POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[molson]

Even the New York Times model, which essentially "called" this a while ago, still has Clinton winning the popular vote. So that (the electoral college debate) will still be a thing, though there's nothing Dems can do about it. But they have a big electoral map problem with the shifts in the midwest.

[stevew]

The sun will rise tomorrow

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by molson

Who do we nominate to start the Trump presidency thread?

I nominate Jon; I certainly got on him enough through this.

[wustin]

Looks like Democrats now know to not piss off white people in the midwest.

[Scarecrow]

Originally Posted by wustin

Looks like Democrats now know to not piss off white people in the midwest.

You would think she'd know this, being from Arkansas.

[CrimsonFox]

Rosie O Donnell needs to be on a plane NOW!

[CrimsonFox]

ahhhhhhhhhhh look at all the lonely people (in this thread)

[molson]

Originally Posted by stevew

The sun will rise tomorrow

I was wondering if people are holding back their panic here some. I've argued against liberals here for 10+ years and I feel like I'm the only one really worried. I'm breaking out the fire pit in the backyard, drinking scotch, contacting friends I haven't seen in a while, contemplating my personal financial status with an eye towards being more conservative, wondering what will happen if my girlfriend loses her job, etc. While a small part of me is intrigued to see what happens next.

I can personally get through a bad economy, a Supreme Court retreat on certain individual rights, etc, but my biggest fear at the moment is about the environment. We're electing someone who at least claims to believe global warming is a hoax.

[AENeuman]

3-1 warriors lead
3-1 Indians lead
3-1 Clinton lead

Oh 2016, you are cruel mistress

[Drake]

Originally Posted by molson

Interesting that, according to 538, Clinton only got 65 percent among Latinos. Trump did much better than Romney did with Latinos. I'm having a hard time buying any polling, exit or otherwise, but we seem to have underestimated the number of Latinos who share Trumps views on Mexicans.

There's something to this. I have a number of friends who are naturalized U.S. citizens (largely SE Asian, but some Latino), and they are much, much, much more angry about U.S. immigration policy/open borders than I am. I tend to want to extend the helping hand.

What they see is that they did it the right way, paid thousands of dollars in travel expenses to fly here or there every hear for visa shit, waited in lines, filled out a bazillion forms, constantly felt like they were on tenterhooks constantly about their legal status.

In essence, they paid their dues and earned the right to call themselves Americans. The fact that we'd make a policy of just giving it to other people for free invalidated their sacrifices.

As my Malaysian buddy said the other day, "So, my brother called me up and wants to come live here in the U.S. because he thinks that my citizenship will give him a free ride. I said to him, 'Fuck you. Stand in line like the rest of us did.'" (His wife is also a naturalized U.S. citizen from Sri Lanka.)

[tarcone]

Its not as circle-jerky in here tonight.

[Ben E Lou]

Per Fox: 69% of people who believed neither candidate was qualified to be POTUS voted for Trump.

NeverTrumpers were OhHellTrumpIGuess in the end.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

The America that I thought I lived in, or that we were heading to is now dead. This was a once in a lifetime opportunity for Democrats to change the SCOTUS. With the next president likely to seat at least 2, possibly 3 on the court, there will never be another chance to get back here in my lifetime. That's a disturbing thought.

And this is exactly why in the end I pulled the lever for him. I went to vote divided between whether to vote for Johnson or Trump. I need the end, I voted for Trump because of the SCOTUS nominations.

[General Mike]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.

I think the thing about people not wanting to admit they were going to vote for Trump are spot on, but at the end of the day, even Republicans who didn't like him, held their nose and voted for him.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Fox News gives Nevada to Clinton.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Its not as circle-jerky in here tonight.

Hey man, if Iowa wins this weekend, all is forgiven. I'll be the first to apologize for being a dick in the past to you, including in this thread. Call it bargaining or acceptance if you like.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by molson

I was wondering if people are holding back their panic here some. I've argued against liberals here for 10+ years and I feel like I'm the only one really worried. I'm breaking out the fire pit in the backyard, drinking scotch, contacting friends I haven't seen in a while, contemplating my personal financial status with an eye towards being more conservative, wondering what will happen if my girlfriend loses her job, etc. While a small part of me is intrigued to see what happens next.

I can personally get through a bad economy, a Supreme Court retreat on certain individual rights, etc, but my biggest fear at the moment is about the environment. We're electing someone who at least claims to believe global warming is a hoax.

Why would we panic? We're (mostly) white guys. Even when we vote against our self-interest, we still win.

I'm just disappointed that while we got to 5% with third party votes, we didn't get one party to the 5% threshold. That was the big question *I* was hoping the polls and models were wrong about.

[sabotai]

92% reporting in PA, 48.2% to 48.2%.

[Edward64]

Wonder if this could be because of the Russian hackers?

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by TroyF

And nobody likes to be called an idiot because they were going to vote one way.

That's pretty much why I voted Trump. I was on the fence until recently, but ended up casting a vote for Trump (instead of Johnson) simply as a F.U. to all the articles I had read that contained highly snobbish & elitist Clinton rhetoric.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Fox News gives Nevada to Clinton.

Still not over...

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Butter

Hey man, if Iowa wins this weekend, all is forgiven. I'll be the first to apologize for being a dick in the past to you, including in this thread. Call it bargaining or acceptance if you like.

Iowa is going to give up 60 this weekend. That game is going to get the faithful worked up even worse.

[EagleFan]

Not sure why Google hasn't called Wisconsin yet.

Wow, just 15 vote difference in NH at the moment.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by TroyF

People are ANGRY and have been for awhile. Not just the white males. And nobody likes to be called an idiot because they were going to vote one way.

The Republicans thought if you ignored him, he would go away. They decided to attack him late in the primaries. The democrats decided to just attack him. Hillary tried to play the "gotchya" card in the debates. Everyone, including me, thought all she had to do was show up and she would end up winning.

The problem is that's how she viewed it as well. She took things for granted. She didn't feel the need to go to Wisconsin. She kept attacking Trump rather than talking about the issues. In short, she was a horrible, horrible candidate and was from the start.

I'm shocked at this, but in hindsight I shouldn't have been. I HATE what is going to happen tonight, but there are very clear reasons why it did.

The primary probably should have been a bigger sign to us.

I always thought it was a bad strategy to just label everyone who disagreed with you a racist, sexist, etc. Focusing all your energy on certain groups and ignoring (and even blaming) a large segment of the population. Whether that's taking the sides of groups like BLM or the abundance of snarky political commentary that demeans groups in this country. And for working class white people who have been hurt by the economy over the years, Democrats who usually supported them have not.

I mean I don't agree with how the election went but I guess it's not surprising that when you trash a huge part of the electorate for a decade, they'll come out in droves to vote against you.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by molson

I've argued against liberals here for 10+ years and I feel like I'm the only one really worried.

I'm joking around because there's nothing I can do about it.

Bold prediction: Within 2 years, North Korea will make a statement making fun of Trump's hands. He'll demand nukes be launched at Pyongyang. The military will never allow that, so they resort to the only option they have. A military coup.

(I'm joking, please don't put me on a list!!!)

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Butter

Hey man, if Iowa wins this weekend, all is forgiven. I'll be the first to apologize for being a dick in the past to you, including in this thread. Call it bargaining or acceptance if you like.

is vomiting a stage?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Still not over...

Wisconsin looks like it's lost. Pretty much comes down to that now that Michigan might swing in her favor.

Edit: Pennsylvania not looking good for her either. Outstanding vote count in parts that will help Trump.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Not sure if you're joking or not, but this could be a silver lining for me. I've been waiting for a stumble in the S&P Index to put some money into an index fund (I didn't say I was being smart about it...that money should probably already be there). If it drops a good amount over the next day or two, it'll be time for me to pull the trigger on that.

Nope, not joking. Futures down 700 right now. I'm a long term guy so figure it may crash more over the next week but good chance it'll eventually recover.

[CrimsonFox]

DOW plunged 750 already

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Edit: Pennsylvania not looking good for her either. Outstanding vote count in parts that will help Trump.

Thanks, legit, for that insight.

I'm so far behind that I can't catch up on that stuff I don't think, so you genuinely told me something useful that I did not know.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nope, not joking. Futures down 700 right now. I'm a long term guy so figure it may crash more over the next week but good chance it'll eventually recover.

I think we're definitely looking at a 10% drop at least in the first week.

[molson]

Current WWE tag team champion Rhyno appears to have won a spot in the Michigan legislature. And Donald Trump is a WWE Hall of Famer. So maybe Trump just tapped into the underrated Michigan wrestling fan demo.

[Ben E Lou]

Yes, agree that a couple of networks are hinting that PA is Trump's. Just saying that it's going to be close there, so he has a shot.

AZ hasn't been called for Trump yet.

[MrBug708]

What are the chances that Trump gets impeached on that rape charge?

[tarcone]

USA and Britain against the world again!

Wait for the rest of the world to come crawling to suck on our teets. History does repeat itself.

[Ben E Lou]

Dola...but yeah, it looks like his floor is 258 and hers is around 220.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

What are the chances that Trump gets impeached on that rape charge?

You can only be impeached for things that happen while you are in office.

[sabotai]

If Trump wins WI, which looks likely, he doesn't even need New Hampshire. He'll very likely win Arizona, he'll get Alaska, and he probably gets ME-2 and all 5 of Nebraska's votes. That's it. That's 270.

PA and MI won't even matter at the end of it.

[tarcone]

I think they called Wisc for Trump already

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

What are the chances that Trump gets impeached on that rape charge?

it was already dropped

however the trump U thing is still in swing

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by tarcone

USA and Britain against the world again!

Wait for the rest of the world to come crawling to suck on our teets. History does repeat itself.

Britain has been on a pretty significant downswing since the early 20th Century I'd say.

[molson]

McMullin within a few hundred votes of finishing 2nd in Utah. Did Perot finish 2nd anywhere? Who would be the last 3rd party/independent to do that if not him?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I really hope we get a called election relatively soon. I want to see both of these speeches.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

What are the chances that Trump gets impeached on that rape charge?

0%

Republicans control House and Senate.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Britain has been on a pretty significant downswing since the early 20th Century I'd say.

But build up the Navy and Air Force. Then watch out.

[Edward64]

Eh, CNN pundits are doing some deep soul searching right now. Go back to the polls.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I think they called Wisc for Trump already

Some have, some haven't, and since I'm one of those people that falls into "lots of people still remember what happened in 2000", I went with "likely".

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by King of New York

FOFC should invite Nate Silver to join and start the thread.

I know Silver is the only pollster most people can name, but he's been giving Trump a much better chance than other pollsters and the prediction market. He still had it as 70/30 Clinton... which is still a 30% chance for Trump.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.

Originally Posted by General Mike

I think the thing about people not wanting to admit they were going to vote for Trump are spot on, but at the end of the day, even Republicans who didn't like him, held their nose and voted for him.

This narrative has been out there for awhile, but I don't buy it. How many Trump voters seem embarrassed to be voting for Trump? I think it's a failire to predict the massive rural turnout in the Rust Belt, just as pollsters missed on how high the urban turnout would be fir Obama. Correct me if I'm wrong, but these models rely on extrapolating out data based on past turnout, and as predicted here multiple times it wasn't some surprising demographic shift it was where the turnout surge came from that was surprising.

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nope, not joking. Futures down 700 right now. I'm a long term guy so figure it may crash more over the next week but good chance it'll eventually recover.

Everything bounced back after Brexit, etc. Great time to buy.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

McMullin within a few hundred votes of finishing 2nd in Utah. Did Perot finish 2nd anywhere? Who would be the last 3rd party/independent to do that if not him?

Think Maine and Utah.

[Ben E Lou]

I can't stop giggling at the Canadian immigration web site's issues tonight.