleans, despite going up big early, and needed a miracle to beat Chicago.

Yes, the first four picks of this draft class are looking solid. Bijan Robinson is great, but I think I would take Gibbs + LaPorta over him at this point. Campbell has been improving and Branch has been very solid.

[Brian Swartz]

I understand the argument for trying to upgrade this year, but I think they are more than Chase Young - or whoever - away from the Super Bowl. To me, the injuries they have argue against making that gamble this year. If their secondary was healthy and you think they are one more quality pass rusher away, I think it's a better argument.

Not something I would fight over or anything, it's reasonable to want them to go for it, but I think the injuries and the relative youth they have are stronger reasons not to.

[QuikSand]

the vibe pointing to the Bears' win outright was strong enough that even I bet it, and I am really not much for just betting game outcomes

won a money line bet on the Bears, plus a three leg parlay on the Bears-dominate-the-game script (overs on Fields and Kmet, under on Montgomery)

tough matchup for them

[Carman Bulldog]

Yeah, the Bears really should have won in Detroit, so the win at Soldier Field shouldn't have been a surprise. I like Goff but he's not a quarterback you want on the road outdoors in a cold climate.

[thesloppy]

At this point the Lions only have a 2-game lead on the Vikings and they play each other twice in the last 3 weeks of the season (??) so there's still plenty of room for the Lions to fuck this up. If GB manages to win tonight (knock on wood) they will also be within 2 games of the Lions.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Yes, once what seemed like a lock to win the NFC North for the first time now seems pretty shaky. Green Bay losing to the Giants last night definitely helped.

The Lions host the Broncos this week. The Broncos are on the upswing and Wilson is mobile enough in the pocket to give the Lions trouble. They always struggle with QBs with any kind of mobility.

They will get killed by Dallas in Dallas.

Then they have two games against the Vikings. The Vikings have struggle on offense of late, but their defense has been pretty legit.

The Lions defense has become the defense of the first half of last year. They get no pressure and can't cover anyone. As we've noted, they tried to re-vamp their secondary during the offseason, but lost Mosley and Gardner-Johnson to injury, so they are pretty much right back where they started.

They didn't do anything to address the pass rush, pretty much deciding to run it back with the same D-Line as last year. Losing James Huston has really hurt.

All that being said, the Lions are on offensive team and the last few weeks the offense has really let them down. They've turned the ball over a ton, have been forced to go for it fourth down too often and failed, and, as a result, they've really put the defense in a ton of bad positions - lots of short fields. They had that first quarter against the Saints, the last two drives against Chicago, but other than that they haven't really been all that great the last few games.

The offensive line hasn't played well at all and Goff has regressed. They have stopped doing anything well on offense. That's put a ton of pressure on their defense.

It's been deflating.

[Bobble]

One of the better places I've found for more in-depth analysis on the Lions is All_22_Films on YouTube. They have a guy who is a Ravens and Lions fan so he gets a little more in-depth on the Lions. I think he's a defensive (LB?) coach at some level.

He recently described the defense as too vanilla and needed to be more multiple. Pretty easy to agree after seeing the tape from those games. After CHI, he shows that there are a lot of assignment mistakes, possibly BECAUSE they were being more multiple. All that would makes sense. Now, I don't know if that is because the players are too raw to be asked to learn all the nuances of normal assignments PLUS oddball assignments - or - that the coaching/talent is lacking.

Watching those breakdowns also highlights just how complex the assignments can be. There's a ton of "if this then that unless you see this except if they do that." I don't know how you internalize all that especially the stuff that is only obvious when seen from an overhead all-22 camera rather than seeing it out through your facemask on the field.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Thanks for the link and head's up! Sounds great!

[Brian Swartz]

Looks like they remembered to wear a diaper this week. Best win since early in the year, one away from the division.