What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Brian Swartz]

Congress can investigate anything it wants. It's one of those things where the idea is checks and balances; if they abuse their power, they theoretically get thrown out. It's like how impeachment has a lot of teeth in theory, a moderate amount historically, and jack diddly squat now because almost nobody from the party of Insert Public Official Here will vote to impeach them no matter what they did.

When you have a situation where abuse of power is the point, where people were put in office specifically to abuse it, and if they don't abuse it they are spitting on the voters who put them there and ignoring the campaign promises they made to get elected, you have a situation where our form of government no longer functions.

I have some more hope after the mid-terms, which is to say it's more likely that we limp along for another decade or two instead of another couple years before we have a full-on constitutional crisis and the republic collapses. There'll be more time for corrections to be made, but that only matters if people want those corrections made.

[Flasch186]

I’m looking forward to members subpoenaing people that defy the subpoenas and then the members are reminded that they too failed to adhere to being subpoenaed. Rich


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[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Expect lots of setting up false equivalences: "They won't comply with our subpoena where we asked for all of their damning evidence about that pizza sex dungeon. So when Trump was not responding to their subpoenas - that was the same thing"

And lots of repeat-it-enough-to-elevate-it: "As the representative from the great state of Texas, I'm going to say 'Joe Biden is a pedophile' over and over for the next 5 minutes to try and get it in people's subconscious"

So, basically, turning the House committees into Fox News for a couple of years

SI

That's such a rerun. Let's watch something else.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

That's such a rerun. Let's watch something else.

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail

SI

[Ksyrup]

They were promised a red wave, and dammit, they are going to pretend like it happened because all they were geared up for was an overwhelming "mandate" to crucify the other side and when that didn't happen, they had nothing to fall back on.

In fact, in some ways, this is better for them (and us) because this allows them to continue playing the grievance-victim underdog which is all they know how to do, and we (hopefully) will see a further increase in the number of Americans tired of the BS in 2 years.

[Lathum]

The new line I keep hearing is they won "the popular vote" which is an odd thing to hear in a non presidential election

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The new line I keep hearing is they won "the popular vote" which is an odd thing to hear in a non presidential election

Yeah, saw a thread on this topic that revealed they had a dozen or so more candidates than the dems that ran entirely unopposed.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail

SI

so what are you saying? You want to nail boebert?

[Ghost Econ]

So William Timmons is my house Rep. He only has the job because his family bought it, literally the most important family in Greenville.

During election season, it came out he'd been serially cheating on his wife. The Democrats still likely wouldn't have a chance, but somehow a complete random ran because no one else would. Like I don't think the democratic party knew they had a candidate.

2 weeks after the affairs came out, the democrat challenger dropped out because he had too much to do at work. Basically made it so no one talked about the race or his affairs.

Timmons won re-election with ~90% of the vote (there was a pointless write in candidate for dems).

Today, his wife filed for irrevocable separation. I'd say it's highly unlikely he ever loses this seat now unless he quits to do something else.

Being a Democrat in a red state feels completely pointless.

[sterlingice]

It's a good thing we have such partisan gerrymandering so this sort of situation never happens, just like in Georgia with Greene

SI

[CrimsonFox]

time for obligatory joke of "sarah palin is so slow that it took her this long to lose the house seat"

[Edward64]

Interesting post-mortem from 538

Did Redistricting Cost Democrats The House? | FiveThirtyEight

By my reckoning, Democrats actually gained three seats from redistricting overall. In other words, without redistricting, Republicans’ majority would be closer to 225-210.

Still, let’s engage in a few of the most commonly cited what-ifs.

Over the past year and a half, Democrats have filed several lawsuits against Republican-drawn congressional maps, arguing that they are illegal partisan or racial gerrymanders. Some of these were successful, like in North Carolina. But most weren’t resolved in time to prevent the Republican-drawn maps from being used in 2022.

But what if they had been? Specifically, let’s pose a set of hypotheticals ... (long list)

In this world, Democrats probably would have won five more seats than they actually did.

The reality is, it’s impossible to say whether Democrats would have won the House in a world where no state was gerrymandered.

[b]But let’s also not lose sight of the bigger picture. Votes are still being counted in some states, but[b] it looks like Republicans won the national popular vote for the House by about 3 points. The national congressional map used in the 2022 election may not have been fair, but a map that gave Democrats the majority despite losing the popular vote definitely wouldn’t have been. So it’s somewhat beside the point whether redistricting cost Democrats the House: Republicans won the most votes, so the most democratic (lower-case “d”) outcome prevailed.

[Edward64]

Lot more demographic breakdown in the article. See that Obama is in town, that should help.

CNN Poll: Warnock holds a narrow edge over Walker in final undecided Senate contest | CNN Politics

Overall, 52% of likely voters say they plan to support Warnock in Tuesday’s runoff and 48% pick Walker. Partisans on both sides are deeply entrenched, with nearly all Democrats (99%) behind Warnock and 95% of Republicans backing Walker. Independents break in Warnock’s favor, 61% to 36%, but make up a relatively small slice of likely voters, 17%, compared with 24% in a CNN exit poll of voters in the first round of this contest last month.

White voters remain broadly behind Walker ahead of Tuesday’s election: 69% support him, with 30% backing Warnock, in the new poll, while Black voters likely to cast a ballot next week are near unanimous in their support for the Democrat (96% Warnock to 3% Walker).

There is also a wide age gap in the upcoming contest, with voters under 35 sharply behind Warnock (74% to 25%), while those 65 or older break in Walker’s favor by 26 points (63% to 37%).

[BYU 14]

The MAGA wins just keep coming

In Maricopa County, a federal court judge awarded sanctions in a "frivolous" lawsuit brought earlier this year by Kari Lake and Mark Finchem.

“Imposing sanctions in this case is not to ignore the importance of putting in place procedures to ensure that our elections are secure and reliable,” U.S. District Court John J. Tuchi wrote, in a brutal 30-page opinion. “It is to make clear that the court will not condone litigants ignoring the steps that Arizona has already taken toward this end and furthering false narratives that baselessly undermine public trust at a time of increasing disinformation about, and distrust in, the democratic process.”

[Lathum]

He is so good at this...

Obama: Mr. Walker has been talking about issues that are of great importance to the people of Georgia like if it’s better to be a vampire or a werewolf.. This is a debate that I must confess I once had myself.. when I was 7 pic.twitter.com/TonaibyZ1u

— Acyn (@Acyn) December 2, 2022

[Edward64]

Ready for Wed to get here.

I'm getting multiple flyers to vote every single, frakkin day. My wife has been getting a lot of text messages also. I've been blocking them and have not had one for the run-off so far.

Ready for Georgians to decide and let's move on.

[BYU 14]

And the irony of this Clowns statement below, is he is saying, you're dumb, Herschel is dumb, but he will do what we tell him, so idiots unite and elect him. You can't make this shit up.

Kennedy, while wearing a sticker reading “RUN HERSCHEL RUN,” railed against “these high IQ stupid people” running around Congress at a campaign stop in Loganville, Georgia, on Sunday afternoon. “These high IQ stupid people have an answer for everything. You know why? Because they think they’re smarter and more virtuous than the American people,” he said.

“These woke high IQ stupid people are easy to recognize. They hate George Washington. They hate Thomas Jefferson,” he said. “They hate Dr. Suess, and they hate Mr. Potato Head.”

To that end, the spud haters also, apparently, are going about their days carrying plastic bags full of hearty greens. “These high IQ stupid people walk around with ziplock bags of kale that they can eat to give them energy,” said Kennedy, who is notably an Oxford-educated lawyer pretending to be a regular man of the people. “If you want to eat kale, that’s up to you. I don’t eat kale. You know why? Kale tastes to me like I’d rather be fat.”

[Ksyrup]

Not to mention, if you put aside his 1890s folksy schtick, the dude is actually one of the elites he's railing against, except he doesn't like to eat healthy, I guess.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

And the irony of this Clowns statement below, is he is saying, you're dumb, Herschel is dumb, but he will do what we tell him, so idiots unite and elect him. You can't make this shit up.

These people are so weird. Like the whole rant against kale. I mean I get if people don't want to eat a vegetable or whatever, but how is that your political message? It just feels like guys who are really insecure about their masculinity.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

These people are so weird. Like the whole rant against kale. I mean I get if people don't want to eat a vegetable or whatever, but how is that your political message? It just feels like guys who are really insecure about their masculinity.

Everything with them is a culture war. People who eat kale are coastal left wing elitists who think they are better than the fried chicken eating hard working red blooded Americans.

[CrimsonFox]

fried chicken is gross!

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Not to mention, if you put aside his 1890s folksy schtick, the dude is actually one of the elites he's railing against

No one has more contempt for MAGA voters than the Ivy-educated politicians who pretend to be brain damaged squirrel hunters in order to pander to them.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

fried chicken is gross!

Using the 80-20 rule, you are obviously in the 20.

Fried Chicken popularity & fame | YouGov

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

No one has more contempt for MAGA voters than the Ivy-educated politicians who pretend to be brain damaged squirrel hunters in order to pander to them.

It must be so frustrating for these guys. Most of them are really smart, the MTGs of the world aside, and they have to pander to these knuckle draggers or lose their primary.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

fried chicken is gross!

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Everything with them is a culture war. People who eat kale are coastal left wing elitists who think they are better than the fried chicken eating hard working red blooded Americans.

Sitting here drinking my pre workout smoothie, that has Kale in it. I tried to emulsify Fried Chicken in my Nutribullet, bones kept getting in the way.

Maybe I can try some of that red light testicle therapy Tucker Carlson recommends to get my masculine male American card back.

[Lathum]

Warnock winning in early returns, so he should just declare himself the winner. Thats how it works, right?

[GrantDawg]

The good news is Warnock is winning by a wider margin in the early returns than he did in November. All trends looking great early.

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[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Warnock winning in early returns, so he should just declare himself the winner. Thats how it works, right?

Funny how Boebert won exactly like Biden but suddenly not a peep about any improprieties.

[Edward64]

Whew, finally here. Hope it gets called tonight

[Lathum]

I think it may get called in the next hour or so.

[GrantDawg]

Warnock actually is winning in some red counties in early voting. Wasn't the case in the November. This might be a huge win in the making.

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[Ksyrup]

Everything I'm seeing says this is going to be closer than Warnock wants.

[larrymcg421]

NYT needle has Warnock with 58% chance. Way closer than I'm comfortable with

[Ksyrup]

It looks like they are both underperforming, but Walker is underperforming by more.

[Edward64]

At least, if Walker loses, he won’t contest the results. And if he did, no one in GA will care

[Ksyrup]

Only because it will be 3 weeks until he figures out he lost.

[Ksyrup]

Overall, he's running ahead of our estimates for the election day vote by 5 points (he slightly underperformed in the early vote). We got early vote first, and now the election day vote is starting to get meaty enough to take seriously (300 precincts)

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 7, 2022

[larrymcg421]

Needle moving in Warnocks direction. 71% now

PredictIt even more bullish at 92%

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Only because it will be 3 weeks until he figures out he lost.

Difficult to contest GA results from his home in Texas

[GrantDawg]

95% of Dekalb hasn't been reported, and 75%of Cobb. I don't know what is holding up Dekalb, but that will probably tell the story.

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[GrantDawg]

Baldwin County has officially flipped from Red to Blue. It was +0.5 in November for Walker, tonight it went +.02 to Warnock.

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[GrantDawg]

The NYT needle just died. That sucker is annoying.

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[Edward64]

My county has about 53% in and Walker is winning but at about 3% less than mid-terms. It’ll be interesting if this pattern holds

[GrantDawg]

Dekalb just reported 43% of their votes, and the stare wide totals moved by 2% to Warnock.

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[GrantDawg]

Dave Wasserman says he has seen enough.

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[GrantDawg]

The thing is, this is totally a Trump-inflicted wound. If he hadn't gotten Walker to run, I think Gary Black probably would have pulled Kemp numbers over Warnock.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The thing is, this is totally a Trump-inflicted wound. If he hadn't gotten Walker to run, I think Gary Black probably would have pulled Kemp numbers over Warnock.

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Yeah. I heard earlier today something like 200K people voted Kemp but not Walker. That is staggering when you consider the times we live in.

Still amazing Walker is getting so many votes. I'm no senate historian but he has to be one of the worst candidates in history.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Yeah. I heard earlier today something like 200K people voted Kemp but not Walker. That is staggering when you consider the times we live in.

Still amazing Walker is getting so many votes. I'm no senate historian but he has to be one of the worst candidates in history.

Between that and Tuberville, the GOP needs to stop picking SEC footballers.

[Lathum]

Times has Warnock at greater than 95% now.