Werewolf XVIII: To Crown a King (GAME OVER)

[Passacaglia]

pennywisesb should read Raiders Army, right?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

pennywisesb should read Raiders Army, right?

Pennywisesb? I don't see that name there . Thanks for that catch. I thought I'd changed it.

[st.cronin]

VOTE SALDANA EXECUTE

No particular reason ...

[saldana]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

VOTE SALDANA EXECUTE

No particular reason ...

apparently cronin, you didnt read all the math very closely...if i accumulated a 5 point bonus for lynching Wednesday, i am obviously a noble.

[saldana]

dola, and on the 3rd day of the game, "no particular reason" is a pretty weak reason to vote for someone, you should have a list of people who are obviously on your side, or at least have reason to believe are good or bad....just throwing a random vote doesnt make a whole lot of sense for this particular game especially.

[kingfc22]

VOTE JAIL ST. CRONIN

I think it is time to try to put a halt on the top scoring team.

[saldana]

as much as losing the bodyguard does suck, there is actually a bright side...right now, my estimations have the ratio at 11:2, which means the assassins had a 25% chance of getting one of the fast talking nobles last night (assuming they arent tired of them yet). since they missed them, and got Coffee Warlord instead, we have a great chance to get way ahead if we can nail another one today.

[Vince]

I'm not exactly excited about the Warrior Noble going down. Not excited at all.

And saldana, I'm fairly certain we ironed out that you did not get the 5 point bonus, but st. cronin did. I'll have some more analyzation in a few.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry CW, you were right! This is just a hunch, as I've eliminated almost everyone else. I can still be convinced otherwise. But, in order to get first vote points in..

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY EXECUTE

And how am I a suspect? Because I voted for him yesterday?

[Raiders Army]

VOTE KINGFC22 EXECUTE

[Vince]

Ok, this might be long -- it's kind of a stream of consciousness post as I deduce these things.

Day 2 is the vote we know the most about, so let's focus there. We are 100% certain that Mr. Wednesday was an Assassin. So we can find out exactly how many points those who voted for him got. I already posted that, but let's put it in writing again, just for fun:

Coffee Warlord -- +3 (First Vote on an Assassin)
st. cronin -- +5 (Lynching Vote on an Assassin)
George W. Bush -- +1
Ardent Enthusiast -- +1
McSweeney -- +1
TazFTW -- +1
Saldana -- +1
Kingfc22 -- +1
Desnudo -- +1
Total: +15

Now, we know that as a group, we totalled +12.5 points for this day's voting...so we have to have lost points somewhere. Initially, I determined that there must have been a penalty for voting for any noble, but Barkeep disabused me of that notion. The new rules show that there is no way to lose points for any vote that didn't result in the player being lynched/jailed (ie, a vote to execute a noble doesn't involve a penalty unless that noble actually gets lynched). Therefore, we cannot lose ANY points for the other five votes from day 2. We need to lose points somewhere, to go from our 15 point gain for killing Mr. Wednesday, to our 12.5 point ACTUAL gain. Therefore, we assume that the assassins who voted for Mr. Wednesday were not awarded points. We know that Coffee Warlord was not an assassin, so his +3 is legit. St. Cronin's +5 isn't a guarantee, but Faction B did gain a whole hell of a lot of points, and I'm pretty sure he's on the up and up. Because of that, I don't think it's a great leap in logic to assume that at least three of the +1 point getting guys in the list up there are assassins, to bring us down to +12 from +15. Note, however, that we still need to get a + .5 somewhere...

RPI-Fan -- Execute -- McSweeney
Passacaglia -- Execute -- RPI-Fan
Raiders Army -- Execute -- Coffee Warlord
Schmidty -- Execute -- RPI-Fan
Vince -- Execute -- Schmidty

This is where the 5 'odd' votes come into play. Here are the possible outcomes for these five votes:

Originally Posted by Rules

+.5 points for any person voting to Jail the opposing Noble leader, whether or not they recieve the most votes
+.5 points for any person voting to execute an assassin who does not receive the most votes

Since no one voted to jail anyone in this group of five, any point gain resulting from these votes has to implicate an assassin.

Therefore, one (and only one) of the votes in the group of five non-Mr. Wednesday votes was for an assassin. Since this is highly incriminating, let's take a further look.

We know that Coffee Warlord was the Warrior Noble -- therefore Raiders Army could not have earned a half point for his vote. We're down to three suspects -- RPI-Fan, Schmidty and McSweeney.

RPI-Fan received two votes -- if he was an assassin, we are now at +1 point -- we still need our .5 somewhere (and there would have been 4 assassins in the initial group, which is a lot, especially since RPI-Fan would then be the 5th assassin -- and we still need our .5, so 6 assassins total -- quite preposterous). Therefore (I'm getting tired of that word already ), one and only one of McSweeney and Schmidty is an assassin.

So I'm going to stop here for a breather, then dive back in with a new post. Here's the main conclusion for now, and my first order of business:

We know either Schmidty or McSweeney is an assassin...which one is it?

[Vince]

Damn it, it's 7 AM on the East Coast -- you guys are supposed to be still asleep while I finish this up, so I can finish my deduction and get the first vote in on someone I know is a bad guy

[Poli]

Gentlemen, I'm at work and won't be able to dispute this. I'm a sleepless noble. Last night I wandered around and saw TazFTW come out of Coffee Warlord's room. CW's dead now. It's clear TazFTW is an assassin. We must execute him.

Trust me on this, guys. I really don't have the online time to dispute this.

[Poli]

Vote TazFTW Execute

[RPI-Fan]

VOTE MCSWEENY EXECUTE

[Poli]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

VOTE MCSWEENY EXECUTE

Uhm, did you read my posts above?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Uhm, did you read my posts above?

Sure... But just in case something goes wrong, I want to have a chance to get the first vote bonus. I'm going into school right now, and I won't be back until like 5pm. So I wanted to get that vote in case there's a strange turn of events!

[Vince]

Well, I guess in an effort to reserve 1st vote points...

Vote Execute Schmidty. I'm analyzing day one to see if there's any tell between Schmidty and McSweeney. Ardent, I want to believe you, but I have a 50/50 shot at worst with Schmidty/McSweeney, and you're on the potentially bad guy list at the moment. That could change soon though.

[Vince]

Oh, sorry Barkeep. I know you said you liked the vote to be at the end of the post.

Vote Execute Schmidty.

[Joe]

Looking at votes on day 1, I am confident that McSweeney is an assassin. We had to gain points to make up for Desnudo's negatives, and my votes and others that I know are in my faction voted for McSweeney, which would be +.5 for voting to execute an assassin.

VOTE EXECUTE MCSWEENEY

[Joe]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I'm not convinced Blade is a bad guy, and I'm hopefully getting him in jail, not killing him. I just don't really get the rush to hang McSweeny, I'm not really getting that kind of vibe from his statements and I have some bad memories of rushes to judgement on days 1 of yore.

This post could be quite telling as well

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by George W Bush

Looking at votes on day 1, I am confident that McSweeney is an assassin. We had to gain points to make up for Desnudo's negatives, and my votes and others that I know are in my faction voted for McSweeney, which would be +.5 for voting to execute an assassin.

VOTE EXECUTE MCSWEENEY

So are you also in the "let's crown me" faction? Which faction is that?

I'm with you about McSweeny, but just because it's unlikely to be Schmidty, since we need McSweeny's +1 to not count to get us down to 12.

As for AE/Taz, I'd like to wait a night, and see if something can be done to clear up matters. Neither of them are very high on my trust list right now.

UNVOTE RAIDERS ARMY EXECUTE
VOTE MCSWEENY EXECUTE

[Vince]

Day one things to pay attention to...I can at least play the role of hoopsguy if he's not here

Schmidty:
Post #123 -- He's confused about his message.
Post #139 -- He's confused by the entire game.
Post #201 -- Still confused, but Dubb said something screwey. Vote Jail Dubb.
Post #212 -- "I'd be suspicious of anyone who is confident of anything at this point."

Not much to go off of there, I'm afraid.

[Vince]

Unvote Schmidty
Vote Execute McSweeney.

[Vince]

Ok, I've been convinced that it's McSweeney. Here's the day one points --

We now know that Mr. Wednesday was an assassin, so Blade and Vince get a half point each -- +1 total.

I've deduced that absolutely 0 of the people that voted for Blade were in my faction -- which also happens to be Blade's faction, I believe. Because of this, the only negative modifiers to the score would be the first (Passacaglia, -2) and lynching (Desnudo, -3.5) votes for him. That gives us -5.5.

If McSweeney is an assassin, Dubb gets no points for his vote (because it was to jail, and McSweeney was never put in jail), but everyone else would get half a point, assuming that they are not themselves Assassins. With 4 other votes on him, that's +2 for the good guys.

+1
-5.5
+2
=
-2.5 -- which is what our overall point total was from day one. If we just assume that GWB is not a faction leader, so st. cronin got no points for that vote, and that Ardent Enthusiast is not an assassin, so hoopsguy got no points for that vote, we are absolutely square with our point total.

I'm very confident that McSweeney is an assassin.

[Vince]

This implies a few things...

1) Everyone that voted for McSweeney on day 1 is on the up-and-up. This clears the following people:

George W. Bush
Coffee Warlord (already cleared)
Saldana
RPI-Fan

2) It also gives Ardent Enthusiast a measure of safety -- because this indicates that hoopsguy's vote for him was fruitless, and he is therefore not an assassin. Because of this, I'm inclined to believe that TazFTW is also an assassin.

3) Finally, the coup de grace...if our original list from day 2 is correct, and three of them were assassins...unless there are more assassins hiding, we know them all. Everyone on that list has been cleared but three people:

George W. Bush (cleared)
Ardent Enthusiast (cleared)
McSweeney
TazFTW
Saldana (cleared)
Kingfc22
Desnudo (cleared -- since he had to be accounted for in the points for voting for Blade)

I don't like to count my chickens, but I think we might be on easy street.

[Vince]

Now -- note that it is 5:30 AM here now, and I haven't slept yet. I very well could have some errors in there. Feel free to critique/discuss what I put out there.

[Poli]

I'd sure like to make sure my sleeplessness doesn't go in vain this time.

[Vince]

Well, off to sleep for me. I should be back online sometime this afternoon.

[Coffee Warlord]

Vennnnnnngeannnnnnnnnnce.

Vennnnnnnnnnngeeeaaaaannnnnce!

[st.cronin]

UNVOTE SALDANA EXECUTE


my bad ... I should have thought a little bit harder before voting ...

[st.cronin]

I think it is possible ardent is lying, but I'm not sure. Overall, I am really puzzled, way more than I was in the last game.

VOTE MCSWEENY EXECUTE

[RPI-Fan]

st.c: Barkeep said something about wanting people to unvote and revote in the same post... might want to watch out for that.

[st.cronin]

UNVOTE SALDANA EXECUTE

VOTE MCSWEENY EXECUTE

[Poli]

Is this thing on? Can anyone hear me?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Is this thing on? Can anyone hear me?

Now you know how i felt on day one

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Now you know how i felt on day one

Maybe if you hadn't been so god-damned fancy we would have listened to you. If you had come clean, you would have gotten protected that first night and had at least one more chance to out someone.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Maybe if you hadn't been so god-damned fancy we would have listened to you. If you had come clean, you would have gotten protected that first night and had at least one more chance to out someone.

I wasnt killed at night, you guys lynched me

[saldana]

I was ready to do this as soon as the last day ended, so i dont see it as piling on

VOTE MCSWEENEY EXECUTE

[saldana]

dola, Ardent, i am not ignoring you either, but i am just not sure i believe you at this point. i have had taz firmly in the noble column from the first day, so your "revalation" is a bit of a monkey wrench.

[Poli]

Unmonkey wrench it. He's an assassin, I guarantee it.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I wasnt killed at night, you guys lynched me

Exactly... if you said "I'm the seer, and..." instead of that bullshit you posted, we would have gotten Mr. W right away and you would have had a chance to pick out another one that night.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Exactly... if you said "I'm the seer, and..." instead of that bullshit you posted, we would have gotten Mr. W right away and you would have had a chance to pick out another one that night.

lol, dont get angry...no need to curse...dont want ANOTHER fight becuase you think im stupid.

i will say i wasnt around at deadline and when i left i wasnt going to die. I dont feel any person should reveal a role like that if their not in life-or-death, just subtle hints no matter what role you have.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by saldana

dola, Ardent, i am not ignoring you either, but i am just not sure i believe you at this point. i have had taz firmly in the noble column from the first day, so your "revalation" is a bit of a monkey wrench.

Same here. Maybe it's just a coincidence? I think that waiting a night might be a good idea, especially since we're all fairly certain about McSweeny.

[Poli]

Heh, I'm 100% positive about Taz. Fairly certain about McSweeny doesn't do it for me.

[Passacaglia]

Then wait a day.

[Poli]

I must be talking to myself.

[saldana]

like i said ardent, i dont think anyone is ignoring you, i personally just dont see how your announcement makes any sense, it doesnt fit in with anything i have seen so far, and i am trying to figure out if you are telling the truth or if you are full of crap and an assassin yourself.

[Passacaglia]

Why is it so important to get Taz today? It's starting to seem more like you're defending McSweeny than that you're out to get Taz.

I'm in the same boat as saldana. I had Taz as pretty likely to be a noble, and AE as pretty likely to be an assassin. So AE's accusation doesn't really do it for me. I'd like to see what happens after the next night, and see if some way can be dreamed up to see if Taz can defend himself.

On the other hand, well, I like numbers! And they point to McSweeny.

[Poli]

I'm not defending McSweeny at all. To be honest, I haven't followed the reasoning as to why he's an assassin or not.

I do know I'm a sleepless noble, took my shot to see a kill last night (I felt retarded I didn't do it the first night), and found TazFTW walking out of Coffee Warlord's room. TazFTW is dirty. He needs to be executed.

That's all I have to say.