Official 2009-2010 MLB Offseason Thread

[DaddyTorgo]

they should trade Wright to Boston - his power numbers have died in Citi and he'd be great for us - I'm sure the Sox have a package of young talent they'd offer for him...hehehe

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

they should trade Wright to Boston - his power numbers have died in Citi and he'd be great for us - I'm sure the Sox have a package of young talent they'd offer for him...hehehe

His power numbers died because he changed his approach for citi. Someone needs to smack him upside the head and tell him to hit the ball the way he always has and let everything else take care of itself.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Atocep

His power numbers died because he changed his approach for citi. Someone needs to smack him upside the head and tell him to hit the ball the way he always has and let everything else take care of itself.

just fyi i was 95% kidding...i'm sure he's the closest thing they have to untradeable....i just saw some dumb columnist the other day ruminating on it and it made me go "uhhh wtf?"

[Logan]

Pretty sure we're gonna see the Citifield walls come down in height soon (from 16 ft to 8).

[stevew]

Good for Bay. He isn't likely to be worth all that money. But he will fit in nicely as the Mets 4th best hitter.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'd rather have seen Holliday come to NY, but I'll wait and see what else Omar fucks up before I judge this deal.

A righthanded power hitter who has terrible range in LF and is probably already better suited to DH to a 5 year deal in a stadium with a gigantic left-field power alley? How could this go wrong? (I just wish it had been the Giants or Mariners so we could have gained an additional 1st instead of a 2nd.)

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

just fyi i was 95% kidding...i'm sure he's the closest thing they have to untradeable....i just saw some dumb columnist the other day ruminating on it and it made me go "uhhh wtf?"

Especially since if Boston asks, I'm sure the Mets will turn around and say, "sure... if you give us Youklis"

[Bad-example]

DeRosa to the Giants seems like a reasonable deal. The wrist injury is concerning but he is still a fair bet to justify the 2 year/12M he received.

Hard to say how much money the Giants have left to spend with arbitration poised to screw the budget but good. How much is Lincecum going to get? 14M? 18M? More?

[RedKingGold]

If only Zito would die in a flaming car accident, right?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Does anyone think if Randy Moss was a hard nosed scrappy type white player ala Welker he would of been berated last week by the fans and the media?

Not to get back in this, but the stadium was chanting "Randy" after his 3rd touchdown sunday. Fans are fickle.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Especially since if Boston asks, I'm sure the Mets will turn around and say, "sure... if you give us Youklis"

I'm pretty sure the Sox would take that deal in a heartbeat. Both signed through 2013 (Wright for 55m, Youk for 46m) and Wright is 4 years younger with a body that has proven it can play 162 games at 3B without breaking down.

[Atocep]

Sounds like Holliday ends up staying in St. Louis unless someone else steps up. I've read he's looking at a contract in the 7 year $120 million range with a full no trade clause (Boras is pushing for an 8th year). If this is the case, I don't feel as bad about the Bay deal.

[DaddyTorgo]

Free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre has reached tentative agreement on a one-year, guaranteed, $10 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, multiple sources have told ESPN.com and ESPNBoston.com.

The deal will pay Beltre a base salary of $9 million in 2010. It includes a $5 million player option for 2011 and a $1 million buyout, and is contingent upon Beltre passing a physical exam, the sources said.

[JPhillips]

Wow. What happened to Beltre last year? I knew he slumped, but didn't realize how bad his numbers were.

[DaddyTorgo]

I guess he only played 111 games is part of it, due to injury.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre has reached tentative agreement on a one-year, guaranteed, $10 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, multiple sources have told ESPN.com and ESPNBoston.com.

The deal will pay Beltre a base salary of $9 million in 2010. It includes a $5 million player option for 2011 and a $1 million buyout, and is contingent upon Beltre passing a physical exam, the sources said.

Fuck I hate this move. He is a better defense player than Lowell but he is probably still a drop from Lowell even with his hip/thumb stuff. I think even with the addition of Lackey the Sox have surely gotten worse while the Yanks got better. The sox really didn't need another arm but needed sticks! Look at the Sox from two years back: Ortiz now is shot, Lowell is gone more or less, Youk is no longer a clutch hitter, Pedroia came back down to earth, Ramirez production never was replaced and now they lost Bay oh and Varitek is not able to even foula ball off. So our additions for hitters to replace that is...........Beltre, Cameron, Scuataro,Martinez? They are surely better defensively better in a hitters park they are going to try to play small ball? The Nation should get ready for alot of 6-2 losses.

As a Sox fan I take this Beltre signing as definite sign the Sox are all but conceding the AL east this season and setting payroll up for next year and make a huge run at Mauer. Problem is I am sure the Yanks are also looking that way with Posada getting up there.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Fuck I hate this move. He is a better defense player than Lowell but he is probably still a drop from Lowell even with his hip/thumb stuff. I think even with the addition of Lackey the Sox have surely gotten worse while the Yanks got better. The sox really didn't need another arm but needed sticks! Look at the Sox from two years back: Ortiz now is shot, Lowell is gone more or less, Youk is no longer a clutch hitter, Pedroia came back down to earth, Ramirez production never was replaced and now they lost Bay oh and Varitek is not able to even foula ball off. So our additions for hitters to replace that is...........Beltre, Cameron, Scuataro,Martinez? They are surely better defensively better in a hitters park they are going to try to play small ball? The Nation should get ready for alot of 6-2 losses.

As a Sox fan I take this Beltre signing as definite sign the Sox are all but conceding the AL east this season and setting payroll up for next year and make a huge run at Mauer. Problem is I am sure the Yanks are also looking that way with Posada getting up there.

I somewhat agree. They're setting up for a big run at Mauer, also maybe stockpiling arms to make a run at AGon at the trading deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Fuck I hate this move. He is a better defense player than Lowell but he is probably still a drop from Lowell even with his hip/thumb stuff. I think even with the addition of Lackey the Sox have surely gotten worse while the Yanks got better. The sox really didn't need another arm but needed sticks! Look at the Sox from two years back: Ortiz now is shot, Lowell is gone more or less, Youk is no longer a clutch hitter, Pedroia came back down to earth, Ramirez production never was replaced and now they lost Bay oh and Varitek is not able to even foula ball off. So our additions for hitters to replace that is...........Beltre, Cameron, Scuataro,Martinez? They are surely better defensively better in a hitters park they are going to try to play small ball? The Nation should get ready for alot of 6-2 losses.

As a Sox fan I take this Beltre signing as definite sign the Sox are all but conceding the AL east this season and setting payroll up for next year and make a huge run at Mauer. Problem is I am sure the Yanks are also looking that way with Posada getting up there.

Oh, I don't know about that. Beltre might have been the best power bat left on the market (assuming Holliday's well on his way back to the Cards). I see it as a good move, especially given the short term nature. Beltre will only be there for one year--no way Boras lets him exercise that option unless Beltre just absolutely craps the bed.

Is it the bat the Sox need? No. But that bat's not out there.

If I were a Sox fan, what would concern me is that the Sox chose to go over the luxury tax threshold for Beltre. The reasoning for not staying in it on Bay or making a run at Holliday was because of the luxury tax threshold, so why cave for Beltre? If you're going to go over, might as well do it with gusto and get a really big power bat that will help you (I actually would have thought Holliday, actually, since Sox been there done that with Bay; not sure brining back Bay would have been an improvement).

Now the Sox pretty much have to move Lowell to beat the luxury tax threshold. Still not sure they'll end up swinging that.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh, I don't know about that. Beltre might have been the best power bat left on the market (assuming Holliday's well on his way back to the Cards). I see it as a good move, especially given the short term nature. Beltre will only be there for one year--no way Boras lets him exercise that option unless Beltre just absolutely craps the bed.

Is it the bat the Sox need? No. But that bat's not out there.

If I were a Sox fan, what would concern me is that the Sox chose to go over the luxury tax threshold for Beltre. The reasoning for not staying in it on Bay or making a run at Holliday was because of the luxury tax threshold, so why cave for Beltre? If you're going to go over, might as well do it with gusto and get a really big power bat that will help you (I actually would have thought Holliday, actually, since Sox been there done that with Bay; not sure brining back Bay would have been an improvement).

Now the Sox pretty much have to move Lowell to beat the luxury tax threshold. Still not sure they'll end up swinging that.

good point chiefy

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh, I don't know about that. Beltre might have been the best power bat left on the market (assuming Holliday's well on his way back to the Cards). I see it as a good move, especially given the short term nature. Beltre will only be there for one year--no way Boras lets him exercise that option unless Beltre just absolutely craps the bed.

Is it the bat the Sox need? No. But that bat's not out there.

If I were a Sox fan, what would concern me is that the Sox chose to go over the luxury tax threshold for Beltre. The reasoning for not staying in it on Bay or making a run at Holliday was because of the luxury tax threshold, so why cave for Beltre? If you're going to go over, might as well do it with gusto and get a really big power bat that will help you (I actually would have thought Holliday, actually, since Sox been there done that with Bay; not sure brining back Bay would have been an improvement).

Now the Sox pretty much have to move Lowell to beat the luxury tax threshold. Still not sure they'll end up swinging that.

The problem with Bay/Holiday was they were looking for 4-5 years deals minimum at high dollars as opposed to Beltre for like you mentioned 1 year. I still don't like it but agree the bat they need is not out there. Personally I would love for them to have tried to trade Dice K for that bat maybe Ramirez in Florida or Gonzo in SD. I know Matsuzaka's contract is a major problem to trading him but maybe we could package him. The problem I see is if any of the the big SP -Beckett, lackey,Lester, Dice K, does not have a good year 16-10 they are in deep trouble with this line up.

[dawgfan]

Getting Beltre on a 1-year deal for $9M is a good one. The question will be whether it's a good deal for Boston or an outstanding one, and that depends on his health and how it affects his hitting.

Beltre is a fantastic defensive 3B, a guy who is going to be +10 to +15 runs above average. His thumb and other injuries hampered him more than usual last year at the plate, dropping his offensive value. But if he's relatively healthy, moving from Safeco to Fenway should be a huge boon to his numbers - Safeco just killed him, while Fenway should work in his favor. His average and doubles should rise quite a bit as he peppers the Monster with line drives.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Getting Beltre on a 1-year deal for $9M is a good one. The question will be whether it's a good deal for Boston or an outstanding one, and that depends on his health and how it affects his hitting.

Beltre is a fantastic defensive 3B, a guy who is going to be +10 to +15 runs above average. His thumb and other injuries hampered him more than usual last year at the plate, dropping his offensive value. But if he's relatively healthy, moving from Safeco to Fenway should be a huge boon to his numbers - Safeco just killed him, while Fenway should work in his favor. His average and doubles should rise quite a bit as he peppers the Monster with line drives.

here's hoping

[Ramzavail]

Dice-K's WHIP was enormous last year.

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by Rotoworld

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche turned down a two-year, $17 million contract from the Giants.
He'll probably never see that kind of money again this offseason, as according to Olney, the offer might be off the table now. LaRoche lost one potential suitor with the Mariners picking up Casey Kotchman, so LaRoche will likely have to choose between the Orioles and Giants. The Giants are believed to be discussing alternatives, and rightfully so.

Yeesh. I think the Giants did a nice Neo impersonation in dodging this bullet.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Personally I would love for them to have tried to trade Dice K for that bat maybe Ramirez in Florida...

Why would Florida trade Hanley for Dice K? The only reason they would trade Hanely is because they can't afford him. How would Dice K improve that situation?

Hell the reason Ramirez is in Florida and Beckett is in Boston is because Florida couldn't afford Beckett. You think they will ship Hanley back to them for another expensive, less talented pitcher?

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by primelord

Why would Florida trade Hanley for Dice K? The only reason they would trade Hanely is because they can't afford him. How would Dice K improve that situation?

Hell the reason Ramirez is in Florida and Beckett is in Boston is because Florida couldn't afford Beckett. You think they will ship Hanley back to them for another expensive, less talented pitcher?

Yeah no way anyone trades striaght Hanley for Dice K I meant him and some other players.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Yeah no way anyone trades striaght Hanley for Dice K I meant him and some other players.

I doubt greatly Dice K goes to Florida or San Diego in any deal. It just doesn't make any sense for either of these teams, keeping their payrolls as low as they are, to take him on.

That's not to say the Sox couldn't work out a Gonzalez or Ramirez deal at some point, but it's not going to be some salary trade thing. If it happens, it will have to be via a boatload of prospects. And that will go with pretty much any team which tries to acquire either of those players.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Sounds like Holliday ends up staying in St. Louis unless someone else steps up. I've read he's looking at a contract in the 7 year $120 million range with a full no trade clause (Boras is pushing for an 8th year). If this is the case, I don't feel as bad about the Bay deal.

Looks like it ended up 7 for $120 with a team option for an 8th:

Matt Holliday decides to re-sign with St. Louis Cardinals - ESPN

[dawgfan]

Outstanding post on Lookout Landing on the larger subject of how we judge value of ballplayers and gaining some perspective on how we look at flaws in a player's game within the larger context of the value they provide. It's sparked in part by the perception that some Red Sox fans aren't appreciating the Beltre signing as much as they should.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/1/5/1235330/a-note-to-boston-to-us-and-to-everyone

[McSweeny]

Any Red Sox fan that doesn't appreciate Beltre needs to watch this

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Looks like it ended up 7 for $120 with a team option for an 8th:

Matt Holliday decides to re-sign with St. Louis Cardinals - ESPN

That's an awful lot of money for a guy that can't catch a simple fly ball with his crotch.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Outstanding post on Lookout Landing on the larger subject of how we judge value of ballplayers and gaining some perspective on how we look at flaws in a player's game within the larger context of the value they provide. It's sparked in part by the perception that some Red Sox fans aren't appreciating the Beltre signing as much as they should.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/1/5/1235330/a-note-to-boston-to-us-and-to-everyone

whose perspective is that? i'm pumped for Beltre's gold-glove defense at 3B and hopefully a league-average or slightly above-average offensive year by him!

LMAO - at like the 1:10 mark he takes an XBH away from my doppleganger on the Yankees (yes, as a good Sox fan I want to kill myself cuz the Yankees have a player with my name)

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

whose perspective is that? i'm pumped for Beltre's gold-glove defense at 3B and hopefully a league-average or slightly above-average offensive year by him!

Galaril for one in this thread, and any number of people commenting at Red Sox blogs about the signing.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Galaril for one in this thread, and any number of people commenting at Red Sox blogs about the signing.

i dunno - you might be misinterpreting "apprehension over the course of action the front office chose" or "disappointment that the front office didn't shell out the big $$ for the premiere FA bat on the market after losing a big bat" with "non-appreciation of Beltre's talents."

Maybe...i dunno. I've been too busy to really dig into the blogosphere.

You coulda thrown up this article here also:

Can the Red Sox Still Hit? Dispelling the Myth of the "Weakened*Offense" - Over the Monster

Originally Posted by article

From the beginning, the Red Sox' goal this offseason has been clear: run prevention, run prevention, run prevention. And certainly, they've made great strides towards that goal. Mike Cameron will hush fears of Jacoby Ellsbury's suspect reads, while Ellsbury will take advantage of the smaller left field, replacing the sieve that was Jason Bay. Adrian Beltre is one of the best defensive third basemen to play the game in recent years, and will hopefully allow Kevin Youkilis to supply his top-notch defense at first for the whole season. Marco Scutaro will provide some consistency at shortstop, for once, and all of this will be taking place behind a ridiculously strong rotation.


But in the eyes of many, this has been at the cost of offense. "We won't be able to hit elite pitching" (who can?) or "We're lacking a middle-of-the-rotation bat" are oft-heard complaints. Right now, let's take a look at what we actually have--all semantics aside. This article will attempt to look at the offensive production gained or lost objectively with statistics, so if you're not a fan of wOBA, now is the time to turn around. I've taken advantage of Beyond the Boxscore's wOBA to RAR calculator to turn wOBA over a certain number of plate appearances into the more tangible concept of runs for the sake of simplicity.

the switch from Varitek to Martinez should be worth about 8.2 runs over last year.
Over the same 574 plate appearances, the difference between Scutaro and last year's shortstops is worth 19.5 runs.
there's not much change in production switching from Lowell to Beltre--only minus 2.3 runs.
the switch from Jason Bay will cost the Red Sox some 32.2 runs.

Some quick math later, and we have the figure of 6.8 runs. That's it. The Boston Red Sox of 2010 should, even assuming a fairly low baseline for all replacement players, score only 6.8 runs fewer than they did in 2010. Even ignoring all bumps longtime residents of Progressive, Miller, and Safeco Field might get from playing half their games in Fenway. Even assuming that Ortiz doesn't continue his performance from the last half, but replicates his mediocre season as a whole.

[DaddyTorgo]

to follow up on that last post - i really do think that what you're seeing is fans (even educated fans) being extremely worried about that -32.2 runs we lost by not replacing Bay, and the worry that Ortiz is toast / he won't have any protection in this lineup.

And to some extent that is certainly a justified fear - it's a staggeringly huge loss. But i guess if you do the math and you trust the projected numbers (and those were conservative numbers), it's not that bad really. and that doesn't take into account runs saved defensively or with the upgrade in the pitching staff.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

and that doesn't take into account runs saved defensively...

Which is one of the reasons behind the post I linked to. A run saved is essentially equal to a run scored, but most fans don't grasp or believe just how much variability there is on the part of fielders and just how many runs can be saved when comparing an elite defender vs. an awful defender.

Ask most baseball fans, and they'll tell you Beltre was an overpaid bust with Seattle. In reality, he was more than worth what he was paid.

[TurnerONU22]

Wow, as a Reds fan, this is shocking:

Source: Chapman to sign with NL team - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman agreed to a five-year, $30 million deal with a National League team believed to be the Reds, Yahoo Sports reported on Sunday morning.



MLB.com has confirmed from a National League source that the team involved is believed to be the Reds.



The Reds' interest in the 22-year-old with a fastball clocked as high as 100 mph was originally reported by FoxSports.com on Friday. The club was one of many to see Chapman work out on Dec. 15 in Houston.


But it still comes as a surprise if it's the Reds who signed Chapman, as the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees and Angels were believed to be the front-runners for Chapman's services, according to recent reports.



The Red Sox were the first to bid on Chapman with an initial $15.5 million offer in early December, while the Blue Jays reportedly offered him $23 million. The Marlins also reportedly offered him a deal in the $16 million range.



In the NL, the Marlins, Mets, Nationals and Astros were also after Chapman, but it appeared he would be heading to an American League team before Yahoo's report on Sunday.



Chapman is represented by agents Randy and Alan Hendricks after he dismissed fledgling agent Edwin Mejia, who helped him establish residency in Andorra after he defected from the Cuban National Team in July.
Chapman was originally said to be looking for $50 million, but will have to settle for making twice what No. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg made when he signed his record-breaking $15.1 million deal with the Nationals on Aug. 17.

I'm still shocked over this, as the Reds don't spend any money. Hopefully Chapman will turn out to be a decent pitcher

[DaddyTorgo]

wow...that's surprising! good for the reds though!

[JPhillips]

Holy shit, I didn't see this coming.

Confirmed: LHP Aroldis Chapman agrees to five-year, $30 million contract with Cincinnati #Reds.

[rowech]

I have to believe that this means Harang or Arroyo is gone...maybe both?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

They're either going to look like geniuses or morons. Lots of red flags, but obviously he's got a great arm.

[Logan]

Those damn big markets ruining the game.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by rowech

I have to believe that this means Harang or Arroyo is gone...maybe both?

I don't know about this year, but they'll both be gone for 2011. They should have a rotation of Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Chapman, and Leake for 2011.

Those five will cost about what Arroyo and Harang make now.

[lungs]

Big risk for Cincy, but I think it is well worth it. $30 million spread over five years won't kill a team. The upside is such that if Chapman reaches his potential he'll be an absolute steal.

[JPhillips]

Even if he's nothing better than a fourth or fifth starter, six million per for fours years isn't overpaying. They only get burnt if he can't make it at all in the majors.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Even if he's nothing better than a fourth or fifth starter, six million per for fours years isn't overpaying. They only get burnt if he can't make it at all in the majors.

From what I have heard, Chapman's not ready for the bigs right now. My guess is his path will be similar to Kendry Morales' with the Angels, which had him mostly in the minors for two seasons and then shuttling back for about a season and a half before getting the starting 1B job last year.

Difference with Chapman, though, is that he probably won't have Kotchman or Teixeira blocking his way to a spot in the Reds rotation, so my guess is, September call up this year, with a chance to make the rotation in 2011. Then he'll come close, but not quite, get sent down and get elevated for injury/ineffectiveness reasons around midseason in 2011, and then hold his spot for the rest of the year.

After that, his actual performance in that opportunity will determine where he is after that.

[JPhillips]

I think that's probably right, with the caveat of a playoff run in 2010 would postpone his callup. From what I've read he's got control problems and the arm angle on his curve is very different from his fastball and slider.

There's certainly a risk here, but I'd rather a small market team make this sort of risk rather than signing a closer long term for 12 million per.

[Young Drachma]

Seems like his agents decided it made more sense to send him to a place where he'd have less pressure than New York or Boston or whatever. Maybe that's why Florida and Toronto were in the mix too.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

The Red Sox were never even within shouting distance of $30M. Last I'd heard was half that.

That may be more telling than any convoluted pressure-avoidance situation. Chapman went where the largest offer was.

[DaddyTorgo]

this just in - the Japanese "machismo" strikes again. Apparently Dice-K had a groin injury since January 2009 and repeatedly lied to the Red Sox about it - they found out through an interview he gave to a Japanese magazine.

Source: Boston Red Sox learn Daisuke Matsuzaka hid groin injury - ESPN Boston

I'm fed up with this guy. As great as he was that one year, and as good as he has been so far, I'm done with him. The cultural shit is just fucking up his ability to be truly successful. I'm so tired of it.

Originally Posted by article

Matsuzaka said he deliberately kept the injury secret, both from Japanese trainers and later the Red Sox, because he didn't want to be perceived an excuse-maker.

"I didn't want to show my weaknesses,'' he said. "I didn't want them to think I was making excuses. I would rather be criticized than ridiculed for making excuses. I repeat, I really didn't want to be the center of concern for people. I believe when you say you are sick, you become sick. Sure I appreciate that you are concerned about me, but I don't even like to be wished good luck about my health.''

While he was in Florida, another interview appeared in a Japanese publication in which Matsuzaka complained that conforming to the Red Sox's training techniques had negatively impacted his effectiveness, criticism that elicited anger from the Sox, which general manager Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona conveyed in a meeting to the apologetic pitcher.

MAYBE IT WASN'T OUR TRAINING BUT YOUR FUCKING INJURY!!!

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Meh, I took it as good news. Explains why he was god-awful to start the year. He came back looking good; hopefully that's what we'll get going forward.