Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am not voting you because you gave ideas yesterday. In fact I gave you many chances to elaborate and you ignored most of those points, either disappearing from the thread or just not responding to the questions.

I've been pretty clear on why I'm voting you. The only question in my head was if I was going to vote you or Fouts

No, you're voting me because I had votes yesterday. And why did I have votes yesterday? hmmmmm

And you still haven't explained about hoops.

[Lathum]

I've seen this game from AlanT before and I don't trust him one bit. My vote was for St.Cronin yesterday and I am sticking with it today but IF he is lynched AND he comes up good I am all over AlanT tomorrow.

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[Lathum]

dola- ntn, care to explain your vote.

[st.cronin]

vote Lathum

I'm fairly comfortable with this vote. I know he's not the police chief, so there's the better than decent chance that he's either Umbrella or zombie.

I imagine there will be some information coming out about last night at some point.

[Alan T]

Thinking things through more, I now realize that if Fouts is bad, it doesn't necessarily mean St.Cronin and hoops are good. I originally was going to vote for Fouts to set up that circle of trust, but realizing later, that there are holes in that.

I can't find any really good ties that one's being bad clears the other, so its very possible both are bad. I'm just pretty sure at least one is.

[LoneStarGirl]

Alan I dont believe your theory at all. What if both cronin and fouts are good and the police cheif had no choice but to vote for one of the three? Would he vote for bullet because he had the most votes? Or what if he just enney meeny miny moed to get bullet because he didn't want to cast a vote onto somebody who had no votes because that would put suspicion on him...

[Mr. Wednesday]

I disagree somewhat with Alan's thesis for how the chief would have played yesterday. I think there's an optimum play for two STARS set against one another that he hasn't stated.

[LoneStarGirl]

I think NTN just pulled Fout's name out of his ass and now we are suspicious about him with no real proof

[Lathum]

off to work now. MY vote is subject to change if any night info comes out.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Alan I dont believe your theory at all. What if both cronin and fouts are good and the police cheif had no choice but to vote for one of the three? Would he vote for bullet because he had the most votes? Or what if he just enney meeny miny moed to get bullet because he didn't want to cast a vote onto somebody who had no votes because that would put suspicion on him...

Well for everyone who's saying that, give me a better candidate than Fouts or St. Cronin.

Right now it seems pretty obvious that Lathum is trying to protect Fouts to me. And it seems the pretty much best move they could have made is to try to help us gain clues along the way.

Usually day 2 is all about the well Player X from day 1 who was lynched was good, so now lets look at players A, B, C, D , E and F to see who it is and it gets us no where.

I'm giving us a player based on percentages. Just think about what I am saying a little bit...

Based on -nothing- else I think we have an approximate 43-47% chance of hitting a bad guy. Almost 50/50 based on nothing more than flipping a coin. Now I'm trying to narrow that down using reasonable deductive reasoning and give us a narrowed selection to look at based on what is a logical progression.

just for arguement sake, even if I am completely and utterly and entirely wrong.. we still have almost a 50/50 shot of being right choosing anyone right now.

[KWhit]

Well that was quick. Y'all have fun.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well for everyone who's saying that, give me a better candidate than Fouts or St. Cronin.

For starters, you.

[Lathum]

ok, now i am really off, but alan, c'mon. why would i attempt to protect fouts at this point? he has had virtually no heat except from you and no one has even voted for him. gimme some credit...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I disagree somewhat with Alan's thesis for how the chief would have played yesterday. I think there's an optimum play for two STARS set against one another that he hasn't stated.

There is alot about my thesis that I haven't stated yet because its stuff that I don't necessarily think the bad guys would have caught yet.

The only things I have talked about today are things that are right out in the open and I would be very suprised to see them not have followed the same line of thinking already. So my bringing it out into the open only helps the good guys by making sure everyone is aware of it and not just the bad guys when determining who to vote for today.

I can think of all kinds of scenerios possibly still in play that I am not discussing. But based on probability, I think the best play is St.Cronin. Based on gut feel, I think the best vote is Fouts. Based on strategic maneuvering, I think the best vote is Fouts. I just currently am not sure which of the two I will end up going with at the end of the day.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

For starters, you.

Then vote for me and give your reasons why you are voting for me. Thats what this game is about Its a pretty foolish move I think and its not looking at this vote mathematically to vote for me, but hey its your vote to do with as you wish so if you think I'm honestly the day's best choice go with your gut

[Tyrith]

Alan is venturing into the same zone cronin was in yesterday, where he's tossing out ideas that are interesting but not necessarily correct...I'm very much conflicted at this point. In the next day or two we're gonna have to kill one of them just to figure out where we stand in this whole game, I think, unless we start getting some more evidence.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Alan is venturing into the same zone cronin was in yesterday, where he's tossing out ideas that are interesting but not necessarily correct...I'm very much conflicted at this point. In the next day or two we're gonna have to kill one of them just to figure out where we stand in this whole game, I think, unless we start getting some more evidence.

You have to wait till tommorrow to lynch me. Day 3 is Alan T lynch day. So for today, try to choose from one of the other 15 players to choose!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

vote Lathum

I'm fairly comfortable with this vote. I know he's not the police chief, so there's the better than decent chance that he's either Umbrella or zombie.

I imagine there will be some information coming out about last night at some point.

Yesterday you followed him on a vote with the supposition that he was the police chief. So what has changed? I knew he wasn't the Chief yesterday when he voted for me early, but how do you now have this info?

Also, Lathum making the argument that he will follow on Cronin today, but then be all over Alan T tomorrow has the sound of someone who may be on the same team as Fouts and want to buy a couple of days here with people moving in directions other than towards him and/or Fouts.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Then vote for me and give your reasons why you are voting for me. Thats what this game is about Its a pretty foolish move I think and its not looking at this vote mathematically to vote for me, but hey its your vote to do with as you wish so if you think I'm honestly the day's best choice go with your gut

I learned in your game that things are never as they seem. I want to vote for you based on the fact that I thik your theory is bunk. You're pushing for it a great deal and that is a red flag for me. I'm not going to let that influence how I vote though. I am going to wait on that.

I decided on a strategy to follow in the early game yesterday and I am going to stick to it for now. It didn't work out with bullet being a good guy, but it narrows down my choices for today. I just need to see how things develop today.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yesterday you followed him on a vote with the supposition that he was the police chief. So what has changed? I knew he wasn't the Chief yesterday when he voted for me early, but how do you now have this info?

Also, Lathum making the argument that he will follow on Cronin today, but then be all over Alan T tomorrow has the sound of someone who may be on the same team as Fouts and want to buy a couple of days here with people moving in directions other than towards him and/or Fouts.

That was my reaction too about Lathum which I commented on. His response is i have to give him more credit than that.

[Tyrith]

Cronin lynch doesn't really excite me that much. An easy lynch with no evidence, against a vet? I think cronin was just being cronin.

Alan's analysis for the chief's actions day one is flawed because I can definately see the chief dumping his vote if it was STARS v. STARS, which I'm starting to think is pretty likely.

That leaves Alan. Alan lynch doesn't thrill me either, but I certainly see him being bad. For now, I'm just gonna sit here.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I learned in your game that things are never as they seem. I want to vote for you based on the fact that I thik your theory is bunk. You're pushing for it a great deal and that is a red flag for me. I'm not going to let that influence how I vote though. I am going to wait on that.

I decided on a strategy to follow in the early game yesterday and I am going to stick to it for now. It didn't work out with bullet being a good guy, but it narrows down my choices for today. I just need to see how things develop today.

Well for whatever its worth, my initial strategy was going to be vote for the less contributing players (not necessarily dictated by post count, but moreso based on what they brought to the table to defend their points to bring up new points etc.. or if they just slid by UtR). I was going to just vote for each UtR person until some kind of evidence showed up one way or another.

But decided to change it last night based on day 1.

[Alan T]

Next game I'm going to just do one post every day (my vote) and day 6 when people call me out for it, I'll use the schmidty gambit

[Alan T]

What I think would be funny is if between Fouts and St.Cronin one is a zombie and one is umbrella and both sides are hemming and hawing about how to play it. And join up as a common goal to just eliminate me instead to save their boys.

[Tyrith]

Sigh, right now is that if we kill fouts/cronin today it doesn't really tell us anything about Alan directly because of the nature of his theory. Somehow we have to start unraveling these psuedo-alliances today, but I really don't know where to start pulling the thread.

[path12]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I think NTN just pulled Fout's name out of his ass and now we are suspicious about him with no real proof

LSG, I don't think anyone has suspicions about NTN being bad at this point, I think some of us are just a little frustrated that the police chief may have been outed.

Lathum & cronin, I'm curious why, if you're so convinced that Alan is wrong, why your votes didn't go on him?

I have to get a couple things done this morning, but will also go back through the day 1 posts and take a look for myself before I throw out any votes.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

How?

KWhit voted first for BrianD, then for me. Do you think the bad guys thought he was the police chief? That would make me and BrianD bad, if it were true.

Or what do you think their strategy was?

Thinking more about this, I wonder if one of the following is true:

1) The bad guys killed kwhit knowing both St.Cronin and BrianD were bad and thinking it highly possible that Kwhit could have been the chief.

2) BrianD not being on their team, the bad guys figure that we'll figure out the same thing they know about the Chief and this would draw suspicion on BrianD.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I've got another theory on what the Chief did yesterday but I have zero desire to discuss it in public at this time as it could draw unwanted attention.

Nothing at all interesting here in terms of night results and based on the check-in posts so far I haven't heard anything to help us with our play today other than yesterday's votes and player interaction.

I'm very interested in what Cronin's answer is to the question I asked.

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, are we going to get role information on death or is it strictly faction? Based on my reading of the rules it would suggest roles but the results of the first two kills just coming up STARS leads me to ask the question.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

LSG, I don't think anyone has suspicions about NTN being bad at this point, I think some of us are just a little frustrated that the police chief may have been outed.

Lathum & cronin, I'm curious why, if you're so convinced that Alan is wrong, why your votes didn't go on him?

I have to get a couple things done this morning, but will also go back through the day 1 posts and take a look for myself before I throw out any votes.

Looking through all of this the first mistake I made last night was thinking it very likely Ntn was the chief. but after reading through all of the posts from about 10 different people yesterday I realized this isn't true.

Its possible ntn is the chief, but I highly doubt it. I think people are overthinking a bit on the whole "oh my goodness you're going to out the chief" aspect of this. Yes my post probably helped narrow down 7 likely choices for him.. but if you think the bad guys hadn't already done that themselves you're probably fooling yourself right now.

I'm pretty sure early bad game strategy involves:

1) Finding someone to convert
2) Figuring out who important roles are (Chief, bodyguard, seers, etc)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I've got another theory on what the Chief did yesterday but I have zero desire to discuss it in public at this time as it could draw unwanted attention.

Nothing at all interesting here in terms of night results and based on the check-in posts so far I haven't heard anything to help us with our play today other than yesterday's votes and player interaction.

I'm very interested in what Cronin's answer is to the question I asked.

Yeah I am fine with not discussing all aspects of the Chief play. I am definitly holding some things close to my vest.

I am finding various people's reactions quite interesting today though so far.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thinking more about this, I wonder if one of the following is true:

1) The bad guys killed kwhit knowing both St.Cronin and BrianD were bad and thinking it highly possible that Kwhit could have been the chief.

2) BrianD not being on their team, the bad guys figure that we'll figure out the same thing they know about the Chief and this would draw suspicion on BrianD.

I'm obviously looking at the second option here. I think the zombies probably took out KWhit since they knew this would put suspicion on me...which is good for them.

I'm really curious about the Ntndeacon vote. Being the only lone vote seems odd given the rules that we have. I could see where he might be trying to tell us something, but it also makes him way too visible.

[Alan T]

Ok once again, you all are reading way too much into the ntndeacon vote.

At the time, the voting was:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)

So it wasn't some throw away vote on a third person to give some secret clue.

It made the Hoops 2, cronin 1, Bullet 1, Fouts 1.

[hoopsguy]

KWhit - initially votes BrianD, moves it to Cronin
Bullet - no post, no vote, nothing to work with

Possible, if there are not role reveals on death, that KWhit was the Police Chief.

Suspects at the moment for me:
Lathum - early day 1 vote for me, vote ended on Bullet, concern about his positioning today
Cronin - early day 1 vote for me, vote ended on Bullet, final vote by KWhit
Fouts - drew vote from NTN, supports Alan's theory on Chief actions
BrianD - initial vote from KWhit, vote ended on Bullet

I have noted that I'm suspicious of AlanT in a pretty big way, but I'm not ready to gun for him quite yet mainly because there is not any trail for him like there are for the four above players.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ok once again, you all are reading way too much into the ntndeacon vote.

At the time, the voting was:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)

So it wasn't some throw away vote on a third person to give some secret clue.

It made the Hoops 2, cronin 1, Bullet 1, Fouts 1.

It is important to look at the circumstances of the vote, but it is also worth looking at what happened after the vote. Why did that vote not change? Was Ntn not around, or was there a reason he didn't want to move to the other two?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

KWhit - initially votes BrianD, moves it to Cronin
Bullet - no post, no vote, nothing to work with

Possible, if there are not role reveals on death, that KWhit was the Police Chief.

Rules posts says that there are role reveals on death.

[hoopsguy]

Answers from Cronin and Chubby will help me with assessing how seriously to look at these four players.

- if there are complete role reveals on death then BrianD is off the hook for today
- Cronin's answer will definitely impact my thoughts on his fitness level for lynching

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chubby, are we going to get role information on death or is it strictly faction? Based on my reading of the rules it would suggest roles but the results of the first two kills just coming up STARS leads me to ask the question.

The answer to this question is in the rules

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

It is important to look at the circumstances of the vote, but it is also worth looking at what happened after the vote. Why did that vote not change? Was Ntn not around, or was there a reason he didn't want to move to the other two?

Ntn's last post of the day before the deadline was #217. At that time it was Hoops with 2 votes and I think 4 different people with 1 vote (including yourself).

The run on St.Cronin actually only started after you received a vote from Kwhit.

I said many things yesterday were interesting to me. I've drilled down on some, but not on others. Like I said there are a few things that makes you suspicious in my eyes, but I know it could very easily be a frame job too.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Chubby

The answer to this question is in the rules

Chub is obviously a Zombie sympathizer.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, that is how I read it as well. I'm just asking Chubby to confirm that we have two vanilla STARS as the first two dead people.

[Tyrith]

I don't see what the problem was then, personally. I think there were 11 (11-5-3) STARS at the start; that means we probably have five vanillas. Getting two isn't terribly likely but not insane or anything.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, that is how I read it as well. I'm just asking Chubby to confirm that we have two vanilla STARS as the first two dead people.

from the way he responded I think thats what I am assuming. They both were vanilla stars roles.

Which helps BrianD's case some, but I don't really have him in mind as a target for today anyways. Just was talking about what I felt about him since the question was asked.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ntn's last post of the day before the deadline was #217. At that time it was Hoops with 2 votes and I think 4 different people with 1 vote (including yourself).

The run on St.Cronin actually only started after you received a vote from Kwhit.

I said many things yesterday were interesting to me. I've drilled down on some, but not on others. Like I said there are a few things that makes you suspicious in my eyes, but I know it could very easily be a frame job too.

If that is the case (I haven't gone back to check), it would seem like NTN's vote may have just been random and he never got back to do anything else with it. Like I said, it would put a lot of attention on him if he was out there alone knowingly, but it was worth looking at.

I can understand your suspicion of me. I think it was smart of the bad guys to see the opening created by KWhit and pile on to enhance the suspicion.

[hoopsguy]

OK, then drop BrianD for today and return to Lathum, Cronin, and Fouts as the people I would be looking at the hardest.

I'll probably hold off on a vote until Fouts arrives this afternoon - he is usually a mid-afternoon arrival in WW games.

Alan, if you want to talk through some scenarios I'm game for the next hour or so.

[hoopsguy]

Going from memory, NTN was back viewing the thread yesterday before the deadline. He had the opportunity to move his vote to one of the leading vote-getters but he did not opt to do so.

[Glengoyne]

So we know that Kwhit voted for Cronin and BrianD. Does that give us anything to go on? Do wolves go for people who are outright mentioning them in conversation? That seems to lead too much of a trail for us to follow, but I think fouts was going after a wolf when he got killed in Tombstone.

I'm glad Alan has reanalyzed his position, because I'm pretty confident that if I were the chief I would pile on to someone to hide my vote. A vote for a lynched player is simply cover at that point. It is a missed opportunity to "out" someone, but I think it is more important for the chief to not paint a target on his back and stay in the game.

I'll be in and out of contact today to take a closer look at the likely suspects, but right now, I don't feel like I have more than an inkling of which way to go.

[Tyrith]

I don't think we can take anything out of KWhit's vote. He thought Brian was slightly suspicious because of a small thing he said, then he jumped back into our planned 2 man race. Seems like a perfectly normal I-don't-know-jack villager play D1.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Just for reference... and this should answer hoopsguy's question about how st.cronin claims to know that Lathum isn't the chief.

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thats what I have also. Here is the voting path of the day:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)
(190) Kwhit votes BrianD (1)
(235) Anxiety votes St.Cronin (2)
(246) Lathum UNVOTES Hoopsguy (1) ***
(246) Lathum votes St.cronin (3)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(278) Kwhit UNVOTES BrianD (0) ***
(278) Kwhit votes Stcronin (4)
(279) Path votes Stcronin (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(290) Lonestargirl votes St.cronin (6)
(308) Glengoyne votes Bulletsponge (9)
(313) Chief Rum votes Lathum (1)
(316) St.Cronin UNVOTES Hoopsguy (0) ***
(316) St.cronin votes Bulletsponge (10)
(318) Chief Rum UNVOTES Lathum (0) ***
(343) Chief Rum votes Bulletsponge (11)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, then drop BrianD for today and return to Lathum, Cronin, and Fouts as the people I would be looking at the hardest.

I'll probably hold off on a vote until Fouts arrives this afternoon - he is usually a mid-afternoon arrival in WW games.

Alan, if you want to talk through some scenarios I'm game for the next hour or so.

Im pretty open to talking through stuff while Im here at work. So far I feel I've done alot of the talking and everyone else is either bashing my ideas or just waiting to see more without giving much in the way of thoughts themselves.

I'm really interested in hearing what others have to say other than the typical "He just feels like he is playing as a wolf this game" which doesnt do much for conversations