POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[bob]

Originally Posted by sabotai

A lot of places still use hole-punch ballots, fill-in-the-circle ballots, absentee ballots are hand written, and all (I think all) computer voting systems can print out a record of each vote. So all of those need to be hand counted for a recount.

Thanks. I guess I didn't realize that since Georgia has had electronic voting for quite a while and you'd think people would learn after the handing chad fiasco.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Not sure about that on FL. Trump's lead is expanding, and it looks like the biggest remaining uncounted sectors are all deep red.

This has been Florida's MO for the last few cycles, iirc.

[RainMaker]

It would be cool if Wolf Blitzer didn't talk over King when he's explaining the map constantly.

[RainMaker]

LOL he might win this. Markets are tanking.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

LOL he might win this. Markets are tanking.

Very possible Clinton wins popular vote by a few million, yet Trump gets 272 or something like that. Clinton needs either Virginia or North Carolina. If she loses both, she'll probably lose the election.

[Coffee Warlord]

268 - 268 still a possibility, boys!

[molson]

NY Times has it as a 50/50 tossup

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Very possible Clinton wins popular vote by a few million, yet Trump gets 272 or something like that. Clinton needs either Virginia or North Carolina. If she loses both, she'll probably lose the election.

She's doing bad in Michigan. Trump might win that too.

[Butter]

Trump dominating rural areas far more than Romney. Maybe a hidden Trump vote after all.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Curiosity question. Are some of you guys following the presidential portion of the results out of entertainment value? I mean, there's no doubt what the outcome will be

ORLY!?

[cuervo72]

Time to panic.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

She's doing bad in Michigan. Trump might win that too.

True. I am shocked Michigan is that close. A week ago I would have -- did have -- say it was near-impossible.

[molson]

I'm probably putting too much into whatever this weird NY Times projection tool is, but it's still surreal to see this:

"Our best guess right now is that Donald Trump is on track to win."

"53% Trump"

[Butter]

NYT meter is going berserk!

[sabotai]

Wonder if the Clinton camp is second guessing spending their time in places like Arizona and Texas in the last week or two of the campaign right about now.

[RainMaker]

Nate Silver clowned all the other "analysts" again. I know he didn't have Trump winning but he said this race would be much closer than people think and was the only projection site that had it remotely close.

[bhlloy]

This feels like brexit all over again. What a complete nightmare

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Wonder if the Clinton camp is second guessing spending their time in places like Arizona and Texas in the last week or two of the campaign right about now.

Absolutely moronic decision. The kind you would imagine is going to go down in textbooks for years to come.

[RainMaker]

I bet Clinton to win but I did bet Trump to win Michigan!

[RainMaker]

DOW futures fell to 500 points down! Haven't seen that since 2008.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

268 - 268 still a possibility, boys!

McMullen in Utah possibly? Congress selects him since they can't stand either of the other two?

[Warhammer]

The Ohio numbers are interesting. Talking about Warren County Ohio where I live. The numbers for Trump are down from previous elections, BUT the votes were not going to Clinton who is underperforming Obama.

EDIT: There were several people I know that normally vote Republican going to Johnson.

[CrescentMoonie]

Starting to look like I might need to restart my German lessons.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Much like the campaign itself, this election is going to set some new trends on how exit polls/early results are judged. It's pretty clear that the electorate is not following the script thus far. Doesn't mean Trump is going to win, but it's certainly a different electorate we're seeing for this election.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Starting to look like I might need to restart my German lessons.

Deutsch ist nicht schwer. Du kannst es lernen.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Deutsch ist nicht schwer. Du kannst es lernen.

It was going quite well, but job searching/trying to get my comps and proposal defenses passed for my PhD caused it to fall by the wayside for a while.

[sabotai]

Fox News projects Virginia for Clinton.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Fox News projects Virginia for Clinton.

So it seems like it comes down to Michigan? If she doesn't win that, she's pretty much toast.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So it seems like it comes down to Michigan? If she doesn't win that, she's pretty much toast.

Yeah, unless a sudden shift in North Carolina happens.

[RainMaker]

Or she'd have to win Arizona but that seems like a pie in the sky.

[Jas_lov]

Yeah, it looks like Hillary is down to her holding her firewall to squeak by - CO, MI, VA, NV. Also needs to hold WI and MN.

[bhlloy]

So what does this do for political polling? Even if this is a narrow Clinton win, they are spectacularly wrong again.

Clintons best path seems to be through Arizona, which is pretty incredible by itself

[Butter]

She's not winning Arizona.

[Coffee Warlord]

I don't see Michigan holding up for Trump. Only a tiny % of Detroit has reported.

[RainMaker]

Does Wisconsin impact things if she wins Michigan? Because it's not looking good for her in Wisconsin either.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Wow. Just wow. Updated by the minute.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Does Wisconsin impact things if she wins Michigan? Because it's not looking good for her in Wisconsin either.

She needs both. Either one means President Trump.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Does Wisconsin impact things if she wins Michigan? Because it's not looking good for her in Wisconsin either.

If I heard right Wisconsin to Trump but Michigan to Clinton opens up a plausible path to a 269-269 tie. Think HRC needs to win NH & ME-2 in that one.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Does Wisconsin impact things if she wins Michigan? Because it's not looking good for her in Wisconsin either.

Yes, if Clinton wins Michigan but loses Wisconsin, that puts them both very near 270. If that happens, how Nebraska and Maine's split votes go could decide the race.

In fact, but my map, if all of the other states go the way they are looking (FL and NC to Trump), if all of Maine's votes go to Clinton, and all of Nebraska's votes go to Trump, and Clinton wins Michigan but loses Wisconsin, that would make it 269-269.

[JPhillips]

Hillary gets to 270 or Trump wins. No way the House would pick her and no way the base would let them not pick Trump.

[bhlloy]

Not looking good in NH and almost no chance of ME-2. If she loses any of her firewall she's toast.

[JPhillips]

If Trump weren't willing to tear up all our post WW2 security agreements and put the world in great peril, I'd be fascinated to see the fallout for the GOP now that they seem to be abandoning almost all of the issues they said were important just four years ago.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Ohio to Trump.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

538 now has Trump as a favorite.

[bhlloy]

It would be spectacular to see the reaction if a few thousand people in Maine make this 271-269 however. The spectacle of this would be amazing if it wasn't so damn terrifying.

[tarcone]

538 blog says trump at 55% to win

[tarcone]

Have you ever seen the movie where the white trash dude is the only vote needed in a tied presidential election?

[Groundhog]

Welp, this would make two great cases against democracy in 6 months.

[molson]

I wonder if we'd get pre-campaign obnoxious but liberal Trump, or post-campaign obnoxious and conservative Trump as president.

I'm really working through the scenarios of what a Trump presidency would be like. Best case, he focuses on branding and doesn't use the office to lash out at whoever he perceives his enemies to be. And the rest of the U.S. political "establishment" takes this as a huge wake-up call that America thinks they suck hard. It could be a real jolt into the way all of us are used to doing things, in politics, business, and everything else. I understand the appeal of that from people who are struggling in the rural U.S. I voted Clinton because I'm a conservative, in that I want to keep the status quo and make improvements, but generally stay on the same course. Trump is not the "conservative" choice here in that sense, he's the opposite.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I don't see Michigan holding up for Trump. Only a tiny % of Detroit has reported.

Looking at 2012, Wayne County went for Obama 393,884 to Romney 90,550.***

Right now, 33% of Wayne is in, Hillary ~140,000 to Trump ~75,000.

Edit: *** Looks like these numbers were off. Must have been looking at the wrong thing. 2012 in Wayne County, according to Politico, was 595,253 for Obama and 213,586 for Romney