Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[Coffee Warlord]

So...

I'd imagine the mechanic is someone can force someone to vote against their will. Someone forced a Grover voter to vote for cheeki, which is why it tallies to 7/7.

Which sort of sounds like one of two things:

Blue Ajah - the Blue sisters are idealists, proponents of noble causes. Their skills lie in understanding the weave of destiny and the fulfillmment of prophecies.

Or...Compulsion. Which, force the uninformed, is basically mind control, which the Forsaken are plenty adept at (in the books).

[Coffee Warlord]

In my mind, the Blue is a bit of a stretch (that sounds more Duke-y, where the way this was presented seems more ... control-y), whereas Compulsion seems to fit better.

[The Jackal]

Seems more like it would be a double vote situation since there were still 8 people on Grover

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Seems more like it would be a double vote situation since there were still 8 people on Grover

Nevermind, I'm tired

[Coffee Warlord]

Therefore ergo et cetera...this was, to me, more likely to be a wolf making a save, or a wolf going for a twofer.

[The Jackal]

So yeah, definitely feels like compulsion

[timmae]

Do the darkfriends have any additional powers in the books? The rule set is generic it seems. Are they basically vanilla wolves?

[timmae]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

So yeah, definitely feels like compulsion

Basically forcing one of the 8 to the group of 6?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by timmae

Do the darkfriends have any additional powers in the books? The rule set is generic it seems. Are they basically vanilla wolves?

Probably. They're usually like townspeople who just worship the shadow, but can be found from the smelliest peasant to very high placed people. I wouldn't be surprised if they have some small power, though.

[Coffee Warlord]

Run of the mill darkfriends would just be vanilla wolves, per book canon. The Black Ajah / and Forsaken would be the ones who can do things.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by timmae

Basically forcing one of the 8 to the group of 6?

Right. Mind control and such.

[timmae]

I was thinking maybe a green ajah with a warder? Would something be possible there? Claims are counter to that though.

[Coffee Warlord]

That's an angle I didn't consider, but...theoretically, I guess.

Here's a better question. Who does a tie benefit more on day 2?

Village has to go basically on only day 1 votes again, if there is no lynch
Village has a chance to lose two villagers, if there was a double lynch.

Neither of those two scenarios are particularly helpful to the village.

[path12]

I don't see where it helps the shadow all that much either. Wolves rely on village attrition. Makes me feel like a wolf had to be in that mix.

[timmae]

Aiel are stated to be experts at survival... Could they affect others through compulsion? I want to hear from cheeki about that after dawn but what would the books say?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't see where it helps the shadow all that much either. Wolves rely on village attrition. Makes me feel like a wolf had to be in that mix.

If they knew it was two villagers, I could see pulling that trigger. Biggest danger to wolves in a no lynch is probably another seer scan, but...

[path12]

Or I guess I can't imagine not voting Grover again barring new info.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by timmae

Aiel are stated to be experts at survival... Could they affect others through compulsion? I want to hear from cheeki about that after dawn but what would the books say?

Aiel have channelers, so it's possible, but if it's the Forsaken it doesn't really matter what faction they are, they'll have their own powerset regardless of faction history I'd think.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by timmae

Aiel are stated to be experts at survival... Could they affect others through compulsion? I want to hear from cheeki about that after dawn but what would the books say?

No. Channelers can mind control people, only, and it's very very forbidden to anyone outside of the bad guys, and in fact, it really was a lost skill that, for the most part, only the Forsaken knew.

Best an Aiel could do is hold a spear at someone and say, "You're doing this now."

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

No. Channelers can mind control people, only, and it's very very forbidden to anyone outside of the bad guys, and in fact, it really was a lost skill that, for the most part, only the Forsaken knew.

Best an Aiel could do is hold a spear at someone and say, "You're doing this now."

Well, even throwing out the question of would an Aiel have compulsion, you go to the root of the question which is that it doesn't matter because if we think it's compulsion it could be any person in any faction - one or the other wouldn't be relevant if we think it's the Forsaken.

But, it could very well be a non-compulsion mechanic with the same effect we're considering.

[Coffee Warlord]

Oh yes, I could totally be very very wrong. But it fits better than anything I can think of.

[timmae]

Last thought for now... Channelers powers are short duration, right? Would this be a one time use of powers they may have?

[Coffee Warlord]

I can't imagine, for balance purposes, that would be more than a one shot.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by timmae

Last thought for now... Channelers powers are short duration, right? Would this be a one time use of powers they may have?

They rely on physical energy/will and if you did something that required a lot of power, they'd need to recover. While one-time uses make sense in terms of WW, channeling is only a one-time use if you burn yourself out. Which tends to happen with channelers, so you could see someone having the option to take the risk of burning themselves out to have a greater chance of something working.

[The Jackal]

But yes, one-time use abilities make sense for game balance purposes.

[Autumn]

Deadline

[Autumn]

There is a silent resolve in the darkness tonight, as the nations have chosen to not repeat the mistakes of yesterday. They are as determined to find the Shadow as ever, but not willing to lose innocent people to do so. The Shadow however has no such mercy in their souls. For them the night is a stalking ground, and when you wake you see more evidence of that fact. Far afield from the White Tower you find one of the Aes Sedai sisters, one of the most powerful people in the world, struck down dead from behind. She wears a stole of red indicating that she was a member of the Red Ajah. She served the Light.

The Jackal was a sister of the Aes Sedai, Red Ajah. An expert at detecting the ability to channel in men, and capturing them, every night the Red sister had the ability to investigate a player to determine if they were a male who could channel. If yes, they would subsequently have the ability to shield that player and prevent them from using their abilities.

[Autumn]

Day 3 has begun.

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, for what it's worth, Grover doesn't have any items on him.

I had a one time power to take any items a person had. He had nothing.

[timmae]

I want to hear more from cheeki, Grover and raven tomorrow.

[EagleFan]

[cheekimonk]

A tie is wholly dishonorable. I would rather have offered up myself...but I am not convinced of Grover's devotion to the light.. Given Jackal's role, our fight has taken another setback.

[Narcizo]

No lynches are teh suck. I'm going to hope that was a move by the shadow because it would be a godawful move for someone of the light to pull off. However if it was someone of the light they should confess to it so we know. Otherwise we have to assume that it was the work of the shadow. Which leaves it being
a) a move to save Grover or take out a good guy along with Grover, or
b) a move to take out two good guys or to delay voting for a day, effectively getting a free night kill.

Either way I can't imagine that Grover is going to survive the lynch tonight. What it does do though, assuming the agents of shadow are responsible, is clear cheekimonk. Which is why it's important someone claims the action if they did it.

[Narcizo]

22:15 #80 Fontisian votes Vaimes (1)
22:25 #82 timmae votes cheekimonk (1)
22:27 #83 Vaimes votes timmae (1)
20:28 #84 fontisian unvotes Vaimes (0)
20:28 #84 fontisian votes timmae (2)
08:39 #94 Coffee votes Jackal (1)
09:51 #96 Britrock votes Eagle (1)
09:58 #97 Jackal votes Grover (1)

12:02 #106 Zinto votes Grover (2)
12:29 #107 cheekimonk votes Eagle (2)
12:40 #109 Path votes Britrock (1)
12:52 #110 Grover votes Vaimes (1)
13:36 #112 MartinD votes Jackal (2)
14:09 #113 Narcizo votes Eagle (3)
14:37 #114 Eagle votes cheeki (1)

18:00 #135 Chief votes timmae (3)
18:04 #136 cheeki unvotes Eagle (2)
18:04 #136 cheeki votes font (1)
18:17 #138 timmae unvotes cheeki (0)
18:17 #138 timmae votes Glengoyne (1)
18:53 #141 Eagle unvotes cheeki (0)
18:53 #141 Eagle votes Grover (3)
19:01 #143 Path unvotes Britrock (0)
19:01 #143 Path votes Raven (1)
19:18 #147 Path unvotes Raven (0)
19:18 #147 Path votes Grover (4)

19:21 #148 Jackal unvotes Grover (3)
19:21 #148 Jackal votes Eagle (3)
19:26 #150 timmae unvotes glengoyne (0)
19:26 #150 timmae votes Raven (1)
19:27 #151 Martin unvotes Jackal (1)
19:27 #151 Martin votes timmae (4)
19:48 #153 timmae unvotes Raven (0)
19:48 #153 timmae votes Eagle (4)
20:06 #155 cheeki unvotes font (0)
20:06 #155 cheeki votes Grover (4)

20:23 #157 Eagle unvotes Grover (3)
20:23 #157 Eagle votes Jackal (2)
20:37 #160 Zinto unvotes Grover (2)
20:37 #160 Zinto votes Jackal (3)
20:39 #163 cheeki unvotes Grover (1)
20:39 #163 cheeki votes Eagle (5)
20:47 #170 Coffee unvotes Jackal (2)
20:47 #170 Coffee votes Grover (2)
20:52 #182 fonti unvotes timmae (3)
20:52 #182 fonti votes Jackal (3)
20:57 #190 Eagle unvotes Jackal (2)
20:57 #190 Eagle votes timmae (4)


Day 1 Vote

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

No Vote: Glengoyne, Raven

[Narcizo]

22:13 #212 Vaimes votes timmae (1)
23:12 #215 Britrock votes Grover (1)
07:11 #226 Narcizo votes Britrock (1)
08:48 #232 Grover votes Britrock (2)
09:27 #233 Jackal votes Zinto (1)
10:11 #242 Cheeki votes Jackal (1)
10:29 #248 Britrock unvotes Grover (0)
10:29 #248 Britrock votes Cheeki (1)

11:01 #258 Cheeki unvotes Jackal (0)
11:01 #258 Cheeki votes Grover (1)
11:01 #259 MartinD votes Grover (2)
11:51 #270 Chief votes Jackal (2)
12:24 #279 Jackal unvotes Zinto (0)
12:24 #279 Jackal votes timmae (2)
13:56 #303 Grover unvotes Britrock (1)
14:31 #308 Path votes Jackal (3)
14:43 #310 timmae votes Grover (3)
14:59 #313 Glengoyne votes Jackal (4)

15:39 #322 Zinto votes Brit (2)
15:43 #324 Chief unvotes Jackal (3)
15:51 #332 Path unvotes Jackal (2)
15:56 #340 Narcizo unvotes Brit (1)
15:56 #340 Narcizo votes Cheeki (2)
16:08 #350 Jackal unvotes timmae (1)
16:08 #350 Jackal votes Cheeki (3)
16:14 #353 Path votes Vaimes (1)
16:25 #358 Zinto unvotes Brit (0)
17:01 #366 Coffee votes MartinD (1)
17:25 #371 Chief votes Zinto (1)
17:39 #374 Glengoyne unvotes Jackal (0)
17:39 #374 Glengoyne votes MartinD (2)

18:21 #387 Raven votes Grover (4)
18:21 #388 Vaimes unvotes timmae (0)
18:21 #388 Vaimes votes Grover (5)
18:43 #396 Zinto votes cheeki (4)
19:00 #402 Chief unvotes Zinto (0)
19:00 #402 Chief votes Cheeki (5)
19:18 #408 Glengoyne unvotes MartinD (1)
19:18 #408 Glengoyne votes Grover (6)

19:24 #417 Jackal unvotes Cheeki (4)
19:24 #417 Jackal votes Grover (7)
19:51 #430 Jackal unvotes Grover (6)
19:51 #430 Jackal votes Zinto (1)
20:29 #444 Jackal unvotes Zinto (0)
20:30 #444 Jackal votes Cheeki (5)
20:36 #453 Coffee unvotes Martin (0)
20:36 #453 Coffee votes Grover (7)
20:40 #457 Grover votes Cheeki (6)
20:45 #459 Path unvotes Vaimes (0)
20:45 #459 Path votes Grover (8)

Day 2 Vote (Final)

Grover [7] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310), Raven (387), Vaimes (388), Glengoyne (408), Coffee Warlord (453), path12 (459)
cheekimonk [7] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), Zinto (396), Chief Rum (402), The Jackal (445), Grover (457)

[Narcizo]

Well on the plus side I've been uncommonly good at getting a meaningful vote in both days. On the down side it looks very likely that they've both been on villagers.

I'm in two minds about Grover. On the one hand his story seems a bit out there, needing the horn to become the dragon. On the other hand it does seem a bit elaborate to be something the shadow would come up with. Wouldn't he make a more straightforward claim? Like claiming to be the dragon, for example, rather than someone who might become the dragon under the right circumstances.

However his reaction that we've lost if we lynch him just seems unrealistic. If he's relying on getting the horn to become the dragon then he has to know that it's not fantastically likely that that's going to happen. It seems he would have to rely on someone handing the item to him and why would that happen? I'm pretty sure that he can't take an item like Coffee tried. So I can't see how he can perceive his own role as that important.

Is there any canon reason to believe that someone who could become a dragon wouldn't also be working for the shadow? Maybe he's telling the truth and he's still shadow.

Unfortunately I will have to decide fairly soon and then leave you until next week as I pointed out at the start. Which kind of sucks.

[Glengoyne]

Doh! I was hoping for a BodyGuard play that would preserve Jackal at least one night. I hoped/figured that the Red sister would be able to identify a male channeler. I think this confirms that there are male channelers on the Shadow's side, and the loss of another seer-like role is going to make this tough.

On the tie, I'm not really sure how to read that. Someone switched a vote behind the scenes? Somebody bought Grover's story enough to spare him? I think tomorrow is going to be interesting.

[Narcizo]

Vote Grover

I don't buy it. I don't think there's any chance someone is going to/should hand the horn to him so I don't see how his role is much more important than a vanilla. Unfortunately for me my actions yesterday look pretty suspect if he turns out to be shadow but what can you do?

I suspect that today is going to be a wash. Ho hum. If Grover is good then we are in a lot of trouble but not for the reasons he was positing yesterday. More because of the "being on day four with very little in the way of useful voting analysis" reasons. Which could be what the shadow was hoping for with their vote fixing yesterday.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

...

Is there any canon reason to believe that someone who could become a dragon wouldn't also be working for the shadow?...

In the books there are false dragons. These were male channelers that weren't actually the dragon. I guess it is entirely possible that these men believed they were the Dragon, but I don't think there is anything that would hint that they are evil or good.

I'm not seeing the tie between the horn of valere and the Dragon. In the books the horn didn't have that significance for the Dragon, whereas the claiming of Callandor pretty much proclaimed that the Dragon was real. So that part has me a bit skeptical of Grover's claim.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by timmae

Aiel are stated to be experts at survival... Could they affect others through compulsion? I want to hear from cheeki about that after dawn but what would the books say?

True Aiel do not act in such ways. We are experts at survival, but through other means. When the moment comes, we will live or die honorably.

[Zinto]

I am going to be in and out today but I will post as much as I can.

I really really really don't buy the Grover reveal. It doesn't make sense to me in terms of book lore. The use of the horn in book lore and the ruleset seemed to me like we would be able to summon our dead to help us out in some way. Which would make sense because they are not able to talk about the game outside of it even after dying.

[Zinto]

I will even

Vote Grover

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Either way I can't imagine that Grover is going to survive the lynch tonight. What it does do though, assuming the agents of shadow are responsible, is clear cheekimonk. Which is why it's important someone claims the action if they did it.

I did it. I am a male and used my power to channel on another voter. I will not say who, and I do not know what my power will be before I use it. After using it I was given the opportunity that whoever I voted for, the person I had targeted would also count as my vote, even if they voted for someone else.

I saved myself because of my role. Yes, losing Jackal is hard, especially with no lynch.

Did I make a huge miscalculation on the game for the Light's chances of winning? Entirely possible, but it was a chance I had to take.

I am likely dead to rights after today. I have nothing to hide now.

[Zinto]

Like Narcizo I would like to know if a villager did something but if no one comes forward I don't see how we cannot lynch Grover today.

[Grover]

vote Zinto

Jackal had misgivings about Zinto's possible role. I think there is something to that.

[Zinto]

And now I am even more comfortable with my vote after what Grover revealed. I still do not buy it. In more general terms I would like to see the UTR players contribute some more today.

[Grover]

My honesty shall be my doom.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Grover

vote Zinto

Jackal had misgivings about Zinto's possible role. I think there is something to that.

I am pretty sure if Jackal had any information on me being bad he would have came out and said it. He thought he was not going to make it through the night and said so multiple times. Jackal knows what he is doing and wouldn't have take that information to the grave.

[Zinto]

Grover why did you not reveal earlier? You were asked multiple times in thread to reveal and yet chose to wait. And with what happened to Eagle the day before you must have known the risk involved with a late reveal.

[cheekimonk]

I was actually going to take my vote off Grover if space cleared and I was around because I said I would (I don't like sitting on one person that long). Space cleared (it was 7-4 at one point) but I was already out of pocket. However, there was a last-second intervention that clearly benefited Grover. I don't see any other way for that to be interpreted because it sure as hell didn't benefit me. If it was just meant to sow dissent among the village it was an expensive sacrifice for the dark as they would have to prefer losing a villager to a lynch. All that said...

vote Grover