2012-2013 MLB Offseason Thread: Go forth to the 2013 MLB Thread

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I think that the general consensus is that deals for pitchers that are 5 or more are generally losers for the teams. I like the deal now, but 5 years from now, we'll all look back and know that they never got their money's worth.

Free agent contracts are generally about paying for past performance, not future expectation, and that's never more true than with pitchers.

As far as 'money's worth' goes, though, I think that probably depends on how you parse the question. Greinke probably isn't going to be a 30 WAR pitcher over the course of the contract. He's only been 5+ twice in his career, which is what he'd need to average to be 'worth' it, if I recall the market rate on WAR correctly.

But there's more to it than that, too. There's the attendance question - does a big, splashy signing goose season ticket sales and lead to increased walk-ups?

There's the media rights question - there's already been rumblings that Fox is offering the Dodgers in the neighborhood of $6 billion over 25 years, and that's before the exclusive negotiating window expires. Does the Greinke signing materially impact that, or did that offer already price in the expectation that the Dodgers would make a couple splashy FA signings this year? And if that expectation wasn't priced in, what does it do to the bidding if Guggenheim run out the clock and let Time Warner Cable enter the bidding picture?

And then there's the Zito question - even if Greinke underperforms the contract, does he step up in a key situation and deliver crucial postseason performances somewhere along the way? No, those performances by themselves won't make the deal 'worth it,' but they could materially color how the team's fanbase perceives the signing in the long run.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by stevew

Michael Young to the Phillies.

The Bill James favorite toy gives Young a 37% chance at 3000 hits. Will be interested to see if he can maintain enough defense to work in the NL. Or if he can subsist as a Paul Molitor type until he gets 3000(needs 770more)

Amaro's been horny on Young for awhile, so I hope he's worth it. The Rangers are paying 10 of the 16 mil left on the contract, so at least it's a low risk move from a salary perspective. Of course, the Phils gave him a no-trade, so we're stuck with him if things go south.

[DanGarion]

Twitter / Ken_Rosenthal: Source: #Rays will send James ...

Source: #Rays will send James Shields and Wade Davis to #Royals for Wil Myers and other prospects.

Wil Myers is the shit, but that is a lot for him and other prospects. Royals must really think they are in it to win it.

[stevew]

lol

[stevew]

Trade: #Rays send Shields, Davis and a player to be named or cash to #Royals for Myers, Odorizzi, Montogmery, Leonard.

[DaddyTorgo]

Nice to see the Red Sox doing relatively nothing this offseason. Heh.

[DanGarion]

Looking more at this the Rays took advantage of the Royals... wow.

[BishopMVP]

+1. WTH Dayton Moore? Shields/Davis for Myers would make sense, but giving TB Odorizzi, Leonard and Montgomery too?

[stevew]

The royals package for Price makes more sense too...hell whatever it might have taken.

Panic move by a shitty GM.

Are we even sure that Wade Davis is anything more than a high leverage reliever?

Really gotta wonder if the next tampa prospect is going to take a sure thing hometown discount contract with the risk that he might get sent to a losing franchise.

[kcchief19]

I'm squarely on the fence on this one. I worry about Shields because his home/road split isn't pretty, and we may be getting the second coming of Jeremy Guthrie, and we already have him. Plus you're trading six years of cheap Myers for two years of Shields when you could keep Myers and go out and sign a free agent that's better than what you have.

The Odorizzi part of the deal scares me a bit. While a lot of people are high on him, many others I respect say he is a trainwreck waiting to happen, whether it's an injury or the revelation he's at best a No. 4/5 starter.

Montgomery was washed up with the Royals. If the Rays salvage him, good for them. I'm not sweating his loss, because he was never going to figure things out with the Royals. His mindset didn't fit with the organization. Leonard is a throw-in.

The 2010-11 Wade Davis is still an upgrade over anybody we had last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that a rotation of Shields, Guthrie, Santana, Davis and Mendoza or Chen is an upgrade from last year. Plus now you can give Will Smith some time at AAA to mature and let Paulino and Duffy come back from their injuries at a leisurely pace.

If Davis goes to the bullpen and Hochevar stays in the rotation, fans in KC will go ballistic. Hope they use this depth in the rotation to try Hochevar out as a reliever, 'cause he sure ain't no starter.

[kcchief19]

If the pitching staff Dayton Moore has cobbled together is even slightly better than the hobos we ran out there last year, and the team his the way they did when Perez and Cain were back healthy, I like their chances.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

If the pitching staff Dayton Moore has cobbled together is even slightly better than the hobos we ran out there last year, and the team his the way they did when Perez and Cain were back healthy, I like their chances.

This kind of reminds me of Billy Beane ripping off the Royals for Johnny Damon. Of course, Damon was headed to Free Agency. This is a GM who obviously doesn't realize where value lies. He's getting rid of an above average bat with superstar upside and six years of club control below market value (plus extras) for a guy that's good, but is likely to be overpaid every year that you have him (plus fewer extras).

Just stupid.

Rany's blog'll be good this week, at least.

[Young Drachma]

Wow, a bold move by the Royals.

[Crapshoot]

Dayton Moore is the new Ed Wade in terms of stupidity. This is what happens with moral hazard - a man playing for his job in 2013 instead of keeping the minor league player of the year.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by oykib

This kind of reminds me of Billy Beane ripping off the Royals for Johnny Damon. Of course, Damon was headed to Free Agency. This is a GM who obviously doesn't realize where value lies. He's getting rid of an above average bat with superstar upside and six years of club control below market value (plus extras) for a guy that's good, but is likely to be overpaid every year that you have him (plus fewer extras).

Just stupid.

Rany's blog'll be good this week, at least.

I think Rany might take the Rob Neyer route. I'm rooting for KC, but this was buying into "big game James" more than analysis. 6/7 cheap years of Myers (top5 prospect) is worth a lot - plus, now you lot are stuck gritty Francouer.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I'm squarely on the fence on this one. I worry about Shields because his home/road split isn't pretty, and we may be getting the second coming of Jeremy Guthrie, and we already have him. Plus you're trading six years of cheap Myers for two years of Shields when you could keep Myers and go out and sign a free agent that's better than what you have.

The Odorizzi part of the deal scares me a bit. While a lot of people are high on him, many others I respect say he is a trainwreck waiting to happen, whether it's an injury or the revelation he's at best a No. 4/5 starter.

Montgomery was washed up with the Royals. If the Rays salvage him, good for them. I'm not sweating his loss, because he was never going to figure things out with the Royals. His mindset didn't fit with the organization. Leonard is a throw-in.

The 2010-11 Wade Davis is still an upgrade over anybody we had last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that a rotation of Shields, Guthrie, Santana, Davis and Mendoza or Chen is an upgrade from last year. Plus now you can give Will Smith some time at AAA to mature and let Paulino and Duffy come back from their injuries at a leisurely pace.

If Davis goes to the bullpen and Hochevar stays in the rotation, fans in KC will go ballistic. Hope they use this depth in the rotation to try Hochevar out as a reliever, 'cause he sure ain't no starter.

I've been trying to find a silver lining and it happens all around the edges of the trade. I think you're right about Montgomery and Odorizzi. I think Odorizzi had #3 upside but not that much more and certainly easily never become more than a bullpen arm and you wouldn't shock me. Montgomery might have something but he needs out of the KC system as last year was an unmitigated disaster: he might be good but he never was going to be good in KC. Leonard is an A ball prospect and hasn't played a full season so he's pretty much a lottery ticket hitter (if something exists).

But, really, the fact that if it was Myers for Shields + Davis, it still would have been stupid. Really, I'm not certain (Myers + Hochevar) isn't worth more in 2013 than (Frenchy + Shields). And that's as someone who hates Hochevar. And never mind that Shields will be gone in 2 years while Myers will be around for 6.9 in Tampa. Even 2010-2011 Wade Davis isn't worth that much. What's a 2 year average of 4.20 ERA in pitchers park Tampa Bay worth?

And the fact that Dayton chipped in 3 more prospects beyond Myers just shows how crappy he is at understanding player value.

SI

[Young Drachma]

So what makes this deal pay off in the minds of a Royals fan? At what point do you say "ok, fine. We did that and I'm glad we went for it?"

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

So what makes this deal pay off in the minds of a Royals fan? At what point do you say "ok, fine. We did that and I'm glad we went for it?"

Playoffs in 2013/2014 and the youth pipeline isn't dry so that it was 2 years out of the desert and then 6 years back into it from 2015-2020.

The fear is that really this will be a .500 team in 2013/2014, Dayton Moore is fired, and then new GM so the Royals can bottom out in 2015 and 2016 all over again.

SI

[Logan]

I think it's a great deal for the Royals, although I admittedly know nothing about the prospects outside of Myers. I do know that it seems like 95% of the time a top prospect is either dealt for a legit, established player or held on to instead of trading him for said player, it works out for the team who trades for/holds on to the established player.

That 95% figure may be high, but remember, I'm a Mets fan.

[Chief Rum]

WTF DiPoto? How come all we got was Brandon Sisk out of this dumbass in KC?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

WTF DiPoto? How come all we got was Brandon Sisk out of this dumbass in KC?

This is the same guy who didn't trade Haren and then he signed the same deal that his option was worth (hence any team could have had him for market value).

Then again, Moore was the dumbass who traded something and got Santana instead of Haren.

SI

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Logan

I think it's a great deal for the Royals, although I admittedly know nothing about the prospects outside of Myers. I do know that it seems like 95% of the time a top prospect is either dealt for a legit, established player or held on to instead of trading him for said player, it works out for the team who trades for/holds on to the established player.

That 95% figure may be high, but remember, I'm a Mets fan.

Jeff Bagwell disagrees...

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I like the deal. You can mince over details, but the Royals have a major league starting rotation and bullpen for the first time in forever. I like the fact that Luke will be competing for the #5 spot in the rotation and likely out of the rotation in June once we get our other starters back.

As for the lineup, the Royals just need their current lineup to produce as expected. If Moose continues to develop and Hosmer puts his sophomore slump behind him, we're going to have a good lineup in place. We've been living on hopes and dreams out of Omaha for years. We've got a quality team now with this move.

[molson]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Jeff Bagwell disagrees...

The fact that the go-to example goes back almost 25 years now kind of proves the point. There's been others since then, but I definitely agree with Logan that prospects are way overrated generally.

[ISiddiqui]

I think he was just comparing it to the player who will likely be voted in as a Hall of Famer this year.

The closest comparison is likely the Bedard trade that saw Adam Jones (among others) go to Baltimore.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I think he was just comparing it to the player who will likely be voted in as a Hall of Famer this year.

The closest comparison is likely the Bedard trade that saw Adam Jones (among others) go to Baltimore.

Or the Texas/Atlanta trade involving Teixeira for Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, etc.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by molson

The fact that the go-to example goes back almost 25 years now kind of proves the point. There's been others since then, but I definitely agree with Logan that prospects are way overrated generally.

I just used Bagwell because he's one of my favorite players of all time. I just think the Royals got ripped off, the #1, #3, and #6 prospects in your organization for a pitcher that has amazing home splits and a young pitcher that couldn't beat out Jeff Niemann for a #5 spot just doesn't seem like enough.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by molson

The fact that the go-to example goes back almost 25 years now kind of proves the point. There's been others since then, but I definitely agree with Logan that prospects are way overrated generally.

Absolutely agree. I'm a firm believer in teams taking a shot within a certain window, especially when it's a team that's not been to the post-season in nearly 30 years. Even though, real talk Monday..this deal the Royals and Rays made looks like one of those SLOP deals I make for competitive balance. Looks a bit lopsided, but it strikes me as a situation where they thought they'd miss out on him and the Rays would take less from another team and they really wanted him.

Seems like they might have been able to get someone else for those prospects, but maybe they didn't want to pay? I dunno.

[TRO]

First reaction was: HATE IT

I've settled down to: Hate It

Myers: I think he'll be league average rather quickly and a solid 5/6 bat within a year or two. My biggest problem with losing him is that it means we keep Frenchy in RF. And that doesn't even account for his upside and contract.

Shields: I like him. I'm not too concerned with his age, though the innings count does bother me some. I would have rather continued to push for RA Dickey if we could have got him without trading Myers.

Davis is roughly equal to Odorizzi in my eye. The fact that Davis is already "established" gives him a few bonus points that outweight the extra cheap years that TB will get.

Montgomery: I loved him as a prospect but have resigned to the fact that he needed to be packed into a trade for change in scenery. If any team can fix him, I think it is TB.

Leonard: Far enough away that I shouldn't care, but since the value favors TB, we should be getting the throw in lotto ticket, not the other way around.

Bottom line: Pennant Race or Bust.

[sterlingice]

Pretty much spot on with where I am. Tho I think I'll take Odorizzi upside over Davis "known quantity" but it's pretty close between those two.

SI

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Logan

I think it's a great deal for the Royals, although I admittedly know nothing about the prospects outside of Myers. I do know that it seems like 95% of the time a top prospect is either dealt for a legit, established player or held on to instead of trading him for said player, it works out for the team who trades for/holds on to the established player.

That 95% figure may be high, but remember, I'm a Mets fan.

The problem with that is that Myers isn't merely a prospect. He was Minor League Player of the Year. Here's the last 20 years of that award:

1993 Manny Ramirez Outfielder AAA Cleveland Indians
1994 Derek Jeter Shortstop AAA New York Yankees
1995 Andruw Jones (1) Outfielder A Atlanta Braves
1996 Andruw Jones (2) Outfielder AAA Atlanta Braves
1997 Paul Konerko First baseman AAA Los Angeles Dodgers
1998 Eric Chavez Third baseman AAA Oakland Athletics
1999 Rick Ankiel Pitcher AAA St. Louis Cardinals
2000 Jon Rauch Pitcher AA Chicago White Sox
2001 Josh Beckett Pitcher AA Florida Marlins
2002 Rocco Baldelli Outfielder AAA Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2003 Joe Mauer Catcher AA Minnesota Twins
2004 Jeff Francis Pitcher AAA Colorado Rockies
2005 Delmon Young Outfielder AAA Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2006 Alex Gordon Third baseman AA Kansas City Royals
2007 Jay Bruce Outfielder AAA Cincinnati Reds
2008 Matt Wieters Catcher AA Baltimore Orioles
2009 Jason Heyward Outfielder AAA Atlanta Braves
2010 Jeremy Hellickson Pitcher AAA Tampa Bay Rays
2011 Mike Trout Outfielder AA Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2012 Wil Myers Outfielder AAA Kansas City Royals

The hit rate there is over 70%. That's star-level hit rate. That's better than the hit rate on the top free agents. Drayton Moore is a jackass for making this move. Glass is a bigger jackass for not firing him when the move was brought up. This is what happens when you have a dead-man-walking GM. They sell out the team's future for marginal improvements now.

I was talking to another Yankee fan the other day at work. We were both hoping that Cashman would find a way to gt in on that Myers action.

[Logan]

You're saying 70% of those players are considered "stars"? I'm not sure if I agree, but then again I admittedly don't follow baseball as closely as I used to.

If, looking into the future, at the 3-5 year point, Myers ends up where Heyward and Bruce are at their respective careers right now, would you consider it a bad deal for the Royals?

[JPhillips]

If Myers is Jay Bruce and Shields is with a different team in three years the only way the Royals win is if they were a playoff team with Shields.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Logan

You're saying 70% of those players are considered "stars"? I'm not sure if I agree, but then again I admittedly don't follow baseball as closely as I used to.

If, looking into the future, at the 3-5 year point, Myers ends up where Heyward and Bruce are at their respective careers right now, would you consider it a bad deal for the Royals?

I accidentally included Myers in the list. The previous year was Tim Salmon.

1992 Tim Salmon Outfielder AAA California Angels
1993 Manny Ramirez Outfielder AAA Cleveland Indians
1994 Derek Jeter Shortstop AAA New York Yankees
1995 Andruw Jones (1) Outfielder A Atlanta Braves
1996 Andruw Jones (2) Outfielder AAA Atlanta Braves
1997 Paul Konerko First baseman AAA Los Angeles Dodgers
1998 Eric Chavez Third baseman AAA Oakland Athletics
1999 Rick Ankiel Pitcher AAA St. Louis Cardinals
2000 Jon Rauch Pitcher AA Chicago White Sox
2001 Josh Beckett Pitcher AA Florida Marlins
2002 Rocco Baldelli Outfielder AAA Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2003 Joe Mauer Catcher AA Minnesota Twins
2004 Jeff Francis Pitcher AAA Colorado Rockies
2005 Delmon Young Outfielder AAA Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2006 Alex Gordon Third baseman AA Kansas City Royals
2007 Jay Bruce Outfielder AAA Cincinnati Reds
2008 Matt Wieters Catcher AA Baltimore Orioles
2009 Jason Heyward Outfielder AAA Atlanta Braves
2010 Jeremy Hellickson Pitcher AAA Tampa Bay Rays
2011 Mike Trout Outfielder AA Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Double counting Jones, since he won twice, we have 15/20. And all of these guys produced while making the minimum. You'd think that last part would be important to a team like the Royals.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by oykib

Double counting Jones, since he won twice, we have 15/20. And all of these guys produced while making the minimum. You'd think that last part would be important to a team like the Royals.

And I think focusing too much on that last part has been why the Royals are the Royals. Eventually you have to leverage your young talent into something more and take a shot. From there, we can differ on which players to use and which players to acquire...

I'm more interested in your answer to my second part of the statement, re: Myers' career shadowing Bruce's or Heyward's.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Logan

And I think focusing too much on that last part has been why the Royals are the Royals. Eventually you have to leverage your young talent into something more and take a shot. From there, we can differ on which players to use and which players to acquire...

I'm more interested in your answer to my second part of the statement, re: Myers' career shadowing Bruce's or Heyward's.

I'd say that twenty percent less than the average production of the outfielders on that list would be worth more than Shields. And I think no team can separate the pay from the production, escpecially a team like the Royals. Having Myers well below what he's worth for four years allows you to spend on other guys with those savings.

[stevew]

I was tabulating WAR, and got tired, but most of those hitters in the last 20 years have been worth at least 20WAR over their first 6 years. Shields and Davis will have to be so valuable if they are to somewhat equalize the return on Myers alone.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Logan

You're saying 70% of those players are considered "stars"? I'm not sure if I agree, but then again I admittedly don't follow baseball as closely as I used to.

If, looking into the future, at the 3-5 year point, Myers ends up where Heyward and Bruce are at their respective careers right now, would you consider it a bad deal for the Royals?

Yes.

[molson]

If Myers turned out to be a star with the Royals they would have unloaded him 2 seasons before free agency anyway.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Logan

You're saying 70% of those players are considered "stars"? I'm not sure if I agree, but then again I admittedly don't follow baseball as closely as I used to.

If, looking into the future, at the 3-5 year point, Myers ends up where Heyward and Bruce are at their respective careers right now, would you consider it a bad deal for the Royals?

Yes, god yes. 6 (really 7) cheap years of Jayson Heyward performance? Hayward is still! one of the top 10 trade assets on the market today.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by molson

If Myers turned out to be a star with the Royals they would have unloaded him 2 seasons before free agency anyway.

Greinke loudly and publicly wanted out but both Butler and Gordon have been extended with 4 year deals rather than go to free agency. While that's one of those quaint "oh, the Royals just sell off everyone" memes, they've actually been trying to lock up the in house talent of late. Who have the Royals had worth keeping the last 5 years besides that they've let walk?

It's unlikely for Hosmer and Moustakas as they're both Boras guys. But they've started on the next set of guys, too, with Escobar and Perez being locked up through their arby years and then club options for their first two free agent years. It's one of the very few things Moore is good at: he tries to lock up the talent when they're young, going back to Joakim Soria and Angel Berroa (yuck).

SI

[molson]

We'll see if it works and if they contend soon. History suggest otherwise. It's just that watching the ongoing optimism for the Royals over the last 10 years on this message board (and probably 20 years all together) is kind of depressing. The franchise doesn't deserve these loyal fans. (Edit: See, I'm from the northeast, so my sense of pessimism is actually because I like and feel bad for the Royals fanbase, that's how we're wired.)

[Katon]

Originally Posted by oykib

Double counting Jones, since he won twice, we have 15/20. And all of these guys produced while making the minimum. You'd think that last part would be important to a team like the Royals.

Narrow it down to hitters only, pitchers being more random in general, and it's 13/15 hits, with one of the misses being down to injury rather than talent (Baldelli).

Basically, if you have that level of hitting prospect, and he plays a position where you're currently starting Jeff Francoeur, other GMs should need to offer something ridiculous to pry him loose.

[rowech]

At what point does a team stop being every other team's minor league system and decide it's worth trying to win? I like the move for a change.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Logan

And I think focusing too much on that last part has been why the Royals are the Royals. Eventually you have to leverage your young talent into something more and take a shot. From there, we can differ on which players to use and which players to acquire...

I'm more interested in your answer to my second part of the statement, re: Myers' career shadowing Bruce's or Heyward's.

Heyward and Bruce are both in the top 56 of all MLB players in OPS+. That means both are top two players in their respective teams. Heyward has a war over 3, Bruce is down under 1.5 because of his defense.

Shields has an ERA+ of 108, 36th in the game with a WAR of 2.2.

So, even if this is a straight up Shields for Myers deal, the Rays come out on top if Myers follows those career arcs. Why? Well, instead of paying 13 million a year to get the 2 or so extra wins, they are paying team friendly salaries. So does the rest of the deal make it up for the Royals? Well, unless you think Wade David can return to the starting rotation and have a big impact, the likely answer is no as well.

The Rays don't need all of these prospects to hit. They need Myers to be an all star calibur player (and that's very likely) and they need one of the other prospects to make an impact in the next few years. If more do, it's just a bonus.

The Royals have to get to a playoff spot in order to come out ok in this deal. Even if they do, I'm not saying they win it, but if they don't, it turns into pure disaster for them. The GM will be fired,someone will have to be dealt to make up for all the prospects lost in this trade and they go back to ground zero.

If they decided to keep Myers, and signed a Kyle Loshe or comparable pitcher, would they have had to start over if it didn't work? No, they wouldn't have.

This deal gives them very little chance of success now and virtually no chance of success after the two years of Shields are done. This was a desperate move by a stupid GM.

As an aside, the Rockies bought into a lot of this crap last year. We are only one or two players away, get a couple of veterans in to stabilize things, wait for some injured pitchers to come back in May and everything will be golden. Well, just as the worst armchair QB could have foreseen, the moves were all poor right from the start. They were already bad and when the pitchers they hoped would come back didn't, they were screwed.

Say hello to your 2013 Kansas City Royals. Still not better than the Tigers, certainly not better than the other wild card contenders and no without the minor league player of the year to boot. As I don't think the Royals are good enough for the playoffs, the best they can hope for is for Shields to play really well for a year and a half and then move him at 2014's trade deadline. Maybe they'll get lucky and some other moronic team will think they are a pitcher away and be willing to give up the minor league player of the year and they won't lose as much ground as I think they just have. . .

[molson]

Originally Posted by rowech

At what point does a team stop being every other team's minor league system and decide it's worth trying to win? I like the move for a change.

I see what you're saying but the it's like they wait to try to compete until the GM is about to run out of time, and then they only make a shorter term panic move that maybe doesn't make a ton of sense. Early on in a GMs run for a bad team, he can get a lot of mileage just working towards "the future." Eventually that honeymoon period ends and you have to try to win. Moore thinks maybe if they can win 75 games this year that'll be "progress" and he can keep his job another year. But he'll be gone in a year or two, the next gm will get rid of the existing talent for "the future", royals fans will be excited about the new young players for a couple of years, and the circle of life will continue.

[Logan]

You guys bring up good points, and I'll admit defeat on this one. My Mets fandom has clearly clouded my judgment of when it makes sense to hold on to or deal top prospects. My intent was to argue more of the idea, along the lines of what molson said, that top prospects tend to be extremely overhyped and have more trade value at their prospect peak than they do at their eventual career peak (Joe Poz wrote this about Alex Gordon today).

[kcchief19]

TRO, I think all of your points are valid concerns and I don't blame you for feeling that way. But here's my take on the pieces -- I'm more optimistic.

Originally Posted by TRO

Myers: I think he'll be league average rather quickly and a solid 5/6 bat within a year or two. My biggest problem with losing him is that it means we keep Frenchy in RF. And that doesn't even account for his upside and contract.

As they say, you have to give up something to get something, and Myers is the something in this deal. If Myers ends up being Andru Jones, it's a horrible deal. If he ends up being Alex Gordon or Delmon Young, it's a very good deal. But consider this -- Hochevar, Chen and Sanchez put up a -3.3 WAR last year. Shields and Davis were good for 3.6. Unless Myers comes in and is the second coming of Mike Trout, this is a huge upgrade for the Royals. And while Myers might be a nice player, there's nothing he can do when you have a starting rotation that buries you in 9-0 hole after three innings, which happened A LOT last year.

Originally Posted by TRO

Shields: I like him. I'm not too concerned with his age, though the innings count does bother me some. I would have rather continued to push for RA Dickey if we could have got him without trading Myers.

The Royals aren't necessarily out of the Dickey sweepstakes since it was clear from the get-go that Myers was never available for him. But Odorizzi and Montgomery might have been the bait, so that may kill it. Look at Shields and Greinke side by side and it's tough to tell them apart. He's more a No. 2 than an ace, but I don't think there is a trade candidate or free agent better than Shields the Royals could get.

Originally Posted by TRO

Davis is roughly equal to Odorizzi in my eye. The fact that Davis is already "established" gives him a few bonus points that outweight the extra cheap years that TB will get.

I'm pretty much the same thought. I think there is a legitimate concern that Odorizzi is a No. 4/5 at best and may end up in the bullpen. As a starter, Davis also average about 6.5 innings a start, whereas Odorizzi has pretty much been locked in at 5.5 innings. That's not the Royals babying him, it's just that he throws a lot of pitches and is very inefficient. I think Davis has more upside than Odorizzi, and is entering his prime.

Originally Posted by TRO

Montgomery: I loved him as a prospect but have resigned to the fact that he needed to be packed into a trade for change in scenery. If any team can fix him, I think it is TB.

Completely agree. Baseball America is fantastic, but the fact that they and anyone else thinks Montgomery is a top prospect is insane. He didn't have a bad year, he's had two horrible years. If wasn't a first round pick who dominated through A-ball, he wouldn't be. But outside his first half season at AA in 2010, he's been atrocious. Maybe it's the whole "long toss" nonsense that has ruined him. If TB can fix him, great -- would be nice to see him capitalize on the talent. But that was never going to happen here.

Originally Posted by TRO

Leonard: Far enough away that I shouldn't care, but since the value favors TB, we should be getting the throw in lotto ticket, not the other way around.

I see the point on the lottery ticket. If we weren't getting the cash/PTNBL, I'd probably agree. But if the PTNBL is a 2012 draft pick we like, it could be a wash. But Leonard is so low on the list that I'm not too worried.

Originally Posted by TRO

Bottom line: Pennant Race or Bust.

Lock step here. If the Royals make the playoffs in 2013 or '14, it's a great deal. The increase in enthusiasm, revenue and relevance will more than offset the loss of a great prospect. The only way I see this deal being an utter failure is if Shields blows out his arm or Myers is a HOFer.

I can see the argument from some that the Royals didn't get enough value. I think the rest of baseball overvalues Odorizzi and Montgomery, so perhaps we should have gotten more. I'd be happier if only one of these guys were in the deal. But while the rest of baseball is high on Myers, the Royals like Jorge Bonifacio better, and he's about two years behind Myers. Myers showed more power but Bonifacio shows a bit more discipline at the same point in their careers.

But my only real concern about the deal is that Tampa Bay usually wins these trades in the long run. What do they know that we don't know about Shields and Davis?

Another point: When a team is willing to trade a guy like Myers, you have ask a question -- what do they know that we don't know? The Royals know that Myers strikes out more than once a game and shows no willingness to learn more discipline. I have little doubt that Myers will challenge 200 strikeouts in a full season given the chance.

Second, Myers could care less about fielding. He's a great athlete and started at catcher for the Royals, but was so bad that they moved him around the diamond until finally giving up and shoving him in the outfield. He played CF mainly last year, mostly because he has speed. He will play a below average RF in the majors.

That said, I like Myers and I whince at not having him. But I'm happier today than I was yesterday.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

But my only real concern about the deal is that Tampa Bay usually wins these trades in the long run. What do they know that we don't know about Shields and Davis?

This was one of the major points against the trade for the Royals that I originally came up with as well. I think I heard this from Simmons re: the NBA: If you're a GM, and your secretary tells you that RC Buford or Sam Presti is on the other line, you should probably not take the call.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by oykib

I accidentally included Myers in the list. The previous year was Tim Salmon.

1992 Tim Salmon Outfielder AAA California Angels
1993 Manny Ramirez Outfielder AAA Cleveland Indians
1994 Derek Jeter Shortstop AAA New York Yankees
1995 Andruw Jones (1) Outfielder A Atlanta Braves
1996 Andruw Jones (2) Outfielder AAA Atlanta Braves
1997 Paul Konerko First baseman AAA Los Angeles Dodgers
1998 Eric Chavez Third baseman AAA Oakland Athletics
1999 Rick Ankiel Pitcher AAA St. Louis Cardinals
2000 Jon Rauch Pitcher AA Chicago White Sox
2001 Josh Beckett Pitcher AA Florida Marlins
2002 Rocco Baldelli Outfielder AAA Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2003 Joe Mauer Catcher AA Minnesota Twins
2004 Jeff Francis Pitcher AAA Colorado Rockies
2005 Delmon Young Outfielder AAA Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2006 Alex Gordon Third baseman AA Kansas City Royals
2007 Jay Bruce Outfielder AAA Cincinnati Reds
2008 Matt Wieters Catcher AA Baltimore Orioles
2009 Jason Heyward Outfielder AAA Atlanta Braves
2010 Jeremy Hellickson Pitcher AAA Tampa Bay Rays
2011 Mike Trout Outfielder AA Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Double counting Jones, since he won twice, we have 15/20. And all of these guys produced while making the minimum. You'd think that last part would be important to a team like the Royals.

If Myers turns out to be the average of this list, I'm OK with it. I've gotten two starting pitchers for the next Alex Gordon? Oh, and hey, we already have the original Alex Gordon.

The two years of Shields for six years of Myers is a legitimate complaint. Would I have prefered the Royals kept Myers and signed Brandon McCarthy? Yeah, probably. But this deal makes financial sense for the Royals in that they have some contracts coming off the books next year and have the increase in TV revenue coming in 2014 that makes this a bit of a wash.

You guys don't understand how bad the Royals rotation was last year and has been for almost 20 years. This deal alone from a WAR perspective improves this team by 7 wins a game, and Myers wasn't going to do that. Add in a full season of Guthrie and that could be 10 wins. If Hosmer, and Moustakas take steps forward, that's about 5-7 wins. A full season of Salvador Perez is going to be worth 2-3 more wins.

Could it all implode? Absolutely. But these are the kind of deals you have to make if you want to be relevant.