2011-12 MLB Offseason Thread: Tigers are really stupid

[stevew]

I wonder if a guy like Bryce Harper would just become a citizen of Andorra or some othe quasi nation state in order to bypass the draft.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Yeah, but once he finds a team that will, then essentially his best guy goes to the highest bidder. This is better how?

Edit: if you think that teams wouldn't do that to get a Harper/Strasburg/Cole talent, well, agree to disagree.

I don't see another $15 million signing. You're looking at around $25 million plus 2 draft picks for that. I also don't think Cole is the type of talent that anyone would have risked giving up 2 more draft picks to get. He had too many concerns going into the draft. The only players I could see anyone considering losing 2 draft picks over the past 10 years would be Strasburg, Harper, and Prior.

MLB will have to keep an eye on how things work under the new system and see how the next "once in a generation" talent is handled. 2 draft picks plus the tax is going to hurt. You have to be 100% sure a guy is going to be a solid major league player to eat that cost.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't see another $15 million signing. You're looking at around $25 million plus 2 draft picks for that. I also don't think Cole is the type of talent that anyone would have risked giving up 2 more draft picks to get. He had too many concerns going into the draft. The only players I could see anyone considering losing 2 draft picks over the past 10 years would be Strasburg, Harper, and Prior.

MLB will have to keep an eye on how things work under the new system and see how the next "once in a generation" talent is handled. 2 draft picks plus the tax is going to hurt. You have to be 100% sure a guy is going to be a solid major league player to eat that cost.

It may happen someone will give up the world for one player, but my guess is they won't. And in the end, Boras only makes the most for his players if they actually sign. "If you don't give my player the moon, he'll, uh, he'll uh, go play in Venezuela for nickles. Or go to college, and maybe make less money in two years. Yeah, that'll show you."

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Kevin Goldstein

Under the rules of the new CBA, Bubba Starling is an option QB at Nebraska, never to be seen on a diamond again.

I'm also not so sure about this. Starling would still be passing up a multi-million dollar contract. The line drawn now on whether these kids are going to attend college or play pro baseball is based on what Boras or another agent thinks they can get from teams. I think for most 1st round picks this changes where the line is drawn rather than guarantees they're going to play football.

IMO this has a larger impact on rounds 2 and on than it does the first.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Kemp over Braun...was it that difficult? Are we really giving an individual award out for team success?

Are you new to awards?

[lungs]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Kemp over Braun...was it that difficult? Are we really giving an individual award out for team success?

I'm a homer, but really, is Braun over Kemp that much of a travesty? It's not like they gave MVP to Yuniesky Betancourt.

[ISiddiqui]

In addition there will ALWAYS be a debate over what "Most Valuable" means.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lungs

I'm a homer, but really, is Braun over Kemp that much of a travesty? It's not like they gave MVP to Yuniesky Betancourt.

I wouldn't say it's a travesty, no. And given the value of RBIs is near worthless and average is limited, as to the real value of a hitter.

All that said, Kemp nearly won the Triple Crown and almost had a 40-40 season for a team that, as it turns out, did end up above .500, if not in the playoffs. IMO, Kemp should have been given this award.

[dawgfan]

I'd have gone with Kemp too, but Braun isn't a bad choice.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

The ridiculous thing is that this will most affect the smaller market teams that succeed. Punished for their success.

Hell, it punishes teams like KC that don't even succeed on a major league level but has managed to build a good farm system through overpaying in the draft.

I really can't predict what teams will do because of the 10% over penalty. Do you really load up one year and just assume the next year will suck?

SI

[sterlingice]

Other CBA Points:

* I think game 162 this year pushed the 1 game playoff over the top. I think it's a good thing, but in the AL how does it just not become another AL East team? I do like that it really puts a renewed emphasis on winning the division, tho.

* Draft picks to minor league contracts is nice- the "rush a super hyped prospect because you had to give them a MLB contract" was crap. It was typically to the detriment of everyone not named Scott Boras because the player and team were both rushed.

* The minimum minor league salary will be $81K in 2014? And it was already $67K? I don't want to hear any more crap about "minor leaguers subsisting on fast food or crap. It's not a bad change.

* I'm curious what the international pools look like. Until then, I'm reserving judgement

* "The 15 teams in the largest markets will be disqualified from receiving revenue sharing by 2016." Seems fair to me

* No begging out of All-Star game seems good as does removing low-density maple bats

* HGH testing- nice job of MLB to get out in front of that

SI

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Other CBA Points:

* I think game 162 this year pushed the 1 game playoff over the top. I think it's a good thing, but in the AL how does it just not become another AL East team? I do like that it really puts a renewed emphasis on winning the division, tho.

* Draft picks to minor league contracts is nice- the "rush a super hyped prospect because you had to give them a MLB contract" was crap. It was typically to the detriment of everyone not named Scott Boras because the player and team were both rushed.

* The minimum minor league salary will be $81K in 2014? And it was already $67K? I don't want to hear any more crap about "minor leaguers subsisting on fast food or crap. It's not a bad change.

* I'm curious what the international pools look like. Until then, I'm reserving judgement

* "The 15 teams in the largest markets will be disqualified from receiving revenue sharing by 2016." Seems fair to me

* No begging out of All-Star game seems good as does removing low-density maple bats

* HGH testing- nice job of MLB to get out in front of that

SI

That $67k is for guys who are on the 40-man roster for consecutive years or have at least one day of MLB service time, I believe. I don't think Joe Average who got drafted in the 17th round and isn't on the 40-man makes anything like $67,500.

[stevew]

My one co-worker's brother had a cup of coffee with the Yankees once upon a time. He keeps toiling every year, cause its not like you're going to find a job paying anywhere near the AAAA rates.

[rowech]

I think what's funny is all the discussion a pitcher getting the MVP award gets but screw a guy who put up one of the best seasons since the early 90s (minus all the steroid seasons) and nobody votes for him. Dodgers are in last place without him.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by rowech

I think what's funny is all the discussion a pitcher getting the MVP award gets but screw a guy who put up one of the best seasons since the early 90s (minus all the steroid seasons) and nobody votes for him. Dodgers are in last place without him.

I know a lot of people are gaga over Kemp's season and it is impressive but so was Ryan Braun's.

avg / obp / slg
.324 / .399 / .586 Kemp
.332 / .397 / .597 Braun

wOBA was .433 to .419 Braun
WAR 8.7 to 7.8 Kemp

I don't see how this is anything but a coin flip and Braun was on the much more winning team and I realize that opens up the "what is the definition of most valuable player" can of worms.

By what definition is this the most valuable season since the early 90s and how did you determine which are the steroid seasons to remove?

SI

[jbergey22]

I think the Kemp/Braun discussion is that classic case. Kemp was more valuable however it was CLOSE enough that they chose to give it to the player on the team that made the playoffs.

[Easy Mac]

Reading Cliff Corcoran on SI.com, and he seems to be trying to argue the sabermetric angle for why Kemp should have won. He has the following paragraph.

Kemp's teammates did have one impact on his actual production. Hitting ahead of the likes of James Loney (45 times), Juan Uribe (41 times), Juan Rivera (15 times) and Aaron Miles (19 times), Kemp was intentionally walked 24 times, while Braun, hitting ahead of Fielder, was intentionally walked just twice. One could argue, then, that Kemp's on-base percentage was inflated (it was .377 in his other 655 plate appearances). Then again, Kemp still managed to lead the league in runs despite having that motley crew attempting to drive him in.

Now obviously, he's not arguing RBIs here, which most statistical oriented watchers seem to agree are overrated.

However, he does seem to be arguing runs.

My hang up is, he seems to be arguing that Kemp was better because he scored more runs than Braun. How is it that RBIs are devalued, but runs aren't, at least from a statistical viewpoint.

Isn't being able to score, outside of home runs, highly dependent on your teammates?

I understand he's saying that Kemp scoring runs with a crappy offense around him is more impressive than Braun scoring runs, but based on my math, Braun scored 44.5% of the times he reached base. Kemp scored 42.7% of the times he reached base. As they reached base about 250 times, that means Braun scored 4 more runs based on the players around him than Kemp did. That would essentially make their gap in runs scored 10 as opposed to 6, which in the grand scheme of things is 1 run every game and a half as opposed to every 2 and a half.

I guess I just don't see how citing a player scoring more is indicative of that player being better, when your teammates ability to drive you in would have to be just as important.

[Logan]

I think even non-SABR people know that runs are dependent on the guys after you; if he really used that after previously arguing with advanced stats, I think it's just a shitty article.

[Chief Rum]

I realize Braun got a GG in LF, but Kemp also played a tougher defensive position (CF) and stole a lot more bases.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I know a lot of people are gaga over Kemp's season and it is impressive but so was Ryan Braun's.

avg / obp / slg
.324 / .399 / .586 Kemp
.332 / .397 / .597 Braun

wOBA was .433 to .419 Braun
WAR 8.7 to 7.8 Kemp

I don't see how this is anything but a coin flip and Braun was on the much more winning team and I realize that opens up the "what is the definition of most valuable player" can of worms.

By what definition is this the most valuable season since the early 90s and how did you determine which are the steroid seasons to remove?

SI

Where are you getting your WAR numbers? I've got Kemp with 10.0 to 7.7 for Braun. It is the highest WAR in the league since Barry Bonds in 2004.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Where are you getting your WAR numbers? I've got Kemp with 10.0 to 7.7 for Braun. It is the highest WAR in the league since Barry Bonds in 2004.

Fangraphs.

I dont completely have it figured out but it seems like Fangraphs uses some type of adjustment for players BABIP. Kemp had a .380 BABIP which many consider extremely lucky.

I havent decided if I agree with throwing a penalty on a player that may have caught a few breaks on the year.

[ISiddiqui]

The big issue with WAR - Fangraphs and Baseball-reference calculate it completely differently.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Fangraphs.

I dont completely have it figured out but it seems like Fangraphs uses some type of adjustment for players BABIP. Kemp had a .380 BABIP which many consider extremely lucky.

I havent decided if I agree with throwing a penalty on a player that may have caught a few breaks on the year.

Ah, I see. Kemp does have a higher line drive rate (23.2% to 20.9%).

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Ah, I see. Kemp does have a higher line drive rate (23.2% to 20.9%).

Kemp is very interesting when it comes to these numbers. He has been well above league average in all but the 2010 season. His .352 career mark leads me to believe there is more to his much higher than "norm" BABIP(21.5% career line drive rate) than just luck.

As far back as 08 certain people were expecting his numbers to fall for this very reason but its been mostly the same thing with him. High Ks, low walks, high BABIP.

[MrBug708]

Ed Wade fired as Astros GM is devastating blow to Philadelphia Phillies dreams of getting back to the World Series.

[molson]

Boston.com and ESPN say Bobby Valentine to Boston. Edging out Gene LaMont in a 2-man race I certainly did not see coming.

I think he'll be extremely popular and pretty successful for a while until the inevitable implosion. Certainly, he'll be entertaining.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Ed Wade fired as Astros GM is devastating blow to Philadelphia Phillies dreams of getting back to the World Series.

IIRC Wade was hired by the Astros because he was the only GM candidate they brought in that didn't tell them they needed to rebuild. Hard to tell how much hiring him set that franchise back.

I'm happy to see Bobby V getting another shot at managing.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by molson

Boston.com and ESPN say Bobby Valentine to Boston. Edging out Gene LaMont in a 2-man race I certainly did not see coming.

I think he'll be extremely popular and pretty successful for a while until the inevitable implosion. Certainly, he'll be entertaining.

As a Mets fan I found the whole process interesting involving Bobby V. And I've always thought he was a brilliant manager - just, apparently, a complete pain in the ass to deal with.

[Coffee Warlord]

First signing of Theo The Messiah's reign is...

David DeJesus.

[DanGarion]

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by molson

Boston.com and ESPN say Bobby Valentine to Boston. Edging out Gene LaMont in a 2-man race I certainly did not see coming.

I think he'll be extremely popular and pretty successful for a while until the inevitable implosion. Certainly, he'll be entertaining.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

As a Mets fan I found the whole process interesting involving Bobby V. And I've always thought he was a brilliant manager - just, apparently, a complete pain in the ass to deal with.

Yeah I think it was a good job by Boston. They needed someone that will get the veterans respect right away which I think Valentine will get. He will also be a little tougher on the underproducing talent where as Francona seemed a bit too loyal.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

First signing of Theo The Messiah's reign is...

David DeJesus.

Which is a classic Theo like (or if you'd like Moneyball type) move:

David DeJesus Signs With Cubs, Epstein | FanGraphs Baseball

It appears that despite the move to the Windy City, Theo Epstein hasn’t lost his touch. In his first move since joining the Cubs as their General Manager, Epstein signed David DeJesus to a two year, $10 million contract today. The contract also has an option for a third year.

Just by taking a glance at DeJesus’ player page, it’s easy to fall in love with this deal. DeJesus is no star outfielder and his name doesn’t conjure up images of diving catches or towering home runs, but he’s a quietly productive and underrated player. He’s no whiz with the bat — .277/.349/.417 line over the last three years, which translates to a .334 wOBA and 5% above average — but he makes up for it by being an above average baserunner and defensive outfielder. DeJesus played the majority of the 2011 season in right field for the Athletics, and depending on what defensive stat you trust most, he was anywhere from a +10 to +13 fielder out there. He had one of his worst seasons at the plate last year — .309 wOBA, 5% below average — but even then, he managed to be a 2.2 WAR player in right.

So on the face of things, the Cubs just got a great deal. They signed an average outfielder to a below-market rate contract — they’re paying him like he’s a 1.0 WAR outfielder, essentially — and they filled their hole in right field. They also improved their team overall, as DeJesus is an improvement over 34-years-old-and-sinking-fast Kosuke Fokudome.

[Logan]

Good for DeJesus, a Rutgers grad and Manalapan, NJ kid.

[DaddyTorgo]

I for one am looking forward to Bobby V. coming in and kicking some entitled-players asses I hope.

I've really got very little love for most of the guys on this team (outside of Dusty and Jacoby I guess - still too early to tell with AGon and whether Crawford will ever adjust). I would have said Lester, but it appears he may have been corrupted by Beckett/Lackey. I guess Bucholz still.

So I hope Bobby V. kicks the shit outa them and really lights this place up. I don't care if we have to endure another year or two finishing out of the playoffs - it'd be worth it to get a real team back.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

...I don't care if we have to endure another year or two finishing out of the playoffs - it'd be worth it to get a real team back.

Will Valentine last much longer than a couple of years without a playoff appearance? Doubtful, especially with the expectations from that fanbase (much like those in NY).

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Will Valentine last much longer than a couple of years without a playoff appearance? Doubtful, especially with the expectations from that fanbase (much like those in NY).

I think he's probably got a 2-3 year shelf life even under the best of circumstances frankly. But I think his attitude and "straightening things out" could have repercussions beyond his tenure.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

- still too early to tell with AGon and whether Crawford will ever adjust).

Didnt AGon have an incredible year? IMO he adjusted quite nicely. He didnt put up the power that was maybe expected but his OBP was a career best.

EDIT
When reading it again it doesnt appear you were actually talking about whether or not he will adjust but whether or not you will show a little love for instead.

[RomaGoth]

Uh oh. Looks like drama already starting up in Beantown. Of course, some of this is probably ESPN trying to make more of something than what actually exists, but still......

Source -- Bobby Valentine type not for Boston Red Sox early - ESPN Boston

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Uh oh. Looks like drama already starting up in Beantown. Of course, some of this is probably ESPN trying to make more of something than what actually exists, but still......

Source -- Bobby Valentine type not for Boston Red Sox early - ESPN Boston

Not surprising. A few of the prima donna's are already upset that they hired someone that may force them to work a little harder.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Didnt AGon have an incredible year? IMO he adjusted quite nicely. He didnt put up the power that was maybe expected but his OBP was a career best.

EDIT
When reading it again it doesnt appear you were actually talking about whether or not he will adjust but whether or not you will show a little love for instead.

Your EDIT is right. AGon has adjusted well, but still too early to tell how much love I'll show for him. He was bitching a bit last season about some of the travel due to the schedule and all. So we'll see if that was a one-off or if it magnifies.

[molson]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Uh oh. Looks like drama already starting up in Beantown. Of course, some of this is probably ESPN trying to make more of something than what actually exists, but still......

Source -- Bobby Valentine type not for Boston Red Sox early - ESPN Boston

HA - that makes this hire look even better. He's exactly what they need.

Hey Red Sox, if you showed up ready to play earlier than late-April, and didn't take September off, you'd still have Francona and your Poppyes Chicken/Bud Light in-game parties.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

HA - that makes this hire look even better. He's exactly what they need.

Hey Red Sox, if you showed up ready to play earlier than late-April, and didn't take September off, you'd still have Francona and your Poppyes Chicken/Bud Light in-game parties.

Agreed. Fuck them all.

Cept for the 3-4 I mentioned who were decent, and the Reddick/Kalish type of like...AAAA guys.

[Chief Rum]

DiPoto makes a solid first move for the Angels, imo, by trading one of our surplus SP prospect arms in Tyler Chatwood to the Rockies for Chris Iannetta. Iannetta isn't ever going to be a stud at the plate or behind it, but he's good enough at both to be a significant overall upgrade at the Angels' worst position. It will be nice to not have an absolute zero in the lineup at that spot (I am looking at you, Jeff Mathis).

Obviously, it always hurts to lose good young pitching, but I much prefer to lose Chatwood over Richards or Bell. Chatwood had a solid start to last year, but faded in the second half. That could be because he's just young and not used to the workload, but it's also quite likely that teams were figuring him out. He has less stuff than the other two and had some control issues last year. Basically a 1:1 BB:K ratio and only some 4-5 K/9.

I expect that Jeff Mathis will be non-tendered and Conger will spend more time at AAA, with Bobby Wilson backing up Iannetta, at least to start the season.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I for one am looking forward to Bobby V. coming in and kicking some entitled-players asses I hope.

I've really got very little love for most of the guys on this team (outside of Dusty and Jacoby I guess - still too early to tell with AGon and whether Crawford will ever adjust). I would have said Lester, but it appears he may have been corrupted by Beckett/Lackey. I guess Bucholz still.

So I hope Bobby V. kicks the shit outa them and really lights this place up. I don't care if we have to endure another year or two finishing out of the playoffs - it'd be worth it to get a real team back.

I have no words here. This is when Red Sox fans have become Yankee fans.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

I have no words here. This is when DaddyTorgo have become Yankee fans.

.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

.

Point.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

.

^
I had no words there.