POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[albionmoonlight]

I'm not 100% sure, but with that kind of precision, I am guessing actual results.

[albionmoonlight]

Biden significantly underperformed everywhere. So did Clinton.

So does Trump just have the secret sauce to constantly beat his polls? Or have the pollsters finally corrected for the Trump effect? Or did Trump used to have a secret sauce that J6 and Dobbs have taken away?

Lots to learn.

[JPhillips]

I don't understand how campaigns can so openly lie in their fundraising pitches. I got one from Trump today claiming there was a 1500% match for any donation.

By who, that has to be disclosed? What about the contribution cap?

[Lathum]

I know I shouldn't be, but it never ceases to shock me how openly brazen they have become about subverting democracy

NEW: House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris said last night that North Carolina legislators should consider awarding their state's electors to Donald Trump before votes are counted, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. https://t.co/1RUMQvLqDw pic.twitter.com/QES6fyXJHC

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 25, 2024

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

It's both. Right above what I posted is a statement about the current margin in Nevada. That is results, but I think number of registered voters is the same issue.

Where are you seeing current vote totals?

In the Ralston tweet, it is not saying that all GOP candidates are currently ahead by 18,000 votes - it is saying that registered GOP voters have submitted 18,000 more ballots than registered DEM voters. Many of those voters may have crossed over and voted for the other party candidates and there are many Independent and Unaffiliated voters that are not considered in that margin.

Official results are never released until after the elections end and often not for many days afterwards.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I know I shouldn't be, but it never ceases to shock me how openly brazen they have become about subverting democracy

Yeah so we have people going to jail/about to go on trial for false electors in 4 states right now, but sure why not more? Also, this guy would have never suggested this if the hard hit counties were Democratic leaning.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Mitch McConnell's got some balls to say now that J6 was an impeachable offense. When it really mattered he decided to largely stay on the sidelines. We could be rid of Trump if he had worked as hard on impeachment as he did to capture the court.

He was impeached. McConnell said he was responsible. He then voted against conviction, saying the criminal courts ought to handle it.

As much of a partisan asshole as McConnell was, I really do believe he and others were (and are) loathe to marry politics and criminality in a partisan setting because of the precedent. I think they were concerned that politics going forward would devolve into each party in power criminally charging their opponents whether or not they had justification.

The irony here, of course, if that Trump actually committed crimes and will, if elected again, do exactly what McConnell didn't want to see happen. The real issue is that we've allowed a Trump figure to take over a party, which would then give rise to an actual reason for criminal charges. But I think McConnell correctly surmised that once it happens, there won't necessarily be any reason for hope that the next criminal charges will be justified.

And the further irony is that his SC largely gutted the charges against Trump. But I really do think McConnell would have been happy to see Trump go down. He was just too much of a "party over country" guy to call it out in real time and, you know, lead. He tried - a little. A few of them did, right after J6. They made some pretty direct statements about Trump's responsibility, found that they polled about as well as a fart in church with their constitutents (McConnell was censured by a couple of local KY GOP organizations), and either publicly reversed course (Kevin McCarthy, Nikki Haley) or just faded into the hedge like Homer Simpson (Mitch).

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Yeah so we have people going to jail/about to go on trial for false electors in 4 states right now, but sure why not more? Also, this guy would have never suggested this if the hard hit counties were Democratic leaning.

Dems would need to pull themselves out of the devastation by the bootstraps to find a polling location. Plenty of thoughts and prayers though.

[GrantDawg]

A member of the Wash Post editorial department tells me: Bezos's decision not to endorse is "an outrageous abdication of responsibility. Democracy doesn't die in darkness, it dies when people anticipatorily consent to a fascist's whims."
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) October 25, 2024

[JPhillips]

Newspapers refusing to endorse Harris because they are scared of the repercussions to their business is a very bad sign of how things will go if Trump wins.

[Ksyrup]

I think I saw the same from the LA Times and an editor resigned.

[JPhillips]

Please beware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials. Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.

I hope someone on this board can tell me whether this from Trump is something I should worry about.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I think I saw the same from the LA Times and an editor resigned.

Several have and they have had thousands of canceled subscriptions.

[Ksyrup]

I'm going to resign my position of Corrupt Election Official before January just to be safe.

[Lathum]

Dola- Wapos editor just resigned.

[RainMaker]

Final NYT poll came out and it is tied. I think this breakdown kind of sums up the race. Harris has given up a big chunk of her base in the campaign and the hope is she can draw in more moderate Republicans and neoconservatives to make up for it. I personally don't understand the strategy but maybe they see something we don't.

Looking at the NYT poll crosstabs, the Kamala Harris under-performance is again with the low-propensity core Democratic leaning groups: She's at 81% with black voters (Biden won 92%), 52% with Latinos (Biden won 59%), 55% with under-30s (Biden won 59%). pic.twitter.com/Y2HnRrmYs6

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 25, 2024

[RainMaker]

And she is up double digits over Biden with white college grads. No clue how that plays out but I'm sure some math guru knows.

In today's average, Harris is leading 79%-16% w/ Black voters and 53%-42% w/ Hispanic voters, both of which would represent a double-digit Dem margin decline vs. '20. But she's leading 56%-41% w/ white college grads, which would be nearly twice Biden's '20 estimated margin.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 25, 2024

[JPhillips]

Massive voter registration fraud in PA. Looks like Scott Pressler's organization, although they haven't yet been named, was falsifying info on registrations.

[JonInMiddleGA]

All these resignations ... this could be the best single day for the quality of journalism in maybe forever.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Massive voter registration fraud in PA. Looks like Scott Pressler's organization, although they haven't yet been named, was falsifying info on registrations.

The president of the leopards eating faces party is about to go through some things.

[Ksyrup]

That's not something a real journalist would report about. Must be fake news.

[RainMaker]

I'm sure Garland will lay down the law.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'm sure Garland will lay down the law.

He already has the strongly worded letter written.

[Lathum]

It’s all lies all the time.

The 'Black Insurrectionist' was actually white. The deception did not stop there | AP News

[Thomkal]

More info on the Voter registration fraud in PA:


Massive Potentially MAGA Voter Registration Fraud Uncovered In Pennsylvania

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It’s all lies all the time.

The 'Black Insurrectionist' was actually white. The deception did not stop there | AP News

.

[JPhillips]

5th Circuit says Mississippi can't count votes received after election day even though state laws gives five days so long as they are postmarked by election day.

Doesn't matter for MS results, but the speculation is this will spread quickly or get pushed to SCOTUS before the election.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

5th Circuit says Mississippi can't count votes received after election day even though state laws gives five days so long as they are postmarked by election day.

Doesn't matter for MS results, but the speculation is this will spread quickly or get pushed to SCOTUS before the election.

I feel like if it goes to SC this is one ACB and Kavanaugh would side with the liberal justices.

[Ksyrup]

We aren't getting near the volume of political ads as more competitive states (I was in NC earlier this week and it was ridiculous). That said, I'm being forced to watch James Comer commercials, so that's it's own special kind of hell. Especially when he's bragging about dragging drug company officials before his committee and "giving then a taste of their own medicine." He did jack shit to actually change anything related to drug prices. But he did successfully set up a narrative for his reelection campaign!

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

5th Circuit says Mississippi can't count votes received after election day even though state laws gives five days so long as they are postmarked by election day.

Doesn't matter for MS results, but the speculation is this will spread quickly or get pushed to SCOTUS before the election.

I'm not an attorney, but am pretty familiar with election law generally. This decision is, on its face, bananas. I realize that unqualified appointees (whose only merits were being young and conservative) tabbed for relatively low-level federal judge positions being rubber stamped by the Senate during Trump's first term was among the least sexy or momentarily outrageous things happening (and outrage fatigue is most definitely a thing), but... we are going to see horseshit jurisprudence like this for a generation.


i.e. elections have consequences

[JonInMiddleGA]

And hopefully one of those consequences is a return to more sane practices concerning the casting and counting of ballots.

[JPhillips]

I know it varies from state to state, but the practice of accepting mail-in ballots so long as the postmark is election day or prior has been standard since I was a kid at least.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Where are you seeing current vote totals?

You're correct, I misread that.

[Mota]

Trump is doing the greatest job of overpromise and underdeliver. The amount of things he has told people he'll do is virtually impossible to accomplish. No income tax is the new one? That's insane. Let's see how these tariffs go.
I do work for a Canadian company that sells product into the US, and I'm not looking forward to this.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I know it varies from state to state, but the practice of accepting mail-in ballots so long as the postmark is election day or prior has been standard since I was a kid at least.

But it's not a sane practice once the analysis established that it favors the opposition! Then it became a way to rig an election. Get your facts straight.

[Swaggs]

If I remember correctly, the House passed a voter's rights bill that would have made voting rules more consistent across the country and there were over 50 votes for it in the Senate, but the GOP Senators filibustered it and then it turned into another political noose for Biden over the use of the filibuster with Manchin and Sinema refusing to vote to abolish it. Which is fine, but you can guarantee that the GOP, with even a one vote majority in the Senate, are going to legislate like they have a filibuster proof majority.

[JPhillips]

Voted early today. Our location was packed all day according to poll workers.

[JPhillips]

dola

Hell of a closing argument.

Elon Musk says we must accept "temporary hardship" once Trump is elected.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

But it's not a sane practice once the analysis established that it favors the opposition! Then it became a way to rig an election. Get your facts straight.

Future elections will allow the party in power to allow for party voting at 'home' election locations up to 2 weeks prior to and counting election day. The party out of power will be at the mercy. Only allowing for in person, day of election voting, during a normal 8-12 and 1-5 times, and 1 location in each county, no matter the size. If the party in power elects to vote at said location, they will be allowed to move to the front of the line.



/s


It's all creative thinking, but there will be spin on something like this, because it's what the founding fathers wanted, and freedom, and it's what's best for the country.



Half the arguments for certain things we've seen since 2016 are just bonkers. But you've got more and more people who really, honestly, believe it's the truth. Controlling of education, controlling though. language and phrases that are unique to that group. All the building blocks are there for a long, dark, fall into authoritarianism.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

Hell of a closing argument.

I kind of feel like Musk sees trump as someone who would love to bring back a pre-Mandela era, of South African, rule to the US.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I kind of feel like Musk sees trump as someone who would love to bring back a pre-Mandela era, of South African, rule to the US.

Don't forget David Sacks and Peter Thiel are from South Africa too. It's always been a model for a large number of people in this country.

[cuervo72]

“Temporary” hardship, right.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Half the arguments for certain things we've seen since 2016 are just bonkers. But you've got more and more people who really, honestly, believe it's the truth. Controlling of education, controlling though. language and phrases that are unique to that group. All the building blocks are there for a long, dark, fall into authoritarianism.

Definitely true. The sad part is it's also true of Democrats to a lesser degree.

[JPhillips]

I really don't worry that Trump is Hitler, but the right, including Trump and Vance, is full of people who would love to use Orban's Hungary as a model for the US.

[Atocep]

Trump's interview on Rogan is yet another example of why his campaign is hiding him other than rallies and podcasts, etc. The guy just isn't all there anymore and I've even seen some on the right comment that Trump has definitely slipped mentally but they'll still be voting for him. Which proves that the right's issue with Biden had nothing to do with his age and mental acuity.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump's interview on Rogan is yet another example of why his campaign is hiding him other than rallies and podcasts, etc. The guy just isn't all there anymore and I've even seen some on the right comment that Trump has definitely slipped mentally but they'll still be voting for him. Which proves that the right's issue with Biden had nothing to do with his age and mental acuity.

In addition to being hilarious, this ad probably captures Trump's current mental state better than any I've seen.

[GrantDawg]

Speaking before Trump at Madison Square Garden, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe says: “These Latinos love making babies, there’s no pulling out, they cum inside, just like they do to our country”

Calls Puerto Rico “floating garbage island”

Joke abt black people “carving watermelons”
— Christopher Mathias (@letsgomathias) October 27, 2024

[JPhillips]

JD Vance did an interview prior to the rally saying that soon NYC won't feel American anymore.

[JPhillips]

"She is some sick bastard, that Hillary Clinton. What a sick son of a bitch. The whole fucking party. A bunch of degenerates. Lowlives, Jew-haters, and lowlives. Every one of 'em. Every one of 'em."

Quite a rally going on. Lots of quality speakers.

[Thomkal]

Man thank god they are going full racist in the last days of the campaign