WW LII -- Clue (SOCIALITES WIN)

[path12]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Hey guys... I'm kind of in a similar situation as Lathum, as my mother is in the hospital from a stroke, so I am a bit sleep deprived and generally out of it.

Swaggs, best wishes to you, your mom and your family.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

Does a secret passageway count as an adjacent room?

that is a real good question path. When we first learned of them my thought is yes. If the hints that iam hearing about rooms is correctthat those passage ways are to another room on the edge. (Or have we seen an interior room mentioned yet?)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

the problem with this strategy is that the cleared and uncleared rooms are in close proximity. one could hide in a cleared room, but that is probably next to an uncleared room. Shoot, it may be thier strategy to stay in a cleared area near several uncleared areas. Not sure how this would work cuz dont remember off the top of my head where the cleared rooms are. So staying in a cleared room is not that much of a better situation if they are looking for one of us.

Yes, ntn, as I and others pointed out earlier, if the wolves want you dead, they are pretty likely to do it, with 13/16 chance, and it doesn't really matter where you are. And if the murderer wants you dead, you're dead, short of a BG block.

Personally, if we could just clear all of the rooms (or get the "murder" room), we could be done with this business entirely with respect to the rooms. If all rooms have been visited or cleared or someone has a read on them that has been made public, there is no more incentive for the wolves to focus on uncleared rooms. They are as likely to find their targets elsewhere as there. Of course, "uncleared" rooms wouldn't really exist at that point, so it's moot.

In the end, I still believe that all information being out there only helps us. Right now, I would only hold back with secret passageway information, as that is different than would be logical, so it is an advantage to us that we not reveal that right now. Once all rooms are cleared, I don't think there will be anymore point in hiding the secret passageway info either, as the reason we would keep it secret is because of how the wolves could use it to find us checking uncleared rooms.

[ntndeacon]

Sorry to hear of your family's trouble, Swaggs. I hope she is able to recover fully.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

that is a real good question path. When we first learned of them my thought is yes. If the hints that iam hearing about rooms is correctthat those passage ways are to another room on the edge. (Or have we seen an interior room mentioned yet?)

I think it's in the rules actually. I know I have read Pass say that rooms on the edge are linked by secret passageways. Until this past deadline, it was my assumption (and others, too) that that connection was linear. It appears from several people's comments that that is not the case.

I would guess that if a room is connected by secret passageways, they are indeed adjacent (particularly from the wolves' kill perspective).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Sorry to hear of your family's trouble, Swaggs. I hope she is able to recover fully.

Ditto, sorry to hear it, Swaggs.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

that is a real good question path. When we first learned of them my thought is yes. If the hints that iam hearing about rooms is correctthat those passage ways are to another room on the edge. (Or have we seen an interior room mentioned yet?)

Mine went diagonally from a room on the left edge to a room on the right edge.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes, ntn, as I and others pointed out earlier, if the wolves want you dead, they are pretty likely to do it, with 13/16 chance, and it doesn't really matter where you are. And if the murderer wants you dead, you're dead, short of a BG block.

Personally, if we could just clear all of the rooms (or get the "murder" room), we could be done with this business entirely with respect to the rooms. If all rooms have been visited or cleared or someone has a read on them that has been made public, there is no more incentive for the wolves to focus on uncleared rooms. They are as likely to find their targets elsewhere as there. Of course, "uncleared" rooms wouldn't really exist at that point, so it's moot.

In the end, I still believe that all information being out there only helps us. Right now, I would only hold back with secret passageway information, as that is different than would be logical, so it is an advantage to us that we not reveal that right now. Once all rooms are cleared, I don't think there will be anymore point in hiding the secret passageway info either, as the reason we would keep it secret is because of how the wolves could use it to find us checking uncleared rooms.

Okay, ntndeacon nudged a bit, path prodded, and finally Rummy has persuaded me. This does make sense, in as much as the sooner there are no uncleared rooms, the sooner the wolves won't have any good room targets. I still would have preferred that noone had talked about rooms at all, but, well, you can't be a little bit pregnant, so here goes:

The murder was not commited in the basement.

By my count, that leaves five uncleared rooms, three weapons, and three suspects: st. cronin, Alan T, and Chief Rum.

First order of business at this point, is deciding which of these three deserves to die first.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes, ntn, as I and others pointed out earlier, if the wolves want you dead, they are pretty likely to do it, with 13/16 chance, and it doesn't really matter where you are. And if the murderer wants you dead, you're dead, short of a BG block.

Personally, if we could just clear all of the rooms (or get the "murder" room), we could be done with this business entirely with respect to the rooms. If all rooms have been visited or cleared or someone has a read on them that has been made public, there is no more incentive for the wolves to focus on uncleared rooms. They are as likely to find their targets elsewhere as there. Of course, "uncleared" rooms wouldn't really exist at that point, so it's moot.

In the end, I still believe that all information being out there only helps us. Right now, I would only hold back with secret passageway information, as that is different than would be logical, so it is an advantage to us that we not reveal that right now. Once all rooms are cleared, I don't think there will be anymore point in hiding the secret passageway info either, as the reason we would keep it secret is because of how the wolves could use it to find us checking uncleared rooms.

I agree with the information being out there. As well as keeping the secret passageway information for now.

Hopefully the "not a murderer" list isn't tainted. At least none of the skilled socialites got hit on night 1.

This game has me painting a lot of scenarios in my head on how we could attain a villager victory. I'm pretty much sure that Mrs. Peacock won't get lynched. We'll make sure of that. (well, I will, not sure about who else knows who she is. )

We need great timing on the wolf block, the kill by Mrs. White, and possibly Miss Scarlet's reveal (which would best be done when the murderer is gone. she could then reveal who the 5 other skilled socialites are, of course without revealing their individual roles.)

Bah. I'll sleep on it, and see what pops into my head tomorrow.

[Crim]

Chief Rum - almost certainly not the murderer, he's been pushing from the beginning to share all info. Granted, he could be muddying the waters with his clues, but I haven't seen any inconsistencies versus the rest of our info. Chief has cleared the Living Room, and Telle. Neither of these have been corroborated. Chief was one of only two players to vote for a lynching on night 1: st. cronin was his vote.

st. cronin - has seemed against clue sharing since the start. Granted, so have some others, but only st. cronin, saldana, and path have not shared anything with us. Of the three suspects, cronin has seemed the UTR-est.

Alan T - Was the first to share his clues: Revolver, and Daddy Torgo. Ballsy move for the murderer, chancing that noone else had those clues. Now, let's say Alan is the murderer... he could claim to clear the room and the weapon, and noone would say a word. But clearing DT, with no way of knowing if someone else would get DT as a clue, this validates Alan, in my opinion.

Okay, to me, the evidence I have points to:

VOTE ST. CRONIN

Bearing in mind possible disinformation that may be in the public record, I feel pretty good about this vote. And I'd better, because I'm not likely to be back on until late Thursday night.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Mine went diagonally from a room on the left edge to a room on the right edge.

That goes against what I learned from my room, so that is good. That means the passageways don't all go the same. I was concerned that if there was an underlying logic to the passageway directions, that the wolves could use a revelation like this to advantage. Still, rather risky, path.

[Crim]

I'm wondering. If we do lynch the murderer, the night "suggestions" we send would just be rooms then, right? Since we'd still have to avoid the Lon Chaneys, but wouldn't care a whit about how or where st. cro-- err, the murderer did his foul deed.

Correct? And Passaglia could stop sending nightly clues. So, in effect, we're making the GM's job easier, so i say, let's get this lynching right, and right now!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Hopefully the "not a murderer" list isn't tainted. At least none of the skilled socialites got hit on night 1.

This game has me painting a lot of scenarios in my head on how we could attain a villager victory. I'm pretty much sure that Mrs. Peacock won't get lynched. We'll make sure of that. (well, I will, not sure about who else knows who she is. )

Well, we have to assume there is some taintedness to it. But it is hard to start looking at the list again when there are people who still haven't been cleared by someone. At least once the list is covered, we can start to go back through it, and see if we have any contradictions.

As for Peacock, she is number one on my trust list, and I would certainly join with you in keeping her around. I would assume any vote for her would be a suggestion that voter is either a socialite, a wolf or the murderer. That would be a very dangerous vote to make, no matter what role that person is.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Crim

Chief Rum - almost certainly not the murderer, he's been pushing from the beginning to share all info. Granted, he could be muddying the waters with his clues, but I haven't seen any inconsistencies versus the rest of our info. Chief has cleared the Living Room, and Telle. Neither of these have been corroborated. Chief was one of only two players to vote for a lynching on night 1: st. cronin was his vote.

I would certainly like someone to come out and clear me, as it is rather incongruous for me to be on this list. But thank you for viewing my actions as not being wolfish.

As for voting for st.cronin, that is certainly where I am looking right now, as well, of course, given I voted for him yesterday. I don't want to pile on to your vote just now, though. I will wait until closer to deadline and see what other people say when they check in.

[Crim]

Yah, pretty much all yall bastitches are untrustworthy in my book, cept for Peacock. Between her and Scarlett, the wolves are toast if we can string up the murderer quickly enough. I'm not likely to get back on before Thursday deadline, but I'd love for some of you more experienced WW-ers to pick apart my vote post. Including, of course, the three suspects I mentioned; I'd like to hear their take on what I've outlined.

Chief, as long as you're around, how bout it? Granted, I don't think you're acting like a murderer (or maybe you're a freaking BRILLIANT murderer!), but to me, you and RendeR pushing so hard for room info smelled rather, umm, Canis lupus of both of you. (yes, I had to look that up)

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would certainly like someone to come out and clear me, as it is rather incongruous for me to be on this list. But thank you for viewing my actions as not being wolfish.

Cross posted, Chief. Actually, you're prolly number two, behind RendeR, on my "most likely to wake the neighbors with nocturnal howling" list.

I'll be impressed if you are the murderer, but I'd say it's more likely at this point that st.cronin or Alan, or a falsely-cleared-other-player is the culprit rather than you.

But just as the play of you and RendeR make you unlikely killer candidates, it also makes you likely wolves, imo, because I still stand by the thought that we should have kept the room info secret, and the two of you seemed very resistant to what I thought were pretty clear reasons for not sharing rooms.

I, and prolly a couple others, finally caved, mostly because at a certain point so many rooms had been cleared, that it really does make sense to get them all out of the way to eliminate the room-occupancy threat from the wolves.

[Crim]

Okee, it's 1:38am eastern, and I'm gonna be tired and grumpy all day tomorrow. So g'nite all, and I hope I'm still around Thursday nite!

[Chief Rum]

Well, I'm not a wolf. That I assure you.

I have already stated how I felt about st.cronin.

I'm okay with Alan right now. He was actually the first one advocating full disclosure. Seems too ballsy to be a move to cover as the murderer. I reserve the right to change that if we get more information on him, of course.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Crim

Cross posted, Chief. Actually, you're prolly number two, behind RendeR, on my "most likely to wake the neighbors with nocturnal howling" list.

I'll be impressed if you are the murderer, but I'd say it's more likely at this point that st.cronin or Alan, or a falsely-cleared-other-player is the culprit rather than you.

But just as the play of you and RendeR make you unlikely killer candidates, it also makes you likely wolves, imo, because I still stand by the thought that we should have kept the room info secret, and the two of you seemed very resistant to what I thought were pretty clear reasons for not sharing rooms.

I, and prolly a couple others, finally caved, mostly because at a certain point so many rooms had been cleared, that it really does make sense to get them all out of the way to eliminate the room-occupancy threat from the wolves.

Oh got it. I misread this the first time. Your post was aimed at finding the murderer. Threw me for a sec.

Well, yeah, not likely to be the murderer doesn't mean I am not a wolf (technically). But as I say above, I am not a wolf.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

I agree with the information being out there. As well as keeping the secret passageway information for now.

Hopefully the "not a murderer" list isn't tainted. At least none of the skilled socialites got hit on night 1.

This game has me painting a lot of scenarios in my head on how we could attain a villager victory. I'm pretty much sure that Mrs. Peacock won't get lynched. We'll make sure of that. (well, I will, not sure about who else knows who she is. )

We need great timing on the wolf block, the kill by Mrs. White, and possibly Miss Scarlet's reveal (which would best be done when the murderer is gone. she could then reveal who the 5 other skilled socialites are, of course without revealing their individual roles.)

Bah. I'll sleep on it, and see what pops into my head tomorrow.

This part of your post bothers me. Either you're really bad at thinking things through, which means you have real issues plying this game, or you're a very bad wolf. Its rather painfully obvious that if Scarlett reveals, the wolves will quite literally eat the primaries alive. As they'll know exactly who is who. Since the names are EQUATED TO THE ROLES IN THE RULES. They could then pick off the BG, followed by the seer(s) and then finish off the villagers with no threats to themselves. Miss Scarlett has, in no way whatsoever, a good time to reveal, she should never state who the 6 primaries are because if she does she signs their death warrants and hands the game to the wolves. You've just pasted yourself squarely in my wolfy suspect list.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by RendeR

This part of your post bothers me. Either you're really bad at thinking things through, which means you have real issues plying this game, or you're a very bad wolf. Its rather painfully obvious that if Scarlett reveals, the wolves will quite literally eat the primaries alive. As they'll know exactly who is who. Since the names are EQUATED TO THE ROLES IN THE RULES. They could then pick off the BG, followed by the seer(s) and then finish off the villagers with no threats to themselves. Miss Scarlett has, in no way whatsoever, a good time to reveal, she should never state who the 6 primaries are because if she does she signs their death warrants and hands the game to the wolves. You've just pasted yourself squarely in my wolfy suspect list.

Quoting my own post to break it up (hopefully) since my edit mode is ignoring my spacing completely right now.

[RendeR]

WTF? alright, I'm out for tonight as it appears my ability to post properly is somehow fucked tonight.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Crim

but only st. cronin, saldana, and path have not shared anything with us.

Ahem. Yes I have.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That goes against what I learned from my room, so that is good. That means the passageways don't all go the same. I was concerned that if there was an underlying logic to the passageway directions, that the wolves could use a revelation like this to advantage. Still, rather risky, path.

I knew from yours and Alan's descriptions that mine was different which is why I put it out there.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

This part of your post bothers me. Either you're really bad at thinking things through, which means you have real issues plying this game, or you're a very bad wolf. Its rather painfully obvious that if Scarlett reveals, the wolves will quite literally eat the primaries alive. As they'll know exactly who is who. Since the names are EQUATED TO THE ROLES IN THE RULES. They could then pick off the BG, followed by the seer(s) and then finish off the villagers with no threats to themselves. Miss Scarlett has, in no way whatsoever, a good time to reveal, she should never state who the 6 primaries are because if she does she signs their death warrants and hands the game to the wolves. You've just pasted yourself squarely in my wolfy suspect list.

I think he was saying just name the people who are named socialites, not their actual roles.

But for the reason you stated, I'm against the idea at this time. I believe Scarlett should stay quiet.

[Alan T]

I knew going into today who I would likely vote for when I brought this idea up. The thing that concerns me is that it was such an obvious choice to me that I would imagine the FBI agent going the same route as well. I mean going into last night, there was a list of 4 people for him to check in. The fact the FBI agent hasn't come out pointing his finger at who I thought was the obvious choice concerns me.

I still think we should pursue my idea of having today's vote being among the non-cleared (for murderer), but the fact the FBI agent didn't nail the murderer last night with even such a small pool starts making me wonder if a wolf did cover for the murderer with the day 1 clues. The Wolves know who the murderer is and vice versa, if one of them had gotten my name for instance as an original clue, all they would have had to do would be swap out my name for the murderer and we go chasing our tail.

I don't think we get anywhere without pursuing what is in front of us however, so I feel strongly that we should still go after one of the people not vouched for, I know who I would vote for if i had to do it now. Luckily I don't have to though and will wait a bit to see what else people reveal from last night.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by path12

If we lynch the murderer, don't we extend the game for the wolves? I'd think that someone solving the case is the best way to end the game. It's an individual rather than a group victory, but it is definitely not a wolf win.

Well one issue we might need to contend with is what do we do if we've identified the murderer before we've identified the room and weapon? As you've pointed out, lynching the murderer extends the game for the wolves.. but how long can we afford to let the murderer kill every night while we try to figure out the other two clues?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I knew going into today who I would likely vote for when I brought this idea up. The thing that concerns me is that it was such an obvious choice to me that I would imagine the FBI agent going the same route as well. I mean going into last night, there was a list of 4 people for him to check in. The fact the FBI agent hasn't come out pointing his finger at who I thought was the obvious choice concerns me.

I still think we should pursue my idea of having today's vote being among the non-cleared (for murderer), but the fact the FBI agent didn't nail the murderer last night with even such a small pool starts making me wonder if a wolf did cover for the murderer with the day 1 clues. The Wolves know who the murderer is and vice versa, if one of them had gotten my name for instance as an original clue, all they would have had to do would be swap out my name for the murderer and we go chasing our tail.

I don't think we get anywhere without pursuing what is in front of us however, so I feel strongly that we should still go after one of the people not vouched for, I know who I would vote for if i had to do it now. Luckily I don't have to though and will wait a bit to see what else people reveal from last night.

I'm assuming you're talking about st. cronin? It looks like a number of us have found him to be suspect.

But here's an alternate theory (and be warned, I've had theories in the past that I was all excited about but then got totally blown out of the water). The only other player to completely refuse to give out any clues is saldana. He was cleared by Barkeep. Now I recall the first WW game I watched Barkeep was VERY vociferous that everyone should share any and all information that they have.. but in this game, although he has shared his clues, he's been rather silent on the issue. Could it be that he's a wolf and he's covering for the murderer (saldana)?

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by RendeR

This part of your post bothers me. Either you're really bad at thinking things through, which means you have real issues plying this game, or you're a very bad wolf. Its rather painfully obvious that if Scarlett reveals, the wolves will quite literally eat the primaries alive. As they'll know exactly who is who. Since the names are EQUATED TO THE ROLES IN THE RULES. They could then pick off the BG, followed by the seer(s) and then finish off the villagers with no threats to themselves. Miss Scarlett has, in no way whatsoever, a good time to reveal, she should never state who the 6 primaries are because if she does she signs their death warrants and hands the game to the wolves. You've just pasted yourself squarely in my wolfy suspect list.

????

I did think it through. Maybe you are just bad at understanding?

Scarlet can reveal just say that these are the skilled socialites. No role names, no role descriptions, just a list of 5 people. Five people who are automatically cleared as villagers.

The wolves will then have to scramble to pick who is the BG, who is the seer... etc. Enough time for the villagers to actually figure out who to lynch in the coming days.

And now you've pasted yourself in my wolf list.

[Telle]

I'm not sure it's a good idea for Scarlett to make the reveal until the murderer's been taken care of. Normally a 6-person CoT would be a huge advantage for the village.. but with the high odds that the bad guys can off two people a night, that could be whittled away quite fast.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

????

I did think it through. Maybe you are just bad at understanding?

Scarlet can reveal just say that these are the skilled socialites. No role names, no role descriptions, just a list of 5 people. Five people who are automatically cleared as villagers.

The wolves will then have to scramble to pick who is the BG, who is the seer... etc. Enough time for the villagers to actually figure out who to lynch in the coming days.

And now you've pasted yourself in my wolf list.

Think about it a little longer. if Scarlett reveals and tells who the other 5 are, what happens now? Those 5 start dying, quickly as the wolves can try killing 3 a night. You've taken the wolves target pool down from 12 or so to a total of 6, now not only do they kill a socialite in general, but they have a 1 in 6 chance of killing the seer as oppose to a 1 in 12?

Its NOT a smart move.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm not sure it's a good idea for Scarlett to make the reveal until the murderer's been taken care of. Normally a 6-person CoT would be a huge advantage for the village.. but with the high odds that the bad guys can off two people a night, that could be whittled away quite fast.

Exactly, that's what I said earlier.

Once the murderer is gone, that seems to be the moment when all the socialites powers manage to kick in full-swing to help the villagers.

That's why we need to get the murderer ASAP. The longer he's out there, the more 2-kill nights we're going to have.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Think about it a little longer. if Scarlett reveals and tells who the other 5 are, what happens now? Those 5 start dying, quickly as the wolves can try killing 3 a night. You've taken the wolves target pool down from 12 or so to a total of 6, now not only do they kill a socialite in general, but they have a 1 in 6 chance of killing the seer as oppose to a 1 in 12?

Its NOT a smart move.

How do we know there are three wolves? I had assumed with the murderer out there that there would be only 2 wolves originally. With 2 kills last night, I'm guessing they covered the rooms instead of doing individual kills (or they were just lucky to get one), but full coverage of the rooms would require 4 wolves. A few people have seemed pretty set on there being 3 wolves and I'm wondering if I missed something in the rules.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm assuming you're talking about st. cronin? It looks like a number of us have found him to be suspect.

But here's an alternate theory (and be warned, I've had theories in the past that I was all excited about but then got totally blown out of the water). The only other player to completely refuse to give out any clues is saldana. He was cleared by Barkeep. Now I recall the first WW game I watched Barkeep was VERY vociferous that everyone should share any and all information that they have.. but in this game, although he has shared his clues, he's been rather silent on the issue. Could it be that he's a wolf and he's covering for the murderer (saldana)?

Or could it be, as I said last game and in the build-up to this game, that I was going to play it more cool during the first couple of days? And why should I push so hard for reveals when that's already been going on?

So basically I've not been as vociferous (great word btw) because:
1. I said I wasn't going to be
and
2. I haven't needed to be

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Think about it a little longer. if Scarlett reveals and tells who the other 5 are, what happens now? Those 5 start dying, quickly as the wolves can try killing 3 a night. You've taken the wolves target pool down from 12 or so to a total of 6, now not only do they kill a socialite in general, but they have a 1 in 6 chance of killing the seer as oppose to a 1 in 12?

Its NOT a smart move.

You're thinking like it should be done as soon as possible. Far from it. Scarlett should do her reveal with excellent timing.

As I said earlier. The murderer has to be dead.

I have no idea how many wolves there are. With some luck, a wolf block, a good kill from Mrs. White and TIMING Scarlett's reveal, as well as the seer's, would be w win-win situation. By that time, who knows, the Wolves could have painted themselves into a corner by their voting record.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Think about it a little longer. if Scarlett reveals and tells who the other 5 are, what happens now? Those 5 start dying, quickly as the wolves can try killing 3 a night. You've taken the wolves target pool down from 12 or so to a total of 6, now not only do they kill a socialite in general, but they have a 1 in 6 chance of killing the seer as oppose to a 1 in 12?

Its NOT a smart move.

I agree that Scarlett should never reveal, except possibly 1 name to save herself, as that would just put a huge target on those people, whether or not the murderer is around. The wolves have to be afraid of not only their seer and the bg, but also Mrs. Peacock, who most people know the identity of and they don't. They've got to be afraid of slipping up and voting for her.

[Neon_Chaos]

that's "would be a win-win situation"

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

You're thinking like it should be done as soon as possible. Far from it. Scarlett should do her reveal with excellent timing.

As I said earlier. The murderer has to be dead.

I have no idea how many wolves there are. With some luck, a wolf block, a good kill from Mrs. White and TIMING Scarlett's reveal, as well as the seer's, would be w win-win situation. By that time, who knows, the Wolves could have painted themselves into a corner by their voting record.

That's an awful lot of good luck.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm assuming you're talking about st. cronin? It looks like a number of us have found him to be suspect.

But here's an alternate theory (and be warned, I've had theories in the past that I was all excited about but then got totally blown out of the water). The only other player to completely refuse to give out any clues is saldana. He was cleared by Barkeep. Now I recall the first WW game I watched Barkeep was VERY vociferous that everyone should share any and all information that they have.. but in this game, although he has shared his clues, he's been rather silent on the issue. Could it be that he's a wolf and he's covering for the murderer (saldana)?

After all the discussion yesterday I feel rather good about Cronin actually. Nothing specific, but just the gist of his PoV and the rehashing of all our comments leaves me feeling that while I may wonder at his allegience, I suspect others far more.

Alan I'm on the fence about. His arguments back and forth have been a little on both sides of things, he could be trying to be the social butterfly and avoid suspicion that way.

Who else are we considering? barkeep? I've basically cleared him as the murderer, but he could well be a wolf, he is quite good at it. The non disclosure of information makes me wonder but as that only really affects the murderer I'm not sure it relates to him. Unless of course he's trying to protect the murderer for some reason.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

That's an awful lot of good luck.

Yup.

That's why I said that I was just painting scenarios for a villager victory.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

How do we know there are three wolves? I had assumed with the murderer out there that there would be only 2 wolves originally. With 2 kills last night, I'm guessing they covered the rooms instead of doing individual kills (or they were just lucky to get one), but full coverage of the rooms would require 4 wolves. A few people have seemed pretty set on there being 3 wolves and I'm wondering if I missed something in the rules.

Conventional wisdom as I have known it has been at least one bad guy per six players, and I have found it usually trends a little higher.

We have 19 players. That's three and small change bad guys, and if it trends higher, as I suggest, that means four bad guys. One murderer, three wolves.

It could be two wolves, sure, but that seems light to me with 19 players, especially when one of the bad guys can't communicate with the others. And it doesn't hurt us at all to assume at least three wolves. Assuming more evil doesn't hurt us; only assuming less.

If there are only two wolves in this game, to go along with the murderer, I will be shocked.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Or could it be, as I said last game and in the build-up to this game, that I was going to play it more cool during the first couple of days?

Could very well be. But you of all people know the value in looking at multiple suspects.. so I figured I'd toss something out there that has some level of thought in it.

I think st. cronin is the main suspect today. If we lynch him and he turns out to not be the murderer, then I'd personally look at saldana next.. and if he is the murderer then, well, we've got you as a wolf too

[RendeR]

Let me correct myself, BK Did in fact give us two names. My bad on that BK, its stille arly and I'm not all with it yet.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Conventional wisdom as I have known it has been at least one bad guy per six players, and I have found it usually trends a little higher.

We have 19 players. That's three and small change bad guys, and if it trends higher, as I suggest, that means four bad guys. One murderer, three wolves.

It could be two wolves, sure, but that seems light to me with 19 players, especially when one of the bad guys can't communicate with the others. And it doesn't hurt us at all to assume at least three wolves. Assuming more evil doesn't hurt us; only assuming less.

If there are only two wolves in this game, to go along with the murderer, I will be shocked.

I think I'm seeing this game very differently than alot of people.

My take was that Passacaglia wanted a more wide open game of.. "Who can you really trust" He created bad sides that know each other but couldn't necessarily trust each other. He created a good side with the ability to go rogue with each other... I have to guess that how the majority of people are treating an individual victory as an unwritten minor victory was not his intent nor in his design. Basing my thoughts around what his "design" might have been, I personally was thinking that the individual bad guys also had special abilities like many of the good roles do, to balance things out. We already know that each wolf can make a kill, I'm guessing there would be other wolf mechanics out there as well. (Each can make a conversion? or there are brutal wolves, or cunning wolves, or who knows what).

I guess my point is, my take on this entire game is that while there are teams, it feels very individualistic , so I am trying to take that into my consideration of the balance. I understand that I'm in a severe minority on how I am viewing the intent of the game balance though.

[DaddyTorgo]

so cronin/alan/rum are the only uncleared ones still? no more recent information than that regarding the murderer?

do we have a strong-enough parallel discussion going on who the wolves might be? i know i've seen mention of barkeep, but that's the only thing i've seen...

[DaddyTorgo]

loving the fact this game is very active right now.

wb WW!

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

loving the fact this game is very active right now.

wb WW!

I think the earlier deadline really helps with that. It pretty much forces people to discuss things during the day, when normally it's quite dead then.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think I'm seeing this game very differently than alot of people.

My take was that Passacaglia wanted a more wide open game of.. "Who can you really trust" He created bad sides that know each other but couldn't necessarily trust each other. He created a good side with the ability to go rogue with each other... I have to guess that how the majority of people are treating an individual victory as an unwritten minor victory was not his intent nor in his design. Basing my thoughts around what his "design" might have been, I personally was thinking that the individual bad guys also had special abilities like many of the good roles do, to balance things out. We already know that each wolf can make a kill, I'm guessing there would be other wolf mechanics out there as well. (Each can make a conversion? or there are brutal wolves, or cunning wolves, or who knows what).

I guess my point is, my take on this entire game is that while there are teams, it feels very individualistic , so I am trying to take that into my consideration of the balance. I understand that I'm in a severe minority on how I am viewing the intent of the game balance though.

Understood. But regardless, assuming two wolves can hurt us. It does us no harm to assume three at a minimum. If it turns out there are less of them around, great. But I don't want to make big village plans based on the idea that there are only two when the numbers alone suggest there are likely as not more. So I say let's quash that idea real quick before we start thinking that way, you know?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

After all the discussion yesterday I feel rather good about Cronin actually. Nothing specific, but just the gist of his PoV and the rehashing of all our comments leaves me feeling that while I may wonder at his allegience, I suspect others far more.

Alan I'm on the fence about. His arguments back and forth have been a little on both sides of things, he could be trying to be the social butterfly and avoid suspicion that way.

Who else are we considering? barkeep? I've basically cleared him as the murderer, but he could well be a wolf, he is quite good at it. The non disclosure of information makes me wonder but as that only really affects the murderer I'm not sure it relates to him. Unless of course he's trying to protect the murderer for some reason.

I don't really think its fair to say I've been back and forth on things. I've been open about my thoughts, I've been vocal about my thoughts.. but I've all along said we should reveal murderer information (I was the first to suggest it and first to do it). I originally pushed for revealing all informaiton and backed off on the rooms and weapons now pushing for that to not be revealed and have very clearly stated my reasons why. You (and pretty much almost everyone else) seem to disagree with me, thats fine.... you can disagree with me, but at least pretend to understand where I am coming from

I don't think I've been back and forth on anything, I've changed my mind about one major thing all game and given very detailed reasons why. I've dropped that whole discussion understanding that you all are playing the game in a way that I don't think the GM intended, but I am holding no hard feelings about it. Please show me the same respect

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think I'm seeing this game very differently than alot of people.

My take was that Passacaglia wanted a more wide open game of.. "Who can you really trust" He created bad sides that know each other but couldn't necessarily trust each other. He created a good side with the ability to go rogue with each other... I have to guess that how the majority of people are treating an individual victory as an unwritten minor victory was not his intent nor in his design. Basing my thoughts around what his "design" might have been, I personally was thinking that the individual bad guys also had special abilities like many of the good roles do, to balance things out. We already know that each wolf can make a kill, I'm guessing there would be other wolf mechanics out there as well. (Each can make a conversion? or there are brutal wolves, or cunning wolves, or who knows what).

I guess my point is, my take on this entire game is that while there are teams, it feels very individualistic , so I am trying to take that into my consideration of the balance. I understand that I'm in a severe minority on how I am viewing the intent of the game balance though.

Hrm, I discount the idea that the wolves have any abilities beyond all of them having the ability to kill. Pass is gerneraly pretty thorough and he makes no mention of undisclosed roles or role abilities within the rules. And given the fact that you're position on the victory conditions is so RAW (Rules As Written), I have to wonder why you would be reading things into the game on one issue and patently refusing to read more into them on another.