NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread

[stevew]

The colts can get to 55-60 million dollars under the cap with simple restructures on 4-5 guys. Maybe they just use the threat of making the deal after the draft to force Baltimore to accept #4 and a second in 2024 as compensation.

This whole thing would be over if Lamar had an agent.

[flere-imsaho]

At this point if I was an NFL GM I'd be tempted to give him his 5-year, 250M 100% guaranteed contract, but put in the fine print that every year after the first is a team option and just see if he notices.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Yeah, I don't know how things might work from here. In theory, if Lamar talked with, say, the Colts... and worked out a deal where they'd trade for him on the one year franchise tender, then maybe he could force that sort of deal, right?

So, the moving parts could be:
1. Colts and Lamar agree to a new contract
2. Colts and Ravens agree to a deal
3. Lamar signs Ravens 1y tender
4. Ravens trade Lamar to Colts per the deal
5. Lamar signs new deal with Colts

In theory, that seems to be how this could work, right? Presumably for something other than the "two firsts."

yes, quik -- that's what happened in frank clark's case when he went from SEA to KCY. he cannot be traded for more than two firsts in this case under the tag. frank clark went for essentially 1st+2nd. also, no player can be involved in the transaction.

[Solecismic]

It would be a shame if his insistence on not having an agent ended up costing the Ravens and Jackson that career relationship. This seems so preventable, and Baltimore has a reputation for being very good at working with players on this sort of thing. I wonder if that's going to be a deterrent. Whoever Jackson relies on for advice seems to be very bad at it.

The NFL won't take on the Eagles and their quarterback sneak missile. The numbers on it are hard to digest. So will other teams copy the play? Seems like a major injury waiting to happen - can't control the push from behind and there are eleven guys on the other side basically launching themselves at the quarterback from different angles.

I suppose there's a rule against it, but it would be fun to see a team with a special "fourth-down" quarterback - Eddie Gaedel style. Gets a shotgun snap, tucks it in, then the other three skill players pick him up and do the human cannonball thing over the line. The old XFL would have been perfect for it.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I
I suppose there's a rule against it, but it would be fun to see a team with a special "fourth-down" quarterback - Eddie Gaedel style. Gets a shotgun snap, tucks it in, then the other three skill players pick him up and do the human cannonball thing over the line. The old XFL would have been perfect for it.

That would be entertaining (at least until the first serious injury) but definitely against the rules. They can push you, but you can't leave the ground.

I guess you could direct snap to a 350 pound nose tackle, and have two other 300 pounders push him.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

This whole thing would be over if Lamar had an agent.

Does he need an agent if he is not negotiating?

I have not been keeping up with the reports so I may have missed something. Let's say it is true that Lamar does not want a fully guaranteed contract like Deshaun Watson. But he wants the Watson contract with $200 million guaranteed. Not $199m, $200m or more. What if it is $229m which is $1m less than Watson? He does not need an agent for that if he is not taking less than that figure. That is not a judgement on whether he should being asking for that much or if the Ravens should give him that much. It just seems like the Ravens are not hitting the number he is looking for so there is no deal. If he had an agent and the agent was trying to convince him to take less, I would question who the agent is really working for. Lamar or the team? If the agent would tell Lamar the Ravens are not budging and no one else will and Lamar decided to take less, that is a different story.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Does he need an agent if he is not negotiating?

I have not been keeping up with the reports so I may have missed something. Let's say it is true that Lamar does not want a fully guaranteed contract like Deshaun Watson. But he wants the Watson contract with $200 million guaranteed. Not $199m, $200m or more. What if it is $229m which is $1m less than Watson? He does not need an agent for that if he is not taking less than that figure. That is not a judgement on whether he should being asking for that much or if the Ravens should give him that much. It just seems like the Ravens are not hitting the number he is looking for so there is no deal. If he had an agent and the agent was trying to convince him to take less, I would question who the agent is really working for. Lamar or the team? If the agent would tell Lamar the Ravens are not budging and no one else will and Lamar decided to take less, that is a different story.

It is something like that. Basically all we know from Lamar is that he did not ask for 5 year/$250 million guaranteed, but he doesn't think the 3 years/$133 million that the Ravens offered was enough. It might be he wants $200 million plus, or it might be he would settle for $150-175. It doesn't look like anyone but the Ravens are willing to even discuss it with him.

[stevew]

Jackson apparently tweeted his message while Harbaugh was in the middle of a press conference

[Solecismic]

Both sides have been very quiet, relative to what we usually hear about these things (which is often spun toward one side or outright misleading).

The new information today is that Jackson requested a trade on March 2, which was days before the franchise player deadline.

This means Baltimore franchised him simply to protect their rights. And they used the non-exclusive tag just to get something in place, knowing it was unlikely he'd sign a new contract. So that $13 million difference between non-exclusive and exclusive was important - they still need to field a team under the cap.

Harbaugh keeps saying he expects Jackson back, is trying to stay out of it. Baltimore's management says nothing. Everything reported, other than Jackson's Tweets, is prefaced by "insiders say..." which could be coming from people and places that have nothing to do with the team or Jackson.

Since we're now past the time an offer would have come in had Jackson negotiated with another team, it's reasonable to conclude that no team has made a serious effort.

One reason is likely that Baltimore would match it unless it was so high that it made no sense. Teams have to clear enough cap space to make an offer. To do that, then have it matched, would be difficult. With all the guaranteed money expected, and most of it landing outside of 2023 because no one can clear absurd amounts, what happens if Jackson gets hurt? His style of play will likely lead to more injuries, even though he's as big and strong as a linebacker. It doesn't help that the Ravens haven't done well in the playoffs with him and that he's missed significant time the last couple of years.

The franchise tag is designed to prevent player movement. That's what it's there for. It's also designed, with the escalators, not to be used on the same player three years running.

I still think this works itself out and Jackson remains a Raven, but I don't think this is an example of collusion. The Arizona and Cleveland contracts for Murray and Watson haven't worked out well so far. Maybe Arizona and Cleveland were the only teams willing to do something like that? While record contracts often set a new market level, those contracts might be the point at which they don't. If it were just money, sure. But there's a cap, and guaranteed money at that level can break it.

If I'm at the NFLPA, what I'm looking for in the next negotiation is a piece where money paid to injured players does not count under the cap, even when part of a guaranteed contract. Seems reasonable, but then there's going to be incentive to game it.

[miked]

I don't understand why everyone puts the blame on Jackson. The Ravens have had years to negotiate a new contract and did not because they feel he is not worth top dollar. Also, the offers out there of the 3 year 130M is essentially the value of 3 years worth of franchise tagging. If the Ravens feel he was going to be the man, they would never have let it get here. Because Jackson does not have an agent or media folks, the Ravens have been able to control the narrative. I mean, Wilson and Murray got like 160M guaranteed, so clearly the value of Jackson is between 170-240M. Put him on Indy with Taylor and a weak division, they could easily make the playoffs.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by miked

I don't understand why everyone puts the blame on Jackson.

Because he is the one insisting that his entire contract be fully guaranteed. That's it, that is the story on "why."

The 3/133 was a fiction and misreported. That is not a fair description of the Ravens' best offer.

It's certainly possible that the Ravens end up walking away from his demands, but it won't be because they were unwilling to pay him "more than Murray," it will be because they were unwilling to do 5-6 years fully guaranteed.

[molson]

The scariest thing about Jackson is he hasn't been great as a passer since 2019.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Because he is the one insisting that his entire contract be fully guaranteed. That's it, that is the story on "why."

The 3/133 was a fiction and misreported. That is not a fair description of the Ravens' best offer.

It's certainly possible that the Ravens end up walking away from his demands, but it won't be because they were unwilling to pay him "more than Murray," it will be because they were unwilling to do 5-6 years fully guaranteed.

While some believe that the 3/133 is fiction, others believe that the reports Jackson wants a fully guaranteed contract is also fiction. If the Ravens are willing to pay Jackson more than Murray, that has to mean they are willing to give him more guaranteed money if they are serious. Just for round numbers sake, if I had to guess Lamar wants between $200-$210 million guaranteed. I don't think the Ravens want to break $200 million.

[flere-imsaho]

If I'm the Ravens, it's not about the money, per se, but what all that guaranteed money does to my cap a year (or a few) down the line if Lamar can't play 17 games, or can no longer play at an elite level. It's the multi-year destruction of team competitiveness I'd be worried about.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by molson

The scariest thing about Jackson is he hasn't been great as a passer since 2019.

His ANY/A from a small sample size of four career playoffs games is 4.01. In his lone playoff win (2020 season), his running destroyed the Titans, which had a very poor defense for a playoff team. The next week, a stronger defense, Buffalo, shut him down completely, allowing three points. The week after that, Buffalo gave up 38 to Kansas City.

So, yes, the question is what do you about a guy who has won a lot of games, but not big games? He's worth building around, but is he worth the kind of contract that confines for team for years.?

Hard to answer that question. Every metric I have indicates his passing is meh and his running is feast or famine with feast being a really nice one worthy of Game of Thrones... until that Red Wedding thing.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If I'm the Ravens, it's not about the money, per se, but what all that guaranteed money does to my cap a year (or a few) down the line if Lamar can't play 17 games, or can no longer play at an elite level. It's the multi-year destruction of team competitiveness I'd be worried about.

I get that POV. I can't say that the Ravens or any other team should give him all that money guaranteed. My only question is what is "all that guaranteed money" for both sides? All the focus has been on Lamar wanting the Watson contract. Let's throw that away and use the Murray contract as the starting point. That puts the guaranteed money somewhere between $190-$229 million at the extremes. I am just assuming that the Ravens view the Watson contract as an outlier and the starting point on negotiations is the Murray contract. I am also assuming Lamar is thinking he deserves at least $10m more guaranteed than Murray. I am not a salary cap expert but does it make sense for anyone to give any QB $200m? $210m? Is Lamar really turning that down?

If I am the Ravens, I would probably look at the Watson AND the Murray contracts as outliers. The starting point would probably be the Russell Wilson contract with $165m guaranteed. But if the Murray contract is the starting point and everything else I said above is accurate, is a total of $20m really that big of a difference over a 5-6 year contract? That is why I don't think there is any real negotiating going on. The $189.5 guarantee in that contract is just as much of a problem IMO. Maybe the Ravens just wait to see what the Chargers and the Bengals (chuckle) give Herbert and Burrow.

[stevew]

PHOENIX -- The jersey No. 0 is coming to rosters across the NFL.

The league voted Tuesday to allow all players other than offensive and defensive linemen to wear the jersey No. 0. The proposal was submitted by the Philadelphia Eagles, and also allows kickers and punters to use any jersey numeral between 0-49 and 90-99.

[flere-imsaho]

Great post, miami_fan. It's taken me 24 hours to figure out how to articulate this, but I wonder if another part of the reason there doesn't seem to be a lot of negotiating going on is that it suits the Ravens not to be negotiating right now.

As you've laid out, maybe there isn't a lot of daylight between what Jackson wants and what the Ravens are willing to offer, in a negotiation. But given that the Ravens steadfastly refused to discuss/negotiate the contract the past couple of years, there does seem to be some evidence here that they just don't want to be tied to him, long-term. I think that stems from risk aversion. First, there's the injury issues. Second, as Jim & molson pointed out, one can ask questions about a) recent performance and b) post-season performance.

So, I suspect what's going on is that there's no negotiating going on because Jackson doesn't feel he needs to negotiate (because he feels that whatever demand he's made of the Ravens is both clear & non-negotiable) and the Ravens would prefer to move on, but ideally to do so by having another team give him the money he wants to not make it seem that they're moving on because of Jackson, but because they couldn't/wouldn't pay a Watson or Murray-style contract.

Should any team spend a quarter, or more, of their salary cap on a QB? I'd say yes, because QB is so important, but you need to be sure that the QB is either elite right now, or rounding into being elite, and can also stay on the field. Different teams are going to have different risk temperaments about that, and also, there's a point (maybe 40% of the cap? 50%) where it does become untenable from a team-building standpoint.

[Swaggs]

As a side note to the Jackson/no agent piece of this: I was thinking about the fact that you never see him on national tv deals and wondering if that is a) no representation, b) his personality, c) maybe a little racism - and thinking it is probably a little of each, but mostly a.

If you think about quarterbacks with TV ads and various endorsements (shoe/clothing brands, etc.), where does he rank? Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady have had a ton of commercials and Stafford seemed to cash in well from his Super Bowl win. And Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson both pretty had good national exposure up until last year. In looking at some online lists, Allen, Prescott, and Cousins (Cousins?) seem to be on top 10 lists, as well (among active players, the Watt brothers and Stefon Diggs hover around there, too). And OBJ and Cam Newton were also big earners up until a few years ago.

Recently retired players like the Mannings (Peyton is probably the king, overall), Marshawn Lynch, Brees, Romo, and Gronk are all probably doing as well or better than any active players. Even Favre had some national deals up until he got in trouble.

Has Jackson had any major endorsement deals or has he just been leaving money on the table while in his prime? That makes his failure to have an agent seem even worse.

[Swaggs]

Dola.... found this a minute ago: Does Lamar Jackson have the endorsement deals that a player of his status should? - ProFootballTalk

Here's the summary:

Really, where is the shoe deal of the magnitude that Lamar should have? Where are the commercials with Nike, Reebok, Adidas, or whoever that prominently feature Lamar Jackson as the marketing force he should be? Remember the Michael Vick Experience commercial from Nike? Some major company has missed out on an excellent opportunity to market their products to a generation of Lamar Jackson fans through similar strategies.

In June 2021, it was Dak Prescott, not Lamar Jackson, who became the only NFL quarterback under the Nike Jordan brand. Yes, Prescott is the quarterback of America’s Team. But Jackson is (or should be) much closer to fitting the definition of America’s Quarterback than Dak.

Bottom line? Where are the endorsement deals that properly reflect a player of Jackson’s status? He has the Pro Era VR deal and, as of 2020, something with Oakley. A player of his skills and standing should have more. Much more.

He also should be making more from the Ravens. Much more.

That’s our overriding point. Yes, agents take a piece of the pie. But they often get a much bigger pie than a player can get without one.

People can get mad at us for saying that, or they can accept the fundamental truth. There’s a real difference between negotiating contracts like this one your own and negotiating contracts like this with the assistance of people who negotiate contracts like this for a living.

[Ksyrup]

He's not in any danger of going to jail, but that doesn't mean he still doesn't have a fool for a client.

[NobodyHere]

Truth or smoke?

Will Levis reportedly plummeting down draft boards

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Truth or smoke?

Will Levis reportedly plummeting down draft boards

I've been seeing this too. I was going straight off the eye test in watching games and thats why I was not a fan. If he's bombing interviews and stuff too, damn. I might put him over on the Dont Draft board. But someone will likely overreach due to his measurables, I just dont know if its first round or not. Crazy.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

But given that the Ravens steadfastly refused to discuss/negotiate the contract the past couple of years, there does seem to be some evidence here that they just don't want to be tied to him, long-term.

An interesting point of view on the Ravens/Jackson contract situation. It's true that the Ravens have not yet been willing to offer a "fully guaranteed offer" that meets Jackson's liking. But the phrasing above is not at all accurate. The Ravens have made multiple multi-year offers to Jackson that are generally in keeping with the ordinary flow of negotiations like these.

September 2022

early 2023

I'm not saying that it's absurd for Jackson to reject either of these offers. That's fine, and probably was to be expected. But it's not like they have walked away from the table for years, or shut him out. They have made good faith offers, he insists on a groundbreaking offer, and they are stuck as a result.

I know this makes me sound like I'm a full-on apologist for the front office... but the lack of other teams running to offer Jackson the 6 year, fully guaranteed, market setting offer is... telling. There may be a team desperate enough to do so, or there may not be. The Ravens are leaving multiple doors open to keep him on a revised agreement, or to get major compensation for him. Their actions here do not seem to be unfair or absurd, to me.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Truth or smoke?

Will Levis reportedly plummeting down draft boards

Maybe fall to the 2nd round for the Falcons?

I think if Stroud or Young fall to #8, the Falcons should go for it. Never really thought Richardson or Levis should be in the same conversation as those 2.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think if Stroud or Young fall to #8, the Falcons should go for it.

In what world does that happen?

[Edward64]

In theory, there are potentially a billion+ multiverses …

Okay. Maybe the Falcons should trade up

[GrantDawg]

I don't think the Falcons are interested in a quarterback at all. They are going to give Ridder a shot, and if that doesn't work out they will find a qb next year. They are going are still going to have a large amount od cap space available next year, but shouldn't have nearly as many holes in their roster.

The best way to describe what the Falcons are doing right now is Moneyball. They are emphasizing what most teams are undervaluing right now (a power run game). They plan on trotting out multi-tight ends beside big physical wide receivers, and are going to try to out muscle undersized defenses that are mostly built to stop teams that play speedy receivers and fling the ball around the field. At the same time they have taken big steps in improving the defense on every level along with numerous signings on the defensive line.

I am really excited about what they have done so far. If they play the draft right, it will be the cherry on top.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The best way to describe what the Falcons are doing right now is Moneyball. They are emphasizing what most teams are undervaluing right now (a power run game). They plan on trotting out multi-tight ends beside big physical wide receivers, and are going to try to out muscle undersized defenses that are mostly built to stop teams that play speedy receivers and fling the ball around the field. At the same time they have taken big steps in improving the defense on every level along with numerous signings on the defensive line.

And I am here for it. I want multiple "signature" teams in the NFL, not just 31 copycats of whatever was selling last year. It's okay if the Kingsbury offense was revealed as a fraud, I still want someone else to try out a full-on Air Raid scheme, and someone else to play a D without any traditional linebackers, and someone else to run a two-QB scheme by design. Variety, bring me variety!

[cuervo72]

Bring back Chip Kelly!

[QuikSand]

F yeah

[QuikSand]

But seriously, someone out there ought to revive the pace-based offense concepts that he adored... there's something there, I think. Bears, go do it. Somebody.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

And I am here for it. I want multiple "signature" teams in the NFL, not just 31 copycats of whatever was selling last year. It's okay if the Kingsbury offense was revealed as a fraud, I still want someone else to try out a full-on Air Raid scheme, and someone else to play a D without any traditional linebackers, and someone else to run a two-QB scheme by design. Variety, bring me variety!

I agree, The only thing I worry about is that teams always seem to catch up with these things and slow them down. Still, you can have big success pushing outside of group think at least for awhile. But then I remember the promise but then the downfall of the Run and Gun days in Atlanta.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Truth or smoke?

Will Levis reportedly plummeting down draft boards

Folks say that the one thing that can really move a prospect at this point in the process (other than gas mask bongs) is interviews. The tape is out there, and everyone's combine measurables look good.

But if you can't be coached up to seem normal in an interview? That's a red flag.

[JPhillips]

I was looking through drafts, and grabbing the #2QB, with the very notable exception of Mahomes, has not been a path to a franchise QB.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I don't think the Falcons are interested in a quarterback at all. They are going to give Ridder a shot, and if that doesn't work out they will find a qb next year. They are going are still going to have a large amount od cap space available next year, but shouldn't have nearly as many holes in their roster.

The best way to describe what the Falcons are doing right now is Moneyball. They are emphasizing what most teams are undervaluing right now (a power run game). They plan on trotting out multi-tight ends beside big physical wide receivers, and are going to try to out muscle undersized defenses that are mostly built to stop teams that play speedy receivers and fling the ball around the field. At the same time they have taken big steps in improving the defense on every level along with numerous signings on the defensive line.

I am really excited about what they have done so far. If they play the draft right, it will be the cherry on top.

So does this mean they go Bijan Robinson with their first pick? He seems to be the missing piece to this strategy.

[Swaggs]

Am I the only one that is more than a little sad that PFF's mock draft simulator only allows you to mock two rounds unless you have a subscription?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Am I the only one that is more than a little sad that PFF's mock draft simulator only allows you to mock two rounds unless you have a subscription?

Aw. That's new

Last week I was playing around with 4 round drafts

SI

[sterlingice]

dola- and trades are restricted now, too

SI

[Solecismic]

The Levis story is an interesting one. You have an older quarterback with experience who has a bit of an injury history. He runs like Josh Allen, which means he's taken some hits. He has a phenomenal arm and has played in a system much like one he'd run in the NFL. He hasn't won a tremendous number of games. And he throws interceptions - more than you'd be comfortable with at the NFL level.

So the question is whether that can be coached. Everything's almost there, but can you work with the guy to go that last mile?

Why is he slipping from in the conversation, at least, for #1, to potentially slipping out of the top ten? What does slipping mean? Why would you, if you were running an NFL team, ever let anyone outside of decision-making circle know anything about any decision?

It wasn't Combine interviews. His pro day was last Friday. He had some great throws, but he wasn't pin-point on every throw. There was enough to suggest that maybe the interception problem can't easily be coached out, because you're not facing a pass rush on pro day. Any mechanics issue with how he throws means he's a project, not a first-day starter as people were projecting.

So that changes things. Now you're talking about a prototype NFL quarterback who may have accuracy issues that take a while to iron out or may never work out. And he's older than most rookies. What's changed is the risk in picking him, not the potential.

I doubt he gets far out of the top ten. Once he gets past six, the cost of trading up isn't as high and there are a lot of teams that would happily take on that risk if it the cost isn't extreme.

[Swaggs]

Feels like it may be a story slipped to the media by agents of other players.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

So does this mean they go Bijan Robinson with their first pick? He seems to be the missing piece to this strategy.

It is a real possibility. I imagine it depends on who is there at 8. Their philosophy is best available regardless of need, but there might be a couple of players still available that would be ahead of him. Christian Gonzales being one. Tyree Wilson also. But there is a good bit of smoke around Robinson. I think they would also be very interested in trading down and then picking Robinson or Nolan Smith who they also seem high on.


They are definitely picking up a RB in the drafy. Algiers went for a 1,000 yards last year, but I don't think they are interested in just riding one back into the ground. Paterson is 32, and they are likely to limit his touches. So if they don't pick Robinson, then they are definitely going to pick one in the third or fourth round.

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I doubt he gets far out of the top ten. Once he gets past six, the cost of trading up isn't as high and there are a lot of teams that would happily take on that risk if it the cost isn't extreme.

Which is exactly what the Falcons are hoping for. Anyone want to move from 14-18 to 8 for Levis?

[Honolulu_Blue]

The Athletic is reporting that the Raiders have already crossed Jalen Carter off their draft board.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

dola- and trades are restricted now, too

SI

Yeah. This is new. I was just doing full 7 round mocks with trades a couple weeks ago there for free.

I just moved on to here: 2023 NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Free Trades - Pro Football Network

For my mock draft simulation needs.

[Solecismic]

I'm not sold on any of the quarterbacks from last year. Even Purdy, who was phenomenal for a seventh-rounder. Purdy made that 49ers offense great.

I look at Pickett, who started most of the season, under ten yards per completed pass. I get that the NFL keeps moving to shorter, safer passing, but you've got to complete close to 70% of those when you usually need two completions for a first down, not one.

I understand why Atlanta's going with Ridder and trading out if Levis is available at #8 could be a great move. But then I look at Houston going two seasons now with their third-round quarterback who is meh, but serviceable, and I wonder what you tell the fans. If Ridder has a Davis Mills season, and you passed on Levis, that doesn't look good.

[GrantDawg]

Atlanta is looking at another off-season next year with a large amount of cap room. If Ridder looks rough, they can move on next year. They signed Taylor Heinicke if it goes too bad this year. As it is, they won 7 games last year with almost no money or depth and Marriotta being one of the worst starters in the NFL. Ridder looked better than he did in the limited amount of action he was in. If he continues to grow to even be serviceable, they have a shot at 9-10 wins.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

An interesting point of view on the Ravens/Jackson contract situation. It's true that the Ravens have not yet been willing to offer a "fully guaranteed offer" that meets Jackson's liking. But the phrasing above is not at all accurate. The Ravens have made multiple multi-year offers to Jackson that are generally in keeping with the ordinary flow of negotiations like these.

I probably didn't articulate my point all that well, then. I wonder if those offers they did make that Jackson turned down were more cap-friendly in, say, the 3rd year+ than what a "Watson-esque" type of deal would be for them?

If so, then my point was that possibly they've come to the conclusion that he's not going to accept a contract that doesn't create substantial risk for them 3+ years down the line, and so it suits them not to have to negotiate over that, currently.

I mean, every organization has a certain risk tolerance, and the Ravens seem, generally, to be one of the better-run NFL organizations. I'm suggesting that they believe the only contract he'll agree to simply creates more risk for them in the out years than they're willing to bear.

[tzach]

re: will levis, i completely agree with jim.

it's the nfl draft silly season for the media -- we know yr after yr that this last month before the draft features heavily biased and manipulated narratives about draftees.

it's that time of the year when anecdotal aspects are spun as absolute truths -- last year, it was the nonexistent hand size vs fumble frequency correlation (re: pickett).

[HomerSimpson98]

Pickett hasnt exactly proved everyone wrong. I want him to succeed since he seems like a genuinely good dude but he has clear limitations.



Levis seems like a giant risk - protoypical size and all. I'd much rather pick up a DTR or Hendon Hooker in rounds 3-4, age and all.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98

Pickett hasnt exactly proved everyone wrong. I want him to succeed since he seems like a genuinely good dude but he has clear limitations.



Levis seems like a giant risk - protoypical size and all. I'd much rather pick up a DTR or Hendon Hooker in rounds 3-4, age and all.

I am hopeful, but don’t trust Pickett yet. I think he will be the starter the next two years, regardless of just about anything but injury, but I don’t see his ceiling anywhere near that of the other three young AFC North starting QBs and that worries me. I only saw UCLA play a few times last year, but I also think DTR has the potential to stick around awhile and potentially be interesting as a late round guy. I think someone will fall in love with HH and snag him in the first three rounds.