Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

So we know that Kwhit voted for Cronin and BrianD. Does that give us anything to go on? Do wolves go for people who are outright mentioning them in conversation? That seems to lead too much of a trail for us to follow, but I think fouts was going after a wolf when he got killed in Tombstone.

Wolves do all sorts of things.

Sometimes they go after someone who's getting a little too close for comfort.

Sometimes they go after someone who's historically a good player that they're afraid of.

Sometimes they go after someone in a one-on-one battle in hopes of kicking off a groundswell against the other in the argument.

In this game, they may be trying to pick off the STARS chief.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

So we know that Kwhit voted for Cronin and BrianD. Does that give us anything to go on? Do wolves go for people who are outright mentioning them in conversation? That seems to lead too much of a trail for us to follow, but I think fouts was going after a wolf when he got killed in Tombstone.

I'm glad Alan has reanalyzed his position, because I'm pretty confident that if I were the chief I would pile on to someone to hide my vote. A vote for a lynched player is simply cover at that point. It is a missed opportunity to "out" someone, but I think it is more important for the chief to not paint a target on his back and stay in the game.

I'll be in and out of contact today to take a closer look at the likely suspects, but right now, I don't feel like I have more than an inkling of which way to go.

I always reanalyze my positions. I'm not perfect and don't know everything obviously.. however I haven't changed my opinon that I think Fouts or St.Cronin (or possibly both) are bad. I think mathematically its my best play for the day.

[LoneStarGirl]

Alan you must have the easiest job in the world because you are consitently online during the day.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I don't think we can take anything out of KWhit's vote. He thought Brian was slightly suspicious because of a small thing he said, then he jumped back into our planned 2 man race. Seems like a perfectly normal I-don't-know-jack villager play D1.

I agree, I don't think kwhit's vote itself is very meaningful to us.

What I think is interesting to think about is if last night the wolfs thought it was meaningful though. If both cronin and BrianD were on their team would Kwhit moving from one to the other be enough to scare them into thinking he was the chief?

Would they have risked outing BrianD and/or Cronin in the process of eliminating what seemed to them like a likely police chief?

I currently am leaning to probably not, and they probably killed kwhit due to him being in a group of likely chiefs who was also an experienced and quality player, unrelated to BrianD alltogether.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Alan you must have the easiest job in the world because you are consitently online during the day.

I am a network engineer for a 15,000 person company worldwide. I handle the integration of companies that we aquire as well as other various day to day network type implementation project planning.

Probably 40% of my time is spent in meetings or conference calls where I can just sit on here while I listen to the call.

Right now we are in quarter end which implements a freeze time this weekend where the entire IT organization is not allowed to make any changes this weekend that could risk us having problems with numbers for the quarter. That means no changes this weekend, and very little planning this week for this weekend.

So this week is my light week

[Chubby]

Just a few notes:
While I should be home before the deadline tonight, it will still take a few mins for me to record all the votes to make sure I got everything correct.

Also, the night 2 deadline will be 7am as I have to work early in the morning for a change If anyone has a problem with that let me know, conditional orders will certainly be allowed tonight if that helps.

[Tyrith]

I think today we have to start working on these psuedo-alliances we see. The Lathum/Fouts connection bothers me. I'm going to wait for Fouts, like hoops is, but I'm concerned. Cronin doesn't seem like a bad guy to me. If he's a zombie he just went way risky way early, which doesn't seem like him. I think it's more likely he was just trying to stir up day one discussion and was acting stupid by contradicting himself -- self contradictions aren't a sign of wolfish but of just making mistakes, which I would argue a bad guy would be on higher alert for.

Alan...I don't know. He hasn't done TOO suspicious at this point -- the bullet kill yesterday was a perfectly reasonable kill, and being suspicious of cronin at this point is quite fair; I don't think he'd be an awful lynch. The amount of crap he's putting out there about the chief does bother me, though.

Overall I think we need to stop focusing on the chief so much. We're not going to be able to magically divine who the chief is today, or what his intent is, NOR DO WE WANT TO. All we're doing is giving the bad guys more information that they can actively use at this point. I'm all for us coming up with ideas on how the chief would be working, but please keep them to yourselves for a few days, so that when our bumbling around does get the chief killed we can actually use his (or her) death for some productive use.

Now that I've mentioned that I am slightly more suspicious of Alan. But right now the Fouts/Lathum thing bothers me the most.

[hoopsguy]

Going with the idea of zombies trying to pick off the STARS chief - KWhit could have been a person who identified a zombie with his vote. They worry that he may be the Police Chief and take their shot that night.

That theory still holds because he switched his vote to Cronin - who could potentially be in the same faction, but definitely remains unidentified. If he had switched instead to Bullet they would not have had to worry about him last night.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I agree, I don't think kwhit's vote itself is very meaningful to us.

What I think is interesting to think about is if last night the wolfs thought it was meaningful though. If both cronin and BrianD were on their team would Kwhit moving from one to the other be enough to scare them into thinking he was the chief?

Would they have risked outing BrianD and/or Cronin in the process of eliminating what seemed to them like a likely police chief?

I currently am leaning to probably not, and they probably killed kwhit due to him being in a group of likely chiefs who was also an experienced and quality player, unrelated to BrianD alltogether.

You'd have to assume bother cronin and brian are zombies, because umbrella can't do night kills....it's theoretically possible but damn that's unlikely, and I think they would figure we would go on to bigger and better things other than chasing down Brian based on a weak day 1 vote that got rescinded. In other words, if KWhit were alive would we care about the vote? My most likely scenario is that they took a night kill on someone they didn't expect to be guarded.

[Tyrith]

My main point on KWhit is this: if he WAS right about Brian wouldn't it make more sense to leave him alive and let the vote die in the mess that is Day One? I don't get the sense that KWhit was going to stalk Brian down, but he was just going with the small byte of information available. Although this is on the assumption that the wolves would think it that far through, but it seems really weak to me.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Going with the idea of zombies trying to pick off the STARS chief - KWhit could have been a person who identified a zombie with his vote. They worry that he may be the Police Chief and take their shot that night.

That theory still holds because he switched his vote to Cronin - who could potentially be in the same faction, but definitely remains unidentified. If he had switched instead to Bullet they would not have had to worry about him last night.

Thats what my thinking was about BrianD when I was asked. I think right now its a reach though, and very easy to setup BrianD in killing Kwhit last night.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

My main point on KWhit is this: if he WAS right about Brian wouldn't it make more sense to leave him alive and let the vote die in the mess that is Day One? I don't get the sense that KWhit was going to stalk Brian down, but he was just going with the small byte of information available. Although this is on the assumption that the wolves would think it that far through, but it seems really weak to me.

I agree. thats why I said I was leaning towards it not meaning much. But like I said someone asked me my thoughts about BrianD, so I answered.


Interesting though that it was Cronin asking me about BrianD.. because if the theory that brianD was bad is true, Cronin too would have been bad in that scenerio.

[BrianD]

Alan, you asked for thoughts on what other people were thinking, so I'll give you mine. Right now I am leaning toward st.cronin. I had the same thought as you that the chief would not have voted for Bullet, so st.cronin or Fouts probably got the chief's vote. I don't really think NTN is the chief, so that leaves st.cronin.

The only reason I hesitate about this vote is that it is possible that everyone on the block yesterday was good and the chief didn't want to out himself/herself and voted for a STARS member.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Alan, you asked for thoughts on what other people were thinking, so I'll give you mine. Right now I am leaning toward st.cronin. I had the same thought as you that the chief would not have voted for Bullet, so st.cronin or Fouts probably got the chief's vote. I don't really think NTN is the chief, so that leaves st.cronin.

The only reason I hesitate about this vote is that it is possible that everyone on the block yesterday was good and the chief didn't want to out himself/herself and voted for a STARS member.

I also didnt really think ntndeacon was the chief which is why I voted Cronin earlier. Im not against switching to fouts though, and I heavily considered it when lathum quickly plopped a vote down on Cronin with me after blasting me and my ideas.

I still am tempted to switching to fouts, but I kind of want to see what people do today, and I partially wonder if we have a fouts vs cronin run off, is it umbrella vs zombies? If so, what type of actions will we see from people trying to save their own if its close.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I think they would figure we would go on to bigger and better things other than chasing down Brian based on a weak day 1 vote that got rescinded. In other words, if KWhit were alive would we care about the vote? My most likely scenario is that they took a night kill on someone they didn't expect to be guarded.

I agree with Tyrith on this. It doesn't make sense to call more attention to Brian, I think that was pretty clearly a typical day 1 first vote. I could see more connection from thinking he might be the chief based on bullet being good, or from some connection to cronin. But it also seems just as likely that with multiple night action roles that they tried to find someone who was unlikely to be guarded.

[Tyrith]

I would personally much rather vote for Fouts than cronin right now. I just don't see cronin being bad and him playing in a way that get himself incriminated so quickly...although we'll probably have to kill him eventually so we can look at the voting records.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I would personally much rather vote for Fouts than cronin right now. I just don't see cronin being bad and him playing in a way that get himself incriminated so quickly...although we'll probably have to kill him eventually so we can look at the voting records.

If this is how you feel, then vote for Fouts. Its easy to say thats what you would rather do, but most people forget what is said. They don't typically forget votes as easily.

[Tyrith]

This goes back to me not wanting to put in the first vote. I'm definately not sure Fouts is a bad guy. What if he comes up good? People will use it as an excuse to kill _me_ for putting in the first vote, even though I just get to play more and want to actually do something. No, right now I'm going to sit because I have no assurances people are going to be reasonable with the voting records.

[BrianD]

Fouts seems pretty much like an unknown to me at this point. I don't remember getting any strong vibes from him yesterday and he did end up with just the one early vote. I guess I don't feel strongly enough about him yet to condemn him or to stand with him.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

This goes back to me not wanting to put in the first vote. I'm definately not sure Fouts is a bad guy. What if he comes up good? People will use it as an excuse to kill _me_ for putting in the first vote, even though I just get to play more and want to actually do something. No, right now I'm going to sit because I have no assurances people are going to be reasonable with the voting records.

In this game, if people want to kill you, they will find a reason.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by BrianD

In this game, if people want to kill you, they will find a reason.

Very true, but I'm gonna make them work for it!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Very true, but I'm gonna make them work for it!

If you want any tips on how to get people to vote for you, let me know. I can help you out

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yesterday you followed him on a vote with the supposition that he was the police chief. So what has changed? I knew he wasn't the Chief yesterday when he voted for me early, but how do you now have this info?

Your answer is in your question. Today he voted for me, therefore he is not the police chief. I'm going to go back and look at who some of the early votes for bullet were - I think we'll find some bad guys there.

[Tyrith]

Gone till around 3 EST.

[hoopsguy]

I don't see a lot of reasons to be an active poster but a timid voter, Tyrith.

That said, my vote isn't going out until someone posts information from last night, Fouts shows up, or Cronin answers my question from this morning on why he is now sure that Lathum is not the Police Chief.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't see a lot of reasons to be an active poster but a timid voter, Tyrith.

That said, my vote isn't going out until someone posts information from last night, Fouts shows up, or Cronin answers my question from this morning on why he is now sure that Lathum is not the Police Chief.

Lathum not being the police chief doesn't mean Cronin is a good guy.

[st.cronin]

(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(316) St.cronin votes Bulletsponge (10)
(343) Chief Rum votes Bulletsponge (11)

Based on this, as well as his vote for me today, I am going to advocate lynching Alan T today.

If I end up lynched, let us note that Alan T was vote #1 on 2 different Stars players.


unvote Lathum
vote AlanT

Until we get some better information, from a seer or a dead Police Chief, I suggest we just go down this list - lynch AT today, hoopsguy tomorrow, etc.

[st.cronin]

hoops I answered your question in post #523

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't see a lot of reasons to be an active poster but a timid voter, Tyrith.

That said, my vote isn't going out until someone posts information from last night, Fouts shows up, or Cronin answers my question from this morning on why he is now sure that Lathum is not the Police Chief.

hoops,i would assume cronin is drawing that belief from the fact that lathum voted for him yesterday...if lathum where the CP, he wouldnt have been the 3rd vote on Cronin (this logic only works from the perspective of cronin as a STARS member)

as far as the use of the logic of "the police chief would never have voted for bullet yesterday"....that is unbelievably flawed.....it was only last freaking game that not only did lathum vote for a fellow cowboy, he handed him over to the town and tied the freaking noose himself. i am rather surprised that Alan is ignoring that fact considering that he was the GM and watched it happen from the front row

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by saldana

hoops,i would assume cronin is drawing that belief from the fact that lathum voted for him yesterday...if lathum where the CP, he wouldnt have been the 3rd vote on Cronin (this logic only works from the perspective of cronin as a STARS member)

as far as the use of the logic of "the police chief would never have voted for bullet yesterday"....that is unbelievably flawed.....it was only last freaking game that not only did lathum vote for a fellow cowboy, he handed him over to the town and tied the freaking noose himself. i am rather surprised that Alan is ignoring that fact considering that he was the GM and watched it happen from the front row

Lathum's vote yesterday did not convince me of anything. Otherwise, I completely agree with you.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Lathum's vote yesterday did not convince me of anything. Otherwise, I completely agree with you.

He isnt talking about lathum's vote from yesterday. He is saying that he doesn't understand how I can say that the Police chief would not be voting for Stars to give us an accurate trail to look at upon his death when just last game Lathum voted his own team.

I personally don't see it as the same scenerio, since the police chief's benefit to his team primarily comes upon his death, whereas Lathum's move in that game was for deception, but you aren't the only one who is bringing this up today.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, the "lynch everyone in line on Bullet" is obviously a comfortable strategy for you since you are 10th in the list. As the person who is 2nd I'm less inclined to support this.

I would argue that the people who were involved with the surge of votes on Bullet when it was in the 5-5 range would make at least as much sense than the early voters on this one.

If you are in fact a member of STARS then the same logic you apply to Alan - voted 1st for two different STARS members - would apply equally to Lathum. I would be more inclined to go in this direction personally, although you don't have to twist my arm too hard to go after Alan.

Lathum has already set the table for you and Alan, Cronin. He said that he wants to gun for Alan next if you show up innocent.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, the "lynch everyone in line on Bullet" is obviously a comfortable strategy for you since you are 10th in the list. As the person who is 2nd I'm less inclined to support this.

I would argue that the people who were involved with the surge of votes on Bullet when it was in the 5-5 range would make at least as much sense than the early voters on this one.

If you are in fact a member of STARS then the same logic you apply to Alan - voted 1st for two different STARS members - would apply equally to Lathum. I would be more inclined to go in this direction personally, although you don't have to twist my arm too hard to go after Alan.

Lathum has already set the table for you and Alan, Cronin. He said that he wants to gun for Alan next if you show up innocent.

Thats because it will deflect heat from his boy Fouts.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, the "lynch everyone in line on Bullet" is obviously a comfortable strategy for you since you are 10th in the list. As the person who is 2nd I'm less inclined to support this.

I would argue that the people who were involved with the surge of votes on Bullet when it was in the 5-5 range would make at least as much sense than the early voters on this one.

If you are in fact a member of STARS then the same logic you apply to Alan - voted 1st for two different STARS members - would apply equally to Lathum. I would be more inclined to go in this direction personally, although you don't have to twist my arm too hard to go after Alan.

Lathum has already set the table for you and Alan, Cronin. He said that he wants to gun for Alan next if you show up innocent.

It would actually not be surprising at all to me to learn that Lathum and Alan were zombies. Remember Lathum crying wolf at Alan earlier? And then voting for me? hmmmm

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It would actually not be surprising at all to me to learn that Lathum and Alan were zombies. Remember Lathum crying wolf at Alan earlier? And then voting for me? hmmmm

I wouldnt be suprised if you were right about half of that.



See the fun thing about this game and what I have done is it feels like now I'm getting attacked by both Umbrella and the zombies And truth be told, it might not be a stretch to think Zombies + Umbrella = same number of players now as Stars. I think right now though the Stars still have 1 or 2 players on the others combined.

[path12]

So it looks like we held off the early showdown until day 2 -- that's progress!

It seems fairly obvious that Alan, cronin, hoops and Lathum can't all be on the same side (I'm not even looking at the Fouts angle yet either). Problem is as always who is who. Or which is which. Or whatever. Or the simple fact that it strikes me that a zombie wouldn't want to call attention to themselves this early, and that's really where I'd like to focus with my vote.

I do agree with hoops that the most likely bad guys are found on the votes for bullet after the 5-5 tie. So I need to start there, right after I go back through Alan's call out posts from yesterday, which is right after I finish this next project.

Sigh. WW makes my head hurt.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Black... and blue...
And who knows which is which
And who is who

[Abe Sargent]

I'll roll with the st cronin or Fouts logic for now.

Vote st. cronin

In the meantime, I have a Pet Shop Boys concert tonight, so after 5 or so, I'll be out for the evening.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

Path, those votes do not mean jack if Cronin is STARS. If we really want to learn if there was value in the lynch yesterday we have to go after Cronin. I would expect that we are going to come back to this again at some point if we do not decide to do it today.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by path12

I do agree with hoops that the most likely bad guys are found on the votes for bullet after the 5-5 tie.

This is only true if you assume I'm bad. Which I'm not. If you assume bullet and I are both Stars, which we are, then the bad guys had no incentive to vote either way.

[st.cronin]

Let me say this loud and clear:

The one person we know for sure is NOT the police chief is Alan T. Lynching anybody else carries a double risk that not only is that person stars, but he is the police chief. The police chief cannot reveal, and it would be a disaster to lynch him on day 2.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Let me say this loud and clear:

The one person we know for sure is NOT the police chief is Alan T. Lynching anybody else carries a double risk that not only is that person stars, but he is the police chief. The police chief cannot reveal, and it would be a disaster to lynch him on day 2.

You aren't the police chief, don't even try to pretend to be him trying to get someone else to out themselves in a way that it makes it obvious who it is.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Let me say this loud and clear:

The one person we know for sure is NOT the police chief is Alan T. Lynching anybody else carries a double risk that not only is that person stars, but he is the police chief. The police chief cannot reveal, and it would be a disaster to lynch him on day 2.

The funny thing is I was second guessing myself if I wanted to stay on you or switch to Fouts because of where Lathum put his vote, but then the way you worded this trying to sow seeds of doubts into people's minds that you may be the police chief when you clearly are not sealed the deal for me. I'll likely keep my vote on you.

[Alan T]

And I will take this a step further, if you somehow do push this to be a you vs me lynch today, I would rather take the death then the chief somehow trying to save me.

Since I dont have any special importance this game, my death likely will mean you are next Cronin (probably followed by Fouts and Lathum)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You aren't the police chief, don't even try to pretend to be him trying to get someone else to out themselves in a way that it makes it obvious who it is.

I give up. Lynch me. None of you know how to play this game.

[st.cronin]

unvote AlanT
vote st.cronin

This will be the last time I provide any analysis for a looooooong time. All it does is get my lynched.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Black... and blue...
And who knows which is which
And who is who

That reminds me -- I'm planning on running a short game at some point based on Dark Side of the Moon. It's totally ripped off from another site, but it was a pretty good scenario.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I give up. Lynch me. None of you know how to play this game.

Hopefully this will be a good learning experience for me

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is only true if you assume I'm bad. Which I'm not. If you assume bullet and I are both Stars, which we are, then the bad guys had no incentive to vote either way.

Fair point by you and hoops, if I had been taking my time when I posted I might have realized that.

The next off the top of my head question then becomes: Cronin, doesn't that mean that until it is made clear that you are good doesn't this cloud any theories anybody puts forward? I'd really prefer not to vote for you because I'm leaning that you're good -- but if this question is going to need to be proven at some point why not settle it now?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I give up. Lynch me. None of you know how to play this game.

Its like the reverse Schmidty strategy!

-Anxiety