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Old 10-02-2007, 04:18 PM   #451
hoopsguy
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Path, I think you are missing one critical component of my train of thought that would help you with your list. My fellow wolves would probably be angry with me for giving you that info. But I really like the stuff you did put out here and an awful lot of it is spot on.

So, should I tell the wolves to kill you ASAP because the list is so good and a threat to them? Or that the list is off just enough, but would be treated as important if you showed up dead?
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:19 PM   #452
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So basically everyone alive except Ant, Daddy, and AC could be a wolf?

Or me..he didn't include me in his little list at the end...
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:21 PM   #453
RealDeal
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yeah, ollie, but he said you were "very possible"
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:35 PM   #454
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Well, you will find out in a few hours if I am the Alpha Wolf. I'll tell you right now that I am, but I could be lying, right?

I think there is probably another option:
C) I followed this pretty closely, with one or two exceptions

If I told you it was in fact choice C would you believe me?

Also, the whole "getting scanned" thing might not be a concern at this point - I'm hoping that PurdueBrad is the seer that he was revealed to be upon death. Because then without a seer or a witness you guys will have to do some old-fashioned detective work to find the remaining wolves. And history has shown that this is a lot harder than it sounds.

I would believe you used option C, because I would think that would be the smart way to play. its called not putting your eggs in one basket. I almost waited a couple of days to use that power, knowing that i am not usually a casualty early but in the end decided that that is a power best used early. I do agree with what you have said about the witness power. I like it to be tied to following a chosen individual instead of getting a quick kill like that.
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:46 PM   #455
Passacaglia
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Can someone tell me what Antmeister's style of play is usually like? I only ask because I've never played in a game with him before, and I know that he has played in other games before.

I remember a weird exchange between the two of them, where hoops asked Ant something, and Ant replied just by asking hoops some other question, and not really answering at all.
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:48 PM   #456
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My thoughts are that we're back to square one, taking out anything hoops said.
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:50 PM   #457
Passacaglia
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As of right now, my COT includes sal, AC, and ntn.
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:53 PM   #458
hoopsguy
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Why do you trust Sal and AC?

Why would you disregard everything I've said? I've had multiple posts out there that I wish I could take back - stuff is there to be used if you look with the right eye.
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:54 PM   #459
path12
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So basically everyone alive except Ant, Daddy, and AC could be a wolf?


C'mon, that's the best you've got? I don't know who he actually picked, so I'm not entirely tossing anyone......I'm just trying to come up with more likely vs less likely.
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Old 10-02-2007, 04:57 PM   #460
path12
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Path, I think you are missing one critical component of my train of thought that would help you with your list. My fellow wolves would probably be angry with me for giving you that info. But I really like the stuff you did put out here and an awful lot of it is spot on.

So, should I tell the wolves to kill you ASAP because the list is so good and a threat to them? Or that the list is off just enough, but would be treated as important if you showed up dead?

If the wolves don't kill me off, that implies that they don't think I'm anywhere close, so maybe it's better for them to just leave that alone.

Or make some kind of comment about not ruling enough people out.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:04 PM   #461
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C'mon, that's the best you've got? I don't know who he actually picked, so I'm not entirely tossing anyone......I'm just trying to come up with more likely vs less likely.

I guess my problem with the thought process is that Hoops would probably have the same process, and thus would be likely to choose one of the folks you list as least likely to be chosen.

So if a rational approach suggests that Ant, AC, and Daddy are highly unlikely to be wolves, then a rational approach would be to choose at least one of them.

It starts to make my head hurt when I think about it too hard.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:06 PM   #462
Passacaglia
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Why do you trust Sal and AC?

Why would you disregard everything I've said? I've had multiple posts out there that I wish I could take back - stuff is there to be used if you look with the right eye.

I just don't buy it.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:07 PM   #463
Passacaglia
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And as for Sal and AC, I still don't think AC makes his post knowing that PB was about to die. And I don't think sal makes his vote switch as a wolf. It's not very strong trust, but it's some trust.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:10 PM   #464
path12
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And as for Sal and AC, I still don't think AC makes his post knowing that PB was about to die. And I don't think sal makes his vote switch as a wolf. It's not very strong trust, but it's some trust.

I feel fairly good about both of them right now also. But it is early.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:11 PM   #465
hoopsguy
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Pass, it wouldn't be sporting for me to pull up the posts to prove my point. But I'll certainly talk in the post-game about it if people care by then. I expect that the game will have moved on enough by then that no one will give a damn what I had to say on Day 2, however.

Good luck with that trust thing, though.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:13 PM   #466
RealDeal
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My COT is nt, and that's it. Anything else is guessing.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:14 PM   #467
path12
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I guess my problem with the thought process is that Hoops would probably have the same process, and thus would be likely to choose one of the folks you list as least likely to be chosen.

So if a rational approach suggests that Ant, AC, and Daddy are highly unlikely to be wolves, then a rational approach would be to choose at least one of them.

It starts to make my head hurt when I think about it too hard.

Yeah, you can always do the "well, you know that I know that you know that you would do this so I would do that etc etc etc"........but I don't know that applies to any analysis on who he would pick. First off, anything we do is speculation. Secondly, hoops didn't know how he would get found out in the end, or that there would necessarily be speculation on that particular post.

I do tend to believe the adage that wolves lie less in thread than most in order to stay as trusted as possible.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:15 PM   #468
path12
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My COT is nt, and that's it. Anything else is guessing.


So what approach would you take to find a wolf on day 3 that doesn't involve guessing of one sort or another?
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:20 PM   #469
hoopsguy
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When I show up as a villager, you will all have to backtrack big-time on the NTN trust.

Um ... I got nothing.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:22 PM   #470
Passacaglia
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When I show up as a villager, you will all have to backtrack big-time on the NTN trust.

Um ... I got nothing.

Would be awesome if you were somehow the duke, and killed NTN.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:28 PM   #471
hoopsguy
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It would be awesome if the Duke showed up to take out someone else, just for the pure hilarity of it. I would rate that very high on the list of great werewolf moments if this were to transpire.

Heck, I even promise to release the name of another wolf if the Duke makes this happen. It would totally be worth it, even if it doesn't help us win the game.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:31 PM   #472
Alan T
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It would be awesome if the Duke showed up to take out someone else, just for the pure hilarity of it. I would rate that very high on the list of great werewolf moments if this were to transpire.

Heck, I even promise to release the name of another wolf if the Duke makes this happen. It would totally be worth it, even if it doesn't help us win the game.

Watching from the sidelines and not knowing what roles anyone has.. I agree with this. I would love to see that happen
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:34 PM   #473
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lol @ hoops
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:37 PM   #474
RealDeal
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Note to self: If I ever have a role that allows me to bag Hoops as a wolf, don't do the reveal until later in the day, so Hoops doesn't get 10 hours to mindfuck the other players.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:39 PM   #475
jeheinz72
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Note to self: If I ever have a role that allows me to bag Hoops as a wolf, don't do the reveal until later in the day, so Hoops doesn't get 10 hours to mindfuck the other players.


Haha, no kidding.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:40 PM   #476
path12
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Note to self: If I ever have a role that allows me to bag Hoops as a wolf, don't do the reveal until later in the day, so Hoops doesn't get 10 hours to mindfuck the other players.

You missed the game a couple back where he was scanned evil and damn near got someone else lynched. I'd much rather see him just try and mess with people's minds this way......
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:40 PM   #477
hoopsguy
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RealDeal, everyone is too smart for me to mess with them. The only thing I'm succeeding in doing here is satisfying my own internal, desperate need for attention.

And running up my collection of posts that don't count, of course.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:44 PM   #478
Neon_Chaos
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Whose bright idea was it not to count the werewolf posts anyway?









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Old 10-02-2007, 05:45 PM   #479
jeheinz72
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Seriously. Maybe I'll just forever be at 0.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:50 PM   #480
Passacaglia
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Note to self: If I ever have a role that allows me to bag Hoops as a wolf, don't do the reveal until later in the day, so Hoops doesn't get 10 hours to mindfuck the other players.

What? No way! I love days like this.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:52 PM   #481
hoopsguy
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You missed the game a couple back where he was scanned evil and damn near got someone else lynched. I'd much rather see him just try and mess with people's minds this way......

I've beat the seer scans three times that I recall:
1.) WW7 (X-Com) - outed as wolf by the turncoat, convinced group to lynch turncoat. Overturned by Duke.

2.) WW16 (Return of Wolves) - viewed by seer, convinced lynch of third party that night

3.) WW30 (Ghost Council Orzhova) - viewed by two people, convinced lynch of one of two who viewed me

I've also had a couple of other games where I've survived for a sick amount of time due to fake reveals - the Star Wars game comes to mind. But for whatever reason, people generally just hang me nowadays when my name comes up as evil. It is kind of a bummer, as it really is a rush to escape death for a day under those circumstances.

I need a new sign-in name ... maybe something like keb.
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:56 PM   #482
Passacaglia
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keb -- i love it
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Old 10-02-2007, 05:58 PM   #483
hoopsguy
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OK, heading home for work in a couple of minutes. I'm sure I'll be on at some point between now and the deadline, but not sure how much.

If anyone has any last minute questions about my innocence, please feel free to ask them. I'm sure I'll have answers that will satisfy all.

If anyone has any last minute questions about the wolves, please feel free to ask them. I'm sure I'll have answers that are cryptic at best, outright lies at worst.

To the Duke out there - I'm pulling for you to make the right decision tonight. Getting a two-for-one is the best thing you could ever do for the village.
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Old 10-02-2007, 06:07 PM   #484
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I didn't pick Cronin

I can't tell you how badly my feelings are hurt by this.
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Old 10-02-2007, 06:08 PM   #485
path12
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keb -- i love it

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Old 10-02-2007, 07:01 PM   #486
Barkeep49
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I still maintain Hoops' list is mostly accurate if he was the alpha. If I'm alive tomorrow I'm going to refigure the math, figuring he got to pick 3, to go off of for my vote. That also assumes hoops really is the alpha.
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Old 10-02-2007, 07:01 PM   #487
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Hmmm, plenty of posts by hoops, I'll see if I can sign on after I get home and decipher them. Maybe he lists his cronies in there, of maybe he's enjoying f'ing with us.

I tried reading a little during the meeting (strategic seat selection is important for these things) but "had the floor" way too much to look at more than a post or two.

I don't get a wolf vibe from Pass this time, at least so far... for AC, I'm still a little curious about his vote yesterday.... olliegirl I can't read yet, but want to see what she posts a little more. she was so quiet in the last game that I wrongly suspected her and it cost us the game.... jeheinz, I don't even know who you are, no offense, so I have no read at all on you...

I'll have to see if I can make the time to come up with a list of actions from yesterday, there must be something fishy (or wolfy) in there other than hoops.


So AC, did you pick hoops or did he pick you?


...have to stir the pot a little, the Pass "walf baiting" from my first game was fun, and proved quite accurate.
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Old 10-02-2007, 07:43 PM   #488
hoopsguy
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I still maintain Hoops' list is mostly accurate if he was the alpha. If I'm alive tomorrow I'm going to refigure the math, figuring he got to pick 3, to go off of for my vote. That also assumes hoops really is the alpha.

BK, lets work through the math right now while I'm around to help.

I listed seven people, including myself on the list.
Cronin was also on the list.
You maintain that you are a villager.
That leaves four names for you to check.

The remaining people - there were ten and that included PurdueBrad. So there are nine people left who I did not list.

I'll probably take someone with me when I die, which will skew the numbers a little bit. But I don't want to tip my hand on who it might be - hopefully they are here for the final write-up so I can get immediate gratification upon seeing them read the results.

So, what ratios are you assuming I go with for the picks? How many wolves, how many in each group?

I want to be helpful if I can
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Old 10-02-2007, 07:48 PM   #489
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Just got home, sad that I signed on here to look over posts right away before even eating... just sad...

Maybe I am again reading too much into things but it seems that hoops read into PB's comments about being the seer. Or he just claims that he did. If he did and he moved his vote we shoudl start to look at other late votes, and vote movement on day one. Three people remained on the PB vote, one is now a lynched villager whom I wrongly helped lynch.

Pass and Ant are the remaining two. Another wolf may have remained on the PB vote as we would not think that two wolves would both vote for the seer incase of reveal.

I am not getting a wolf vibe from Pass, but it's early. Does this mean that Ant could be one of hoops cronies?

I need to get some food in my system and will try to post a summary of day one, at least it's not something that is greatly needed for tonioght as we seem to have a hairy one in our sights (hopefully he'd not one that will take one of us out with him ala PB in my first one).
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Old 10-02-2007, 07:57 PM   #490
hoopsguy
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Eagle, I saw it at the time. I communicated it with my fellow wolves. The question you should ask yourself is just how much manipulation of the vote was needed?

I'll be very honest with you - I would have been just fine with Arlington Colt moving the vote to PurdueBrad (seer) instead of Cronin (non-seer) last night. Does that clear Arlington in your mind? How about the fact that I threw out suspicion on Arlington this morning, knowing that I might be exposed as a result of the night kill?

Who have I not posted about in the last two days? Who have I tried to clear in my posts? These are all questions worth exploring, and all stuff that I'm trying to obscure with my avalanche of posts down the stretch.
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:02 PM   #491
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I have to decide the probability of you picking another wolf from your list. I also want to see all the deaths to see how that shakes out.
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:13 PM   #492
DaddyTorgo
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i'm ignoring everything from hoops after the post where he said he was a wolf. It's all a giant mindfuck, no matter how you slice it. Less to be learned from everything after then from looking at the stuff before that and running that all through 2nd and 3rd level analysis.
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:20 PM   #493
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I feel so completely overwhelmed by the mastery of BS that is hoopsguy.
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:21 PM   #494
Barkeep49
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i'm ignoring everything from hoops after the post where he said he was a wolf. It's all a giant mindfuck, no matter how you slice it. Less to be learned from everything after then from looking at the stuff before that and running that all through 2nd and 3rd level analysis.
So were you actually offended that he left you off his list?
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:21 PM   #495
Barkeep49
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I feel so completely overwhelmed by the mastery of BS that is hoopsguy.
I do as well. It's why he's such a great player to have around.
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:23 PM   #496
hoopsguy
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I feel so completely overwhelmed by the mastery of BS that is hoopsguy.

You had a pretty good run of BS going when you were the revealed wolf in the magic items game.
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:24 PM   #497
DaddyTorgo
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So were you actually offended that he left you off his list?

yes
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:46 PM   #498
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yes
Are you still offended?
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Old 10-02-2007, 08:52 PM   #499
DaddyTorgo
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sure. I'd like to be thought of as a good choice to be a wolf.

I don't know if you're driving at me as a wolf BK, but I'm not.
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Old 10-02-2007, 09:02 PM   #500
Barkeep49
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sure. I'd like to be thought of as a good choice to be a wolf.

I don't know if you're driving at me as a wolf BK, but I'm not.
Don't know if I am or not either. Your exclusion is the only one that really raised eyebrows when it was first posted (though there was a little talk about Pass's inclusion) and I'm thinking about its significance.
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