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Old 08-08-2007, 04:01 PM   #501
hoopsguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Here is my vote count:

ntndeacon (6)-- KWhit (212), Path12 (278), st.cronin (303), Barkeep49 (309), Lathum (310), hoopsguy (315)
Barkeep (4)-- Jonathan Ezarik (152), Passacaglia (283), PurdueBrad (291), MikeVic (302)
Path (1)-- ntndeacon (336)
st.cronin (1)-- DaddyTorgo (162)

Did not vote-- Celeval, Gonzo

I believe this is correct. ntndeacon is the choice. I will do the writeup.

Here are the final votes for yesterday - interesting that NTN didn't move his vote to try and let someone help him out at the end of the day.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:04 PM   #502
Passacaglia
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Here are the final votes for yesterday - interesting that NTN didn't move his vote to try and let someone help him out at the end of the day.

Yeah, I thought that was odd, too. I think he was just in a time crunch?
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:08 PM   #503
hoopsguy
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OK, here are my initial assumptions:
- Gonzo would have gotten a vote in if he were a wolf. Willing to come back to this one tomorrow, but for today I'll argue that wolves get their votes in.
- The wolves would not have voted together unless Barkeep was a wolf.

So the easiest one to isolate with those assumptions is the Torgo vote for Cronin - it is the only one cast by someone still alive that isn't on BK/NTN.

Next question - would Torgo go on a crusade against a player on Day 1 as a wolf? What does it get him? A lot of attention if we follow his lead at some point.

For now, I'll make that Assumption #3 on the day - DaddyTorgo is not a wolf. Might not be a correct assumption, but I'll advance with it for now unless someone has compelling info to the contrary.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:11 PM   #504
hoopsguy
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So once I get to that point, I'm left with the idea that there is one wolf voting for Barkeep and one voting for NTN. This, of course, assumes that we only have two wolves. Is that 100% spelled out in the rules? I know there are at least two wolves, but going from memory I don't recall seeing that there are only two wolves.

ntndeacon (6)-- KWhit (212), Path12 (278), st.cronin (303), Barkeep49 (309), Lathum (310), hoopsguy (315)

Barkeep (4)-- Jonathan Ezarik (152), Passacaglia (283), PurdueBrad (291), MikeVic (302)


Math would suggest that I should go for the 1 in 4 shot on Barkeep vs the 1 in 6 shot on NTN. But I know I'm not a wolf, so it is only a 1 in 5 shot on NTN. And, if Barkeep is a wolf then there are almost certainly two wolves in this group. I think this possibility is enough for me to pursue the 20% shot instead of the 25% shot - there is a reasonable chance that the 20% is actually a 40%.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:14 PM   #505
MikeVic
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Thanks for the answer hoops.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:17 PM   #506
DaddyTorgo
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my vote will have to go final in another hour. i'm going out to dinner and not sure when i'll be back, although i assume it should be before the deadline. but i will have a final vote i'm comfortable with first.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:19 PM   #507
KWhit
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo View Post
my vote will have to go final in another hour. i'm going out to dinner and not sure when i'll be back, although i assume it should be before the deadline. but i will have a final vote i'm comfortable with first.

I have to make a possible final vote too cause I don't know if I'll be back by lynch or not either.

And I just don't have a clue who to vote for.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:20 PM   #508
KWhit
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MikeVic, you around?
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:20 PM   #509
KWhit
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You have made a couple of comments about me being suspicious... Any reason why that is?
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:21 PM   #510
MikeVic
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I'm here.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:22 PM   #511
PurdueBrad
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Hey guys, I've read through the last few pages several times and am, like yesterday, torn with how to vote. Right now, based on the give and take that Cronin put out there, I'm leaning towards a vote that way. I've got softball playoffs tonight, so I may not make it back for the deadline. Right now:

I vote Cronin
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:22 PM   #512
MikeVic
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
You have made a couple of comments about me being suspicious... Any reason why that is?

Nothing today, but yesterday I was going on NTN not being a wolf. And both you and path voted for him before anyone else, so it got me being suspicious. That's all I have though.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:23 PM   #513
hoopsguy
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By the way, please feel free to interrupt my stream-of-consciousness voting thoughts

ntndeacon (6)-- KWhit (212), Path12 (278), st.cronin (303), Barkeep49 (309), Lathum (310), hoopsguy (315)


The Barkeep vote here can easily be argued as self-defense. Other votes here were positioned as votes to help keep me around. Time to go pull posts on these to see what people said.

KWhit - voted based on low activity (although right in line with usual NTN play) and not picking a side in BK/Hoops argument

Path - no reason given in voting post, but post #286 explains that he wanted to help take heat off of me

Cronin - moves vote, says he believes we will benefit from having both BK and me around. BK had four votes at that point, this now brought it to 4-3 between BK and NTN.

Barkeep - self-defense, NTN is dangerous under-the-radar player

Lathum - "lets keep it close", post comes in at exact same time as BK's. Sounds like he wanted to force the tie here with lots of time remaining.

Hoops - out for duration, has to get vote in now, want to put it on one of leaders to not waste vote. Trusts BK more.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:25 PM   #514
KWhit
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Originally Posted by MikeVic View Post
Nothing today, but yesterday I was going on NTN not being a wolf. And both you and path voted for him before anyone else, so it got me being suspicious. That's all I have though.

Heh. If everybody who had a screw-up vote on day 1 was a wolf, there'd be no villagers for them to eat.

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Old 08-08-2007, 04:26 PM   #515
Lathum
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i find your play intresting lathum. you're voting with me, yet arguing against me.

I think I have been clear why.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:26 PM   #516
Barkeep49
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The most interesting thing to me was that ntn didn't vote for me to save himself. I'm not sure we're going to learn a whole lot about the day's lynch at this point in the game. In fact in general I think voting patterns are normally useless until we have caught a wolf.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:27 PM   #517
DaddyTorgo
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sweet jesus that's some beautiful analysis hoops.

i am indeed a villager. like we were discussing...just had a gut feeling on cronin.

i still have my gut feeling on cronin, but am willing to go elsewhere if there's no support for it, if it is necessary or shows something good via your analysis hoops
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:28 PM   #518
Barkeep49
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DOLA -- I will also be making a tentative vote. I should be home before deadline, but if the juveniles of my city have been particularly unruly it's possible I'd be home too late.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:28 PM   #519
hoopsguy
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Highest reward play, as I see it, is to vote for Barkeep here. That way we learn if there is any real value to extract from votes yesterday. People have commented that there was a surge towards NTN, which is often associated with wolf movement. And putting an early vote on me isn't the dumbest idea, as I'll usually talk enough to give you a reason to move it later.

Only problem with this is that it contradicts the play I made yesterday, where I stated that I edged towards trust on BK based on his unconventional play. Different day, different info to evaluate, all that good stuff, but I still struggle internally with pulling a 180 degree turn.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:30 PM   #520
hoopsguy
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Barkeep, if voting records have minimal worth, I'm willing to listen to other avenues to pursue to guide the vote here.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:31 PM   #521
KWhit
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Barkeep, if voting records have minimal worth, I'm willing to listen to other avenues to pursue to guide the vote here.

No kidding. Me too. I'm at a loss right now.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:34 PM   #522
MikeVic
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The only vote I can make right now would be cronin, and that's because he voted for me and I know I'm not a wolf. But of course that's easy to see through my eyes. Other than that, I don't know who else to vote for right now.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:34 PM   #523
DaddyTorgo
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you could vote with my gut?
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:34 PM   #524
KWhit
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I think I'm leaning toward voting Path or st.cronin as they were the 1st two to follow me onto ntndeacon, and I agree that one out of the ntndeacon voters is likely a wolf.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:37 PM   #525
KWhit
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
I think I'm leaning toward voting Path or st.cronin as they were the 1st two to follow me onto ntndeacon, and I agree that one out of the ntndeacon voters is likely a wolf.

Of course voting for path would possibly be just throwing my vote away (it would be vote #1 on him) and voting for st.cronin puts him way ahead, and I think it's better for us if we keep the vote close until the end.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:37 PM   #526
DaddyTorgo
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
I think I'm leaning toward voting Path or st.cronin as they were the 1st two to follow me onto ntndeacon, and I agree that one out of the ntndeacon voters is likely a wolf.

well cronin already has 2 votes
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:38 PM   #527
KWhit
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo View Post
well cronin already has 2 votes

This is what I have. Is this right?

Cronin - Torgo (401), Lathum (456), PurdueBrad (511)
MikeVic - Cronin (377)
Torgo - Path (426)
JE - Pass (452)
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:39 PM   #528
hoopsguy
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KWhit, I don't think it would be a throw-away, as Cronin is the only person with multiple votes. People are likely to consolidate around a second candidate rather than making this a Cronin runaway.

Votes as of Post #525:
Cronin - Torgo (401), Lathum (456), Purdue (511)
MikeVic - Cronin (377)
Torgo - Path (426)
JE - Pass (452)
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:41 PM   #529
DaddyTorgo
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and cronin also has others voting him based on evidence other than the evidence that i cited that went along with my initial gut-feeling.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:41 PM   #530
DaddyTorgo
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that's right 3. i forgot about the brad-vote
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:43 PM   #531
KWhit
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
KWhit, I don't think it would be a throw-away, as Cronin is the only person with multiple votes. People are likely to consolidate around a second candidate rather than making this a Cronin runaway.


Makes sense. I'm going with path based on my earlier stated reasons. I will likely be back before lynch, but may not, so this might be final.


VOTE PATH12
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:45 PM   #532
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Highest reward play, as I see it, is to vote for Barkeep here. That way we learn if there is any real value to extract from votes yesterday. People have commented that there was a surge towards NTN, which is often associated with wolf movement. And putting an early vote on me isn't the dumbest idea, as I'll usually talk enough to give you a reason to move it later.

Only problem with this is that it contradicts the play I made yesterday, where I stated that I edged towards trust on BK based on his unconventional play. Different day, different info to evaluate, all that good stuff, but I still struggle internally with pulling a 180 degree turn.
Let's just play it out. I will show up as a villager, so you learn that it was another typical day 1 villager vs villager situation. Obviously there is value if I'm a wolf, but I'm not so there's not.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:46 PM   #533
Barkeep49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Barkeep, if voting records have minimal worth, I'm willing to listen to other avenues to pursue to guide the vote here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
No kidding. Me too. I'm at a loss right now.

Well yes I'm at a loss too, quite frankly, hence my not having voted yet.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:47 PM   #534
Lathum
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DT's post are making him look more and more like someone who has been busted
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:47 PM   #535
Barkeep49
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Ok, I'm going to go ahead and vote. I don't really like anyone, but the closest to anything at the moment is Mike Vic and his confidence, as has been shown, in multiple people, at least two of whom (me and ntn), I know to be villagers. So much confidence in villagers on Day 1 suggests to me it could be a rookie mistake.

Vote MikeVic
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:48 PM   #536
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
DT's post are making him look more and more like someone who has been busted
????
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:51 PM   #537
hoopsguy
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Votes as of Post #535:
Cronin - Torgo (401), Lathum (456), Purdue (511)
MikeVic - Cronin (377), Barkeep (535)
Torgo - Path (426)
JE - Pass (452)
Path - KWhit (532)

Not voted - MikeVic, Hoops, JE, Gonzo
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:52 PM   #538
Lathum
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
????

talking about gut feeling, willing to change his vote, saying he has been onto cronin. His posts reek to me.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:54 PM   #539
DaddyTorgo
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you reek to me lathum.

and you know solid WW strategy is always vote lathum. maybe i have smoked something out after all.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:57 PM   #540
MikeVic
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Ok, I'm going to go ahead and vote. I don't really like anyone, but the closest to anything at the moment is Mike Vic and his confidence, as has been shown, in multiple people, at least two of whom (me and ntn), I know to be villagers. So much confidence in villagers on Day 1 suggests to me it could be a rookie mistake.

I don't get where you guys are getting the impression that I had so much confidence in who the villagers are? To help with day one voting, I had to justify my votes. That's all it was. Today I still trust hoops as a villager because he's helped so much.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:58 PM   #541
Barkeep49
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Hoops helps whether he's a villager or a wolf. It's just what kind of help that is
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:58 PM   #542
Lathum
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you reek to me lathum.

and you know solid WW strategy is always vote lathum. maybe i have smoked something out after all.

oh my god.

that post reeks the worst of all.

how desperate are you?
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:58 PM   #543
PurdueBrad
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If I make it back in time and want to change my vote, do I edit (thought I read that we shouldn't edit) or make another post stating unvote and put in new vote?
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:58 PM   #544
DaddyTorgo
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I don't get where you guys are getting the impression that I had so much confidence in who the villagers are? To help with day one voting, I had to justify my votes. That's all it was. Today I still trust hoops as a villager because he's helped so much.

i think the problem people are having, and one that you will come to appreciate is that you are overstating your degree of trust.

ie...you say "i trust hoops is a villager" when you mean "he's slightly more likely to be a villager than a wolf"

the word "trust" in a WW game is very heavy. as are all declarative statements "i know" etc.
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Old 08-08-2007, 04:59 PM   #545
MikeVic
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Well, I'm going to be away from a computer for a couple hours. But I'll be back before the 10EST deadline to vote. Right now it would go to cronin, not just out of self-preservation, but because he voted for me... and I know I'm not a wolf.
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Old 08-08-2007, 05:02 PM   #546
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Hoops helps whether he's a villager or a wolf. It's just what kind of help that is

This is true. But I can't write Chief Rum's PMs for him to say that I help, which ought to be worth something at this point.
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Old 08-08-2007, 05:13 PM   #547
DaddyTorgo
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out now. should be back before deadline
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Old 08-08-2007, 05:14 PM   #548
hoopsguy
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Lathum, are you convinced that both Cronin and Torgo are wolves? I understand your premise, but if you are convinced that Torgo is bad does it automatically follow that Cronin is bad? I'm wondering why you are choosing this order for your votes when you seem very convinced that Torgo is a wolf based on your posts over the last couple of hours.
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Old 08-08-2007, 05:19 PM   #549
Lathum
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Lathum, are you convinced that both Cronin and Torgo are wolves? I understand your premise, but if you are convinced that Torgo is bad does it automatically follow that Cronin is bad? I'm wondering why you are choosing this order for your votes when you seem very convinced that Torgo is a wolf based on your posts over the last couple of hours.

It would be impossible for me to be convinced of anything at this point.

Based on his recent posts I am suspiscous of DT however at this point it may be a wasted vote.
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Old 08-08-2007, 05:50 PM   #550
path12
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I don't get where you guys are getting the impression that I had so much confidence in who the villagers are? To help with day one voting, I had to justify my votes. That's all it was. Today I still trust hoops as a villager because he's helped so much.


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