Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Poli]

I was convinced before the posting, if it helps. Cronin's newness in the game even before the erroneous post had me convinced.

Clearly it had to be you or him. If you were a villager, we'd have to go after him next. It just wasn't something I'd expect out a new player, much less a new "wolf". Especially considering they can PM each other about strategy.

[Neon_Chaos]

The cunning wolf will be seen as a werewolf by the seer. His ability of deception can only be done against the eyes of men.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I was convinced before the posting, if it helps. Cronin's newness in the game even before the erroneous post had me convinced.

Clearly it had to be you or him. If you were a villager, we'd have to go after him next. It just wasn't something I'd expect out a new player, much less a new "wolf". Especially considering they can PM each other about strategy.

you're might have been right, but we'll never know...just bitter I'm gone as I love playing in these games...no hard feelings all. I'll enjoy reading from here on out.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

you're might have been right, but we'll never know...just bitter I'm gone as I love playing in these games...no hard feelings all. I'll enjoy reading from here on out.

Just do the RA.


...


You'll find it's enjoying.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Just do the RA.


...


You'll find it's enjoying.

lol

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Yes, as well as all of the editing of posts.

First of all I did vote and I have not edited any of my posts. I was at work all day today, but will be home tomorrow during the middle of the day. I am a villager and any attempt to push towards me would be a waste of time. Remember, I was the one that guy the whole ball rolling by casting the very first vote since nobody was talking. Why would a wolf put himself out there like that?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I share st. cronin's surprise, I was sure that we were going to need to debate whether to actually trust in nailing the cunning wolf. That's a plus for us as we bagged a wolf and appear to have cleared st. cronin, but a minus in that it now appears certain that the attack last night turned the cursed.

[hoopsguy]

So do people think it is too early in the game to discuss circles of trust? Or do people think that having these conversations during the night shift is only of advantage to the wolves by helping them figure out a kill? This is a line of discussion I would like to pursue sometime soon although a run-away vote today doesn't bring much in the way of voting patterns.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think it's best to start that discussion after the night kill is over.

[Poli]

Heh, I don't know. I'd have to say I think Blade has done a nice job of analysis, as have you. I'm not certain I'd put either of you in my circle, but there it is.

The fact you voted for me in the first round puts you a little behind Blade.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I think it's best to start that discussion after the night kill is over.

Duly noted, I'll keep quiet now.

[hoopsguy]

Time to spend some time on the lovers aspect of the game and how I think it applies to the end-game.

1.) Do you think that there is only the one set of lovers defined by Cupid at the beginning of the game?
2.) If there is more than one set, then how many sets would NC have defined initially?
3.) If NC defined lovers prior to the Cupid role picking a set, then is a wolf part of a team?

My gut reaction:
1.) I hope there is only one set total, as defined by Cupid. Every set of lovers tilts the advantage further towards the wolves.
2.) I can't envision NC having assigned more than one set prior to Cupid.
3.) I would be surprised if NC tied a wolf an villager, although Cupid certainly could have done this. However, all of the wolves will have knowledge of who not to kill in the pair. This would set up a nasty scenario for them if one set of lovers is seer/cursed.


Current scorecard, assuming three starting wolves and a cursed conversion:
Villagers 11, Wolves 3

They will kill tonight. No witness, no herbalist = nothing hindering kill

Tomorrow is Villagers 10, Wolves 3 barring the death of lovers or an attack on the blessed. Chance of hitting lovers = 18% (or more, depending on above), chance of blessed facing a wolf attack = 9%

Worst case scenario - wolves hit lover tonight and seer is one of the set. That would be an absolute disaster.

Lets go out on a limb and say that we don't get a wolf with the lynch tomorrow. Nor does a lover or blessed end up getting revealed. I'm not sure how likely it is that all of those come to pass, but it is the most neutral result I can come up with for prognostication.

Villagers 9, Wolves 3

Wolves are still flying blind on who to kill but their odds for killing both lovers are climbing. Up to 22% at this point, although 11% that the blessed foils an attack.

Going into the next day if there is not a clear target supplied by the seer then it gets even more unlikely that one of the lovers (or the blessed, which would be less damaging) is not forced to reveal their nature to avoid a lynch. And the odds go up again for the wolves to pop two villagers for the price of one at night.

I'm bringing this up because I think we have a greater sense of urgency in this game than other WW games I've played due to the role of lovers. If there are two sets then I think we are in a world of hurt. If there is one then we absolutely must safeguard them during the day.

The meta-game considerations here are the development of circles of trust. Ultimately a united villager front works against the wolves when sound assumptions are made on who to include. The wolves have to take away trusted voices rather than hunting for roles that threaten them. Coffee Warlord and EaglesFan worked that strategy very well as wolves a couple of games back, much to my chagrin.

[hoopsguy]

AE, fwiw by the end of Day 1 I didn't think you represented a particularly good vote:

Post #218

If the group is satisfied with this course of action, and feels like the above points are not applicable/salient/whatever then I'll join in the bandwagon. AE is certainly not my leading suspect at this point.

Post #223

K, I'll refine - vote will stay on AE (for historical purposes) unless it looks like there is a need to switch.

I was out by the time the vote tightened up (final post was #274, deadline was post #290) - I'm pretty confident I would have tried to help shape our decision rather than just leaving it on you had I been around.

[SackAttack]

Wow.

Way to go, guys. Sorry I wasn't back in time to go over the thread, but covering the women's hoops practice ran past the deadline. Didn't expect that to happen.

At any rate, nice going. I'll be at work from, like, 3:30 to midnight tomorrow, so I'll try to get my vote in early. Hopefully that means we have enough to go on for my vote to be worth anything by then.

[RPI-Fan]

hoopsguy: There is also a fair(?) chance that Cupid picked at least one wolf in the pair of lovers.

I agree it helps the wolves and not us, but it's possible it could help us.

[hoopsguy]

Post #43 from Neon makes me think there is only the set of lovers selected by Cupid:

Yes, a Villager and a Werewolf might be lovers, or two Werewolves. Depends on who Cupid chooses at the beginning.

Note that this does not exclude him having a pre-defined set of lovers prior to Cupid but that does not fit my interpretation of the quote.

[Neon_Chaos]

You people read too much into my posts. Of course, there could also be some madman on the loose.

Muhahahahaha.

*waves cape in theatrical fashion and vanishes*

[st.cronin]

I agree the most likely explanation for what we have seen so far is that SnDvls was a wolf, and attacked somebody who was cursed. I can't come up with a reason for a non-cunning wolf to attack on the first night, unless they were gambling on the witness saving his ability.

[Neon_Chaos]

Last night, you heard an ear piercing scream, before it faded out into nothingness. You wake up, and start looking for anyone missing. Sure enough, you find the body of SirFozzie lying in the grass. His wounds are deep, his flesh torn from the bone. His face is contorted with fear. You search him for anything that would connect him to being a character of importance and find nothing.

It is at this moment that SirFozzie's body convulses. And as if by magic, the astral form of a small child appears before you. He speaks.

"The lovers are still well and alive, I see. Alas, the blessing and the curse cannot be seen by mortal eyes, but I have seen one rise to the heavens."

He frowns a bit, and then smiles as he then glances over everyone.

"There is but another blessed, and another cursed."

With his message given, Cupid emits a bright light which temporarily stuns everyone. When you open your eyes, he is gone, and so is SirFozzie's body. you could only imagine what his message meant.

SirFozzie has been killed!

It is now Day (3), voting deadline is at 8PM EST.

Player List:
SackAttack
st.cronin
kingfc22
Raiders Army
Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1.
hoopsguy
RPI-Fan
ardent enthusiast
pennywisesb
SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2
McSweeny
Mr. Wednesday
SirFozzie - Villager, killed Night 2
dubb93
Barkeep49

[hoopsguy]

OK, I know that someone is usually tasked with tracking the voting patterns. I figured I would try to chart activity as another metric to review. Not as telling, but I feel that it is worth capturing.

I started at Post #44, which runs from the role reveals up to the Night 0 death of Neon Chaos was announced at Post #136. There were no votes allowed in this but discussion did ensue and some pre-votes were cast:

Raiders Army - 12
Hoopsguy - 9
Ardent Enthusiast - 1
Barkeep49 - 7
Passacaglia - 1
SnDvls - 1
StCronin - 5
Pennywiseb - 3
SackAttack - 6
RPIFan - 6
MrWednesday - 2 (not yet in game, replaces Schmidty later)
McSweeny - 5
Schmidty - 5
Blade 6119 - 11
SirFozzie - 4
Dubb93 - 4
Kingfc22 - 6
Neon Chaos - 2
Flounder - 1 (not in game, but a fun side discussion)
Saldana - 1 (not in game)

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 - posts 137-290

SirFozzie - 1
Schmidty - 2 (bows out of game)
Ardent Enthusiast - 4
Dubb93 - 5
StCronin - 4
Neon Chaos - 1
RPIFan - 12
Kingfc22 - 2
McSweeny - 14
Passacaglia - 19
Blade6119 - 15
SnDvls - 3
Hoopsguy - 5
Mr Wednesday - 5
Coffee Warlord - 1 (OOG)
Sack Attack - 1
Raiders Army - 5
Pennywiseb - 2
Barkeep - 2
SirFozzie - 2

[hoopsguy]

Post #291 - 335 are between the Day 1 voting deadline and the announcement that we have lynched the herbalist:

Blade - 24
McSweeny - 4
RPI - 5
Fozzie - 5
Pass - 1
Barkeep - 3
Cronin - 1
AE - 1
Neon - 1

And there were very few Night 1 posts (336-340)

Blade - 1
Cronin - 1
Foz - 1
RPI - 1
Neon - 1

[RPI-Fan]

So what the heck happened with SirFozzie... per N_C's player list, he isn't cupid... but was there another pair of lovers created upon SirFozzie's death -- a blessed, and a cursed?

[hoopsguy]

Day 2 - posts 341-489. This is where I've stopped my review for the night, will pick this up tomorrow if people think this is interesting.

Dubb - 10
McSweeny - 4
Cronin - 17
JonInGA - 1 (OOG)
Foz - 6
RPI - 14
Blade - 17
Ardent - 7
Wednesday - 17
Sack - 3
King - 1
Neon - 3
Raiders - 12
Barkeep - 5
SnDvls - 15
Penny - 12
Hoops - 4

[dubb93]

Someone needs to get Neon off the crack. Anyone make any sense of what just happened?

[Barkeep49]

I believe Fozzie WAS cupid. I thought it was said that after doing his bit Cupid became normal. And we don't know yet if there are roles revealed from the night time kill as the rules are silent on that issue. If the Wolves had done what I expected and killed Cronin (having known humans running around is not good for the wolves) we'd have known more about this.

[hoopsguy]

That's great - Neon says we read too much into his posts and then tries to be as cryptic as can be. Pick a lane, moderator!

I think Fozzie was cupid from the description. I think that there is a blessed and a cursed still alive. I'm not sure what this means in terms of the night 1 activity.

I think this was about as best-case as tonight could be for the villagers, unless you are SirFozzie.

[Barkeep49]

Best case for villagers would be for the wolves to have attacked the Blessed.

[Neon_Chaos]

Clarification since it seems people are having a hard time:

*Supplementary roles will NOT be revealed (Blessed, Cursed, Cupid) until end of game
*The Blessed can thwart one Night Time attack, and will be given a 2nd chance. If he is attacked by the Brutal Wolf when the Brutal Wolf is lynched, he will NOT be saved.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

That's great - Neon says we read too much into his posts and then tries to be as cryptic as can be. Pick a lane, moderator!

I think Fozzie was cupid from the description. I think that there is a blessed and a cursed still alive. I'm not sure what this means in terms of the night 1 activity.

I think this was about as best-case as tonight could be for the villagers, unless you are SirFozzie.

Agree. At least that means I don't have to worry about codeine addled posts tommorrow (Godddam do I hurt).

Good luck Villagers.. Kick the Wolvies ass

[Poli]

Sorry Fozzie.

[dubb93]

Lets move the game chat along. I have 2 people in mind as potential wolves right now.

1. McSweeny: His day one actions we weird, and he seemed to throw his vote which ever way the bandwagon went.

2. Kingfc22: Staying under the radar the entire time. Seems almost like he wants us not to notice him. There is always 1 wolf doing this and I have a feeling it may be King.

To get things rolling for the day I'll

VOTE KINGFC22

[RPI-Fan]

I've got work 6am-11am tomorrow, test 12pm-2pm, and then driving to Central New York for the weekend. I may have internet access Friday/Saturday night, so hopefully I do.

But in case not, kingfc22 seems as likely as any at this point to be a wolf.

VOTE KINGFC22

[Mr. Wednesday]

RIP Foz.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I feel like we're almost back at Day 1. In this game instead of having 15 players we have 12. So I'm going to throw something out there based on intuition and what I said back on Day 1, only now with more evidence. I hope people will look carefully at the situation and what I present.

I have quite a bit of experience playing the Wolf. It's a fun role. But more importantly, when playing a villager I think it gives me special insight into how wolves act. And what I know above all is that a smart wolf tries to blend in. What better way to blend in then to post just enough to seem like you're helping the team while you're really not doing anything?

I think this is what dubb has done. His whole investigation into Flouder? A really smart ploy. After all what are the odds that someone would have gone to the trouble to register a name back in MARCH (before we even started playing werewolf) so that they could use it now to look at the game secretly? It's guarenteed to result in nothing but Dubb did the "work" anyway.

Then there was today. He was, outright, a SnDvls apologist. Doing such things as saying

Originally Posted by Dubb

Neon likes to get creative with his PM's. Prehaps St. Cronin is mis-reading it? It may not be as likely as one of either him or SnDvls flat out telling a lie, but this is Cronin's first game and he could be mis-reading the PM.

and

Originally Posted by dubb

But being cursed and turning into a wolf does not involve death, which would have rendered your view worthless. The only way your story works is if the blessed was attacked and killed and then brought back to life.

Well no that isn't the only way his story works as the evidence has now shown. What is more interesting is that earlier in the day he saw things a different way

Originally Posted by dubb

It appears we have another wolf among us. My guess is the cursed was hit.

Why did he change his story? I think it's pretty clear now that a cursed was hit on night 1. A wolf would have known this. Again pointing out things like this, which obstensibly help the villagers while not really saying anything, are something that a wolf does.

There is something else, but want to see what dubb says first.

VOTE DUBB

[RPI-Fan]

Fuck this... I'll get up a little bit extra early tomorrow, and check the thread before I leave for work...

UNVOTE KINGFC22

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

I've got work 6am-11am tomorrow, test 12pm-2pm, and then driving to Central New York for the weekend. I may have internet access Friday/Saturday night, so hopefully I do.

But in case not, kingfc22 seems as likely as any at this point to be a wolf.

VOTE KINGFC22

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Fuck this... I'll get up a little bit extra early tomorrow, and check the thread before I leave for work...

UNVOTE KINGFC22

?? Ive already posted my list of mistrust, and ill repost it again(in order):
RPI
Mcsweeney
Hoopsguy
King(soley on lack of participation from a usually active guy)
dubb is hovering around the list

I just dont get RPI at all this game, and thats why he and mcsweeney are at the top of my list...both keep making odd moves...i was right on sundvls, but im not sure where to go now

I will say though that going after king right now isnt the best bet, leave him for later(hell, if hes the last wolf no night kills will happen). Id say try and root out the ones buried inside, the ones no ones looking at...but thats just me, and thats my list of people id look at if i was seer(neon never gives me a damn fun role!)

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Best case for villagers would be for the wolves to have attacked the Blessed.

i cant imagine a sitaution where someone was blessed and hasnt come forward...what possibly would be the point? Bar it being king, which they wouldnt have killed anyways....killing fozzie makes me think their targeting the supposedly smarter players first(meaning im never dying )...that makes me inclined to think someone like hoopsguy, sackattack, or ardent went...

Hmmmm, ardent said he liked my train of thought....somethings wrong there...

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

"The lovers are still well and alive, I see. Alas, the blessing and the curse cannot be seen by mortal eyes, but I have seen one rise to the heavens."

He frowns a bit, and then smiles as he then glances over everyone.

"There is but another blessed, and another cursed."[/b]

My interpretation of this is:
The one that rose to the heavens was the cursed night one, there is still another blessed and another cursed...the two fozzie picked are alive, which makes you have to wonder about who fozzie thinks are good players...basically, it doesnt tell us much...it does tell me they could hit another bloody cursed though and we could be beyond screwed

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

First of all I did vote and I have not edited any of my posts. I was at work all day today, but will be home tomorrow during the middle of the day. I am a villager and any attempt to push towards me would be a waste of time. Remember, I was the one that guy the whole ball rolling by casting the very first vote since nobody was talking. Why would a wolf put himself out there like that?

As a side note, since hes been off soo much so far, he says he will be home tomorrow..if he doesnt post at least a couple times i say we look in his direction...but not until then...not enough to go on right now in my humble opinion

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So do people think it is too early in the game to discuss circles of trust? Or do people think that having these conversations during the night shift is only of advantage to the wolves by helping them figure out a kill? This is a line of discussion I would like to pursue sometime soon although a run-away vote today doesn't bring much in the way of voting patterns.

i think we should...if anything it will help us at least try and set up a crumb trail...fozzies death tells us nothing...we cant afford too many of those...and after everyone bandwagoned onto sundvls after an intital debate we dont have much there either...unless you want to look long and hard on the late votes or the people who intitally tried to help sun(like RPI!) then switched when the PM came out

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Nice job, all!

Weird play by team wolf - why have the regular wolf as the executioner? The cunning wolf would create dissention. The brutal wolf would take someone with him.

Well, we no longer have a herbalist or a witness so the seer is of paramount importance now. I would urge whoever has this role to try and steer conversation towards a wolf without revealing your role. Blade, please make sure to add this to any quotes you might have suggesting that I'm trying to "out" the special villagers. Is that un-subtle enough?

My understandi9ng of the game is they all attack, you dont get to pick which wolf does the work...witness only sees one though...happens like that in every game...

As for the comment, i understand your saying that, and i would like to reassure the seer to not come out, even a little...make small comments if you know something, but do not even hint at your role.

As for hoops, you saying that cant alleviate what i feel about your comments earlier...your not up with rpi and mcsweeney, but it just seemed out of character for you to make commnets the way you did..sorry if that doesnt please you, but for now i look at you with a leary eye

[Blade6119]

i just noticed i always make like 6 posts in a row...sorry about that annoying tendency guys

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

My understandi9ng of the game is they all attack, you dont get to pick which wolf does the work...witness only sees one though...happens like that in every game...

In this game, the rules that state that one wolf must PM Neon with the target, and that wolf will be responsible for the kill.

[dubb93]

Barkeep49, I'd love to hear what more you have. I tried to go with the Flounder thing on day 1 as it COULD have been something. I didn't look at his join date, but nobody is perfect...as for everything else you said...

Yes I was trying to see SNDVLS point of view, as I've been the victim of a "fake" witness myself. Once Blade brought up a PM being posted, I realized I may have been wrong. And yes, I did assume a cursed was hit RIGHT after the vote and before St. Cronin posted, but after he posted I used the rules of the game. Not my fault they seem to be changing on the fly....lets take a closer look at the rules....

Witness - As a one-time skill, you may choose to view the killing of an innocent during the night. If noone is killed, then you waste your view.

According to that night action no one was killed, so I looked at the other possible situations and found these...

Cursed - You are cursed, and have been so since birth. If bitten by a werewolf, you will join their ranks. Of course, you will not know that you are cursed until you are bitten by a wolf.
Blessed - You are blessed, and have been so since birth. If bitten by a werewolf, you will be granted a second chance at life. You do not know that you are blessed until bitten by a werewolf... note that this does not save you from lynching.

Looking at death being something that HAD to happen according to the rules for the witness role to work I ruled out a cursed hit. Since it says you are bitten and join the ranks, you do not die. After you are blessed, you are granted "a second chance at life." I took that to mean you die and come back.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

In this game, the rules that state that one wolf must PM Neon with the target, and that wolf will be responsible for the kill.

my fault, i stand corrected

[kingfc22]

Ok, so day 2 gives us nothing. I went back and was re-reading day 1 posts and RPI's posts just scream "I am a wolf". Then when dubb throws a vote my way tonight, he is right there to jump on it because he knows I'm a villager.

The wolves knew that Passacaglia was probably telling the truth and even if he wasn't if I was a wolf I'd make sure he was lynched on day 1 just in case. So with that. I cast my vote tonight and I highly doubt it will change, but we'll see what tomorrow has in store.

VOTE RPI-FAN

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

As a side note, since hes been off soo much so far, he says he will be home tomorrow..if he doesnt post at least a couple times i say we look in his direction...but not until then...not enough to go on right now in my humble opinion

Its the same thing RPI did in a game though. He was never there more than to post 1 post a day, and it was always his post. And he ALWAYS had a good excuse for not being there. In the end he was a wolf and bragged about playing the strong silent game. I see this possibly being true with King and I fear we may put off voting him and keep putting it off and he's there in the end to eat us.

[dubb93]

DOLA: The above post should read "He was never there more than to post 1 post a day, and it was always his voting post."

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Ok, so day 2 gives us nothing. I went back and was re-reading day 1 posts and RPI's posts just scream "I am a wolf". Then when dubb throws a vote my way tonight, he is right there to jump on it because he knows I'm a villager.

The wolves knew that Passacaglia was probably telling the truth and even if he wasn't if I was a wolf I'd make sure he was lynched on day 1 just in case. So with that. I cast my vote tonight and I highly doubt it will change, but we'll see what tomorrow has in store.

VOTE RPI-FAN

Yea, RPI is acting crazy. But he's still a notch below your silent game and McSweeny's crazy game.

My list of suspects is as follows in order:
1. KingFC
2. McSweeny
3. RPI-Fan