2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread - Page 109

sterlingice · 10-31-2020, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64

I guess there was a bunch of illegals, dead people etc. voting

So your county population increased by (at least) 18K or approx +15% in 4 years? That's pretty good growth.

There's some population growth but also just more people are voting this election. County population is 375K

SI

wustin · 10-31-2020, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Any NC folks have a clear idea of what happened in Alamance County? The video shows the sheriff's department spraying people, ut I'm unclear what led to that.

It was a get out to vote/BLM march

https://twitter.com/JoshStein_/with_replies

refresh stein's twitter feed for updates I guess

wustin · 10-31-2020, 04:14 PM

dola reading some of the twitter comments, looks like it was peaceful until the police tried to seize sound equipment from the marchers and things got violent.

Jas_lov · 10-31-2020, 06:57 PM

DSM Register poll just came out that has Trump up 7 in Iowa, 48-41. Their final poll in 2016 also had Trump up 7 and he won by 9. Gotta hope this is just an outlier. The independents did a complete 180 in the poll from the month before. Selzer is a great pollster but it just seems strange.

sterlingice · 10-31-2020, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

First let's stop them from being able to vote on time. If they get through, next step is to get the early votes thrown out.

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://t.co/VODOZrCoUF
— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) October 31, 2020

But I'm sure he'll find a totally originalist way of looking at this. It has nothing to do with him just being a partisan hack.

SI

whomario · 10-31-2020, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64

I guess there was a bunch of illegals, dead people etc. voting

So your county population increased by (at least) 18K or approx +15% in 4 years? That's pretty good growth.

In 2016 only 55.7% of legal and alive voting age americans cast their vote.

Brian Swartz · 10-31-2020, 07:54 PM

Only, but I was actually impressed it was that many. It isn't always. My impression is that in the long-term, although it will be up this cycle, that lower levels in future decades are to be expected.

whomario · 10-31-2020, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

First let's stop them from being able to vote on time. If they get through, next step is to get the early votes thrown out.

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://t.co/VODOZrCoUF
— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) October 31, 2020

You think they were in a hurry and quivering ? First page of the brief:

Twitter

larrymcg421 · 10-31-2020, 11:38 PM

Anyone else got something on PredictIt?

I got shares of the following:

Biden wins Iowa (.30)
Biden wins Florida (.42)
Biden wins North Carolina (.50)
Biden wins by 10.5% or more (.19)

Radii · 11-01-2020, 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Anyone else got something on PredictIt?

Not on PredictIt but through a friend got Biden at -160.

Ben E Lou · 11-01-2020, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Just added it up. Unless I missed something, the "polling errors as bad as 2016" scenario is 335-203 Biden.

Yup.

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

If Trump does win, then we're done with polls.

sterlingice · 11-01-2020, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Yup.

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

If Trump does win, then we're done with polls.

If he wins through vote counts not the courts, anyways

SI

Brian Swartz · 11-01-2020, 10:01 AM

Trump winning wouldn't mean we'd be done with polls, it would just mean we need to make an adjustment in polling science. That's like saying we don't trust physics because quantam mechanics was a surprise or relativity turned out to be imperfectly articulated and defined.

sterlingice · 11-01-2020, 10:04 AM

That's a more accurate way of putting it

SI

Ksyrup · 11-01-2020, 10:38 AM

I was a bit concerned after seeing the Iowa poll plus the rumor that a GOP pollster was privately telling the GOP that they had Trump ahead in all swing states (McLaughlin, I think?), but then I read that if Biden takes WI, MI and NC with the rest of the relatively safe Clinton states, he gets to 275 EV. Now, that sets up an almost certain challenge by Trump since it's so close, but at least he'd be in front. Hopefully that scenario plays out plus he takes one or more of AZ, GA, PA, and FL.

I don't hold out much hope for TX. I think that ends up at best like the Beto result - great considering it's TX but still a loss, even if it was close.

EDIT to add: the good news is we'll know the outcome for NC on Tuesday unless it's too close to call. It won't be a result of waiting for ballots - the Board said they'll be able to report 97% of ballot that night.

PilotMan · 11-01-2020, 11:09 AM

This "holy shit" moment.

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 12:42 PM

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

larrymcg421 · 11-01-2020, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii

Not on PredictIt but through a friend got Biden at -160.

I tried to get in on the Biden wins outright, but that market was capped at number of traders.

I did add: Biden wins PA (.61)

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 01:30 PM

Texas Supreme Court rejects Republican effort to toss nearly 127K votes | The Texas Tribune

ISiddiqui · 11-01-2020, 01:40 PM

That should help in the Federal Court case.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Lathum · 11-01-2020, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This "holy shit" moment.

Klepper is great. It is amazing how these people believe everything they are spoon fed.

kingfc22 · 11-01-2020, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Texas Supreme Court rejects Republican effort to toss nearly 127K votes | The Texas Tribune

What do you know. Disenfranchising voters was denied.

bronconick · 11-01-2020, 01:53 PM

Eh. Their eggs are already in the 5th circuit and Supreme Court, anyway.

Ksyrup · 11-01-2020, 01:54 PM

Absolutely need a quick NC call for Biden and maybe AZ or GA to seal things by Wednesday morning or we're in for a world of hurt.

Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears ahead on election night - Axios

PilotMan · 11-01-2020, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Klepper is great. It is amazing how these people believe everything they are spoon fed.

The Argentina comment going completely over her head after that was jaw dropping.

PilotMan · 11-01-2020, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Absolutely need a quick NC call for Biden and maybe AZ or GA to seal things by Wednesday morning or we're in for a world of hurt.

Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears ahead on election night - Axios

It's what authoritarian leaders do. Forment confusion, obfuscate international oversight, create a plausible alternative fact tree to keep out observers and drive partisan support. It's very successful in places that aren't the US. The fact that it's even thought possible here is simply outrageous, but you can see the map for it, and it's been obvious for a long time.

kingfc22 · 11-01-2020, 02:13 PM

Let’s just hypothesize that this does go all to hell and somehow Trump “wins” via the courts. What’s to stop what seems a likely majority in the Senate and House for Dems from just impeaching him and booting him out in January?

Lathum · 11-01-2020, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Let’s just hypothesize that this does go all to hell and somehow Trump “wins” via the courts. What’s to stop what seems a likely majority in the Senate and House for Dems from just impeaching him and booting him out in January?

They would need several republicans to come to their side in the senate to impeach him. Doubt that happens.

Ben E Lou · 11-01-2020, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

90/10

89 today.

larrymcg421 · 11-01-2020, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Let’s just hypothesize that this does go all to hell and somehow Trump “wins” via the courts. What’s to stop what seems a likely majority in the Senate and House for Dems from just impeaching him and booting him out in January?

Dems would need 67 votes in the Senate to do that. And that just makes Pence president.

Brian Swartz · 11-01-2020, 02:37 PM

Back down to 89. Cue the sky is falling hand-wringing. It is encouraging to see the number of court cases about the election that are going the way of suppressing not being accepted.

And yeah, the Senate could just impeach Trump (nvm they won't have enough votes to do it), but then they'd have to impeach Pence as well which would just mean Pelosi would be president, and it would be obvious at that point what is going on. President would just refuse to leave, it would accomplish nothing.

JPhillips · 11-01-2020, 02:44 PM

Maybe TX can flip.

Brian Swartz · 11-01-2020, 02:51 PM

I hope it does. That's the kind of statement that would accelerate the necessary rethinking the Republican Party needs to do at the ground level.

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan

It's what authoritarian leaders do. Forment confusion, obfuscate international oversight, create a plausible alternative fact tree to keep out observers and drive partisan support. It's very successful in places that aren't the US. The fact that it's even thought possible here is simply outrageous, but you can see the map for it, and it's been obvious for a long time.

like.........ohhhhhh i dunno......2000?

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:26 PM

did anyone see the cookie monster gif I accidently posted before? That was a mistake...albeit probably an amusing one for you

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Maybe TX can flip.

how many shades of grey does one map need...

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

89 today.

was 90 this morn

ISiddiqui · 11-01-2020, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

how many shades of grey does one map need...

I guess it's not great for color blind folks, but it means it's good for Democrats.

Atocep · 11-01-2020, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

was 90 this morn

Trump got some good state polls for Florida and North Carolina, but all were from right wing pollsters so they move the needle but not much.

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I guess it's not great for color blind folks, but it means it's good for Democrats.

hehe I mean I'm not colorblind but there are several dark green grey shades plus one regular grey for no data.

I mean there ARE other colors....

JPhillips · 11-01-2020, 03:36 PM

Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC.

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:37 PM

georgia win will be so fucking sweet

sterlingice · 11-01-2020, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC.

Y'all Qaeda doing the same in Houston, too

Heavy traffic continues on the 610 Loop. Congestion has been exacerbated by major traffic collision. Please avoid the Loop. Lead vehicle of event is at the 59 and North Freeway. Tale of event has still not departed Fannin https://t.co/jZXfF5TXGH — Chief Art Acevedo (@ArtAcevedo) November 1, 2020

SI

Atocep · 11-01-2020, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC.

I'm sure the Trump administration and right wing media are going to condemn it since they pushed Desantis to make the same thi g a felony in Florida.

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Maybe TX can flip.

anyone from texas....can you give me a play by play of this state and which are democratic heavy and/or populous cities?

are ALL the green areas cities or not? I know nothing about this state really except for austin city limits and beans

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:39 PM

oh yeah Mike Nesmith too

Atocep · 11-01-2020, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

anyone from texas....can you give me a play by play of this state and which are democratic heavy and/or populous cities?

are ALL the green areas cities or not? I know nothing about this state really except for austin city limits and beans

I haven't lived in Texas in 13 years but that looks like the high turnout areas are San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. All of which will vote dem by large margins.

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:41 PM

and i don't understand how georgia's two senate seats can go to different parties...

Lathum · 11-01-2020, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC.

Happening here also. Morons shut down the Garden State Parkway. Election day is going to be such a shitshow

CrimsonFox · 11-01-2020, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep

I haven't lived in Texas in 13 years but that looks like the high turnout areas are San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. All of which will vote dem by large margins.

Dallas is democrat??? I thought everything up north was heavy rep

10-31-2020, 04:14 PM	#5403
wustin College Prospect Join Date: Nov 2014	dola reading some of the twitter comments, looks like it was peaceful until the police tried to seize sound equipment from the marchers and things got violent. Last edited by wustin : 10-31-2020 at 04:15 PM.

10-31-2020, 07:54 PM	#5407
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Only, but I was actually impressed it was that many. It isn't always. My impression is that in the long-term, although it will be up this cycle, that lower levels in future decades are to be expected. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 10-31-2020 at 07:55 PM.

10-31-2020, 11:38 PM	#5409
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Anyone else got something on PredictIt? I got shares of the following: Biden wins Iowa (.30) Biden wins Florida (.42) Biden wins North Carolina (.50) Biden wins by 10.5% or more (.19) __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-01-2020, 10:04 AM	#5414
sterlingice Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Back in Houston!	That's a more accurate way of putting it SI __________________ Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!"

11-01-2020, 10:38 AM	#5415
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	I was a bit concerned after seeing the Iowa poll plus the rumor that a GOP pollster was privately telling the GOP that they had Trump ahead in all swing states (McLaughlin, I think?), but then I read that if Biden takes WI, MI and NC with the rest of the relatively safe Clinton states, he gets to 275 EV. Now, that sets up an almost certain challenge by Trump since it's so close, but at least he'd be in front. Hopefully that scenario plays out plus he takes one or more of AZ, GA, PA, and FL. I don't hold out much hope for TX. I think that ends up at best like the Beto result - great considering it's TX but still a loss, even if it was close. EDIT to add: the good news is we'll know the outcome for NC on Tuesday unless it's too close to call. It won't be a result of waiting for ballots - the Board said they'll be able to report 97% of ballot that night. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-01-2020 at 10:45 AM.

10-31-2020, 06:57 PM	#5404
Jas_lov College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	DSM Register poll just came out that has Trump up 7 in Iowa, 48-41. Their final poll in 2016 also had Trump up 7 and he won by 9. Gotta hope this is just an outlier. The independents did a complete 180 in the poll from the month before. Selzer is a great pollster but it just seems strange.

11-01-2020, 10:01 AM	#5413
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Trump winning wouldn't mean we'd be done with polls, it would just mean we need to make an adjustment in polling science. That's like saying we don't trust physics because quantam mechanics was a surprise or relativity turned out to be imperfectly articulated and defined.

11-01-2020, 11:09 AM	#5416
PilotMan Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Seven miles up	This "holy shit" moment. __________________ He's just like if Snow White was competitive, horny, and capable of beating the shit out of anyone that called her Pops. Like Steam? Join the FOFC Steam group here: http://steamcommunity.com/groups/FOFConSteam Last edited by PilotMan : 11-01-2020 at 11:10 AM.

11-01-2020, 12:42 PM	#5417
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

11-01-2020, 01:30 PM	#5419
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Texas Supreme Court rejects Republican effort to toss nearly 127K votes \| The Texas Tribune

11-01-2020, 01:40 PM	#5420
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	That should help in the Federal Court case. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

11-01-2020, 01:53 PM	#5423
bronconick College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Kalamazoo, MI	Eh. Their eggs are already in the 5th circuit and Supreme Court, anyway.

11-01-2020, 01:54 PM	#5424
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	Absolutely need a quick NC call for Biden and maybe AZ or GA to seal things by Wednesday morning or we're in for a world of hurt. Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears ahead on election night - Axios __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

11-01-2020, 02:13 PM	#5427
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	Let’s just hypothesize that this does go all to hell and somehow Trump “wins” via the courts. What’s to stop what seems a likely majority in the Senate and House for Dems from just impeaching him and booting him out in January? __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-01-2020, 02:37 PM	#5431
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Back down to 89. Cue the sky is falling hand-wringing. It is encouraging to see the number of court cases about the election that are going the way of suppressing not being accepted. And yeah, the Senate could just impeach Trump (nvm they won't have enough votes to do it), but then they'd have to impeach Pence as well which would just mean Pelosi would be president, and it would be obvious at that point what is going on. President would just refuse to leave, it would accomplish nothing.

11-01-2020, 02:44 PM	#5432
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Maybe TX can flip. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

11-01-2020, 02:51 PM	#5433
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	I hope it does. That's the kind of statement that would accelerate the necessary rethinking the Republican Party needs to do at the ground level.

11-01-2020, 03:26 PM	#5435
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	did anyone see the cookie monster gif I accidently posted before? That was a mistake...albeit probably an amusing one for you

11-01-2020, 03:36 PM	#5441
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

11-01-2020, 03:37 PM	#5442
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	georgia win will be so fucking sweet

11-01-2020, 03:39 PM	#5446
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	oh yeah Mike Nesmith too

11-01-2020, 03:41 PM	#5448
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	and i don't understand how georgia's two senate seats can go to different parties...

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