Werewolf VIII - A Transylvania Twist

[Poli]

Well, that's to be expected. Here's to you, kwhit.

[Eaglesfan27]

We aren't getting very unlucky with our descendants both failing to take out a vampire with them.

Good job KWhit. Hopefully, BrianD was a master.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Okay, time to come clean. I fear I may be a target of the vampires tonight, since I've been kind of vocal - especially against Fouts yesterday.

I have seen a thing or two of some importance, since I am a Descendent of Belmont.

Night 1: Viewed Ardent Enthusiast - Villager
Night 2: Viewed jeff061 - Villager
Night 3: Viewed blade6119 - My viewing was interrupted. He was attacked (and turned into a vampire, I presume).
Night 4: Viewed BrianD - Vampire. I assume he's the master, but I can't be sure.

I hope we get enough people in here to vote to take him down.

Ok, assuming that vampires can't pretend to be a descendant and kill themself (which would be a major mind f%#@ if they could) we have to assume that both defendants gave us valuable information.

We need to kill the master ASAP, not just any old vampire. From this post, we know that AE, Jeff, and Blade are not the master. Therefore, as much as part of me wants to vote for Blade (mainly for being called a prick) I don't think we should do so. We can't afford to give any more free turns to the vampires. Anyway, these three are on the safe list. Now, to hunt down Mr. S's post to see who should be added (as my memory is failing me.)

[Eaglesfan27]

Ok, reviewing Mr. S's vote, he clears ntndeacon from master vampire status, so the rest of us are fair game.

[KWhit]

Death becomes me, I think.

Good luck you guys!

[Airhog]

Just so everyone left is clear; The game will end immediatly once all the "Old" Vampires have been killed. This isnt like the werewolf game with the flood.

[Eaglesfan27]

This is just a quick post to help clarify my list on this page. I hope we can agree on the logic of going after the master vampire and take a look at all 5 candidates (I'd expect you all to analyze me as well as the other 4.)


People on the possible vote list:

Eaglesfan27 - I know I'm not a vampire, but I also know that none of you necessarily have reason to take me at my word.

Illinifan - Could be a master vampire.

Schmidty - Could be a master vampire.

SirFozzie - Could be a master vampire.

Kevin - could be a master vampire.

Cleared (from being a master vampire)
Blade
jeff
Ardent Enthusiast
Ntndeacon


Edited to fix a brain fart. Kevin had not been cleared by KWhit. AE had been cleared.

[KevinNU7]

Nice analysis Eaglesfan. I'm going to have to to take a long look at the voting patterns of the ones not off the hook.

Airhog,

I was not worried about the game continueing because I;d imagine that when we kill the last master we will see a bunch of people instantly dieing (the converted)

[SirFozzie]

Agreed:

Eaglesfan27 - I don't think he is... just from the various clues I picked up

Illinifan - ugh.. could be a vampire, don't think he is the Master. Calls WAY too much attention to himself.

Schmidty - Don't believe he is.. He seems pretty firmly grounded with the redshirts

SirFozzie - Nope, not a Vampire, Master or otherwise. Like EF, I know you don't have reason to take me at my word..

Kevin - Kevin seems to have flown under the radar pretty well at this point, which a Master would need to do, especially since we've gotten so many of em at this point.

[KevinNU7]

SirFozzie, I can assure you that I am not a vampire. Look at my voting patterns, I went with Blade, then stuck with him for 3 rounds. Then I switched to Fouts very early on. This turn I jumoped back and forth between two vampires (blade & BrianD).

I'm suspecting Illinifan. His "master list" consisted of two people who look like they aren;'t vampires

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm going to read through the entire thread after I wake up tomorrow and review the other 4 (I'm not going to bother with myself) possible candidates and really try to analyze each of their posts and votes. I'll post some condensed thoughts tomorrow afternoon after I've done that.

[KWhit]

Just wanted to say thanks to Airhog for running a fun game. I've never been a seer before, and let me tell you, there is nothing worse than coming out and laying it all on the line and have some people not believe you. I wanted to strangle my computer at one point today. That's the nature of the game, I know, and I'm not criticising anyone, but damn! That was frustrating as hell!

[Poli]

Thanks for investigating me right away. I told you I wasn't a vampire. My randomness was honest.

[KevinNU7]

I'd just like to say that I am going to suspect anyone who has been given a free pass from the Descendents as being a converted vampire. While I will value your opinions I will keep in mind you may be playing the other side.

If the Duke is in the group of suspects (non viewed players) I would ask that you use your powers this turn so we can get it out in the open. I theory you could say "I will not allow the voting of Person X" Then you could turn around and say, "I chose Person X instead!" This would atleast reveal you as the Duke

[KevinNU7]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Voting:

Day 1:

Lathum (5) Blade6119, Dubb93, Eaglesfan27, Illinifan999, Schmidty
Blade6119 (4) Brian D, Jeffo61, KevinNu7, Lathum
Sirfozzie (2) Ardent Ehthusiast, Kwhit
BrianD (1) Fouts
Fouts (1) NtnDeacon
Mrsimperless (1) Sirfozzie
Ardent Enthusiast (1) Mrsimperless


Day 2:

Dubb93 (4) Ardent Enthusiast, blad6119, BrianD, Kwhit
Blade6119 (3) dub93, jeff061, KevinNu7
Fouts (2) Mrsimperless, Schmidty
Ardent Enthusiast (2) EaglesFan27, Sirfozzie
ntndeacon (1) illinifan999
Sirfozzie (1) ntndeacon


Day 3:

Fouts(9) Eaglesfan27, Sirfozzie, Jeff061, KevinNu7, Ardent enthusiast, Kwhit, Mrsimperless, illinifan999, ntndeacon
Blade6119(2) Schmidty, Fouts
Ardent Enthusiast (1) BrianD

In Order of Votes
Day 4
Blade - Jeff, Schmity, Kevin
BrianD - KWhit, Blade, eaglesfan, illinifan, ntndeacon, SirFozzie, AE

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by KevinNU7

I'd just like to say that I am going to suspect anyone who has been given a free pass from the Descendents as being a converted vampire. While I will value your opinions I will keep in mind you may be playing the other side.

If the Duke is in the group of suspects (non viewed players) I would ask that you use your powers this turn so we can get it out in the open. I theory you could say "I will not allow the voting of Person X" Then you could turn around and say, "I chose Person X instead!" This would atleast reveal you as the Duke

Yes, yes. Reveal your rolesssss!!

[SirFozzie]

I wish I knew who was a master and who was a convert.. because I think the voting shows that the Vamps had to bandwagon at least once due to the villagers split voting strategy. Now if we can just figure out where to go from here.

[illinifan999]

I really honestly believe it's Kevin. I know I'm not, figured I would actually get some pm's from thsi game but noooooo only get the first from airhog saying I'm nothing special. Thx for that. I can't prove it's Kevin but I kinda suspected him from the beginning just because something didn't feel right. There I think I added my first usefull post to this game.

[SirFozzie]

Assuming there was 2 master vamps to start, there can only be 1 left (Because with the conversions and kills, they have to be down to 2, because we know that since they've taken both Decendants out of the game, so they could only get two more (assuming of course that they don't get to nosh on Night 0/1). However, that's it. We're getting no more help from the Decendants. It's up to the redshirts now.

We know there's two vampires left then. Blade6119 and ???

The Dead:
BrianD Lynched Day 4 (Vampire)
dubb93 Lynched Day 2 (Doctor)
Fouts Lynched Day 3 (Vampire)
Kwhit Killed Night 5 (descendent)
Lathum Lynched Day 1 (Villager)
Mrsimperless Killed Night 4 (Descendent)

The Fang-y:
blade6119 - Almost definitely a Vampire (One of the Decendants caught him being attacked)

The Cleared as of Right Now
ardent enthuisiast - Proven NOT to be a Master - Therefore is NOT a vampire TONIGHT
jeff061- Proven not to be a Master - Therefore NOT a vampire tonight
ntndeacon- Proven not to be a Master - Therefore NOT a vampire tonight

The Unknown- The Master MUST be in this group.

EaglesFan27 - Uncleared
illinifan999- Uncleared
KevinNu7 - Uncleared
Schmidty- Uncleared (edit: Achmidty? Since when did I think Schmidty was arabic? )
Sirfozzie- Uncleared

[SirFozzie]

The final question:

Do we spend a turn making sure Blade doesn't help the vampiric cause? Remember.. Each turn we miss in that five-some is a turn where the vamps get to chomp someone else on their vote. Assuming that they will vote for the same people (I doubt it because it will likely point us right to the Master), today they will have 2 votes. Tommorrow they will have 3. The next day.. they win.

we can only afford to miss twice.. UNLESS we take a turn to stake Blade. Then even with the bite, they only have two votes, and we'd be down to seven.

[KevinNU7]

If we kill Blade now we are left with the same number of vampires tomorrow (they'll covnert again) but with one less villager. Seems like a bad stragedy to me

[KevinNU7]

Ok I'm heading out for the day. I should be back online before 8. If not I'd request that we don't have a vote today since I am one of the questioned 5.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by KevinNU7

If we kill Blade now we are left with the same number of vampires tomorrow (they'll covnert again) but with one less villager. Seems like a bad stragedy to me

That sounds like something a vampire would want us to do.

Vote Kevin

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by KevinNU7

Ok I'm heading out for the day. I should be back online before 8. If not I'd request that we don't have a vote today since I am one of the questioned 5.

I also don't think we should have to stop the gane because one person can't be around. I missed a day in the X-Com one, and no one stopped the game for me, nor should they have.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by KevinNU7

If we kill Blade now we are left with the same number of vampires tomorrow (they'll covnert again) but with one less villager. Seems like a bad stragedy to me

Actually, I don't think this is necessarily something a vampire would say (however, I'm still not sure about Kevin.) I think that we gain nothing by lynching Blade. If we lynch him, we kill a vampire, but that night they would be able add one to their numbers and take one of us. Therefore, that would be a zero sum game and would not have any chance of ending the game as we are certain that Blade isn't the master vampire.

Just my thoughts.

[illinifan999]

I'm not the Duke, not a vampire, not a descendent, just a boring ole villager so there's my role. I really think there's something not right about Kevin, just a gut feeling no real proof so I'll hold off my vote until we get some more discussion in.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Actually, I don't think this is necessarily something a vampire would say (however, I'm still not sure about Kevin.) I think that we gain nothing by lynching Blade. If we lynch him, we kill a vampire, but that night they would be able add one to their numbers and take one of us. Therefore, that would be a zero sum game and would not have any chance of ending the game as we are certain that Blade isn't the master vampire.

Just my thoughts.

I guess you're right. We have a 1 in 5 chance of picking the bad guy today.. however if we fail, we will be down to 8, and the vampires will have 3 votes tommorrow. Basically, if the 5 good guys are split, the vampires will likely will be able to go against who they want.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I guess you're right. We have a 1 in 5 chance of picking the bad guy today.. however if we fail, we will be down to 8, and the vampires will have 3 votes tommorrow. Basically, if the 5 good guys are split, the vampires will likely will be able to go against who they want.

Not if the Duke is still alive which hopefully he is.

I think we have 2 chances to get this right with a 20% chance tonight and 25% chance tomorrow night. Hopefully, we can use some good analysis and logic to raise those odds beyond mere chance.

I'm going to start reading through this thread repeatedly, focusing on one of the four candidates that isn't me and posting a synopsis of my thoughts. I'm hopeful we'll all do this and come to some good consensus.

[SirFozzie]

Agreed. We saw in the X-Com game how a Duke role could be great.

The best bet for the village would be for the Duke to be in the five uncleared. He knows he's good because he's the Duke, that leaves four others. If they go for him, he can force it off to another uncleared, so we'd have a 1 in 3 (or 1 in 2 the final day).

If it's one of the four Cleared ones.. well, we're back to 1 in 5 and 1 in 4.

[Eaglesfan27]

General thoughts:

Master Vampires: Fouts, BrianD??? Fouts voted for BrianD on the first day. would he vote for another master vampire? I don't think BrianD was a master vampire. I think that Kwhit thought he might be, but admitted he wasn't positive. I don't think a master vampire would welcome release. That is what happened when BrianD died. I think he was a convert and the welcome release was our clue.

Doctor: Dubb

Descendants: Mr. S, Kwhit.


Candidate specific thoughts:

I'm doing my analysis in alphabetical order:

First up is Illinifan.

He voted for Lathum the first day. Not surprising with Lathum's tasty comment.


He delayed voting on Day 2, then voted for ntndeacon, a confirmed good guy.


On day 3, he said he thought Mr. S was a vampire even after some hints were out there that he was a descendant.

Threw a lot of confusing thoughts out there after Mr.S declared himself clearly. Was he just thinking aloud, or was he trying to protect a fellow master vampire?


Made a statement that voting for either fouts or Mr.s was a master vampire, then went and voted for ntndeacon!


He changed to Fouts ONLY after it was absolutely clear that Fouts was going to die! He also posted a great deal of "jokes" trying to cast doubt everywhere. Was this a last minute attempt to save his fellow vampire's life?


Tries to claim he threw the stake and asks did we win? Suspicious questions.

Has repeatedly asked the Duke to out himself. Why?

After KWhit revealed his vision, he voted for BrianD with no discussion, no posts trying to cast suspicion everywhere else. Was this because he knew BrianD was just a convert?


2nd to last post casts suspicion on Kevin and states that he has added his "first usefull" post to the game.

Last post is to say he is a villager and again cast suspicion on Kevin. It is just a feeling he has.



Illinifan was just first alphabetically, but my Index of suspicion for him is HIGH right now.

[jeff061]

Illini was high on my as well. I thought he was just being far too careless to be a master, but that's certainly no proof either way.

[illinifan999]

I'm just being my random self, but I'm just a villager didn't even get to be converted. Just saying if we know who the Duke is we wouldn't have to waste any votes....

[Eaglesfan27]

General thoughts:

Master Vampires: Fouts, BrianD??? Fouts voted for BrianD on the first day. would he vote for another master vampire? I don't think BrianD was a master vampire. I think that Kwhit thought he might be, but admitted he wasn't positive. I don't think a master vampire would welcome release. That is what happened when BrianD died. I think he was a convert and the welcome release was our clue.

Doctor: Dubb

Descendants: Mr. S, Kwhit.

(I'm keeping this general data in each post to help remind myself as I work in Notepad.)

Candidate specific thoughts:

Next up is KevinD


On his first day, he voted for Blade (who we know was a villager at that time.)

He was quiet the first day but voted for Blade because Blade wasn't posting much.



On the second day, he voted for Blade early in the day to get "cause discussion."

Towards the end of day 2, he mentions that he is growing suspicous of Fouts!


Despite his suspicion about Fouts, votes for Blade on day 3.

Switched to Fouts reasonably quickly after Mr.S' announcement of his visions.

No further comments. No attempts at confusing things.


Shows some paranoia about Mr. S getting turned later that night.


On the fourth day, he voted for Blade early.

He shortly thereafter becomes the first to mention the use of "they" in the description of the Descendents and mentions that there might be two.


Doesn't switch immediately after Kwhit announces BrianD as a vampire. Sticks with Blade (who Kwhit says is a convert vampire, presumably.)

Has some decent logic about why he should stick with Blade and how he will vote for BrianD next round. He reasons that BrianD could have been an earlier convert (which I think he was. See above comment why.)


Agrees to switch to BrianD, but also makes it clear that we need to go after Blade at the next round.


Brings up a fear about us being overrun soon, and switches back to Blade.


Today, he realizes that voting for Blade is a bad strategy as we will be giving the vampires "a free turn."



My index of suspicion is low to moderate (this is a game of vampire after all, and paranoia is going to be present.)

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

Just saying if we know who the Duke is we wouldn't have to waste any votes....

I'm not sure I understand this. Please explain how knowing who the duke is will prevent us from wasting votes?

All I see that would happen if the Duke was revealed is that the vampires would convert him (assuming they haven't already.)

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I'm not sure I understand this. Please explain how knowing who the duke is will prevent us from wasting votes?

All I see that would happen if the Duke was revealed is that the vampires would convert him (assuming they haven't already.)

The only thing I can assume is that if the Duke is one of the non-cleared five, then we can eliminate that person from discussion.

[SirFozzie]

BTW, it's a bad idea UNLESS the Duke is part of the uncleared five. If the Duke is one of the "Cleared Four" then revealing the Duke ACTIVELY hurts our cause.

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I'm not sure I understand this. Please explain how knowing who the duke is will prevent us from wasting votes?

All I see that would happen if the Duke was revealed is that the vampires would convert him (assuming they haven't already.)

If he's one of the uncleared five then we know not to vote for him because he can just deflect it to someone else.

[Poli]

I would hate to see your analysis of me. I've been all over the place.

[Eaglesfan27]

Ok, I see the point now. Others have sacrificed themselves, and so will I. I am the Duke.

[Eaglesfan27]

Dola - Hopefully, we'll get the right guy tonight and I actually won't be sacrificing myself

General thoughts:

Master Vampires: Fouts, BrianD??? Fouts voted for BrianD on the first day. would he vote for another master vampire? I don't think BrianD was a master vampire. I think that Kwhit thought he might be, but admitted he wasn't positive. I don't think a master vampire would welcome release. That is what happened when BrianD died. I think he was a convert and the welcome release was our clue.

Doctor: Dubb

Descendants: Mr. S, Kwhit.

(I'm keeping this general data in each post to help remind myself as I work in Notepad.)

Candidate specific thoughts:

Next up is Schmidty.

First comment before the game is even started or casted is that he is going "to play it gung-ho."

Delays voting on the first day, but eventually votes for Lathum. Not that surprising with the tasty comment and dubb's reasoning.

Votes for Blade on day 2 without much comment. However, he seems to be going with the front runners in votes.

Fouts voted for Schmidty on day 2. Would he vote for a master vampire? Might not be a bad idea if he knew Schmidty wouldn't be lynched.
Schmidty switches to Fouts shortly thereafter.

Talks quite a bit about how he is a villager and wants to be a werewolf or vampire or someone with special powers.
Fouts unvotes Schmidty later in the day.

Of note, only Mr.S and Schmidty voted for Fouts on day 2. However, if the voting was closer, would Schmidty have changed?

On the third day, he votes Blade along with the rest of us.
Stuck with Blade, but said he did it because we already had enough votes for Fouts and it didn't matter. That was true.

On day 4, he distrusts KWhit and votes for Blade anyway.
Later talks about his bad feeling that KWhit is leading us astray.

He becomes WAY too defensive when he thinks a comment I made about "things that a vampire would say" to BrianD was directed at him!

Is chatty in trying in voicing his doubts about KWhit. Is this nervousness, or a purposeful attempt to redirect us?

My index of suspicion for him is Moderate right now mainly because of his frequent statements that he is just a villager and how he feels he is getting killed too early, and how he is annoyed that he never gets to be a vampire/werewolf.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Dola - Hopefully, we'll get the right guy tonight and I actually won't be sacrificing myself

General thoughts:

Master Vampires: Fouts, BrianD??? Fouts voted for BrianD on the first day. would he vote for another master vampire? I don't think BrianD was a master vampire. I think that Kwhit thought he might be, but admitted he wasn't positive. I don't think a master vampire would welcome release. That is what happened when BrianD died. I think he was a convert and the welcome release was our clue.

Doctor: Dubb

Descendants: Mr. S, Kwhit.

(I'm keeping this general data in each post to help remind myself as I work in Notepad.)

Candidate specific thoughts:

Next up is Schmidty.

First comment before the game is even started or casted is that he is going "to play it gung-ho."

Delays voting on the first day, but eventually votes for Lathum. Not that surprising with the tasty comment and dubb's reasoning.

Votes for Blade on day 2 without much comment. However, he seems to be going with the front runners in votes.

Fouts voted for Schmidty on day 2. Would he vote for a master vampire? Might not be a bad idea if he knew Schmidty wouldn't be lynched.
Schmidty switches to Fouts shortly thereafter.

Talks quite a bit about how he is a villager and wants to be a werewolf or vampire or someone with special powers.
Fouts unvotes Schmidty later in the day.

Of note, only Mr.S and Schmidty voted for Fouts on day 2. However, if the voting was closer, would Schmidty have changed?

On the third day, he votes Blade along with the rest of us.
Stuck with Blade, but said he did it because we already had enough votes for Fouts and it didn't matter. That was true.

On day 4, he distrusts KWhit and votes for Blade anyway.
Later talks about his bad feeling that KWhit is leading us astray.

He becomes WAY too defensive when he thinks a comment I made about "things that a vampire would say" to BrianD was directed at him!

Is chatty in trying in voicing his doubts about KWhit. Is this nervousness, or a purposeful attempt to redirect us?

My index of suspicion for him is Moderate right now mainly because of his frequent statements that he is just a villager and how he feels he is getting killed too early, and how he is annoyed that he never gets to be a vampire/werewolf.

I'm a villager. Don't know what else to say. I play the game in a nervous way, as opposed to an anal-analytical (say that 3 times) way. That's way I've always played this game, and it's the way I always will.

Off me tonight and we lose. The fact that I KNOW I'm a villager, and we all KNOW that Blade is a vamp, yet you're pointing toward me. That really makes me wonder if you're a convert as well, or maybe even a master.

Regardless, if I'm destined to be lynched tonight, that's the way it is. You'll look like a fool tomorrow. That is, if the game is still going by then.

[Eaglesfan27]

Actually, you are much lower on my list than Illinifan. I'm just analyzing everyone. My analysis certainly could be flawed. I'd love to see other people's analysis.

I generally go with my intuition and guts in the first two days, but after you have data, you have to analyze it if you want to win.

[Schmidty]

Then again, maybe you won't look like a fool. Maybe I just suck at playing this game.

[Eaglesfan27]

General thoughts:

Master Vampires: Fouts, BrianD??? Fouts voted for BrianD on the first day. would he vote for another master vampire? I don't think BrianD was a master vampire. I think that Kwhit thought he might be, but admitted he wasn't positive. I don't think a master vampire would welcome release. That is what happened when BrianD died. I think he was a convert and the welcome release was our clue.

Doctor: Dubb

Descendants: Mr. S, Kwhit.

(I'm keeping this general data in each post to help remind myself as I work in Notepad.)

Candidate specific thoughts:


Last but not least is SirFozzie.


Has the vote random plan and votes for Mr. S on day 1.


Had a few comments, but nothing that raises my index of suspicion from day 1 to day 2.

Believes in his spreading votes plan, but votes for Ardent Enthusiast because of his use of a random number generator (I also voted for him for that reason.)


Seems very distraught after we lynch our doctor on day 2.

Is generally quiet from day 2 to 3.

Votes for Fouts after Mr. S makes his revelation on day 3.


Has a well reasoned post on why he doesn't think there are 2 descendants on day 4.


Reasonably quickly goes after BrianD on Day 4 after KWhit makes his revelation.


Is the first to mention that we must get the master ASAP rather than just finishing off Blade.


My index of suspicion for him is low to moderate.


Next, I'll post my order of suspicion.

[jeff061]

We also all KNOW that Blade is not the master and lynching him does no good. Two seerers are dead so stalling for time gives us nothing, we are going to have to make our move.

I think any non-vampire would come to this conclusion on their own..

[Eaglesfan27]

From high to low on my index of suspicion:


Illinifan (way above everyone else)



Schmidty (just barely above Kevin)
Kevin (just barely above SirFozzie)
SirFozzie

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Don't worry. I don't believe it will be fruitless. I just hope you are telling the truth (and I believe you are) so we don't have to kill you tomorrow.


I unvote Blade.

I vote BrianD

The above is post 441. It was in response to Kwhit wondering if it was pointless to have revealed himself since no one was voting for him.

This is the only clear hint I let that I am the Duke. I was prepared to use my power to get BrianD if the group didn't vote for him.

[illinifan999]

I guess all I can say is vote me and you lose another villager. One without any special skills.

[Eaglesfan27]

I might change my mind if I hear some convincing analysis from the rest of you, but otherwise:

I vote Illinifan999

[illinifan999]

*Sigh*