WW CLVII - Ghostbusters - Game Over (result in post 1521)

[Danny]

I am getting a little wolfsy vibe from hoopsy

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I am getting a little wolfsy vibe from hoopsy

Me too.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think Gozer endgame is endgame for us if we don't have a couple of proton packs to cross streams with ... which makes it pretty important to safeguard those last remaining roled villagers somehow.

As far as their "find" each other logic ... would be cool if JAG clued us in on if both being converted was sufficient, or if there are extra steps. Not counting on it, but I guess consider this an official question on the matter.

Given the ghosts have a chance to convert two players, does it seem fair that they would have three starting members? If so, I would think they could not do both night kill and convert on same evening ... that would seem somewhat unbalanced. Definitely not expecting JAG to chime in on the train of thought in this paragraph, just trying to work it out for myself.

I assume their night kill functions as a convert if they target the right person. That would be the standard way.

[Autumn]

In fact, I like that more than my random vote on Mauchow.

unvote mauchow
vote hoopsguy

[Danny]

unvote coffee warlord
vote hoopsguy

[Danny]

I do have to say though, I am currently 12th in total posts, and that is pretty suspicious!

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Danny

I do have to say though, I am currently 12th in total posts, and that is pretty suspicious!

well get to it,chop chop

[Coffee Warlord]

That's why Danny keeps voting me. He clearly is jealous of my posting prowess.

[KatyLied]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, I see KatyLied viewing the thread so hopefully that means she will be playing and won't need to be replaced.

Heading out for a few hours. Will rejoin the conversation, and get a vote down, prior to the night deadline.

I'm here I'm here! Just catching up on my reading. My goodness y'all are prolific.

[Danny]

Yes, I need to eliminate all players with more posts than me.

[Coffee Warlord]

A duel, then!

[Danny]

Admittedly, it is harder to artificially boost my post total without CrimsonFox around. He was like the steroids to my barry bonds

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yes, I need to eliminate all players with more posts than me.

well according to you that's going to take a while...

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chubby

well according to you that's going to take a while...

Well, this can be done in combination with post spamming.

[Danny]

For example, with this post I move into 9th place.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Danny

For example, with this post I move into 9th place.

Note to self, learn how to figure out who is posting the most...

[Danny]

On the main werewolf page, next to the thread link it has a number that shows the number of thread replies, click that link and a window pops showing the totals.

[KatyLied]

Vote Lathum

I found #445 persuasive. Hard to vote without creating a tie, so.....

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day One

20:43 #46 Lathum votes Autumn (1)
20:51 #49 Coffee votes Danny (1)
02:35 #57 Narcizo votes DaddyTorgo (1)
09:30 #68 Autumn votes Lathum (1)
09:43 #69 Britrock votes Chubby (1)

11:05 #75 Packer votes Autumn (2)
11:15 #76 Bhlloy votes Packer (1)
11:43 #82 murrayyyyy votes Coffee (1)
12:34 #85 mauchow votes Danny (2)
12:47 #89 Danny votes Lathum (2)

13:09 #91 Coffee unvotes Danny (1)
13:34 #95 Hoops votes DaddyTorgo (2)
14:13 #99 Coffee votes Packers (2)
14:32 #108 Chubby votes Mau (1)
15:54 #114 Pass votes Mau (2)
15:58 #119 Coffee unvotes Packers (1)
15:58 #119 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (3)
15:59 #120 mau unvotes Danny (0)

16:07 #127 Mau votes Coffee (2)
16:15 #129 fontisian votes Lathum (3)
17:18 #134 britrock unvotes Chubby (0)
17:18 #134 britrock votes Coffee (3)
17:24 #137 Lathum unvotes Autumn (1)
17:24 #137 Lathum votes mau (3)
17:46 #139 Bhlloy unvotes Packers (0)
17:46 #139 Bhlloy votes Lathum (4)
17:53 #140 Lathum unvotes Mau (2)
17:53 #140 Lathum votes Coffee (4)

18:04 #146 Coffee unvotes DaddyTorgo (2)
18:04 #146 Coffee votes mau (3)
18:31 #150 Lathum unvotes Coffee (3)
18:31 #150 Lathum votes mau (4)
18:53 #160 Packer unvotes Autumn (0)
18:53 #161 Packers votes Coffee (4)
19:22 #171 Zinto votes Lathum (5)
19:58 #182 Mau unvotes Coffee (3)
19:58 #182 Mau votes DaddyTorgo (3)

20:00 #187 Danny unvotes Lathum (4)
20:00 #187 Danny votes DaddyTorgo (4)
20:02 #189 Lathum unvotes Mau (3)
20:02 #189 Lathum votes DaddyTorgo (5)
20:05 #199 DaddyTorgo votes Lathum (5)
20:28 #208 Coffee unvotes mau (2)
20:28 #208 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (6)
20:29 #210 Daddy unvotes Lathum (4)
20:29 #210 Daddy votes Coffee (4)

20:50 #232 Brit unvotes Coffee (3)
20:50 #232 Brit votes Lathum (5)
20:50 #233 Daddy unvotes Coffee (2)
20:50 #233 Daddy votes Lathum (6)
20:53 #241 Zinto unvotes Lathum (5)
20:53 #241 Zinto votes Daddy (7)
20:57 #265 Chubby unvotes mau (1)
20:57 #265 Chubby votes Daddy (8)

So we have four people who placed votes yesterday and didn't move them in Narcizo, Autumn, Murayyyyy, and Packer. Muray and Packer also had throwaway votes to go along with Pass. So I believe I am going to vote for one of them.

[Danny]

Zinto, any reason you left Hoops off of that list?

[Zinto]

Nope other then I did not catch he had stuck his vote and didn't change, because I zoned out a few times when writing that post.

[JAG]

Coffee Warlord 3 - Chubby (356), Passacaglia (465), PackerFanatic (496)
hoopsguy 3 - fontisian (481), Autumn (504), Danny (505)
Lathum 3 - mauchow (423), murra5y (445), KatyLied
murra5y 2 - Coffee Warlord (431), Narcizo (441)
Autumn 1 - Lathum (326)
mauchow 1 - bhlloy (386)

No vote: hoopsguy, Zinto

[Zinto]

Actually I am going to vote for Hoops and see how he votes and I assume get movement from bhlloy and Lathum.

Vote Hoops

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Danny

Admittedly, it is harder to artificially boost my post total without CrimsonFox around. He was like the steroids to my barry bonds

I think he will be back soon, he posted on pcjbl that he was boxed for three months and will be back in April at some point. Well I hope he comes back, it is a lot more quiet with out CF posting CF things.

[bhlloy]

I'm back on after getting home

Let's see... go with the theory that one of CW and Lathum are a wolf, in the hope that yesterday means something? Or go with hoops and murray based off reads that people have presumably made today? I need to go back and catch up... watch this space

[bhlloy]

So hoops and Murray seem to have quite a nice two man game, bounce suggestions off each other thing going on today. Seems too blatant to be a wolf play. Hoops comes out very strongly in favor of murray at post 457 when he wasn't in the lead and was one of a bunch with votes. If that's a wolf play to save a buddy it's pretty dumb. I have to admit I don't see what you are seeing here

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So hoops and Murray seem to have quite a nice two man game, bounce suggestions off each other thing going on today. Seems too blatant to be a wolf play. Hoops comes out very strongly in favor of murray at post 457 when he wasn't in the lead and was one of a bunch with votes. If that's a wolf play to save a buddy it's pretty dumb. I have to admit I don't see what you are seeing here

I actually agree with Hoops about Murrayyy not being a wolf, and it's also a post I would make if I was a wolf.

[bhlloy]

unvote mau
vote CW

I'm going with my gut from yesterday on this one, I also don't think being tied with 90 minutes left is a bad thing. I don't see hoops or murray as being great candidates based on anything today. I'd much rather learn something about yesterday, and I have a lot of questions about the run off CW/Mau and onto DT

[Lathum]

unvote autumn

[Coffee Warlord]

A vote for Coffee is a vote for Scottish cooking.

[bhlloy]

I love haggis, so I guess I'm on the right track

[hoopsguy]

Well, I guess I'll move into self-defense mode for voting at this point. Would have preferred to have discussions about my "wolf vibe" when I was around to respond in real time rather than in the window of time I announced I would be out, but so be it.

What are you seeing that is wolfish? Discussions around how Gozer might work? Asking people to qualify their votes? I'm kind of confused, so hoping someone who is driving that bus will respond.

[hoopsguy]

My smartest defense move would be to vote Murray, putting three people one vote behind me. CW could still switch to me and put me two in front, and would likely do that in self-defense mode (or wolf mode). But I'm pretty convinced murray isn't a wolf and I think there are more probable shots than Lathum based on his Day 1 reveal. So I would really prefer another candidate, other than the obvious Coffee Warlord vote which has seemed to ebb and flow throughout the day.

[Lathum]

Vote CW

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

My smartest defense move would be to vote Murray, putting three people one vote behind me. CW could still switch to me and put me two in front, and would likely do that in self-defense mode (or wolf mode). But I'm pretty convinced murray isn't a wolf and I think there are more probable shots than Lathum based on his Day 1 reveal. So I would really prefer another candidate, other than the obvious Coffee Warlord vote which has seemed to ebb and flow throughout the day.

I am not a fan of you or CW so I am willing to discuss other options.

I would still like some pressure on Autumn as I think he is the likliest candidate for a wolf on me.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum based on his Day 1 reveal..

"I am a vanilla villager" is a day 1 reveal now?

[hoopsguy]

Figure I'll give people 15 minutes to respond here before making the obligatory defense move on CW. But I really do think that will create a two man race and I'm not convinced that is a winning scenario ... I tend to favor the three person race if we don't have and either/or wolf scenario teed up.

I know you don't learn a lot by voting for me, and we already had CW in the run-off yesterday so either we have villager/villager or villager/wolf where the wolf already has provided voting data yesterday. So if I have to be in a run-off, my slight preference would be to have it be with someone (not murra5y) who was not in the runoff yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

"I am a vanilla villager" is a day 1 reveal now?

"You are better off lynched me than a roled villager" when you have 4-5 votes on you, maybe an hour before deadline, is something that I tend to notice more than the "glad to be playing, vanilla checking in" post.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Figure I'll give people 15 minutes to respond here before making the obligatory defense move on CW. But I really do think that will create a two man race and I'm not convinced that is a winning scenario ... I tend to favor the three person race if we don't have and either/or wolf scenario teed up.

I know you don't learn a lot by voting for me, and we already had CW in the run-off yesterday so either we have villager/villager or villager/wolf where the wolf already has provided voting data yesterday. So if I have to be in a run-off, my slight preference would be to have it be with someone (not murra5y) who was not in the runoff yesterday.

Why not murraaaaayyyyyy?

I wouldn't consider cw in the runoff yesterday, it was dt and lathum wasn't it? (Posting from phone)

[Coffee Warlord]

Here's one problem I have (beside the fact I'm IN the contention, but I digress).

There's a lot of people that seem to be convinced that me or Lathum (or, to a lesser extent, mau) is a wolf, based on the fact that we were up for voting Day 1, and a lot of people moved around.

Are we really thinking we're that freakin' lucky that we came close to hitting a wolf on day 1? And all of a sudden day 1 vote insanity is actually taken THAT seriously? C'mon.

[Chubby]

Vote count?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chubby

Why not murraaaaayyyyyy?

I wouldn't consider cw in the runoff yesterday, it was dt and lathum wasn't it? (Posting from phone)

Posted that logic earlier in thread - his questions about night kills being posted really fast (this is his first 'single phase' game) suggests that he doesn't quite get how actions are processed in this game. Which suggests he is not part of "team wolf" who would help coach him on this. The original post was a bit longer than this, can pull the post # if you like. But if you are posting from phone, it would probably be a pain for you to reference anyway.

[Lathum]

I'm willing to buy into Hoops logicfor Murray5Y.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Posted that logic earlier in thread - his questions about night kills being posted really fast (this is his first 'single phase' game) suggests that he doesn't quite get how actions are processed in this game. Which suggests he is not part of "team wolf" who would help coach him on this. The original post was a bit longer than this, can pull the post # if you like. But if you are posting from phone, it would probably be a pain for you to reference anyway.

Nah that's good, I remember the post now.

I still don't remember cw being part of the tossup at deadline tho

[mauchow]

CW - 5
Hoops - 4
Lathum - 2
Murrayyyy - 2

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

6 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95), mauchow (182), Danny (187), Lathum (189), Coffee Warlord (208)
4 Lathum - Autumn (68), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), Zinto (171)
4 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), britrock (134), PackerFanatic (161), DaddyTorgo (210)
2 mauchow - Chubby (108), Passacaglia (114)

Have not voted: KatyLied

This was 14 minutes before deadline last night.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Chubby

Nah that's good, I remember the post now.

I still don't remember cw being part of the tossup at deadline tho

I went from being up there to being not up there in rapid fashion.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Here's one problem I have (beside the fact I'm IN the contention, but I digress).

There's a lot of people that seem to be convinced that me or Lathum (or, to a lesser extent, mau) is a wolf, based on the fact that we were up for voting Day 1, and a lot of people moved around.

Are we really thinking we're that freakin' lucky that we came close to hitting a wolf on day 1? And all of a sudden day 1 vote insanity is actually taken THAT seriously? C'mon.

My thoughts on D1 is that they are random until they are not. We don't have enough info to really tell just yet, but absent other data points I think we all should be at least considering the votes/posts with the hope that there was meaning behind them.

Assuming there are two starting wolves, the chances of a 4 villager showdown (pure math) = 15/17 * 14/16 * 13/15 * 12/14 = 32760/57120 = 57.3%

But if we have three starting wolves, then the numbers read = 14/17 * 13/16 * 12/15 * 11/14 = 24024/57120 = 42.1%

So that is why the conversation about "starting assumptions" is kind of important ... it helps assess risk. I'm usually pretty bad at the gut part of the game, so I lean on math more than most.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Here's one problem I have (beside the fact I'm IN the contention, but I digress).

There's a lot of people that seem to be convinced that me or Lathum (or, to a lesser extent, mau) is a wolf, based on the fact that we were up for voting Day 1, and a lot of people moved around.

Are we really thinking we're that freakin' lucky that we came close to hitting a wolf on day 1? And all of a sudden day 1 vote insanity is actually taken THAT seriously? C'mon.

How is this any less lucky then getting a ghostbuster and the guy who could be converted the first day?

[Autumn]

On my iPad, not able to post much and maybe asleep soon. Just a gut thing hoops, not something you said specifically. The fact that Danny got it at the same time makes me think he was reading the same thing.