Werewolf LXXVI - The Werewolf Draft! Game over, see last pages for details

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

cmon Telle, I have 5 votes already and there is no decent argument I can make. Plus anyone who already has a vote is going to switch to me also out of self preservation.

My guess is Poli assumed something like this would happen and picked me as the fake seer, that way if I was killed early it would eliminate some confusion.

You've just made my argument for me. If Poli knew you'd be a likely early lynch target, why wouldn't he do what I've been saying he'd do and leave you for Hoops?

And there's no way Poli makes you the real seer. That makes a LOT LESS sense than Hoops picking you for the cunning wolf as the village is inclined to distrust you anyawy until you scan clean, and there's no way for you to be scanned as clean if you're the seer.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

no need to wait, by tomorrow I would have had 10-12 votes and 5 hours to change peoples minds.

like GE said, I am dead either way so lets hope I am the fake seer.

Oh come on. No way the veterans around here let a run like that happen on Day 1. There's always a push to make sure there's at least two candidates.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I have changed my stance on WW posts. They shouldn't.

Dola.

My wife has been on the board for like 2 weeks and has like 200 or more post (too lazy to check), all in WW.

Maybe we should have a separate WW post cpunt.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

no need to wait, by tomorrow I would have had 10-12 votes and 5 hours to change peoples minds.

like GE said, I am dead either way so lets hope I am the fake seer.

Nah. I'm thinking you're a wolf.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Dola.

My wife has been on the board for like 2 weeks and has like 200 or more post (too lazy to check), all in WW.

Maybe we should have a separate WW post cpunt.

Wow.

You guys just proved my point. I posted twice in 20 seconds, and my dola like double destroyed.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I have changed my stance on WW posts. They shouldn't.

Did you mean to quote something? To what does this refer?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I actualy am pretty sure I am the fake seer though

How could you guess this?

Originally Posted by Lathum

My guess is Poli assumed something like this would happen and picked me as the fake seer, that way if I was killed early it would eliminate some confusion.

Oh. But when the fake seer dies they are "revealed as seer upon death" - how would that eliminate some confusion?

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Did you mean to quote something? To what does this refer?

Nope.

It's been in my mind for a while.

Carry on. This has nothing to do with the current game.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Seriously, for those who think I should have waited?

what am I waiting for?

Do you all really think some other candidate would have emerged based on the dynamics of this game?

Yes and yes. They always do. I've seen maybe 1 runaway vote on a day one in all the games I've played, there almost always develops a move to get a second person on the block to see what happens closer to deadline.

Your reveal would have been a thousand times more useful to you and effective overall had it come first thing tomorrow morning with a quick commnet of "Well I can't wait anymore, "I'm the seer" "" than it does coming out right now when nothing is set in stone.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Telle

Could be you're a wolf and figured you're going down so might as well make a play to try and draw the real seer out.

why would the real seer come out on day 1 to challange my reveal.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Telle

Oh come on. No way the veterans around here let a run like that happen on Day 1. There's always a push to make sure there's at least two candidates.

The draft has totally changed this day 1. We actually have something to go on - it's not a crap shoot.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

You've just made my argument for me. If Poli knew you'd be a likely early lynch target, why wouldn't he do what I've been saying he'd do and leave you for Hoops?

I mean no offense to Poli but I really think it is a stretch that you would both think to enact that strategy.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I've been out of the loop too long, but it does seem like there is more from previous games I've played in.

I think if we pared it all down we'd have 2-3 pages of good WW talk...and you can include this post in the non-good talk.

Could it be a ploy by the wolves to create a friendly atmosphere and avoid accusation when their names are brought up?

[Alan T]

Right now I'm thinking that all of the earlier talk from lathum regarding "No way that Hoops picks both Saldana and I as wolves" was just leveraging the thought in our mind for the future in case Lathum did get busted early as it seemed likely was happening. Once the momentum continued he pulls out a fake seer reveal considering that any real seer (or real fake seer) could possibly just assume that Lathum was the other one and they wouldn't out themselves at this point..

Unvote Saldana
Vote Lathum

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Did you mean to quote something? To what does this refer?

He's talking abuot whether posts in this forum should count.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Oh. But when the fake seer dies they are "revealed as seer upon death" - how would that eliminate some confusion?

because we wouldn't have 2 people claiming the same role with different scans trying to sort things out in 3 or 4 days.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Go Badgers.

Heard they picked up that Monte Ball from St. Louis (Timberlake, Timberland, whatever). Stud.

[Schmidty]

I am now..........still the most hated WW player (since Blade is gone).

[path12]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

carson palmer? blech!!

carson palmer=bengals=cincinnati=ohio=lyingcheatingwhoreville=blech

although lyingcheatingwhore hates cincinnati ("the capital of northern kentucky") so i guess by virtue of that I ought to be okay with the bengals.

Good to see the bitterness fading. Back to lurking.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Nah. I'm thinking you're a wolf.

think what you like. It will be fun tomorrow when you are proved wrong

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by KWhit

The draft has totally changed this day 1. We actually have something to go on - it's not a crap shoot.

I have to disagree with this, while we may have some theories we really still have no solid evidence at all, so day 1 still is pretty much a crapshoot.

Lathum just hapened to be the guy that fell into the most prevelant theory and got mired in it.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Right now I'm thinking that all of the earlier talk from lathum regarding "No way that Hoops picks both Saldana and I as wolves" was just leveraging the thought in our mind for the future in case Lathum did get busted early as it seemed likely was happening. Once the momentum continued he pulls out a fake seer reveal considering that any real seer (or real fake seer) could possibly just assume that Lathum was the other one and they wouldn't out themselves at this point..

So you don't give Lathum any credit for his reveal? It strengthens your thought that he is a wolf?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I mean no offense to Poli but I really think it is a stretch that you would both think to enact that strategy.

But you yourself just said that you think Poli made you the fake seer because he thought you might get lynched early. I don't think it's that big a stretch to go from that to:

"Hey, if he's likely to be lynched early, it might be best if he's not on my team at all. Wow. Hoops picks last. I can let him have Lathum. Cool."

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

because we wouldn't have 2 people claiming the same role with different scans trying to sort things out in 3 or 4 days.

Ok, but what if you're the real seer?

Or do you just trust Poli enough not to put you in that role for fear of a run like today?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mccollins

So you don't give Lathum any credit for his reveal? It strengthens your thought that he is a wolf?

I actually was leaning against him being a wolf earlier but this reveal makes no sense to me at this point and the casual way it was thrown out there. Lathum knows that there are plenty of people around tommorrow morning and early afternoon that if he revealed saying "I'm the seer don't lynch me" would likely get enough momentum to save him...

A reveal this early makes it seem more likely to me that he is a wolf digging for information to try to use for a night kill target while also trying to save him for a few days instead.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Yes and yes. They always do. I've seen maybe 1 runaway vote on a day one in all the games I've played, there almost always develops a move to get a second person on the block to see what happens closer to deadline.

Your reveal would have been a thousand times more useful to you and effective overall had it come first thing tomorrow morning with a quick commnet of "Well I can't wait anymore, "I'm the seer" "" than it does coming out right now when nothing is set in stone.

I have played more games then just about anyone, I know how these things go. Nobody will want to vote the second candidate, if one actually emerged, because they would be afraid it would look like they were trying to save me.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Come on now, Lathum - no need to get huffy.

I actually have to disagree here... there is a lot of need for him to get huffy. If that statement was made against me I would have opened a can of OlieRage on him.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I have to disagree with this, while we may have some theories we really still have no solid evidence at all, so day 1 still is pretty much a crapshoot.

Lathum just hapened to be the guy that fell into the most prevelant theory and got mired in it.

We very, very rarely have any solid evidence. We're always voting based on theories - except for most first days where we don't even have those. This is playing like a day 3 or so because at least we have something to base some logical discussion on.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

having posts count is so great. nobody tell the HNIC

These posts count?

[Poli]

Test.

[Poli]

Woot!

[Poli]

[st.cronin]

lol

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I actually have to disagree here... there is a lot of need for him to get huffy. If that statement was made against me I would have opened a can of OlieRage on him.

I'm loving this whole OlieRage thing...never had an actual emotion named after me before I might have to put mccollins original use of the word in my sig!

Wonder what it would take to get an "olierage" smilie for use in WW games????

[Lathum]

Let me be clear.


Ordinaraly on day 1 I wouldn't reveal this early because there is a lack of information.


In this game there is more info to go on, while I think it very unlikely Poli thought the same thing as Kwit it is at least something to go on.

That is much more of a reason to go with someone then we usualy have.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have played more games then just about anyone, I know how these things go. Nobody will want to vote the second candidate, if one actually emerged, because they would be afraid it would look like they were trying to save me.

See now this is the problem, because if you had made this play at say 8am tmorrow morning? my vote would have been gone as soon as I saw it. The timing would have made sense then.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by RendeR

See now this is the problem, because if you had made this play at say 8am tmorrow morning? my vote would have been gone as soon as I saw it. The timing would have made sense then.

Disregarding the timing aspect of this for a moment... Do you really think that Poli would make Lathum the seer?

[KWhit]

Ding!

6000 posts.

[saldana]

i have a problem with the assumption that we seem to be making that Poli wouldnt want Lathum on his team...just because he is a great wolf doesnt mean he isnt a good villager....his abilites are just as good as anyone elses as a villager.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Another reason to vote for Lathum:

If he is a wolf, there's a decent chance that Hoops would make him the cunning wolf. The cunning wolf is BY FAR our biggest obstacle to winning the game. If we take out the cunning wolf early in the game, we will almost assuredly win the game.

Why would Hoops make Lathum the cunning wolf? Well, I'ev said the reason before, but I'll restate.

1) It's possible that Hoops decided to draft Lathum with the express purpose of making him the cunning. He knows that Lathum will be scanned early, and could be in a CoT.

2) If Hoops decided not to draft him, then I think Poli would make Hoops take him for the reasons I've outlined. If Hoops ended up with him in this manner, I think he still considers making him the cunning wolf in order to beat an inevitable early seer scan.

I honestly dont see Hoops making Lathum a cunning wolf. I really dont think Hoops made him a wolf. Anybody who has played with Lathum long enough knows that he ALWAYS gets picked on. Whether he deserves it or whether he starts baggering people until he annoys them enough to vote for him, he NEVER makes it to the end of a game. Hoops would not make him a wolf.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

i have a problem with the assumption that we seem to be making that Poli wouldnt want Lathum on his team...just because he is a great wolf doesnt mean he isnt a good villager....his abilites are just as good as anyone elses as a villager.

That was actually the comment I made earlier in the day and why I decided to vote you instead. I felt it was more likely that Hoops would pick you as a wolf than Lathum. I'm perplexed by Lathum's moves today though, so changed my mind I guess.

[saldana]

also, we also know that Poli wants to win as badly as anyone...would he actually take someone else that may not give him the best chance at winning?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

See now this is the problem, because if you had made this play at say 8am tmorrow morning? my vote would have been gone as soon as I saw it. The timing would have made sense then.

this makes no sense to me.

If you believe me at 8:00AM tomorrow morning why wouldn't you believe me now?

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Ding!

6000 posts.

Yeah. I just hit 7,000 the other day. I wasn't really that exited. I've probably lost like 1,00 posts because of board moves and WW posts not counting back on the other board.

I don't know why this is bothering me so much today. Maybe I'm just getting crusty and old.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I honestly dont see Hoops making Lathum a cunning wolf. I really dont think Hoops made him a wolf. Anybody who has played with Lathum long enough knows that he ALWAYS gets picked on. Whether he deserves it or whether he starts baggering people until he annoys them enough to vote for him, he NEVER makes it to the end of a game. Hoops would not make him a wolf.

Yes, which was my original premise. If Poli were smart, he would have left Lathum for Hoops' final pick.

The other stuff I was saying about how he's more likely to be a cunning wolf than someone else seems to just be confusing people. But the more likely scenario is that Poli would know everything you say in your post I quoted and therefore wouldn't pick Lathum - knowling he'd be a target for us to go after.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I honestly dont see Hoops making Lathum a cunning wolf. I really dont think Hoops made him a wolf. Anybody who has played with Lathum long enough knows that he ALWAYS gets picked on. Whether he deserves it or whether he starts baggering people until he annoys them enough to vote for him, he NEVER makes it to the end of a game. Hoops would not make him a wolf.

There is a theory going around that lathum was forced into being a wolf. Since the last pick went to the wolves, Poli could have intentionally left lathum on the board.

In order for you to buy into this, you would have to think that Poli would leave a player of Lathum's caliber for that long. It would be a brilliant move if executed correctly, but I have my doubts.

[GoldenEagle]

If Lathum is a wolf, he is a brutal wolf and will take someone with him.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Dola.

My wife has been on the board for like 2 weeks and has like 200 or more post (too lazy to check), all in WW.

Maybe we should have a separate WW post cpunt.

I love it when you quote yourself

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by saldana

i have a problem with the assumption that we seem to be making that Poli wouldnt want Lathum on his team...just because he is a great wolf doesnt mean he isnt a good villager....his abilites are just as good as anyone elses as a villager.

I'm not saying anything about his abilities. I'm saying that Poli was given a great opportunity to effectively pick Hoops' final wolf for him. If I had that chance, I'd make sure it was Lathum. There's a good chance he did that. There's also the possibility that Hoops picked Lathum as a wolf. Add those two together and you get a much higher probablity that Lathum is a wolf than you get from any other player in the game.

I'm not saying that Lathum is definitely a wolf. I'm not saying there's a 75% chance he's a wolf. But there's definitely a better chance than anyone else we can pick on day one.

His reveal has just made me believe that he's even more likely to be a wolf.

[GoldenEagle]

Also, how much did relationships factor into the draft selection. Husbands/Wives, BFFs, etc.?