NFL "Teams Behaving Badly" Thread: 2015

[stevew]

Dola,
it's a good thing Najeh Davenport didn't take the bags into the bathroom.

Then again Dookie Gate would be funny.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by stevew

Lol, is referee Walt Anderson sure he actually checked the balls? Maybe he's misremembering.

This is a far more plausible explanation than the Patriots have a secret ball deflating lair disguised to look just like a regular restroom

[mckerney]

New scandal, the Patriots only won because they had someone pee on the Colts footballs. Quick, get some scientists to find out if balls that have been urinated on are harder to handle!

[stevew]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

This is a far more plausible explanation than the Patriots have a secret ball deflating lair disguised to look just like a regular restroom

Until the 11 of 12 thing is clarified, I don't see how any other explanation makes sense.

[Solecismic]

Great. Now poor Tom Brady has to worry about whether this guy washed his hands before the balls were put into play.

[stevew]

I hate how much I've thought about this issue now.

Would like to see a video on how long it takes to deflate a ball and then reinflate it to the right amount. Seems like a full on pump apparatus would be necessary. Maybe you can use a gauge with a bleeder? This step seems very messy and would have to be done in secret too. It's not like you can easily mess with 2 giant sacks full of balls. It's involved.

What almost has to have happened is that the balls were either gamed when they were submitted and weren't checked over enough. Or the hot air theory seems plausible as well.

I'd lean very heavily towards gamesmanship vs out and out tampering.

[stevew]

Dola,

I can only imagine how Armageddon this thread would be if it happened vs the Chiefs

[stevew]

Trola,

I watched the ball prep vid on MMQB. Even if they were thoroughly checked out AOK, some dude would have had to sneak off with all of the game balls into seclusion with a gauge and bled them all, hoping he didn't alert anyone to the sound of hissing air and also making sure he didn't underinflate so much that he'd have to repump them up. I mean there's all kinds of officials walking around and he has the game balls and then the umpire touches them between snaps.

And I hope the Pats get absolutely throttled fwiw.

[Alf]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

There has simply been far too much talk about crotch grabbing and deflated balls.

Originally Posted by Kodos

It's like Michael Jackson never died.

[Blackadar]

Interesting analysis on Slate.

Stats show the New England Patriots became nearly fumble-proof after a 2006 rule change pushed by Tom Brady.

As soon as the Patriots were allowed to control the footballs (even as a road team), their fumble rates went down dramatically especially as compared to the rest of the league. It would be easier to not fumble a slightly deflated ball versus one pumped up to the maximum amount. One of the key quotes:

Based on the assumption that plays per fumble follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten since 2007 once in 5,842 instances.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0001711874 probability to win. In other words, it’s very unlikely that results this abnormal are only due to the endogenous nature of the game.

[Arles]

I think this idea of "deflating the football" is odd for people and many have a hard time wrapping their head around it. Imagine, if in baseball, there were two buckets of balls prior to the first pitch - one for the home pitcher and one for the road team pitching staff. About midway through the game, the home bucket is inspected and nearly all the balls are found to have pine tar on them. The Ump removes those balls and replaces them with "clean" ones. After the game, it comes out that only the home team had pine tar.

Then, the home coach comes out and says how there are many ways pine tar could have gotten on the balls given the balls for both teams are stored next to the bats, pine tar and helmets prior to the game. Finally, the owner of the home team comes out and chastises Major League Baseball saying that unless they can definitively prove that his team added pine tar to the home balls, he not only deserves to get off scot-free but also with an apology from the league.

I don't see many people finding the home team "innocent" in the above scenario....

[Sublime 2]

Wouldn't you be missing the part where the ump checks the balls prior to the game and hands them back to the home team as a-ok?

[flere-imsaho]

I don't think that's a great analogy. Pine tar is a visible alteration. Deflation (to a certain extent) isn't.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Wouldn't you be missing the part where the ump checks the balls prior to the game and hands them back to the home team as a-ok?

True, I was inferring that both were inspected properly before the game.

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I don't think that's a great analogy. Pine tar is a visible alteration. Deflation (to a certain extent) isn't.

there are plenty of "clear" pine tar options:



Plus, even regular pine tar in a game situation can look like "dirt" once the ball gets used.

[flere-imsaho]

Well, shows what I know....

[jeff061]

So it seems like Kraft handed the video footage to the NFL a week ago and then he came out strong in support of his team yesterday. Signs to me still seem to point to laziness on the officials part when checking the balls.

[cuervo72]

In which case the Patriots were still trying to pass off underinflated balls?

I dunno. It seems to me that a smart team can find a way to cycle footballs away from view, one at a time to have someone stick them with a needle for less than two seconds to let a little air out of them. I doubt they sat there and did them all at once.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by jeff061

So it seems like Kraft handed the video footage to the NFL a week ago and then he came out strong in support of his team yesterday. Signs to me still seem to point to laziness on the officials part when checking the balls.

My opinion may not carry weight on this matter but I've been fortunate to be in an officials locker room before an NFL game and to see how they operate. To the outside public, it may seem as if these are men who just show up on Sunday's to do a game. However, that perception is not a reality...I cannot promise that what you say didn't happen, but given the magnitude of that game (AFC title game), and the fact that this isn't the first time that this has been brought up about New England, I would give that chance that they just decided not to check balls to be the same chance as me getting hit by lightning today.

Robert Kraft is doing what he should do, defend his organization. It's being drug through the mud and every explaination that continues to be given by his head coach has been disproven by science. Show me the video proof he says? Well there might not be any because they knew how to circumvent the system. They've been doing it for how many years now? Lots of practice.

Don't you think for a second it wouldnt be easy for a ball boy with a small needle to reach into a bag of balls and deflate each one? Before you say "how would he know how long to deflate each"...the answer is simple...practice. A ball blown up to an average of 13 psi would need only a few seconds to get down a few PSI. And it would be the same for each ball.

For once I actually agree with Blackadar on something. The quote he puts in this post summarizes my thoughts.

[Sublime 2]

So is the thought the ball attendant went into the bathroom, and took 90 seconds to deflate 11 balls? I'm sure that's possible, but why would he seemingly rush to get that done in 90 seconds, unless he knew they were being watched. In which case, the Pats are dumber than we all think. Maybe the dude just had to pee?

Occam's Razor and all that.

Also, it's not illegal to submit under inflated balls to the refs is it? It's their job to inflate them to the correct range.

Sorry, addressing two different theories there.

/completelybiasedthoughts

[jeff061]

I'm really going by Occam's Razor in blaming the refs. I'm not set on it. I don't believe anything was done to those balls in those 90 seconds. He had to not only deflate, but presumably unbag them all, then rebag them all. If someone on the Pats deflated (which again, I'm not opposed to), I don't think it happened in those 90 seconds.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I'm really going by Occam's Razor in blaming the refs. I'm not set on it. I don't believe anything was done to those balls in those 90 seconds. He had to not only deflate, but presumably unbag them all, then rebag them all. If someone on the Pats deflated (which again, I'm not opposed to), I don't think it happened in those 90 seconds.

Given past evidence with the Pats, I don't think Occam's Razor supports going with official incompetence over Patriots' possibly bending the rules.

[jeff061]

Well that's the high level view. I'm going a little more tactical than that.

[Ben E Lou]

I'm not fully up to speed here. So are we saying that an equipment guy went into a bathroom with the balls for 90 seconds?

If so, 90 seconds seems like plenty of time to do it if you've practiced it and done it for every game for years. But 90 seconds also sounds about right for taking a whizz and washing your hands. So... *shurg*

[cuervo72]

Which makes it a pretty good cover.

(also, I'm assuming there isn't a camera in the bathroom)

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I'm really going by Occam's Razor in blaming the refs. I'm not set on it. I don't believe anything was done to those balls in those 90 seconds. He had to not only deflate, but presumably unbag them all, then rebag them all. If someone on the Pats deflated (which again, I'm not opposed to), I don't think it happened in those 90 seconds.

How on God's Green Earth is the Occam's Razor explanation the refs when:

(1) Other teams have reportedly noticed this before
(2) The Colts' balls were fine
(3) The mathematical analysis above points to something being exceptionally odd in regards to fumbles (again, where a deflated ball would be a large advantage)
(4) The Pats have cheated before

It seems quite a stretch of credulity to think this is either coincidence or the ref's fault. It's possible, but not very likely. It may have not been done in the 90 seconds in the bathroom, but odds are very likely this is deliberate tampering.

[jeff061]

They provided under inflated balls. Refs didn't check. Done. I don't think this has ever been a big deal or emphasized all that much and if the refs didn't take it as seriously(maybe just doing a squeeze test) as their other duties I would not be surprised.

I think that's more likely than successfully deflating post check undetected, which again I certainly don't think is impossible. Ultimately I'm just waiting for the NFL to get off their collective asses and give us more info, until then it's all speculation.

[Logan]

I think the NFL would have loved if the refs didn't check the balls properly. The story goes away in one news cycle and everyone focuses on the Super Bowl. "The officials examined the balls provided and found that they were in line with the usual standards, but did not verify the exact internal measurements. As a result, we will be re-evaluating our practice to ensure consistent standards going forward."

[BillJasper]

If the NFL can prove systemic cheating going back to 2006, then I think Robert Kraft will have little choice but to fire Belichek, cut Brady and move on. It would be one Hell of a black eye for the franchise and bring into question everything they've accomplished.

It will be a worse black eye than even Victor Kiam.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by jeff061

They provided under inflated balls. Refs didn't check. Done. I don't think this has ever been a big deal or emphasized all that much and if the refs didn't take it as seriously(maybe just doing a squeeze test) as their other duties I would not be surprised.

I think that's more likely than successfully deflating post check undetected, which again I certainly don't think is impossible. Ultimately I'm just waiting for the NFL to get off their collective asses and give us more info, until then it's all speculation.

Still in denial...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

...If the NFL can prove systemic cheating going back to 2006...

I'd be really surprised if they could prove that. An equipment guy would have to have a really sweet book deal already in hand before he would sing *that* loudly.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Still in denial...

Yeah look at the total post counts in the thread. I've been in his position before where it was me arguing with like 10-15 people and when I revisit those threads realize how delusional I was. I don't understand why it is so hard for him to understand. Entire group of fans of other 31 teams sees it one way but they are all just jealous of New England in his mind.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Interesting analysis on Slate.

Stats show the New England Patriots became nearly fumble-proof after a 2006 rule change pushed by Tom Brady.

As soon as the Patriots were allowed to control the footballs (even as a road team), their fumble rates went down dramatically especially as compared to the rest of the league. It would be easier to not fumble a slightly deflated ball versus one pumped up to the maximum amount. One of the key quotes:

The problem I have with this is that he just compares the Patriots data to the NFL average, and does not show if any other teams had as dramatic a change, and his reason for excluding dome teams is flawed.

Sharp Football Analysis

At the bottom of the page, click on "Support Data" for the excel sheet.

Using the excel sheet on his website, it says the Patriots from 00-06 had 42 touches per fumble and that improved to 73 touches per fumble for 07-14 (+31 change). But the Falcons also had a large improvement , going from 41 touches per fumble in 00-06 to 69 (+28 change) touches per fumble in 07-14. The Saints, though not as impressive, went from 39 to 59 (+20 change).

From the article you linked: "One thing I found in my prior research was that dome teams fumble substantially less frequently, given that they play at least eight-plus games out of the elements each year. To keep every team on a more level playing field, I eliminated dome teams from the analysis".

Using his data again (after I fixed him having the Titans listed as a dome team and the Texans not), from 00-06, dome teams had 38.7 touches per fumble and non-dome teams had 40.5 touches per fumble. Dome teams were worse. In the 07-14 time frame, Dome teams had 49.0 touches per fumble and non-dome teams had 45.1 touches per fumble. This time they were better. The Texans also had a substantial increase, going from 36 to 52 touches per fumble. The Vikings went from 34 to 47 touches per fumble.

It's not like the dome teams weren't dome teams in 00-06.

The entire NFL went from 40.0 touches per fumble to 46.1 touches per fumble.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Interesting analysis on Slate.

Stats show the New England Patriots became nearly fumble-proof after a 2006 rule change pushed by Tom Brady.

As soon as the Patriots were allowed to control the footballs (even as a road team), their fumble rates went down dramatically especially as compared to the rest of the league. It would be easier to not fumble a slightly deflated ball versus one pumped up to the maximum amount. One of the key quotes:

Here's Brady's rate directly:
From 01-06, Brady had 4,006 plays (att+rush+sack) & 65 fumbles
From 07-14, Brady had 5113 plays & 39 fumbles

Coincides nicely with the rule change to allow the Pats to control their own game balls.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by panerd

Yeah look at the total post counts in the thread. I've been in his position before where it was me arguing with like 10-15 people and when I revisit those threads realize how delusional I was. I don't understand why it is so hard for him to understand. Entire group of fans of other 31 teams sees it one way but they are all just jealous of New England in his mind.

Because that's what it's like to be a fan of this team. Regardless of any controversy going on. Entire group of 31 teams hate on them, whether there is a reason to or not. For the same reasons I hate the Cowboys(that's aging though) and the Yankees.

This 31 to 1 is not some abnormality.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by sabotai

The problem I have with this is that he just compares the Patriots data to the NFL average, and does not show if any other teams had as dramatic a change, and his reason for excluding dome teams is flawed.

Sharp Football Analysis

At the bottom of the page, click on "Support Data" for the excel sheet.

Using the excel sheet on his website, it says the Patriots from 00-06 had 42 touches per fumble and that improved to 73 touches per fumble for 07-14 (+31 change). But the Falcons also had a large improvement , going from 41 touches per fumble in 00-06 to 69 (+28 change) touches per fumble in 07-14. The Saints, though not as impressive, went from 39 to 59 (+20 change).

From the article you linked: "One thing I found in my prior research was that dome teams fumble substantially less frequently, given that they play at least eight-plus games out of the elements each year. To keep every team on a more level playing field, I eliminated dome teams from the analysis".

Using his data again (after I fixed him having the Titans listed as a dome team and the Texans not), from 00-06, dome teams had 38.7 touches per fumble and non-dome teams had 40.5 touches per fumble. Dome teams were worse. In the 07-14 time frame, Dome teams had 49.0 touches per fumble and non-dome teams had 45.1 touches per fumble. This time they were better. The Texans also had a substantial increase, going from 36 to 52 touches per fumble. The Vikings went from 34 to 47 touches per fumble.

It's not like the dome teams weren't dome teams in 00-06.

The entire NFL went from 40.0 touches per fumble to 46.1 touches per fumble.

Didn't the ball control rules change for everyone, not just the Pats, after 2006? It's not like the Pats are likely to be the only team doing the deflating thing; they're just the first to be so blatant about it to get caught (presumeably).

I'm particularly not surprised with the Saints. I would bet Brees, a smaller than normal QB, would love a ball he could grip better and throw with more accuracy.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by sabotai

The entire NFL went from 40.0 touches per fumble to 46.1 touches per fumble.

What does that average become if you factor out the three teams that had 20+ carry improvement in fumbling?

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

What does that average become if you factor out the three teams that had 20+ carry improvement in fumbling?

Minus the Falcons, Saints and Patriots
00-06: 40.0 touches per fumble
07-14: 44.7 touches per fumble

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Minus the Falcons, Saints and Patriots
00-06: 40.0 touches per fumble
07-14: 44.7 touches per fumble

Thanks!

[Arles]

I think the decreased fumble rate for the Saints and Falcons had a lot to do with going from rushing QBs with notorious fumbling issues (Aaron Brooks and Vick) to more pocket QBs who take fewer hits (Matt Ryan in 2008 and Brees in 2006).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Because that's what it's like to be a fan of this team. Regardless of any controversy going on. Entire group of 31 teams hate on them, whether there is a reason to or not. For the same reasons I hate the Cowboys(that's aging though) and the Yankees.

This 31 to 1 is not some abnormality.

I used to hate the Pats. I don't anymore, and haven't for several years. Part of it is probably them not winning any Super Bowls, but it's mostly because of fantasy football. I have had several Pats, including Brady, be key parts of strong fantasy teams for me, and I find myself rooting for them as a result quite often. I like most of the Pats players, including Brady and Gronk.

I am in fact (still) rooting for them to beat the Seahawks, although I'll admit that is at least partly because I am most definitely not a Seahawks fan.

All that said, I disagree with you on this situation, and I think you're allowing your bias to color your perception here. If this was another team, I think you would view this differently.

[jeff061]

If this was another team I'd view it the same, I just wouldn't care and wouldn't voice much of an opinion. That view being this is a minor issue being overblown.

The same way I view baseballs being doctored in baseball, whenever that comes up.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Arles

Here's Brady's rate directly:
From 01-06, Brady had 4,006 plays (att+rush+sack) & 65 fumbles
From 07-14, Brady had 5113 plays & 39 fumbles

Coincides nicely with the rule change to allow the Pats to control their own game balls.

(Brady went from 61.6 plays per fumble in 01-06 to 131.1 plays per fumble in 07-14)

Peyton Manning
From 1998-2006, Manning had 5329 plays (att+rush+sack) with 45 fumbles - 118.4 plays per fumble
From 2007-2014, Manning had 4432 plays (att+rush+sack) with 29 fumbles - 152.8 plays per fumbles

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Because that's what it's like to be a fan of this team. Regardless of any controversy going on. Entire group of 31 teams hate on them, whether there is a reason to or not. For the same reasons I hate the Cowboys(that's aging though) and the Yankees.

This 31 to 1 is not some abnormality.

more like 55-45

Which team are you rooting for to win the Super Bowl? - Sportsnation - ESPN

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think the decreased fumble rate for the Saints and Falcons had a lot to do with going from rushing QBs with notorious fumbling issues (Aaron Brooks and Vick) to more pocket QBs who take fewer hits (Matt Ryan in 2008 and Brees in 2006).

For Atlanta, it was a drastic change. Vick in 01-6 with the Falcons had 44.4 plays per fumble (LOL) and Ryan in 08-14 had 131.8 plays per fumble.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Lathum

more like 55-45

Which team are you rooting for to win the Super Bowl? - Sportsnation - ESPN

Yeah, well I'd like to thank Seattle for being an outspoken team and winning the bowl last year. Nice for a new heel to emerge finally. Any other team it's not quite so balanced.

[sabotai]

Aaron Brooks in 01-05, 56.2 plays per fumble and Drew Brees in 06-14 with the Saints was 99.7 plays per fumble.

(*headslap* - I was looking at the wrong column. Forget what I sad about Brooks' sacks numbers)

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by jeff061

They provided under inflated balls. Refs didn't check. Done. I don't think this has ever been a big deal or emphasized all that much and if the refs didn't take it as seriously(maybe just doing a squeeze test) as their other duties I would not be surprised.

I think that's more likely than successfully deflating post check undetected, which again I certainly don't think is impossible. Ultimately I'm just waiting for the NFL to get off their collective asses and give us more info, until then it's all speculation.

Rich’s Sources: Patriots’ Footballs Passed Referee Inspection Just Under Allowable PSI Level « CBS Boston

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sabotai

The problem I have with this is that he just compares the Patriots data to the NFL average, and does not show if any other teams had as dramatic a change, and his reason for excluding dome teams is flawed.

Sharp Football Analysis

At the bottom of the page, click on "Support Data" for the excel sheet.

Using the excel sheet on his website, it says the Patriots from 00-06 had 42 touches per fumble and that improved to 73 touches per fumble for 07-14 (+31 change). But the Falcons also had a large improvement , going from 41 touches per fumble in 00-06 to 69 (+28 change) touches per fumble in 07-14. The Saints, though not as impressive, went from 39 to 59 (+20 change).

From the article you linked: "One thing I found in my prior research was that dome teams fumble substantially less frequently, given that they play at least eight-plus games out of the elements each year. To keep every team on a more level playing field, I eliminated dome teams from the analysis".

Using his data again (after I fixed him having the Titans listed as a dome team and the Texans not), from 00-06, dome teams had 38.7 touches per fumble and non-dome teams had 40.5 touches per fumble. Dome teams were worse. In the 07-14 time frame, Dome teams had 49.0 touches per fumble and non-dome teams had 45.1 touches per fumble. This time they were better. The Texans also had a substantial increase, going from 36 to 52 touches per fumble. The Vikings went from 34 to 47 touches per fumble.

It's not like the dome teams weren't dome teams in 00-06.

The entire NFL went from 40.0 touches per fumble to 46.1 touches per fumble.

If he's trying to tie it to the rule change in 2006 that allowed road teams to submit balls I also don't understand why he doesn't separate out home/road splits as well. You would also expect to see a lower fumble rate from both teams in Foxboro prior to 2007 if Brady was pushing for under-inflated balls. But if he can't even be bothered to use fumbles instead of fumbles lost I shouldn't expect too much.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by sabotai

(Brady went from 61.6 plays per fumble in 01-06 to 131.1 plays per fumble in 07-14)

Peyton Manning
From 1998-2006, Manning had 5329 plays (att+rush+sack) with 45 fumbles - 118.4 plays per fumble
From 2007-2014, Manning had 4432 plays (att+rush+sack) with 29 fumbles - 152.8 plays per fumbles

Manning was awful (because he got slaughtered) his first 5 seasons (sacked 115 times and fumbled 27 times). From 2003-2012, he was sacked just 140 times with 30 fumbles. Then, his last 2 seasons in Denver, he fumbled a ton and had 17! (as QBs do when they get older - well except for Brady ).

[jeff061]

Oh. So you are saying there is correlation, but not necessarily from the same cause. Got you.