Werewolf LXXXII - Cops and Robbers (Day 3 Deadline 4 PM EST Thursday)

[EagleFan]

vote ntndeacon

This could potentially change, just kind of going along with the conventional thinking at this point. I'll try to get somewhere during lunch to be able to run through the players a little better to see if there is anything that I may have missed thus far.


Oh, to respond to Narcizo, my Alan vote was based off a couple things. One being what I guess is a misread of what saldana posted (I read too much into it I guess since he has come out to say that wasn't his intended meaning). He is clearly CoT so I went with my interpretation of what he said (obviously a wrong interpretation).

[Narcizo]

Wonder if he remembers it's a late deadline today.

[Alan T]

Actually 5 roles left.. forgot about the ex-con

[SnDvls]

I have to totally agree with Barkeep that NTN has just had a string of bad luck. I really truely feel that path is the way to go today.

[Alan T]

12 players left.. 1 bad guy, 5 roled villagers (1 revealed).. I will come out and say I am not a roled villager at all, just a normal customer.

So after the 5 roled players come out with no counter claims, that would leave 7 players to sort through (or for me 6 players since I'm not going to consider voting for myself). If the seer can even toss out 1 or 2 names, that should lock this up.

The only downside to this though is that the ex-con if targeted by the bad guys could be converted if he chooses.. so I'm not sure if a mass reveal is a slam dunk at this point.

I do think I personally need path to give a little more detail than his hit and run claim of a role without details, since that is too convenient to be faked. Since we have plenty of time today though, I'll wait to see what else he can provide. I have no problems with a ntn or packerfanatic lynch today either.

Also to take that further, ntn also I believe has come out and said he is not roled.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I agree with this, especially since deadline is pushed back to 4pm ET today correct? That is still right isn't it? If so, that gives 5-6 hours in the main part of the business day that most people should have a chance to get in on. We should have done this last night though.

My issue here is Path's post could be entirely BS, or it might now. We already saw Claphamsa get out of a lynch on day 1 with close to the same quote, and don't know the validity of that either. We know Saldana has a role.. so that would be 3 of the roled good guys right there. We only have what 4 roled players, so only really one other to come out correct?

I'm figuring two cops, a seer and a duke. I don't think we should interpret Clap's statement as definitely meaning he has a role - I think PB was right in that case and clap does often say voting for him would be a mistake, even if he doesn't have a role.

I've also just realised that we're not actually 100% sure Saldana is the boy, just 99%. (there might not be a boy in the game and he just got big time lucky. I don't believe that but it's a very remote possibility).

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I have to totally agree with Barkeep that NTN has just had a string of bad luck. I really truely feel that path is the way to go today.

Are you trying to tell us something? I actually hope that is the case as that would mean a 3rd wolf nailed. I'm not moving my vote at this time though just in case this statement doesn't mean anything role related but rather just a gut feeling.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm figuring two cops, a seer and a duke. I don't think we should interpret Clap's statement as definitely meaning he has a role - I think PB was right in that case and clap does often say voting for him would be a mistake, even if he doesn't have a role.

I've also just realised that we're not actually 100% sure Saldana is the boy, just 99%. (there might not be a boy in the game and he just got big time lucky. I don't believe that but it's a very remote possibility).

If Lathum had ended up a good guy, I would at least entertain this thought more. Since Lathum ended up bad, I don't see a wolf faking that role only to have the vote fall to a different wolf... I think that would have been more effort than its worth. I really have a hard time believing Saldana isn't the boy at this point.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Actually 5 roles left.. forgot about the ex-con

We don't know that the ex-con or duke are in the game. In fact we can't be positive the psychic is either. I think the fact that the rules state that there are two cops probably means that there are two cops, but I guess Heinz could be messing with us there.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

vote ntndeacon

This could potentially change, just kind of going along with the conventional thinking at this point. I'll try to get somewhere during lunch to be able to run through the players a little better to see if there is anything that I may have missed thus far.


Oh, to respond to Narcizo, my Alan vote was based off a couple things. One being what I guess is a misread of what saldana posted (I read too much into it I guess since he has come out to say that wasn't his intended meaning). He is clearly CoT so I went with my interpretation of what he said (obviously a wrong interpretation).

I just don't get this....if Saldana is in your CoT why would you not be voting with him vs. against him.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If Lathum had ended up a good guy, I would at least entertain this thought more. Since Lathum ended up bad, I don't see a wolf faking that role only to have the vote fall to a different wolf... I think that would have been more effort than its worth. I really have a hard time believing Saldana isn't the boy at this point.

Yeah, with what was then a 2nd wolf on the chopping block it would make no sense to do a fake reveal (especially a fake reveal that caused the other wolf to be lynched). A fake reveal basically gives us wolf number 3 and that would be a very desperate move to try a fake reveal hoping that the revealed role was not in the game.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I just don't get this....if Saldana is in your CoT why would you not be voting with him vs. against him.

It's called not being caught up in the thread at that point. Plus I am not sold on the path vote at this time as I thought his day one vote looked good enough to give him another day to see.

[ntndeacon]

I have not given any indication in my role, nor much of anything else. I will suggest that if the seer comes out that since we know we have two cops, the policeman with the first name alphabetically protects the seer tonight.

[Narcizo]

Or they both do, if that's a possibility that increases their chance of protection.

[ntndeacon]

And let's talk about my lack of voting for a wolf. the second one there was a reveal later in the day. my resoning for not moving there is that I didn't see the reveal. I did not get back on til after night fell.

Was there a reveal day one. I do not remember. anyway it was bad luck the first day.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Or they both do, if that's a possibility that increases their chance of protection.

actually this gives the cops a good plan of action since they can't PM. It provids the seer with protection each night from one cop. as they can't not protect the same person back to back per the rules.

[Narcizo]

Anyway, I'm off for a couple of hours or so. I'm not sure revealing is the way to go at this stage, I guess the psychic and cops are the only ones who can judge that based on the information they have. I've been getting some confusing signals today so I might have been misinterpreting things mightily. As is my wont.

[SnDvls]

dola - I just hope they are listening

[EagleFan]

If we think through the mass reveal option.

Assuming 5 roles that gives us 5 cleared and 7 questions.

If there were 4 wolves we have 10-2 now:

If the seer survives two more nights and scans a wolf it makes the game pretty much over. If the seer lives two more nights and clears two from the list we have just 3 people left to look at (assuming we incorrectly lynch 2 villagers from the list). If that is the case we would be at 6-2 with 5 people still in a cleared state. A wrong lynch at worst makes it 4-2 with the 2 known wolves left.

The only problem depends on how the ex-con handles this.

Best case scenario is that the seer has scanned a wolf (or at least clears two of the non roled villagers). If there are two non-roled villagers already cleared it makes mass reveal a slam dunk as we have just 5 people left to figure out and 2 may get scanned before the seer gets nailed by the wolves.

[EagleFan]

unvote ntndeacon

Just because I am not sure yet and I want to see if there is a mass reveal. I have a feeling he has a role based on his post.

[EagleFan]

Wait, my math is bad. I forgot about the lead robber being able to take someone with them. I guess the question is which do we risk, the chance of just missing after a mass reveal or the chance of putting is in a near clinching position.

[EagleFan]

Have to sign off for a bit but will try to get back on in a little while to see where we are at.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I have not given any indication in my role, nor much of anything else. I will suggest that if the seer comes out that since we know we have two cops, the policeman with the first name alphabetically protects the seer tonight.

Yeah sorry, I think I was the one that mentioned you saying something about your role.. but that was me mis-remembering what I read. Looking back through you simply say you aren't a wolf.. which obviously is what anyone would say. My bad on that.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I've been inclined to give NTN the benefit of the doubt. The case against path seems acceptable.

Unvote cronin
Vote path

[Alan T]

I think it is likely a real bad idea to vote for ntndeacon, just playing off of my hunch here. I don't care if ntn voters want to vote for Path, or Packerfanatic or someone else.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

In case I die tonight, figure I'd throw out thoughts for day 3..

People who have voted for wolves both days:

Saldana - 2
Eaglefan - 2
Alan - 2

People who voted for wolves 1 of 2 days:

Narcizo - 1
Packerfanatic - 1
Claphamsa - 1
path12 - 1
St.Cronin - 1
Barkeep - 1
Illinifan - 1
The Jackal - 1
Sndvls - 1

People who have not voted for a wolf yet:

ntndeacon

Wanted to quickly revisit this for a moment too.

If Saldana didn't reveal and the following people weren't on to see it this is how it would have changed things.

EagleFan moves from 2-0 vs wolves to 1-1
Jackal and myself (SnDvls) would both move to 0-2 w/ NTN.

Of course Jackal was a customer as he was night killed. This is why I like BK's theory even more.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Wanted to quickly revisit this for a moment too.

If Saldana didn't reveal and the following people weren't on to see it this is how it would have changed things.

EagleFan moves from 2-0 vs wolves to 1-1
Jackal and myself (SnDvls) would both move to 0-2 w/ NTN.

Of course Jackal was a customer as he was night killed. This is why I like BK's theory even more.

I guess an equally applicable question going down that path was who was around after Saldana's reveal and didn't move their vote? I don't usually really watch who is "viewing" the thread, but I'll go back and look to see who posted between Sal's reveal and the deadline but didn't move their vote off of him.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I guess an equally applicable question going down that path was who was around after Saldana's reveal and didn't move their vote? I don't usually really watch who is "viewing" the thread, but I'll go back and look to see who posted between Sal's reveal and the deadline but didn't move their vote off of him.

Well.. that was a short exercise.. the answer is no one.

[PackerFanatic]

As I said yesterday, had I been around, I fully intended on moving my vote. But alas, I wasn't.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Yeah sorry, I think I was the one that mentioned you saying something about your role.. but that was me mis-remembering what I read. Looking back through you simply say you aren't a wolf.. which obviously is what anyone would say. My bad on that.

No problem. I just wanted to set the record straight. I don't want there to be anything to keep whatever role I have to be against what has been said about my role.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well.. that was a short exercise.. the answer is no one.

ya it was a very late reveal if I remember correctly and it appears the only people to post between the reveal are EF, Jackal, myself & you, Alan.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

ya it was a very late reveal if I remember correctly and it appears the only people to post between the reveal are EF, Jackal, myself & you, Alan.

Which makes sense because a wolf seeing that reveal and having their vote on Saldana aren't going to post. They're going to turtle up and hope not enough movement occurs to save Saldana and doom Lathum.

[claphamsa]

ah, alan is back

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

ah, alan is back

Do you have a video camera in my home-office?? I just got up and got some pizza and came back.. wasn't gone more than 5 minutes!

[SnDvls]

I really want some more info on St. C, illinifan & EagleFan

their actions today to me have been really fishy

[Alan T]

I see Path around. I would love for you to help provide more information leading to why we should move off of you. At this point, if you are a roled villager like you said you should reveal so we have time to move elsewhere.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think it is likely a real bad idea to vote for ntndeacon, just playing off of my hunch here. I don't care if ntn voters want to vote for Path, or Packerfanatic or someone else.

Why PF? I think he had one of the better votes from day one and that puts him close to being a CoT member. If I recall correctly many people have even said that. Pointing him out makes no sense in my opinion.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Why PF? I think he had one of the better votes from day one and that puts him close to being a CoT member. If I recall correctly many people have even said that. Pointing him out makes no sense in my opinion.

Re-read through my posts yesterday. Day 1 was much less of a trusting situation than Day 2. So while Day 1 is important, I think more weight is placed on what people did on Day 2. Like I said before, the three I would target are path, packerfanatic and ntndeacon.. Based on other conversations, I feel really bad with an ntn lynch right now.. so I have no issues with people voting either packer or path right now. My vote is on path simply because I like Packer's vote on day 1 better than Path's vote on day 1 (timing wise), and similarly the same on day 2 because of timing. Otherwise their voting history is pretty identical.

If you want to talk about good/bad votes, then the only lynch is ntn, but I've already said I don't support that today. So not sure what else you want.

[Narcizo]

Unvote NTN
Vote Path

I want to force Path's hand and I'm getting a positive vibe from NTN while Path's non-specific cut-and-run reveal looks pretty suspect to me. At the moment it seems more likely to me that NTN has a village role rather than Path. Still I hope Path gets back before deadline.

[EagleFan]

vote path

I will be stepping away shortly and I haven't seen him respond to some of the questions yet, though I have seen him in the thread for quite some time.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Re-read through my posts yesterday. Day 1 was much less of a trusting situation than Day 2. So while Day 1 is important, I think more weight is placed on what people did on Day 2. Like I said before, the three I would target are path, packerfanatic and ntndeacon.. Based on other conversations, I feel really bad with an ntn lynch right now.. so I have no issues with people voting either packer or path right now. My vote is on path simply because I like Packer's vote on day 1 better than Path's vote on day 1 (timing wise), and similarly the same on day 2 because of timing. Otherwise their voting history is pretty identical.

If you want to talk about good/bad votes, then the only lynch is ntn, but I've already said I don't support that today. So not sure what else you want.

Why would a day one vote be less important? If PF was a wolf he would not want to cast a vote on a fellow wolf at a late enough time preiod that puts that wolf in danger of being lynched. It has been mentioned that PF was not in the thread post reveal for the day 2 vote. If he was and still did not change than it may point to something fishy. Maybe I am missing something though but PF is one of the people who is least on my radar at the moment.

[EagleFan]

Not sure if this means anything but I at least find it interesting that path has now left the thread.

[Narcizo]

Because on day one there's more of a chance that a wolf will throw in a vote on a wolf and then find it stuck there. On day two I don't really see that happening after they've just lost a wolf on day one. I think PF's day one vote is pretty solid though, it just doesn't strike me as being a time when a wolf would vote for another wolf. It was far too dangerous for that. I'd say my vote was less solid than PFs, as you could argue I (as a wolf) was hoping the clap-Render vote off was going to run away with it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not sure if this means anything but I at least find it interesting that path has now left the thread.

I find it interesting as well.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Because on day one there's more of a chance that a wolf will throw in a vote on a wolf and then find it stuck there. On day two I don't really see that happening after they've just lost a wolf on day one. I think PF's day one vote is pretty solid though, it just doesn't strike me as being a time when a wolf would vote for another wolf. It was far too dangerous for that. I'd say my vote was less solid than PFs, as you could argue I (as a wolf) was hoping the clap-Render vote off was going to run away with it.

I unerstand the wolf voting for a wolf on day one idea, just saying that based on when it happened (as you mention) I would not suspect that as the case as it was far to late and directly put that player in danger of lynching.

The timing of it should give PF some leniency yet Alan has him listed as a top 3 suspect. That part makes no sense to me.

[EagleFan]

Dammit I am an idiot. I kept confusing path with clap. I initially had a hard time with the path vote but now see it was clap who made what I thought was a good vote on PB day one while path's may have been the inevitable wolf pile on vote after PB was losing the vote. I am definitely keeping my vote where it is now.

[Narcizo]

Path 8- SnDvls (382), Alan (434), Saldana (436), NTN (437), Packer (439), Barkeep (474), Narcizo (489), EagleFan (490)
NTN 4 - Cronin (405), illini (435), clap (438), Path (440)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Why would a day one vote be less important? If PF was a wolf he would not want to cast a vote on a fellow wolf at a late enough time preiod that puts that wolf in danger of being lynched. It has been mentioned that PF was not in the thread post reveal for the day 2 vote. If he was and still did not change than it may point to something fishy. Maybe I am missing something though but PF is one of the people who is least on my radar at the moment.

Of course your radar had you quickly putting a vote on me earlier in this day which makes less sense

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Of course your radar had you quickly putting a vote on me earlier in this day which makes less sense

My radar has been faulty lately...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I unerstand the wolf voting for a wolf on day one idea, just saying that based on when it happened (as you mention) I would not suspect that as the case as it was far to late and directly put that player in danger of lynching.

The timing of it should give PF some leniency yet Alan has him listed as a top 3 suspect. That part makes no sense to me.

Like I already said, which I think you glossed over.. so far this game the vast majority of people remaining have a "good voting history".. so if we were to use your criteria, everyone should vote for ntn, which I think is a mistake.

I don't know, maybe I am relying too much on my gut here, but it doesn't seem that much of a reach to me that the three people to be looked at Packer, path and ntn would be narrowed to packer and path if I chose that I didn't think ntn should be voted for.