09-06-2007, 01:32 AM | #451 |
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I was reading back through the thread, and found that Neon made the following votes:
RPI-Fan AlanT Barkeep On the theory that Neon was the convert trying to get the wolves attention, that would make all those players good. We already know RPI is good, but if Neon is revealed as the goth I'll consider both Alan and BK cleared. |
09-06-2007, 01:33 AM | #452 |
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Dola
He talked about voting for Crim, but never did. |
09-06-2007, 01:51 AM | #453 | |
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I sense someone needs to get to know cronin better. |
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09-06-2007, 01:56 AM | #454 | |
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It varies, but I know six to one wolf was thrown out as a standard to run with in one "game setup" thread a while back, and I used it to good effect in my Major League game (which was much more balanced I think than my Ripper game). Not sure if that's conventional wisdom. I like Alan's theory (I think it was Alan's) that there are four wolves with the fifth "sympathizer" around. I wouldn't be shocked at five plus a sympathizer, though. Would be surprised at just three wolves or at seven. |
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09-06-2007, 02:12 AM | #455 |
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09-06-2007, 02:16 AM | #456 | |
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Neon signed his own death warrant. Why would the wolves try to kill someone who is going to get lynched the next day? And even if he's the convert, what's the point in wasting the kill on him? Converted or not, he gets lynched tomorrow. Unless you're planning on campaigning to save him. In which case, I'll probably vote for you the next day after that. Sorry, this is open and close. |
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09-06-2007, 02:18 AM | #457 | |
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Naw, I would rather not test DT right now. Let the wolves wonder if he's really the duke or not for another day. Let's not screw around, and risk not having NC lynched. |
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09-06-2007, 02:21 AM | #458 |
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09-06-2007, 06:41 AM | #459 |
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There was quite alot of discussion after I went to bed last night. One thing that was brought up that I want to caution against...
Just because players pass items does not mean you should build trust into them. I fully realize that as of right now it sounds like I was the only such player who passed an item, so in a sense I am advising caution against adding trust for myself right now for my passing of the club. In the last game I was in with items similar to this one, I was a wolf that time and we often passed items in an attempt to gain trust and for the most part it worked to some extent. So I would caution against putting too much trust into someone just for them having passed an item to you. As for a comment made by St.Cronin regarding whom he trusts based on Neon's votes.. Cronin mentioned myself, Crim and Barkeep. I don't think I fully extend my trust for that reason just yet. On day 1 wolves occasionally vote for other wolves as a way to seperate themselves and in the case one is found later in the game the other can point to that vote as a way to gain some trust. Day 1 votes for the most part are usually harmless and an easy place for them to throw away a vote on another wolf. I would probably have extended trust to RPI due to Neon putting a third vote on him while no one else had more than 1, thus endagering RPI a bit in the vote. I don't think if I was in someone else's shoes that I would have extended trust to myself due to Neon voting for me (and putting a 1st vote on me but not really putting me at risk), nor do I feel I have put a ton more trust into Barkeep due to Neon's relatively harmless vote on him. Crim is a different story however, Neon was actively campaigning to try to get people to move to Crim at the end due to his "inactivity". Part of this was to save his own skin, however you have to imagine that he wouldn't want to actively put at risk another wolf just to save himself there. So I feel pretty good right now about Crim being a villager. |
09-06-2007, 07:42 AM | #460 |
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09-06-2007, 07:42 AM | #461 |
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Welcome to the party, Chief. I'm going to have to play in your mode for one day, as I won't have Net access for most of today. So I'll get the vote in now.
VOTE NEON_CHAOS |
09-06-2007, 07:50 AM | #462 |
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I think this whole anti-Neon thing is a waste of time and counter productive. The simplest solution is that he is a villager, attempted a ballsy move and it backfired. The whole move was completely unnecessary, because as I pointed out yesterday, he could have easily forced a no lynch. As we all know, the only person whose role you (as a villager) you can be confident of is your own. Thus if Neon is a villager he should try and prevent himself from getting killed 100% of the time, since there is a 0% chance that he's a wolf, and SOME % chance that someone else is a wolf. It is ENTIRELY villagerish to try and save yourself.
Anyhow, let's say that RPI-Fan turns out to be anything but the valet. Here's what I see happening at night: 1. The seer scans Neon, finds out Neon is good. I've already talked about this. More importantly is what happens next: 2. The BG likely protects Neon, the wolves likely attack him (in hopes that the BG tries to get fancy like Lathum did last game). 3. The BG goes elsewhere (gets fancy), wolves still attack Neon, there's a 25% chance Neon fends them off by himself. I think the most likely outcome of the reveal is no night kill, that's good for us. If he WAS the convert, he would have to know he's begging to be protected by his move and thus unlikely to convert. Furthermore, when he's still around on Day 3 he'll likely draw suspicion. I am all for the lynch DT in order to prove his goodness, but not at the expense of Neon. |
09-06-2007, 07:51 AM | #463 |
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09-06-2007, 08:01 AM | #464 | |
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I still say this is the worst possible move ever. If I was the seer and Neon said he was, I would know he was lying, assume he was bad and not even waste a scan on him. Then out him at the proper time (hopefully when I had another wolf in the bag). Thus I might go down due to people beliving the lier over me, but at least you would get a 2 for 1. No reason to scan a wolf to make sure when you know they lied about something that they flat out shouldn't have lied about just to save their own neck. |
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09-06-2007, 08:04 AM | #465 |
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I think we have to just go with occam's razor here. The simplest explanation was that Neon is bad, saw he was about to get lynched (or felt he was with little time to go), came out with a fake reveal that had the most upside for him (would likely save his life and/or out the real seer), and then he got busted that night for his lie.
I'm not ready to throw Barkeep into the distrust pile just yet, but his play here is really making me weary of him... If by some reason Neon was good, and really made a very lousy play here (one that will earn my day 1 vote for a while for him in future games), the only people who would know such are the wolves. |
09-06-2007, 08:17 AM | #466 |
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I should be on and off today, although last night was disheartening. I'm staying on Neon for my vote because I guess I would rather trust DT than force him to use his dukeliness (not a word but it sounds good) now. There hasn't been another reveal so I would tend to believe him (although I did believe Neon). If the BG can protect him, we can keep him around.
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09-06-2007, 08:18 AM | #467 |
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I should be on and off today, although last night was disheartening. I'm staying on Neon for my vote because I guess I would rather trust DT than force him to use his dukeliness (not a word but it sounds good) now. There hasn't been another reveal so I would tend to believe him (although I did believe Neon). If the BG can protect him, we can keep him around.
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09-06-2007, 08:19 AM | #468 |
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I should be on and off today, although last night was disheartening. I'm staying on Neon for my vote because I guess I would rather trust DT than force him to use his dukeliness (not a word but it sounds good) now. There hasn't been another reveal so I would tend to believe him (although I did believe Neon). If the BG can protect him, we can keep him around.
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09-06-2007, 08:21 AM | #469 |
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Sorry for the triple post, work internet acting crazy as hell!
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09-06-2007, 08:30 AM | #470 |
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As for whether or not to trust DT.. I've gone back and forth in my head on this one...
In the end, I don't feel a huge need to push a vote on DT just to prove himself here. I think having the vote split between neon and DT welcomes too many unwanted things from happening (such as late vote switches that force a tie and no lynch). With DT claiming to be the Duke, if he isn't, the real Duke can at any point choose to Duke DT for his lie... So I don't really see someone making a fake reveal as the duke knowing full well the punishment for such a crime. We should all just vote Neon and be done with him. |
09-06-2007, 08:31 AM | #471 |
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Sorry, to clarify the first line in my last post... What I intended to say was "As for whether or not to prove DT's story", not "As for whether or not to trust DT".. As the rest of the post you can see what I intended in my post there. Basically I feel we need to just assume trust in DT knowing if he is lying, he chose the wrong role to lie about.
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09-06-2007, 09:11 AM | #472 | |
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Ok Neon, here is your chance to explain yourself and actually earn some trust. At this post at just after 10pm you were in teh lead with 3 votes. Three other players have 2 each, you voted for one of them. Now, explain to me how you thought creating the whole LIE about being the seer was your choice, knowing that there is no real way in hell you'd survive day 2, when you could simply have moved your vote to cronin or RPI-fan, forced a tie and gotten away with no lynch. Explain that to my satisfaction and I might support letting you live another day. |
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09-06-2007, 09:14 AM | #473 | |
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Can you offer ANY real evidence for the bolded lines BK? Where are you getting this trust from? Its totally out of line with everything we've seen from NC. |
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09-06-2007, 09:24 AM | #474 |
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i can certainly see your point alan. i simply put the whole "vote for me and i'll prove myself" thing out there as an option.
but you're right...the real duke could quite easily take care of me if i'm lying and be sure of getting a wolf, so i suppose you shouldn't worry too much. as for barkeep...very very suspicious. especially because what was it...2 games ago i went back and forth with him over the need to "play %'s WW" where I was arguing against it (cuz it was me on the line and i knew i was good) and he was arguing for it (as a villager IIRC). And now all of a sudden he's swapping his tune to try to protect Neon? When clearly the play that we need to make is to lynch Neon? Weird. |
09-06-2007, 09:31 AM | #475 |
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Well my initial gut instinct regarding Barkeep's play is causing me to wonder what is happening.. I figure the following scenerios:
1) Barkeep and Neon are both good: If this was the case, it would just outright baffle me.. It in my opinion is a horrible play, and you have someone else who also is good defending it.. When all this play has done is cause us to waste two days and lose our seer.. I just can't fathom this scenerio being possible 2) Barkeep is good and Neon is bad: I think this is one of the top 2 most likely scenerios.. The Simplest explanation is Neon was close to being lynched, and threw stuff against the wall to see what would stick. I still don't have an explanation for Barkeep's play, but the only thing I could think is he is just trying too hard to find some different possible explanation here. 3) Barkeep is bad, Neon is good: This is the other scenerio that I think could have some legs. I don't think its the most likely scenerio, but perhaps #2. If Neon was good and Barkeep was bad, Barkeep would know that Neon was not a wolf, and thus must have some other explanation for it. The things going against this scenerio however in my mind is that Barkeep brought it up before we knew neon was lying, and also if Barkeep was a wolf, he wouldn't know for sure if Neon was the convert during this. I think the way this scenerio is possible is if Neon is good and Barkeep was actually the convert, and knew that Neon was neither the convert nor a wolf. 4) Both Barkeep and Neon are bad: I find this scenerio just as unlikely as #1.. If neon is busted and likely will get voted out day 2 and end up being bad, do you really come out and support him strongly like Barkeep is doing here? You just go with the flow, take your loss and mark it up as having gotten the seer in the process as a morale victory. Out of those, I think #1 is most likely followed by #2.. If Neon ends up bad, I highly doubt Barkeep is bad also. If Neon is good, I'll have to really consider Barkeep's motivations here. |
09-06-2007, 09:40 AM | #476 | |
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you and your wonderful knack for summarizing what's going on in my head. if neon is bad i think it's very unlikely that barkeep is also bad. but you honestly think #1 is more likely than #2? you think it's more likely neon is good t han neon being bad? |
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09-06-2007, 10:04 AM | #477 |
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Sorry, I'm having a hectic day at work, and typing long posts up here over the course of several different sessions.. You can read in my 4 points that I feel point #2 and point #3 are the most likely, I don't think scenerio #1 is very likely at all..
Sorry for the confusion, just one of those days for me. I include in scenerio #1 that i find it very unlikely that neon is good here. |
09-06-2007, 10:07 AM | #478 | |
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I agree completely, IF NEON IS A WOLF. However, one theory under consideration is that Neon is the goth, and that his bizarre play was an attempt to transmit that fact to the wolves. If he is in fact the goth, I think it highly unlikely that he would have voted for a wolf. Under that scenario, I don't know how important it is that he talked about voting for (Chuck) Crim but didn't - it may or may not be meaningful. |
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09-06-2007, 10:10 AM | #479 | |
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Alan, I do not understand your meaning here. It's "most likely" that Neon made this play as a villager, and that Barkeep is defending this terrible villager play as another villager? I read the whole post, but I don't get your last paragraph at all. |
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09-06-2007, 10:12 AM | #480 | |
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Ah, okee. I retract my previous post. |
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09-06-2007, 10:17 AM | #481 |
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Wow. Things went nuts after I went to bed. I can tell you that Neon is lying about being given the serving tray, because I have it. I received it in my original PM from Lathum, and didn't pass it to anyone last night, and it wasn't used.
I'm not sure if Neon is a wolf, or just tried something sneaky on day 1 without enough information and ended up in a really bad position...but either way, he screwed up big time and needs to pay... VOTE NEON_CHAOS I voted for him yesterday and stuck with my vote, and I'm doing the same today...it would take a huge mountain of evidence against someone else to make me change my vote at this point. |
09-06-2007, 10:20 AM | #482 |
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I'm having to leave in a few minutes for work, and won't be back on until well after deadline, so here's what I'm doing, and why:
I'm leaving my vote on Daddy Torgo. He claims to be the duke, and lynching him in order for him to use his power is the most sure-fire way to establish trust atm. I'd expect him then to kill Neon, as I believe that most of us agree that the fake seer reveal should result in immediate extinction. I note that a few have voted instead for Neon directly, saying we should "save" DT's power... I may just be dense, but I don't see the advantage. If we have a chance to build a COT of even one, I say let's do it now, as DT seems a likely wolf-target anyway. And with that, I am officially out until 14 hours or so from now! |
09-06-2007, 10:21 AM | #483 |
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09-06-2007, 10:22 AM | #484 |
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I think there's a crapload of trays out there.
I have one too. |
09-06-2007, 10:23 AM | #485 | |
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I agree with your thoughts on Neon's allegiance, however my impression is that there could be multiple of the different item types out there. That wouldn't suprise me, and its not stated in the rules that there are only one of each. Its easy enough to validate however if need be later on. I don't really want the person holding a golf club to come out and say so currently, but I started the game with one (which I foolishly passed to neon last night), so if anyone else started with a golf club, then that means multiples can exist. |
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09-06-2007, 10:23 AM | #486 |
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Multiple trays make me wonder - do they have a cumulative effect? If there's someone that we trust, and they end up with say, 5 trays, what's the % defense?
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09-06-2007, 10:24 AM | #487 | |
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I explained my reasoning for why I don't think voting for DT and splitting the vote makes sense today. If DT is lying about the duke role, then the real duke has an easy kill. Until that point (if it occurs), we can just assume DT is good. I don't see lying about being the duke is a fake reveal with good legs. The best vote in my opinion today is voting directly for neon instead. |
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09-06-2007, 10:37 AM | #488 |
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May or may not mean anything yet, but quiet players always worry me:
MrDna, Raiders Army, Arlington Colt - 3 posts each |
09-06-2007, 10:38 AM | #489 | |
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Alan, I was just about to post the same thing. I second this (yeah, I'm real original). As for the tray thing that somebody mentioned earlier about shifting multiple to a person, I like the idea if we can get a cumulative effect but we need to at least find a couple people we can truly trust before doing this. Could be a great defense though. |
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09-06-2007, 10:40 AM | #490 |
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Obviously DT makes the most sense if people want to pass the trays. Even if its not a cumulative effect, that would enhance the bodyguard's ability to play chicken.
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09-06-2007, 10:40 AM | #491 |
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I really think Neon Chaos put his foot in his mouth..... I'm guessing he is actually the Goth and barkeep is a wolf.. those are just my thoughts so far from reading all the evidence.
Vote Neon Chaos |
09-06-2007, 10:42 AM | #492 |
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dola,
in regards to st. cronin, I don't post much regardless. I have 28 posts in 5 years! (and believe it or not I'm here all day at work!) This is my first swim through this game, I'm still picking it up a bit. |
09-06-2007, 10:47 AM | #493 |
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So I'll pass the tray to someone. Or not.
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09-06-2007, 10:49 AM | #494 | |
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I didn't want a tie. And the way things were going, and with the momentum I was probably building, even if I had forced a tie, people would call me out on it. I was pissed off that nobody would move a finger to save my ass when even the argument against me was weak. I really didn't have much of a choice. I know that I should have known better and taken one for the team... but I panicked. Nothing was really going to be figured out by the big spread of votes. I was calling out to people to actually thin that vote total down. It was a maverick move, but I thought I could have done the village a favor by drawing attention away from the seer, and then confuse the wolves by calling the BG out to help me. I know that this is the weakest argument, but it's the truth. I'd rather tell the truth than lie anymore and continue to fuck things up. As much as possible, I would want to live past this day and redeem myself, however small that chance is. I'm not voting for myself, and I will probably not even vote tonight if it's just going to be a landslide against me.
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09-06-2007, 10:50 AM | #495 |
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09-06-2007, 10:53 AM | #496 | |
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I don't know where you're getting at, but I do have the serving tray. Not sure about multiple items though. Lathum: Are the items' defensive powers cumulative?
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09-06-2007, 10:56 AM | #497 |
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09-06-2007, 11:03 AM | #498 |
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good point purdue.
and i guess i see the point about not voting for me...that makes some sense. let's string neon up and get us a baddie |
09-06-2007, 11:27 AM | #499 |
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We're not going to get a bad guy with Neon. I as a wolf would never stick my neck out, when there's been no suspicion on me, to defend Neon simply because of the suspicion, as has already happened, that would follow, whether or not he's good.
I maintain that Neon is likely good, I know I'm good. I've defended Neon because I don't think it makes sense to kill villagers. Further, I think in the long run that I don't like the idea of villagers having less plays in their playbooks than the wolves. Blade showed us that a villager could lie, for the benefit of the village, in multiple games. I don't see why this is different. I maintain that voting for DT and having him move the vote to someone else does us the most good. Neon is the wrong way to go today. Go ahead and think that I'm a wolf because of it. Fine. But that's the truth and if you decide to do the lynch Neon, he comes up good so BK must be a wolf, let's lynch him, we'll be done three villagers in our votes with no information gained. Two days of easy votes is not a good thing. |
09-06-2007, 11:27 AM | #500 |
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Not a good thing in the sense that no voting record is established.
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