WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Right now all the duke gets to do is break ties. The duke ability is only gained when someone is believed

You're right. In which case, what you're proposing in order to trust dubb makes even less sense, because the action by which you propose that a Duke would take care of a non-Duke dubb is by that very lynch power you're now noting the real Duke doesn't have.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No, that is your read on what he's doing, and stop saying I wasn't around. I have read through all that, and I know what happened. I don't interpret his play the way you are.

I posted that before your post saying you read through. If you interpret different then we can agree to disagree.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You're right. In which case, what you're proposing in order to trust dubb makes even less sense, because the action by which you propose that a Duke would take care of a non-Duke dubb is by that very lynch power you're now noting the real Duke doesn't have.

No, but he has the power to reveal and have the village take care of Dubb

[Danny]

At least someone is online to disagree with you though

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Dubb is too smart a player to make that poor a play as a regular villager. He knows he doesn't actually need to claim that he is the duke and reclaim it at every opportunity when others say he is not. Hoops or PB aren't actually claiming to be the real seer or BG (except for game purposes)

I don't regard it as a poor play by a villager to try to gain a valuable role for the village.

dubb's play struck me from the start as an effort to be believed to be the Duke. He has done nothing to prove he is indeed the Duke. Any of us could have made the exact same moves dubb did, posted the exact same thing and ended up with today's results.

[Danny]

But what is there to gain from that? We are no more likely to believe him as the duke for game purposes just because he is truly RPing that he is the duke. We will make the best decision from a game logic standpoint.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

No, but he has the power to reveal and have the village take care of Dubb

Then dubb comes out and says exactly what I am saying--that he was only intending to go for the believed role. And then we lose any gains from the real Duke remaining hidden, as well as eliminating the possibility of the believed Duke. Not exactly a great play by the real Duke.

Sorry, there are compelling reasons for the Duke to remain hidden at this point, regardless of dubb's play.

[Danny]

If that happened and Dubb claimed that, I would vote him and not move off him no matter what he said as to me It's obvious he is not claiming the role simply for believing purposes and anything he said would be backtracking.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

But what is there to gain from that? We are no more likely to believe him as the duke for game purposes just because he is truly RPing that he is the duke. We will make the best decision from a game logic standpoint.

Why not? You clearly believe he is the duke. Why would you not vote him in as the believed duke? There is much to gain--the ability for the believed Duke to control the lynch. This is not a play that someone would unquestionably avoid making as a villager, particularly a vanilla villager.

[Danny]

I do understand what you are saying, we just interpreted his posts differently.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

If that happened and Dubb claimed that, I would vote him and not move off him no matter what he said as to me It's obvious he is not claiming the role simply for believing purposes and anything he said would be backtracking.

Obvious to you. Not obvious to me at all. I think he's playing a role.

[Danny]

Which leads back to our original interpretations. We would both play off of that to make our decision

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I do understand what you are saying, we just interpreted his posts differently.

Agreed, and I understand where you're coming from, too. I just think you're dealing in absolutes, using your assumption to extend trust to dubb that has not been earned by dubb, and that in fact any one of us, including a wolf, could post and garner your trust. You're assuming too much, and IMO, you need to more carefully look at the possibilities here before rejecting them wholesale in a trust move for dubb.

When it comes to hard evidence, dubb has done nothing--not a single thing--to prove he is what he says he is, and I am arguing we need a heck of a lot more to go on before we place him in any COT.

FTR, I actually do believe dubb is a villager. That's not the point. This is about when it's right to extend trust. And dubb has done nothing to deserve any trust to this point, any more than anyone else in any case.

[Danny]

I'm sticking with the simplest reasoning is the being the most likely. Having Dubb making that play as a vanilla villager, having the real duke not say anything and having the tiebreak the way of Dubb is not nearly as simple as Dubb just being the duke.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Which leads back to our original interpretations. We would both play off of that to make our decision

But you see, there are no consequences for what I am doing. I am saying he should not be any more trusted than anyone else.

There is considerable risk if you make your assumption, and he turns out to not be a villager.

[Danny]

But I will leave open other possibilities if logic follows them as we go along.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'm sticking with the simplest reasoning is the being the most likely. Having Dubb making that play as a vanilla villager, having the real duke not say anything and having the tiebreak the way of Dubb is not nearly as simple as Dubb just being the duke.

You realize that dubb himself set up the tie break with his vote, making a vote any of us could do, right? The tiebreaker, if the duke is not on one of the main candidates, is whoever of the main candidates got the latest vote. That was dubb's vote, as it turns out.

Occam's Razor is all good and fine when nothing's at risk. Placing someone deeply in your COT for that reason id a bit rash, though, at such an early point in the game, when the player in question hasn't done one thing any of us in the game could not do.

[Danny]

Also, you are right about the tie thing. I originally planned to tie it with the vote on Lerriuqs to verify Dubb, but with the vote count mixup and my vote switch ended up not counting it didn't work out that way

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

But I will leave open other possibilities if logic follows them as we go along.

As will I. If an actual Duke act, or some actual evidence of dubb's Dukieness is confirmed, rather than just his say so, I am perfectly willing to believe he's the Duke. But he doesn't deserve that trust at this point, not on Night One.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Also, you are right about the tie thing. I originally planned to tie it with the vote on Lerriuqs to verify Dubb, but with the vote count mixup and my vote switch ended up not counting it didn't work out that way

It was a fair plan, although not foolproof, as you could not know whether the real Duke (were it not dubb) also happened to have his or her vote on DT. All your plan would have proved is that the Duke is in the group that voted for DT (by disproving the second tiebreaker, it must be the first tiebreaker that settles it, as the second tiebreaker is irresolute--no two people can literally post at the same time, even if they hit Submit at the same moment, some programming logic will necessarily place one ahead of the other in the thread).

[Danny]

True, so it wouldn't have 100% verified it, but made it more likely for the conclusion to be true.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

True, so it wouldn't have 100% verified it, but made it more likely for the conclusion to be true.

Absolutely. It would have made a conclusion about dubb's Duke role much more compelling.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, you're right, it is nice to have someone to chat WW with late at night, so that people don't have to suffer through the litany of Chief Rum "catchup" posts they usually get around this time.

Even if you're a Kings fan, meh.

[Danny]

So with that, I am going to head to bed. Night Chief

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, you're right, it is nice to have someone to chat WW with late at night, so that people don't have to suffer through the litany of Chief Rum "catchup" posts they usually get around this time.

Even if you're a Kings fan, meh.

Yeah, Kings, Lakers and Dodgers

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yeah, Kings, Lakers and Dodgers

Ducks, Clippers, Angels, heh. You're probably a Trojie fan, too, aren't ya? Weak.

'Night, Danny!

[PurdueBrad]

Man, note to self, get up at 2 am so I can hang out with Danny and CR.

[Barkeep49]

In the morning when people gather for the opening session of the day you notice one of you isn't there. The hotel manager later lets you know that it seems like EagleFan was so harassed by phones call during the night he decided to leave. It appears he was nothing but a normal V.I.L.L.A.G.E.R.

[PurdueBrad]

I am really hoping that this is how the vote goes down today. Hoops, this isn't a slight against you, but:

Believe CR is seer

[PurdueBrad]

I asked and we can do it based on an earlier statement, don't need to wait for CR to make a new one.

Also, again, I'll block on CR tonight, would appreciate a BG block for me.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I am really hoping that this is how the vote goes down today. Hoops, this isn't a slight against you, but:

Believe CR is seer

No offense taken, either with you getting BG yesterday or with believing Chief today. I don't think we made an optimal play yesterday but I'm done beating that dead horse as of now. I'll continue to maintain that we want to get a seer in place ASAP.

Actually, I'm not quite done beating that dead horse just yet - people do realize that the odds of electing a "wolf/bad" duke today are higher than they were yesterday? Assuming 4 wolves + cultist yesterday (no idea on ratios, but think they might be a bit higher than usual in this one) we had a 12/17 chance of a good election yesterday. Now we are down to 10/15 thanks to two dead villagers.

OK - now I'm done beating that dead horse.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm disappointed Hoops that you didn't at least use the smilie.

[saldana]

interesting choice in EagleFan as the night kill...he is usually lynched early, if i recall correctly, so eliminating someone that usually generates their own heat is an interesting move

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, I was pretty surprised by it as well. Especially since he drew some votes yesterday. Maybe there is something in his posts to see? Best guess would be that they thought he had a major role that drove his BG urgency yesterday?

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yes then it should.

lerriuqs 6 – USFLTecmo (246), Telle (304), MartinD (356), saldana (362), Lathum (376), Hoops (394),
DaddyTorgo 6 – lerriuqs (250), Danny (306), Racer (312), EagleFan (383), Tyrith (411), Dubb (420)
MartinD 1 – Schmidty (306)
EagleFan 2 – ntndeacon (366), PurdueBrad (375)
Schmidty 1 - Chief Rum (378)

Originally Posted by Danny

I'm sticking with the simplest reasoning is the being the most likely. Having Dubb making that play as a vanilla villager, having the real duke not say anything and having the tiebreak the way of Dubb is not nearly as simple as Dubb just being the duke.

I will confirm I am NOT the Duke. EagleFan is dead so that leaves Dubb as one of four candidates that could possibly be the Duke, including Danny who is pushing the notion hard that Dubb is the Duke (so I would assume Danny isn't it either).

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Then dubb comes out and says exactly what I am saying--that he was only intending to go for the believed role. And then we lose any gains from the real Duke remaining hidden, as well as eliminating the possibility of the believed Duke. Not exactly a great play by the real Duke.

Sorry, there are compelling reasons for the Duke to remain hidden at this point, regardless of dubb's play.

If he does that move we're gonna lynch him anyway. He has all of day 1 to fess up to that, he didn't, he's locked in now. That BS is not going to work at this point.

[PurdueBrad]

Alright guys, I may have set us back a day. I have a pretty big plan to pull off. Here is what I need:

I am (and always have been) one of the two seers.

IF you believe me as seer today, I am guaranteed to be a valid seer AND can spot the cunning. I will lose the BG.

What I wanted to ensure was getting through last night so I could get one scan off, as you'll see why in a minute.

IF you believe me as seer today, the real BG guards me today, I get a scan off and make it public. Tomorrow, we make CR the other BG (I scanned him last night as good so I'll take the chance) and he protects me two days in a row (which he's allowed to do once). The other BG drops a protect on CR as I continue to scan and clear or scan and out wolves.

I really hope I'm not misplaying this but I *believe* this works. If you don't believe I'm a seer, I'll drop the post #'s where I hint at it.

The way this works:
N2- made real seer, guarded by real BG, I scan and share
N3- make trusted player (CR right now) BG, he guards me, I scan and share
N4- believed BG guards me again (he's allowed this once), I scan and share
N5- real BG guards me, I scan and share
N6- believed (or in case of nightkill, newly made/trusted BG) guards me, I scan and share

and so on.

[PurdueBrad]

unbelieve CR as seer

believe PB as seer

[PurdueBrad]

The other thing that this plan allows is the other seer to match their scans with mine to see if they are real/fake.

[PurdueBrad]

Here is my post list, those of you that have played with me before have seen (hehe) me do this twice I think. One day it'll really f me over:

Post #87- call myself something rare, say "see"
132- say "see" twice
210- say "looks", looking to self-defend
212- say "saw"
214- say "see"
260- say "see"
529- quick drop of believe on CR after getting scan result.

Like I said, I think I like what we've got. If CR becomes BG tomorrow, he can protect me and the real BG can guard him either tomorrow or the next (make them guess).

[PurdueBrad]

Ummmm, am I the ultimate thread kill or what?

[hoopsguy]

Not sure how much time I'll have today - think I'm going to be missing just about the entire day. So I'll put in a vote believing PurdueBrad for now.

I expect to be able to sneak in for a lynch vote, a second believe vote, and an unbelieve vote if there is a reason to do so. Just not sure when that will happen.

BELIEVE PURDUEBRAD

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops or anyone that is around, does this play make sense? I know it's a little late as I've backed us into a corner but curious what the read is on this.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

a second believe vote, and an unbelieve vote if there is a reason to do so.
BELIEVE PURDUEBRAD

Reminder, to make sure that I'm the real seer, I need to be the winner, not just 40%. Because of that, if you believe this will work, I HIGHLY recommend no second votes on anyone/anything else other than simply the lynch vote.


Oh yeah, and I've killed the thread again I think.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Only one person may be believed for a role at a time. Once believed a person can't be believed for any other role, UNLESS it was not that player's starting role and the actual person with the role dies. If that happens, the player who was believed falsely loses their powers. If a player is believed for a role that is not their own they will keep their starting powers, unless otherwise specified.

Your plan does not work.

[PurdueBrad]

Tyrith, BG was NOT my starting role or am I mis-reading that and that it has to be a BOTH maneuver? Although even if it has to be a both maneuver, then we can still make a seer tonight that I can guard, the BG guards me (we get two scans), tomorrow I self-guard, BG guards the believed seer (and we get two more scans) so all in all, that nets us a total of five scans (including my CR one).

[PurdueBrad]

I think it is a decent trade anyway. With 5 scans of 15 living players, I would think that we would hit at least one wolf. PLUS, the numbers will get narrowed down from nightkills. So I guess it still works, just in a different way.

[Tyrith]

We believed you as BG. As I read it, we can only believe you as another role if the starting BG dies. This is consistent with not being able to believe someone for a role that is already out of the game.

[PurdueBrad]

That works, it still should let us get a big COT then. I've asked BK. IF I can't be believed for my starting role, then I recommend believing CR for seer and he and I can get us five scans before either of us is even possibly exposed to the wolves. So we can work together and get a NICE COT or outwolves OR both.

[USFLTecmo]

DISBELIEVE PB AS BG
BELIEVE PB AS SEER