The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[flere-imsaho]

I am a loss thinking what might get Trump to drop out at this point, barring actual death.

[Edward64]

Didn't realize the DeSantis-Newsom debate was tonight. Don't think I'll have access to watch it but looking forward to reading about it tomorrow.

Red and blue America square off in clash of the governors

But Republican Florida governor Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom, his counterpart in Democratic California, will swap social media antagonism for an in-person televised debate Thursday that could be preview the White House race in 2028.

The pair represent almost one in five Americans -- California is the largest US state and Florida is third -- and debate host Fox News is billing the showdown as a clash between liberal blue and conservative red America.

[tarcone]

Media sure does promote division.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Didn't realize the DeSantis-Newsom debate was tonight. Don't think I'll have access to watch it but looking forward to reading about it tomorrow.

Red and blue America square off in clash of the governors

Why in the hell would DeSantis even agree to this?

[albionmoonlight]

Why does this exist at all?

Debates between candidates running for the same office at least let us evaluate them for that office.

But this is just a debate about . . . policy I guess? And watching two dudes argue has to be the least effective way to make policy decisions out there.

I mean, who is thinking "Well, I was for more funding for border patrol, but then Newsome had a pretty good zinger about it, and DeSantis sort of stumbled over his rebuttal to that, so I am going to change my mind?"

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Why does this exist at all?

Debates between candidates running for the same office at least let us evaluate them for that office.

But this is just a debate about . . . policy I guess? And watching two dudes argue has to be the least effective way to make policy decisions out there.

I mean, who is thinking "Well, I was for more funding for border patrol, but then Newsome had a pretty good zinger about it, and DeSantis sort of stumbled over his rebuttal to that, so I am going to change my mind?"

It makes sense for Newsome to boost himself nationally. I think the guy is really good at speaking policy and, no, it's not going to change anyone's mind. However, desantis' idea to boost his campaign is to debate someone that isn't running for President? I don't see any scenario where this is a positive for DeSantis.

[Ghost Econ]

Depends on the size of the lifts her wears as to how much of a boost he'll get.

[albionmoonlight]

I guess I'm just tired of the "Debate Me!" culture.



"I disagree with you that Lizard People from Mars are secretly controlling the Chinese government."

"Oh Yeah! If you are so sure about that, then DEBATE ME!"

"No. I am not going to debate you."

"Then I must be right because you are too scared to DEBATE ME!"

[RainMaker]

Phillips doesn't stand a chance but this is a horrible look.

Florida Democrats plan to cancel presidential primary, enraging Dean Phillips’ campaign - POLITICO


Florida Dems are such a disaster and need a complete overhaul.

[NobodyHere]

In a normal world I would agree with you.

But isn't this kind of standard procedure nowadays? Didn't the GOP give Trump a free ride through the 2020 primaries?

I need to look up Dean sometime.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

In a normal world I would agree with you.

But isn't this kind of standard procedure nowadays? Didn't the GOP give Trump a free ride through the 2020 primaries?

I need to look up Dean sometime.

It's stupid to have a primary at all if there's an incumbent president. Who's the last dem incumbent to face an actual opponent in a primary? Ted Kennedy v Carter?

Buchanan in '92 was probably the last threat to an incumbent at all.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Didn't realize the DeSantis-Newsom debate was tonight. Don't think I'll have access to watch it but looking forward to reading about it tomorrow.

Red and blue America square off in clash of the governors

Props to Newsome for doing this. Hannity has stacked this debate as far against Newsome as possible and DeSantis still comes off as being awful.

[Atocep]

Literal example of a question:

"Many people, myself included, feel Biden is in significant mental decline. Do you think he's up to the job?"

Another:

"Is inflation hurting your state, yes or no?"

Another:

My cherry picked stat shows there is more mass shootings in California than in Florida, but California has the strictest gun control in the country "do gun control laws work?"

[Atocep]

Taking the entire debate at face value with no context:

Slight win for Newsome. He's a strong debater and Ron either doesn't have the skills or doesn't put in the work. When you opponent is dropping number and after number after number and the best you can do is say something along the lines of "that's not true" then you're not prepared. Ron was able to land a few blows, but he really just didn't have many counters to the facts Newsome was hitting him with.

Looking at this debate with the context of Hannity hosting this on Fox News and loading or setting up every question to benefit DeSantis:

DeSantis got trounced. He's governor that could have coasted on the rep he had built, returned to Seanate after his current term, and then ran again as governor if he wanted.

Instead he's been exposed as not being a national candidate. He loves to bully people weaker than him or those without a voice, but he folds quick when challenged publicly. He has zero stage presence or charisma and looks like he is uncomfortable in his own skin anytime he's on a stage like this.

[RainMaker]

Newsom sucks but the one thing he is good at is debating. No clue why DeSantis would agree to that.

[BYU 14]

Didn't really want to waste 90 minutes of my life I would never get back, but let me guess.

Lot's of yelling and insults, very little in the way of policy and the typical attacks.

DeSantis - Your lockdowns in Covid hurt your states mental health.
Newsome - You nonchalance in Covid caused a higher percentage of your citizens to die.

DeSantis - California is lawless.
Newsome - What is your ratio of gun violence again?

DeSantis - You're a bully!
Newsome - You're a wanna be Dictator!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Didn't really want to waste 90 minutes of my life I would never get back, but let me guess.

Lot's of yelling and insults, very little in the way of policy and the typical attacks.

DeSantis - Your lockdowns in Covid hurt your states mental health.
Newsome - You nonchalance in Covid caused a higher percentage of your citizens to die.

DeSantis - California is lawless.
Newsome - What is your ratio of gun violence again?

DeSantis - You're a bully!
Newsome - You're a wanna be Dictator!

Every single topic Newsome would hit DeSantis with statistics and he didn't have a comeback. Hannity cherry picked crime rate data to show how safe Florida is in comparison to California and Newsome countered with violent crime and murder stats ro show Florida is exponentially more dangerous. The only thing DeSantis could do is continue to point to the numbers Hannity provided.

At one point DeSantis did call Newsome a bully. He also pulled a poop map out of his pocket to show people were pooping on streets in California? DeSantis is weird.

[RainMaker]

The 10 minutes I flipped over for was Newsome saying "you banned a lot of books, here's a list of some of them" and DeSantis saying "no I didn't" over and over.

I think the weird thing for me with DeSantis is he does stuff conservatives want and then denies them. You're doing a debate on Fox News man. You're running in a primary against Trump where your single best attack is that you actually do the stuff Trump says he'll do. Why fucking back down?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The 10 minutes I flipped over for was Newsome saying "you banned a lot of books, here's a list of some of them" and DeSantis saying "no I didn't" over and over.

I think the weird thing for me with DeSantis is he does stuff conservatives want and then denies them. You're doing a debate on Fox News man. You're running in a primary against Trump where your single best attack is that you actually do the stuff Trump says he'll do. Why fucking back down?

But he doesn't want to have to defend specific books that were banned. Or even specific actions he knows aren't as popular. Pick the popular actions and highlight that so that the other stuff is never focused on.

[flere-imsaho]

Or, he's just not very bright. But dogmatic and angry, which is what passes for bright in GOP circles these days.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The 10 minutes I flipped over for was Newsome saying "you banned a lot of books, here's a list of some of them" and DeSantis saying "no I didn't" over and over.

I think the weird thing for me with DeSantis is he does stuff conservatives want and then denies them. You're doing a debate on Fox News man. You're running in a primary against Trump where your single best attack is that you actually do the stuff Trump says he'll do. Why fucking back down?

So you don't buy the plausible deniability of not telling schools and libraries to ban books while signing into law ambiguous morality legislation that threatens potential financial and legal consequences if others don't ban books?

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Every single topic Newsome would hit DeSantis with statistics and he didn't have a comeback. Hannity cherry picked crime rate data to show how safe Florida is in comparison to California and Newsome countered with violent crime and murder stats ro show Florida is exponentially more dangerous. The only thing DeSantis could do is continue to point to the numbers Hannity provided.

At one point DeSantis did call Newsome a bully. He also pulled a poop map out of his pocket to show people were pooping on streets in California? DeSantis is weird.

Jesus, a poop map? DeSantis is the most awkward wanna be cool kid walking the planet.

[PilotMan]

Lots of fanboying out over that poop map though.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Lots of fanboying out over that poop map though.

Maybe that poop map is a map of DeSantis's fanboys.

[CrimsonFox]

lmao poopmap

[molson]

If you live in a poop map city, you kind of know where the poop is going to be, but also, I think non-poop city dwelling people underestimate what a big deal that can be.

[PilotMan]

It is a big deal. It's a systemic failure of some part of the economy. I was in SF the week of the Chinese visit, now we were far away on the north side by Fisherman's Warf, and not down near Union Square where we typically are, but even just driving through the city back and forth it was a marked difference. It's an issue you can't simply throw money at, and you can't force people to participate in things they won't. But at some point poop cities needs to get creative and they need to get realistic about the problem.

[Edward64]

Haley getting real. Article doesn't have specific details but good that she is willing to have a frank discussion on Social Security & Medicare. Hope this is a topic for the next debate in a couple days.

Nikki Haley wants to reform Social Security and Medicare. Donors are paying attention | CNN Politics

Haley has called for several changes to the nation’s safety net programs, including increasing the age at which today’s younger workers would become eligible for Social Security retirement benefits and limiting the growth of benefits the wealthy receive.

[miked]

How about just making the wealthy actually pay into it? If they increased the cap on when you stop paying into it, we may actually be able to keep it going.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by miked

How about just making the wealthy actually pay into it? If they increased the cap on when you stop paying into it, we may actually be able to keep it going.

That should be the first thing they do before anything else. Once you do that, then you can discuss what else needs to be done.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miked

How about just making the wealthy actually pay into it? If they increased the cap on when you stop paying into it, we may actually be able to keep it going.

See link, check out "Revenue" tab.

The Reformer: An Interactive Tool to Fix Social Security

Basically, that alone won't do it. It needs to be a combination of "other" stuff. And then you've got a political fight on what the "other" stuff is.

[JPhillips]

Don't pay any attention to a 75 year window.

But even given that, taxing all wages and increasing SS taxes by 1% covers 93% and keeps the trust fund positive until 2085.

[miked]

Yea, simply taxing over $400k makes up 65% or something and keeps it going until 2070 with no other changes.

[Edward64]

Last time social security was "fixed" for 75 years was in 1983. We'll be in trouble again in approx. 2034 or in 50 years (so 25 years ahead of schedule).

If you aim to fix it for 50 years, we'll have another crisis in 25-30-35 years for one reason or another.

re: taxing all wages, that would break Joe's promise (and Dems by extension) of only $400K or above. It's been a while since we've seen the 3rd rail at work (e.g. read my lips, no new taxes). Should be fun to see it happen again.

[GrantDawg]

Edward, then let them worry about it 20-30-40 years down the road. Why are we trying to fix something that hasn't even happened yet? Take the cap off, then you have decades before you have to worry about changing the age of retirement or increasing taxes/decreasing benefits.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Edward, then let them worry about it 20-30-40 years down the road. Why are we trying to fix something that hasn't even happened yet? Take the cap off, then you have decades before you have to worry about changing the age of retirement or increasing taxes/decreasing benefits.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

That is a fair question. And I don't know the answer. And the model doesn't give the ability to change from 75 to 50 to play around with the different options.

If we want to plan to fix the problem for 50 years with a fair chance of having to worry about it again in 30-35 years, I guess that's an option.

Or we can take this opportunity to do a wholesale fix and theoretically solve the problem for our < 18 children.


EDIT: it may have been tossed out there but I don't remember reading about Dems or GOP trying to reduce the fix from 75 to (let's say) 50 years. I'm going to assume there's probably a good actuarial and/or political reason for that. But I may well be wrong.

[miami_fan]

I have no clue what the line should be but this seems like a reasonable thought from the co-founder of Home Depot.

“What the hell is a guy like me (doing) getting $3,500 a month from the government?” Langone, whose net worth Forbes pegs at more than $7 billion, said of his monthly Social Security benefits. “That’s outrageous. I shouldn’t get a nickel.”

[albionmoonlight]

Programs for the poor turn into poor programs.

The only reason that SS has managed to survive is that middle and upperclass people have a stake in it.

If giving a billionaire $3,500/month means that the program continues to exist, I'm OK with that.

[JPhillips]

You can't make SS sustainable because as soon as you do the GOP will spend it on tax cuts. That's what happened in 2000 with the Bush tax cuts and Gore calling for a lock box.

[RainMaker]

I don't care about the Home Depot guy getting payments. It's such a minuscule amount of Social Security that it'd probably cost more to implement a system that has to look at your income or net worth and change payouts every year.

The solution has always been to remove the social security cap and to tax capital gains. Likely solves the problem right away.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Programs for the poor turn into poor programs.

The only reason that SS has managed to survive is that middle and upperclass people have a stake in it.

If giving a billionaire $3,500/month means that the program continues to exist, I'm OK with that.

It would be tough but if I have a net worth of more than $7 billion, I feel I would forgo my monthly payments and whatever I money I put into the system to keep it sustainable. That mindset is probably why I don't have a net worth of $7 billion.

[Atocep]

Christie just destroyed Ramaswamy.

[RainMaker]

He did work Vivek over but Haley is incredibly dumb.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He did work Vivek over but Haley is incredibly dumb.

She had a rough night. DeSantis probably came out of this one the best, which is stunning.

Christie seems to be trying to set Haley up when he drops out and she fumbled the ball tonight.

[RainMaker]

Genuinely laughed out loud at her TikTok riff.

[JPhillips]

Trump up 32 in the gold standard of Iowa polling.

[JPhillips]

dola

Trump: They’re poisoning the blood of country.. They poison mental institutions and prisons all over the world not just in South America… but all over the world they’re coming into our country from Africa, from Asia

Anybody willing to vote for this guy is a threat to American ideals.

[PilotMan]

I wonder if Steve King would like to toss his name in for VP? The shoe fits.

[JPhillips]

Seeing some excitement because in the latest NH poll Haley is only down by... 15.

lol Trump has already won.

[Izulde]

What's funny is if the Republicans run Haley, November turns into a red tsunami. Instead, they'll go with Trump and it'll again be a narrow election.