FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[Bobble]

The Lions blitzed like crazy. I was as surprised as Russell Wilson. Good game out of Iffy. Good game by the O-line AND D-line. I was as surprised as anyone.

There are not enough footballs to go around. More Monty. More Gibbs. More Jamo. More Sun God. More LaPorta.

Great rebound game but I'm tempering my enthusiasm by reminding myself that the Broncos were riding an unsustainable turnover margin and probably weren't really a better-than-.500 team.

Vikes lost AND the refs insanely screwed the other team! What a day!

[thesloppy]

Yeah crucial week for the Lions, w the Vikings loss as well. I was not confident going into the game, figuring how soft the defense had looked, and I was ready to watch them struggle to pick up that 10th win over the last 4 games of the season, so it's nice to see them wrap that up immediately.


They just need to beat these Vikings once, and by all rights they should. While half the league is rolling with backups at QB or crucial positions, the Lions have struggled a bit with injuries at OL but are otherwise looking relatively healthy.

[GrantDawg]

Congrats Lions on winning the division!

[thesloppy]

First time ever winning the NFC North (last time they won the division it was the NFC Central)

[Honolulu_Blue]

Yes!!! We did it!! I was only 19 the last time this happened. I was a freshman in college and now I’m almost 50 years old. Madness!

[GrantDawg]

Here's for you winning a couple of playoff games.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Yes!!! We did it!! I was only 19 the last time this happened. I was a freshman in college and now I’m almost 50 years old. Madness!

Congrats HB! Similarly, I was 22 when they last won the division. I don't remember a thing about it.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Congrats HB! Similarly, I was 22 when they last won the division. I don't remember a thing about it.

Congrats to you too, sloppy! I don’t remember too much about it either, other than Sterling Shapre running wide, wide open at the end of that last home playoff game.

[bronconick]

8th grade, and that damn Favre OT td.

[Bobble]

It was uncomfortable, but it was a win. Vikings players dropping like flies. Mullens throwing it out there for whoever wanted to catch it on either team. Some strange Lions playcalls but the Lions seemed to have turned some karmic corner. Ref calls went our way or at least didn't all go against us, injuries happened to the other team, and we were able to actually overcome some amazing catches by the opponent. Feels strange...

[Bobble]

Near as we can piece together, here's what happened on the first 2-point play. Decker reports as eligible BUT the ref sees Skipper trotting on the field toward him. Skipper has been reporting eligible often this game so the ref somehow gets confused. As the play is lined up, Skipper is at guard and could not be eligible in any way no matter if he reported or not. Neither is Sewell eligible. He's covered by a receiver. Decker is the only tackle that would be eligible.

The good news is that the Lions will get another suitable-for-framing apology from the league and likely, a rule change will go in effect in the off-season so that teams the league cares about won't be subject to this kind of screwage.

Now, what say you all about still going for two after that play and then again after that play?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Bobble

Now, what say you all about still going for two after that play and then again after that play?

I don't think there's any way they had 3 good plays ready for that situation. After the first fails you kick. After the 2nd fails and is intercepted you absolutely kick. Those last 2 attempts weren't even close. You had the pick and a play that wouldn't have scored if completed.

Hell, Les Miles would have probably kicked after the first attempt failed.

[cartman]

What I don't get is why if Skipper was just coming into the game as a regular lineman, why was he even going towards the ref? He made a beeline to the ref when he came off the bench.

[RainMaker]

I think they were trying to confuse the Cowboys as to who was eligible and accidentally confused the refs.

[thesloppy]

Campbell says he explicitly told the refs about that exact play & the misdirection with Skipper pregame

[thesloppy]

Watching the football shows it looks the refs fucked up another call in the lions favor right before fucking up that call in the cowboys favor, calling tripping on the wrong team.


Good job guys.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Watching the football shows it looks the refs fucked up another call in the lions favor right before fucking up that call in the cowboys favor, calling tripping on the wrong team.


Good job guys.

Here it is. This is as much trying to make that miss call a trade off, but also "proof" the refs didn't rig the game.

Here is video of that initial first-down play, reviewed by ESPN, showing that Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson -- not Cowboys TE Hendershot -- should have been the one flagged for attempting to trip Tony Pollard. Instead, Dallas penalized. pic.twitter.com/fkCuF3ChW6

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 31, 2023

[Honolulu_Blue]

They didn’t rig the game for the Cowboys, they’re just pretty incompetent and totally fucked up on that 2 point conversation. I’ve always hated that head official. He sucks.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Campbell says he explicitly told the refs about that exact play & the misdirection with Skipper pregame

This is the thing that makes me the most angry. I can't believe that it didn't result in "Oh, yeah, they told me about this" and pick up the flag after the play.

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't think there's any way they had 3 good plays ready for that situation. After the first fails you kick. After the 2nd fails and is intercepted you absolutely kick. Those last 2 attempts weren't even close. You had the pick and a play that wouldn't have scored if completed.

Agreed. You don't have 3 ready and you haven't shown the ability to consistently execute anyway.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The refs blew that call. That’s pretty much a given.

That being said, Campbell should have kicked the field goal in the first half and definitely should have kicked the extra point to tie the game. Campbell’s aggressiveness is a double-edge sword.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Campbell’s aggressiveness is a double-edge sword.

Agreed. Campbell's aggressiveness seems like it could be the crucial factor to swing something like 4 games a season one way or the other. When youve got a below average team that you think might only win 6-8 games that kind of aggressiveness makes sense, since you're not necessarily expecting to make the playoffs anyway. Once you turn the corner to actually being a good team then that aggressive behavior will potentially play you right out of the playoff hunt while only promising slightly better seeding with success

[Carman Bulldog]

The thing is, that final conversion try is good if Goff makes the throw. So it's hard to fault Campbell for going for it.

And yes, Brad Allen's crew is awful. Same group of officials that bungled about four consecutive plays at the end of that Chiefs-Packers Sunday night game.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The goals for this season were always: Win the division, host a home playoff game, and win a playoff game.

We knocked out two of three. The third one is looking... dicey.

All of the juicy narratives that come with this Rams/Lions game, aside, for pure football reasons, this is looking like a very tough game for the Lions.

1. The Rams have been red hot. They have won seven of eight and their only loss was to the Ravens (THE hottest team in the NFL) on the road in overtime.

2. The Rams have an excellent quarterback and two all-pro receivers in Kupp and Nacua. Over the last three games, the Lions have given up 807 passing yards to Nick Mullens, 345 passing yards to Dak Prescott, 333 receiving yards to Justin Jefferson and 227 receiving yards to Cee Dee Lamb. Those are some horrific numbers. Stafford and the Rams passing game can shred this defense.

3. Sam LaPorta is likely not playing. If he some how is playing, I have to imagine he'll be limited. After Goff and St. Brown, LaPorta is the next most important piece in the passing game. Goff trusts and relies on him. He's, also, a great blocker and key component to the running game. Losing him is like losing the 49ers losing Kittle or Chiefs losing Kelcie. It's a huge blow, especially in a game where 4th down conversions are likely to be key. I am not sure if the Lions can keep pace with the Rams without LaPorta. Other than St. Brown, the receiving options are Josh Reynolds and a still very unproven Jameson Williams, as Kalif Raymond is, also, injured.

4. Playoff experience. Other than a handful of guys, the Lions don't have any playoff experience. The Rams have largely turned their roster over since they won the Super Bowl, but still have some really key guys who have won it all.

What do the Lions have going for them? Ford Field will be out of control loud. Their offensive line looks to be healthy and that's been a huge boon for the Lions whenever that entire unit has played. Other than that...

I am not at all confident going into Sunday. I desperately want them to win and experience something I haven't since I was 17 years old. I mean, the last time the Lions won a playoff game I had my drivers license for less than a year and now I am executive (and have been for 10 years) at company that makes cars . It's more than time!

[QuikSand]

good summary, H_B ... rooting for a win, wary of the prospects

[Bobble]

I'm calling that Mission Accomplished and probably Mission Overachieved. Won the division plus hosted and won a playoff game. We host another and "any given Sunday" but very happy with this year's result as is.

I can't decide if we were lucky with injuries or unlucky (I mean, compared to average NFL injuries). We lose Houston, Moseley and a lot of CJGJ. That's all at positions where we were weak to begin with. But, we didn't lose anyone else I can think of for any real length of time. O-line pretty well intact. No QB injuries. Nothing too devastating.

Kudos to Aaron Glenn for scheming/developing a pretty good defense despite few big-name players. Also-rans on the other side of Hutch. Just-a-guys on the other side of Sutton who seemed to deteriorate as the season went on. Some good, young pieces but not a complete defense at all.

[QuikSand]

Fun little tidbit my friends and I chatted about last night... what's the number of active NFL quarterbacks who have won playoff games for two franchises?

(pause)

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It's two, I'm pretty sure, and they both only got there in the last 36 hours. Goff and Mayfield.

[QuikSand]

Fully agreed that the season is a success, and the overall trajectory is a very good one.

And to be honest, RB Gibbs is as advertised, good enough to press the issue whether there's ever value in using a pick that early at the RB position. Lions seem to be a nice case study for "a roster that sorta lacks explosive weapons adds a 'weapon' style RB right as they are into their short-term window" and it's not a bad case at all.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Totally agree with all of the above. Given how the Lions had finished the prior season and the flux in the division (primarily with Rodgers leaving), there were three goals at the start of this season:

1. Win the NFC North for the first time. Check!
2. Host a playoff game for the first time in 30 years. Check!
3. Win a playoff game for the first time in 32 years. Check!

So, yes, mission accomplished! The rest is just gravy.

Now, the Lions should beat the Buccs at home. They are favored by 6.5 points. The potential areas of concern are:

1. The Lions still really can't cover anyone. Puca Nakua had 181 yards receiving (Cupp didn't look like himself). The Buccaneers like to throw it and have two great weapons in Godwin and Evans.

2. The Buccaneers defense created a ton of pressure against Phily. The Eagles are a complete mess of a team, but they allegedly have the best offensive line in football and the Tampa pass rush was smoking them. Goff is pretty much the worst QB in the league when pressured. The Lions only managed 85 yards and 3 points in the second half against the Rams. The reason was largely due to the fact that the Rams were able to generate pressure in the second half and, as a result, the Lions offense completely stalled out.

On the flipside, Dan Campbell really knows how to get his team ready for a game. Ford Field will be insane. I think the Lions are the more talented team.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Fully agreed that the season is a success, and the overall trajectory is a very good one.

And to be honest, RB Gibbs is as advertised, good enough to press the issue whether there's ever value in using a pick that early at the RB position. Lions seem to be a nice case study for "a roster that sorta lacks explosive weapons adds a 'weapon' style RB right as they are into their short-term window" and it's not a bad case at all.

I very much agree. Based on a quick glance at the stats the Lions had the more passing and running plays over 20+ yards combined (15 runs + 70 passes) than any other team this year. This was not considered an explosive offense coming into the year. They were good and effective, but not explosive.

[albionmoonlight]

Versions of Madden between Lions playoff wins

[GrantDawg]

Yet the 91 Madden probably still played better and had features that actually worked.

[AlexB]

I’d forgotten the ambo skittling through the players to get to the injured guy! Different times…

[albionmoonlight]

I was playing it at my cousins once. And it turns out that if you have a penalty and an injured player on the same play, the game does the penalty animation first.

So the player is in the background writhing in pain while the ref makes the holding call before he lets the ambulance come through.

[Carman Bulldog]

How would people have felt about the season if it ended with a loss at home in the NFC Championship game against the Packers?

While I was watching the 49ers-Packers game, it seemed as if the Lions were poised for a potential third home playoff game. Then I started thinking there might not be a worse outcome to the season then losing to at home to the Packers in the playoffs with a shot at the Super Bowl on the line.

[albionmoonlight]

I was as critical as anyone of taking Gibbs over a “value” position in the first round. I think I have finally realized my folly. Sometimes, you just just draft the player you know is going to be a star for you.

[GrantDawg]

Looks like the Lions are playing in the Championship game, guys. Good work, think tank.

[Ksyrup]

DELETE DELETE DELETE, GD

[Bobble]

CB our #1 priority this offseason confirmed.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

DELETE DELETE DELETE, GD

Nah, I'm good. I only jinx the teams I support.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Looks like the Lions are playing in the Championship game, guys. Good work, think tank.

Woot!! We did it!

[CrimsonFox]

Go lions go

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

DELETE DELETE DELETE, GD

Lolol

This made my day

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

While I was watching the 49ers-Packers game, it seemed as if the Lions were poised for a potential third home playoff game. Then I started thinking there might not be a worse outcome to the season then losing to at home to the Packers in the playoffs with a shot at the Super Bowl on the line.

I'd take it over going 5-12 and not making the playoffs, or losing in the first round of the playoffs, or any other such thing.

The Detroit Lions just tripled their playoff win total from the rest of the Super Bowl Era within two weeks. There's nothing that could happen in the championship game that would make that not be a wildly successful season.

[CrimsonFox]

How was that game even that close. Totsl failure I'd say

[CrimsonFox]

Jeff Daniels an d Bob Seger

[Ksyrup]

Geez. I feel like a(n old) number.

[Honolulu_Blue]

This is a weird place to be as a Lions fan. It's really uncharted waters. I remember watching them get blown out by Washington in the last NFC Championship game in 1992, but I don't recall my mindset at the time. I was only 17 and the internet didn't exist. On one hand, it feels like the Lions are playing with house money. They have exceeded all the goals we had for them starting the season and, even if they lose on Sunday, the season will be considered a success. On the other hand, they are only 60 minutes way from a Super Bowl, who knows how long it will be until they ever get this close again, and just being content with "we did well!" seems to be a bit of a loser's mentality. So, if the Lions lose on Sunday, I'll likely be upset for a bit, but still have a lot of hope for the future of the franchise. They seem to have the right folks in Holmes and Campbell in charge and have a great, strong nucleus of young players.

As for the game itself...

1. The Lions still can't really cover anyone. Justin Jefferson, Cee Dee Lamb, Puka Nacua and Mike Evans have all gone off on them, big time, over the last five games. Those are all really good players, but they were largely unstoppable save for a few drops by Evans and a no-call PI on Nacua. I could see Brandon Aiyuk having a monster game. Same with Deebo, if his healthy. (More on this).

2. The Lions have been really good against the run all year, though Rachaad White had a decent day against them. He either had decent runs or got stuffed for nothing. There was little middle ground. McCaffery is unlikely to be getting stuffed and could gash the Lions.

3. Goff largely lives throwing over the middle. It's where St. Brown and LaPorta thrive. While I am not too familiar with the 49ers safeties, their linebackers are excellent and could limit these opportunities.

4. No roof. Jared Goff is a very different quarterback when he plays under a roof than when he plays out of doors. The numbers are pretty stark. While I assume the weather will likely be moderate-to-fine in San Fran (or wherever the stadium is located) that weather won't be a huge issue, but it doesn't seem to take much. If Goff were Captain America, a roof would be his shield. He's okay without the shield, but much, much better with it.

5. The 49ers are just a better, deeper, more talented team. The Lions haven't won in San Francisco since 1975.

How can the Lions win? The 49ers aren't great against the run and especially on runs on the edge. If the Lions can get Sewell pulling and sealing the edge and Gibbs out in space, they could feed on that. The Lions haven't run the ball exceptionally well this offseason, but if they can do that against the 49ers, that could take pressure off of Goff and the passing game.

If the Lions can get pressure on Purdy and rattle him and get him off his game, they may have a shot.

If Deebo Samuel doesn't play. Outside of McCaffery, Deebo is likely the most important player on their offense. He totally changes the game. If he can't go, that's a huge boost.

The last time the Lions on a road playoff game was in 1957... In San Francisco.

The Lions have slayed so many demons already this year, can the slay one more?

[NobodyHere]

Ride the Goffense Detroit. Ride the Goffense.

[QuikSand]

I feel like the 49ers linebackers, especially Warner, makes this a peculiarly bad matchup for the Lions. A lot of Ben Johnson's genius revolves around putting NFL linebackers to difficult tests, where many of them fail often enough that the play yields a coverage mismatch or some similar misalignment. It's a deep vein, right now linebacker (and sometimes safety) decision-making the weakest element of modern defense.

Fred Warner might be the most sound LB in the game at this exact skill, though. And the 49ers unit overall is above average. So Ben will need some especially tricky tricks to gain the advantage that he can get against most teams. He's wily, but it's just a tougher proposition against the 49ers, by a lot.

I'm delighted with the season overall, and a valiant loss this week would diminish that feeling hardly at all. Taking your team, likely without Ben Johnson by the way, and framing your next step around a specific opponent, can be a healthy motivator. In the ways that AFC teams have been building to play the Chiefs in recent years, Detroit should be eyeing the 49ers the same way, especially with the free QB contract for another year or two.

[JPhillips]

The Lions are the Bengals from two years ago except instead of a porous o-line they have a porous secondary.

Out of the four that are left the Lions are the obvious good guys.