COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cartman

Anti-Mask Floridians Hurl Conspiracy Theories At Officials In Wild Public Meeting

I wonder how these people feel about "no shirt, no shoes, no service" policies

These sound like cult members.

[bob]

The school plans starting to come out are weird. Cobb County (GA) has said that parents can choose either in person or at home. But you have to make a decision by July 10 and if you stay home, that's your decision for the entire first semester. Meanwhile, teachers haven't been told at all how this is supposed to work.

Meanwhile, state is making almost a billion in cuts to education.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by bob

The school plans starting to come out are weird. Cobb County (GA) has said that parents can choose either in person or at home. But you have to make a decision by July 10 and if you stay home, that's your decision for the entire first semester. Meanwhile, teachers haven't been told at all how this is supposed to work.

Meanwhile, state is making almost a billion in cuts to education.

Apparently Gwinnett is doing so as well, and Gwinnett teachers are being told they have to come in as normal.

While Georgia cases and hospitalizations are spiking again. Atlanta is as high as it was in April.

Head in the sand sort of thing.

[bob]

How are teachers supposed to teach both the students in class and the students online at the same time?

[ISiddiqui]

I guess ask the school officials?! The online ones definitely seem like they'd be at a disadvantage - like watching a video of teaching going on?

I remember how two months ago people were talking about how much more teachers were going to be respected after parents saw how much work they had to do to teach kids... guess not.

[bob]

I assume if teachers don't know yet, the officials don't have a plan. Probably waiting to see how many families are taking in person vs at home option. Meanwhile the summer is wasted while they could be making plans and prepping.

[PilotMan]

Wow, according to Worldmeter, the US is over 2000 deaths for today already. That's the worst day on record since May 7.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by bob

How are teachers supposed to teach both the students in class and the students online at the same time?

I remember when I was in college, we sometimes had some people attend class by zoom or whatever app we had. Just have a camera pointed at the teacher.

Obviously not ideal but you have to work with what you have.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Wow, according to Worldmeter, the US is over 2000 deaths for today already. That's the worst day on record since May 7.

Looks like New Jersey reported probable deaths in their total today causing the big spike.

[JPhillips]

I'm planning to do both in-person and on-line for the Fall semester. There's no way I can have any sort of meaningful attendance policy, so the only way to teach is to offer the material in two different formats. I'm working on ways to match the format for both delivery methods.

I don't think that's as easy for H.S. and probably impossible for elementary.

[JPhillips]

I'm planning to do both in-person and on-line for the Fall semester. There's no way I can have any sort of meaningful attendance policy, so the only way to teach is to offer the material in two different formats. I'm working on ways to match the format for both delivery methods.

I don't think that's as easy for H.S. and probably impossible for elementary.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by bob

I assume if teachers don't know yet, the officials don't have a plan. Probably waiting to see how many families are taking in person vs at home option. Meanwhile the summer is wasted while they could be making plans and prepping.

Yep.

One good thing is that saliva tests might well be ready for widespread use in a few weeks, both the Take-Home variation as well as a 'mass version'. Takes less than an hour for results. Everybody gets tested friday before they leave and ideally on another day as well. It is not going to be as reliable, but make it 2 tests and you at least should get a heads up early on if it is spreading.

People in charge have to come to terms with the fact the virus will circulate in schools and plan accordingly, not do it like in some schools here and Close for 2 weeks everytime someone tests positive. That is not a plan.

Kids will get infected and will spread it. Almost all studies saying otherwise are under Lockdown conditions really, numbers from Sweden or countries that have opened show they are infected at about the same rate as their % of the population indicates. (Germany 10% each of the population is 0-9 and 10-19 and both for 3 weeks now hit that % of positive tests). Which in itself would be good news because with Influenza it is thought they are way more likely to catch and spread it than adults.

Kids need to get Education and ideally in person and without crazy rules. But you have to have a plan to monitor the situation to not put major pressure on parents to 'isolate' them away from school (or not). And have a plan for how to handle it when cases pop up, not have every school figure it out on the fly. Give them a range of options depending on what the situation is (1 case you need a different approach than 10 in the same class or 5 across 3.)

[whomario]

There are way too many instances of crossing your fingers, hoping for the best and come up hurriedly with a 'plan' when that does not work*. Or refusing to make a plan or pass the buck.

* Germany for example: for weeks every expert and even politicians made clear that holidays means people spreading it to other regions. We also have Benchmarks in place for when counties need to crack down more (depending on state 35 or 50 cases per 7 days per 100k inhabitants). Now instead of figuring out how to connect the 2 before holiday season we get this big outbreak in 2 counties and NOW suddenly every state seperately tries to come up with a plan on how to Deal with this (can they book into accomodation or not, do they need a test etc).
You had 2 months to come up with a plan, now they are scrambling days before the first big states kick off the holidays. I mean, wtf ?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I got nothing. I spent 3 hours at a chemo infusion center today and people weren't wearing masks correctly.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by bob

How are teachers supposed to teach both the students in class and the students online at the same time?

I don't see a problem. The camera should follow the professor and the professor's slides/notes, etc. One camera for the lecturer, one for the notes.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I don't see a problem. The camera should follow the professor and the professor's slides/notes, etc. One camera for the lecturer, one for the notes.

This may work decently for High School and College, but what about Elementary School kids? A lot of their instruction is far more hands on.

My wife (who is an art teacher) pointed out that one side effect of this is that poorer families will likely feel more of a burden to come in, as both parents (or single parent households) are more likely to work and can't have their kids do school at home for entire school semester or year.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

This may work decently for High School and College, but what about Elementary School kids? A lot of their instruction is far more hands on.

I don't recall that being the case when I was in school
Well and there was all that misc activity time. diaramas and shit too

[CrimsonFox]

lathum why are you at a chemo place? You or someone you know sick?

[panerd]

I was in the waiting area for a doctor as well today. About 7 of us in the waiting area with masks, every employee with masks. Lady walks in without one and is told she needs to put one on. Goes on some rant couldn't catch a lot of it but sure it's right off a facebook meme being passed around but eventually puts one on that was in her purse! So you have the mask even and you want to raise a shit storm? Doesn't even make sense. What I liked best about the mask is I don't have to have any fake expression on my face of shock or sympathy or whatever. I can just sit and observe. Think I should wear one at home around my wife more often.

[panerd]

As a public school teacher the problem we are going to have is the problems we have with a lot of things. There is a unpaid committee meeting in the summer to determine planning for next year. Well this brings out the ladder climbers and the busy bodies generally who also have no family obligations. Who even knows what terrible ideas they will come up with that we will have to implement?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

lathum why are you at a chemo place? You or someone you know sick?

I do not have cancer. I have a genetic blood disorder called hemochromatosis. Basically my body doesn't process iron properly and I have to get a phlebotomy every 3 months. They do them at the same place they do chemo.

[Lathum]

What I think will happen in the fall is if parents have to go back to work but kids can't go to school or parents are unwilling to send we will see little co-ops pop up where parents either alternate houses to accommodate days off or stay at home parents take on the burden.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I don't see a problem. The camera should follow the professor and the professor's slides/notes, etc. One camera for the lecturer, one for the notes.

That's more staff and tech than most colleges can afford. What's more likely is a Zoom with the laptop placed so that the camera captures a limited amount white board and a video out to a projector for slides/documents/etc.

It won't be all my choice, but I'm looking at doing one meeting a week with readings/videos/etc. posted on-line.

[bob]

And if colleges can’t do it, elementary schools sure can’t.

Poorer families will also be more likely to send kids to school because of meals.

[whomario]

How Denmark proceeded re: schools (after stopping the spread in it's tracks early)

How reopened schools in Denmark keep children safely apart - BBC News

thelocal

I generally think opening schools is safe when you have a willingness to accept some changes and have a way of keeping track of developments (just in case sth turns out to be going wrong somewhere, somehow), for which a low level of transmissions is obviously super helpful ... if everybody has a commong goal (opening schools) and is willing to work the problem, rather than arguing if there is a problem and hoping it will just go away.

[bob]

Originally Posted by Above Article

These micro-groups of pupils arrive at a separate time, eat their lunch separately, stay in their own zones in the playground and are taught by one teacher.

There are about a dozen pupils in these groups. Social distancing means that's about the maximum number who can go into one room, which requires dividing classes and teaching staff.

Unless you are somehow alternating which days the kids go to school, this won't work in the US.

[JPhillips]

We also have to understand that state budgets are going to be so bad that all of the school opening plans will be executed with fewer staff and less funding.

[bob]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We also have to understand that state budgets are going to be so bad that all of the school opening plans will be executed with fewer staff and less funding.

Right. The state of GA is cutting almost a billion from education this year.

[Ben E Lou]

TX closes bars, knocks restaurants back to 50% capacity, bans gatherings >100 w/o local approval.

[tarcone]

Schools in Missouri will not be affected this upcoming year. They are mostly funded. The CARES act closed the gap on the lost revenue.

Its the next year where things may get interesting when the state government cuts back the budget.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

TX closes bars, knocks restaurants back to 50% capacity, bans gatherings >100 w/o local approval.

I'm going to need Georgia to close bars and reduce restaurant capacity again...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by bob

Right. The state of GA is cutting almost a billion from education this year.

Also, what folks in other places may not realize is that in some parts of Georgia, teachers return just four weeks from Monday, and then students a week later. I just checked, and 8/3 is the first day of school in Cobb County. (And I wouldn’t be shocked if some districts start a week before that. Some of my Georgia friends were posting first-day-of-school pics in July last year.)

[JPhillips]

Almost 9000 cases and a 13% positive rate reported by FL.

[Lathum]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1...268269568?s=21

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Almost 9000 cases and a 13% positive rate reported by FL.

Not to sound callous, but I am completely over reporting on and worrying about numbers of people who have, at worst, flu-level symptoms for a few days and fight it off at home with rest and fluids, but it seems critical to understand if hospitalizations are rising or falling, and in much of the reporting that number is not even mentioned.

[Ksyrup]

I'm not completely over it, but I agree. The context appears to be missing. Positivity rate, hospitalizations and deaths seem way more important than just number of cases.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We also have to understand that state budgets are going to be so bad that all of the school opening plans will be executed with fewer staff and less funding.

It's fine, they can just declare bankruptcy, no problems.

(I'll excuse myself to the political thread and/or scream into the abyss)

[Ben E Lou]

Does positivity rate matter that much (beyond figuring out if we have herd immunity,) if large numbers of those are asymptomatic or get minor symptoms? I’m not in the “this is just the flu” crowd, but for some significant percentage of positive tests, it *is* no worse. Honestly I think all the reporting on testing is part of the reason people are tuning out and moving on. Tell folks that we have more positive tests than ever, and they say “of course. More tests. The media is just trying to scare us/make Trump look bad/control us/etc.” Tell ‘em that ICUs in their state have gone from 60% to 90% capacity (or whatever the numbers are...I did read that Houston is over 95%) in the last 4 weeks, and that’s another story entirely.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Also, what folks in other places may not realize is that in some parts of Georgia, teachers return just four weeks from Monday, and then students a week later. I just checked, and 8/3 is the first day of school in Cobb County. (And I wouldn’t be shocked if some districts start a week before that. Some of my Georgia friends were posting first-day-of-school pics in July last year.)

That is insane to me. We go back week after Labor Day. Imagine being a kid in the NE who finished school third week of June and your family moves to Georgia and you get a 5 week summer break?

Murphy will announce today what schools will look like in NJ in the fall. Predictably a lot of "I am homeschooling" chatter.

[bob]

And you get a really nice summer if you move GA -> NJ.

Private schools have to be sweating this situation out just as much as colleges.

[AlexB]

Agree that hospitalisation rates, ICU capacity, deaths and death rate are the key metrics.

An encouraging report here in the UK suggests that the proportion of hospitalised patients has fallen from 6% in April to 1.5% currently, and is continuing to fall. This is consistent with other countries data too.

If this pattern continues to fall, or even stagnates at 1%, as the article says, the conversation and measures taken are very different to what we saw in Spring.

Still unknowns though, as to how the summer climate, effect of lockdown and social distancing, etc have affect the type of patients, but overall positive

Coronavirus death rate falling in hospitals - BBC News

[bronconick]

Florida just banned alcohol consumption in bars.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

TX closes bars, knocks restaurants back to 50% capacity, bans gatherings >100 w/o local approval.

And, for some reason, this is singled out:

Houston coronavirus updates: What you need to know for June 26 - Houston Chronicle

After pausing the state's reopening plan on Thursday in an effort to stem the spread of COVID-19 in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott is now requiring all bars to close, restaurants to scale back capacity to 50 percent and for rafting and tubing businesses to close, according to a new executive order issued on Friday.

Guh?

SI

[Ben E Lou]

Long bus rides maybe? Every guided rafting or tubing trip I’ve ever gone on with a company involved a bus ride of at least 20 minutes in very tight quarters—usually longer than that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Long bus rides maybe? Every guided rafting or tubing trip I’ve ever gone on with a company involved a bus ride of at least 20 minutes in very tight quarters—usually longer than that.

Shared wetsuits, oars, etc...plus some are overnight camping. I also realize it is outdoors but you also have someone at the back of the boat yelling commands.

[Lathum]

I think based off what happened today college football is in loads of trouble.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Does positivity rate matter that much (beyond figuring out if we have herd immunity,) if large numbers of those are asymptomatic or get minor symptoms? I’m not in the “this is just the flu” crowd, but for some significant percentage of positive tests, it *is* no worse. Honestly I think all the reporting on testing is part of the reason people are tuning out and moving on. Tell folks that we have more positive tests than ever, and they say “of course. More tests. The media is just trying to scare us/make Trump look bad/control us/etc.” Tell ‘em that ICUs in their state have gone from 60% to 90% capacity (or whatever the numbers are...I did read that Houston is over 95%) in the last 4 weeks, and that’s another story entirely.

Proposed Early Warning Monitoring and Mitigation Metrics - Texas Medical Center
We haven't done today's update yet, but Houston was at 100% of capacity yesterday and we've moved into surge capacity. That is expected to run out in about a week and a half. Then you kindof start getting to the "triage" phase we saw in Italy, NYC, and elsewhere where if you're old and in bad shape, you're pretty much left to die and the beds and, especially, doctors and nurses are left for the healthy and young.

I'd argue that the case and infection numbers do matter for a couple of reasons. There's the duh-duh "a portion of today's infections become tomorrow's ICU cases" part. The infection rate also seems like a good way to tell if your area is getting better or worse - much more reliable than raw case numbers.

SI

[Lathum]

Isn't this where the federal government steps in and has the Army core of engineers build temp hospitals? Or move the Comfort of Mercy to Houston?

[ISiddiqui]

If we had a functioning federal government, sure.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'd argue that the case and infection numbers do matter for a couple of reasons. There's the duh-duh "a portion of today's infections become tomorrow's ICU cases" part. The infection rate also seems like a good way to tell if your area is getting better or worse - much more reliable than raw case numbers.

SI

This. I think it matters in context. A growing number of cases with a very high positivity rate shows that the disease is out of control.