Werewolf LXII -- The BCS (Racer and Swaggs win)

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Schedule team 42


We are Notre Dame are sensitive towards Indian tribes that are classlessly used as sports mascots. Even though the Chesapeake tribe has likely been destroyed for 300+ years, I feel that their memory should be preserved. Thus:

Vote Chesapeake

We at the University of Falls Church (UFC) are deeply sensitive to the plight of Native Americans, which is why our mascot is the Crushers, not the Chesapeakes. UFC would also like to note that the University continues to urge the NFL's Washington Redskins, the last NFL team to integrate, to change the most offensive name in all of American sports.

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

VOTE JEHEINZ72

Simply on the theory that he has the largest lead over the last place team in his conference of anyone, and it might be to our advantage to make that gap closer.

I disagree entirely. A wolf in first place -- especially if 2nd is miles away -- is virtually toothless. Villagers can't lose the game to one of them.

It still appears to me that the wolves are trying to maneuver Molson into the at large spot in my conference.

vote Molson

[molson]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Challenge Molson

If molson doesn't accept
Challenge Team 50

Oh no you didn't.

ACCEPT BARKEEP

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

PUBLIC POLL

1. Jeheinz72
2. Molson
3. Chesapeake
4. Lathum
5. Path

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

I disagree entirely. A wolf in first place -- especially if 2nd is miles away -- is virtually toothless. Villagers can't lose the game to one of them.

It still appears to me that the wolves are trying to maneuver Molson into the at large spot in my conference.

vote Molson

You think jeheinz is a wolf?

[st.cronin]

dola, and that's obviously not true even if jeheinz is a wolf, he could easily throw as many games as he needs to get to second.

Not that I feel very strongly about sanctions either way, but that's just a wrong argument, unless you know something we don't.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Did Passacaglia say there wasn't going to be any weekend play, or am I imagining that?

yeah, he said no weekend play

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Did Passacaglia say there wasn't going to be any weekend play, or am I imagining that?

That's right. Day 5 ends Monday, 2 PM Central, since I'll be in Grand Rapids for Hanukkah.

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola, and that's obviously not true even if jeheinz is a wolf, he could easily throw as many games as he needs to get to second.

Not that I feel very strongly about sanctions either way, but that's just a wrong argument, unless you know something we don't.

All I know is what the math tells me.

A combination of 150 points needs to change hands for jeheinz to drop to 2nd. As the season progresses and the divisor increases, picking up lots of points is difficult AND the teams in his conference are going to have a very hard time beating him unless games get thrown.

Other teams in jeheinz's conference have 23, 0 and -10 PPs. Unless we start throwing sanctions at him, no one in that conference is going to catch him unless the wolves start throwing all their sabotage points at him. And, ultimately, that does them no good. Taking that may points away from him would probably take him out of the running for the at-large berth, anyway. Also, if jeheinz is the wolf, we can hit him with sanctions when and if it becomes a reasonable play.

So my point is, you can stick a fork in that conference. It is done. If jeheinz is the wolf, he is out of reach of the rest of the division. If any of the other 3 players are the wolf, they are way out of the race for the at-large berth anyway.

So I return to my main point: Lathum was cleared by RendeR, Path (formerly Alan T) did enough anti-wolf work earlier in the game that many probably feel like me that he is not a wolf. So my conference wolf is either Molson or myself. I am in first place, and a wolf winning the conference is no threat to the village. Molson is in second and a serious threat to grab the atlarge berth and the game for the wolves. He is the right and timely play.

[chesapeake]

Public Poll
1. jeheinz
2. Mr. W
3. Chesapeake
4. Racer
5. Claphamsa

Schedule Team 40

[SnDvls]

public poll

SnDvls
RendeR
Path
Swaggs
St. Cronin

vote no sancations

[Lathum]

Schedule team 50
Vote Jheinze

[RendeR]

Public Poll:

#1 RendeR (yeah thats right, I', 0-3 and I'm STILL better than you)
#2 Jeheinz
#3 Anxiety
#4 SnDvls
#5 Racer

Schedule Team 75

[ntndeacon]

Vote Molson
Schedule team 60

[ntndeacon]

Public Poll
1. ntndeacon
2. Mr. Wednesday
3. chesapeake
4.claphamsa
5.st.cronin

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

All I know is what the math tells me.

A combination of 150 points needs to change hands for jeheinz to drop to 2nd. As the season progresses and the divisor increases, picking up lots of points is difficult AND the teams in his conference are going to have a very hard time beating him unless games get thrown.

Other teams in jeheinz's conference have 23, 0 and -10 PPs. Unless we start throwing sanctions at him, no one in that conference is going to catch him unless the wolves start throwing all their sabotage points at him. And, ultimately, that does them no good. Taking that may points away from him would probably take him out of the running for the at-large berth, anyway. Also, if jeheinz is the wolf, we can hit him with sanctions when and if it becomes a reasonable play.

So my point is, you can stick a fork in that conference. It is done. If jeheinz is the wolf, he is out of reach of the rest of the division. If any of the other 3 players are the wolf, they are way out of the race for the at-large berth anyway.

So I return to my main point: Lathum was cleared by RendeR, Path (formerly Alan T) did enough anti-wolf work earlier in the game that many probably feel like me that he is not a wolf. So my conference wolf is either Molson or myself. I am in first place, and a wolf winning the conference is no threat to the village. Molson is in second and a serious threat to grab the atlarge berth and the game for the wolves. He is the right and timely play.

If jeheinz is a wolf he can, and likely will, throw some in-conference games. As far as I know that option is open to anybody. If a conference is close, there is, say, a 1/4 chance that the wolves finish 2nd. If a villager is way ahead or way behind, there is a 1/3 chance that the wolves finish 2nd.

In other words, I completely disagree with your analysis.

[path12]

Public poll

1) Lathum
2) jeheinz
3) Chesapeake
4) Molson
5) path12

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

SCHEDULE TEAM 88

[Lathum]

Lathum
Path
Molson
Chesapeak
NTNDeacon

[Mr. Wednesday]

VOTE Molson

[Racer]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

All I know is what the math tells me.

A combination of 150 points needs to change hands for jeheinz to drop to 2nd. As the season progresses and the divisor increases, picking up lots of points is difficult AND the teams in his conference are going to have a very hard time beating him unless games get thrown.

Other teams in jeheinz's conference have 23, 0 and -10 PPs. Unless we start throwing sanctions at him, no one in that conference is going to catch him unless the wolves start throwing all their sabotage points at him. And, ultimately, that does them no good. Taking that may points away from him would probably take him out of the running for the at-large berth, anyway. Also, if jeheinz is the wolf, we can hit him with sanctions when and if it becomes a reasonable play.

So my point is, you can stick a fork in that conference. It is done. If jeheinz is the wolf, he is out of reach of the rest of the division. If any of the other 3 players are the wolf, they are way out of the race for the at-large berth anyway.

So I return to my main point: Lathum was cleared by RendeR, Path (formerly Alan T) did enough anti-wolf work earlier in the game that many probably feel like me that he is not a wolf. So my conference wolf is either Molson or myself. I am in first place, and a wolf winning the conference is no threat to the village. Molson is in second and a serious threat to grab the atlarge berth and the game for the wolves. He is the right and timely play.

If the other teams don't win today, then he will gain virtually no power points in conference play. Teams in your conference have a decent shot of surpassing jeheinz because you guys can gain a lot of power points each conference game you play wheras Jeheinz is probably going to have trouble gaining many more power points after today. I agree that Jeheinz can find a way to finish second if he wants though.

[SnDvls]

just an FYI our conference (it includes jeheintz) has deciced not to have a championship game to prevent one more step that a wolf could throw a game and get the #2 spot. So the final standings will be just that.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Racer

Teams in your conference have a decent shot of surpassing jeheinz because you guys can gain a lot of power points each conference game you play

You're forgetting the increasing power points divisor. They'll be able to get 25%, 20%, and 16% of his points, and that will be going to different teams in turn. Barring sanctions/sabotage, that conference is toast.

[Mr. Wednesday]

SCHEDULE TEAM 35

[Racer]

Also, to everyone voting no sanctions, you're competing just as much against other conferences as you are the wolves and the Catholic Detractors. You lose if another conference wins and you lose if the wolves or Catholic Detractors win. The only difference is that if the conferences work together, we can identify some of the detractors and then we can lower the chances of the wolves winnning or the Catholic Detractors and thus increase the chances of one of the conferences winning. Mr. Wednesday and Claphamsa's conference is just as much as a threat at this point to the other conferences as the wolves and Catholic detractors are.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

You're forgetting the increasing power points divisor. They'll be able to get 25%, 20%, and 16% of his points, and that will be going to different teams in turn. Barring sanctions/sabotage, that conference is toast.

Right, but not until after he plays an opponent who has played an opponent who has already played him which will only occur on the 3rd day of conference games.

[Mr. Wednesday]

PUBLIC POLL:
1. jeheinz72
2. Mr. Wednesday
3. chesapeake
4. claphamsa
5. Chief Rum

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Racer

I agree that Jeheinz can find a way to finish second if he wants though.

It is extremely unlikely statistically that jeheniz could finish second in his conference UNLESS he starts bleeding enormous amounts of points. To just get into the realm of possibility, likely two of his conference mates have to pull off huge upsets. RendeR hitting v. Team 88 would be one, but Sndvls winning today's game (team 40, FYI) probably isn't. Anxiety, starting from 23points today, probably would have to nail a 50 or 60 in addition to RendeR's win.

Sanctioning jeheinz may make sense in future days. It is nothing but a distraction now. The Molson play makes a lot more sense today.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Racer

Right, but not until after he plays an opponent who has played an opponent who has already played him which will only occur on the 3rd day of conference games.

I'm totally not following you here.

My point is that the total number of points available to non-jeheinz teams in the conference, pending results from today, is 106, but less than half of that can go to any one team based on how the divisors work out. The second-place team in that conference is not a realistic threat, and we don't care who wins it aside from the national title implications.

The other conferences (mine included) are the threats.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and either nobody took my advice to look at claphamsa, or they're not talking if they did.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, of that 106 pts, the max that any one team could get I think would be the initial 25% distribution in the first conference game, and they're going to have a very low likelihood of winning the game anyway.

[st.cronin]

Except that the only person saying molson is a wolf is somebody in molson's conference - in other words, somebody who couldn't possibly know that molson is a wolf.

Plus molson's conference is close, so if it turns out molson IS a wolf, there's a lot more options open to us to keep him out of second place.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I'm totally not following you here.

My point is that the total number of points available to non-jeheinz teams in the conference, pending results from today, is 106, but less than half of that can go to any one team based on how the divisors work out. The second-place team in that conference is not a realistic threat, and we don't care who wins it aside from the national title implications.

The other conferences (mine included) are the threats.

Yeah, my post didn't really make any sense. I'm going to wait until after the deadline to explain what I intended to say.

[Racer]

Actually, I don't think I'm going to say what I intended to say in that post although I do understand what you are thinking.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

It is extremely unlikely statistically that jeheniz could finish second in his conference UNLESS he starts bleeding enormous amounts of points. To just get into the realm of possibility, likely two of his conference mates have to pull off huge upsets. RendeR hitting v. Team 88 would be one, but Sndvls winning today's game (team 40, FYI) probably isn't. Anxiety, starting from 23points today, probably would have to nail a 50 or 60 in addition to RendeR's win.

Sanctioning jeheinz may make sense in future days. It is nothing but a distraction now. The Molson play makes a lot more sense today.

To get the at-large bid, he doesn't even need to finish second in his conference. If two teams try to throw the same game, then the team with more power points has a greater chance of successfully throwing that game which means he can pretty much decide avoid finishing first in his conference if he wants (he may have to throw 2 games though). I just think the at-large bid from the conference with Mr. Wednesday and others will probably end up having more power points then jeheniz.

[Racer]

Dang, I am not making any sense in my posts today. Lets try again.

To get the at-large bid, he doesn't even need to finish second in his conference. If two teams try to throw the same game, then the team with more power points has a greater chance of successfully throwing that game which means he can pretty much avoid finishing first in his conference if he wants (he may have to throw 2 games though). I just think the at-large bid from the conference with Mr. Wednesday and others will probably end up having more power points then jeheniz.

[st.cronin]

Racer, if jeheinz is a wolf, isn't he well positioned to get the at-large bid?

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Racer

To get the at-large bid, he doesn't even need to finish second in his conference. If two teams try to throw the same game, then the team with more power points has a greater chance of successfully throwing that game which means he can pretty much decide avoid finishing first in his conference if he wants (he may have to throw 2 games though). I just think the at-large bid from the conference with Mr. Wednesday and others will probably end up having more power points then jeheniz.

Good points and I agree, in principle. But please note that Sndvls has recently posted that jeheinz's conference won't have a championship game.

Your final point that the at-large bid appears unlikely at this time to come from jeheinz's conference is a good one, and one that forms a basis for my argument.

[st.cronin]

3 words: sab o tage

You can't simply calculate what happens when people win or lose.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Racer, if jeheinz is a wolf, isn't he well positioned to get the at-large bid?

Yes. But again, I think conference with Mr. Wednesday and claphamsa is a bigger threat to get the at-large bid (either a wolf or a conference win for them). I would consider jeheinz's conference to be the number two threat to my conference.

Does someone have a vote count by the way? If "Vote No sanctions" is currently in the lead and moving my vote off of Claphamsa and onto Jeheinz might make a difference, I will switch my vote.

[jeheinz72]

Great to see everyone breaking it down for me

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

Public Poll

1. jeheinz72
2. RendeR
3. SnDvls
4. Anxiety
5. Molson

Challenge Team 72

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Except that the only person saying molson is a wolf is somebody in molson's conference - in other words, somebody who couldn't possibly know that molson is a wolf.

Plus molson's conference is close, so if it turns out molson IS a wolf, there's a lot more options open to us to keep him out of second place.

I've made my reasons for thinking he is a wolf pretty clear in several posts. I have seen no one counter the logic of them. Like any game of WW, the "facts" are based on suppositions. The only thing I know for certain is that I am not a wolf. I believe RendeR is a seer, and I believe that he spoke the truth when he scanned and cleared Lathum. I've seen no one contest RendeR's seer ability. I believed Alan T and now Path 12 was/is a seer, and based on their play I believe he/he is a villager.

Hear me now, think about it later, believe me next week.

If someone has dirt on either RendeR or path, that would be very relevant to this discussion, and I'd be eager to hear it. I'm not one of those people that doesn't consider additional information.

Sanctions now on Molson make him a lot easier to deal with in conference play. Jeheinz has to go a long way before he becomes a threat to the league.

[chesapeake]

By the way, there's been no talk about the Catholic thing that came up at the end of day 3. Anyone have thoughts on that?

[st.cronin]

I have no idea what to make of the Catholic thing, to be honest.

[Racer]

Unvote claphamsa
Vote Jeheinz72

Hopefully someone else will also move their vote off of somebody and also vote for Jeheinz. Although, I don't think Jeheinz is the biggest threat, it'd be better to hit who I think is the 2nd biggest threat to my conference rather then not to hit anyone at all. Again, voting no sanctions only hurts YOUR conference.

[chesapeake]

That's 2 of us. I guess it means we now have 2 sets of wolves, who may or may not overlap.

[st.cronin]

I haven't done any kind of vote count, but I feel like molson is in the lead for sanctions. It seems like he got a lot of early votes.

[jeheinz72]

Unvote No Sanctions
Vote Molson

Since I was too lazy to count the votes earlier. I'm not a wolf guys, I"m a lobbyist.

[jeheinz72]

To that end, who is supposed to be scanning my conference? Shouldn't they have scanned me by now to verify?

[Racer]

I did this quickly but here is what I have:


Jeheinz72 - 4 votes
No Sanctions - 4 votes
Molson - 3 votes
Claphamsa - 1 vote

[Abe Sargent]

Schedule Team 80

Wish me luck

[Racer]

I really don't want a tie so

Unvote Jeheinz72
Vote Molson