POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Lathum]

Just finished. This won't move the needle one bit.

They are blaming her for things that happened under Biden when she wasn't the president.

[Lathum]

The panel on FOX is surprisingly complimentary of her.

[Brian Swartz]

I think not moving the needle was foregone before the interview. The number of people who watch Fox and are in any way open to voting for Harris is incredibly small anyway.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think not moving the needle was foregone before the interview. The number of people who watch Fox and are in any way open to voting for Harris is incredibly small anyway.

I guess but there is a reason why she is doing it.

[albionmoonlight]

I think she has a “get votes wherever you can” strategy. Like this wasn’t going to bring her a lot of votes. But every swing state is going to be razor thin.

[GrantDawg]

I keep saying it. The last two elections were decided by a few thousand votes in a few states. Razor sharp margins mean even the most minor thing can make a difference. I think it was smart she did this. It tells people that she is not afraid and she can handle herself.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

Sure, I think that's also true. Narrow margins mean anything you can get matters.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Baier is coming across like a bully. He has to stop cutting her off and trying to generate an obvious got ya moment.

I actually like him. I think he is one of the few legit journalists on that dumpster fire of a network. I expected better from him.

He’s been with Fox since 1998 though, with only local experience before that. That’s a lot of time to bake in that environment without much before it.

Also, he’s only 54? I did not peg him as that young. Maybe that’s because every time I’ve seen him (which admittedly isn’t often) he seems to be aping Trump looks/poses.

[Lathum]

Not at all disturbing

When Donald Trump was in the Oval Office, members of his national security staff actively worked to keep him from learning the full extent of these interpretations of presidential authority, concerned that he would abuse them.

https://time.com/7086057/donald-trum...ergency-aides/

[GrantDawg]

This guy could be the next "Joe the Plumber" if he chooses to be. And the crowd reactions to his insane gaslighting.

Voter: I am a Republican that’s no longer registered. Your inaction during your presidency was a little disturbing to me. What happened during January 6th and the fact that you waited so long to take action while your supporters were attacking the Capitol. Coronavirus, I thought… pic.twitter.com/Z6JFVUouZX

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 17, 2024

[Thomkal]

All credit to this guy where he was able to get an answer from him without the walls going up like it would with a journalist. Too bad he didn't ask how the Democrats cheated. Trump's answer shows his delusion is still very much alive in his mind.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This guy could be the next "Joe the Plumber" if he chooses to be. And the crowd reactions to his insane gaslighting.

Voter: I am a Republican that’s no longer registered. Your inaction during your presidency was a little disturbing to me. What happened during January 6th and the fact that you waited so long to take action while your supporters were attacking the Capitol. Coronavirus, I thought… pic.twitter.com/Z6JFVUouZX

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 17, 2024

He’s so full of shit.

[Ksyrup]

I would not have made it through listening to that answer without interrupting him 10-12 times to call him out on his BS. But I give Trump credit for handling it without getting increasingly pissed/erratic. He's definitely full of shit and kept with the same talking points of the past 4 years, but he answered as unemotionally as he probably can.

[JPhillips]

I love how he says we a few times and then realizes how bad that sounds and says, by we I mean they.

[cuervo72]

I wrote this cause it’s what I always wanted to say about Trump pretending to be a tough guy. But we got the amazing @DaveBautista to say it SO much better. Thanks Dave. #TrumpIsAWeakLittleBabyBitch pic.twitter.com/Mo4ZMpOPVH

— Jesse Joyce (@jessejoyce) October 17, 2024

[Edward64]

That.is.fantastic

[Thomkal]

wow Dave Bautista for President. Unlike the guy in the clip above, these are the questions and comments most of us have. Thankfully he can defend himself against any MAGA crazies who take offense.

[Thomkal]

On the day Judge Chutkan planned to release a large group of information from Special Counsel Jack Smith, Trump tries one more time to get her to delay until after the election. Saying it would be cherry picked and one-sided and he wants time to tell his side of the story.



Like he hasn't had all this time to do exactly that and nothing

[Thomkal]

In case you didn't see last night, Stormy Daniels is in the news again. She thought she was finally at the end of her legal battle over Trump-they had been disputing the amount of money she owed him in the settlement.



So Trump, being the honorable sort said he would agree with whatever number she wanted...but only if she signed a NDA to not talk about him until after the election. And here's the best part-she's given the letter to the press but also a video she had recorded because she wanted to document the final dealing she was going to have with Trump. Should be able to find it on MSNBC

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Just finished. This won't move the needle one bit.

Not very much movement after the interview.

The current betting market composite is Trump 57.5% Harris 41.9%. In the swing state betting markets, Pennsylvania is Trump 59.5%, Michigan is Trump 56.5%, Wisconsin is Trump 55.5%, North Carolina is Trump 63%, Georgia is Trump 64.5%, Arizona is Trump 68.5% and Nevada is Harris 50.5%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[cartman]

Apparently there is one guy dumping a crapton ton of money in the elections betting market, skewing the numbers

A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.

Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive… pic.twitter.com/HYlZpUfk2k

— Domer (@Domahhhh) October 16, 2024

[JPhillips]

Taxes are too low if guys can afford to throw away money just to move betting markets.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This guy could be the next "Joe the Plumber" if he chooses to be. And the crowd reactions to his insane gaslighting.

Voter: I am a Republican that’s no longer registered. Your inaction during your presidency was a little disturbing to me. What happened during January 6th and the fact that you waited so long to take action while your supporters were attacking the Capitol. Coronavirus, I thought… pic.twitter.com/Z6JFVUouZX

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 17, 2024

"Ashli Babbit was killed. Nobody was killed" Literally in back to back sentences.

The blank spaces in this clown's brain are simply amazing.

[BYU 14]

I would say by his facial expressions, Trump definitely did not earn his vote back.

Ashli Babbit got exactly what she asked for and in terms of "we didn't have guns, the other side had guns" Aren't the GOP the party of black the blue, or only when they are upholding the law against anyone but them.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

"Ashli Babbit was killed. Nobody was killed" Literally in back to back sentences.

The blank spaces in this clown's brain are simply amazing.

The reaction of this person was perfect:

We are all her pic.twitter.com/FULYR9R6Ok

— Outspoken™️ (@Out5p0ken) October 17, 2024

[Lathum]

That Bautista bit is amazing

[Atocep]

Trump canceled another sit down interview scheduled for tomorrow. This one with NBC. His team claims he'll be in Michigan but he's appearing on Fox and Friends and will be just a few blocks from the CNBC studio.

The group that was claiming dems were hiding Joe seem to really be doing their best to hide Trump.

[albionmoonlight]

Props to the Trump campaign for running a pretty much leak free ship.

Any other campaign with a candidate spiraling like this would have about a dozen insiders burning up reporter cell phones to "speak on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters" and talk shit about the candidate. Heck, that's part of what convinced Biden to stop contesting for the nomination.

But, credit where it is due, you aren't really getting that.

[Lathum]

Eh. They are all going to do what everyone in his last administration did. Sit on damning info that could save America so they can profit from writing a book.

[thesloppy]

I think part of Trump's magic is that everyone in his orbit thinks they're the one person who's going to properly manipulate this obvious moron who is begging for it. But nobody can.

[Thomkal]

Judge Chutkan denies Trump's appeal for a delay-says she will release the Special Counsel's documents tomorrow. She even said if she was to delay this it would be the very election interference Trump claims is happening. Break out the popcorn!

[GrantDawg]

Brett Baier now admits they played the wrong clip in the Harris interview. They were supposed to include the clip from the original interview with the "enemy from within" comment tied to the clip he played. He is taking a lot of flack from other journalist about that.

[larrymcg421]

I think that was the strongest part of the interview for her. She didn't let him get away with downplaying what Trump said.

[stevew]

Trump attending the Steelers game on Sunday night. Guessing security will be ridiculous

[GrantDawg]

The account posted more than 32,700 times in its first ten months of existence before a bunch of prominent MAGA influencers decided to run with its ABC whistleblower lie. The claims got all the way to Trump himself in less than seven hours. https://t.co/QWSmi5O3bi https://t.co/LZZnHiuRNy

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) October 18, 2024

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by stevew

Trump attending the Steelers game on Sunday night. Guessing security will be ridiculous

I thought we'd miss out on a lot of this BS in Chicago because IL obviously isn't a swing state and we haven't had a lot of POTUS visits since Chicago. Unfortunately, it appears that both Trump & Harris prefer to fly into ORD vs. MKE and are visiting WI a lot, meaning that 294 is routinely shut down.

This election can't end fast enough.

[cartman]

So a 6 year old asked Trump what his favorite farm animal was. Trump answered "I'll tell you what I love, I love cows, but if we go with Kamala, you won't have any cows anymore."

[flere-imsaho]

If this was Biden, there would be relentless 24/7 coverage of his cognitive decline.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Just finished. This won't move the needle one bit.

They are blaming her for things that happened under Biden when she wasn't the president.

I think the fact that she did it at all moves the needle. With the "ABC Whistleblower" conspiracy, and people telling me the moderators were Democrats, going on Fox News puts that to bed. Sure, some people won't listen, but some will, and it will help.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think the fact that she did it at all moves the needle. With the "ABC Whistleblower" conspiracy, and people telling me the moderators were Democrats, going on Fox News puts that to bed. Sure, some people won't listen, but some will, and it will help.

Agree and I think even more important, it won't hurt her as she held her own, so people looking/hoping for an implosion did not get it and she didn't lose any support.

[GrantDawg]

4 early voting days, 1.1 million votes.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think the fact that she did it at all moves the needle. With the "ABC Whistleblower" conspiracy, and people telling me the moderators were Democrats, going on Fox News puts that to bed. Sure, some people won't listen, but some will, and it will help.

If only voters were that logical. They're not.

[PilotMan]

Where do we truly think things are?

It feels very much like 2020 to me. Except Harris is better than Biden. It doesn't feel like things are going to break hard enough for trump at this stage, but it's hard to know how the new voting processes may upend things. trump surly hasn't made inroads into other demos and has focused on exciting his own ever shrinking base instead. Low hanging fruit.

If I'm wrong I'll be dismayed, but that's what we had in 16. This feels a. Whole lot different than that however.

[Edward64]

Nice graphic in article that breakdowns early voting by state, registration, age, gender.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ons/early-vote

11,941,248 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally

In GA, 1.2M voted already, 49-46-5 (Reg-Dem-Other). Looking by age, % of 65+ voting is pretty significant.

[Ksyrup]

I will be surprised if Harris wins. It feels worse than 2020 to me. But one of the lessons I've learned from living in the social media age is to understand we're all in information and opinion silos, so everything we're seeing (and feeling in terms of assessing things like elections) is skewed to our own side. So I've baked in my own "bias adjustment" to better tune my expectations to what is more likely the true reality.

That said, since we talked about signage where we live, I have been paying more attention and seeing fewer Trump signs than I remember, and way more Harris signs than I ever remember seeing for Biden. But I also live in a far more moderate suburb which voted Biden 4 years ago outside of a blue county in a red state so maybe that's expected and doesn't mean much. Certainly, it means zero in terms of how KY is going to end up.

I hope to be "pleasantly shocked." But that's about how I will react - shocked - if Trump doesn't win. And as we've discussed, even if Harris wins, we still lose because it will just set the stage for an immediate, major test of our democracy that the GOP is far more prepared for than Dems and the system in general.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Where do we truly think things are?

It feels very much like 2020 to me. Except Harris is better than Biden. It doesn't feel like things are going to break hard enough for trump at this stage, but it's hard to know how the new voting processes may upend things. trump surly hasn't made inroads into other demos and has focused on exciting his own ever shrinking base instead. Low hanging fruit.

If I'm wrong I'll be dismayed, but that's what we had in 16. This feels a. Whole lot different than that however.

It is closer than 2020. Pollsters are generally agreeing this is a tied race. Beyond the "in the margin of error" polling, it is nearly a dead tie in most of the swing states. At this point in a race, there are usually pretty decent swings in the polls going up one way, then up the other until there is a narrowing about now. This race hasn't changed more than .04% in the arrogate since Harris joined the race. It is really hard to gauge exactly which way it will swing in the actual results.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't at all buy that Harris is better than 2020 version of Biden. There's a part of me that wants Biden to go on an I Told You So tour if Harris doesn't win.

I think Harris wins more likely than not, just based on the polls possibly being biased in Trump's favor and overcorrected that way in general. But Silver still has it as a coin-flip, 538 has Harris at 54% and slipping steadily as we get closer, I think it's definitely tight enough that nobody knows.

It wouldn't shock me if there's even higher turnout than 2020, partly based on anecdotal observations that give me the impression the Harris vote is more energized while there's still a lot of Trump enthusiasm. Either candidate winning is very possible, by anywhere from a tight to moderate margin. I definitely expect people on this board to be flipping out in the early going like they were in '20, and help us if we get one of the fun scenarios like a razor-thin result in some of the key states, a 269-269 tie, or similar.

I think the odds of legal challenges in the aftermath are extremely high, unfortunately, because if it's close at all either way but esp. if Harris wins, well ...

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

But Silver still has it as a coin-flip, 538 has Harris at 54% and slipping steadily as we get closer, I think it's definitely tight enough that nobody knows.

538 currently has Trump at 51% chance of winning the election and Harris at 49%. Still a coin-flip, but it's the first time that Trump has taken the lead over Harris in their forecast.

Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" (which I give more credence than 538 now), also has it as a coin-flip now, with Trump at a 50.2% chance and Harris at 49.5%. Although a coin-flip, it marks the first time since Sept. 19 that Trump is favored in his forecast.

[Ryche]

If Get Out The Vote efforts matter, Kamala is going to win and fairly easily. Republicans have no ground game compared to Dems or compared to what they had in 2016 and 2020.

[Ksyrup]

Resting hopes on the youth vote is always a fools' game destined to disappoint, but youth registration is lagging behind 2020 numbers, which I take as a bad sign for the Dems.