GAME OVER POST 733 - WW - The Jihad of Muad'dib

[Autumn]

That said though, I buy Pass's explanation about thinking Danny is the seer. The fact that Danny is still alive suggests A) Pass is the Fremen traitor and hasn't been able to communicate with the wolves, or B) Pass is a villager. Since Pass was scanned A doesn't seem possible, and I can't imagine the Cunning would think he had a lead on the seer and not follow it.

I think for now I will

VOTE DARTH VILUS

[Coffee Warlord]

Unvote Pass
Vote Darth Vilus

Still think Pass is the cunning, but I think I'm right on DV as well. Better to go that route, just in case.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That's right, you said something about feeling good about me, and so I figured you had gone back and noticed my hints.

Pass, while we have ended up with the same results, you have to admit that your moves were a bit unorthodox last night particularly. I think you're going to have to give us some explanation as to why anyone but the cunning would switch around like that.

Definitely unorthodox. You said so yourself earlier, and I didn't disagree:

Originally Posted by Autumn

If it was just anyone random doing this, I would bet that they were the Fremen traitor and trying to get noticed. But I seem to remember Pass just being like this at times. Does that sound right to others, or is this out of character? If so I'd bet the Fremen angle.

I thought I had explained why I switched around like that, but maybe I hadn't, and just figured everyone knew what I was doing: I like to keep the vote close.

[Coffee Warlord]

And dammit, now Autumn, my other wolf, goes DV too.

[Passacaglia]

What's the case on DV again?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

And dammit, now Autumn, my other wolf, goes DV too.

I wouldn't worry about that -- if my play has taught us anything, it's that a vote made nine hours before deadline means nothing.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

And dammit, now Autumn, my other wolf, goes DV too.

You're making me worry that you are not the true Muad'dib, since he would realize that I'm a villager. The desert sands are making you twitchy.

[Coffee Warlord]

I think he was trying to not-so-subtly hint at being seer yesterday (or day before, I forget), in attempting to clear Autumn. Seeing as I think Autumn's a wolf, that makes him one as well.

[Autumn]

Maybe someone did this already, but I wanted to look back at it.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Day 1 vote:

PackerFanatic -- ntndeacon
Autumn -- Coffee Warlord, MartinD, Telle, Passacaglia
Schmidty/dubb -- The Jackal, Chief Rum
MartinD -- Autumn, Darth Vilus, Danny, Raiders Army, PackerFanatic
Chief Rum -- cougarfreak

[Autumn]

This is believing NTN's reveal and his scans.

I know I'm good, I think Pass is good. It's hard to believe that no wolves voted for either of the two leading vote getters, so I think one of DV and PF has to be bad. Could be both, or could be one of them, Cougar and Dubb.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Day 2 vote:

Autumn -- ntndeacon, Chief Rum
Passacaglia -- PackerFanatic, The Jackal, cougarfreak, Telle
Raiders Army -- Darth Vilus
Darth Vilus -- Danny
Telle -- Raiders Army
The Jackal -- Passacaglia, Autumn, Coffee Warlord

Again, believing the scans (though this time I remembered to therefore put Pass in green. He did get scanned good, I have to remember.

[Passacaglia]

I was looking at that Day 1 vote also, Autumn. I obviously won't have the same perspective as you, but from where I'm looking, we had all villagers on Autumn, and lots of unconfirmed folks on Martin. If Autumn is a wolf, did all three wolves vote to save him? Seems like they might have given up. But then again, PF's vote came late, and maybe the wolves were hoping to avoid that -- but PF was able to make his vote with the excuse of not wanting a tie.

[Autumn]

Not having much vote history on dubb/schmidty is difficult. It's possible they only had two wolves voting for two nights, which makes it more difficult to pin down.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Day 3 vote:

Raiders Army -- Coffee Warlord, Darth Vilus, Danny, Chief Rum, Passacaglia, Autumn
PackerFanatic -- ntndeacon, Raiders Army
Autumn -- PackerFanatic, dubb93, courgarfreak

Again, believing NTN's scans and ignoring the possibility of a cunning.

[Autumn]

I know I'm good, so if DV was good I'd have to believe that all the wolves voted on me. Given how crazy the vote was, it's possible we ended up in an odd configuration. Obviously important here is when these votes were cast and if they were around to change them, but I think this paints DV poorly to me.

I can't really see voting Dubb with only one vote to go on, though I don't at all doubt he could be bad. We have to figure 2 wolves at least out of me, DV, PF and Cougar. It's a 2/3 shot for me, knowing I'm good. Let me see how these guys moved last night.

[Passacaglia]

I generally agree with that reasoning, Autumn. The only caveat is that while we could have all 3 in your group there, on the other hand, we could have just 1 if dubb is a wolf, and if either Danny or I am the cunning.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

PRIOR TO PASS SWITCHING VOTES THE FIRST TIME

Packerfanatic -3 (autumn @296, NTNdeacon @304, RA@321)
Raiders Army - 4 (dubb93@300, CW @312, DV @315, Cougar @317)
Autumn - 2 (Packerfanatic @303, Chief Rum @305)
Chief Rum -1 (Passacaglia @307)

PASS SWITCHES, DANNY TACKS ON A 5TH IMMEDIATELY

Packerfanatic -4 (autumn @296, NTNdeacon @304, RA@321, Passacaglia @326)
Raiders Army - 5 (dubb93@300, CW @312, DV @315, Cougar @317, Danny @328)
Autumn - 2 (Packerfanatic @303, Chief Rum @305)

DUBB MOVES, PASS & COUGAR FOLLOW SUIT

Packerfanatic -3 (autumn @296, NTNdeacon @304, RA@321)
Raiders Army - 3 (CW @312, DV @315, Danny @328)
Autumn - 5 (Packerfanatic @303, Chief Rum @305, dubb @332, Passacaglia @333, cougar @334)

It looks like PF wasn't around to move or he probably would have moved onto RA earlier.

Let's assume PF, Dubb and Cougar are the wolves. Dubb and Cougar are on RA, don't dare move because PF is right behind him. Pass switches to PF, freaking the wolves out. Danny helps them out by keeping RA ahead. Chief has suggested he may move as well. Dubb and cougar moving doesn't make a lot of sense unless they knew Pass would move as well, or maybe wanted to make sure Chief didn't move. Seems risky.

Let's assume DV, PF and Cougar are the wolves. DV and PF aren't around here at the end. Cougar might have moved thinking the momentum was better on me than RA, but still doesn't make a ton of sense.

Let's assume DV, Dubb and Cougar are the wolves. DV isn't around. In this case the vote doesn't really matter to the wolves and they can just go with the flow.

I'm not sure which of these seems the most likely scenario.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I generally agree with that reasoning, Autumn. The only caveat is that while we could have all 3 in your group there, on the other hand, we could have just 1 if dubb is a wolf, and if either Danny or I am the cunning.

You are right, but I'm willing to ignore the cunning angle for now. I think you or Danny would have tried to off the seer if you were wolves, that being me or Danny respectively in your minds. That's not infallible, but I'm willing to use it to narrow down my vote.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It looks like PF wasn't around to move or he probably would have moved onto RA earlier.

Let's assume PF, Dubb and Cougar are the wolves. Dubb and Cougar are on RA, don't dare move because PF is right behind him. Pass switches to PF, freaking the wolves out. Danny helps them out by keeping RA ahead. Chief has suggested he may move as well. Dubb and cougar moving doesn't make a lot of sense unless they knew Pass would move as well, or maybe wanted to make sure Chief didn't move. Seems risky.

Let's assume DV, PF and Cougar are the wolves. DV and PF aren't around here at the end. Cougar might have moved thinking the momentum was better on me than RA, but still doesn't make a ton of sense.

Let's assume DV, Dubb and Cougar are the wolves. DV isn't around. In this case the vote doesn't really matter to the wolves and they can just go with the flow.

I'm not sure which of these seems the most likely scenario.

I haven't read all this yet -- just wanted to point out that in every scenario, you have cougar as a wolf!

[Autumn]

Probability 101: fail.

PF, DV and Dubb I missed, it seems. PF and DV were both not around, so it would be up to Dubb. I'm not sure why he would switch off of RA in that case if he's protecting PF, but I'd have to go back and and see what people were saying they were going to do.

Is that all of them?

[Autumn]

Either way it doesn't really jump out at me as proving anything. Cougar and Dubb are hard to vote for - Dubb only voted once, Cougar is new, not much to go on with either. It'd be easy for either of them to be a wolf and us not know it.

[ntndeacon]

I almost looked at cougar last night as that fact had me a little nervous. This was always difficult when CR was a wolf, because his schedule made him hard (at least for me) to pin down.

Saying this, I am not opposed a cougar vote before the time to take water.

[Danny]

unvote pass
Vote cougarfan


My senses got the best of me, and with at least 2 and possibly 3 wolves in that list of 5, that is the place to go.

- am not opposed to dv, but I don't want this to be a runaway. Cougar has struck as the newer player being quiet as a wolf to avoid suspicion or doing something wrong.

[Danny]

Reading / posting from phone is slower so I actually voted for cougar before reading autumns and ntns posts. But its good we seem on the same page

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE COUGARFAN

His quietness is unsettling, even being new. I probably won't get a chance to change this vote either, so I just wanted to get one in (definitely not after 5PM CST)

[saldana]

just a reminder i may not have the day results up until late tonight or possibly tomorrow morning, depending on how long happy "hour" lasts, and if i can convince either of the hot brunettes that will be there to let me go home with them. nothing that happens after 10 EST counts, and the night phase will run until Monday morning

[Autumn]

Wow, way to lay the double smack down, Saldana. Go home with a hot brunette AND make our night meaningless.

[Autumn]

Well we'll see how this goes. I should be back on later.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by saldana

just a reminder i may not have the day results up until late tonight or possibly tomorrow morning, depending on how long happy "hour" lasts, and if i can convince either of the hot brunettes that will be there to let me go home with them. nothing that happens after 10 EST counts, and the night phase will run until Monday morning

I have studied the lines of probability in regards to those hot brunettes.

Wear a condom and pop some antibiotics first.

[Danny]

Are their names Ben and Rick?

[Darth Vilus]

Well damn it's about time the seer came out, i was starting to worry that thw eolves were going to get him before he had a chance to give us any info. Especially with the loss of our bodyguard.

[Darth Vilus]

So right now with NTNs reveal we have the following:

Cleared

Coffee
NTN
Danny
Pass

Not Cleared

Darth Vilus
Autumn
Cougar
Packers
Dubb

I believe NTNs reveal 1) It mayches with my feelings on danny and Pass and 2) I think it would be a pretty stupid play by the wolves to go with a fake reveal like that. So NTN, good

[Darth Vilus]

That being said

[Darth Vilus]

I agree Pass's play has been weird and could be construed as the cunning trying to get scanned but honestly, what are the odds that NTN would scan the cunning so early on?

It could happen don't get me wrong, but I sincerely doubt it. that along with my gut feeling leads me to believe that pass isn't the cunning wolf

[Darth Vilus]

So out of the 5 left

Darth Vilus
Autumn
Cougar
Packers
Dubb

I'll be looking mainly at Cougar and Packers. I can't say anything about Dubb either way because of the whole Schmidty situation so that's why i chose the previous two.

Now Autumn, where do I go with Autumn. Originally I believed he was good and just doing as he always does but if he was dropping fake seer hints (which i didn't pick up on), well that's kinda strange.

Why would anyone do that? i don't really see the advantage of doing that unless they were hoping the real seer would pick up on it and scan them and show that they're a villager? Who would be most likely to do this? I'd say the cunning wolf, definitely a cunning wolf move. I know he said he just wanted to screw up one of the wolves's Night kills but why would someone want to do that so early? Agai, what are the odds that the wolve's would pick off the seer right off the bat?

[Darth Vilus]

So I'll be looking at Autumn first, the Packers and Cougar (these two are even, no pref of one over the other)

[cougarfreak]

Sorry boys, I'm sticking with my vote, I'm not believing the seer. Pass has been way too suspicious for my book.

[Schmidty]

I really want to apologize to everyone in this game, particularly saldana (whi ch I already have privately )

We had to put our 13 yo rottie down because she couldn't stand any more, and was in constant pain. To make it worse, I had a tonic–clonic seizure last night. I cracked my head on the floor and have painful bump on it. I went to the doctor today, and decided to switch my epilepsy meds. It makes me stutter like Porky Pig.

Anyway, sorry guys.

[The Jackal]

(Sorry to hear about that Schmidty, losing an animal is never a good experience. Hope your head heals quick)

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

So out of the 5 left

Darth Vilus
Autumn
Cougar
Packers
Dubb

I'll be looking mainly at Cougar and Packers. I can't say anything about Dubb either way because of the whole Schmidty situation so that's why i chose the previous two.

Now Autumn, where do I go with Autumn. Originally I believed he was good and just doing as he always does but if he was dropping fake seer hints (which i didn't pick up on), well that's kinda strange.

Why would anyone do that? i don't really see the advantage of doing that unless they were hoping the real seer would pick up on it and scan them and show that they're a villager? Who would be most likely to do this? I'd say the cunning wolf, definitely a cunning wolf move. I know he said he just wanted to screw up one of the wolves's Night kills but why would someone want to do that so early? Agai, what are the odds that the wolve's would pick off the seer right off the bat?

If you believe they are correct. I'm sticking with my vote.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Danny

unvote pass
Vote cougarfan


My senses got the best of me, and with at least 2 and possibly 3 wolves in that list of 5, that is the place to go.

- am not opposed to dv, but I don't want this to be a runaway. Cougar has struck as the newer player being quiet as a wolf to avoid suspicion or doing something wrong.

Sorry I've been quiet, but I too put down a 10 year furry friend on Thursday (I posted about it in the off topic forum), that along with being new, I've been trying to "learn" as much as possible by watching you guys. Trust me, I'm nothing but a lowly villager.

[Danny]

Unvote Cougarfreak
Vote Autumn

Frankly, I am not sure who to vote, but right or wrong, lynching Autumn tells us the most about previous votes

[Autumn]

Darth's posts make me that much more certain about my vote. Interestingly he says he'll be looking at Cougar and Packer and then targets me. I would guess therefore that the wolves are DV, Dubb, and then one of Cougar/packer, not sure which.

For the record I did not drop seer hints in order to be scanned. I dropped them hoping a wolf would pick up on it and waste a night kill on me rather than having a chance of scoring the seer. If the wolves had been paying good attention it would have worked. You guys suck!

[Autumn]

I can understand looking at me, Danny. I know it's not going to help but since I was involved in several votes it would theoretically tell you a lot. I'm not going to dwell on pointing out that if we're 6-3, and 4-3 tomorrow you guys are in trouble. You'll have a 3/4 chance instead of 3/5 I guess.

My advice to you guys is lynch

Darth, then
Dubb, then
Cougar/Packer, hopefully you'll know which by then

[Autumn]

Anyone have a vote count?

[Danny]

Looks like Darth 2, Cougar 1 and Autumn 2

[Autumn]

Well then, I think this is right?

Autumn 2 - ntn, Danny
cougar 1 - packerfan
darth vilus 2 - autumn, coffeewarlord
passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak

[Autumn]

no vote yet from pass, darth vilus and dubb, I believe.

[Autumn]

Well, nothing I can really do with that. I should be here unless one of my kids wakes up, which is reasonably likely.

[Danny]

Yeah you are right, I missed cougars vote cause it was back on page 8